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DOE OSTI2023

Deep decarbonization and U.S. biofuels production: a coordinated analysis with a detailed structural model and an integrated multisectoral model

Scenarios for deep decarbonization involve biomass for biofuels, biopower, and bioproducts, and they often include negative emissions via carbon capture and storage or utilization. However, critical questions remain about the feasibility of rapid growth to high levels of biomass utilization, given biomass and land availability as well as historical growth rates of the biofuel industry. We address these questions through a unique coordinated analysis and comparison of carbon pricing effects on biomass utilization growth in the United States using a multisectoral integrated assessment model, the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), and a biomass-to-biofuels system dynamics model, the Bioenergy Scenario Model (BSM). We harmonized and varied key factors—such as carbon prices, vehicle electrification, and arable land availability—in the two models. We varied the rate of biorefinery construction, the fungibility of feedstock types across conversion processes, and policy incentives in BSM. The rate of growth in biomass deployment under a carbon price in both models is within the range of current literature. However, the reallocation of land to biomass feedstocks would need to overcome bottlenecks to achieve growth consistent with deep decarbonization scenarios. Investments as a result of near-term policy incentives can develop technology and expand capacity—reducing costs, enabling flexibility in feedstock use, and improving stability—but if biomass demand is high, these investments might not overcome land reallocation bottlenecks. Biomass utilization for deep decarbonization relies on extraordinary growth in biomass availability and industrial capacity. In this paper, we quantify and describe the potential challenges of this rapid change.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Proton isovector helicity PDF at NNLO and the twist-3 moment $\tilde{d}$ 2 from lattice QCD at physical quark masses

We present a lattice quantum chromodynamics calculation of the 𝑥-dependent isovector quark helicity parton distribution function (PDF) of the proton in the large momentum effective theory (LaMET) framework. Through operator product expansion (OPE) we also extract the $\tilde{d}$ 2 moment of the twist-3 PDF 𝑔 𝑇 ⁡(𝑥) for the first time in the $\overline{MS}$ scheme, which is proportional to the average color Lorentz force experienced by the quark in the proton. This calculation is performed on a lattice of spacing 𝑎 =0.076 fm at physical quark masses. The quasi-PDF matrix elements are measured in proton states boosted to momenta 𝑃 𝑧 ={0,0.25,1.02,1.53} GeV. We first extract the lowest few helicity PDF moments from the renormalization-group (RG) invariant ratios of the matrix elements with OPE. Combined with the matrix elements relevant for 𝑔 𝑇 ⁡(𝑥), we obtain $\tilde{d}$$^{u-d}_2$⁡(2 GeV) =0.0024⁢(46) at next-to-leading order in $\overline{MS}$. Then, the helicity quasi-PDF matrix elements are renormalized in the hybrid scheme with linear renormalon resummation and Fourier transformed to the 𝑥-space after an asymptotic extrapolation. The quasi-PDF is perturbatively matched to the $\overline{MS}$ PDF with RG and threshold resummations at next-to-leading power and next-to-next-to-leading logarithmic accuracies. After resummations, we determine the PDF in the region 𝑥 ∈[0.25,0.75]. The end-point regions are then parametrized, combined with the LaMET prediction at moderate 𝑥, and fitted to the short-distance matrix elements in coordinate space.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

High-field/high-frequency electron spin resonances of Fe-doped β − Ga 2 O 3 by terahertz generalized ellipsometry: Monoclinic symmetry effects

We demonstrate detection and measurement of electron paramagnetic spin resonances (EPR) of iron defects in β − Ga 2 O 3 utilizing generalized ellipsometry at frequencies between 110 and 170 GHz. The experiments are performed on an Fe-doped single crystal in a free-beam configuration in reflection at 45 ∘ and magnetic fields between 3 and 7 T. In contrast with low-field, low-frequency EPR measurements, we observe all five transitions of the s = 5 / 2 high-spin state Fe 3 + simultaneously. We confirm that ferric Fe 3 + is predominantly found at octahedrally coordinated Ga sites. We obtain the full set of fourth-order monoclinic zero-field splitting parameters for both octahedrally and tetrahedrally coordinated sites by employing measurements at multiple sample azimuth rotations. The capability of high-field EPR allows us to demonstrate that simplified second-order orthorhombic spin Hamiltonians are insufficient, and fourth-order terms as well as consideration of the monoclinic symmetry are needed. These findings are supported by computational approaches based on density-functional theory for second-order and on ligand-field theory for fourth-order parameters of the spin Hamiltonian. Terahertz ellipsometry is a way to measure spin resonances in a cavity-free setup. Its possibility of varying the probe frequency arbitrarily without otherwise changing the experimental setup offers unique means of truly disentangling different components of highly anisotropic spin Hamiltonians. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Materials Science↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Athena++ Adaptive Mesh Refinement Framework: Design and Magnetohydrodynamic Solvers

