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DOE OSTI2022

Wind and Solar Hybrid Power Plants for Energy Resilience

Wind-solar-storage hybrid power plants represent a significant and growing share of new proposed projects in the United States (U.S.). Their uptake is supported by increasing renewable energy market share, technical abilities for dispatch and control, and decreasing wind, solar, and battery storage costs. Simultaneously, generation and storage resources are increasingly used in distributed power systems. While concerns around the reliability of the aging, transforming U.S. electric grid are growing, diversifying energy resources through hybridization or spatial distribution provides an opportunity to enhance power system resilience compared to single-source generation. Understanding where to build hybrids for resilience value, rather than bulk power supply, has not been fully explored in previous studies. Therefore, in this study, we complete a national complementarity analysis to identify areas in the U.S. that are particularly suited for wind-solar hybrid power plant development. We show the importance of seasonal and diurnal patterns in assessing complementarity, and identify that regions in the Great Plains, Midwest, and Southeast are particularly suited for hybrid power plants. We demonstrate the resilience value of hybridization for a reference system based near Memphis, Tennessee, and show optimal sizing of wind, solar, and storage assets given 1.0 and 0.9 critical load factors. Results indicate that pairing wind and solar assets better meet constant load demand and reduce storage requirements compared to solar alone. These results enable future work integrating complementarity metrics in resilience frameworks and indicate a need for more finer resolution of local resource, demand, and hazard data.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Cyber-Attack Detection and Accommodation for the Energy Delivery System

The goals of this project were to create a software system with a suite of key algorithms for cyber-attack detection and accommodation providing domain layer protection for critical power generation assets. Example assets included gas and steam turbines, heat recovery steam generators, and electrical generators. The aggressive algorithm goals were aimed at reducing the false positive rates in threat detection to <1% using learnings from many evolving disciplines (power turbine and generator physics, power system modeling, modern control theory, system identification, machine learning, deep learning, mathematics and data science). Additional goals for the algorithms involved localizing threats on-the-fly to know in which monitoring node the effects of attacks are present, and then providing accommodation to keep the system running uninterrupted much of the time in the presence of the attack. Accommodation had a performance goal of providing resiliency when up to 50% of monitoring nodes are in an attack state.

cybersecurity, cyber-physical↗

DOE OSTI2022

Additively Manufactured Tamper Evident Container (TEC)

The protection of sensitive data, proprietary information, and physical assets from adversarial disclosure is a high priority in today’s environment of government and industrial espionage. Furthermore, knowledge of the security history and monitoring for potential acquisition or disclosure of the protected assets from oppositional sources is equally important. In 2016, as part of an LANL Institute for Materials Science (IMS) rapid response research initiative, the investigators of this technology demonstration project developed the concept of an additively manufactured tamper resistant container that possessed tamper evident features. Tamper evident seals and detection technologies have a long history in protecting consumers from product tampering, recording the installation and activation of mechanical safety panels and fasteners on dangerous electro-mechanical systems, and serving as a warranty void indicator on expensive electronic equipment. Examples of such tamper evident seals range from “no-tech” versions, e.g., the paper seals under medicine caps, to “high-tech” seals that are radio frequency-active and include encryption capabilities used by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to monitor stored nuclear materials in support of safeguards missions. The tamper evident container (TEC) technology would have many uses.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Distributed Energy Resource Cybersecurity Framework and Cyber Range Integration

Distributed energy resource (DER) systems feature complex, data-driven communications networks that require careful system coordination and constant vigilance to ensure that grid assets are secure. Because DERs are an important component of the decarbonization strategy, agencies need to secure energy data that could implicate issues of national security if compromised. To help federal energy managers assess, monitor, and manage cybersecurity while achieving decarbonization, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Distributed Energy Resource Cybersecurity Framework (DER-CF) offers a comprehensive, web-based assessment tool focusing on cyber governance or policies, technical management, and physical security. The DER-CF currently presents users with a series of pertinent cybersecurity questions that are used to generate a site-specific report and recommendations. This paper outlines a plan to integrate the DER-CF with another key asset-NREL's cyber range-to visualize cybersecurity resilience and compliance and to enhance the usability and accessibility of the DER-CF for federal facility energy managers and planners. This integration will result in a visualization environment to interpret and interact with compliance data. Its development will include regular conversations with stakeholders to assess the effectiveness of these efforts, refine the visualization capability, and ensure its value to our partners.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Low-Cost Sulfur Thermal Storage for Increased Flexibility and Improved Economics of Fossil-Fueled Electricity Generating Units (Final Report)

