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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2020

Ellicott City Disasters III: Building a Real-Time Statistical Flood Model for Improving Early Warning Systems in Ellicott City, Maryland

As flood events in the United States grow in frequency and intensity, the uses of applied remote sensing analyses are increasingly necessary for effective flood monitoring and warning systems. The NASA DEVELOP Ellicott City Disasters III project investigated the use of machine learning for applications in flood risk detection to support the improvement of early warning systems in Ellicott City, Maryland. To strengthen the efforts of the Howard County Office of Emergency Management (OEM) in building a more robust flood monitoring system, this term built on the predictive capability of the long-short term memory (LSTM) model created by the second term of this DEVELOP project to create a Sequentially Trained Real-time EstimAted Model (STREAM). Enhancements to the model included the integration of both real-time and predicted weather products from the National Weather Service to increase predictive capacity. These weather products were supplemented by stream gauge data from the OEM as well as real-time radar products. The resultant flood risk model was trained to evaluate input variables and predict stage height in Ellicott City in real time. The model, upgraded to predict stage height up to 8 hours in advance, was incorporated into an online dashboard in a user-friendly interface. The project demonstrated the potential for integration of open data and NASA Earth observations into a flood risk forecasting tool capable of informing real-time decision-making.

Erika Munshi↗
NASA NTRS2021

Nonlinear Navigation Analysis for a Europa Lander Mission Concept

Navigation strategies typically use linearized techniques to predict maneuver statistics. This method has been successfully employed on numerous high-energy trajectories, but may not be valid for low-energy ones due to the highly non-linear environment. We explore nonlinear navigational techniques applied to a Europa Lander concept by assessing trajectory sensitivity. The linearity assumption is tested at different phases of the endgame trajectory. Maneuver strategies and placement are considered to improve the delivery to Europa. Several cases of non-linear statistical maneuver Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to optimize maneuvers and compare ∆V statistics against conventional linear simulations.

Hernandez, Sonia↗
NASA NTRS1973

A constrained discrete optimal guidance strategy for low-thrust space flight

A low-thrust guidance algorithm suitable for operational use is formulated. Using linear stochastic control theory, a linear feedback control law is obtained for a minimum terminal miss performance criterion. The control variables are restricted to constant values over specified time intervals and are explicitly limited. Both fixed and variable time-of-arrival guidance are considered. Guidance equations are presented in deterministic (operational) and in statistical form; and computational procedures necessary for implementation are outlined. The performance of the guidance algorithm is evaluated by applying it to the approach phase of the 1980 rendezvous mission with the comet Encke.

Jacobson, R. A.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Strong scintillations in astrophysics. I - The Markov approximation, its validity and application to angular broadening

The Markov approximation to the propagation of waves in an extended, irregular medium is discussed in an astrophysical context. A new derivation is presented which is simple and which shows that the assumption of Gaussian statistics used by previous authors is irrelevant. We discuss the relevance of the approximation and show that it may apply in many situations of interest, including interstellar scintillations of pulsar signals. The approximation does not require the assumption of weak scattering or Gaussian correlation functions. The Markov equation for the angular spectrum is particularly simple, and solutions are discussed for typical turbulence spectra. It is found that the equation for the angular spectrum is very nearly that used by previous authors, and the present discussion shows that these results are much more general than previously thought. A possible observational test for distinguishing between Gaussian and power-law interstellar density spectra is discussed.

Lee, L. C.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Thematic mapper data quality and performance assessment in renewable resource/agricultural remote sensing

A "quick look" investigation of the initial LANDSAT-4, thematic mapper (TM) scene received from Goddard Space Flight Center was performed to gain early insight into the characteristics of TM data. The initial scene, containing only the first four bands of the seven bands recorded by the TM, was acquired over the Detroit, Michigan, area on July 20, 1982. It yielded abundant information for scientific investigation. A wide variety of studies were conducted to assess all aspects of TM data. They ranged from manual analyses of image products to detect obvious optical, electronic, or mechanical defects to detailed machine analyses of the digital data content for evaluation of spectral separability of vegetative/nonvegetative classes. These studies were applied to several segments extracted from the full scene. No attempt was made to perform end-to-end statistical evaluations. However, the output of these studies do identify a degree of positive performance from the TM and its potential for advancing state-of-the-art crop inventory and condition assessment technology.

Erickson, J. D.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Texture classification using autoregressive filtering

A general theory of image texture models is proposed and its applicability to the problem of scene segmentation using texture classification is discussed. An algorithm, based on half-plane autoregressive filtering, which optimally utilizes second order statistics to discriminate between texture classes represented by arbitrary wide sense stationary random fields is described. Empirical results of applying this algorithm to natural and sysnthesized scenes are presented and future research is outlined.

