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Continuum electromagnetic gyrokinetic simulations of turbulence in the tokamak scrape-off layer and laboratory devices

Here, we present algorithms and results from Gkeyll, a full-f continuum, electromagnetic gyrokinetic code, designed to study turbulence in the edge region of fusion devices. The edge is computationally very challenging, requiring robust algorithms that can handle large-amplitude fluctuations and stable interactions with plasma sheaths. We present an energy-conserving high-order discontinuous Galerkin scheme that solves gyrokinetic equations in Hamiltonian form. Efficiency is improved by a careful choice of basis functions and automatically generated computation kernels. Previous verification tests were performed in the straight-field-line large plasma device [Shi et al., J. Plasma Phys. 83, 905830304 (2017)] and the Texas Helimak, a simple magnetized torus [Bernard et al., Phys. Plasmas 26, 042301 (2019)], including the effect of end-plate biasing on turbulence. Results for the scrape-off layer for NSTX parameters with a model helical magnetic geometry with bad curvature have been obtained [Shi et al., Phys. Plasmas 26, 012307 (2019)]. In this paper, we present algorithms for the two formulations of electromagnetic gyrokinetics: the Hamiltonian and the symplectic. We describe each formulation and show results of benchmark tests. Although our scheme works for the Hamiltonian formulation, the presence of spurious numerical modes for high-β and large $k^2_⊥ρ^2_s$ regimes shows that the symplectic formulation is more robust. We then review our recent algorithm for the symplectic formulation [Mandell et al., J. Plasma Phys. 86, 905860109 (2020)], along with example application of this new capability. Maintaining positivity of the distribution function can be challenging, and we describe a new and novel exponential recovery based algorithm to address this.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Approach to nonlinear magnetohydrodynamic simulations in stellarator geometry

The capability to model the nonlinear magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) evolution of stellarator plasmas is developed by extending the M3D-C 1 code to allow non-axisymmetric domain geometry. We introduce a set of logical coordinates, in which the computational domain is axisymmetric, to utilize the existing finite-element framework of M3D-C 1 . A C 1 coordinate mapping connects the logical domain to the non-axisymmetric physical domain, where we use the M3D-C 1 extended MHD models essentially without modifications. We present several numerical verifications on the implementation of this approach, including simulations of the heating, destabilization, and equilibration of a stellarator plasma with strongly anisotropic thermal conductivity, and of the relaxation of stellarator equilibria to integrable and non-integrable magnetic field configurations in realistic geometries.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Dissertation Proposal: Innovations in Pulsed Power and Plasma Science Theory Simulation and Experiment

Pulsed power and plasma physics are topics of great study at both Sandia National Laboratories (SNL or Sandia) and the University of New Mexico (UNM). The goal of this research is to further knowledge and understanding of these fields using the resources of both SNL and UNM in three ways. The first way is through the comprehension, application, and testing of theory. Reading and analytically deriving theoretical solutions of problems both real-world and simplified will allow for a fresh perspective and the furthering of the theory. One such theory is Ottinger's generalized theory for voltage measurement in magnetically insulated transmission lines (MITLs). By working through the math, a deeper understanding of the theory is gained from which one may add more physically accurate and/or more detailed physics into the theory. Additionally, understanding the theory lays a good foundation from which one can analyze, test, and compare results to the theory in the following two ways that will advance the fields of pulsed power and plasma physics. The second way is through the modeling and simulation of real-world and simplified problems that utilize and test the afore mentioned theories. Theory can be applied to a simulation domain by using the unstructured time-domain electromagnetic (UTDEM) codes EMPHASIS and EMPIRE as well as the physical modeling software CUBIT, all of which were developed at SNL. Problems such as the modeling and design of the extended MITL on HERMES III, the understanding of space-charge-limited emission from vacuum cathodes, and the interaction between a relativistic electron beam and an ideal gas can all be modeled, simulated, and analyzed with this set of codes. Here the advantage is three-fold. Firstly, theory that describes our understanding of these problems can be put to the test and advanced through iterative simulation and analysis. Secondly, the understanding of these problems will have a positive impact on national security through the advancement of the technological capability of the United States of America. Thirdly, and not unrelated to the prior advantage, is the validation and verification of EMPIRE and EMPHASIS. This segues into the third way, which is through experiment and the comparison of experiment to simulated and theoretical results. Performing experimental comparisons completes the scientific method and grounds all of the work in reality. Being able to physically test theory and simulation is necessary for any real conclusions to be drawn. Another advantage for carrying out experimental work is to advance the physical testing capabilities of SNL. Several systems will be developed and tested through the course of this work that positively impact technological advancement of Sandia National Labs. Lastly, all of the above work will converge to yield a well-rounded perspective that ties the three categories of research together.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Massively Parallel Capability in Sierra/SD for Simulation Vibration with Piezoelectrics

