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NASA NTRS2017

Ultra-Stable Spectrometer for Sky-Scanning, Sun-Tracking Atmospheric Research (5STAR)

The Spectrometer for Sky-Scanning, Sun-Tracking Atmospheric Research (4STAR) combines airborne sun tracking and sky scanning with diffraction spectroscopy to improve knowledge of atmospheric constituents and their links to airpollution and climate. Direct beam hyperspectral measurement of optical depth improves retrievals of gas constituentsand determination of aerosol properties. Sky scanning enhances retrievals of aerosol type and size distribution.Hyperspectral cloud-transmitted radiance measurements enable the retrieval of cloud properties from below clouds.These measurements tighten the closure between satellite and ground-based measurements. 4STAR incorporates amodular sun-tracking sky-scanning optical head with optical fiber signal transmission to rack mounted spectrometers,permitting miniaturization of the external optical tracking head, and future detector evolution.4STAR has supported a broad range of flight experiments since it was first flown in 2010. This experience provides thebasis for a series of improvements directed toward reducing measurement uncertainty and calibration complexity, andexpanding future measurement capabilities, to be incorporated into a new 5STAR instrument. A 9-channel photodioderadiometer with AERONET-matched bandpass filters will be incorporated to improve calibration stability. A wide dynamic range tracking camera will provide a high precision solar position tracking signal as well as an image of sky conditions around the solar axis. An ultrasonic window cleaning system design will be tested. A UV spectrometer tailored for formaldehyde and SO2 gas retrievals will be added to the spectrometer enclosure. Finally, expansion capability for a 4 channel polarized radiometer to measure the Stokes polarization vector of sky light will be incorporated. This paper presents initial progress on this next-generation 5STAR instrument.

atmosphere↗

NASA NTRS2015

Covariance Between Arctic Sea Ice and Clouds Within Atmospheric State Regimes at the Satellite Footprint Level

Understanding the cloud response to sea ice change is necessary for modeling Arctic climate. Previous work has primarily addressed this problem from the interannual variability perspective. This paper provides a refined perspective of sea ice-cloud relationship in the Arctic using a satellite footprint-level quantification of the covariance between sea ice and Arctic low cloud properties from NASA A-Train active remote sensing data. The covariances between Arctic low cloud properties and sea ice concentration are quantified by first partitioning each footprint into four atmospheric regimes defined using thresholds of lower tropospheric stability and mid-tropospheric vertical velocity. Significant regional variability in the cloud properties is found within the atmospheric regimes indicating that the regimes do not completely account for the influence of meteorology. Regional anomalies are used to account for the remaining meteorological influence on clouds. After accounting for meteorological regime and regional influences, a statistically significant but weak covariance between cloud properties and sea ice is found in each season for at least one atmospheric regime. Smaller average cloud fraction and liquid water are found within footprints with more sea ice. The largest-magnitude cloud-sea ice covariance occurs between 500m and 1.2 km when the lower tropospheric stability is between 16 and 24 K. The covariance between low cloud properties and sea ice is found to be largest in fall and is accompanied by significant changes in boundary layer temperature structure where larger average near-surface static stability is found at larger sea ice concentrations.

Taylor, Patrick C.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Radiative and Physiological Effects of Increased CO2: How Does This Interaction Affect Climate?

Several climate models indicate that in a 2xCO2 environment, temperature and precipitation would increase and runoff would increase faster than precipitation. These models, however, did not allow the vegetation to increase its leaf density as a response to the physiological effects of increased CO2 and consequent changes in climate. Other assessments included these interactions but did not account for the vegetation downregulation to reduce plant's photosynthetic activity and as such resulted in a weak vegetation negative response. When we combine these interactions in climate simulations with 2xCO2, the associated increase in precipitation contributes primarily to increase evapotranspiration rather than surface runoff, consistent with observations, and results in an additional cooling effect not fully accounted for in previous 2xCO2 simulations. By accelerating the water cycle, this feedback slows but does not alleviate the projected warming, reducing the land surface warming by 0.6 C. Compared to previous studies, these results imply that long term negative feedback from CO2-induced increases in vegetation density could reduce temperature following a stabilization of CO2 concentration.