Lawton, W. M.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Context dependent anti-aliasing image reconstruction

Image Reconstruction has been mostly confined to context free linear processes; the traditional continuum interpretation of digital array data uses a linear interpolator with or without an enhancement filter. Here, anti-aliasing context dependent interpretation techniques are investigated for image reconstruction. Pattern classification is applied to each neighborhood to assign it a context class; a different interpolation/filter is applied to neighborhoods of differing context. It is shown how the context dependent interpolation is computed through ensemble average statistics using high resolution training imagery from which the lower resolution image array data is obtained (simulation). A quadratic least squares (LS) context-free image quality model is described from which the context dependent interpolation coefficients are derived. It is shown how ensembles of high-resolution images can be used to capture the a priori special character of different context classes. As a consequence, a priori information such as the translational invariance of edges along the edge direction, edge discontinuity, and the character of corners is captured and can be used to interpret image array data with greater spatial resolution than would be expected by the Nyquist limit. A Gibb-like artifact associated with this super-resolution is discussed. More realistic context dependent image quality models are needed and a suggestion is made for using a quality model which now is finding application in data compression.

Beaudet, Paul R.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Validation of the AMSU-B Bias Corrections Based on Satellite Measurements from SSM/T-2

The NOAA-15 Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-B (AMSU-B) was designed in the same spirit as the Special Sensor Microwave Water Vapor Profiler (SSM/T-2) on board the DMSP F11-14 satellites, to perform remote sensing of spatial and temporal variations in mid and upper troposphere humidity. While the SSM/T-2 instruments have a 48 km spatial resolution at nadir and 28 beam positions per scan, AMSU-B provides an improvement with a 16 km spatial resolution at nadir and 90 beam positions per scan. The AMSU-B instrument, though, has been experiencing radio frequency interference (RFI) contamination from the NOAA-15 transmitters whose effect is dependent upon channel, geographic location, and current spacecraft antenna configuration. This has lead to large cross-track biases reaching as high as 100 Kelvin for channel 17 (150 GHz) and 50 Kelvin for channel 19 (183 +/-3 GHz). NOAA-NESDIS has recently provided a series of bias corrections for AMSU-B data starting from March, 1999. These corrections are available for each of the five channels, for every third field of view, and for three cycles within an eight second period. There is also a quality indicator in each data record to indicate whether or not the bias corrections should be applied. As a precursor to performing retrievals of mid and upper troposphere humidity, a validation study is performed by statistically analyzing the differences between the F14 SSM/T-2 and the bias corrected AMSU-B brightness temperatures for three months in the spring of 1999.

Kolodner, Marc A.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Discontinuous Galerkin Methods for Turbulence Simulation

A discontinuous Galerkin (DG) method is formulated, implemented, and tested for simulation of compressible turbulent flows. The method is applied to turbulent channel flow at low Reynolds number, where it is found to successfully predict low-order statistics with fewer degrees of freedom than traditional numerical methods. This reduction is achieved by utilizing local hp-refinement such that the computational grid is refined simultaneously in all three spatial coordinates with decreasing distance from the wall. Another advantage of DG is that Dirichlet boundary conditions can be enforced weakly through integrals of the numerical fluxes. Both for a model advection-diffusion problem and for turbulent channel flow, weak enforcement of wall boundaries is found to improve results at low resolution. Such weak boundary conditions may play a pivotal role in wall modeling for large-eddy simulation.

Collis, S. Scott↗
NASA NTRS2003

Transmission measurement based on STM observation to detect the penetration depth of low-energy heavy ions in botanic samples

The penetration depth of low-energy heavy ions in botanic samples was detected with a new transmission measurement. In the measurement, highly oriented pyrolytic graphite (HOPG) pieces were placed behind the botanic samples with certain thickness. During the irradiation of heavy ions with energy of tens of keV, the energetic particles transmitted from those samples were received by the HOPG pieces. After irradiation, scanning tunneling microscope (STM) was applied to observe protrusion-like damage induced by these transmitted ions on the surface of the HOPG. The statistical average number density of protrusions and the minimum transmission rate of the low-energy heavy ions can be obtained. The detection efficiency of the new method for low-energy heavy ions was about 0.1-1 and the background in the measurement can be reduced to as low as 1.0 x 10(8) protrusions/cm2. With this method, the penetration depth of the energetic particles was detected to be no less than 60 micrometers in kidney bean slices when the slices were irradiated by 100 keVAr+ ion at the fluence of 5 x 10(16) ions/cm2. c2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

DNA Damage↗
NASA NTRS2017

Trajectory Design for a Single-String Impactor Concept

This paper introduces a trajectory design for a secondary spacecraft concept to augment science return in interplanetary missions. The concept consist of a single-string probe with a kinetic impactor on board that generates an artificial plume to perform in-situ sampling. The trajectory design was applied to a particular case study that samples ejecta particles from the Jovian moon Europa. Results were validated using statistical analysis. Details regarding the navigation, targeting and disposal challenges related to this concept are presented herein.

