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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 559 records · Page 31
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Intensified Soil Moisture Extremes Decrease Soil Organic Carbon Decomposition: A Mechanistic Modeling Analysis

Earth system models have predicted that there will be more frequent and severe precipitation and drought events in terrestrial ecosystems. Microbially mediated decomposition of soil organic carbon (SOC) tends to increase as soils wet and decrease as soils dry. However, the long-term SOC change under intensified moisture extremes remains poorly known as it depends on the frequency and intensity of soil drying and wetting. In this study, we explored long-term SOC dynamics under scenarios of alternating drying-wetting cycles using the Microbial-ENzyme Decomposition model, a mechanistic microbial model. The model was parameterized with 11 years of observations from a temperate deciduous broadleaf forest site, showing satisfactory model performance in both model calibration (R 2 = 0.67) and validation (R 2 = 0.69) against heterotrophic respiration. We then used the model to simulate the long-term SOC dynamics under five scenarios of alternating drying-wetting cycles with different frequencies and severities over a period of 100 years. Results showed that the changes in active microbial biomass C and the corresponding turnover rates of SOC pools were more sensitive to soil drying than soil wetting. As a result, the cumulative soil carbon emission from microbial respiration decreased by 433.7 g C m -2 after the 100-year simulation in the highest frequency and intensity moisture scenario, but was not significantly affected by the lowest frequency and intensity scenario. This study emphasizes the nonlinear response of SOC decomposition to soil moisture changes, which causes decreased decomposition by microbes under drying that is, not compensated by increased decomposition under wetting conditions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Simulated Hydrological Dynamics and Coupled Iron Redox Cycling Impact Methane Production in an Arctic Soil

The fate of organic carbon (C) in permafrost soils is important to the climate system due to the large global stocks of permafrost C. Thawing permafrost can be subject to dynamic hydrology, making redox processes an important factor controlling soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition rates and greenhouse gas production. In iron (Fe)-rich permafrost soils, Fe(III) can serve as a terminal electron acceptor, promoting anaerobic respiration of SOM and increasing pH. Current large-scale models of Arctic C cycling do not include Fe cycling or pH interactions. Here, a geochemical reaction model was developed by coupling Fe redox reactions and C cycling to simulate SOM decomposition, Fe(III) reduction, pH dynamics, and greenhouse gas production in permafrost soils subject to dynamic hydrology. In this study we parameterized the model using measured CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes as well as changes in pH, Fe(II), and dissolved organic C concentrations from oxic and anoxic incubations of permafrost soils from polygonal permafrost sites in northern Alaska, United States. In simulations of repeated oxic-anoxic cycles, Fe(III) reduction during anoxic periods enhanced CO 2 production, while the net effect of Fe(III) reduction on cumulative CH 4 fluxes depended on substrate C availability. With lower substrate availability, Fe(III) reduction decreased total CH 4 production by further limiting available substrate. With higher substrate availability, Fe(III) reduction enhanced CH 4 production by increasing pH. Our results suggest that interactions among Fe-redox reactions, pH and methanogenesis are important factors in predicting CH 4 and CO 2 production as well as SOM decomposition rates in Fe-rich, frequently waterlogged Arctic soils.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Thermal Experiments for Fractured Rock Characterization: Theoretical Analysis and Inverse Modeling

Abstract Field‐scale properties of fractured rocks play a crucial role in many subsurface applications, yet methodologies for identification of the statistical parameters of a discrete fracture network (DFN) are scarce. We present an inversion technique to infer two such parameters, fracture density and fractal dimension, from cross‐borehole thermal experiments data. It is based on a particle‐based heat‐transfer model, whose evaluation is accelerated with a deep neural network (DNN) surrogate that is integrated into a grid search. The DNN is trained on a small number of the heat‐transfer model runs and predicts the cumulative density function of the thermal field. The latter is used to compute fine posterior distributions of the (to be estimated) parameters. Our synthetic experiments reveal that fracture density is well constrained by data, while fractal dimension is harder to determine. Adding nonuniform prior information related to the DFN connectivity improves the inference of this parameter.

