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At least 559 records · Page 31

Dynamics and Predictability of Hurricane Humberto (2007) Revealed from Ensemble Analysis and Forecasting

This study uses short-range ensemble forecasts initialized with an Ensemble-Kalman filter to study the dynamics and predictability of Hurricane Humberto, which made landfall along the Texas coast in 2007. Statistical correlation is used to determine why some ensemble members strengthen the incipient low into a hurricane and others do not. It is found that deep moisture and high convective available potential energy (CAPE) are two of the most important factors for the genesis of Humberto. Variations in CAPE result in as much difference (ensemble spread) in the final hurricane intensity as do variations in deep moisture. CAPE differences here are related to the interaction between the cyclone and a nearby front, which tends to stabilize the lower troposphere in the vicinity of the circulation center. This subsequently weakens convection and slows genesis. Eventually the wind-induced surface heat exchange mechanism and differences in landfall time result in even larger ensemble spread. 1

Sippel, Jason A.↗

Using a Network of Boundary Layer Profilers to Characterize the Atmosphere at a Major Spaceport

Space launch, landing, and ground operations at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) in east-central Florida are highly sensitive to mesoscale weather conditions throughout the year. Due to the complex land-water interfaces and the important role of mesoscale circulations, a high-resolution network of five 915-MHz Doppler Radar Wind Profilers (DRWP) and 44 wind towers was installed over the KSC/CCAFS area. By using quality-controlled 915-MHz DRAT data along with the near-surface tower observations, the Applied Meteorology Unit and KSC Weather Office have studied the development and evolution of various mesoscale phenomena across KSC/CCAFS such as sea and land breezes, low-level jets, and frontal passages. This paper will present some examples of mesoscale phenomena that can impact space operations at KSC/CCAFS, focusing on the utility of the 915-MHz DRWP network in identifying important characteristics of sea/land breezes and low-level jets.

Case, Jonathan L.↗

Dramatic Change in Jupiter's Great Red Spot from Spacecraft Observations

Jupiter's Great Red Spot (GRS) is one of its most distinct and enduring features. Since the advent of modern telescopes, keen observers have noted its appearance and documented a change in shape from very oblong to oval, confirmed in measurements from spacecraft data. It currently spans the smallest latitude and longitude size ever recorded. Here we show that this change has been accompanied by an increase in cloud/haze reflectance as sensed in methane gas absorption bands, increased absorption at wavelengths shorter than 500 nanometers, and increased spectral slope between 500 and 630 nanometers. These changes occurred between 2012 and 2014, without a significant change in internal tangential wind speeds; the decreased size results in a 3.2 day horizontal cloud circulation period, shorter than previously observed. As the GRS has narrowed in latitude, it interacts less with the jets flanking its north and south edges, perhaps allowing for less cloud mixing and longer UV irradiation of cloud and aerosol particles. Given its long life and observational record, we expect that future modeling of the GRS's changes, in concert with laboratory flow experiments, will drive our understanding of vortex evolution and stability in a confined flow field crucial for comparison with other planetary atmospheres.

planets and satellites: atmospheres aEuro" planets↗

Extratropical Large-Scale Traveling Weather Systems in the Southern Hemisphere on Mars