The US electric grid relies on conventional fossil fuel power plants for reliable and secure power, but these plants suffer from physical and financial strain due to the influx of inexpensive and variable solar and wind electricity. Conventional power plants need to generate electricity flexibly and on-demand to accommodate these renewable resources on the grid. Integrating a low-cost thermal energy storage (TES) gives fossil assets the ability to regulate their output efficiently and optimize the plant operation to maximize revenue in the wholesale electricity market. Element 16’s TES concept uses sulfur, a byproduct of the oil & gas industry, as the storage media that is 10 times cheaper than molten salt used in commercial two-tank TES technology. In this project, the team completed a detailed feasibility and technoeconomic study establishing the impact, cost and performance of molten sulfur TES system integrated with fossil assets.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Cybersecurity and Digital Components: Supply Chain Deep Dive Assessment

The report “America’s Strategy to Secure the Supply Chain for a Robust Clean Energy Transition” lays out the challenges and opportunities faced by the United States in the energy supply chain as well as the federal government plans to address these challenges and opportunities. It is accompanied by several issue-specific deep dive assessments, including this one, in response to Executive Order 14017 “America’s Supply Chains,” which directs the Secretary of Energy to submit a report on supply chains for the energy sector industrial base. The Executive Order is helping the federal government to build more secure and diverse U.S. supply chains, including energy supply chains. As the energy sector has become more globalized and increasingly complex, digitized, and even virtualized, its supply chain risk for digital components – the software, virtual platforms and services, and data – in energy systems has evolved and expanded. All digital components in U.S. energy sector systems are vulnerable and may be subject to cyber supply cha in risks stemming from a variety of threats, vulnerabilities, and impacts. This includes digital components in all systems within the ESIB, namely those systems operated by asset owners across different energy subsectors (e.g., electricity, oil and natural gas, and renewables) and the systems operated by a worldwide industrial complex with capabilities to perform research and development and design, produce, operate, and maintain energy sector systems, subsystems, components, or parts to meet U.S. energy requirements. Supply chain risks for digital components including software, virtual platforms and services, and data have grown in recent years as increasingly sophisticated cyber adversaries have targeted exploiting vulnerabilities in these digital assets. Supply chain risks for digital components in energy sector systems will continue to evolve and likely increase as these systems are increasingly interconnected, digitized, and remotely operated.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Cybersecurity for Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure

As the U.S. electrifies the transportation sector, cyberattacks targeting vehicle charging could impact several critical infrastructure sectors including power systems, manufacturing, medical services, and agriculture. This is a growing area of concern as charging stations increase power delivery capabilities and must communicate to authorize charging, sequence the charging process, and manage load (grid operators, vehicles, OEM vendors, charging network operators, etc.). The research challenges are numerous and complicated because there are many end users, stakeholders, and software and equipment vendors interests involved. Poorly implemented electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE), electric vehicle (EV), or grid operator communication systems could be a significant risk to EV adoption because the political, social, and financial impact of cyberattacks — or public perception of such — would ripple across the industry and produce lasting effects. Unfortunately, there is currently no comprehensive EVSE cybersecurity approach and limited best practices have been adopted by the EV/EVSE industry. There is an incomplete industry understanding of the attack surface, interconnected assets, and unsecured inter faces. Comprehensive cybersecurity recommendations founded on sound research are necessary to secure EV charging infrastructure. This project provided the power, security, and automotive industry with a strong technical basis for securing this infrastructure by developing threat models, determining technology gaps, and identifying or developing effective countermeasures. Specifically, the team created a cybersecurity threat model and performed a technical risk assessment of EVSE assets across multiple manufacturers and vendors, so that automotive, charging, and utility stakeholders could better protect customers, vehicles, and power systems in the face of new cyber threats.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Integrated Hydrogen Energy Storage System (IHESS) for Power Generation (Final Report)

