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The 3-0 rotation-vibration band of carbon monoxide was identified in the near-infrared spectrum of Titan. A preliminary mixing ratio of CO/N2 = 0.00006 was determined. This result supports the probable detection of CO by Samuelson et al and strengthens possible analogies between the atmosphere of Titan and conditions on the primitive earth. Previously announced in STAR as N83-14039
The nature of the scattering and reflection mechanisms that give rise to the MST radar echoes from the clear air is essential in the correct interpretation of the data about winds, waves, turbulence and stability in the atmosphere. There are two main aspects: the nature of the targets the radar sees and their generation mechanisms; and the signatures of the radar signals returned from the different targets. Volume scatterings from isotropic or anisotropic turbulence, and partial reflections from horizontally stratified, sharp refractive index gradients are believed the main contributors to radar echoes. Combined effects from all the mechanisms probably produce the observed data. The signature of the echo signals for these different scatterers under realistic experimental conditions should be studied. It is hoped from these studies, the nature of the targets can be better understood, and related to atmospheric dynamic processes.
The thermodynamic stability of clathrate hydrate is calculated to predict the formation conditions corresponding to a range of solar system parameters. The calculations were performed using the statistical mechanical theory developed by van der Waals and Platteeuw (1959) and existing experimental data concerning clathrate hydrate and its components. Dissociation pressures and partition functions (Langmuir constants) are predicted at low pressure for CO clathrate (hydrate) using the properties of chemicals similar to CO. It is argued that nonsolar but well constrained noble gas abundances may be measurable by the Galileo spacecraft in the Jovian atmosphere if the observed carbon enhancement is due to bombardment of the atmosphere by clathrate-bearing planetesimals sometime after planetary formation. The noble gas abundances of the Jovian satellite Titan are predicted, assuming that most of the methane in Titan is accreted as clathrate. It is suggested that under thermodynamically appropriate conditions, complete clathration of water ice could have occurred in high-pressure nebulas around giant planets, but probably not in the outer solar nebula. The stability of clathrate in other pressure ranges is also discussed.
The thermodynamic stability of clathrate hydrate is calculated to predict the formation conditions corresponding to a range of solar system parameters. The calculations were performed using the statistical mechanical theory developed by van der Waals and Platteeuw (1959) and existing experimental data concerning clathrate hydrate and its components. Dissociation pressures and partition functions (Langmuir constants) are predicted at low pressure for CO clathrate (hydrate) using the properties of chemicals similar to CO. It is argued that nonsolar but well constrained noble gas abundances may be measurable by the Galileo spacecraft in the Jovian atmosphere if the observed carbon enhancement is due to bombardment of the atmosphere by clathrate-bearing planetesimals sometime after planetary formation. The noble gas abundances of the Jovian satellite Titan are predicted, assuming that most of the methane in Titan is accreted as clathrate. It is suggested that under thermodynamically appropriate conditions, complete clathration of water ice could have occurred in high-pressure nebulas around giant planets, but probably not in the outer solar nebula. The stability of clathrate in other pressure ranges is also discussed.
This paper is concerned with the identification of a system in the presence of several error sources. Following some basic definitions, the notion of 'near-equivalence in probability' is introduced using the concept of near-equivalence between a model and process. Necessary and sufficient conditions for the identifiability of system parameters are given. The effect of structural error on the parameter estimates for both deterministic and stochastic cases are considered.
The particulate contamination history of the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) can be resolved by careful analysis of particle types, the LDEF time line, evidence of the relationship between particles and the surface of the LDEF, and a consideration of probable sources. This work is far from complete but was initiated as part of the characterization of the condition of experimental trays that were returned to principle investigators for their analysis. The work presented in this photo-essay is continuing and will be updated in subsequent reports to NASA and at future technical meetings.
