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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2014

Martian Cryogenic Carbonate Formation: Stable Isotope Variations Observed in Laboratory Studies

The history of water on Mars is tied to the formation of carbonates through atmospheric CO2 and its control of the climate history of the planet. Carbonate mineral formation under modern martian atmospheric conditions could be a critical factor in controlling the martian climate in a means similar to the rock weathering cycle on Earth. The combination of evidence for liquid water on the martian surface and cold surface conditions suggest fluid freezing could be very common on the surface of Mars. Cryogenic calcite forms easily from freezing solutions when carbon dioxide degasses quickly from Ca-bicarbonate-rich water, a process that has been observed in some terrestrial settings such as arctic permafrost cave deposits, lake beds of the Dry Valleys of Antarctica, and in aufeis (river icings) from rivers of N.E. Alaska. A series of laboratory experiments were conducted that simulated cryogenic carbonate formation on Mars in order to understand their isotopic systematics. The results indicate that carbonates grown under martian conditions show variable enrichments from starting bicarbonate fluids in both carbon and oxygen isotopes beyond equilibrium values.

Socki, Richard A.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Indices of extremes: geographic patterns of change in extremes and associated vegetation impacts under climate intervention

Extreme weather events have been demonstrated to be increasing in frequency and intensity across the globe and are anticipated to increase further with projected changes in climate. Solar climate intervention strategies, specifically stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), have the potential to minimize some of the impacts of a changing climate while more robust reductions in greenhouse gas emissions take effect. However, to date little attention has been paid to the possible responses of extreme weather and climate events under climate intervention scenarios. We present an analysis of 16 extreme surface temperature and precipitation indices, as well as associated vegetation responses, applied to the Geoengineering Large Ensemble (GLENS). GLENS is an ensemble of simulations performed with the Community Earth System Model (CESM1) wherein SAI is simulated to offset the warming produced by a high-emission scenario throughout the 21st century, maintaining surface temperatures at 2020 levels. GLENS is generally successful at maintaining global mean temperature near 2020 levels; however, it does not completely offset some of the projected warming in northern latitudes. Some regions are also projected to cool substantially in comparison to the present day, with the greatest decreases in daytime temperatures. The differential warming–cooling also translates to fewer very hot days but more very hot nights during the summer and fewer very cold days or nights compared to the current day. Extreme precipitation patterns, for the most part, are projected to reduce in intensity in areas that are wet in the current climate and increase in intensity in dry areas. We also find that the distribution of daily precipitation becomes more consistent with more days with light rain and fewer very intense events than currently occur. In many regions there is a reduction in the persistence of long dry and wet spells compared to present day. However, asymmetry in the night and day temperatures, together with changes in cloud cover and vegetative responses, could exacerbate drying in regions that are already sensitive to drought. Overall, our results suggest that while SAI may ameliorate some of the extreme weather hazards produced by global warming, it would also present some significant differences in the distribution of climate extremes compared to the present day.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2011

Climate Teleconnections and Recent Patterns of Human and Animal Disease Outbreaks

Recent clusters of outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases (Rift Valley fever and chikungunya) in Africa and parts of the Indian Ocean islands illustrate how interannual climate variability influences the changing risk patterns of disease outbreaks. Extremes in rainfall (drought and flood) during the period 2004 - 2009 have privileged different disease vectors. Chikungunya outbreaks occurred during the severe drought from late 2004 to 2006 over coastal East Africa and the western Indian Ocean islands and in the later years India and Southeast Asia. The chikungunya pandemic was caused by a Central/East African genotype that appears to have been precipitated and then enhanced by global-scale and regional climate conditions in these regions. Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occurred following excessive rainfall period from late 2006 to late 2007 in East Africa and Sudan, and then in 2008 - 2009 in Southern Africa. The shift in the outbreak patterns of Rift Valley fever from East Africa to Southern Africa followed a transition of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena from the warm El Nino phase (2006-2007) to the cold La Nina phase (2007-2009) and associated patterns of variability in the greater Indian Ocean basin that result in the displacement of the centres of above normal rainfall from Eastern to Southern Africa. Understanding the background patterns of climate variability both at global and regional scale and their impacts on ecological drivers of vector borne-diseases is critical in long-range planning of appropriate response and mitigation measures.