Bounoua, Lahouari↗

NASA NTRS2022

Potential Link Between Ice Nucleation and Climate Model Spread in Arctic Amplification

Arctic amplification (AA) is simulated by all global climate models, however the spread in the degree of projected warming is large and the underlying mechanisms driving it are poorly understood. The impact of the temperature dependence of immersion freezing on cloud feedbacks and AA is studied using NASA's GEOS-5 model. Parameterizations that exhibit low ice-nucleating particle (INP) concentrations in the high Arctic during summer are found to weaken the cloud-phase feedback. This allows sunlight to readily melt sea-ice in the summer, which decreases the stability of the lower troposphere, causing a decrease in wintertime cloud fraction over open ocean. Arctic amplification was found to span from ∼1.4 to >2.6, which spans 30% of the spread in AA in the coupled model intercomparison project models, depending on the temperature dependence of immersion freezing. These results suggest that summertime INP concentrations may provide an observational constraint on AA.

Ice Nucleation↗

NASA NTRS2021

Widespread Megaripple Activity Across the North Polar Ergs of Mars

The most expansive dune fields on Mars surround the northern polar cap where various aeolian bedform classes are modified by wind and ice. The morphology and dynamics of these ripples, intermediate-scale bedforms (termed megaripples and transverse aeolian ridges (TARs)), and sand dunes reflect information regarding regional boundary conditions. We found that populations of polar megaripples and larger TARs are distinct in terms of their morphology, spatial distribution, and mobility. Whereas regionally-restricted TARs appeared degraded and static in long-baseline observations, polar megaripples were not only widespread but migrating at relatively high rates (0.13± 0.03 m/Earth year) and possibly more active than other regions on Mars. This high level of activity is somewhat surprising since there is limited seasonality for aeolian transport due to surficial frost and ice during the latter half of the martian year. A comprehensive analysis of an Olympia Cavi dune field estimated that the advancement of megaripples, ripples, and dunes avalanches accounted for ~1%, ~10%, and ~100%, respectively, of the total aeolian system’s sand fluxes. This included dark-toned ripples that migrated the average equivalent of 9.6±6 m/yr over just 22 days in northern summer - unprecedented rates for Mars. While bedform transport rates are some of the highest yet reported on Mars, the sand flux contribution between the different bedforms does not substantially vary from equatorial sites with lower rates. Seasonal off-cap sublimation winds and summer-time polar storms are attributed as the cause for the elevated activity, rather than cryospheric processes. Plain Language Summary “Megaripples” are distinct wind-driven bedforms that occur on the surface of Earth and Mars, often with sizes between that of smaller ripples and larger dunes. Recent work has found the thin martian atmosphere can mobilize some coarse-grained megaripples, overturning prior notions that these were static relic landforms from a past climate. We mapped megaripples and adjacent bedforms across the north polar sand seas, the most expansive collection of dune fields on Mars. Megaripples were found to be widespread across the region and migrating at relatively high rates relative to other sites on Mars that are at lower latitudes. This enhanced activity is likely related to the greater sand fluxes found for neighboring dunes which are driven by summer-time seasonal winds when polar ice is sublimating. In contrast, other megaripples appear to be stabilized, a likely result of inter-granular ice within low wind areas.

Matthew Chojnacki↗

DOE OSTI2022

AICCA: AI-Driven Cloud Classification Atlas

Clouds play an important role in the Earth’s energy budget, and their behavior is one of the largest uncertainties in future climate projections. Satellite observations should help in understanding cloud responses, but decades and petabytes of multispectral cloud imagery have to date received only limited use. This study describes a new analysis approach that reduces the dimensionality of satellite cloud observations by grouping them via a novel automated, unsupervised cloud classification technique based on a convolutional autoencoder, an artificial intelligence (AI) method good at identifying patterns in spatial data. Our technique combines a rotation-invariant autoencoder and hierarchical agglomerative clustering to generate cloud clusters that capture meaningful distinctions among cloud textures, using only raw multispectral imagery as input. Cloud classes are therefore defined based on spectral properties and spatial textures without reliance on location, time/season, derived physical properties, or pre-designated class definitions. We use this approach to generate a unique new cloud dataset, the AI-driven cloud classification atlas (AICCA), which clusters 22 years of ocean images from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua and Terra instruments—198 million patches, each roughly 100 km × 100 km (128 × 128 pixels)—into 42 AI-generated cloud classes, a number determined via a newly-developed stability protocol that we use to maximize richness of information while ensuring stable groupings of patches. AICCA thereby translates 801 TB of satellite images into 54.2 GB of class labels and cloud top and optical properties, a reduction by a factor of 15,000. The 42 AICCA classes produce meaningful spatio-temporal and physical distinctions and capture a greater variety of cloud types than do the nine International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) categories—for example, multiple textures in the stratocumulus decks along the West coasts of North and South America. We conclude that our methodology has explanatory power, capturing regionally unique cloud classes and providing rich but tractable information for global analysis. AICCA delivers the information from multi-spectral images in a compact form, enables data-driven diagnosis of patterns of cloud organization, provides insight into cloud evolution on timescales of hours to decades, and helps democratize climate research by facilitating access to core data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Observational evidence for groundwater influence on crop yields in the United States