GTI Energy partnered with Praxair Inc., a subsidiary of Linde PLC (Praxair), the Center for Electromechanics at the University of Texas at Austin (CEM), Entergy Corporation (Entergy), Quanta Services (Quanta) and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) to perform a feasibility study that determines the economic and technical feasibility of low-carbon hydrogen energy storage integrated with a site-specific fossil fuel asset to decarbonize electricity production using the Integrated Hydrogen Energy Storage System (IHESS). The proposed IHESS concept is novel, as it sought to leverage the existing natural gas infrastructure, hydrogen production and pipelines, existing underground hydrogen storage system and power plants in the Gulf Coast region to reduce carbon emissions and generate lowcarbon electricity. This study has shown that IHESS has a promising commercial outlook as the concept leverages existing natural gas infrastructure assets and hydrogen production and storage that are unique to the Texas gulf coast region. A key hurdle with hydrogen supply and transportation has been capital investment. By storing hydrogen in underground storage and delivering it as a fuel source during peak demand using the existing infrastructure minimizes the capital investment. Regional petrochemical producers who are actively seeking opportunities to reduce costs and lower emissions should find the IHESS concept very appealing.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Bridging Equipment Reliability Data and Robust Decisions in a Plant Operation Context

In order to reduce operation and maintenance (O&M) costs, nuclear power plants (NPPs) are moving from corrective and periodic maintenance to predictive maintenance strategies. Such transition requires changes on the data that needs to be retrieved and on the type of decision processes to be employed. Advanced monitoring and data analysis technologies are essential to support predictive strategies. They can in fact provide precise information about health of a component, track its degradation trends, and provide information of its expected failure time. With such information, maintenance operations for a component can be performed right before its expected failure time. This dynamic context of O&M operations requires new methods to analyze data, propagate component health information from the component to the system level, and optimize plant resources. In this respect, the risk informed asset management (RIAM) project has been tasked to develop and test this new class of methods into a risk analytics toolset. This toolset consists of data analytics tools coupled with reliability methods designed to manage plant assets and performances in a predictive maintenance context. This report shows the latest improvements on such development and the initial testing of our methods on the three main research areas that the RIAM project is focusing on. These areas are the following: equipment reliability data analytics, system reliability modeling, and plant resources optimization methods. We show how the methods developed in these areas can support predictive maintenance strategies by: 1) analyzing equipment reliability data (either in numeric and textual form), 2) assessing component and system health through an innovative margin-based reliability approach, and 3) identifying the most critical components and set optimal maintenance schedule based on plant economic and operational constraints.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Computational Framework for Energy Storage Participation in Transmission Planning with Electricity Market Participation

Energy storage technologies—including pumped storage hydropower (PSH), batteries, and other technologies—have been technically proven to be capable of providing transmission services by regulating power flows and providing voltage support. These technologies will potentially increase the flexibility of transmission infrastructure and may defer (or eliminate) the need for transmission upgrades or new investments. On the regulatory side, Congress and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) have issued several orders over decades that have established energy storage’s (ES) eligibility as a transmission asset. The orders have required transmission planning entities to provide a level playing field where ES can participate in the transmission planning process (TPP) without undue discrimination and preference of technology. These developments pave the way for ES to participate in transmission planning as a transmission asset. On the other hand, as a flexible resource, ES can play an important role in the electricity market to enable more renewable energy integration by providing energy and grid reliability services. This could bring more revenue in return.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Enhancing Local Grid Resilience with Small Hydropower Hybrids: Proving the concept through demonstration, simulation, and analysis with Idaho Falls Power

Large hydropower, connected to the transmission system and typically possessing significant ability to balance grid frequency, has long been central to black start plans in regions where it is present. Small hydropower possesses most of the attributes required for black start but is often connected to distribution or sub-transmission systems and has less ability to balance grid frequency. Integrating energy storage such as batteries or ultracapacitors increases the combined asset’s ability to balance frequency. This asset integration enables a bottom-up grid restoration paradigm in which critical electric loads on the local distribution system can be powered even when the regional transmission system is down. This report presents a field demonstration conducted with Idaho Falls Power that proved this concept. The contribution of energy storage in restoring the small hydro-dominated distribution grid and its operational sensitivity across different control settings are further analyzed using high-fidelity simulations. Readers will learn about technical details on the field demonstration setup, energy storage contribution to black start, detailed simulation steps of islanded distribution grid restoration, and usage of field demonstration measurements for transient model refinements. Collectively this report points to a great opportunity for small hydropower to enhance resilience of local electric grids.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Scalable Technologies Achieving Risk-Informed Condition-Based Predictive Maintenance Enhancing the Economic Performance of Operating Nuclear Power Plants

