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Results for “conditional probability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 559 records · Page 31
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Unraveling the Early-Stage Ordering of Krypton Solid Bubbles in Molybdenum: A Multimodal Study

Self-organization of defects such as fission gas bubbles in materials can lead to high inventory capacity for fission gas storage and help mitigate swelling caused by fission gases in nuclear fuel materials under radiation in nuclear reactors. Here, we report the physical mechanism of self-organization of krypton (Kr) gas bubbles in molybdenum (Mo) under ion implantation. The ion fluence and temperature-dependent formation of Kr solid bubble superlattice (SBS) in Mo were investigated by using both synchrotron-based small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). Early stage self-organization of gas bubbles is observed at a fluence of 2.5 × 10 16 ions/cm 2 at temperatures of 300–400 °C. The bubble lattice constant increases with increasing implantation temperature from 300 to 400 °C. Both experiments and atomic kinetic Monte Carlo modeling indicate that the Kr solid bubbles are weakly ordered in comparison to previously studied helium (He) gas bubble superlattice (GBS) while the lattice constant are relatively smaller for Kr SBS compared to that of He GBS. The irradiation conditions suggest that spinodal decomposition, which is a form of phase separation, probably precedes gas bubble ordering in Mo. Altogether, our work sheds light on the formation mechanism of noble gas superlattice toward the development of radiation-tolerant materials which are important for the design of advanced nuclear reactors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

The PDF perspective on the tracer-matter connection: Lagrangian bias and non-Poissonian shot noise

ABSTRACT We study the connection of matter density and its tracers from the probability density function (PDF) perspective. One aspect of this connection is the conditional expectation value 〈δtracer|δm〉 when averaging both tracer and matter density over some scale. We present a new way to incorporate a Lagrangian bias expansion of this expectation value into standard frameworks for modelling the PDF of density fluctuations and counts-in-cells statistics. Using N-body simulations and mock galaxy catalogues we confirm the accuracy of this expansion and compare it to the more commonly used Eulerian parametrization. For haloes hosting typical luminous red galaxies, the Lagrangian model provides a significantly better description of 〈δtracer|δm〉 at second order in perturbations. A second aspect of the matter-tracer connection is shot-noise, i.e. the scatter of tracer density around 〈δtracer|δm〉. It is well known that this noise can be significantly non-Poissonian and we validate the performance of a more general, two-parameter shot-noise model for different tracers and simulations. Both parts of our analysis are meant to pave the way for forthcoming applications to survey data.

Friedrich, Oliver↗
DOE OSTI2020

Astromers: Nuclear Isomers in Astrophysics

In this work, we develop a method to compute thermally mediated transition rates between the ground state and long-lived isomers in nuclei. We also establish criteria delimiting a thermalization temperature above which a nucleus may be considered a single species and below which it must be treated as two separate species: a ground-state species and an astrophysical isomer ("astromer") species. Below the thermalization temperature, the destruction rates dominate the internal transition rates between the ground state and the isomer. If the destruction rates also differ greatly from one another, the nuclear levels fall out of or fail to reach thermal equilibrium. Without thermal equilibrium, there may not be a safe assumption about the distribution of occupation probability among the nuclear levels when computing nuclear reaction rates. In these conditions, the isomer has astrophysical consequences and should be treated as a separate astromer species which evolves separately from the ground state in a nucleosynthesis network. We apply our transition-rate methods and perform sensitivity studies on a few well-known astromers. We also study transitions in several other isomers of likely astrophysical interest.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1972

ZM-21 magnesium alloy corrosion properties and cryogenic to elevated temperature mechanical properties

The mechanical properties of bare ZM-21 magnesium alloy flat tensile specimens were determined for test temperatures of +400 F, +300 F, +200 F, +80 F, 0 F, -100 F, -200 F, and -320 F. The ultimate tensile and yield strengths of the material increased with decreasing temperature with a corresponding reduction in elongation values. Stress corrosion tests performed under: (1) MSFC atmospheric conditions; (2) 95% relative humidity; and (3) submerged in 100 ppm chloride solution for 8 weeks indicated that the alloy is not susceptible to stress corrosion. The corrosion tests indicated that the material is susceptible to attack by crevice corrosion in high humidity and chemical type attack by chloride solution. Atmospheric conditions at MSFC did not produce any adverse effects on the material, probably due to the rapid formation of a protective oxide coating. In both the mechanical properties and the stress corrosion evaluations the test specimens which were cut transverse to the rolling direction had superior properties when compared to the longitudinal properties.