Anyamba, Assaf↗
NASA NTRS1982

Delineation of cold-prone areas using nighttime SMS/GOES thermal data Effects of soils and water

Infrared digital data from geostationary satellites were used to demonstrate the usefulness of remotely sensed surface temperature data to delineate microscale and mesoscale climates. Nocturnal winter data (December-February) from 1976-77 to 1978-79 over Florida revealed noticeable contrasts in surface temperature patterns. Colder areas were associated with low soil moisture content in the upper layers of excessively drained and well drained sandy soils, whereas warmer areas were associated with bodies of water, wetlands, or poorly drained soils. An unexpected surface temperature pattern for one night where the north-central Florida climatic zone was colder than the north Florida climatic zone was found to be caused by differences in antecedent frontal rainfall. Differences in surface radiant energy fluxes over these two areas at 0200 EST 20 December 1977, based on average satellite-sensed surface temperatures, were compared with differences in soil heat fluxes that were computed from 1.5 m climatological temperatures and soil thermal properties by use of a simplified surface energy balance equation.

Chen, E.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Effect of Baseline Period on Quantification of Climate Extremes Over the United States

Extreme climate events are societally harmful and have increased in frequency and intensity in recent decades. Indices based on temperature and precipitation are a valuable way to quantify climate extremes. Certain indices are defined relative to percentiles, which are dependent on a climatological baseline period. In this study, indices computed using temperature and precipitation from the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 are calculated using percentiles from three baseline periods: 1981–2010, 1991–2020 and 1981–2020. Updating the baseline period from 1981 to 2010 to 1991–2020 leads to significant changes in the quantification of temperature and precipitation extremes over the United States over 1980–2021. Using the later baseline period indicates more cold extremes, fewer warm extremes, and fewer but more intense precipitation extremes throughout the US, with regional variation. Changing the baseline period can mislead the public and decision makers, potentially undermining the appropriate response to climate-related health risks.

Natalie P. Thomas↗
NASA NTRS2004

Observations of the Upper Tropospheric Water Vapor Feedback in UARS MLS and HALOE Data

One of the biggest uncertainties in climate science today concerns the water vapor feedback. Most GCMs hold relative humidity fixed as the climate changes, which provides a strong positive feedback to warming due from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Some in the community, on the other hand, have speculated that tropospheric specific humidity will remain fixed as the climate changes. Observational studies have attempted to resolve this disagreement, but the results have been inconclusive, and few of the studies have focused on the upper troposphere (UT). This is a significant oversight: the surface temperature is especially sensitive to changes in water vapor in the UT owing to the cold temperatures found there. We present an analysis of UARS MLS and HALOE water vapor measurements at 21 5 hPa. We find strong evidence that the water vapor feedback in the UT is positive, but not as strong as fixed relative humidity scenarios. This suggests that GCMs are overestimating the sensitivity of the climate.

Dessler, A. E.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Use of Climate Change Projections for Resilience Planning in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