The primary objective of the research presented in this report is to develop scalable technologies that are deployable across plant assets and across the nuclear fleet to achieve risk-informed predictive maintenance (PdM) strategies at commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs). Over the years, the nuclear fleet has relied on labor-intensive and time-consuming preventive maintenance (PM) programs, driving up operation and maintenance (O&M) costs to achieve high capacity factors. A well-constructed risk-informed PdM approach for an identified plant asset has been developed in this research, taking advantage of advancements in data analytics, machine learning (ML), artificial intelligence (AI), physics-informed modeling, and visualization. These technologies would allow commercial NPPs to reliably transition from current labor-intensive PM programs to a technology driven PdM program, eliminating unnecessary O&M costs. The work presented in the report is being developed as part of a collaborative research effort between Idaho National Laboratory and Public Service Enterprise Group Nuclear, LLC. This report (1) reflects the results of work by LWRS Program researchers with PSEG, Nuclear LLC-owned Salem and Hope Creek Nuclear Power Plants; (2) presents utilization of circulating water system (CWS) heterogeneous data and fault modes from both the Salem and Hope Creek nuclear power plant sites to develop salient fault signatures associated with each fault mode; (3) describes the integration of component-level predictive models into a robust system-level model enabled by the federated-transfer learning; (4) describes the development of physics-informed model of circulating water pump and motor; (5) develops a scalable risk and economic model; and (6) outlines the development of a user-centric visualization application. The outcomes presented in this report lays the foundation and provides a much-needed technical basis to focus on explainability and trustworthiness of ML and AI-based technologies, as part of future research.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2022

Clean Energy Education and Training Resources and Opportunities in New York's Southern Tier Region

New York's Southern Tier Region is experiencing high growth and investment in the clean energy sector and is anticipating more jobs to come in energy efficiency, renewable energy, and manufacturing in the coming years. The Network for a Sustainable Tomorrow (NEST) is a nonprofit network of programs working to develop a regional backbone system for education and training programs as well as curricula to support the workforce needed for the region's growing industries to succeed. Through its participation in the US Department of Energy's Better Buildings Workforce Accelerator, NEST requested technical assistance in conducting a landscape and needs assessment of the region's existing clean energy education and workforce development assets. This report supports NEST's efforts by providing a baseline of clean energy employment data, an inventory and gap analysis of the education and workforce development assets currently available and serving the Southern Tier Region, and case studies of innovative and successful regional clean energy education and workforce coalitions from around the county.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

ComEd Climate Risk and Adaptation Outlook, Phase 1: Temperature, Heat Index, and Average Wind

This Climate Risk and Adaptation Outlook report presents the research and findings of a joint venture between Commonwealth Edison (ComEd) and Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) to evaluate future climate risks to ComEd’s infrastructure and operations. ComEd recognizes that its position as the state of Illinois’ largest electric utility, serving roughly 70% of the state’s population, underscores the importance for communities across Illinois to consider climate risk as they plan for future conditions. Climate impacts, such as more severe heatwaves or more frequent flood events, can disrupt the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity and create public health challenges. Taking a proactive approach to adapt to climate risks will help ensure that ComEd continues to serve its growing customer-base reliably and efficiently. This Climate Risk and Adaptation Outlook serves as an important first step to inform ComEd’s grid planning efforts, but Argonne and ComEd recognize that additional research beyond this report will be necessary to characterize future climate conditions more comprehensively throughout northern Illinois, to assess their impacts to grid assets and system operations, and to index effective adaptation options at an asset-level.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Oak Ridge National Laboratory FY 2023 Site Sustainability Plan With FY 2022 Performance Data