Sierra/SD is an engineering structural dynamics code that provides Sandia and other customers a tool to model structural and acoustic physics on large complex physical systems using massively parallel processing. This report provides a detailed overview on Sierra/SD’s most recent physics package: coupled electro-mechanical physics. This capability uses the finite element method to model coupled electro-mechanical physics exhibited by piezoelectric materials. This report provides an applications overview, theory overview, and verification examples demonstrating the electro-mechanical physics modeling capabilities of Sierra/SD.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

SIESTA a Fatigue Solution: User's and Theory Manual

This report documents the fatigue code SIESTA that has been used for recently here at Sandia National Laboratories. It is written in two parts: the first as a user manual and the second as a theory manual. Currently employed in SIESTA are stress-life cycle approaches. Clients have requested the use of standards in particular analyses; therefore, the American Society of Mechanical Engineers, Boiler Pressure Vessel Code fatigue standards have been implemented. These include an elastic, an elastic-plastic, and a weld fatigue method. All three methods use a Max-Min cycle counting method that is appropriate for non-proportional loading. A Signed von Mises method that used a Rainflow Cycle Counting Method is also implemented. The Signed von Mises with the Rainflow Cycle Counting Method is appropriate for proportional loading. Several verification examples are noted and include comparisons to experimental data.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Numerical Investigation of Fluid Flow and Space Charge in Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LArTPC) Detectors

Overview This project focused on developing a high-fidelity numerical framework to simulate the multiphysics environment within Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LArTPC) detectors. The primary objective was to characterize the complex interplay between ion transport, background fluid dynamics, and electric field distortions—a critical factor for the calibration and sensitivity of next-generation High Energy Physics experiments, such as DUNE. Technical Achievements The research successfully yielded a hybrid numerical space-charge solver utilizing a Cell-Centered Finite Volume Method (FVM) for ion transport coupled with a Finite Element Method (FEM) for electric potential. Key accomplishments include: • Verification & Validation: The 3-D solver was rigorously verified against 1-D analytical solutions, demonstrating high numerical accuracy in predicting space-charge-induced field deviations. • Field Distortion Analysis: 3D simulations revealed that space charge effects introduce significant non-uniformities in the electric field. Critically, the research identified that background LAr flow velocities, when comparable to ion drift velocities, markedly exacerbate these distortions. • Technology Transfer: The resulting source code and comprehensive user manuals were successfully transferred to collaborators at Fermilab, providing a portable computational tool for the broader scientific community. Challenges and Future Directions While the space-charge solver achieved all performance metrics, the integrated fluid dynamics modeling encountered convergence challenges stemming from the extreme 200-fold disparity in length scales between the detector's 37 mm inlet pipes and the 8-meter global domain. To address this, the project has identified a clear technical pivot toward Hierarchical Geometric Adaptive Mesh Refinement (HG-AMR). By implementing an h-type refinement strategy with hanging nodes, future iterations of this solver will be capable of resolving localized high-gradient inlet flows without the prohibitive computational costs of regular grids. This advancement, combined with data-driven uncertainty quantification based on MicroBooNE-style calibration, will enable the precise modeling of detector responses in large-scale cryogenic environments where direct measurement remains difficult. Impact The computational tools developed under this award provide a foundation for enhancing the energy resolution and spatial reconstruction of noble liquid detectors. By bridging the gap between theoretical fluid dynamics and experimental field calibration, this work supports the DOE’s mission to advance the frontiers of neutrino physics and dark matter detection.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Reported Energy and Cost Savings from the DOE ESPC IDIQ Program: FY 2024