As climate change shifts crop exposure to dry and wet extremes, a better understanding of factors governing crop response is needed. Recent studies identified shallow groundwater—groundwater within or near the crop rooting zone—as influential, yet existing evidence is largely based on theoretical crop model simulations, indirect or static groundwater data, or small-scale field studies. Here, we use observational satellite yield data and dynamic water table simulations from 1999 to 2018 to provide field-scale evidence for shallow groundwater effects on maize yields across the United States Corn Belt. We identify three lines of evidence supporting groundwater influence: 1) crop model simulations better match observed yields after improvements in groundwater representation; 2) machine learning analysis of observed yields and modeled groundwater levels reveals a subsidy zone between 1.1 and 2.5 m depths, with yield penalties at shallower depths and no effect at deeper depths; and 3) locations with groundwater typically in the subsidy zone display higher yield stability across time. We estimate an average 3.4% yield increase when groundwater levels are at optimum depth, and this effect roughly doubles in dry conditions. Groundwater yield subsidies occur ~35% of years on average across locations, with 75% of the region benefitting in at least 10% of years. Overall, we estimate that groundwater-yield interactions had a net monetary contribution of approximately $10 billion from 1999 to 2018. This study provides empirical evidence for region-wide groundwater yield impacts and further underlines the need for better quantification of groundwater levels and their dynamic responses to short- and long-term weather conditions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Identification of opportunities for integrating chemical processes for carbon (dioxide) utilization to nuclear power plants

The energy and industrial sectors are responsible for more than 75% of global carbon dioxide emissions, which are primary contributors to climate change. Decarbonization strategies to reduce overall carbon dioxide emissions are urgently needed. Among the numerous decarbonization strategies that are being defined and implemented, a particular strategy of interest for the present work is “the Re-X or zero waste” strategy, which involves recycling, reuse, repurposing, and remanufacturing of industrial emissions, by-products, and waste in general. A circular value chain or Circular Economy is embedded within this strategy. In a circular carbon economy, efficient reuse of emitted carbon dioxide is considered. However, the stability of carbon dioxide implies the requirement of significant amounts of energy for its transformation into value-added chemicals or products, which must be supplied by low carbon emitting energy sources. Nuclear power plants are low carbon energy sources that, additionally to electricity, could also supply heat and radiation for chemical transformations. This work identifies the opportunities and challenges for the development of integrated energy systems to upgrade and transform carbon dioxide, involving chemical and nuclear energy. The analysis encompasses possible use of the different forms of energy that can be obtain from nuclear reactors (i.e., radiation, electricity, and heat), by reviewing the published literature on potential routes for its conversion. Overall, our review indicates that an universal technology of the one-fits-all solution-type is an utopic dream. Instead, a suite of (contaminants tolerant) technologies for processing various concentrations CO 2 and producing a variety of products is currently needed.

08 HYDROGEN↗

NASA NTRS2004

Obliquity Variations of Extrasolar Terrestrial Planets

A planet's obliquity, which is the angle between its orbital angular momentum and its rotational angular momentum, is an important factor in determining its climate and habitability. For small obliquities, as well as obliquities close to 180 degrees, the planet receives more radiant energy from its star at equatorial latitudes than near its poles, whereas the poles are heated the most for obliquities near 90 degrees. Jacques Laskar has analyzed possible obliquity variations of the planets in our Solar System. His study also considers the same planets with different rotational periods, and the Earth without the Moon. He finds, using frequency map analysis, that the obliquity of the Earth is stabilized by the Moon, and can vary by at most a few degrees. In contrast, the obliquity of Mars can range from 0 to 60 degrees, and a hypothetical moonless Earth's axial tilt could be close to 0 degrees or as large as 85 degrees. Numerical integrations by Laskar and others have shown that Mars' obliquity indeed varies over most of its permitted range on time scales of tens of millions of years. In contrast, our analysis shows that the obliquity of a moonless Earth appears to be confined to the range of approximately 12 - 38 degrees over time scales of 100 million years. Results of ongoing longer integrations will be presented, and their implications discussed.