It was clear long before the Apollo missions that a darkening process occurs on the moon. However, its nature remains controversial and elusive. Current evidence implies that the darkening is associated with, and is probably caused by, submicroscopic metallic iron in the regolith. Questions discussed at the workshop include: (1) under what conditions will impact vitrification produce a dark glass; (2) what is the role of the submicroscopic metallic Fe (SMFe) in the lunar darkening process; (3) how is the SMFe produced; (4) is there a significant component of the regolith that has been deposited from a vapor, if so, what form is it in, and how can it be recognized, what are its effects on the chemistry of the regolith; (5) how do the processes of impact vitrification, vaporization, sputtering, and SMFe production vary as a function of distance from the sun and location in planetary magnetospheres; and (6) what other processes might affect optical properties. Ices have lower melting and boiling temperatures and sputtering yields several orders of magnitude larger than silicates. Hence, analogous processes will occur to an even greater extent on satellites of the outer planets, and these questions are relevant to those bodies as well.
We have recently shown that conscious adrenalectomized rats exhibit nearly normal recovery of arterial blood pressure during the 5 h after hemorrhage. In those experiments, it appeared that a previous reduction in food intake might have compromised the recovery of blood pressure and increased mortality. These experiments were designed to test in conscious sham-adrenalectomized (control) and adrenalectomized rats prepared with indwelling arterial and venous cannulae: 1. The effects of a 20- to 24-h fast (compared to rats fed ab libitum) on the mobilization of plasma substrates and recovery of arterial blood pressure after a 15 ml/kg - 5 min hemorrhage, and 2. Vascular responsivity to pressor agents in fed or fasted groups before or 2 h after hemorrhage. In all rats hemorrhage resulted in decreased arterial pressure and heart rate. Arterial pressure recovered to near normal in both fed and fasted control groups and in the led adrenalectomized rats, and all of these rats survived for 24 h after stress. By contrast, in the fasted adrenalectomized rats, arterial pressure recovered only during the first 1.5 - 2 h and then failed, resulting in 100% mortality by 3-5 h. Compared to the other three groups, in which substrate levels either increased or remained fairly stable, plasma glucose and beta-hydoxybutyrate concentrations fell steadily, from 1.5-2 h after hemorrhage until death occurred in the fasted adrenalectomized rats. Basal ACTH concentrations were elevated cormpared to control values in both adrenalectomized groups (fed and fasted). Hemorrhage caused increases in plasma ACTH in all groups; the magnitude of the responses did not differ among the groups. The dilution of Evans' blue dve after hemorrhage (used as an index of fluid movement into the vascular space) was not different in contol and adrenalectomized rats (either fed or fasted). There were no differences in pressor responses to phenylephrine, vasopressin, or angiotensin-II between the fed and fasted condition in the control rats either before or after hemorrhage. There was a fasting-associated decrease in vascular responsivity, to vasopressin, but normal responsivity to phenylephrine and angiotensin-II, in the adrenal-ectomized rats both before and after hemorrhage. We conclude that: (1) since fed adrenalectomized rats all survived the stress, adrenal hormones are not required for survival unless fasting is a prior condition; (2) vascular responsiveness to phenylephrine and angiotensin-II is not altered by fasting and is, therefore, probably not the proximate cause of cardiovascular svstem failure; and (3) from these data we cannot distinguish between a failure in substrate supply and a failure in some component of the cardiovascular svstem, other than vascular responsivity, that results in death after hemorrhage in fasted adrenalectomized rats.
Observation of the size distribution of transient cavities in computer simulations of water, n-hexane, and n-dodecane under benchtop conditions shows that the sizes of cavities are more sharply defined in liquid water but the most-probable-size cavities are about the same size in each of these liquids. The calculated solvent atomic density in contact with these cavities shows that water applies more force per unit area of cavity surface than do the hydrocarbon liquids. This contact density, or "squeezing" force, reaches a maximum near cavity diameters of 2.4 angstroms. The results for liquid water are compared to the predictions of simple theories and, in addition, to results for a reference simple liquid. The numerical data for water at a range of temperatures are analyzed to extract a surface free energy contribution to the work of formation of atomic-size cavities. Comparison with the liquid-vapor interfacial tensions of the model liquids studied here indicates that the surface free energies extracted for atomic-size cavities cannot be accurately identified with the macroscopic surface tensions of the systems.