The design and implementation of a new framework for adaptive mesh refinement calculations are described. It is intended primarily for applications in astrophysical fluid dynamics, but its flexible and modular design enables its use for a wide variety of physics. The framework works with both uniform and nonuniform grids in Cartesian and curvilinear coordinate systems. It adopts a dynamic execution model based on a simple design called a "task list" that improves parallel performance by overlapping communication and computation, simplifies the inclusion of a diverse range of physics, and even enables multiphysics models involving different physics in different regions of the calculation. We describe physics modules implemented in this framework for both nonrelativistic and relativistic magnetohydrodynamics (MHD). These modules adopt mature and robust algorithms originally developed for the Athena MHD code and incorporate new extensions: support for curvilinear coordinates, higher-order time integrators, more realistic physics such as a general equation of state, and diffusion terms that can be integrated with super-time-stepping algorithms. The modules show excellent performance and scaling, with well over 80% parallel efficiency on over half a million threads. The source code has been made publicly available.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Energy Technology Innovation Partnership Project Strategic Energy Plan for Washington County, Maine

This Strategic Energy Plan (SEP) for Washington County, Maine was developed through the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Technology Innovation Partnership Project (ETIPP) to address local challenges related to electricity reliability, affordability, and safety. Grounded in a "relational infrastructure" approach, the plan recognizes that improved energy outcomes depend not only on physical grid investments but also on strengthened coordination and trust between utilities and communities. Using utility-provided reliability data, public datasets, and community input, the plan identifies key risks, including vegetation-related outages, high energy burden, and vulnerability among elderly and medically dependent populations. The SEP establishes three priority areas: hazard mitigation for energy infrastructure, outage safety and emergency readiness, and energy assistance and thermal safety. It outlines community-driven actions designed to complement utility-led system improvements, including targeted outreach, municipal coordination, and expanded access to energy programs. The plan also situates local conditions within broader state policy, market dynamics, and funding opportunities. Intended as a living document, this SEP provides a scalable framework for collaborative action to improve resilience, safety, and affordability in rural energy systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modeling dark- and light-induced crystal structures and single-crystal optical absorption spectra of ruthenium-based complexes that undergo SO 2 -linkage photoisomerization

A family of coordination complexes of the type [Ru(SO 2 )(NH 3 ) 4 X] m+ Y n – (m, n = 1 or 2) exhibit optical switching capabilities in their single-crystal states. This striking effect is caused by the light-induced formation of SO 2 -linkage photoisomers, which are metastable if kept at suitably cool temperatures. We modeled the dark- and light-induced states of these large crystalline complexes via plane-wave (PW)- and molecular-orbital (MO)-based density functional theory (DFT) and time-dependent DFT in order to calculate their structural and optical properties; the calculated results are compared with experimental data. We show that the PW-DFT-based periodic models replicate the structural properties of these complexes more effectively than the MO-DFT-based molecular-fragment models, observing only small deviations in key bond lengths relative to the experimentally derived crystal structures. The periodic models were also found to more effectively simulate trends seen in experimental optical absorption spectra, with optical absorbance and coverage of the visible region increasing with the formation of the photoinduced geometries. The contribution of the metastable photoisomeric species more heavily focuses on the lower-energy end of the spectra. Spectra generated from the molecular-fragment models are limited by the geometry of the fragment used and the number of excited-state roots considered in those calculations. In general, periodic models outperform the molecular-fragment models owing to their ability to better appreciate the periodic phenomena that are present in these crystalline materials as opposed to MO approaches, which are finite methods. We thus demonstrate that PW-DFT-based periodic models should be considered as a more than viable method for simulating the optical and electronic properties of these single-crystal optical switches.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Gene network centrality analysis identifies key regulators coordinating day-night metabolic transitions in Synechococcus elongatus PCC 7942 despite limited accuracy in predicting direct regulator-gene interactions