Montana, J. W.↗
NASA NTRS1971

Contamination of planets by nonsterile flight hardware.

The various factors about space missions and spacecraft involved in the study of nonsterile space flight hardware with respect to their effects on planetary quarantine are reviewed. It is shown that methodology currently exists to evaluate the various potential contamination sources and to take appropriate steps in the design of spacecraft ha rdware and mission parameters so that quarantine constraints are met. This work should be done for each program so that the latest knowledge pertaining to various biological questions is utilized, and so that the specific hardware designs of the program can be assessed. The general trend of specific recommendations include: (1) biasing the launch trajectory away from planet to assure against accidental impact of the spacecraft; (2) selecting planetary orbits that meet quarantine requirements - both for accidental impact and for minimizing contamination probabilities due to ejecta; and (3) manufacturing and handling spacecraft under cleanliness conditions assuring minimum bioload.

Wolfson, R. P.↗
NASA NTRS1973

The hydroxyl emissions in relation to the dynamical processes of the atmosphere

Ground and airborne hydroxyl emission observations were made in the northern polar regions. The ground observations were made at Ester Dome, Alaska, and the airborne observations were made during the 1969 NASA Airborne Expedition. The analysis of some of the data that were acquired has lead to the following conclusions: (1) Airglow OH measurements show no appreciable change with latitude or longitude. (2) Diurnal changes at northern latitudes are similar to those observed in midlatitude regions. (3) Two types of OH enhancements were observed photometrically in the 9370 A region - one associated with visible aurora, and the other uncorrelated with visible aurora. High resolution spectra under both inactive and active conditions indicate that the OH enhancements seen photometrically in active aurorae are probably due to contamination of the filter pass bands by the unexpected enhancement of the NI multiplet lines at 9387 A and 9393 A. All previously reported aurorally associated enhancements are consequently suspect.

Romick, G. J.↗
NASA NTRS1981

The demography of extraterrestrial civilizations

Studies carried out within the last ten years on the nature and distribution of extraterrestrial intelligent life are reviewed. Arguments for the absence of intelligent life in the Galaxy based on the assumption that at least some of these would have engaged in colonization and for the presence of colonies of extraterrestrials in some undiscovered location in the solar system are presented, and it is noted that both these views rest on the notion that interstellar travel can be achieved at high velocities in very large vehicles, which has been questioned. Alternative suggestions concerning interstellar exploration by automated probes and the possible extended time scale and motivation for galactic colonization are pointed out. Attention is then given to arguments for the extreme smallness of one of the factors in the Drake equation used to estimate the number of communicative extraterrestrial civilizations in the Galaxy, including the frequency of single stars, the likelihood that planets with the correct initial composition and conditions for life are at the proper distance from their stars, the probability of the formation of DNA and the origin of life, and the time for the evolution of intelligence. It is concluded that it seems likely that other civilizations exist in the Galaxy, although the number and distribution of such civilizations may only be determined by the detection of one or more examples.

Billingham, J.↗
NASA NTRS1984

A study of environmental characterization of conventional and advanced aluminum alloys for selection and design. Phase 2: The breaking load test method

A technique is demonstrated for accelerated stress corrosion testing of high strength aluminum alloys. The method offers better precision and shorter exposure times than traditional pass fail procedures. The approach uses data from tension tests performed on replicate groups of smooth specimens after various lengths of exposure to static stress. The breaking strength measures degradation in the test specimen load carrying ability due to the environmental attack. Analysis of breaking load data by extreme value statistics enables the calculation of survival probabilities and a statistically defined threshold stress applicable to the specific test conditions. A fracture mechanics model is given which quantifies depth of attack in the stress corroded specimen by an effective flaw size calculated from the breaking stress and the material strength and fracture toughness properties. Comparisons are made with experimental results from three tempers of 7075 alloy plate tested by the breaking load method and by traditional tests of statistically loaded smooth tension bars and conventional precracked specimens.

