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At least 559 records · Page 31
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

The age and potential causes of the giant Green Lake Landslide, Fiordland, New Zealand

Abstract Landslide deposits preserved in the geological record afford opportunities to better inform hillslope and seismic hazard and risk models, particularly in regions where observational records are short. In the Southern Alps of New Zealand, small coseismic landslides are frequent, but the geological record preserves several instances of more substantial (> 1 km 3 ) but infrequent mass failures. With an estimated volume of 27 km 3 , the giant Green Lake Landslide represents one of the largest subaerial landslides on Earth. Previous work has suggested this deep-seated mass movement was most likely triggered by high-intensity seismic shaking, but that local structural weakness and/or glacial debuttressing may help to explain the anomalously large failure volume. Resolving the potential contribution of the latter is important given predictions concerning alpine deglaciation in the coming decades to centuries. Key to resolution are secure chronologies of landslide emplacement and past glacier change. Here we present in situ cosmogenic 10 Be exposure ages from the Green Lake Landslide that suggest an emplacement age of 15.5 ± 0.7 ka. Recent work shows that glacial retreat in the region was underway by 19 ka, indicating that the Green Lake Landslide was emplaced 3–4 kyr after the onset of glacier retreat. Given the geometry of the former confining valley glacier, we expect that the deglaciation-landslide age gap is closer to the upper end of this estimate. If correct, this conclusion places greater weight on the roles of local geological structure and/or a great earthquake as factors contributing to the exceptionally large volume of this event.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1993

STS-55 pad abort: Engine 2011 oxidizer preburner augmented spark igniter check valve leak

The STS-55 initial launch attempt of Columbia (OV102) was terminated on KSC launch pad A March 22, 1993 at 9:51 AM E.S.T. due to violation of an ME-3 (Engine 2011) Launch Commit Criteria (LCC) limit exceedance. The event description and timeline are summarized. Propellant loading was initiated on 22 March, 1993 at 1:15 AM EST. All SSME chill parameters and launch commit criteria (LCC) were nominal. At engine start plus 1.44 seconds, a Failure Identification (FID) was posted against Engine 2011 for exceeding the 50 psia Oxidizer Preburner (OPB) purge pressure redline. The engine was shut down at 1.50 seconds followed by Engines 2034 and 2030. All shut down sequences were nominal and the mission was safely aborted. The OPB purge pressure redline violation and the abort profile/overlay for all three engines are depicted. SSME Avionics hardware and software performed nominally during the incident. A review of vehicle data table (VDT) data and controller software logic revealed no failure indications other than the single FID 013-414, OPB purge pressure redline exceeded. Software logic was executed according to requirements and there was no anomalous controller software operation. Immediately following the abort, a Rocketdyne/NASA failure investigation team was assembled. The team successfully isolated the failure cause to the oxidizer preburner augmented spark igniter purge check valve not being fully closed due to contamination. The source of the contaminant was traced to a cut segment from a rubber O-ring which was used in a fine clean tool during valve production prior to 1992. The valve was apparently contaminated during its fabrication in 1985. The valve had performed acceptably on four previous flights of the engine, and SSME flight history shows 780 combined check valve flights without failure. The failure of an Engine 3 (SSME No. 2011) check valve to close was sensed by onboard engine instruments even though all other engine operations were normal. This resulted in an engine shutdown and safe sequential shutdown of all three engines prior to ignition of the solid boosters.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2023

Record-breaking 2020 summer marine heatwaves in the western North Pacific

Record-breaking marine heatwaves (MHWs) occurred in the western North Pacific during the summer of 2020. These unprecedented MHWs were consistent with favorable large-scale conditions that are linked to an anomalous western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH), resulting mainly from sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies across the tropical oceans. In addition, a moderate La Niña-like pattern was also conducive to transporting warm seawater to the western North Pacific. Mixed-layer heat budgets suggest that surface heat flux contributed to the SST anomaly in the western subtropical Pacific. In contrast, oceanic heat advection dominanted in the South China Sea and the western equatorial Pacific. Numerical model experiments indicated that the tropical Indian Ocean SST anomalies were responsible for the enhanced WNPSH. The increased zonal SST gradient across the tropical Pacific also played an important role. Inter-ocean interactions can modulate climate variability through ocean-atmospheric coupling and deserve more attention when predicting MHWs within the context of global warming. Additionally, it is critical to consider MHWs as a powerful tool in detecting acute, intense thermal stress events in the coral bleaching pre-warning system.