From late-autumn through early-spring, the middle- and high-latitudes of both hemispheres of Mars and its predominantly carbon-dioxide atmosphere support mean equator-to-pole thermal contrasts, and then, support a strong mean westerly polar vortex. Observations from orbiting spacecraft indicate that this intense mean baroclinicity-barotropicity supports large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e., transient, traveling synoptic-period waves, on the order of the Rossby deformation scale). On Earth, extratropical weather disturbances arise from wind-shear instabilities, and these are critical components of the terrestrial global circulation. So it is the case for Mars. Large-scale traveling weather systems on Mars serve as agents in the transport of heat, momentum and scalar and tracer quantities (e.g., atmospheric dust, watervapor, ice clouds, chemical species, etc). Such weather systems interact with other large-scale atmospheric circulation components, namely, quasi-stationary (i.e., forced Rossby) modes; global thermal tidal modes; and then, upon large-/continental- geographical scales, upslope/ down-slope flows amongst high relief, low relief, impact basins, and volcanic rises, and more. The character of Mars' traveling extratropical weather disturbances in its southern hemisphere during late winter through early spring is investigated using a high-resolution Mars global climate model (i.e., Mars GCM), and one from the Agency's Mars Climate Modeling Center (MCMC) based at the NASA Ames Research Center. The climate model includes several complex atmospheric physical packages. With such physics modules, our global climate simulations present comparatively well with observations of the planet's current water cycle (Haberle et al.,2019). The climate model is "forced" with an annual dust cycle (i.e., nudged based on MGS/TES observations). Compared to the northern-hemisphere counterparts, the southern synoptic-period weather disturbances and accompanying frontal waves have smaller meridional and zonal scales, and are less intense. Influences of the zonally asymmetric (i.e., east-west varying) topography on southern large-scale weather are investigated, in addition to large-scale up-slope/down-slope flows and the diurnal cycle. A southern storm zone in late winter and early spring presents in the western hemisphere via orographic influences from the Tharsis highlands, and the Argyre and Hellas impact basins. Geographically localized transient-wave activity diagnostics are constructed that illuminate dynamical differences amongst the simulations and these are presented.

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.↗

A Multilayer Dataset of SSM/I-Derived Global Ocean Surface Turbulent Fluxes

A dataset including daily- and monthly-mean turbulent fluxes (momentum, latent heat, and sensible heat) and some relevant parameters over global oceans, derived from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) data, for the period July 1987-December 1994 and the 1988-94 annual and monthly-mean climatologies of the same variables is created. It has a spatial resolution of 2.0deg x 2.5deg latitude-longitude. The retrieved surface air humidity is found to be generally accurate as compared to the collocated radiosonde observations over global oceans. The retrieved wind stress and latent heat flux show useful accuracy as verified against research quality measurements of ship and buoy in the western equatorial Pacific. The 1988-94 seasonal-mean wind stress and latent heat flux show reasonable patterns related to seasonal variations of the atmospheric general circulation. The patterns of 1990-93 annual-mean turbulent fluxes and input variables are generally in good agreement with one of the best global analyzed flux datasets that based on COADS (comprehensive ocean-atmosphere data set) with corrections on wind speeds and covered the same period. The retrieved wind speed is generally within +/-1 m/s of the COADS-based, but is stronger by approx. 1-2 m/s in the northern extratropical oceans. The discrepancy is suggested to be mainly due to higher COADS-modified wind speeds resulting from underestimation of anemometer heights. Compared to the COADS-based, the retrieved latent heat flux and sea-air humidity difference are generally larger with significant differences in the trade wind zones and the ocean south of 40degS (up to approx. 40-60 W/sq m and approx. 1-1.5 g/kg). The discrepancy is believed to be mainly caused by higher COADS-based surface air humidity arising from the overestimation of dew point temperatures and from the extrapolation of observed high humidity southward into data-void regions south of 40degS. The retrieved sensible heat flux is generally within +/-5 W/sq m of UWM/COADS, except for some areas in the extratropical oceans, where the differences in wind speed have large impact on the difference in sensible heat flux. The dataset of SSM/I-derived turbulent fluxes is useful for climate studies, forcing of ocean models, and validation of coupled ocean-atmosphere global models.