Energy Savings Performance Contracts (ESPCs)are a contractual mechanism that allow a federal agency to procure energy savings and facility improvements without upfront capital costs to reduce costs and resiliency. ESPCs are covered under FAR Part 23.2, and 42 USC § 8287. Section 8287(a)(2)(A) of Title 42 of the U.S. Code requires that each energy savings performance contract (ESPC) undergo an annual energy audit, resulting in a separate audit report for every project. The objective of the present report is to compile and analyze all annual ESPC audit reports issued between October 1, 2023, and September 30, 2024, for projects awarded under Generations 1, 2, and 3 of DOE’s ESPC IDIQ contracts. During this period, 205 measurement and verification (M&V) reports were produced for 200 projects; the total number of reports exceeds the number of projects because some projects generated more than one report(for example, a few projects measure savings twice per year and produce two audit reports annually, each covering a different six-month period). By aggregating the results from these individual audits, the report determines the portfolio-wide realization rate of energy and cost savings for all active ESPC projects awarded under DOE’s IDIQ program. For all 205audit reports, sufficient information was available to compare project-level estimated, reported, and guaranteed cost savings. Reported cost savings accounted for ESCO verified savings per each project’s M&V plan. The total reported cost savings for the period addressed were $\$$647.8million,compared with the total guaranteed cost savings of $\$$601.6million. On average across the reported projects: •ESPC contractors guaranteed 92.8% of the estimated cost savings• projects reported achieving 100.0% of the estimated cost savings• projects reported achieving 107.7% of the guaranteed cost savings. The M&V performed for the period indicated adjustments for government operations and maintenance impacts to savings amount to$\$$43.9millionandcould be restored with the original operational parameters for impacted projects. Accounting for this potential cost savings impact, these projects still realized 100.4% of the guaranteed cost savings. The information on estimated and reported energy savings was collected and compared for all 205of the reports examined. Based on site energy, estimated savings totaled 14.88million MMBtu, and reported savings were 15.33million MMBtu; 3.1% greater than the estimated energy savings. All of the reports examined contained sufficient information to calculate source energy savings. Based on site-adjusted source energy, total estimated energy savings were 20.90 million MMBtu, and reported savings were 21.22million MMBtu, 101.5% of the estimated energy savings. For water savings, the estimated savings were 11,539,055 kGal and the reported savings were 13,315,930 kGal. This means 1,776,875 kGal more water was saved than estimated, which is about 15% higher than the estimate. These results indicate that, overall, the reported energy savings slightly exceeded the estimated values, while estimated water savings significantly exceeded estimated values, suggesting that the projects achieved greater cost savings than originally projected. The total annual expense for the ESCOs to perform annual M&V audits and reporting was $\$$10.02million. Through this effort, $\$$647.8 million in annual cost savings was verified. The M&V results indicated that $\$$43.9 million of these verified savings reflected adjustments due to government operations A-6and maintenance impacts, which could be restored under the original operational parameters for the affected projects. These findings show the value of M&V that only costs 1.7%of the guaranteed cost savings to ensure guarantees are met.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Reported Energy and Cost Savings from the DOE ESPC IDIQ Program: FY 2024

Energy Savings Performance Contracts (ESPCs) are a contractual mechanism that allow a federal agency to procure energy savings and facility improvements without upfront capital costs to reduce costs and enhance mission resiliency. ESPCs are covered under FAR Part 23.2, and 42 USC § 8287. Section 8287(a)(2)(A) of Title 42 of the U.S. Code requires that each energy savings performance contract (ESPC) undergo an annual energy audit, resulting in a separate audit report for every project. The objective of the present report is to compile and analyze all annual ESPC audit reports issued between October 1, 2023, and September 30, 2024, for projects awarded under Generations 1, 2, and 3 of DOE’s ESPC IDIQ contracts. During this period, 205 measurement and verification (M&V) reports were produced for 200 projects; the total number of reports exceeds the number of projects because some projects generated more than one report (for example, a few projects measure savings twice per year and produce two audit reports annually, each covering a different six-month period). By aggregating the results from these individual audits, the report determines the portfolio-wide realization rate of energy and cost savings for all active ESPC projects awarded under DOE’s IDIQ program.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Modeling The DLOFC Accident Scenario of HTR-PM Equilibrium Core Using NEAMS Tools