Coral bleaching↗
NASA NTRS2015

Charge Analyzer Responsive Local Oscillations

The first transatlantic radio transmission, demonstrated by Marconi in December of 1901, revealed the essential role of the ionosphere for radio communications. This ionized layer of the upper atmosphere controls the amount of radio power transmitted through, reflected off of, and absorbed by the atmospheric medium. Low-frequency radio signals can propagate long distances around the globe via repeated reflections off of the ionosphere and the Earth's surface. Higher frequency radio signals can punch through the ionosphere to be received at orbiting satellites. However, any turbulence in the ionosphere can distort these signals, compromising the performance or even availability of space-based communication and navigations systems. The physics associated with this distortion effect is analogous to the situation when underwater images are distorted by convecting air bubbles. In fact, these ionospheric features are often called 'plasma bubbles' since they exhibit some of the similar behavior as underwater air bubbles. These events, instigated by solar and geomagnetic storms, can cause communication and navigation outages that last for hours. To help understand and predict these outages, a world-wide community of space scientists and technologists are devoted to researching this topic. One aspect of this research is to develop instruments capable of measuring the ionospheric plasma bubbles. Figure 1 shows a photo of the Charge Analyzer Responsive to Local Oscillations (CARLO), a new instrument under development at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). It is a frequency-domain ion spectrum analyzer designed to measure the distributions of ionospheric turbulence from 1 Hz to 10 kHz (i.e., spatial scales from a few kilometers down to a few centimeters). This frequency range is important since it focuses on turbulence scales that affect VHF/UHF satellite communications, GPS systems, and over-the-horizon radar systems. CARLO is based on the flight-proven Plasma Local Anomalous Noise Environment (PLANE) instrument, previously flown on a U.S. Air Force low-Earth orbiting satellite, which successfully measured ion turbulence in five frequency decades from 0.1 Hz to 10 kHz (fig 2).

Krause, Linda Habash↗
NASA NTRS1991

Theoretical studies of the extraterrestrial chemistry of biogenic elements and compounds

Organic compounds, molecules related to those in living systems, are found in many different extraterrestrial environments. The study of organic astrochemistry is important to exobiology both because it demonstrates the ubiquity of processes which led to life on Earth and because the dust clouds where molecules are found are analogs of the solar nebula from which the Earth formed. In the long chain of events leading from the Big Bang, and a universe composed of atomic hydrogen and helium, to the emergence of life on Earth, molecular interstellar clouds are an early link, the most primitive objects which display any significant organic chemistry. One such cloud was the direct precursor to the solar system and to all objects which it contains. Theoretical methods are ideally suited to studying interstellar cloud chemistry. They have been applied to determine spectroscopic constants of candidate interstellar molecules, mechanisms of ion-molecule reactions, and composition of dust grains. Accurate predictions of rotational constants and dipole moments of long-chain carbon molecules HC13N, HC15N, and C5O have been made to aid in determining the size limit of gas-phase interstellar molecules. Models of gas-phase interstellar chemistry use reaction rate constants measured at room temperature and extrapolated to interstellar temperatures. The temperature dependence of NH3(+)+H2 yields NH4(+)+H is anomalous, however, with a minimum rate at about 100K, casting doubt on the extrapolation procedures. The temperature dependence has now been explained.