Chou, Shu-Hsien↗

Acoustic Measurements from Wind Tunnel Test of AMELIA - Advanced Model for Extreme Lift and Improved Aeroacoustics

A wind tunnel test has been conducted to measure the aerodynamic and acoustic performance of an active circulation-control aircraft with leading- and trailing- edge slot blowing. The 11 Advanced Model for Extreme Lift and Improved Aeroacoustics (AMELIA) model was tested in the Arnold Engineering Development Center (AEDC) National Full Scale Aerodynamics Complex (NFAC) 40- by 80-Ft wind tunnel. Forward velocities ranged from 0 to Mach 0.15 and total slot mass-flow was varied from 0 to 2.8 lbmsec. Angle-of-attack and sideslip ranges were -5 to 25 and -10 to 10, respectively.This reports summarizes acoustic measurements from the wind tunnel test and the corrections applied to the released acoustic data. The analysis focuses on measurements for the clean wing configuration (turbine propulsion simulators removed) with trailing-and leading-edge slot blowing and with trailing-edge blowing, for systematic variations in slot mass flow from nearly zero to the system maximum. The acoustic measurements from a fixed phased microphone array and seven fixed microphones were corrected for sensor directional response and atmospheric attenuation. Graphs of 13-octave spectra, narrowband spectra, and directional variations in OASPL are presented for each active lift configuration. This report is intended to document the corresponding set of corrected data that is now available for development and verification of new predictive models of the active lift source.For large slot mass flow conditions 13-octave spectral shapes were level and flat, typical of a pink noise source. Little source directivity was present in the OASPL levels for the 0 flap conditions and show only a slight downstream increase with the 60 flap configuration. For moderate to high slot mass flow conditions trailing-edge only blowing spectra were similar to leading- and trailing edge blowing cases. However for the lower mass flows variations of as much as 5 dB were observed.

CCW↗

The Flow of Plasmaspheric Plasma in the Inner Magnetosphere: An Introduction to a Subtopic and the Methodology

The spatial and temporal variation of plasmaspheric mass throughout the inner magnetosphere as a function of changing geomagnetic and solar wind conditions is a consequence of its transport throughout the system. It is proposed that the global measurement of 30.4 -nm EUV emission from plasmaspheric He+ can be used to derive the mass transport pathways, as well as the dynamic conditions and locations of when specific pathways are active. This is to be accomplished using observations obtained by the Extreme Ultraviolet Instrument (EUV) on the Imager for Magnetopause -to-Aurora Global Exploration Mission (IMAGE). Questions to be addressed by this approach include evaluation of whether plasmaspheric transport fully accounts for the plasma lost through erosion a nd plume formation, through inward compression of the plasmapause, or by plasma redistributed back into the ionosphere? Does plasmaspheric erosion begin near 3h MLT, sweeping plasma dawnward and duskward as some report? Can the mass in a persistent plume be accounted for by continued loss from within the body of the plasmasphere or must the ionosphere be an active source? These questions are part of the broader unresolved morphology of the global circulation of plasmaspheric plasma through the magnetosphere to be lost into the solar wind, recirculated, or returned to the ionosphere. An initial demonstrations of the methodology and corresponding results will be presented.