Monte Carlo↗
NASA NTRS2016

Thermodynamic Spectrum of Solar Flares Based on SDO/EVE Observations: Techniques and First Results

The Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/EUV Variability Experiment (EVE) provides rich information on the thermodynamic processes of solar activities, particularly on solar flares. Here, we develop a method to construct thermodynamic spectrum (TDS) charts based on the EVE spectral lines. This tool could potentially be useful for extreme ultraviolet (EUV) astronomy to learn about the eruptive activities on distant astronomical objects. Through several cases, we illustrate what we can learn from the TDS charts. Furthermore, we apply the TDS method to 74 flares equal to or greater than the M5.0 class, and reach the following statistical results. First, EUV peaks are always behind the soft X-ray (SXR) peaks and stronger flares tend to have faster cooling rates. There is a power-law correlation between the peak delay times and the cooling rates, suggesting a coherent cooling process of flares from SXR to EUV emissions. Second, there are two distinct temperature drift patterns, called Type I and Type II. For Type I flares, the enhanced emission drifts from high to low temperature like a quadrilateral, whereas for Type II flares the drift pattern looks like a triangle. Statistical analysis suggests that Type II flares are more impulsive than Type I flares. Third, for late-phase flares, the peak intensity ratio of the late phase to the main phase is roughly correlated with the flare class, and the flares with a strong late phase are all confined. We believe that the re-deposition of the energy carried by a flux rope, which unsuccessfully erupts out, into thermal emissions is responsible for the strong late phase found in a confined flare. Furthermore, we show the signatures of the flare thermodynamic process in the chromosphere and transition region in the TDS charts. These results provide new clues to advance our understanding of the thermodynamic processes of solar flares and associated solar eruptions, e.g., coronal mass ejections.

Wang, Yuming↗
NASA NTRS2018

Examining Dense Data Usage near the Regions with Severe Storms in All-Sky Microwave Radiance Data Assimilation and Impacts on GEOS Hurricane Analyses

Many numerical weather prediction (NWP) centers assimilate radiances affected by clouds and precipitation from microwave sensors, with the expectation that these data can provide critical constraints on meteorological parameters in dynamically sensitive regions to make significant impacts on forecast accuracy for precipitation. The Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center assimilates all-sky microwave radiance data from various microwave sensors such as all-sky GPM Microwave Imager (GMI) radiance in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) atmospheric data assimilation system (ADAS), which includes the GEOS atmospheric model, the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) atmospheric analysis system, and the Goddard Aerosol Assimilation System (GAAS). So far, most of NWP centers apply same large data thinning distances, that are used in clear-sky radiance data to avoid correlated observation errors, to all-sky microwave radiance data. For example, NASA GMAO is applying 145 km thinning distances for most of satellite radiance data including microwave radiance data in which all-sky approach is implemented. Even with these coarse observation data usage in all-sky assimilation approach, noticeable positive impacts from all-sky microwave data on hurricane track forecasts were identified in GEOS-5 system. The motivation of this study is based on the dynamic thinning distance method developed in our all-sky framework to use of denser data in cloudy and precipitating regions due to relatively small spatial correlations of observation errors. To investigate the benefits of all-sky microwave radiance on hurricane forecasts, several hurricane cases selected between 2016-2017 are examined. The dynamic thinning distance method is utilized in our all-sky approach to understand the sources and mechanisms to explain the benefits of all-sky microwave radiance data from various microwave radiance sensors like Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit (AMSU-A), Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS), and GMI on GEOS-5 analyses and forecasts of various hurricanes.