Defrees, D. J.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Long-wavelength Radar Studies of the Lunar Maria

Radar measurements at 70 cm and 7.5 m wavelengths provide insight into the structure and chemical properties of the upper 5-100 m of the lunar regolith and crust. Past work has identified a number of anomalous regions and changes in echo strength, some attributed to differences in titanium content. There has been little opportunity, however, to compare calibrated long-wavelength backscatter among different units or to theoretical model results. We combine recent high-resolution (3-5 km) 70-cm radar data for the nearside with earlier calibrated full-disk observations to provide a reasonable estimate of the true lunar backscatter coefficient. These data are tested against models for quasi-specular scattering from the surface, echoes from a buried substrate, and Mie scattering from surface and buried rocks. We find that 70 cm echoes likely arise from Mie scattering by distributed rocks within the soil, consistent with earlier hypotheses. Returns from a buried substrate would provide a plausible fit to the observations only if the regolith depth were ~3 m or less and varied little across the maria. Depolarized echoes are due to some combination of single and multiple scattering events, but it appears that single scattering alone could account for the observed echo power, based on comparisons with terrestrial rocky surfaces. Backscatter strength from the regolith is most strongly affected by the loss tangent, whose variation with mineral content is still poorly defined. We compared the backscatter values for the mare deposits to the oxide contents inferred from spectral ratio methods, and found that in general the unit boundaries evident in radar images closely follow those seen in color difference images. The 70-cm data are not well correlated with TiO2 values found using the Charette relationship nor with Fe abundances derived from Clementine observations. The lack of a relationship between radar echo and Fe content is reasonable given the distribution of iron among various mineral phases, but ilmenite content (FeTiO3) has typically been cited as the dominant cause of changes in loss tangent (and thus the radar absorption). The lack of correlation between the radar data and TiO2 estimates may arise from uncertainties in the Charette technique, subtle differences in the upper surface and bulk properties of the regolith, mineralogic effects on the radar not linked to titanium content, or to some combination of these factors. Dark crater haloes in the mare and highlands, and low radar returns from apparent cryptomare regions, are used to illustrate the role radar data can play in identifying changes in regolith composition; low-return haloes around craters such as Petavius may indicate 5-25% contamination of the highlands soil by excavated mare material or a layer of rock-poor ejecta at least several meters deep. The 7.5-m data were shown to correlate to a reasonable degree with estimates of Fe abundance, suggesting that this component of the mare basalts is primarily responsible for attenuation losses at very long wavelengths. The different sensitivities of the two radar wavelengths and multispectral data offers the potential for future deep mapping of the mare lava flows and regolith.

