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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 559 records · Page 31
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

A machine learning approach for clinker quality prediction and nonlinear model predictive control design for a rotary cement kiln

Abstract Cement manufacturing is energy‐intensive (5Gj/t) and comprises a significant portion of the energy footprint of concrete systems. Incorporating modern monitoring, simulation and control systems will allow lower energy use, lower environmental impact, and lower costs of this widely used construction material. One of the goals of the CESMII roadmap project on the Smart Manufacturing of Cement included developing an analytical process model for clinker quality that includes the chemistry of the kiln feed and accounts for critical process variables. This predictive model will be used in nonlinear model predictive control system designed to significantly reduce process energy use while maintaining or improving product quality. In the cement manufacturing plant used in this study, the kiln feed (meal) is tested every 12 h and used to estimate the mineral composition of the cement kiln output (clinker) using the stoichiometry‐based Bogue's model and the expertise of the plant operators. During kiln operation, kiln output (clinker) is sampled and tested every 2 h to measure its chemical and mineral composition. The predicted and measured values of the clinker composition are used by the plant operators to adjust the kiln input stream and the production process characteristics to maintain stable operation and uniform product quality. However, the time delay between prediction and testing, along with inaccuracies inherent in the Bogue's model have made any process changes designed to minimize energy use problematic, especially in‐light of potential clinker quality issues that process changes often pose. A new analytical model that integrates quality information and process operation information has been developed from data collected from 2 years of production from an operating cement facility. To make the model fuel‐type‐independent, consumed heat energy was computed in the model instead of fuel type and amount. A Feedforward Network was trained and tailored from collected data. Many data‐based simulations were conducted to quantitatively evaluate the proposed model and the 5‐fold cross‐validation procedure was used to test the models. The resulting predictive model was shown to have a low root mean square error (MSE) with respect to the estimated clinker mineral composition compared to that using the industry standard “Bogue’ model”. The end goal of this work was to develop a single machine learning tool that allows the use of quality control data and process control variables to improve energy efficiency of the process in a continuous fashion. The proposed nonlinear model predictive control system (NMPC) can generate predicted kiln production characteristics based on manipulated variables in manner that accurately follows the target product quality values. Simulation results also show that the proposed model produced accurate predictions of kiln outputs that fell within the required constraints, while manipulating control variables within typical operational ranges.

Ali, Asem M.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Simulation of PV Variability as a Function of PV Generation and Plant Size

The deployment of photovoltaic (PV) systems continues to show significant expansion; however, this growth has brought added attention to issues around the variability of the solar resource. Both spatial and temporal variability exist. Temporal scales can range from the sub-second to multiyear, whereas spatial scales can range from a few meters to tens of kilometers. There are multiple methods described in the literature to quantify PV variability at various spatial and temporal scales. This study focuses on short-term temporal variability and uses similar approaches with the addition of PV plant size a parameter to quantify variability. The method employed here incorporates the normalization of clear-and cloudy-sky conditions and PV plant size to quantify nominal variability metrics. The distribution and fluctuations of these metrics provide relevant information that is useful for system operations. The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is used to simulate PV variability as a function of PV generation and plant size. Hypothetical but realistic system information at 33 locations is used to model PV generation by feeding NSRDB solar irradiance data to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s System Advisor Model (SAM). Over the selected region, it is found that the aggregated ramp rates for the 1-minute data are associated with standard deviations ranging from 0.002–0.055 on a daily basis; however, hourly intervals induce higher aggregated ramp rates than the other timescales. Even though minute-to-minute variations are significant for the 1-minute time-scale, the standard deviation aggregated into a daily metric is smaller because of the cancellation of values.

irradiance↗
DOE OSTI2022

What explains the year-to-year variation in growing season timing of boreal black spruce forests?