Gallagher, D. L.↗

Response of the thermosphere and ionosphere to geomagnetic storms

Four numerical simulations have been performed, at equinox, using a coupled thermosphere-ionosphere model, to illustrate the response of the upper atmosphere to geomagnetic storms. The storms are characterized by an increase in magnetospheric energy input at high latitude for a 12-hour period; each storm commences at a different universal time (UT). The initial response at high latitude is that Joule heating raises the temperature of the upper thermosphere and ion drag drives high-velocity neutral winds. The heat source drives a global wind surge, from both polar regions, which propagates to low latitudes and into the opposite hemisphere. The surge has the character of a large-scale gravity wave with a phase speed of about 600 m/s. Behind the surge a global circulation of magnitude 100 m/s is established at middle latitudes, indicating that the wave and the onset of global circulation are manifestations of the same phenomena. A dominant feature of the response is the penetration of the surge into the opposite hemisphere where it drives poleward winds for a few hours. The global wind surge has a preference for the night sector and for the longitude of the magnetic pole and therefore depends on the UT start time of the storm. A second phase of the meridional circulation develops after the wave interaction but is also restricted, in this case by the buildup of zonal winds via the Coriolis interaction. Conservation of angular momentum may limit the buildup of zonal wind in extreme cases. The divergent wind field drives upwelling and composition change on both height and pressure surfaces. The composition bulge responds to both the background and the storm-induced horizontal winds; it does not simply rotate with Earth. During the storm the disturbance wind modulates the location of the bulge; during the recovery the background winds induce a diurnal variation in its position. Equatorward winds in sunlight produce positive ionospheric changes during the main driving phase of the storm. Negative ionospheric phases are caused by increases of molecular nitrogen in regions of sunlight, the strength of which depends on longitude and the local time of the sector during the storm input. Regions of positive phase in the ionosphere persist in the recovery period due to decreases in mean molecular mass in regions of previous downwelling. Ion density changes, expressed as a ratio of disturbed to quiet values, exhibit a diurnal variation that is driven by the location of the composition bulge; this variation explains the ac component of the local time variation of the observed negative storm phase.

Fuller-Rowell, T. J.↗

Warm and Saline Events Embedded in the Meridional Circulation of the Northern North Atlantic

Ocean state estimates from 1958 to 2005 from the Simple Ocean Assimilation System (SODA) system are analyzed to understand circulation between subtropical and subpolar Atlantic and their connection with atmospheric forcing. This analysis shows three periods (1960s, around 1980, and 2000s) with enhanced warm, saline waters reaching high latitudes, alternating with freshwater events originating at high latitudes. It complements surface drifter and altimetry data showing the subtropical -subpolar exchange leading to a significant temperature and salinity increase in the northeast Atlantic after 2001. The warm water limb of the Atlantic meridional overturning cell represented by SODA expanded in density/salinity space during these warm events. Tracer simulations using SODA velocities also show decadal variation of the Gulf Stream waters reaching the subpolar gyre and Nordic seas. The negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation index, usually invoked in such variability, fails to predict the warming and salinization in the early 2000s, with salinities not seen since the 1960s. Wind stress curl variability provided a linkage to this subtropical/subpolar gyre exchange as illustrated using an idealized two ]layer circulation model. The ocean response to the modulation of the climatological wind stress curl pattern was found to be such that the northward penetration of subtropical tracers is enhanced when amplitude of the wind stress curl is weaker than normal. In this case both the subtropical and subpolar gyres weaken and the subpolar density surfaces relax; hence, the polar front moves westward, opening an enhanced northward access of the subtropical waters in the eastern boundary current.

Hakkinen, Sirpa↗

Eddy-Mediated Turbulent Mixing of Oxygen in the Equatorial Pacific

In the tropical Pacific, weak ventilation and intense microbial respiration at depth give rise to a low dissolved oxygen (O 2 ) environment that is thought to be ventilated primarily by the equatorial current system (ECS). The role of mesoscale eddies and vertical mixing as potential pathways of O 2 supply in this region, however, remains poorly known due to sparse observations and coarse model resolution. Using an eddy resolving simulation of ocean circulation and biogeochemistry, we assess the contribution of these processes to the O 2 budget balance and find that vertical mixing of O 2 , which is modulated by the surface wind speed and the vertical shear of the eddying currents, contributes substantially to the replenishment of O 2 in the upper equatorial Pacific thermocline, complementing the advective supply of O 2 by the ECS and meridional circulation at depth. These transport processes vary seasonally in conjunction with the wind: mixing of O 2 into the upper thermocline is strongest during boreal summer and fall when the vertical shear and eddy kinetic energy are intensified. The relationship between eddy activity and the downward mixing of O 2 arises from the modulation of equatorial turbulence by Tropical Instability Waves via their impacts on the vertical shear. This interaction of processes across scales sustains a local pathway of O 2 delivery into the equatorial Pacific interior and highlights the need for adequate observations and models of turbulent mixing and mesoscale processes for understanding and predicting the fate of the tropical Pacific O 2 content in a warmer and more stratified ocean.