In this study we use three different methodologies to document and compare temperature and precipitation projections for the city of Rio de Janeiro (RJ) over the 21st century. It aims to explore in what way the differences and similarities of those methodologies and their outcomes support the incorporation of climate risks in urban planning and improve effective urban climate change governance. We compared the projections for RJ from the Eta Regional Climate Model from the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research nested in two Hadley Center Global Climate Models (GCMs) (Eta-HadCM3 method and Eta-HadGEM2-ES method) and 33 GCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 multi-model dataset (Urban Climate Change Research Network - UCCRN method). The three methods showed increasing temperatures for RJ at the end of the century. Precipitation projections span a 13% decrease to a 12% increase when using the UCCRN method or are reduced between 0.4 and 0.5%, when using the Eta-HadGEM2-ES method. However, the middle range of the projections from UCCRN and Eta-HadGEM2-ES is similar. The three methods project an increase of warm days and nights and a decrease of cold days and nights. Nevertheless, although the directions of change are the same applying the three methods, the magnitude differs when considering warm and cold nights. Hence, city stakeholders are better informed when we apply different projection methods as it gives them the opportunity to consider the level of risk they are willing to bear in the future. We observed that defining climate change projections on the city scale based on clear communication and an interactive process between scientists and stakeholders can be used to inform citywide adaptation strategies and sector-specific uses, as well as promote urban climate risk governance.

urban governance and management↗
NASA NTRS1992

Glacial geomorphic evidence for a late climatic change on Mars

In a series of preliminary reports, we documented evidence of former glacial epochs on Mars. Apparent glacial landforms seemed to be concentrated primarily at middle to high southern latitudes. We now have additional evidence supporting the view that Martian glaciation appears to have been more extensive than previously recognized. The growth and collapse of ice sheets on Mars seems closely analogous to the growth and decline of Earth's great Pleistocene ice sheets. This implies that climate change was probably somewhat comparable on the two planets, although in the case of Mars the entire planet seems to have changed rapidly to a cold, dry present-day environment after the collapse of the ice sheets.

Kargel, J. S.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Water on Mars: Inventory, distribution, and possible sources of polar ice

Theoretical considerations and various lines of morphologic evidence suggest that, in addition to the normal seasonal and climatic exchange of H2O that occurs between the Martian polar caps, atmosphere, and mid to high latitude regolith, large volumes of water have been introduced into the planet's long term hydrologic cycle by the sublimation of equatorial ground ice, impacts, catastrophic flooding, and volcanism. Under the climatic conditions that are thought to have prevailed on Mars throughout the past 3 to 4 b.y., much of this water is expected to have been cold trapped at the poles. The amount of polar ice contributed by each of the planet's potential crustal sources is discussed and estimated. The final analysis suggests that only 5 to 15 pct. of this potential inventory is now in residence at the poles.

Clifford, S. M.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Changes in the Areal Extent of Arctic Sea Ice: Observations from Satellites

Wintertime sea ice covers 15 million square kilometers of the north polar region, an area exceeding one and a half times the area of the U. S. Even at the end of the summer melt season, sea ice still covers 7 million square kilometers. This vast ice cover is an integral component of the climate system, being moved around by winds and waves, restricting heat and other exchanges between the ocean and atmosphere, reflecting most of the solar radiation incident on it, transporting cold, relatively fresh water equatorward, and affecting the overturning of ocean waters underneath, with impacts that can be felt worldwide. Sea ice also is a major factor in the Arctic ecosystem, affecting life forms ranging from minute organisms living within the ice, sometimes to the tune of millions in a single ice floe, to large marine mammals like walruses that rely on sea ice as a platform for resting, foraging, social interaction, and breeding. Since 1978, satellite technology has allowed the monitoring of the vast Arctic sea ice cover on a routine basis. The satellite observations reveal that, overall, the areal extent of Arctic sea ice has been decreasing since 1978, at an average rate of 2.7% per decade through the end of 1998. Through 1998, the greatest rates of decrease occurred in the Seas of Okhotsk and Japan and the Kara and Barents Seas, with most other regions of the Arctic also experiencing ice extent decreases. The two regions experiencing ice extent increases over this time period were the Bering Sea and the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Furthermore, the satellite data reveal that the sea ice season shortened by over 25 days per decade in the central Sea of Okhotsk and the eastern Barents Sea, and by lesser amounts throughout much of the rest of the Arctic seasonal sea ice region, although not in the Bering Sea or the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Concern has been raised that if the trends toward shortened sea ice seasons and lesser sea ice coverage continue, this could entail major consequences to the polar climate and to the lifestyles (and perhaps even the survivability) of polar bears and other polar species.