Amplified climate warming in high latitudes is expected to affect growing season timing of the vast boreal biome. It is unclear whether the presence of permafrost (perennially frozen ground) might have an influence on changes in growing season timing. Here, this study examined how different environmental variables explained, either directly or indirectly, the variation in growing season timing of boreal forest stands with and without permafrost. We expected that environmental variables explaining the variation in growing season timing differed or had different explanatory power depending on permafrost presence or absence. The growing season was delineated from daily gross primary productivity (GPP) time series derived from 40 site-year data of net ecosystem carbon dioxide exchange measured with eddy covariance techniques over five black spruce (Picea mariana [Mill.])-dominated boreal forest stands in North America. In permafrost-free forest stands, a combination of start in canopy ‘green-up’ in spring and the timing of air and soil temperature increasing above freezing explained the start-of-season (SOS GPP ). Results from commonality analysis and structural equation modeling suggest that canopy ‘green-up’ and air temperature directly affected SOS GPP in permafrost-free forest stands. In addition, soil temperature acted as mediator for an indirect effect of air temperature on SOS GPP . In contrast, none of the environmental variables, or their combination, explained the variation in SOS GPP in forest stands with permafrost. The explanatory power of environmental variables was more consistent regarding the end-of-season (EOS GPP ). In both, forest stands with and without permafrost, EOS GPP was directly explained by mean soil water content in the fall and the first day of continuous snowpack formation. A better understanding how environmental variables control SOS GPP and EOS GPP in forest stands with and without permafrost will help to refine parameterizations of the boreal biome in Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1980

Space fabrication demonstration system

The development effort on the composite beam cap fabricator was completed within cost and close to abbreviated goals. The design and analysis of flight weight primary and secondary beam builder structures proceeded satisfactorily but remains curtailed until further funding is made available to complete the work. The induction fastening effort remains within cost and schedule constraints. Tests of the LARC prototype induction welder is continuing in an instrumented test stand comprised of a Dumore drill press (air over oil feed for variable applied loads) and a dynamometer to measure actual welding loads. Continued testing shows that the interface screening must be well impregnated with resin to ensure proper flow when bonding graphite-acrylic lap shear samples. Specimens prepared from 0.030 inch thick graphite-polyethersulfone are also available for future induction fastening evaluation.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2001

Constraints on Variability of Brightness and Surface Magnetism on Time Scales of Decades to Centuries in the Sun and Sun-Like Stars: A Source of Potential Terrestrial Climate Variability

These four points summarize our work to date. (1) Conciliation of solar and stellar photometric variability. Previous research by us and colleagues suggested that the Sun might at present be showing unusually low photometric variability compared to other sun-like stars. Those early results would question the suitability of the technique of using sun-like stars as proxies for solar irradiance change on time scales of decades to centuries. However, our results indicate the contrary: the Sun's observed short-term (seasonal) and longterm (year-to-year) brightness variations closely agree with observed brightness variations in stars of similar mass and age. (2) We have demonstrated an inverse correlation between the global temperature of the terrestrial lower troposphere, inferred from the NASA Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) radiometers, and the total area of the Sun covered by coronal holes from January 1979 to present (up to May 2000). Variable fluxes of either solar charged particles or cosmic rays, or both, may influence the terrestrial tropospheric temperature. The geographical pattern of the correlation is consistent with our interpretation of an extra-terrestrial charged particle forcing. (3) Possible climate mechanism amplifying the impact of solar ultraviolet irradiance variations. The key points of our proposed climate hypersensitivity mechanism are: (a) The Sun is more variable in the UV (ultraviolet) than in the visible. However, the increased UV irradiance is mainly absorbed in the lower stratosphere/upper troposphere rather than at the surface. (b) Absorption in the stratosphere raises the temperature moderately around the vicinity of the tropopause, and tends to stabilize the atmosphere against vertical convective/diffusive transport, thus decreasing the flux of heat and moisture carried upward from surface. (c) The decrease in the upward convection of heat and moisture tends to raise the surface temperature because a drier upper atmosphere becomes less cloudy, which in turn allows more solar radiation to reach the Earth's surface. (4) Natural variability in an ocean-atmosphere climate model. We use a 14-region, 6-layer, global thermo-hydrodynamic ocean-atmosphere model to study natural climate variability. All the numerical experiments were performed with no change in the prescribed external boundary conditions (except for the seasonal cycle of the Sun's tilt angle). Therefore, the observed inter-annual variability is of an internal kind. The model results are helpful toward the understanding of the role of nonlinearity in climate change. We have demonstrated a range of possible climate behaviors using our newly developed ocean-atmosphere model. These include climate configurations with no interannual variability, with multi-year periodicities, with continuous chaos, or with chaotically occuring transitions between two discrete substrates. These possible modes of climate behavior are all possible for the real climate, as well as the model. We have shown that small temporary climate influences can trigger shifts both in the mean climate, and among these different types of behavior. Such shifts are not only theoretically plausible, as shown here and elsewhere; they are omnipresent in the climate record on time scales from several years to the age of the Earth. This has two apparently opposite implications for the possibility of anthropogenic global warming. First, any warming which might occur as a result of human influence would be only a fraction of the small-to-large unpredictable natural changes and changes which result from other external causes. On the other hand, small temporary influences such as human influence do have the potential of causing large permanent shifts in mean climate and interannual variability.