Sprowls, D. O.↗
NASA NTRS1985

An observational study of a mesoscale area of convection under weak synoptic-scale forcing

This is a case study of a mesoscale area of convection which began at night over western Kansas on September 2, 1982 and lasted until the afternoon of September 3. Evidence from analyses of surface, upper-air radar, and satellite observations suggests that the thunderstorms probably formed in response to the lifting of an elevated layer of conditional instability. The lifting can be attributed qualitatively to quasi-geostrophic ascending motion resulting from a shallow layer of warm advection near 60 kPa. Two possible sources of moisture were midlevel moisture which had been advected around an upstream ridge and a localized area of turbulent transport of water vapor from below. The convective event could not have been forecast with synoptic-scale, mandatory-level analyses alone; it was difficult to explain even with detailed analyses at other levels.

Bluestein, H. B.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Recombination-line intensities for hydrogenic ions. I - Case B calculations for H I and He II

Assuming Case B of Baker and Menzel (1938), the relative intensities of H I and He II recombination lines are determined for a larger range of temperature and density than previously considered and with the upper principle quantum number up to 50 and the lower number up to 29. Full collisional effects are included, and new collision strengths for the n = 1, 2, and 3 states of He(+) are presented. Case B theory is found to be invalidated for collisional excitation of the n = 3 levels from both n = 1 and n = 2 states under certain conditions which depend upon electron density and the Lyman-alpha escape probability, and the regimes of temperature and density for which Case B is valid are also considered.

Hummer, D. G.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Probabilistic structural analysis methods and applications

An advanced algorithm for simulating the probabilistic distribution of structural responses due to statistical uncertainties in loads, geometry, material properties, and boundary conditions is reported. The method effectively combines an advanced algorithm for calculating probability levels for multivariate problems (fast probability integration) together with a general-purpose finite-element code for stress, vibration, and buckling analysis. Application is made to a space propulsion system turbine blade for which the geometry and material properties are treated as random variables.

Cruse, T. A.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Parallel electric fields detected via conjugate electron echoes during the Echo 7 sounding rocket flight

Electron detectors on the Echo 7 active sounding rocket experiment measured 'conjugate echoes' resulting from artificial electron beam injections. Analysis of the drift motion of the electrons after a complete bounce leads to measurements of the magnetospheric convection electric field mapped to ionospheric altitudes. The magnetospheric field was highly variable, changing by tens of mV/m on time scales of as little as hundreds of millisec. While the smallest-scale magnetospheric field irregularities were mapped out by ionospheric conductivity, larger-scale features were enhanced by up to 50 mV/m in the ionosphere. The mismatch between magnetospheric and ionspheric convection fields indicates a violation of the equipotential field line condition. The parallel fields occurred in regions roughly 10 km across and probably supported a total potential drop of 10-100 V.

Nemzek, R. J.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Evaluation of Kapton pyrolysis, arc tracking, and arc propagation on the Space Station Freedom (SSF) solar array Flexible Current Carrier (FCC)

Recent studies involving the use of polyimide Kapton coated wires indicate that if a momentary electrical short circuit occurs between two wires, sufficient heating of the Kapton can occur to thermally char (pyrolyze) the Kapton. Such charred Kapton has sufficient electrical conductivity to create an arc which tracks down the wires and possibly propagates to adjoining wires. These studies prompted an investigation to ascertain the likelihood of the Kapton pyrolysis, arc tracking and propagation phenomena, and the magnitude of destruction conceivably inflicted on Space Station Freedom's (SSF) Flexible Current Carrier (FCC) for the photovoltaic array. The geometric layout of the FCC, having a planar-type orientation as opposed to bundles, may reduce the probability of sustaining an arc. An experimental investigation was conducted to simulate conditions under which an arc can occur on the FCC of SSF, and the consequences of arc initiation.

Stueber, Thomas J.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Evaluation of Kapton pyrolysis, arc tracking, and arc propagation on the Space Station Freedom (SSF) solar array flexible current carrier (FCC)

Recent studies involving the use of polyimide Kapton coated wires indicate that if a momentary electrical short circuit occurs between two wires, sufficient heating of the Kapton can occur to themally chlar (pyrolyze) the Kapton. Such charred Kapton has sufficient electricxl conductivity to create an arc which tracks down the wires and possibly propagates to adjoining wires. These studies prompted an invetigation to ascertain the likelihood of Kapton pyrolysis, arc tracking and propagation phenomena, and the magnitude of destruction conceivably inflicted on Space Station Freedom's (SSF's) Flexible Current Carrier (FCC) for the photovoltaic array. The geometric layout of the FCC, having a planar-type orientation as opposed to bundles, may reduce the probability of sustaining an arc. An experimental investigation was conducted to simulate conditions under which an arc can occur on the FCC of the SSF, and the consequences of arc initiation.