Parkinson, Claire L.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Regime-oriented causal model evaluation of Atlantic–Pacific teleconnections in CMIP6

The climate system and its spatio-temporal changes are strongly affected by modes of long-term internal variability, like the Pacific decadal variability (PDV) and the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV). As they alternate between warm and cold phases, the interplay between PDV and AMV varies over decadal to multidecadal timescales. Here, we use a causal discovery method to derive fingerprints in the Atlantic–Pacific interactions and to investigate their phase-dependent changes. Dependent on the phases of PDV and AMV, different regimes with characteristic causal fingerprints are identified in reanalyses in a first step. In a second step, a regime-oriented causal model evaluation is performed to evaluate the ability of models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in representing the observed changing interactions between PDV, AMV and their extra-tropical teleconnections. The causal graphs obtained from reanalyses detect a direct opposite-sign response from AMV to PDV when analyzing the complete 1900–2014 period and during several defined regimes within that period, for example, when AMV is going through its negative (cold) phase. Reanalyses also demonstrate a same-sign response from PDV to AMV during the cold phase of PDV. Historical CMIP6 simulations exhibit varying skill in simulating the observed causal patterns. Generally, large-ensemble (LE) simulations showed better network similarity when PDV and AMV were out of phase compared to other regimes. Also, the two largest ensembles (in terms of number of members) were found to contain realizations with similar causal fingerprints to observations. For most regimes, these same models showed higher network similarity when compared to each other. This work shows how causal discovery on LEs complements the available diagnostics and statistical metrics of climate variability to provide a powerful tool for climate model evaluation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Climatic Impact‐Driver Framework for Assessment of Risk‐Relevant Climate Information

Abstract The climate science and applications communities need a broad and demand‐driven concept to assess physical climate conditions that are relevant for impacts on human and natural systems. Here, we augment the description of the “climatic impact‐driver” (CID) approach adopted in the Working Group I (WGI) contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report. CIDs are broadly defined as “physical climate system conditions (e.g., means, events, and extremes) that affect an element of society or ecosystems. Depending on system tolerance, CIDs and their changes can be detrimental, beneficial, neutral, or a mixture of each across interacting system elements and regions.” We give background information on the IPCC Report process that led to the development of the 7 CID types (heat and cold, wet and dry, wind, snow and ice, coastal, open ocean, and other) and 33 distinct CID categories, each of which may be evaluated using a variety of CID indices. This inventory of CIDs was co‐developed with WGII to provide a useful collaboration point between physical climate scientists and impacts/risk experts to assess the specific climatic phenomena driving sectoral responses and identify relevant CID indices within each sector. The CID Framework ensures that a comprehensive set of climatic conditions informs adaptation planning and risk management and may also help prioritize improvements in modeling sectoral dynamics that depend on climatic conditions. CIDs contribute to climate services by increasing coherence and neutrality when identifying and communicating relevant findings from physical climate research to risk assessment and planning activities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2007

Climate-Induced Boreal Forest Change: Predictions versus Current Observations

For about three decades, there have been many predictions of the potential ecological response in boreal regions to the currently warmer conditions. In essence, a widespread, naturally occurring experiment has been conducted over time. In this paper, we describe previously modeled predictions of ecological change in boreal Alaska, Canada and Russia, and then we investigate potential evidence of current climate-induced change. For instance, ecological models have suggested that warming will induce the northern and upslope migration of the treeline and an alteration in the current mosaic structure of boreal forests. We present evidence of the migration of keystone ecosystems in the upland and lowland treeline of mountainous regions across southern Siberia. Ecological models have also predicted a moisture-stress-related dieback in white spruce trees in Alaska, and current investigations show that as temperatures increase, white spruce tree growth is declining. Additionally, it was suggested that increases in infestation and wildfire disturbance would be catalysts that precipitate the alteration of the current mosaic forest composition. In Siberia, five of the last seven years have resulted in extreme fire seasons, and extreme fire years have also been more frequent in both Alaska and Canada. In addition, Alaska has experienced extreme and geographically expansive multi-year outbreaks of the spruce beetle, which had been previously limited by the cold, moist environment. We suggest that there is substantial evidence throughout the circumboreal region to conclude that the biosphere within the boreal terrestrial environment has already responded to the transient effects of climate change. Additionally, temperature increases and warming-induced change are progressing faster than had been predicted in some regions, suggesting a potential non-linear rapid response to changes in climate, as opposed to the predicted slow linear response to climate change.