Lunar MariaRadarLunar Studies↗
NASA NTRS1995

Long-wavelength Radar Studies of the Lunar Maria

Radar measurements at 70 cm and 7.5 m wavelengths provide insight into the structure and chemical properties of the upper 5-100 m of the lunar regolith and crust. Past work has identified a number of anomalous regions and changes in echo strength, some attributed to differences in titanium content. There has been little opportunity, however, to compare calibrated long-wavelength backscatter among different units or to theoretical model results. We combine recent high-resolution (3-5 km) 70-cm radar data for the nearside with earlier calibrated full-disk observations to provide a reasonable estimate of the true lunar backscatter coefficient. These data are tested against models for quasi-specular scattering from the surface, echoes from a buried substrate, and Mie scattering from surface and buried rocks. We find that 70 cm echoes likely arise from Mie scattering by distributed rocks within the soil, consistent with earlier hypotheses. Returns from a buried substrate would provide a plausible fit to the observations only if the regolith depth were approx.3 m or less and varied little across the maria. Depolarized echoes are due to some combination of single and multiple scattering events, but it appears that single scattering alone could account for the observed echo power, based on comparisons with terrestrial rocky surfaces. Backscatter strength from the regolith is most strongly affected by the loss tangent, whose variation with mineral content is still poorly defined. We compared the backscatter values for the mare deposits to the oxide contents inferred from spectral ratio methods, and found that in general the unit boundaries evident in radar images closely follow those seen in color difference images. The 70-cm data are not well correlated with TiO2 values found using the Charette relationship nor with Fe abundances derived from Clementine observations. The lack of a relationship between radar echo and Fe content is reasonable given the distribution of iron among various mineral phases, but ilmenite content (FeTiO3) has typically been cited as the dominant cause of changes in loss tangent (and thus the radar absorption). The lack of correlation between the radar data and TiO2 estimates may arise from uncertainties in the Charette technique, subtle differences in the upper surface and bulk properties of the regolith, mineralogic effects on the radar not linked to titanium content, or to some combination of these factors. Dark crater haloes in the mare and highlands, and low radar returns from apparent cryptomare regions, are used to illustrate the role radar data can play in identifying changes in regolith composition; low-return haloes around craters such as Petavius may indicate 5-25% contamination of the highlands soil by excavated mare material or a layer of rock-poor ejecta at least several meters deep. The 7.5-m data were shown to correlate to a reasonable degree with estimates of Fe abundance, suggesting that this component of the mare basalts is primarily responsible for attenuation losses at very long wavelengths. The different sensitivities of the two radar wavelengths and multispectral data offers the potential for future deep mapping of the mare lava flows and regolith.

Lunar Studies↗
DOE OSTI2024

Anomaly Detection and Approximate Similarity Searches of Transients in Real-time Data Streams

Abstract We present Lightcurve Anomaly Identification and Similarity Search ( LAISS ), an automated pipeline to detect anomalous astrophysical transients in real-time data streams. We deploy our anomaly detection model on the nightly Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) Alert Stream via the ANTARES broker, identifying a manageable ∼1–5 candidates per night for expert vetting and coordinating follow-up observations. Our method leverages statistical light-curve and contextual host galaxy features within a random forest classifier, tagging transients of rare classes ( spectroscopic anomalies), of uncommon host galaxy environments ( contextual anomalies), and of peculiar or interaction-powered phenomena ( behavioral anomalies). Moreover, we demonstrate the power of a low-latency (∼ms) approximate similarity search method to find transient analogs with similar light-curve evolution and host galaxy environments. We use analogs for data-driven discovery, characterization, (re)classification, and imputation in retrospective and real-time searches. To date, we have identified ∼50 previously known and previously missed rare transients from real-time and retrospective searches, including but not limited to superluminous supernovae (SLSNe), tidal disruption events, SNe IIn, SNe IIb, SNe I-CSM, SNe Ia-91bg-like, SNe Ib, SNe Ic, SNe Ic-BL, and M31 novae. Lastly, we report the discovery of 325 total transients, all observed between 2018 and 2021 and absent from public catalogs (∼1% of all ZTF Astronomical Transient reports to the Transient Name Server through 2021). These methods enable a systematic approach to finding the “needle in the haystack” in large-volume data streams. Because of its integration with the ANTARES broker, LAISS is built to detect exciting transients in Rubin data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Meteorological characteristics of extreme ozone pollution events in China and their future predictions

Ozone (O 3 ) has become one of the most concerning air pollutants in China in recent decades. In this study, based on surface observations, reanalysis data, global atmospheric chemistry model simulations, and multi-model future predictions, meteorological characteristics conducive to extreme O 3 pollution in various regions of China are investigated, and their historical changes and future trends are analyzed. During the most severe O 3 polluted months, the chemical production of O 3 is enhanced under the hot and dry conditions over the North China Plain (NCP) in June 2018 and the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) in July 2017, while regional transport is the main reason for the severe O3 pollution over the Sichuan Basin (SCB) in July 2015 and the Pearl River Delta (PRD) in September 2019. Over the last 4 decades, the frequencies of high-temperature and low-relative-humidity conditions increased in 2000–2019 relative to 1980–1999, indicating that O 3 pollution in both the NCP and YRD has become more frequent under historical climate change. In the SCB and PRD, the occurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns similar to those during the most polluted months increased, together with the more frequent hot and dry conditions, contributing to the increases in severe O 3 pollution in the SCB and PRD during 1980–2019. In the future (by 2100), the frequencies of months with anomalous high temperature show stronger increasing trends in the high-forcing scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP5-8.5)) compared to the sustainable scenario (SSP1-2.6) in China. It suggests that high anthropogenic forcing will not only lead to slow economic growth and climate warming but also likely result in environmental pollution issues.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exploring Anomalous PM 2.5 from Wildfires and Dust Storms using Data and Services at NASA GES DISC