At the close of each fiscal year, the US Department of Energy (DOE) Sustainability Performance Division (SPD) issues guidance documents and technical resource aids/tools necessary for DOE sites and national laboratories to complete sustainability reporting requirements. SPD is part of the DOE Office of Asset Management. As required by DOE Order 436.1, Departmental Sustainability, “each site will develop and commit to an annual Site Sustainability Plan (SSP) that identifies its respective contribution toward meeting the DOE’s sustainability goals.” SPD collects and compiles information reported by each site to develop an agency-wide Sustainability Report and Implementation Plan, which is used to report DOE sustainability progress to the federal government as required by all major federal agencies. DOE launched a formal Sustainability Office and annual SSP process in 2011. Each year, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), in concert with the Office of Science (SC), provides the resources essential to fulfill its commitment to deliver a complete and accurate SSP report and quality performance data for entry into the DOE Sustainability Dashboard as managed by SPD. The performance data entered by each DOE site are then combined to disclose the progress of each DOE Program Office and are further combined to show comprehensive progress for the agency. The Office of Asset Management provides assistance to program offices in sustaining their missions, freeing up resources by reducing waste, avoiding excess expenditure on utilities, maximizing productivity, and improving the efficiency of facilities and processes. By focusing on mission needs, programs and associated DOE sites can help the agency meet its sustainability goals, as outlined in federal statutory and regulatory requirements. In FY 2022, the SSP guidance was updated to capture requirements from Executive Order (EO) 14008, Tackling the Climate Crisis at Home and Abroad, the Energy Act of 2020 (EAct 20), actions outlined in DOE’s Climate Adaptation & Resilience Plan and Sustainability Plan, and EO 14057, Catalyzing Clean Energy Industries and Jobs Through Federal Sustainability. Updates in SSP guidance help to minimize and streamline reporting while simultaneously addressing updated federal requirements. Per DOE, each SSP report should provide an overview of the site’s planned actions, as well as an overview of efforts and accomplishments during the reporting period. SPD collects and compiles information reported by each site to develop DOE’s Annual Sustainability Report, Climate Adaptation & Resilience Plan, and Annual Energy Management Report to Congress. The agency goal has been to lower the reporting burden for sites and increase and improve the consistency of information available to decision makers, allowing them to better identify projects and potential for increased efficiency, as well as to reduce waste, lower emissions, and enhance operational resilience. Sites may elect to produce a more polished publication for their leadership and stakeholders, but this step is no longer required. The ORNL SSP narrative report (this document) and the reporting of DOE SPD Sustainability Dashboard performance data is a collaborative effort of approximately 30 subject matter experts (SMEs) from ORNL facility management and research divisions. Annually, these associates come together to provide a report that can be used by DOE to demonstrate continued agency progress in energy efficiency and sustainable federal operations.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Autonomous Aerial Power Plant Inspection in GPS-denied Environments

Inspection of coal-fired power plants is frequently dangerous, includes difficult places to reach, and can turn expensive due to the downtimes and cost of inspection crew. Robotic systems have shown capabilities to address some of these issues, but most of the current robotic inspection technology in power plants is designed for specific components. Conversely, recent advances in machine vision have empowered aerial platforms for long-range, remotely-controlled, GPS-based inspections of industrial plants. This capability has led to wide spread utilization of aerial robots (commonly termed Drones, UVS or UAS) platforms for inspection in less challenging environments where both collision avoidance, and GPS reception are not significant issues. The challenge in adapting airborne technology for power plant inspection lies in internal structures and the complex network of piping, and distribution systems, which impose significant risks for collision and can hinder the reception and transmission of GPS signals. The current state of the art in aerial inspection technology within the energy sector is controlled via radio control, and utilizes GPS-based navigation, for inspection of large-scale plants such as offshore platforms and wind turbine parks. Nevertheless, close-range and autonomous inspection in the GPS-denied environments of power plants has not yet been achieved, as it requires precise guidance and navigation with real-time situational awareness and obstacle avoidance capabilities. This endeavor introduced the use of rotary wing flying robots, due to their station keeping and vertical take-off capabilities for power plant components inspection. To enable close quarter inspection two methods were used. One method uses the 3D CAD (Three-dimensional Computer-Aided Design) model of the asset to inspect to generate the UAV’s inspection path. To acquire, analyze and process the 3D model, first, the STL file is produced to obtain surface points and vectors normal to the surface. Later, by introducing other variables such as wall offset and a controlled trajectory between each outline and each subsequent layer, the flight path is generated. The proposed framework will generate a path that will pass as close as desired from the surface and navigate in intricate environments. A second method, use advanced manufacturing techniques such as CNC (Computer Numerical Control) and additive manufacturing. Once the inspection flight path is obtained, vision-based navigation systems are employed to have the UAV autonomously tracking the provided trajectory. Finally, Artificial Intelligence-enabled developments are in charge of detecting cracks and corrosion in structural components of power plants. The proposed methods are validated in simulations, laboratory and industrial setups, where it is shown that the developed systems acting together enable close-quarter autonomous aerial inspection and mapping in power plant assets. The system can be further improved by adding more sensors to navigate in different GPS-denied environments, with non-homogeneous lighting conditions, dust and in general situations where vision-based systems may fail.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2022

Sensing Electrical Networks Securely & Economically (SENSE)