High-Temperature Gas-cooled Reactors (HTGRs) have excellent characteristics in terms of safety and high thermal efficiency, and they are gaining a large interest from the industry as a candidate of Gen-IV reactors for a wide range of applications. The High Temperature gas-cooled Reactor Pebble-bed Module project (HTR-PM) is one of these designs and where helium gas is used to cool the pebble-bed region that consists of spherical fuel elements moderated with graphite. The HTR-PM design is based on the combined experience from the German pebble-bed reactor program from the 1960s through the 1990s and the HTR-10 experience in China during the 2000s. Idaho National Laboratory has a long experience in modeling of HTGRs working in developing neutronics and thermal hydraulics tools for the proper modeling of these reactors. The neutronics code Griffin has the capability to model pebble depletion . While the thermal hydraulics code Pronghorn was developed mainly to model the pebble bed reactors with the porous media assumption. In this work, an equilibrium core Multiphysics model was developed for the HTR-PM reactor to analyze the depressurized loss of forced cooling accident scenario (DLOFC). This paper is organized as follows: First, a brief description of the reactor and model specifications are provided. Then, the developed Multiphysics model is discussed. Finally, verification results of the steady-state equilibrium core and DLOFC accident are presented followed by a summary of the conclusions.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Metallic fuel transient fuel-cladding interface liquefaction model assessment platform enabled by integrating BISON with databases

A novel platform has been developed within the BISON fuel performance code to assess models of fuel-cladding interface liquefaction for sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) metallic fuels. Here, this platform is crucial because liquefaction at the fuel-cladding interface significantly impacts fuel performance and may compromise fuel pin integrity during transient events. To ensure accurate predictions, the platform integrates data collected during the Integral Fast Reactor (IFR) program, now archived in metallic fuel databases. This integration supports verification and validation (V&V) of the models in BISON. Leveraging the extensive US experience with metallic fuel liquefaction and the collections of preserved legacy data, the platform serves as a powerful tool for evaluating existing models and advancing the development of new ones.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Photonuclear Physics in SCALE

Radiation shielding modeling involves a wide range of applications, such as power reactors, critical experiments, portable sources, linear accelerators, and fusion systems. Particle energy ranges vary from thermal energies to fast energy spectra. MAVRIC, as the radiation shielding sequence of the SCALE code system [1] developed and maintained by Oak Ridge National Laboratory, is capable of modeling both neutron and photon interactions in matter and is widely used by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Department of Energy, the National Nuclear Security Administration, and radiation shielding practitioners all around the world. Although most applications don’t involve highly energetic photons that can cause photonuclear reactions and create coupled chains of high energy, ionized electrons and bremsstrahlung radiation within a material medium, when present, these reactions can have a significant impact upon the downstream particle fluxes from incident photons above 20 MeV. For example, linear accelerators used for medical isotope production are examples of applications in which high-energetic photons are generated and used for driving or controlling other components of a complex facility. Radiation shielding analyses of such a facility would require accounting for any and all significant sources of radiation. Unfortunately, MAVRIC included no data and methods to model either photonuclear reactions or the bremsstrahlung photons until this work, which enabled accounting for both. Photonuclear reaction cross sections were imported from the Evaluated Nuclear Data File libraries, and corresponding methods were implemented in the SCALE code system; see Section 2 for how the nuclear data are imported and used. Bremsstrahlung photons were modeled by assuming thick-target approximation whereby all generated electrons and positrons due to photon interactions are assumed to be absorbed within the same material in which they were born, yielding a quick particle transport simulation method by using fast lookup tables for generating subsequent gammas; see Section 4 for details. A suite of verification models was used to test implemented methods and associated data. Tests yielded satisfactory results for the new features. Enhancements will be released as part of the next major SCALE release (v7.0), which is anticipated to be deployed in 2025, with beta releases available in the interim.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