Tree cover delineation is a useful instrument in deriving Above Ground Biomass (AGB) density estimates from Very High Resolution (VHR) airborne imagery data. Numerous algorithms have been designed to address this problem, but most of them do not scale to these datasets, which are of the order of terabytes. In this paper, we present a semi-automated probabilistic framework for the segmentation and classification of 1-m National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) for tree-cover delineation for the whole of Continental United States, using a High Performance Computing Architecture. Classification is performed using a multi-layer Feedforward Backpropagation Neural Network and segmentation is performed using a Statistical Region Merging algorithm. The results from the classification and segmentation algorithms are then consolidated into a structured prediction framework using a discriminative undirected probabilistic graphical model based on Conditional Random Field, which helps in capturing the higher order contextual dependencies between neighboring pixels. Once the final probability maps are generated, the framework is updated and re-trained by relabeling misclassified image patches. This leads to a significant improvement in the true positive rates and reduction in false positive rates. The tree cover maps were generated for the whole state of California, spanning a total of 11,095 NAIP tiles covering a total geographical area of 163,696 sq. miles. The framework produced true positive rates of around 88% for fragmented forests and 74% for urban tree cover areas, with false positive rates lower than 2% for both landscapes. Comparative studies with the National Land Cover Data (NLCD) algorithm and the LiDAR canopy height model (CHM) showed the effectiveness of our framework for generating accurate high-resolution tree-cover maps.
Because of planetary encounters, the motion of near-Earth asteroids is chaotic and small differences in the initial conditions tend to diverge exponentially. Linear approximations for propagating orbital uncertainties can lead to inaccurate estimates of the probability of an Earth collision. We present a novel fully nonlinear strategy for estimating the probability of an asteroid impact using sequential Monte Carlo layers. The method first explores a low-resolution layer to locate potentially relevant regions. Then, we conduct localized searches on deeper layers with higher resolution. The method retains the accuracy of brute-force Monte Carlo sampling while reducing the computational cost by only sampling relevant regions.
Long-duration, deep-space exploration missions present significant challenges to crew health and performance. These challenges include the individual and combined effects of microgravity, radiation exposure, isolation, limited resources (mass, volume, power, data, and crew time), limited options for evacuation, and those associated with delayed or constrained communications. Each of these challenges necessitates greater degrees of crew autonomy as our distance from Earth increases. Specifically, as communication delays intensify - and evacuation capability diminishes the further we explore space - the unqualified need for Earth-independent medical operations focused on autonomous diagnosis, treatment and prevention will become key to mission continuation and success. This need will be especially true should a crewmember become ill or injured wherein treatment and disposition “in-situ” ultimately falls to the crew itself to determine. To augment the requisite knowledge, skills, and abilities (KSAs) of a time-constrained exploration mission crew operating under stressful conditions, combatting fatigue, and facing a potential medical crisis, a robust clinical decision support system (CDSS) is a probable solution. A CDSS would facilitate, guide, and inform Earth-independent medical operations while assisting crewmembers through various clinical presentations. The CDSS would allow crewmembers to take advantage of pre-mission training tied to the in-flight/in-mission use of pre-planned protocols that offer both a range of diagnostic options and “just-in-time” (refamiliarization) training and assistance. CDSS will expand such capabilities by improving the utility and effectiveness of various available diagnostic, treatment, and health maintenance tools, techniques, and measures.
The Bayesian passive microwave retrievals of snowfall often rely on mathematical matching of the observed vectors of brightness temperature with an a priori database of precipitation profiles and their corresponding brightness temperatures. Mathematical proximity does not necessarily lead to consistent retrievals due to limited information content of passive microwave observations. This paper defines imposter (genuine) vectors of brightness temperature as those that are mathematically close but physically inconsistent (consistent) and characterizes them through the Silhouette Coefficient (SC) analysis. The Neyman–Pearson (NP) hypothesis testing is used to separate the imposter and genuine brightness temperatures based on their associated values of cloud ice (IWP) and liquid water path (LWP), given by coincidences of CloudSat Profiling Radar (CPR) and the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI). The study determines thresholds for IWP and LWP that allow optimal identification of imposter brightness temperatures of non-snowing and snowing clouds, which can mislead the passive microwave retrieval algorithms to falsely detect or miss the snowfall events. It is demonstrated that emission signal of supercooled liquid water in snowing clouds can lead to improved passive microwave retrieval of snowfall and conditioning the retrievals to the cloud IWP and LWP can result in marginal correction of the snowfall detection probability; however, reduce the probability of false alarm by 6%–8% over sea ice and open oceans.