The growing adoption of distributed energy resources (DERs) like battery energy storage systems and roof top solar/PV and the rapid penetration of electric vehicles (EVs), the electric grid is undergoing a major transformation with elevated stress on legacy grid assets. Despite a lot of expenditure to address these challenges, both in dollars and manpower, utilities have not been able to receive the value that was promised. The gains have been most visible at the transmission and substation level, especially where the main objective was improving operational and economic efficiency for the utility. Improving visibility and control at a few select points enhances the existing and established paradigm of centralized command and control. With changing load patterns, load types and the overall transition to an “active grid”, the centralized control and coordination paradigm gets challenged. To address the challenges, a new architecture and mechanism is needed, one that supports decentralized control and decision making, extracting value streams at the grid edge, particularly as the changes are fueled by transitions occurring in the distribution system. To address this, a communications and data processing platform, “GAMMA” was developed and demonstrated through the project. At the heart of the platform, are distributed, intelligent edge nodes with sensing and compute capabilities, that can record and analyze information locally. They are embedded in sensors and actuators specific to different distribution system applications. Phase 1 of the project focused on developing novel sensor technology that can be used for monitoring utility pole top distribution transformers. The sensors were designed with the objective of being low-cost, communicating with the GAMMA cloud using novel “delay-tolerant” networking using Bluetooth and a secure mobile application. They were non-intrusive in nature so that they can be installed quickly in the field, resulting in overall low cost of deployment and operations. Following the successful completion of Phase 1, the team manufactured 100 units for a field demonstration in Phase 2. The field demonstration was carried out on two real feeder systems with the local utility partner. In total, 100 sensors were installed and operated over a period of 6 months in the state of Georgia. The platform is operational end to end, with the cloud infrastructure deployed on a distributed, serverless environment that can serve multiple data streams, an analytics engine and a portal to securely view the data from multiple assets. The data collected through the GAMMA Mobile Phone app showcased the viability of the novel delay tolerant networking architecture, and the data processing algorithms developed through the course of the project, were successful in extracting important information about the overall network, improving the utility’s visibility and situational awareness in the distribution feeder.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Comprehensive Economic Coal Transition in South Asia

Many countries are considering accelerating their coal transition. A coal transition refers to an energy sector’s shift from a reliance on coal toward an energy mix largely based on cleaner fuels and renewable energy sources. Such a transition is not just related to greenhouse gas emissions, but also encompasses a range of benefits, recognizing that global energy costs and options are changing. Since 2015, proposed new coal power capacity has dropped by three-quarters globally, leaving only a few countries that develop coal-fired power plants at scale (Littlecott et al., 2021). Historic steps were taken at the United Nations Climate Change 26th Conference of Parties (COP26) in Glasgow, as countries pledged to stop new coal builds, end international coal financing, phase down and phase out unabated coal use, and transition to clean energy. In South Asia, there have been several indicators suggesting that countries may be open to moving toward a coal transition. For example, the number of coal power plants under development across South Asia has decreased by 87% since 2015 (Littlecott et al., 2021). However, the challenges of assuring a just transition are substantial. Because coal plays a critical role in the energy and economic systems in South Asia, especially India, moving away from coal means realizing a broader country-wide economic and social transition. A comprehensive, integrated transition strategy for each state is thus needed urgently. This report briefly reviews the current trends and policies on coal in South Asian countries, develops a framework for a comprehensive economic coal transition, and assesses the opportunities and challenges of the transition in key countries. Several important findings emerge from the analysis. First, a coal transition can support overall economic growth and stability. Financial advantages to a well-planned coal transition include mitigating the risk of stranded assets and taking advantage of low-cost renewables. As a global coal transition proceeds, funds are being diverted from new unabated coal power plants, and utilization rates are declining. The likelihood that coal assets will become stranded is increasing, and the potential for future losses therefore increases as well. Second, coal imports in South Asia are rising. Of the coal consumed in Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Sri Lanka, 32% is imported; this number increases to 94% when excluding India (International Energy Agency [IEA], 2021d). This illustrates a serious energy security risk. One example is the recent increase in coal prices in South Asia, to be discussed in Section 2.2.1. A diverse energy portfolio that incorporates local renewable energy can provide resilience in the face of changing commodity prices and availability. Third, the social benefits of a coal transition include positive health impacts and broader economic improvements in job creation, although assuring a just transition may be a challenge. Phasing out or phasing down coal can significantly reduce air pollutant emissions and therefore minimize associated premature mortality and improve life expectancy. Additional societal benefits of a coal transition include the high economy-wide potential for job creation, although it creates challenges in terms of reintegration and resettlement for coal miners and their communities.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