Lissauer, Jack J.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Simulating Atmospheric Processes in Earth System Models and Quantifying Uncertainties With Deep Learning Multi‐Member and Stochastic Parameterizations

Abstract Deep learning is a powerful tool to represent subgrid processes in climate models, but many application cases have so far used idealized settings and deterministic approaches. Here, we develop stochastic parameterizations with calibrated uncertainty quantification to learn subgrid convective and turbulent processes and surface radiative fluxes of a superparameterization embedded in an Earth System Model (ESM). We explore three methods to construct stochastic parameterizations: (a) a single Deep Neural Network (DNN) with Monte Carlo Dropout; (b) a multi‐member parameterization; and (c) a Variational Encoder Decoder with latent space perturbation. We show that the multi‐member parameterization improves the representation of convective processes, especially in the planetary boundary layer, compared to individual DNNs. The respective uncertainty quantification illustrates that methods (b) and (c) are advantageous compared to a dropout‐based DNN parameterization regarding the spread of convective processes. Hybrid simulations with our best‐performing multi‐member parameterizations remained challenging and crash within the first days. Therefore, we develop a pragmatic partial coupling strategy relying on the superparameterization for condensate emulation. Partial coupling reduces the computational efficiency of hybrid Earth‐like simulations but enables model stability over 5 months with our multi‐member parameterizations. However, our hybrid simulations exhibit biases in thermodynamic fields and differences in precipitation patterns. Despite this, the multi‐member parameterizations enable improvements in reproducing tropical extreme precipitation compared to a traditional convection parameterization. Despite these challenges, our results indicate the potential of a new generation of multi‐member machine learning parameterizations leveraging uncertainty quantification to improve the representation of stochasticity of subgrid effects.

Behrens, Gunnar [Deutsches Zentrum für Luft‐ und R↗

NASA NTRS2010

Quantifying the Negative Feedback of Vegetation to Greenhouse Warming: A Modeling Approach

Several climate models indicate that in a 2 x CO2 environment, temperature and precipitation would increase and runoff would increase faster than precipitation. These models, however, did not allow the vegetation to increase its leaf density as a response to the physiological effects of increased CO2 and consequent changes in climate. Other assessments included these interactions but did not account for the vegetation down-regulation to reduce plant's photosynthetic activity and as such resulted in a weak vegetation negative response. When we combine these interactions in climate simulations with 2 x CO2, the associated increase in precipitation contributes primarily to increase evapotranspiration rather than surface runoff, consistent with observations, and results in an additional cooling effect not fully accounted for in previous simulations with elevated CO2. By accelerating the water cycle, this feedback slows but does not alleviate the projected warming, reducing the land surface warming by 0.6 C. Compared to previous studies, these results imply that long term negative feedback from CO2-induced increases in vegetation density could reduce temperature following a stabilization of CO2 concentration.

Bounous, L.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Global Ocean Evaporation: How Well Can We Estimate Interannual to Decadal Variability?