Synechococcus elongatus PCC 7942 is a model organism for studying circadian regulation and bioproduction, where precise temporal control of metabolism significantly impacts photosynthetic efficiency and CO 2 -to-bioproduct conversion. Despite extensive research on core clock components, our understanding of the broader regulatory network orchestrating genome-wide metabolic transitions remains incomplete. We address this gap by applying machine learning tools and network analysis to investigate the transcriptional architecture governing circadian-controlled gene expression. While our approach showed moderate accuracy in predicting individual transcription factor-gene interactions - a common challenge with real expression data - network-level topological analysis successfully revealed the organizational principles of circadian regulation. Our analysis identified distinct regulatory modules coordinating day-night metabolic transitions, with photosynthesis and carbon/nitrogen metabolism controlled by day-phase regulators, while nighttime modules orchestrate glycogen mobilization and redox metabolism. Through network centrality analysis, we identified potentially significant but previously understudied transcriptional regulators: HimA as a putative DNA architecture regulator, and TetR and SrrB as potential coordinators of nighttime metabolism, working alongside established global regulators RpaA and RpaB. This work demonstrates how network-level analysis can extract biologically meaningful insights despite limitations in predicting direct regulatory interactions. The regulatory principles uncovered here advance our understanding of how cyanobacteria coordinate complex metabolic transitions and may inform metabolic engineering strategies for enhanced photosynthetic bioproduction from CO 2 .

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Leaf-level physiological strategies related to productivity and plasticity of Populus in the Southeastern United States

Introduction: Populus and its hybrids are attractive bioenergy crops and the southeastern United States has broad ability to supply bioenergy markets with woody biomass. Breeding and hybridization have led to superior eastern cottonwood (Populus deltoides W. Bartram ex Marshall) and hybrid poplars adapted to a wide variety of site types not suited for agricultural production. In order to maximize productivity and minimize inputs, genotypes need to efficiently use available site resources and tolerate environmental stresses. In addition, we need to determine plasticity of traits and their coordination across sites to select traits that will broadly characterize genotypes. Therefore, our study objectives were to determine (1) which leaf traits were correlated with growth, (2) if traits and genotypes exhibited significant plasticity across sites, and (3) how traits were coordinated within and across sites and Populus taxa. Methods: We measured trees at two sites in northeastern Mississippi, United States: one upland and one alluvial terrace site. Genotypes included eastern cottonwoods as well as F 1 crosses of eastern cottonwood and P. maximowiczii (Henry), P. nigra (L.) and P. trichocarpa (Torr. & Gray). Results: We found that sites differed in which leaf traits were correlated with productivity; with water use efficiency specifically being positively correlated with growth at an alluvial terrace site, but negatively correlated with growth at an upland site. Tree height growth, leaf isotope composition (δ 13 C and δ 15 N), as well as leaf mass per area (LMA) exhibited the least plasticity across sites, while physiological gas exchange parameters and leaf nitrogen concentration exhibited the highest plasticity. Broadly across taxa, leaf carbon isotope ratios were correlated with intrinsic water use efficiency, and stomatal conductance was positively correlated with photosynthetic nitrogen use efficiency across sites, while leaf nitrogen isotope ratios exhibited contrasting relationships with leaf nitrogen concentration. Discussion: Overall, these results allow us to refine selections of productive genotypes based on site conditions and site-specific relationships with physiological parameters to better match Populus taxa with sites and landowner objectives.

bioenergy feedstocks↗

DOE OSTI2025

Homoleptic An(IV) Dimethyl Sulfoxide Complexes of Th–Pu Enable Insight into Solution Speciation and Redox