Eddy-Mediated↗

Some aspects of metallic ion chemistry and dynamics in the mesosphere and thermosphere

The relationship between the formation of sporadic layers of metallic ion and the dumping of these ions into the upper mesosphere is discussed in terms of the tidal wind, classical (i.e., windshear) and other more complex, perhaps highly nonlinear layer formation mechanisms, and a possible circulation mechanism for these ions. Optical, incoherent scatter radar, rocket, and satellite derived evidence for various layer formation mechanisms and for the metallic ion circulation system is reviewed. The results of simple one dimensional numerical model calculations of sporadic E and intermediate layer formation are presented along with suggestions for more advanced models of intense or blanketing sporadic E. The flux of metallic ions dumped by the tidal wind system into the mesosphere is estimated and compared with estimates of total particle flux of meteoric origin. Possible effects of the metallic ion flux and of meteoric dust on D region ion chemistry are discussed.

Mathews, J. D.↗

Pollen antigens and atmospheric circulation driven seasonal respiratory viral outbreak and its implication to the Covid-19 pandemic

Abstract The patterns of respiratory virus illness are expressed differently between temperate and tropical climates. Tropical outbreaks often peak in wet seasons. Temperate outbreaks typically peak during the winter. The prevailing causal hypotheses focus on sunlight, temperature and humidity variations. Yet no consistent factors have been identified to sufficiently explain seasonal virus emergence and decline at any latitude. Here we demonstrate close connections among global-scale atmospheric circulations, IgE antibody enhancement through seasonal pollen inhalation, and respiratory virus patterns at any populated latitude, with a focus on the US. Pollens emerge each Spring, and the renewed IgE titers in the population are argued to terminate each winter peak of respiratory illness. Globally circulated airborne viruses are postulated to subsequently deposit across the Southern US during lower zonal geostrophic winds each late Summer. This seasonally refreshed viral load is postulated to trigger a new influenza outbreak, once the existing IgE antibodies diminish to a critical value each Fall. Our study offers a new and consistent explanation for the seasonal diminishment of respiratory viral illnesses in temperate climates, the subdued seasonal signature in the tropics, the annually circulated virus phenotypes, and the northerly migration of influenza across the US every year. Our integrated geospatial and IgE hypothesis provides a new perspective for prediction, mitigation and prevention of the outbreak and spread of seasonal respiratory viruses including Covid-19 pandemic.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A comparison of two- and three-dimensional tracer transport within a stratospheric circulation model

Use of the residual circulation for stratospheric tracer transport has been compared to a fully three-dimensional calculation. The wind fields used in this study were obtained from a global, semispectral, primitive equation model, extending from 10 to 100 km in altitude. Comparisons were done with a passive tracer and an ozone-like substance over a two-month period corresponding to a Northern Hemisphere winter. It was found that the use of the residual circulation can lead to errors in the tracer concentrations of about a factor of 2. The error is made up of two components. One is fluctuating with a period of approximately one month and reflects directly the wave transience that occurs on that time-scale. The second part is increasing steadily over the integration period and results from an overestimate of the vertical transport by the residual circulation. Furthermore, the equatorward and upward mixing that occurs with transport by the three-dimensional circulation at low latitudes is not well reproduced when the residual circulation is used.

Schneider, H.-R.↗

Nonlinear axially symmetric circulations in a nearly inviscid atmosphere

The structure of certain axially symmetric circulations in a stably stratified, differentially heated, rotating Boussinesq fluid on a sphere is analyzed. A simple approximate theory (similar to that introduced by Schneider (1977)) is developed for the case in which the fluid is sufficiently inviscid that the poleward flow in the Hadley cell is nearly angular momentum conserving. The theory predicts the width of the Hadley cell, the total poleward heat flux, the latitude of the upper level jet in the zonal wind, and the distribution of surface easterlies and westerlies. Fundamental differences between such nearly inviscid circulations and the more commonly studied viscous axisymmetric flows are emphasized. The theory is checked against numerical solutions to the model equations.