Baliunas, Sallie L.↗
NASA NTRS1982

MAPSAT compared to other earth-sensing concepts

The instrument systems and operational capabilities of MAPSAT are discussed. The satellite is based on LANDSAT technology and includes the following concepts: global coverage on a continuous basis; open data dissemination in reasonable time and cost; variable resolution, swath-width, stereoscopic and multispectral capabilities; 1:50,000-scale image mapping with a 20-m contour interval; continuity with LANDSAT-1,-2, and -3 including the same basic data transmission and reception system; and one-dimensional data processing.

Colvocoresses, A. P.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Simulation of PV Variability as a Function of PV Generation and Plant Size: Preprint

The deployment of photovoltaic (PV) systems continues to show significant expansion; however, this growth has brought added attention to issues around the variability of the solar resource. Both spatial and temporal variability exist. Temporal scales can range from the sub-second to multiyear, whereas spatial scales can range from a few meters to tens of kilometers. There are multiple methods described in the literature to quantify PV variability at various spatial and temporal scales. This study focuses on short-term temporal variability and uses similar approaches with the addition of PV plant size a parameter to quantify variability. The method employed here incorporates the normalization of clear- and cloudy-sky conditions and PV plant size to quantify nominal variability metrics. The distribution and fluctuations of these metrics provide relevant information that is useful for system operations. The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is used to simulate PV variability as a function of PV generation and plant size. Hypothetical but realistic system information at 33 locations is used to model PV generation by feeding NSRDB solar irradiance data to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s System Advisor Model (SAM). Over the selected region, it is found that the aggregated ramp rates for the 1-minute data are associated with standard deviations ranging from 0.002–0.055 on a daily basis; however, hourly intervals induce higher aggregated ramp rates than the other timescales. Even though minute-to-minute variations are significant for the 1-minute timescale, the standard deviation aggregated into a daily metric is smaller because of the cancellation of values.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗
NASA NTRS2018

Multiwavelength Light Curves of Two Remarkable Sagittarius A* Flares

Sgr A* , the supermassive black hole (SMBH) at the center of our Milky Way Galaxy, is known to be a variable source of X-ray, near-infrared (NIR), and submillimeter radiation and therefore a prime candidate to study the electromagnetic radiation generated by mass accretion flow onto a black hole and/or a related jet. Disentangling the power source and emission mechanisms of this variability is a central challenge to our understanding of accretion flows around SMBHs. Simultaneous multiwavelength observations of the flux variations and their time correlations can play an important role in obtaining a better understanding of possible emission mechanisms and their origin. This paper presents observations of two flares that both apparently violate the previously established patterns in the relative timing of submillimeter/NIR/X-ray flares from Sgr A* . One of these events provides the first evidence of coeval structure between NIR and submillimeter flux increases, while the second event is the first example of the sequence of submillimeter/X-ray/NIR flux increases all occurring within ∼1 hr. Each of these two events appears to upend assumptions that have been the basis of some analytic models of flaring in Sgr A* . However, it cannot be ruled out that these events, even though unusual, were just coincidental. These observations demonstrate that we do not fully understand the origin of the multiwavelength variability of Sgr A* and show that there is a continued and important need for long-term, coordinated, and precise multiwavelength observations of Sgr A* to characterize the full range of variability behavior

accretion↗
DOE OSTI2024

Investigating the ecological fallacy through sampling distributions constructed from finite populations