A family of 8- and 9- coordinate homoleptic dimethyl sulfoxide An(IV) complexes is used to evaluate the solvation properties of tetravalent actinide ions in dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO) vs aqueous media. These compounds are prepared from aqueous mixtures of DMSO and yield crystalline solids, whose solid-state electronic absorption spectra are compared to solution phase spectra, providing insight into the solution speciation. The thermodynamics of the equilibria between the 8- and 9-coordinate compounds were determined experimentally and computationally, showing a trend that correlates with ionic radius. Cyclic voltammetry data for the +IV/+III couples of Np and Pu in the DMSO electrolyte indicate that the +IV ions are significantly stabilized compared to aqueous media due to the more donating nature of DMSO compared to water. As a result, computational studies of these systems indicate that further reactivity may take place upon reduction to the +III oxidation state.

Actinides↗

DOE OSTI2025

Significant acceleration of solid-state NMR simulations via three-angle powder averaging

The anisotropic frequency shifts imparted onto the NMR resonance frequency depend on the spherical angular coordinates that describe the orientations of the NMR interaction tensors with respect to the applied magnetic field direction. Experiments performed using magic-angle spinning, however, gain a dependence on a third angle: the rotor phase γ. Traditionally, a carousel average is performed to integrate over γ, which leads to a slow convergence of intensities without contributing to the underlying powder patterns. Herein, we show an order of magnitude acceleration in computation time may be obtained by including the γ-averaging into the main powder average to eliminate redundant calculation of resonance frequencies.

magic-angle spinning↗

DOE OSTI2025

Long-Range Allosteric Communication Modulated by Active Site Mn(II) Coordination Drives Catalysis in Xanthobacter autotrophicus Acetone Carboxylase

Acetone carboxylase (AC) from Xanthobacter autotrophicus is a 360 KDa α2β2γ2 heterohexamer that catalyzes the ATP-dependent formation of phosphorylated acetone and bicarbonate intermediates that react at Mn(II) metal active sites to form acetoacetate. Structural models of X. autotrophicus AC (XaAC) with and without nucleotides reveal that the binding and phosphorylation of the two substrates occurs ~40 Å from the Mn(II) active sites where acetoacetate is formed. Based on the crystal structures, a significant conformational change was proposed to open and close a tunnel that facilitates the passage of reaction intermediates between the sites for nucleotide binding and phosphorylation of substrates and Mn(II) sites of acetoacetate formation. We have employed electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR), kinetic assays, and hydrogen/deuterium exchange mass spectrometry (HDX-MS) of poised ligand-bound states and site-specific amino acid variants to complete an in-depth analysis of Mn(II) coordination and allosteric communication throughout the catalytic cycle. In contrast with the established paradigms for carboxylation, our analyses of XaAC suggested a carboxylate shift that couples both local and long-range structural transitions. Shifts in the coordination mode of a single carboxylic acid residue (αE89) mediate both catalysis proximal to a Mn(II) center and communication with an ATP active site in a separate subunit of a 180 kDa α2β2γ2 complex at a distance of 40 Å. This work demonstrates the power of combining structural models from X-ray crystallography with solution-phase spectroscopy and biophysical techniques to elucidate functional aspects of a multi-subunit enzyme.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗

DOE OSTI2022

Basin-Wide Approaches to Hydropower Licensing

This presentation summarizes findings from a 2020 NREL technical report including the FERC relicensing process for non-federal hydropower projects, analyzes FERC-licensed projects with license expiration dates from 2018-2037, discusses FERC's authority to coordinate license terms of hydropower projects within a shared river basin and provides basin-wide case studies and considerations to hydropower relicensing. In the United States there are 1,043 active FERC-licensed hydroelectric projects with a total capacity of 56,097 MW. Of those, 647 with a total capacity of 21,870 MW have license expiration dates from 2018-2037. The expected workload in conjunction with the time, cost, and complexity associated with issuing a single new license has led to initiatives that aim to increase the efficiency of the relicensing process. Federal and state regulators and licensees in California, Maine, New York, and Wisconsin have begun to develop approaches to look at hydropower relicensing as part of a larger system - a river basin. These basin-wide approaches seek to coordinate different stages of the relicensing process for multiple projects at the same time. The goal of these basin-wide approaches is to increase the efficiency of the relicensing process and allow for a more comprehensive analysis of the cumulative impacts of the projects within the basin. These innovative approaches to relicensing could also reduce the workload for regulators and costs associated with relicensing. This presentation discusses some of the findings from the Basin-wide Approaches to Hydropower Relicensing: Case Studies and Considerations including a summary of the key considerations for the FERC relicensing process for non-federal hydropower projects, key findings from the analysis of FERC-licensed projects with license expiration dates from 2018-2037, discusses FERC's authority to coordinate license terms of hydropower projects within a shared river basin and provides basin-wide case studies and considerations to hydropower relicensing.