Evaporation from the world's oceans constitutes the largest component of the global water balance. It is important not only as the ultimate source of moisture that is tied to the radiative processes determining Earth's energy balance but also to freshwater availability over land, governing habitability of the planet. Here we focus on variability of ocean evaporation on scales from interannual to decadal by appealing to three sources of data: the new MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications -2); climate models run with historical sea-surface temperatures, ice and atmospheric constituents (so-called AMIP experiments); and state-of-the-art satellite retrievals from the Seaflux and HOAPS (Hamburg Ocean-Atmosphere Parameters and Fluxes from Satellite) projects. Each of these sources has distinct advantages as well as drawbacks. MERRA-2, like other reanalyses, synthesizes evaporation estimates consistent with observationally constrained physical and dynamical models-but data stream discontinuities are a major problem for interpreting multi-decadal records. The climate models used in data assimilation can also be run with lesser constraints such as with SSTs and sea-ice (i.e. AMIPs) or with additional, minimal observations of surface pressure and marine observations that have longer and less fragmentary observational records. We use the new ERA-20C reanalysis produced by ECMWF embodying the latter methodology. Still, the model physics biases in climate models and the lack of a predicted surface energy balance are of concern. Satellite retrievals and comparisons to ship-based measurements offer the most observationally-based estimates, but sensor inter-calibration, algorithm retrieval assumptions, and short records are dominant issues. Our strategy depends on maximizing the advantages of these combined records. The primary diagnostic tool used here is an analysis of bulk aerodynamic computations produced by these sources and uses a first-order Taylor series analysis of wind speed, SST, near-surface stability and relative humidity variations around climatology to gauge the importance of these components. We find that the MERRA-2 evaporation record is strongly influenced by the availability of wind speed and humidity from passive microwave imagers beginning in the late 1980s as well as by the SST record. The trend over the period 1980 to present is nearly 10%. AMIP or the ERA-20C trends are much smaller. We find that ENSO-related signals involving both wind speed and thermodynamic variability remain the primary signal in the latter and are confirmed by satellite retrievals. We present uncertainty estimates based on the various data sources and discuss the implications for GEWEX water and energy budget science challenges.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

DOE OSTI2024

CO2 Capture Using Amines Bound to Silica

One of the main culprits of global warming is the increased amount of carbon dioxide, or CO2, in the atmosphere. NASA's global climate reports a 13% increase in atmospheric CO2 from 2000 to present. Adsorptive CO2 capture by nitrogen groups of amine-containing solvents is one of the most mature technologies deployed in petrochemical and natural gas processing plants to purify industrial gases. However, key challenges in widespread application include solvent induced reactor corrosion, amine degradation, and high regeneration energy for repeated cycling. An alternative approach is to immobilize amines on solid supports. Key performance metrics of solid amine-based CO2 adsorbents include the CO2 adsorption capacity and stability to degradation over hundreds of thousands of regeneration cycles. Our research aims to develop descriptors for CO2 capture capacity and stability against oxygen-induced degradation for amines bound to porous silica supports using experimental and computational techniques. We experimentally measure the change in CO2-uptake using solid amine adsorbents with varying chemical compositions and exposure to varying gas streams and use high-performance computers to simulate the nature and strength of CO2-adsorption and oxidative degradation reaction mechanisms. Insights from our work can facilitate the development of stable solid amine adsorbents for large-scale CO2 capture processes.

amines↗

DOE OSTI2022

Connecting the Radiative Influences of Aerosol upon the Mass Flux Profiles of Shallow Cumuli across the Southeast Atlantic Ocean Basin and its Boundaries (Final Report)