Stueber, Thomas J.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Analytic redundancy management for large flexible structures

An analytic redundancy management approach for on-line component failure detection is described and illustrated using a simulation of the NASA Langley Spacecaft Control Laboratory Experiment (SCOLE) research facility. The SCOLE experimental apparatus simulated is a functional model of the Space Shuttle with a large, flexible, offset-feed antenna cantilevered from the payload bay. This approach uses a single, active, Kalman filter selected from a bank of filters, each element of which was previously designed to accommodate a specific failure condition. The residuals of this active filter are processed through a sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) filter to identify the failure state of the system and, hence, closing the failure accommodation loop, to select the active filter. Results are presented that illustrate the ability of the system to detect and recover from failures introduced in the angular rate and linear acceleration sensors on the SCOLE facility.

Shenhar, J.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Modeling of turbulent chemical reaction

Viewgraphs are presented on modeling turbulent reacting flows, regimes of turbulent combustion, regimes of premixed and regimes of non-premixed turbulent combustion, chemical closure models, flamelet model, conditional moment closure (CMC), NO(x) emissions from turbulent H2 jet flames, probability density function (PDF), departures from chemical equilibrium, mixing models for PDF methods, comparison of predicted and measured H2O mass fractions in turbulent nonpremixed jet flames, experimental evidence of preferential diffusion in turbulent jet flames, and computation of turbulent reacting flows.

Chen, J.-Y.↗
NASA NTRS2001

State-space receptive fields of semicircular canal afferent neurons in the bullfrog

Receptive fields are commonly used to describe spatial characteristics of sensory neuron responses. They can be extended to characterize temporal or dynamical aspects by mapping neural responses in dynamical state spaces. The state-space receptive field of a neuron is the probability distribution of the dynamical state of the stimulus-generating system conditioned upon the occurrence of a spike. We have computed state-space receptive fields for semicircular canal afferent neurons in the bullfrog (Rana catesbeiana). We recorded spike times during broad-band Gaussian noise rotational velocity stimuli, computed the frequency distribution of head states at spike times, and normalized these to obtain conditional pdfs for the state. These state-space receptive fields quantify what the brain can deduce about the dynamical state of the head when a single spike arrives from the periphery. c2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS1992

Stromatolites of the Mescal Limestone (Apache Group, middle Proterozoic, central Arizona): taxonomy, biostratigraphy, and paleoenvironments

The 25- to 30-m-thick Algal Member of the Mescal Limestone (middle Proterozoic Apache Group) contains two distinct stromatolitic units: at the base, a 2- to 3-m-thick unit composed of columnar stromatolites and above, a thicker unit of stratiform and pseudocolumnar stromatolites. Columnar forms from the first unit belong to the Group Tungussia, and two new Forms are described: T. mescalita and T. chrysotila. Among the pseudocolumnar stromatolites of the thicker unit, one distinctive new taxon, Apachina henryi, is described. Because of the low stromatolite diversity, the biostratigraphic value of this assemblage is limited. The presence of Tungussia is consistent with the generally accepted isotopic age for the Apache Group of 1200 to 1100 Ma. The Mescal stromatolites do not closely resemble any other known Proterozoic stromatolites in the southwestern United States or northwestern Mexico. Analyses of sedimentary features and stromatolite growth forms suggest deposition on a stable, flat, shallow, subtidal protected platform during phases of Tungussia growth. Current action probably influenced the development of columns, pseudocolumns, and elongate stromatolitic ridges; these conditions alternated with phases of relatively quiet water characterized by nonoriented stromatolitic domes and stratiform stromatolites. Stable conditions favorable for development of the Mescal stromatolites were short-lived and did not permit the development of thick, stromatolite-bearing units such as those characteristic of many Proterozoic sequences elsewhere.

Non-NASA Center↗