In order to support manned spaceflight safety requirements, the Space Launch System (SLS) has defined program-level requirements for key systems to ensure successful operation under single fault conditions. The SLS program has also levied requirements relating to the capability of the Inertial Navigation System to detect a second fault. This detection functionality is required in order to feed abort analysis and ensure crew safety. Increases in navigation state error due to sensor faults in a purely inertial system can drive the vehicle outside of its operational as-designed environmental and performance envelope. As this performance outside of first fault detections is defined and controlled at the vehicle level, it allows for the use of system level margins to increase probability of mission success on the operational edges of the design. A top-down approach is utilized to assess vehicle sensitivity to second sensor faults. A wide range of failure scenarios in terms of both fault magnitude and time is used for assessment. The approach also utilizes a schedule to change fault detection thresholds autonomously. These individual values are optimized along a nominal trajectory in order to maximize probability of mission success in terms of system-level insertion requirements while minimizing the probability of false positives. This paper will describe an approach integrating Genetic Algorithms and Monte Carlo analysis to tune the threshold parameters to maximize vehicle resilience to second fault events over an ascent mission profile. The analysis approach and performance assessment and verification will be presented to demonstrate the applicability of this approach to second fault detection optimization to maximize mission probability of success through taking advantage of existing margin.
The design, development, and use of a focused-beam radar to measure the electromagnetic bias introduced by the scattering of radar waves by a roughened water surface are discussed. The bias measurements were made over wide ranges of environmental conditions in a wavetank laboratory. Wave-elevation data were provided by standard laboratory capacitance probes. Backscattered radar power measurements coincident in time and space with the elevation data were produced by the radar. The two data sets are histogrammed to produce probability density functions for elevation and radar reflectivity, from which the electromagnetic bias is computed. The experimental results demonstrate that the electromagnetic bias is quite variable over the wide range of environmental conditions that can be produced in the laboratory. The data suggest that the bias is dependent upon the local wind field and on the amplitude and frequency of any background wave field that is present.
Each morning, the forecasters at the National Weather Service in Melbourn, FL (NWS MLB) produce an experimental cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning threat index map for their county warning area (CWA) that is posted to their web site (http://www.srh.weather.gov/mlb/ghwo/lightning.shtml) . Given the hazardous nature of lightning in central Florida, especially during the warm season months of May-September, these maps help users factor the threat of lightning, relative to their location, into their daily plans. The maps are color-coded in five levels from Very Low to Extreme, with threat level definitions based on the probability of lightning occurrence and the expected amount of CG activity. On a day in which thunderstorms are expected, there are typically two or more threat levels depicted spatially across the CWA. The locations of relative lightning threat maxima and minima often depend on the position and orientation of the low-level ridge axis, forecast propagation and interaction of sea/lake/outflow boundaries, expected evolution of moisture and stability fields, and other factors that can influence the spatial distribution of thunderstorms over the CWA. The lightning threat index maps are issued for the 24-hour period beginning at 1200 UTC (0700 AM EST) each day with a grid resolution of 5 km x 5 km. Product preparation is performed on the AWIPS Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE), which is the standard NWS platform for graphical editing. Currently, the forecasters create each map manually, starting with a blank map. To improve efficiency of the forecast process, NWS MLB requested that the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) create gridded warm season lightning climatologies that could be used as first-guess inputs to initialize lightning threat index maps. The gridded values requested included CG strike densities and frequency of occurrence stratified by synoptic-scale flow regime. The intent is to increase consistency between forecasters while enabling them to focus on the mesoscale detail of the forecast, ultimately benefiting the end-users of the product. Several studies took place at the Florida State University (FSU) and NWS Tallahassee (TAE) for which they created daily flow regimes using Florida 1200 UTC synoptic soundings and CG strike densities from National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) data. The densities were created on a 2.5 km x 2.5 km grid for every hour of every day during the warm seasons in the years 1989-2004. The grids encompass an area that includes the entire state of Florida and adjacent Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico waters. Personnel at the two organizations provided this data and supporting software for the work performed by the AMU. The densities were first stratified by flow regime, then by time in 1-, 3-, 6-, 12-, and 24-hour increments while maintaining the 2.5 km x 2.5 km grid resolution. A CG frequency of occurrence was calculated for each stratification and grid box by counting the number of days with lightning and dividing by the total number of days in the data set. New CG strike densities were calculated for each stratification and grid box by summing the strike number values over all warm seasons, then normalized by dividing the summed values by the number of lightning days. This makes the densities conditional on whether lightning occurred. The frequency climatology values will be used by forecasters as proxy inputs for lightning prObability, while the density climatology values will be used for CG amount. In addition to the benefits outlined above, these climatologies will provide improved temporal and spatial resolution, expansion of the lightning threat area to include adjacent coastal waters, and potential to extend the forecast to include the day-2 period. This presentation will describe the lightning threat index map, discuss the work done to create the maps initialized with climatological guidance, and show examples of the climatological CG lightning densities and frequencies of occurren based on flow regime.