Soja, Amber J.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Compound Drought and Heatwaves at a Global Scale: The Role of Natural Climate Variability-Associated Synoptic Patterns and Land-Surface Energy Budget Anomalies

Compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events have garnered much attention in recent studies. However, thus far, the identification of such events is oversimplified, and their association with natural climate variability is not fully explored. Here, we derive anomalies in the weekly self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (sc_PDSI) and daily maximum temperatures to identify CDHW events from 1982 to 2016 over 26 climate regions across the globe. Using a Poisson Generalized Linear Model (GLM), we analyze yearly occurrences of seasonal CDHW events and their association with the warm and cold phases of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). ENSO exhibits robust association with CDHW events over the Southern Hemisphere during the austral summer and fall, while PDO influences their occurrences over the Western North America in the Northern Hemisphere during the boreal summer, which is supported by the composites of anomalies in the atmospheric circulations and surface energy budget. However, NAO association with CDHW events is relatively weak. The CDHW occurrence over other regions is driven by a combination of these large-scale natural forcing. Our analyses also highlight that the cooccurrence of weekly to submonthly scale anomalies in the observed temperature and precipitation may not be always aligned between the observations and the reanalysis. Therefore, caution must be exercised while explaining such observed anomalies on the basis of reanalysis-based circulations and surface energy budget. Lastly, our analyses provide a new insight towards concurrent extremes and should help foster research efforts in this area.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1998

development of a medium repetition rate (10 Hz - 500 Hz) diode pumped laser transmitter for airborne scanning altimetry

Since the late 1980's, NASA has developed several small, all-solid state lasers of low repetition rates for use as transmitters in prototype LIDAR and raster scanned altimetry retrieval systems. Our early laser transmitters were developed for high resolution airborne altimetry which employed cavity dumping techniques to produce a pulse shape with a 1 ns rise time. The first such laser was the SUMR (Sub-millimeter resolution) transmitter which used a side pumped, D-shaped half-rod of Nd:YAG for the oscillator active media and produced approximately 3 ns pulses of 100 micro-J energy at a 40 Hz repetition rate. (Coyle and Blair, 1993; Coyle et al., 1995) After several upgrades to improve rep rate and pulse energy, the final version produced 1.2 mJ pulses at 120 Hz with a 3.7 ns pulse width. The laser has become known as SPLT (Sharp Pulsed Laser Transmitter), and has flown successfully on a variety of airborne altimetry missions. (Coyle and Blair, 1995; Blair et al., 1994) From building these systems, we have accrued valuable experience in delivering field-deployable lasers and have become aware of the advantages and disadvantages of employing new technologies. For example, even though the laser's main operating environment is in a "cold" aircraft during flight, the laser must still operate in very warm temperatures. This is important if the mission is based in the desert or a tropical climate since ground calibration data from stationary targets must be gathered before and after each data flight. Because conductive cooling is much more convenient than closed loop water flow, achieving the highest possible laser efficiency is becoming a high priority when designing a flight laser. This is especially true for lasers with higher pulse energies and repetition rates which are needed for high altitude scanning altimeters and LIDARs.