The presence of fine particles in the atmosphere with a diameter of less than 2.5 µm, called particulate matter 2.5 (PM 2.5 ), poses a significant threat to human health as a criteria air pollutant. Fortunately, NASA's Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) provides easy access to several PM 2.5 concentration products. These datasets include the reanalysis of global hourly and monthly aerosol components including PM 2.5 data from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), as well as 3-hourly real-time ensemble forecasts of PM 2.5 from the Hazardous Air Quality Ensemble System (HAQES). The HAQES products are developed by the George Mason University Air Quality Laboratory as part of NASA's Health Air Quality Applied Science Team (HAQAST). The GES DISC is actively collaborating with scientists in the HAQAST program to further expand air quality data collections. Two new datasets are currently being archived: one is the machine learning-based global hourly PM 2.5 derived from MERRA-2; the other is the localized data (NO 2 , O 3 , and PM 2.5 ) time series derived from NASA's GEOS Composition Forecasting (GEOS-CF) system. In this presentation, we will explore the spatial patterns and long-distance transport characteristics of elevated PM 2.5 during extreme pollution events, such as the June 2023 Canadian wildfires, which are still active at the time of writing; and severe spring dust storms in 2023 over Asia. To gain comprehensive insights, we will utilize various PM 2.5 data in conjunction with satellite-observed aerosol data from TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) on Sentinel-5P. The primary focus of this presentation will be to demonstrate effective use of data tools and services to visualize and explore extreme air pollution phenomena. Additionally, we will provide guidance on how users can download specific data of interest, facilitating further analysis and research in this critical area.

air quality↗
DOE OSTI2021

Search for CPT and Lorentz invariance violation in the muon $g -2$ experiment at Fermilab

The Muon g-2 experiment at Fermilab (E989) aims to measure the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon, $a_{\mu}= (g-2)/2$, to a groundbreaking precision of $140$ ppb, obtaining a near four-fold increase in precision over the previous experiment, E821, at the Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL). The value of $a_{\mu}$ from BNL currently differs from the Standard Model prediction by $\sim 3.7$ standard deviations, suggesting the potential for new physics and therefore, motivating a new experiment.Because the theory predicts this number with high precision, testing the g-factor through experiment provides a stringent test of the SM and can suggest physics beyond the Standard Model. The goal of the Fermilab Muon $g-2$ experiment is to increase the statistical precision by more than a factor of 20 and reduce systematic errors by a factor of 3. By measuring muon precession rate ($\omega_a$) in an external magnetic field, the anomalous magnetic moment will be calculated. This is an incredibly challenging experiment with a unique opportunity to provide new insight into nature. \\ The $g-2$ data also provides a great opportunity for setting the most stringent limits on some of the Standard Model Extension CPT Lorentz violating (LV) parameters in the muon sector. One of the CPT and Lorentz violating signatures that we can look for using $g-2$ data is a sidereal variation of $\omega_a(t)$. Extensive simulation studies confirm that the sensitivity regarding the sidereal varation roughly scales with $\omega_a$ uncertainty. Hence, the $g-2$ experiment at FNAL should be able to reach limits of $\sim 5\times10^{-25}$ GeV. Because the CPT and LV analyses are essentially studies of variations in $\omega_a$ as a function of time and charge, performing an $\omega_a$ analysis sets the stage for the CPT and LV measurement. This dissertation focuses on the methodology of a fully functioning framework and analyzing the Fermilab Muon $g - 2$ Run 2 data containing $\sim 11$ billion events above an energy threshold of $1.7$~GeV.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS2008