Zhou, Zitong↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimating the Likelihood of GHG Concentration Scenarios From Probabilistic Integrated Assessment Model Simulations

The climate scenarios that form the basis for current climate risk assessments have no assigned probabilities, and this impedes the analysis of future climate risks. This paper proposes an approach to estimate the probability of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration scenarios used in key climate change modeling experiments. It computes the CO 2 emissions compatible with the concentrations prescribed by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and CMIP6 experiments. The distribution of these compatible cumulative emissions is interpreted as the likelihood of future emissions given a concentration pathway. Using Bayesian analysis, the probability of each pathway can be estimated from a probabilistic sample of future emissions. The approach is demonstrated with five probabilistic CO 2 emission simulation ensembles from four Integrated Assessment Models (IAM), leading to independent estimates of the likelihood of the CO 2 concentration of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). Results suggest that SSP5-8.5 is unlikely for the second half of the 21st century, but offer no clear consensus on which of the remaining scenarios is most likely. Estimates of likelihoods of CO 2 concentrations associated with RCP and SSP scenarios are affected by sampling errors, differences in emission sources simulated by the IAMs, and a lack of a common experimental framework for IAM simulations. These shortcomings, along with a small IAM ensemble size, limit the applicability of the results presented here. Novel joint IAM and the Earth System Model experiments are needed to deliver actionable probabilistic climate risk assessments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Temporal Trends of Racial and Socioeconomic Disparities in Population Exposures to Upstream Oil and Gas Development in California

People living near oil and gas development are exposed to multiple environmental stressors that pose health risks. Some studies suggest these risks are higher for racially and socioeconomically marginalized people, which may be partly attributable to disparities in exposures. We examined whether racially and socioeconomically marginalized people in California are disproportionately exposed to oil and gas wells and associated hazards. We longitudinally assessed exposure to wells during three time periods (2005–2009, 2010–2014, and 2015–2019) using sociodemographic data at the census block group‐level. For each block group and time period, we assessed exposure to new, active, retired, and plugged wells, and cumulative production volume. We calculated risk ratios to determine whether marginalized people disproportionately resided near wells (within 1 km). Averaged across the three time periods, we estimated that 1.1 million Californians (3.0%) lived within 1 km of active wells. Nearly 9 million Californians (22.9%) lived within 1 km of plugged wells. The proportion of Black residents near active wells was 42%–49% higher than the proportion of Black residents across California, and the proportion of Hispanic residents near active wells was 4%–13% higher than their statewide proportion. Disparities were greatest in areas with the highest oil and gas production, where the proportion of Black residents was 105%–139% higher than statewide. Socioeconomically marginalized residents also had disproportionately high exposure to wells. Though oil and gas production has declined in California, marginalized communities persistently had disproportionately high exposure to wells, potentially contributing to health disparities.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
DOE OSTI2023

Wintertime Supraglacial Lake Drainage Cascade Triggers Large‐Scale Ice Flow Response in Greenland

Surface melt forces summertime ice-flow accelerations on glaciers and ice sheets. Here, we show that large meltwater-forced accelerations also occur during wintertime in Greenland. We document supraglacial lakes (SGLs) draining in cascades at unusually high elevation, causing an expansive flow acceleration over a ~5,200 km 2 region during winter. The three-component interferometric surface velocity field and decomposition modeling reveal the underlying flood propagation with unprecedented detail as it traveled over 160 km from the drainage site to the margin, providing novel constraints on subglacial water pathways, drainage morphology, and links with basal sliding. The triggering SGLs continuously grew over 40 years and suddenly released decades of stored meltwater, demonstrating surface melting can impact dynamics well beyond melt production. We show these events are likely common and thus their cumulative impact on dynamics should be further evaluated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhanced Carbon Flux Response to Atmospheric Aridity and Water Storage Deficit During the 2015–2016 El Niño Compromised Carbon Balance Recovery in Tropical South America

During the 2015–2016 El Niño, the Amazon basin released almost one gigaton of carbon (GtC) into the atmosphere due to extreme temperatures and drought. The link between the drought impact and recovery of the total carbon pools and its biogeochemical drivers is still unknown. With satellite-constrained net carbon exchange and its component fluxes including gross primary production and fire emissions, we show that the total carbon loss caused by the 2015–2016 El Niño had not recovered by the end of 2018. Forest ecosystems over the Northeastern (NE) Amazon suffered a cumulative total carbon loss of ~0.6 GtC through December 2018, driven primarily by a suppression of photosynthesis whereas southeastern savannah carbon loss was driven in part by fire. We attribute the slow recovery to the unexpected large carbon loss caused by the severe atmospheric aridity coupled with a water storage deficit during drought. We show the attenuation of carbon uptake is three times higher than expected from the pre-drought sensitivity to atmospheric aridity and ground water supply. Our study fills an important knowledge gap in our understanding of the unexpectedly enhanced response of carbon fluxes to atmospheric aridity and water storage deficit and its impact on regional post-drought recovery as a function of the vegetation types and climate perturbations. Our results suggest that the disproportionate impact of water supply and demand could compromise resiliency of the Amazonian carbon balance to future increases in extreme events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data‐Driven Predictions of Peak Warming Under Rapid Decarbonization