Traditionally, aircraft lightning strikes were a major aviation safety issue. However, the increasing use of composite materials and the use of digital avionics for flight critical systems will require that more specific lightning protection measures be incorporated in the design of such aircraft in order to maintain the excellent lightning safety record presently enjoyed by transport aircraft. In addition, several recent lightning mishaps, most notably the loss of the Atlas/Centaur-67 vehicle at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida in March 1987, have shown the susceptibility of aircraft and launch vehicles to the phenomenon of vehicle-triggered lightning. The recent findings of the NASA Storm Hazards Program were reviewed as they pertain to the atmospheric conditions conducive to aircraft lightning strikes. These data are then compared to recent summaries of lightning strikes to operational aircraft fleets. Finally, the new launch commit criteria for triggered lightning being used by NASA and the U.S. Defense Department are summarized. The NASA Research data show that the greatest probability of a direct strike in a thunderstorm occurs at ambient temperatures of about -40 C. Relative precipitation and turbulence levels were characterized as negligible to light for these conditions. However, operational fleet data have shown that most aircraft lightning strikes in routine operations occur at temperatures near the freezing level in non-cumulonimbus clouds. The non-thunderstorm environment was not the subject of dedicated airborne lightning research.
Measurement uncertainty is defined as a “non-negative parameter characterizing the dispersion of the quantity values being attributed to a measurand”. It is most common that the uncertainties of GAW hourly measurements, such as greenhouse gas measurements, are reported as standard deviations derived from individual sampling at a higher time resolution (e.g., 1 min). In contrast, the uncertainties of GAW measurements of reactive gases and aerosol properties are reported in percentiles covering the same probability. A quick look at hourly CO 2 data from Cape Grim, Australia yielded some interesting findings: the hourly standard deviation is, on average, more than a factor of 10 higher for the measurements under non-background conditions (over 50% observations), while the difference in average CO 2 amount fraction was less than 2 ppm. The dramatic contrast cannot be explained by the difference in measurement uncertainties, but can largely be attributed the natural variability, or episodic ambient CO 2 variation reflecting changes in meteorological conditions or emissions. These initial findings motivated a more in-depth analysis of the ground-based measurements of trace gases and aerosol properties. This analysis will be using continuous 1 min ground site observations to construct time averaged statistical indicators to evaluate whether the standard deviation is adequate to represent the dispersion, especially under marked influence by natural variability. The suitability of this representation can be determined by examining the difference between the standard deviation and percentiles encompassing the same probability. We will examine time intervals of 1 hour, 3 hours, and 24 hours, with the latter time intervals chosen to match those commonly used in model assessments. We will also investigate how natural variability can alter the probability distribution of the measurands and how adequate the quadrature propagation of uncertainties is under these conditions. The results will include several trace gases (e.g., CO 2 , CO, O 3 , and NO 2 ) with a range of measurement techniques (e.g., PANDORA, in situ), atmospheric lifetimes, and aerosol properties (e.g. scattering coefficient). The findings from this analysis should provide some useful feedback on the best practices for uncertainty reporting.