Coyle, D. Barry↗
NASA NTRS2000

Snow Physics and Meltwater Hydrology of the SSiB Model Employed for Climate Simulation Studies with GEOS 2 GCM

Present-day climate models produce large climate drifts that interfere with the climate signals simulated in modelling studies. The simplifying assumptions of the physical parameterization of snow and ice processes lead to large biases in the annual cycles of surface temperature, evapotranspiration, and the water budget, which in turn causes erroneous land-atmosphere interactions. Since land processes are vital for climate prediction, and snow and snowmelt processes have been shown to affect Indian monsoons and North American rainfall and hydrology, special attention is now being given to cold land processes and their influence on the simulated annual cycle in GCMs. The snow model of the SSiB land-surface model being used at Goddard has evolved from a unified single snow-soil layer interacting with a deep soil layer through a force-restore procedure to a two-layer snow model atop a ground layer separated by a snow-ground interface. When the snow cover is deep, force-restore occurs within the snow layers. However, several other simplifying assumptions such as homogeneous snow cover, an empirical depth related surface albedo, snowmelt and melt-freeze in the diurnal cycles, and neglect of latent heat of soil freezing and thawing still remain as nagging problems. Several important influences of these assumptions will be discussed with the goal of improving them to better simulate the snowmelt and meltwater hydrology. Nevertheless, the current snow model (Mocko and Sud, 2000, submitted) better simulates cold land processes as compared to the original SSiB. This was confirmed against observations of soil moisture, runoff, and snow cover in global GSWP (Sud and Mocko, 1999) and point-scale Valdai simulations over seasonal snow regions. New results from the current snow model SSiB from the 10-year PILPS 2e intercomparison in northern Scandinavia will be presented.

Mocko, David M.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Little influence of Arctic amplification on mid-latitude climate

Observations and model simulations show enhanced warming in the Arctic under increasing greenhouse gases, a phenomenon known as the Arctic amplification (AA), that is likely caused by sea-ice loss. AA reduces meridional temperature gradients linked to circulation, thus mid-latitude weather and climate changes have been attributed to AA, often on the basis of regression analysis and atmospheric simulations. However, other modelling studies show only a weak link. This inconsistency may result from deficiencies in separating the effects of AA from those of natural variability or background warming. In this work, using coupled model simulations with and without AA, we show that cold-season precipitation, snowfall and circulation changes over northern mid-latitudes come mostly from background warming. AA and sea-ice loss increase precipitation and snowfall above ~60° N and reduce meridional temperature gradients above ~45° N in the lower–mid troposphere. However, minimal impact on the mean climate is seen below ~60° N, with weak reduction in zonal wind over 50°–70° N and 150–700 hPa, mainly over the North Atlantic and northern central Asia. These results suggest that the climatic impacts of AA are probably small outside the high latitudes, thus caution is needed in attributing mid-latitude changes to AA and sea-ice loss on the basis of statistical analyses that cannot distinguish the impact of AA from other correlated changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2016

Climate Science for Decision-Making in the New York Metropolitan Region

New York City is one of the world's most vulnerable cities to coastal flooding, due to a high concentration of population and assets near a coastline exposed to warm-season tropical storms and cold -season Nor'easter storms. Among U.S. cities, New York City is second only to New Orleans in population living less than 4 ft above the local high tide. By the 2050s, average annual losses due to coastal flooding alone could exceed $2 billion for the combined New York City-Newark region. Perhaps the most iconic example of a vulnerable New York City asset is the financial district located at the southern tip of Manhattan, however low-lying coastal assets include the full complement of major highways, subways and tunnels, hospitals, schools, wastewater treatment plants, food distribution centers, and people's homes. Given the magnitude of the assets at risk, a compelling case can be made that long-term adaptation makes economic sense for New York City. Given New York's access to economic, human, and technological resources for resilience measures, the City may be able to achieve this resilience. The city's political environment-New York City is a place where climate science is generally not a partisan issue-and the city's experience with uncertainty and overall risk framing (e.g., financing of bond issues for multi-billion dollar infrastructure with multidecade expected lifetimes), encourage climate risk framing.

Horton, Radley↗