Abstract The severe impacts associated with recent record‐setting annual global temperatures elevate the need to accurately predict the hottest conditions that could occur even if the most ambitious decarbonization goals are achieved. We use convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to predict peak global warming from recent observed temperature maps and future cumulative CO 2 emissions. For the SSP1‐1.9 decarbonization scenario there is >99% probability that mean global warming exceeds 1.5°C, approximately even odds that it reaches 2°C, and ∼90% probability that the hottest year globally exceeds 2023 by at least 0.5°C. Further, for the SSP2‐4.5 decarbonization scenario, there is >90% probability that the hottest annual global temperature anomaly is twice the 2023 anomaly. That our framework makes highly accurate out‐of‐sample predictions of the hottest historical year provides confidence in the predicted future probabilities, suggesting substantial risks from the extreme local conditions that are likely to result from globally hot years during rapid decarbonization.

Diffenbaugh, Noah S. [Doerr School of Sustainabili↗
DOE OSTI2025

Allometric Scaling of Hyporheic Respiration Across Basins in the Pacific Northwest United States

Abstract Hyporheic zones regulate biogeochemical processes in streams and rivers, but high spatiotemporal heterogeneity makes it difficult to predict how these processes scale from individual reaches to river basins. Recent work applying allometric scaling (i.e., power‐law relationships between size and function) to river networks provides a new paradigm for understanding cumulative hyporheic biogeochemical processes. We used previously published model predictions of reach‐scale hyporheic aerobic respiration to explore patterns in allometric scaling across two climatically divergent basins with differing characteristics in the Pacific Northwest, United States. In the model, hydrologic exchange fluxes (HEFs) regulate hyporheic respiration, so we examined how HEFs might influence allometric scaling of respiration. We found consistent scaling behaviors where HEFs were either very low or very high, but differences between basins when HEFs were moderate. Our findings provide initial model‐generated hypotheses for factors influencing allometric scaling of hyporheic respiration. These hypotheses can be used to optimize new data generation efforts aimed at developing predictive understanding of allometries that can, in turn, be used to scale biogeochemical dynamics across watersheds.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Peatland Plant Community Changes in Annual Production and Composition Through 8 Years of Warming Manipulations Under Ambient and Elevated CO 2 Atmospheres

The Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments (SPRUCE) experiment has operated five whole-ecosystem warming manipulations (+0, +2.25, +4.5, +6.75, and +9°C) with paired ambient and elevated CO 2 atmospheres (eCO 2 , +500 ppm) for 8 full calendar years (since August 2015). We tracked shrub-layer vegetation responses to the treatments using annual destructive plot sampling. Tree (Picea and Larix) responses were assessed annually using nondestructive dimensional analyses and allometric conversions. Shrub community changes were assessed for key ericaceous shrubs (Rhododendron, Chamaedaphne, and Kalmia), two Vaccinium species (V. angustifolium, V. oxycoccos), graminoid species (mostly Eriophorum), and one common forb (Maianthemum trifolium), plus minor understory species. We tracked annual aboveground net primary production (ANPP) for vascular plant species in gC m -2 y -1 and overall stand contribution in dry mass. We observed a linear increase in shrub-layer aboveground biomass accumulation with warming over time due primarily to an increase in ericaceous shrub abundance. Cumulative biomass increases across the shrub community showed overall positive responses to eCO 2 after 8 years. Community composition also changed with warming, with increases in woody shrub density, and the reduction or loss of forbs. The tree community showed minimal initial responses to warming early in the treatments, but since 2020, has shown significant increases in ANPP and individual tree growth with warming. The main driver of change in the vascular plant community was temperature, with less pronounced effects of eCO 2 evident. These results indicate an overall increase in ANPP with warming from both the tree and shrub layers of peatland vegetation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Coupling Remote Sensing With a Process Model for the Simulation of Rangeland Carbon Dynamics