The Atlantic Ocean covers approximately 25% of Earth’s surface and the atmosphere above it is home to a complex array of clouds and aerosols that have important influences on regional and global weather and climate. These influences must be accurately depicted in short range, medium range, seasonal, and climate forecast models. Conditions over the tropical Atlantic are particularly complex due to continental scale plumes of dust from the Sahara Desert and smoke from agricultural burning in Africa that drift across the Atlantic Ocean basin toward the Americas. These plumes are often found meandering in the lower atmosphere above shallow tropical clouds that form above the ocean surface, presumably mingling with these clouds on occasion due to convective mixing processes. Elevated dust and smoke particles absorb incoming sunlight and substantially warm the marine atmosphere in the layer in which they are present. This warming may alter the thermal stability of the marine atmosphere and may throttle or enhance the development of clouds, change their internal structure and the rate at which they precipitate. Alternatively, it may isolate the lower atmosphere from drier layers above enabling water vapor to accumulate near the ocean surface potentially leading to the development of deeper convection. Our study was organized around the principal concept of determining the impact of African smoke and dust plumes upon cloud development at ASI and understanding how a popular shallow convection parameterization used in models responds to the presence of this aerosol. We analyzed observations collected during the US Department of Energy (DOE) Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds (LASIC) campaign using the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program’s Mobile Facility #1 (AMF-1), which was deployed to Ascension Island (ASI) in Southeastern Atlantic for a one-year period. Ascension Island is immediately downwind from an African source of these plumes, but far enough removed to enable the lower atmosphere to have reacted to their presence. A main goal of our study was to compute radiative heating rate profiles over Ascension Island and along the trajectory from the biomass burning regions along coastal Africa to Ascension Island. To compute the radiative heating rate due to aerosols and clouds, we employed observed profiles of temperature, humidity, and clouds from LASIC alongside aerosol optical properties from the Modern-era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2), as input for the Rapid Radiation Transfer Model (RRTM). Radiative heating was also assessed across the southeast Atlantic Ocean using an ensemble of back trajectories from the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model. We were successful in this effort and the resulting publication is already being cited despite its relatively short lifetime in the literature. The second part of our study involved the process-level representation of the clouds observed over the Southeastern Atlantic in models. Our initial task, upon which the balance of this portion of the study depended, was to evaluate the representativeness of the clouds observed by AMF-1. What orographic influence did Ascension Island have on the measured cloud structure? We set out to answer this question by trying to separate observations that were clearly indicative of orographic forcing from those that were representative of open ocean. The siting of AMF-1, which was 340-m above sea-level on the slope of a steep escarpment, proved demonstrably problematic for cloud process measurements. Despite considerable effort using multiple approaches including artificial intelligence (AI), we were unable to successfully compensate for the orographic forcing present at the AMF-1 site on ASI and, hence, produce process-level summaries of the convective mass flux representative of open ocean over the Southeastern Atlantic. Even though the project has officially ended, we are making a final attempt using two new types of clustering algorithm (i.e., AI) on the recommendation of a former student, who is an expert in this area. Since we have only recently begun to test these new AI schemes, the recommendations from the second part of our project outlined below are based on our experience at the time of this report.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Towards understanding the robust strengthening of ENSO and more frequent extreme El Niño events in CMIP6 global warming simulations

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has profound impacts on weather patterns across the globe, yet there is no consensus on its response to global warming. Several modelling studies find a stronger ENSO in global warming scenarios, while other studies suggest ENSO weakening. Using a broad range of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) and four types of warming experiments, here we show that the majority of the models predict a stronger ENSO by century-end in Shared Social Pathway (SSP) experiments, and in idealized 1pctCO 2 and abrupt 4xCO 2 experiments. Several models, however, do predict no change or ENSO weakening, especially in the idealized experiments. Critically, the strongest forcing (abrupt-4xCO 2 ) does not induce the strongest ENSO response, while differences between the models are much greater than those between warming scenarios. For the long-term response (over 1000 years) the models disagree even on the sign of change. Furthermore, changes in ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) variability are only modestly correlated with the tropical Pacific mean state change. The highest correlation for ENSO SST amplitude is found with the mean zonal SST gradient in the SSP5-8.5 experiment (R = –0.58). In contrast, changes in ENSO rainfall variability correlate well with changes in the mean state, as well as with changes in ENSO SST variability. When evaluating the Bjerknes Stability Index for a subset of models, we find that it is not a reliable predictor of ENSO strengthening, as this index tends to predict greater stability with warming. We argue that the enhanced ENSO stability is offset by increases in atmospheric noise or/and potential nonlinear effects. However, a robust inter-model mechanism that can explain a stronger ENSO simulated with global warming is still lacking. Therefore, caution should be exercised when considering ENSO changes based on a single model or warming scenario.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2021