Outburst of the 2 s Anomalous X-ray Pulsar 1E 1547.0-5408

Following our discovery of radio pulsations from the newly recognized anomalous X-ray pulsar (AXP) 1E 1547.0-5408, we initiated X-ray monitoring with the Swift X-ray telescope and obtained a single target-of-opportunity observation with the Newton X-ray Multi-Mirror Mission (XMM-Newton). In comparison with its historic minimum flux of 3 x 10(exp -l3)ergs/sq cm/s, the source was found to be in a record high state, f(sub x)(1-8 keV) = 5 x 10(exp -12)ergs/sq cm/s, or L(sub x) = 1.7 x 10(exp 35)(d/9 kpc )(sup 2)ergs/s, and declining by 25% in 1 month. Extrapolating the decay, we bound the total energy in this outburst to 1042 ergs < E < ergs. The spectra (fitted with a Comptonized blackbody) show that an increase in the temperature and area of a hot region, to 0.5 keV and -16% of the surface area of the neutron star, respectively, are primarily responsible for its increase in luminosity. The energy, spectrum, and timescale of decay are consistent with a deep crustal heating event, similar to an interpretation of the X-ray turn-on of the transient AXP XTE J18 10- 197. Simultaneous with the 4.6 hr ATdA4-Newton observation, we observed at 6.4 GHz with the Parkes telescope, measuring the phase relationship of the radio and X-ray pulse. The X-ray pulsed fraction of 1E 1547.0-5408 is only approx. 7 %, while its radio pulse is relatively broad for such a slow pulsar, which may indicate a nearly aligned rotator. As also inferred from the transient behavior of XTE J18 10-197, the only other AXP known to emit in the radio, the magnetic field rearrangement responsible for this X-ray outburst of 1E 1547.0-5408 is probably the cause of its radio turn-on.

Halpern, J. P.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cascadia Burning: The historic, but not historically unprecedented, 2020 wildfires in the Pacific Northwest, USA

Abstract Wildfires devastated communities in Oregon and Washington in September 2020, burning almost as much forest west of the Cascade Mountain crest (“the westside”) in 2 weeks (~340,000 ha) as in the previous five decades (~406,00 ha). Unlike dry forests of the interior western United States, temperate rain forests of the Pacific Northwest have experienced limited recent fire activity, and debates surrounding what drove the 2020 fires, and management strategies to adapt to similar future events, necessitate a scientific evaluation of the fires. We evaluate five questions regarding the 2020 Labor Day fires: (1) How do the 2020 fires compare with historical fires? (2) How did the roles of weather and antecedent climate differ geographically and from the recent past (1979–2019)? (3) How do fire size and severity compare to other recent fires (1985–2019), and how did forest management and prefire forest structure influence burn severity? (4) What impact will these fires have on westside landscapes? and (5) How can we adapt to similar fires in the future? Although 5 of the 2020 fires were much larger than any others in the recent past and burned ~10 times the area in high‐severity patches >10,000 ha, the 2020 fires were remarkably consistent with historical fires. Reports from the early 1900s, along with paleo‐ and dendro‐ecological records, indicate similar and potentially even larger wildfires over the past millennium, many of which shared similar seasonality (late August/early September), weather conditions, and even geographic locations. Consistent with the largest historical fires, strong east winds and anomalously dry conditions drove the rapid spread of high‐severity wildfire in 2020. We found minimal difference in burn severity among stand structural types related to previous management in the 2020 fires. Adaptation strategies for similar fires in the future could benefit by focusing on ignition prevention, fire suppression, and community preparedness, as opposed to fuel treatments that are unlikely to mitigate fire severity during extreme weather. While scientific uncertainties remain regarding the nature of infrequent, high‐severity fires in westside forests, particularly under climate change, adapting to their future occurrence will require different strategies than those in interior, dry forests.