Rangelands provide significant environmental benefits through many ecosystem services, which may include soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration. However, quantifying SOC stocks and monitoring carbon (C) fluxes in rangelands are challenging due to the considerable spatial and temporal variability tied to rangeland C dynamics as well as limited data availability. We developed the Rangeland Carbon Tracking and Management (RCTM) system to track long-term changes in SOC and ecosystem C fluxes by leveraging remote sensing inputs and environmental variable data sets with algorithms representing terrestrial C-cycle processes. Bayesian calibration was conducted using quality-controlled C flux data sets obtained from 61 Ameriflux and NEON flux tower sites from Western and Midwestern US rangelands to parameterize the model according to dominant vegetation classes (perennial and/or annual grass, grass-shrub mixture, and grass-tree mixture). The resulting RCTM system produced higher model accuracy for estimating annual cumulative gross primary productivity (GPP) (R 2 > 0.6, RMSE <390 g C m -2 ) relative to net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 (NEE) (R 2 > 0.4, RMSE <180 g C m -2 ). Model performance in estimating rangeland C fluxes varied by season and vegetation type. The RCTM captured the spatial variability of SOC stocks with R 2 = 0.6 when validated against SOC measurements across 13 NEON sites. Model simulations indicated slightly enhanced SOC stocks for the flux tower sites during the past decade, which is mainly driven by an increase in precipitation. Future efforts to refine the RCTM system will benefit from long-term network-based monitoring of vegetation biomass, C fluxes, and SOC stocks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predicting Flow in Fracture Networks With Quantum Algorithms

Uncertainty quantification plays a crucial role in the modeling of subsurface flow. For instance, uncertainties in the properties of geologic fracture networks significantly impact flow, requiring numerous simulations to accurately estimate quantities of interest. However, each simulation is computationally expensive because it requires solving a large linear system to capture features that involve both small and large fractures. An example is in percolation, where the interaction of many small fractures (which cumulatively can have a large surface area) with the rock matrix must be modeled precisely. Quantum computing is an emerging tool with the potential to address this issue. Quantum algorithms offer a significant speedup in solving linear systems, achieving efficiencies that are challenging to match with classical approaches. These classical approaches include direct solvers, such as LU decomposition, and iterative methods, notably preconditioned conjugate gradient, commonly used in subsurface modeling to solve large sparse systems. However, applying quantum algorithms to geologic fracture flow requires careful attention to algorithmic and problem-specific constraints to fully realize this quantum advantage. In this work we describe a quantum algorithm for generalized Monte Carlo applications with a quadratic speedup over the classical approaches which can be combined with the quantum speedup, currently under investigation, for solving quantum linear systems for subsurface flow. We show that for quantum algorithms the computational cost of estimating a quantity of interest for a statistical ensemble of networks is roughly the same as that of a single realization, essentially implying that one can get uncertainty quantification for free.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating How Climate Adaptation Measures Affect the Interconnected Water‐Energy Resource Systems of the Western United States

Abstract The Western US faces increasing water stress from the impacts of climate change, making it difficult to meet water demands for the region's cities, agriculture, and hydropower generators. Existing literature suggests that climate adaptation measures such as water conservation, cropland retirement, wastewater recycling, and managed aquifer recharge can alleviate some of these challenges. Few analyses, however, compare the relative efficacy and system‐wide effects of these adaptations under different climate projections across the entire Western United States. Here we use a Western US‐wide water systems model to evaluate, by sector and sub‐region, how the widespread implementation of these adaptive measures impacts water demands, water deliveries, and electricity use related to the water system for three different climate projections. We find that wastewater recycling has greater potential to lower unmet indoor water demands than urban indoor water conservation measures. However, when implemented at scale, indoor water conservation reduces electricity use by an average of 683 Terawatt hours while wastewater recycling increases energy use by an average of 721 Terawatt hours, cumulatively from 2020 to 2070. Cropland retirement and aquifer recharge adaptations increase the ability to meet agricultural water demand, increase groundwater storage, and reduce summertime electricity use. While most of these findings are consistent across different climate projections, the benefits of aquifer recharge are sensitive to spatial variation of precipitation. Given the limitations and tradeoffs of each individually, the results suggest that a portfolio of adaptation measures will be needed for a climate‐resilient water and energy future in the Western US. Plain Language Summary The Western US faces increased water stress from the impacts of climate change, making it difficult to meet demands for cities, agriculture, and hydropower facilities. Adaptation measures like water conservation, retiring agricultural lands, recycling wastewater, and storing water underground can address these challenges. However, there is little modeling to understand the impact of these adaptations if they were implemented across the entire Western US while also considering climate change. We use a Western US‐wide water systems model to evaluate how implementing adaptation measures impacts groundwater levels, the ability to meet water demands, and electricity use related to water in three different possible climate futures. We find that recycling wastewater to drinking water standards does a better job of meeting urban water demands than water conservation measures. However, indoor water conservation reduces energy use for water while recycling wastewater increases energy use for water. Retiring agricultural lands and storing water underground both increase the ability to meet agricultural water demands, increase underground water storage, and reduce summertime energy use. No adaptation measures provides benefits across every metric we track. Therefore, multiple adaptation measures will likely be needed to achieve a climate‐resilient future for energy and water in the Western US. Key Points Water‐related climate change adaptations have different benefits and tradeoffs for interconnected water‐energy systems in the Western U.S. Wastewater recycling most increases urban water coverage, but has a significant tradeoff in the form of greater electricity use Cropland retirement and aquifer recharge benefit water and electricity systems most in the summer when those systems are most stressed