Distinct Surface Response to Black Carbon Aerosols

For the radiative impact of individual climate forcings, most previous studies focused on the global mean values at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), and less attention has been paid to surface processes, especially for black carbon (BC) aerosols. In this study, the surface radiative responses to five different forcing agents were analyzed by using idealized model simulations. Our analyses reveal that for greenhouse gases, solar irradiance, and scattering aerosols, the surface temperature changes are mainly dictated by the changes of surface radiative heating, but for BC, surface energy redistribution between different components plays a more crucial role. Globally, when a unit BC forcing is imposed at TOA, the net shortwave radiation at the surface decreases by −5.87±0.67 W m −2 (W m −2 ) −1 (averaged over global land without Antarctica), which is partially offset by increased downward longwave radiation (2.32±0.38 W m −2 (W m −2 ) −1 from the warmer atmosphere, causing a net decrease in the incoming downward surface radiation of −3.56±0.60 W m −2 (W m −2 ) −1 . Despite a reduction in the downward radiation energy, the surface air temperature still increases by 0.25±0.08 K because of less efficient energy dissipation, manifested by reduced surface sensible (−2.88±0.43 W m −2 (W m −2 ) −1 ) and latent heat flux (−1.54±0.27 W m −2 (W m −2 ) −1 ), as well as a decrease in Bowen ratio (−0.20±0.07 (W m −2 ) −1 ). Such reductions of turbulent fluxes can be largely explained by enhanced air stability (0.07±0.02 K (W m −2 ) −1 ), measured as the difference of the potential temperature between 925 hPa and surface, and reduced surface wind speed (−0.05±0.01 m s −1 (W m −2 ) −1 ). The enhanced stability is due to the faster atmospheric warming relative to the surface, whereas the reduced wind speed can be partially explained by enhanced stability and reduced Equator-to-pole atmospheric temperature gradient. These rapid adjustments under BC forcing occur in the lower atmosphere and propagate downward to influence the surface energy redistribution and thus surface temperature response, which is not observed under greenhouse gases or scattering aerosols. Our study provides new insights into the impact of absorbing aerosols on surface energy balance and surface temperature response.

radiative impact↗

NASA NTRS1991

Planetary engineering

Assuming commercial fusion power, heavy lift vehicles and major advances in genetic engineering, the authors survey possible late-21st century methods of working major transformations in planetary environments. Much more Earthlike climates may be produced on Mars by generating low freezing point greenhouse gases from indigenous materials; on Venus by biological conversion of CO2 to graphite, by canceling the greenhouse effect with high-altitude absorbing fine particles, or by a sunshield at the first Lagrangian point; and on Titan by greenhouses and/or fusion warming. However, in our present state of ignorance we cannot guarantee a stable endstate or exclude unanticipated climatic feedbacks or other unintended consequences. Moreover, as the authors illustrate by several examples, many conceivable modes of planetary engineering are so wasteful of scarce solar system resources and so destructive of important scientific information as to raise profound ethical issues, even if they were economically feasible, which they are not. Global warming on Earth may lead to calls for mitigation by planetary engineering, e.g., emplacement and replenishment of anti-greenhouse layers at high altitudes, or sunshields in space. But here especially we must be concerned about precision, stability, and inadvertent side-effects. The safest and most cost-effective means of countering global warming - beyond, e.g., improved energy efficiency, CFC bans and alternative energy sources - is the continuing reforestation of approximately 2 times 107 sq km of the Earth's surface. This can be accomplished with present technology and probably at the least cost.

Pollack, James B.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Maritime Aerosol and CCN Profiles Derived From Ship₋Based Measurements Over Eastern North Pacific During MAGIC

Atmospheric aerosols are widely recognized to give rise to a substantial radiative forcing to the climate by scattering and absorbing radiation and by modifying the microphysical, lifetime, and radiative properties of clouds. During the Marine ARM GPCI Investigation of Clouds (MAGIC) over the Eastern North Pacific (ENP), the ship-based measured cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentration at 0.2% supersaturation (N CCN,0.2 ) and condensation nuclei concentration (N CN ) had mean values of 116.7 and 219.4 cm ⁻3 , with the highest concentrations found closest to LA due to an increase in aerosol sources. Moving westward, both N CCN,0.2 and N CN gradually decreased until stabilizing near 100 cm ⁻3 and 200 cm ⁻3 , respectively. Using the methods proposed by Ghan and Collins (2004), https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0426(2004)021<0387:uoisdt>2.0.co;2 and Ghan et al. (2006), https://doi.org/10.1029/2004jd005752, N CCN,0.2 profiles are retrieved using the surface measured N CCN,0.2 as a constraint. For coupled conditions, correlations between the retrieved N CCN,0.2 profiles and cloud-droplet number concentration (N C ) increase from 0.26 at the surface to 0.38 near cloud base, particularly true for non-drizzling clouds. Although the correlations are lower than expected, the percentage increase (46.2%) is encouraging. Finally, the relationships between cloud breakup (CB) and the stratocumulus to cumulus transition (SCT) with environmental conditions and associated aerosols are also studied. The decreased N CN trend east of CB is mainly caused by precipitation scavenging, while the increased N CN trend west of CB is strongly associated with the increased surface wind speed and fewer drizzle events. A further study is needed using high-resolution models to simulate these events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