SCALE Modeling of the Fast Spectrum Heat Pipe Reactor

As part of the severe accident analysis collaboration with Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), SCALE models were developed for a fast-spectrum heat pipe reactor. These models were based on the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Design A concept, which is an alternative design to the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Special Purpose Reactor (SPR), also known as the Megapower reactor. The model contains 1,134 heat pipes, surrounded by hexagonal fuel elements, with a potassium working fluid; the fuel is UO 2 with 19.75 wt% 235 U enrichment. The model contains axial beryllium oxide (BeO) reflectors above and below the active fuel region along with a radial alumina reflector containing 12 B 4 C control drums. The center of the core is left unfueled to make room for two shutdown control rods, one annular and one solid. The active region of the core was discretized into twenty axial and five radial zones to analyze spatial variations in power and burnup. Infinite lattice unit cell sensitivity studies were used to perform verification between the SCALE and INL models. The eigenvalue results agreed well with the reported results to within roughly 50 percent mille (pcm). Full-core model verification was performed by analyzing system eigenvalues with differing configurations of control drum and shutdown rod positions. These full core results all had eigenvalue differences less than 310 pcm. Control drum and shutdown rod worths were also compared, with differences of 3.2% or less. Using the verified model, the isotopic inventory and decay heat, as well as temperature feedback coefficients, were calculated and provided to SNL as input to the MELCOR severe accident code to analyze potential releases from this class of reactor. The results of the MELCOR analysis are provided in a different report.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

A software environment for effective reliability management for pulsed power design

The reliable design of magnetically insulated transmission lines (MITLs) for very high current pulsed power machines must be accomplished in the future by utilizing a variety of sophisticated modeling tools. The complexity of the models required is high and the number of sub-models and approximations large. The potential for significant analyst error using a single tool is large, with possible reliability issues associated with the plasma modeling tools themselves or the chosen approach by the analyst to solve a given problem. Here, we report on a software infrastructure design that provides a workable framework for building self-consistent models and constraining feedback to limit analyst error. The framework and associated tools aid the development of physical intuition, the development of increasingly sophisticated models, and the comparison of performance results. The work lays the computational foundation for designing state-of-the-art pulsed-power experiments. The design and useful features of this environment are described. We discuss the utility of the Git source code management system and a GitLab interface for use in project management that extends beyond software development tasks.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Vision and Development of a Design, Implementation, and Verification Automation (DIVA) Software Platform for DNA Construction

Abstract DNA construction, while a prerequisite to many biological endeavors, is often a time-consuming distraction from an individual’s primary research objectives. We envisioned that with the right software infrastructure and cultural mindset, a single person could execute in parallel the batched DNA construction tasks of an entire research institute, at scales realizing efficiency gains through process and laboratory automation. In pursuit of this vision, we developed the Design, Implementation, and Verification Automation (DIVA) software platform. DIVA’s web interface enables researchers to design DNA constructs (using visual biological computer-aided design tools and biological parts repositories), submit designs for construction to dedicated staff, and track DNA construction as it progresses. DIVA supports the dedicated staff through the DNA construction process and records both successful and unsuccessful attempts toward improving the overall process. The platform is publicly available at public-diva.jbei.org and its open-source code through github.com/JBEI/DIVA.

Plahar, Hector [DOE Agile BioFoundry , , ,; DOE Jo↗

Validation of electron backscattering in the MCNP6.3 code

A new electron backscattering validation suite has been developed for the MCNP® code. The calculations in this suite cover both condensed history and single-event transport methods, seven different elemental materials ranging from beryllium to uranium, and incident electron energies from 200 eV to 14.1 MeV. In general, the accuracy of the MCNP code for electron backscattering calculations is energy-dependent. For incident electron energies below 2 keV, the condensed history method is not applied while the single-event method shows poor agreement with experimental measurements due to poor accuracy of the underlying atomic data. For incident energies between 2 keV and 256 keV, the single-event method typically shows better agreement with experiments, while for incident energies above 256 keV the condensed history method gives better accuracy. Additionally, agreement with experimental data is generally worse for low- Z materials such as beryllium and carbon, which may reflect deficiencies in the data or physics underlying electron transport through light elements in the MCNP code. The new electron backscattering validation suite, along with the previously introduced electron stopping power and Lockwood energy deposition validation suites, provide MCNP users with a quantified understanding of the uncertainties in electron transport calculations. Future improvements to electron transport in the MCNP code are necessary for low energies (≤ 2 keV) and for low- Z materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