basin-wide↗

DOE OSTI2022

The coordination chemistry of oxide and nanocarbon materials

Understanding how a ligand affects the steric and electronic properties of a metal is the cornerstone of the inorganic chemistry enterprise. What happens when the ligand is an extended surface? This question is central to the design and implementation of state-of-the-art functional materials containing transition metals. Here, this perspective will describe how these two very different sets of extended surfaces can form well-defined coordination complexes with metals. In the Green formalism, functionalities on oxide surfaces react with inorganics to form species that contain X-type or LX-type interactions between the metal and the oxide. Carbon surfaces are neutral L-type ligands; this perspective focuses on carbons that donate six electrons to a metal. The nature of this interaction depends on the curvature, and thereby orbital overlap, between the metal and the extended π-system from the nanocarbon.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Descriptor-Based Analysis of Atomic Layer Deposition Mechanisms on Spinel LiMn 2 O 4 Lithium-Ion Battery Cathodes

Protective coatings have been shown to effectively suppress Mn ion dissolution from the spinel LiMn 2 O 4 lithium-ion battery cathode by stabilizing the surface against undesired side reactions with the electrolyte. In spite of extensive study, however, there remains a lack of atomic-scale understanding of how such coatings are deposited, and no molecular-level descriptor to predict trends in deposition mechanisms has been identified. We have recently shown that Al 2 O 3 coatings grown by atomic layer deposition (ALD) with alternating trimethylaluminum (TMA) and water exposures exhibit submonolayer growth because of precursor decomposition on the lithium manganate spinel (LMO) surface during early ALD pulses. In the present work, we elucidate the underlying mechanisms of this Al 2 O 3 ALD process using density functional theory (DFT) calculations and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) experiments, and we introduce a generalized descriptor-based framework to understand the resulting trends across a spectrum of surface structures and functionalities. We demonstrate that all decomposition products, including CH 3 -aluminum adducts and dissociated CH 3 groups, are Lewis bases and are coordinated to oxygen atoms on the LMO surface, leading to charge transfer to Lewis acidic Mn 3d states. Inert-transfer XPS supports these theoretical predictions, showing an increase in near-surface Mn 3+ content following TMA exposure and shifts in C is spectra consistent with C-O bond formation. We extend the DFT studies to various low- and high-index LMO surface facets, as a proxy for tuning the Lewis acid-base interactions between surface-bound CH 3 * and near-surface Mn ions. The thermochemistry for TMA reactions on these chemically distinct LMO surfaces demonstrates that ALD is structure-sensitive and that there is higher reactivity for TMA decomposition and Al 2 O 3 nucleation near LMO steps and defects. Motivated by the Lewis basic character of the decomposition products, we introduce the oxygen vacancy formation energy as a descriptor for decomposition energetics, and we demonstrate that all energetics are correlated to this quantity through the number of electrons that are transferred along the reaction coordinate. Finally, based on these findings, we hypothesize that improved electrochemical cycling with only 1-2 ALD cycles may be due to selective passivation of defect sites on the LMO surface that are more susceptible to Mn dissolution, and we suggest that similar descriptor-based analyses could be useful for the study of other ALD coatings on oxide substrates.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Nonadiabatic Effects on Defect Diffusion in Silicon-Doped Nanographenes