Reilly, Matthew J.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Characteristics and Variability of Winter Northern Pacific Atmospheric River Flavors

Abstract Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are intensive poleward moisture transport events that are essential to the global hydrological cycle and are often linked to extreme weather events. We categorize the winter North Pacific ARs into two “flavors”: wind‐dominated (windy ARs) and moisture‐dominated (wet ARs) using 40 years of hourly data from fifth generation of the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts Interim Reanalysis. We compare the differences between windy ARs and wet ARs including the lifecycle characteristics (such as genesis locations and changes of meteorological elements through the lifecycle), overall AR frequency, landfall impacts, and variability. The windy ARs are more likely to occur in the midlatitudes, while wet ARs are more active in the subtropics. Windy ARs are associated with intensive surface pressure lows, where the strong pressure gradient can support the strong wind within ARs. Due to larger size and longer lifetime, wet ARs are more likely to produce more precipitation over a lifecycle. By scaling the landfalling ARs, we show that wet ARs dominate the high‐category ARs (Category 4 and 5) with higher spatial frequency and more precipitation, and windy ARs have higher contributions in the lower AR categories especially over British Columbia. Windy ARs are modulated by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections via the anomalous geopotential height and extended subtropical jet. Wet ARs are affected by the anomalous sea surface temperature over the midlatitudes related to ENSO. Sensitivity analysis with an alternate AR detection algorithm shows consistent results on AR flavors but with disagreement on the amplitude.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2009

The 2006-2007 Active Phase Of Anomalous X-Ray Pulsar 4U 0142+61: Radiative and Timing Changes, Bursts, and Burst Spectral Features

After at least 6 years of quiescence, Anomalous X-ray Pulsar (AXP) 4U 0142+61 entered an active phase in 2006 March that lasted several months and included six X-ray bursts as well as many changes in the persistent X-ray emission. The bursts, the first seen from this AXP in >11 years of Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer monitoring, all occurred in the interval between 2006 April 6 and 2007 February 7. The burst durations ranged from 8-3x10(exp 3)s. The first five burst spectra are well modeled by blackbodies, with temperatures kT approx. 2 - 6 keV. However, the sixth burst had a complicated spectrum that is well characterized by a blackbody plus three emission features whose amplitude varied throughout the burst. The most prominent feature was at 14.0 keV. Upon entry into the active phase the pulsar showed a significant change in pulse morphology and a likely timing glitch. The glitch had a total frequency jump of (1.9+/-0.4)x10(exp -7) Hz, which recovered with a decay time of 17+/-2 days by more than the initial jump, implying a net spin-down of the pulsar. We discuss these events in the context of the magnetar model.

Gavril, Fotis P.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Precursor Analysis Report: Remote Access Attack on Oldsmar Water Treatment Facility 2021