Kim, Min-Jeong↗
NASA NTRS2012

Multiscale Studies of the Three-Dimensional Dayside X-Line

We review recent experience from the Cluster, Double Star, and THEMIS missions for lessons that apply to the upcoming Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission (MMS) being developed for launch in 2014. On global scales, simulation and statistical studies lead to mean congurations of dayside reconnection, implying specific relative alignments of the inflow magnetic fields and X-line, with implications for MMS operations designed to maximize the number of close encounters with the diffusion region. At intermediate MHD-to-ion scales, reconstruction of features created by one or two X-lines have developed to the point where data from a cluster of spacecraft can determine their temporal trends and the approximate three-dimensional X-line structure. Recent petascale particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations of reconnection encompass three spatial dimensions with excellent resolution, and make striking predictions of electron scale physics that creates complex interacting flux ropes under component reconnection. High time resolution measurements from MMS will determine the detailed electron scale kinetics embedded within the global and MHDion scale contexts. These developments will lead to the refinement of our three-dimensional multiscale picture of reconnection, yielding improved understanding of the global, MHD, and local physics controlling the onset or quenching, variability, and mean rate of reconnection. This in turn will enable improved predictability of the structural features created by transient reconnection, and their space weather consequences.

Reconnection↗
NASA NTRS1977

A statistical method for time-continuous assimilation of remote sounding temperatures

A time-continuous statistical method is presented for the four-dimensional assimilation of remote sounding temperatures based on radiometric measurements from polar-orbiting satellites. This method is applied to DST-6 data from the NOAA-4 and Nimbus-6 satellites. Experiments are reported in which the state of the atmosphere throughout the test period was determined using a varying amount of satellite data and in which different methods were used for their assimilation. Data from the NOAA-4 satellite only, from Nimbus-6 only, and from both satellites together were used; the methods tested include different variations of the statistical method as well as more traditional methods. The conclusions are that: (1) satellite-derived temperature data can have a modest, but statistically significant positive impact on numerical weather prediction in the two-to-three day range; (2) this impact is highly sensitive to the quantity of data available; and (3) the assimilation method plays a major role in the magnitude of the impact for the same data.

Ghil, M.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Effective techniques for the identification and accommodation of disturbances

The successful control of dynamic systems such as space stations, or launch vehicles, requires a controller design methodology that acknowledges and addresses the disruptive effects caused by external and internal disturbances that inevitably act on such systems. These disturbances, technically defined as uncontrollable inputs, typically vary with time in an uncertain manner and usually cannot be directly measured in real time. A relatively new non-statistical technique for modeling, and (on-line) identification, of those complex uncertain disturbances that are not as erratic and capricious as random noise is described. This technique applies to multi-input cases and to many of the practical disturbances associated with the control of space stations, or launch vehicles. Then, a collection of smart controller design techniques that allow controlled dynamic systems, with possible multi-input controls, to accommodate (cope with) such disturbances with extraordinary effectiveness are associated. These new smart controllers are designed by non-statistical techniques and typically turn out to be unconventional forms of dynamic linear controllers (compensators) with constant coefficients. The simplicity and reliability of linear, constant coefficient controllers is well-known in the aerospace field.

Johnson, C. D.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Interpolating Fields of Carbon Monoxide Data Using a Hybrid Statistical-Physical Model

Atmospheric Carbon Monoxide (CO) is a pollutant gas of which the US congress has mandated regular monitoring, and satellite sensors can be used to retrieve regional concentrations of CO over several vertical layers. However, CO at cloudy locations cannot be observed and have to be estimated from the observed data set, resulting in an interpolation problem. The current state-of-the-art solution is to combine prior information, computed by a deterministic physical model, with observations. However, the deterministic model may introduce uncertainties that do not derive from the data. While sharing certain features with the physical model, this paper presents a Bayesian hierarchical model for interpolating CO on a 3-dimensional spatial grid, across time. To our knowledge such a model has not been considered before. The model is applied to a hypothetical air-quality monitoring scenario, and is compared to existing interpolation methods. The results provide motivation for the use of the statistical model for regional to local applications.

Arellano, A. A.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Statistics of primordial density perturbations from discrete seed masses

The statistics of density perturbations for general distributions of seed masses with arbitrary matter accretion is examined. Formal expressions for the power spectrum, the N-point correlation functions, and the density distribution function are derived. These results are applied to the case of uncorrelated seed masses, and power spectra are derived for accretion of both hot and cold dark matter plus baryons. The reduced moments (cumulants) of the density distribution are computed and used to obtain a series expansion for the density distribution function. Analytic results are obtained for the density distribution function in the case of a distribution of seed masses with a spherical top-hat accretion pattern. More generally, the formalism makes it possible to give a complete characterization of the statistical properties of any random field generated from a discrete linear superposition of kernels. In particular, the results can be applied to density fields derived by smoothing a discrete set of points with a window function.

Scherrer, Robert J.↗