Single atom impurities in graphene, substitutional silicon defects in particular, have been observed to diffuse under electron beam irradiation. However, the relative importance of elastic and inelastic scattering in facilitating their mobility remains unclear. Here, we employ excited-state electronic structure calculations to explore potential inelastic effects, and find an electronically nonadiabatic excited-state silicon diffusion pathway involving “softened” Si–C bonding that presents an ~2 eV lower diffusion barrier than the ground-state pathway. Beam-induced transition rates to this state indicate that the excited-state pathway is accessible through irradiation of the defect site. However, even in the limit of fully elastic scattering, upward nonadiabatic transitions are also possible along the diffusion coordinate, increasing the diffusion barrier and further demonstrating the potential for electronic nonadiabaticity to influence beam-induced atomic transformations in materials. Additionally, we also propose some experimentally testable signatures of such excited-state pathways.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Connected Traffic Signal Coordination Optimization Framework through Network-Wide Adaptive Linear Quadratic Regulator–Based Control Strategy

Traffic congestion in metropolitan areas causes several significant challenges, such as longer travel times, decreased productivity, increased fuel consumption and vehicle emissions, and even severe injuries during crashes. Traffic signal control is a management approach to reduce traffic congestion and allocate the appropriate right of way for safety and mobility efficiency, both in temporal and spatial domains. Here, this study proposes a network-wide adaptive signal control coordination optimization framework based on the linear quadratic regulator algorithm. The traffic flow conditions driven by signal control inputs are formulated based on their network-wide state-space representation. After modeling traffic control regulation constraints, an adaptive linear quadratic regulator algorithm is designed to maximize the network-wide total throughput under the current conditions. Optimal signal control split time durations for multiple intersections in the network are derived by solving the algebraic Riccati equation. Furthermore, the recursive least square parameter estimation method is employed to quantify dynamic traffic condition changes. To verify the effectiveness of this proposed signal control framework, both simulation and real-world experimental tests are conducted for multiple intersections in downtown Chattanooga, Tennessee, United States. In preparation for real-world experimental tests, pipelines for real-time data processing implementation and historical traffic flow data analysis are conducted. The test results demonstrate that the proposed control framework achieves a decrease in travel time by up to 19.4%, total time spent (TTS) by up to 11.9%, and relative queue balance (RQB) by up to 15.6%. The research findings indicate that the proposed signal control framework can be generalized to handle large scale signal control optimization network-wide.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Characterization of just one atom using synchrotron X-rays

Since the discovery of X-rays by Roentgen in 1895, its use has been ubiquitous, from medical and environmental applications to materials sciences. X-ray characterization requires a large number of atoms and reducing the material quantity is a long-standing goal. Here we show that X-rays can be used to characterize the elemental and chemical state of just one atom. Using a specialized tip as a detector, X-ray-excited currents generated from an iron and a terbium atom coordinated to organic ligands are detected. The fingerprints of a single atom, the L 2,3 and M 4,5 absorption edge signals for iron and terbium, respectively, are clearly observed in the X-ray absorption spectra. The chemical states of these atoms are characterized by means of near-edge X-ray absorption signals, in which X-ray-excited resonance tunnelling (X-ERT) is dominant for the iron atom. The X-ray signal can be sensed only when the tip is located directly above the atom in extreme proximity, which confirms atomically localized detection in the tunnelling regime. Finally, our work connects synchrotron X-rays with a quantum tunnelling process and opens future X-rays experiments for simultaneous characterizations of elemental and chemical properties of materials at the ultimate single-atom limit.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Empirical Assessment of Interregional Coordination to Support Resource Adequacy [Slides]

This study examines where interregional transmission could most effectively support resource adequacy in the contiguous United States. We use hourly load, renewable generation, and real-time price data from 2016–2023 for 18 planning subregions to identify periods of elevated adequacy risk, defined as the top 100 annual hours of net load and wholesale prices in each region. We then measure the temporal coincidence of these peak periods between adjacent regions and compare price patterns to assess the potential for capacity sharing. Results show that NorthernGrid West, a winter-peaking region, has low coincidence of peak net load with its summer-peaking neighbors, indicating high potential for interregional support. In contrast, regions in the Northeast have highly coincident peak periods, suggesting limited adequacy benefits from additional transmission. Price-based analysis shows peak-hour differences in the Midwest and between ERCOT and neighboring regions, indicating potential economic benefits from increased transfers. The findings provide an empirical screening of where transmission may offer the greatest reliability benefits without adding new generation capacity.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