Correlation coefficients and linear regression values computed from group averages can differ from correlation coefficients and linear regression values computed using individual scores. This observation known as the ecological fallacy often assumes that all the individual scores are available from a population. In many situations, one must use a sample from the larger population. In such cases, the computed correlation coefficient and linear regression values will depend on the sample that is chosen and the underlying sampling distribution. The sampling distribution of correlation coefficients and linear regression values for group averages will be identical to the sampling distribution for individuals for normally distributed variables for random samples drawn from infinitely large continuous distributions. However, data that is acquired in practice is often acquired when sampling without replacement from a finite population. Our objective is to demonstrate through Monte Carlo simulations that the sampling distributions for correlation and linear regression will also be similar for individuals and group averages when sampling without replacement from normally distributed variables. These simulations suggest that when a random sample from a population is selected, the correlation coefficients and linear regression values computed from individual scores will not be more accurate in estimating the entire population values compared to samples when group averages are used as long as the sample size is the same.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Convectively coupled Rossby–Gravity waves in a field campaign: How they are captured in reanalysis products

Abstract Convectively coupled equatorial waves are a significant source of atmospheric variability in the tropics. Current numerical models continue to struggle in simulating the coupled diabatic heating fields that are responsible for the development and maintenance of these waves. This study investigates how the diabatic fields associated with Mixed Rossby–Gravity waves (MRGs) are represented in four reanalysis products by using a unique observational dataset from the TRMM‐KWAJEX (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission‐Kwajalein Experiment) field campaign. These reanalyses include ERA5, Japanese 55‐year Reanalysis (JRA‐55), Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), and Modern‐Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). We found that all four reanalyses captured the MRG structures in winds and temperature, and to a lesser degree in the humidity field except in the boundary layer. However, only the ERA5 and MERRA reanalyses captured the gradual rise and succession of the diabatic heating from boundary layer turbulence, shallow convection, cumulus congestus, and deep convection within the waves. ERA5 is the only product that also captured the gradual rise of the subgrid‐scale vertical transport of moist static energy. All reanalysis products underestimated the diabatic heating from cumulus congestus. Results provide observational basis on what aspects of MRG can be trusted and what cannot in the reanalysis products.

Wang, Xiaocong↗
DOE OSTI2020

Model predictive control for voltage restoration in microgrids using temporal logic specifications

Power system operation will encounter numerous voltage variabilities as the proliferation of renewable energy continues. Real-time monitoring and communication technologies can potentially improve voltage stability by enabling the rapid detection of voltage deviations and the implementation of corrective actions. These corrective actions will only be effective in restoring stability if they are chosen in a timely and scalable manner. This paper considers the problem of power systems’ load voltage control in order to simultaneously address both magnitude and time voltage specifications. In order to comply with grid codes and avoid unnecessary relay protection actions, a model predictive control (MPC)-based control strategy employing temporal logic specifications (TLSs) is proposed. The TLSs strategy is introduced as a formalism to control the voltage variation at a critical load bus against operational bounds over time. The control objective is to schedule optimal control input signals from the available supportive energy storage systems, which provide reactive power injections, leading to satisfying the specified finite-time restoration described by the TLSs with minimal control efforts. The simulation results display that the TLSs strategy for power systems’ voltage control synthesis is extremely significant.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning to alleviate Hubbard-model sign problems

Lattice Monte Carlo calculations of interacting systems on nonbipartite lattices exhibit an oscillatory imaginary phase known as the phase or sign problem, even at zero chemical potential. One method to alleviate the sign problem is to analytically continue the integration region of the state variables into the complex plane via holomorphic flow equations. For asymptotically large flow times, the state variables approach manifolds of constant imaginary phase known as Lefschetz thimbles. Furthermore, flowing such variables and calculating the ensuing Jacobian is a computationally demanding procedure. In this paper, we demonstrate that neural networks can be trained to parametrize suitable manifolds for this class of sign problem and drastically reduce the computational cost for different severely afflicted small volume systems. In particular, we apply our method to the Hubbard model on the triangle and tetrahedron, both of which are nonbipartite. At strong interaction strengths and modest temperatures, the tetrahedron suffers from a severe sign problem that cannot be overcome with standard reweighting techniques, while it quickly yields to our method. We benchmark our results with exact calculations and comment on future directions of this work.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cloud Type and Life Stage Dependency of Liquid–Ice Mass Partitioning in Mixed-Phase Clouds