Singhal, A↗
DOE OSTI2026

Small Reservoirs Offer a New Perspective on Flood Reduction in Large Basins

The flood reduction potential of individual reservoirs within a large river network continuum remains poorly understood due to the complex interplay between reservoir characteristics and network properties. Here we investigate whether a collection of relatively small reservoirs can play a significant role in mediating downstream floods and assess how that role may be influenced by reservoir network properties compared to traditionally known reservoir characteristics. Our unique contribution was the simulation of downstream flood inundation maps alongside peak flows for each of the 81 major reservoirs (6 × 104 to 8 × 109 m3) across 15,000 river reach segments, integrated into a process-based hydrologic model covering a 415,000 km2 region in the Texas Gulf Coast, United States. The three key takeaways from our study are as follows. (a) Smaller reservoirs can substantially reduce downstream flooding, suggesting that inclusion of large reservoirs—the traditional approach in flood risk management studies—may present only a partial picture. (b) Flood reduction by smaller reservoirs is more effective upstream, although this phenomenon may be linked with aridity and overall water availability. (c) While reservoir size matters, it is not the primary factor determining its downstream flood reduction potential; the influence of network properties, such as catchment area, the count of upstream reservoirs, the cumulative maximum storage capacity of upstream reservoirs, and Stream Order (i.e., location), is equally and often more important. The broader impact of our findings goes beyond just floods, providing foundational insights for addressing emerging challenges such as aging dams and river connectivity.

Patel, Krutikkumar [University of Texas at Arlingt↗
DOE OSTI2020

The sponge effect and carbon emission mitigation potentials of the global cement cycle

Cement plays a dual role in the global carbon cycle like a sponge: its massive production contributes significantly to present-day global anthropogenic CO 2 emissions, yet its hydrated products gradually reabsorb substantial amounts of atmospheric CO 2 (carbonation) in the future. The role of this sponge effect along the cement cycle (including production, use, and demolition) in carbon emissions mitigation, however, remains hitherto unexplored. Here, we quantify the effects of demand- and supply-side mitigation measures considering this material-energy-emissions-uptake nexus, finding that climate goals would be imperiled if the growth of cement stocks continues. Future reabsorption of CO 2 will be significant (~30% of cumulative CO 2 emissions from 2015 to 2100), but climate goal compliant net CO 2 emissions reduction along the global cement cycle will require both radical technology advancements (e.g., carbon capture and storage) and widespread deployment of material efficiency measures, which go beyond those envisaged in current technology roadmaps.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Power sector investment implications of climate impacts on renewable resources in Latin America and the Caribbean

Climate change mitigation will require substantial investments in renewables. In addition, climate change will affect future renewable supply and hence, power sector investment requirements. We study the implications of climate impacts on renewables for power sector investments under deep decarbonization using a global integrated assessment model. We focus on Latin American and Caribbean, an under-studied region but of great interest due to its strong role in international climate mitigation and vulnerability to climate change. We find that accounting for climate impacts on renewables results in significant additional investments ($12–114 billion by 2100 across Latin American countries) for a region with weak financial infrastructure. We also demonstrate that accounting for climate impacts only on hydropower—a primary focus of previous studies—significantly underestimates cumulative investments, particularly in scenarios with high intermittent renewable deployment. Our study underscores the importance of comprehensive analyses of climate impacts on renewables for improved energy planning.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Activation of anionic redox in d 0 transition metal chalcogenides by anion doping

Expanding the chemical space for designing novel anionic redox materials from oxides to sulfides has enabled to better apprehend fundamental aspects dealing with cationic-anionic relative band positioning. Pursuing with chalcogenides, but deviating from cationic substitution, we here present another twist to our band positioning strategy that relies on mixed ligands with the synthesis of the Li 2 TiS 3-x Se x solid solution series. Through the series the electrochemical activity displays a bell shape variation that peaks at 260 mAh/g for the composition x = 0.6 with barely no capacity for the x = 0 and x = 3 end members. We show that this capacity results from cumulated anionic (Se 2– /Se n– ) and (S 2– /S n– ) and cationic Ti 3+ /Ti 4+ redox processes and provide evidence for a metal-ligand charge transfer by temperature-driven electron localization. Moreover, DFT calculations reveal that an anionic redox process cannot take place without the dynamic involvement of the transition metal electronic states. These insights can guide the rational synthesis of other Li-rich chalcogenides that are of interest for the development of solid-state batteries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