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Inferring pesticide toxicity to honey bees from a field‐based feeding study using a colony model and Bayesian inference
Abstract Honey bees are crucial pollinators for agricultural crops but are threatened by a multitude of stressors including exposure to pesticides. Linking our understanding of how pesticides affect individual bees to colony‐level responses is challenging because colonies show emergent properties based on complex internal processes and interactions among individual bees. Agent‐based models that simulate honey bee colony dynamics may be a tool for scaling between individual and colony effects of a pesticide. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) and U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) are developing the VarroaPop + Pesticide model, which simulates the dynamics of honey bee colonies and how they respond to multiple stressors, including weather, Varroa mites, and pesticides. To evaluate this model, we used Approximate Bayesian Computation to fit field data from an empirical study where honey bee colonies were fed the insecticide clothianidin. This allowed us to reproduce colony feeding study data by simulating colony demography and mortality from ingestion of contaminated food. We found that VarroaPop + Pesticide was able to fit general trends in colony population size and structure and reproduce colony declines from increasing clothianidin exposure. The model underestimated adverse effects at low exposure (36 µg/kg), however, and overestimated recovery at the highest exposure level (140 µg/kg), for the adult and pupa endpoints, suggesting that mechanisms besides oral toxicity‐induced mortality may have played a role in colony declines. The VarroaPop + Pesticide model estimates an adult oral LD 50 of 18.9 ng/bee (95% CI 10.1–32.6) based on the simulated feeding study data, which falls just above the 95% confidence intervals of values observed in laboratory toxicology studies on individual bees. Overall, our results demonstrate a novel method for analyzing colony‐level data on pesticide effects on bees and making inferences on pesticide toxicity to individual bees.
MontePy: a Python library for reading, editing, and writing MCNP input files.
The Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) radiation transport code is a highly capable and accurate code with a long legacy. MCNP uses the Monte Carlo simulation process to simulate the path of particles (e.g., neutrons, photons, charged particles, etc.), and their interaction with materials. It is widely used in nuclear engineering, high-energy physics, and other fields. Its origins in the mid-twentieth century predate many modern software conventions. MCNP users provide an input file to MCNP, which it then uses to create an internal representation of the simulation problem. These input files originally had to be stored as punchcard decks, and the user manual still uses the terminology of cards and decks, despite moving beyond punchcards. MCNP predates nearly all modern human readable markup or data serialization languages, such as the extensible Markup Language (XML), the Standard Generalized Markup Language (SGML), YAML (YAML Ain’t Markup Language), and Javascript Object Notation (JSON). Due to this, MCNP uses an entirely custom defined syntax language for its input, making off-the-shelf libraries for XML, YAML, and JSON impossible to use for scripting various operations on MCNP input files (Kulesza et al., 2022).
AMPX and SAMMY Status Report [Slides]
Abstract not provided.
Implement Intel Level Zero (ZE) component for Open MPI Accelerator framework [Poster]
Abstract not provided.
Evaluate Distributed Energy Technologies for Cost Savings and Resilience With REopt Lite
NREL's REopt Lite TM web tool evaluates the economics of grid connected photovoltaics (PV), wind, and battery storage at a site. It allows users to identify the system sizes and battery dispatch strategy that minimize a site's life cycle cost of energy, and it estimates the amount of time a PV, wind, battery, and diesel generator system can sustain the site's critical load during a grid outage.
2022 GETEM Geothermal Drilling Cost Curve Update: Preprint
The Geothermal Electricity Technology Evaluation Model (GETEM) is an essential tool for the Department of Energy's (DOE) Geothermal Technology Office (GTO) to understand the performance and cost of technologies it is seeking to improve. This detailed model is used for supply curve analyses, assessing the current economic feasibility and Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) of hydrothermal geothermal systems and EGS, and evaluating the potential impact of advanced geothermal technologies. GETEM can be used to estimate the performance and costs of currently available U.S. geothermal power systems. It is also used to estimate the costs of technologies 5 to 20 years in the future, given the direction of potential research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) projects. The model is intended to help GTO determine which proposed RD&D programs and projects might offer the most efficient improvement when using taxpayer funding. The model requires annual updates as well as revisions to reflect the current state of the art. Drilling costs are a significant portion of total geothermal development costs. The current GETEM drilling cost inputs rely on drilling data from 2009 and require an updated analysis of more recent data to ensure they remain representative of current technologies. An updated, more accurate understanding of costs could help the geothermal industry secure project development financing and investment funding and better allow the oil and gas (O&G) industry (both operators and service companies) weigh potential geothermal market participation and customization. This report details recent drilling improvements from the Utah Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy (FORGE) and O&G, comparing drilling performance and costs with values in GETEM, particularly the baseline drilling cost curves. Though drilling performance at FORGE has improved significantly, we did not find associated cost decreases that would justify lowering the GETEM baseline cost curves as of now.
2022 GETEM Geothermal Drilling Cost Curve Update
The Geothermal Electricity Technology Evaluation Model (GETEM) is an essential tool for the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) to understand the performance and cost of technologies it is seeking to improve. This detailed model is used for supply curve analyses, assessing the current economic feasibility and levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of hydrothermal geothermal systems and enhanced geothermal systems (EGS), and evaluating the potential impact of advanced geothermal technologies. GETEM can be used to estimate the performance and costs of currently available U.S. geothermal power systems. It is also used to estimate the costs of technologies 5 to 20 years in the future, given the direction of potential research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) projects. The model is intended to help GTO determine which proposed RD&D programs and projects might offer the most efficient improvement when using taxpayer funding. The model requires annual updates as well as revisions to reflect the current state of the art. Drilling costs are a significant portion of total geothermal development costs. The current GETEM drilling cost inputs rely on drilling data from 2009 and require an updated analysis of more recent data to ensure they remain representative of current technologies. An updated, more accurate understanding of costs could help the geothermal industry secure project development financing and investment funding and better allow the oil and gas (O&G) industry (both operators and service companies) to weigh potential geothermal market participation and customization. This report details recent drilling improvements from the Utah Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy (FORGE) and the O&G sector, comparing drilling performance and costs with values in GETEM, particularly the baseline drilling cost curves. Although drilling performance at FORGE has improved significantly, we did not find associated cost decreases that would justify lowering the GETEM baseline cost curves at this time.
Intrinsic Bonding and Reactivity of Actinide Clusters Poster
The effect of electronic structure on chemical bonding and reactivity is one of the most important questions in the field of chemistry. Insight into chemical bond formation involving elements that contain f electrons (i.e., the lanthanides and actinides) is critical for solving specific technical challenges, such as development of advanced nuclear fuel cycles and efficient rare earth separations, as well as a broader understanding of bonding across the entire periodic table. The primary technique for studying the fundamentals of lanthanide and actinide bonding is crystallization of metal-ligand compounds followed by structural determination with X-rays and comparison to theory with computational chemistry. While this procedure has yielded significant insights for a wide variety of elements, it is challenging to apply to the heavier trans-uranic actinides such as berkelium and californium because of limited material availability, significant radioactivity, and poorly understood chemical reactivity of these elements. We hypothesize that by forming actinide-ligand clusters in a mass spectrometer and probing their reactivity in the gas-phase, many of the challenges associated with studying the heavier trans-uranic elements can be circumvented. This project will develop a capability to address a wide range of actinide bonding and reactivity phenomena, increasing Idaho National Laboratory’s capability to address fundamental questions at the forefront of heavy element chemical and molecular science.