This paper analyzes the temperature, cloud type, and life stage dependencies of phase partitioning in mixed-phase clouds spanning tropics, midlatitudes, and the Arctic, using data from ground-based remote sensing measurements in Alaska and aircraft measurements from three field campaigns. The results show: (1) The liquid fraction in Arctic stratiform clouds decreased from 1 to 0.6 between 0 °C and −30 °C and was lower in spring because of the higher dust occurrence in Barrow, Alaska; (2) In wintertime orographic clouds, the liquid fraction was greater than 0.8; (3) Phase partitioning in convective clouds varied significantly with life stages. In the developing stage, it decreased from 1 to 0.3 between −5 °C and −15 °C, indicating rapid ice generation, while at the mature and dissipating stages, the liquid fractions were lower; (4) The stratiform regions of mesoscale convective systems were dominated by ice, with liquid fractions lower than 0.2; and (5) The variability of phase partitioning varied for different cloud types. In stratiform clouds, liquid dominated at warm temperatures. As the temperature decreased, an ice-dominated region was more frequently observed, while the occurrence of the mixed-phase region remained low. For convective clouds, the variability of phase partitioning was controlled by continuous glaciation with decreasing temperature and life cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1975

Time-dependent hydrodynamic phenomena in the envelopes of the Be stars

Temporal and angular variations in the motion and distribution of circumstellar material about Be stars are studied by means of a simple hydrodynamical approach. The flow variables are each written as the sum of a known, steady-state axisymmetric term and a smaller component which contains both temporal and angular dependence. Substitution of these dichotomous expressions for the flow variables into Euler's equation and the continuity equation leads to a set of linearized equations for the terms which depend on time and angle. Solutions can be found to a somewhat approximated version of the linearized equations, and these solutions explain the qualitative features of the observed short-time variations.

Morgan, T. H.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Comparisons of pilot performance in simulated and actual flight

Five highly experienced professional pilots performed instrument landing system approaches under simulated instrument flight conditions in a Cessna 172 airplane and in a Link-Singer GAT-1 simulator while under the influence of orally administered secobarbital (0, 100, and 200 mg). Tracking performance in two axes and airspeed control were evaluated continuously during each approach. Error and RMS variability were about half as large in the simulator as in the airplane. The observed data were more strongly associated with the drug level in the simulator than in the airplane. Further, the drug-related effects were more consistent in the simulator. Improvement in performance suggestive of learning effects were seen in the simulator, but not in actual flight.

Billings, C. E.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Design and simulation of stratified probability digital receiver with application to the multipath communication

One approach to the problem of simplifying complex nonlinear filtering algorithms is through using stratified probability approximations where the continuous probability density functions of certain random variables are represented by discrete mass approximations. This technique is developed in this paper and used to simplify the filtering algorithms developed for the optimum receiver for signals corrupted by both additive and multiplicative noise.

Deal, J. H.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Relativistic jets and the continuum emission in QSOs

The radio through optical, and possibly X-ray, emission of QSOs and active galactic nuclei is analytically interpreted in terms of a relativistic jet containing high-energy particles and a magnetic field. Parallel to the jet axis, a strong, compact radio source and strongly polarized radiation are detected, while larger viewing angles relative to the jet axis result in spectral dominance by the central region containing the 'energy machine' which drives the energy flux in the jet. It is shown that the relativistic jet model can explain the association of OVVs with strong, variable radio sources, strong optical polarization, and continuity of the radio to optical spectra.

Marscher, A. P.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Internal variability of an energy-balance model with delayed albedo effects

A simple, deterministic energy-balance model with possible relevance to climatic variations on the time scale of glaciation cycles, is presented. The lag between ice-sheet extent and zonally-averaged temperature is modeled as a time delay in the ice-albedo feedback. The model exhibits self-sustained oscillations which are quasi-periodic or aperiodic in character. Fourier spectra of solutions have the features of many paleoclimatic records: peaks of variable height and width superimposed on a continuous, red-noise type background.

Bhattacharya, K.↗