The Remote Access Attack on Oldsmar Water Treatment Facility 2021 Precursor Analysis Report leverages publicly available information about the Oldsmar cyber attack and catalogs anomalous observables for each technique employed in the attack. This analysis is based upon the methodology of the Cybersecurity for the Operational Technology Environment (CyOTE) program. On 5 February 2021, an adversary gained unauthorized remote access to Bruce T. Haddock Water Treatment Plant in Oldsmar, Florida, which provides treated water to 15,000 customers. The adversary accessed the facility’s Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) workstation and human machine interface (HMI) to change the chemical concentration of sodium hydroxide, commonly referred to as lye and used to regulate acidity levels, from 100 parts per million (PPM) to 11,100 PPM. The chemical was raised to lethal levels that if ingested could lead to serious soft tissue damage, burns, or even death. The facility, however, had redundancies and alarms in place to alert personnel of dangerous chemical levels, and facility officials stated it would have taken 24 to 36 hours for the chemical changes to affect the water supply. Researchers and analysts identified six unique techniques utilized during the attack with a total of 23 observables using MITRE ATT&CK® for Industrial Control Systems. The CyOTE program assesses observables accompanying techniques used prior to the triggering event to identify opportunities to detect malicious activity. If observables accompanying the attack techniques are perceived and investigated prior to the triggering event, earlier comprehension of malicious activity can take place. Four of the identified techniques used during the Oldsmar cyber attack were precursors to the triggering event. Analysis identified 21 observables associated with these precursor techniques, 20 of which were assessed to have an increased likelihood of being perceived in the minutes preceding the triggering event. The response and comprehension time could have been reduced if the observables had been identified earlier. The information gathered in this report contributes to a library of observables tied to a repository of artifacts, data sources, and technique detection references for practitioners and developers to support the comprehension of indicators of attack. Asset owners and operators can use these products if they experience similar observables or to prepare for comparable scenarios.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
NASA NTRS1998

Deciphering the Long-Term Trend of Atlantic Basin Intense Hurricanes: More Active Versus Less Active During the Present Epoch

During the interval of 1944-1997, 120 intense hurricanes (i.e., those of category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane damage potential scale) were observed in the Atlantic basin, having an annual frequency of 0-7 events per year, being more active prior to the mid 1960's than thereafter (hence a possible two-state division: more active versus less active), and being preferentially lower during El Nino years as compared to non-El Nino years. Because decadal averages of the frequency of intense hurricanes closely resemble those of average temperature anomalies for northern hemispheric and global standards and of the average temperature at the Armagh Observatory (Northern Ireland), a proxy for climatic change, it is inferred that the long-term trends of the annual frequency of intense hurricanes and temperature may be statistically related. Indeed, on the basis of 4- and 10-yr moving averages, one finds that there exists strong linear associations between the annual frequency of intense hurricanes in the Atlantic basin and temperature (specially, when temperature slightly leads). Because the long-term leading trends of temperature are now decidedly upward, beginning about the mid 1980's, it is inferred that the long-term consequential trends of the annual frequency of intense hurricanes should now also be upward, having begun near 1990, suggesting that a return to the more active state probably has already occurred. However, because of the anomalous El Nino activity of the early to mid 1990's, the switch from the less active to the more active state essentially went unnoticed (a marked increase in the number of intense hurricanes was not observed until the 1995 and 1996 hurricane seasons, following the end of the anomalous El Nino activity). Presuming that a return to the more active state has, indeed, occurred, one expects the number of seasonal intense hurricanes during the present epoch (continuing through about 2012) to usually be higher than average (i.e., greater than or equal to 2), except during El Nino-related seasons when the number usually will be less than average.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
DOE OSTI2021

A contextual sensor system for non-intrusive machine status and energy monitoring

Event-driven contexts in manufacturing occur pervasively as a result of interactions among involved entities such as machines, workers, materials, and environment. One of the primary tasks in smart manufacturing is to derive a context-aware system conveniently incorporating worker knowledge for generating timely actionable intelligence for workers on factory floor and supervisors to respond. In this paper, we propose to design a human-and-machine interaction recognition framework by using a causality concept to collect contextual data for classifications of normal and abnormal machine operations. The causes and effects are between workers and machines for this initial research. To apply the causality to recognize worker interactions, initially a reliable way to identify the states of machines is necessary. The proposed contextual sensor system, consisting of a power meter for measuring machine operation conditions, a visual camera for capturing worker and machine interactions via a finite state machine model, and an algorithm for determining power signatures of individual components via energy disaggregation is implemented on semiconductor fabrication machines (manual or PLC controlled) each with multiple components. The experiment results demonstrate its context extraction capability such as components states and their corresponding energy usage in real time as well as its ability to identify anomalous operation conditions.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