North Dakota Integrated Carbon Storage Complex Feasibility Study. Final report

In spring 2017, the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) initiated an effort to determine the feasibility of developing a commercial-scale CO 2 geologic storage complex able to store 50+ million tonnes (Mt) of CO 2 in central North Dakota safely, permanently, and economically. The objective was to fulfill the goals of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Carbon Storage Assurance Facility Enterprise (CarbonSAFE) Initiative and address technical and nontechnical challenges specific to commercial-scale deployment of a CO2 storage project. The findings clearly show that the concept of capturing CO 2 from a lignite-fired electrical generation facility in central North Dakota and safely and permanently storing the CO 2 in the deep subsurface is indeed technically, economically, and socially feasible. This project evaluated two study areas and their respective geologic storage complexes located adjacent to separate coal-fired facilities in North Dakota: the Basin Electric Power Cooperative (BEPC)-owned Great Plains Synfuels Plant (GPSP) and the Minnkota Power Cooperative (Minnkota)-owned Milton R. Young Station (MRYS). These locations, one with CO 2 capture in place and an existing CO 2 pipeline, are bolstered by progressive North Dakota pore space ownership and long-term liability laws. These elements and a motivated team created an ideal synergistic scenario for ensuring success of the CarbonSAFE Initiative and promoting North Dakota’s statewide vision for carbon management. The project included drilling two new geologic characterization wells, integrating an existing 3-D seismic survey, creating a geologic model subsequently used for injection simulation, a risk assessment, public outreach, and generating a site development plan based on results. In addition, the performance of select National Risk Assessment Partnership tools was evaluated. The geologic characterization wells were drilled ~5600 feet deep to the Broom Creek Formation; ~350 feet of core was retrieved from each well. The core included the Broom Creek (targeted injection zone) and a portion of the overlying Opeche Shale (seal). The Flemmer-1 well, west of Beulah, North Dakota, yielded 169 feet of sandstone. The BNI-1 well located south of Center, North Dakota, yielded 124 feet of sandstone. In each case, laboratory analysis of the sandstone showed permeability in the 300–1000-mD range, with porosity of 20%–30%. The Flemmer-1 well was sited within the boundaries of an existing 3-D seismic survey. Colocating the well with the seismic survey maximized the relationship between new and legacy data and developed a first-of-its-kind interpretation of the geologic fabric of the Broom Creek. Geologic characterization data were integrated into a 5544-mi 2 geocellular model that encompassed both new wells and stratigraphy from the surface to the Amsden Formation (underlying the Broom Creek). The model was later expanded vertically to include the deeper Black Island–Deadwood interval to examine its potential viability as a storage target. The geocellular model provided the foundation for dynamic simulation of CO 2 into the Broom Creek. Results of the simulation suggest that the Broom Creek could accept the DOE target rate of 2 Mt/yr of CO 2 into as few as two wells. To bracket the expected capture from MRYS, simulations were also investigated for a 4-Mt/yr rate near MRYS. Although more wells are needed (two additional), the Broom Creek still has the storage resource to accept the CO 2 at the increased rate. A risk assessment exercise was conducted to identify and assess technical and nontechnical risks that could prevent potential candidate storage complexes within the study area from serving as commercial storage sites. The assessment identified and evaluated six technical risk categories: 1) CO 2 injectivity, 2) storage capacity, 3) lateral migration of CO 2 , 4) lateral pressure propagation, 5) vertical migration of CO 2 or formation brine, and 6) induced seismicity. Following two rounds of analysis and scoring, no risks were determined to preclude continued efforts to develop carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) in central North Dakota. The risk assessment results will be used to guide future site characterization, modeling and simulation, and monitoring activities. A specific nontechnical strategic risk based on challenges that may be realized in amalgamation of pore space resulted in vertically expanding the geologic model to incorporate the potential for stacked storage in multiple saline reservoirs. By including the Black Island–Deadwood interval (the basal sedimentary reservoir in this region), the amalgamated areal extent could be reduced by as much as 45%. Working with a smaller geographic area reduces risks and costs associated with monitoring and pore space leasing. An economic evaluation incorporating capture; transport (<5 mi); Class VI wells; permitting; and monitoring, verification, and accounting suggests implementing commercial-scale CCUS is economically attractive if the federal tax benefits of 45Q are included. This is validated by Minnkota’s continued pursuit of CO 2 capture and geologic storage at MRYS through its Project Tundra initiative, indicating that there is a business case for CCUS in central North Dakota. Currently, North Dakota is the only state with underground injection control (UIC) Class VI primacy. Built into the North Dakota Century Code is a series of regulatory requirements that guide the process to obtain a Class VI CO 2 storage facility permit. As part of this project, a site development plan was compiled to assure compliance with North Dakota’s requirements to permit a commercial-scale CO 2 storage operation and includes a prospective time line encompassing a general breakdown of activities. In total, an estimated 30 months would be needed to execute the necessary steps to attain a North Dakota CO 2 storage facility permit. Outreach was an integral part of the project and encompassed any project-related activity that had contact or exposure beyond the project team. The goals of outreach were to foster an environment from which stakeholders could make informed decisions about the project and gauge community receptiveness to a CCUS project. A consistent set of messages and outreach products were developed in conjunction with an outreach advisory board that integrated project partners and team members. To gauge public acceptability of geologically storing CO 2 , 5611 households in the project area were invited to participate in an online survey. The survey results indicate that the public attitude regarding CCUS is neutral to positive, with strong sentiment that CO 2 capture and storage may be an approach to maintain the economic vitality of the region. To achieve project objectives, critical support in the form of financial backing, engineering evaluations, site access, outreach collaboration, operations data, risk assessment/evaluation, and software access was provided by BEPC, the North Dakota Industrial Commission Lignite Research Council, ALLETE Clean Energy, BNI Energy, North American Coal Corporation, Minnkota, Prairie Public Broadcasting, Computer Modelling Group Ltd., and Schlumberger.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

CLimate Impact: Determining Etiology thRough pAthways (CLDERA)

Climate impacts have broad economic, health, political, and national security ramifications. Societally relevant impacts are typically farther downstream, are the product of multiple interacting processes, and can arise over small regions and timeframes because their sources are short-term and localized. Short-term forcings (as can be seen in volcanic eruptions, climatic tipping points (e.g., the collapse of rainforests or the disappearance of sea ice), or in increasingly plausible climate interventions) fundamentally possess low signal-to-noise and could benefit from accounting for the multiple conditional processes through which a downstream impact arises. Under the Grand Challenge LDRD CLDERA (CLimate impacts: Discovering Etiology thRough pAthways), we have developed tools to enable downstream impact attribution from geographically and temporally localized source forcings in the climate. CLDERA developed methods that can distinguish how a localized source drives the climate system to respond with particular impacts. The how is embodied in pathways – the spatio-temporally evolving chain of physical processes that connects a source to a series of increasingly distant impacts. Novel analytic methods in pursuit of downstream impact attribution were developed and demonstrated on simulations and observations of the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines. As described within this report we have • developed stratospheric expertise and aerosol modeling capabilities in E3SM, • created original methods to detect and model pathways from source-to-impact, and • advanced climate attribution through novel methods, cases, and approaches. Further, CLDERA developed a tiered verification process consisting of controlled datasets to prototype, verify, and refine the original method development. CLDERA increased Sandia’s footprint in the climate analytics community and developed new climate collaborations whilst also creating a cadre of climate analysts at Sandia. The products from CLDERA have been extensive with a total of 9 journal articles published, 12 articles submitted and under review, and an additional 8 articles in preparation. We have produced 1750 simulated years and developed 9 code-bases. This report details these accomplishments and serves as a summary of the work completed during the CLDERA Grand Challenge.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