Held, I. M.↗

Sensitivity of Middle Atmospheric Temperature and Circulation in the UIUC Mesosphere-Stratosphere-Troposphere GCM to the Treatment of Subgrid-Scale Gravity-Wave Breaking

The sensitivity of the middle atmospheric temperature and circulation to the treatment of mean- flow forcing due to breaking gravity waves was investigated using the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign 40-layer Mesosphere-Stratosphere-Troposphere General Circulation Model (MST-GCM). Three GCM experiments were performed. The gravity-wave forcing was represented first by Rayleigh friction, and then by the Alexander and Dunkerton (AD) parameterization with weak and strong breaking effects of gravity waves. In all experiments, the Palmer et al. parameterization was included to treat the breaking of topographic gravity waves in the troposphere and lower stratosphere. Overall, the experiment with the strong breaking effect simulates best the middle atmospheric temperature and circulation. With Rayleigh friction and the weak breaking effect, a large warm bias of up to 60 C was found in the summer upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere. This warm bias was linked to the inability of the GCM to simulate the reversal of the zonal winds from easterly to westerly crossing the mesopause in the summer hemisphere. With the strong breaking effect, the GCM was able to simulate this reversal, and essentially eliminated the warm bias. This improvement was the result of a much stronger meridional transport circulation that possesses a strong vertical ascending branch in the summer upper mesosphere, and hence large adiabatic cooling. Budget analysis indicates that 'in the middle atmosphere the forces that act to maintain a steady zonal-mean zonal wind are primarily those associated with the meridional transport circulation and breaking gravity waves. Contributions from the interaction of the model-resolved eddies with the mean flow are small. To obtain a transport circulation in the mesosphere of the UIUC MST-GCM that is strong enough to produce the observed cold summer mesopause, gravity-wave forcing larger than 100 m/s/day in magnitude is required near the summer mesopause. In the tropics, only with the AD parameterization can the model produce realistic semiannual oscillations.

Yang, Fanglin↗

Northern North Atlantic Sea Surface Height and Ocean Heat Content Variability

The evolution of nearly 20 years of altimetric sea surface height (SSH) is investigated to understand its association with decadal to multidecadal variability of the North Atlantic heat content. Altimetric SSH is dominated by an increase of about 14 cm in the Labrador and Irminger seas from 1993 to 2011, while the opposite has occurred over the Gulf Stream region over the same time period. During the altimeter period the observed 0-700 m ocean heat content (OHC) in the subpolar gyre mirrors the increased SSH by its dominantly positive trend. Over a longer period, 1955-2011, fluctuations in the subpolar OHC reflect Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) and can be attributed to advection driven by the wind stress ''gyre mode'' bringing more subtropical waters into the subpolar gyre. The extended subpolar warming evident in SSH and OHC during the altimeter period represents transition of the AMV from cold to warm phase. In addition to the dominant trend, the first empirical orthogonal function SSH time series shows an abrupt change 2009-2010 reaching a new minimum in 2010. The change coincides with the change in the meridional overturning circulation at 26.5N as observed by the RAPID (Rapid Climate Change) project, and with extreme behavior of the wind stress gyre mode and of atmospheric blocking. While the general relationship between northern warming and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) volume transport remains undetermined, the meridional heat and salt transport carried by AMOC's arteries are rich with decade-to-century timescale variability.

Sea-surface↗

A numerical model simulation of the regional air pollution meteorology of the greater Chesapeake Bay area - Summer day case study

The mesoscale numerical model of the University of Virginia (UVMM), has been applied to the greater Chesapeake Bay area in order to provide a detailed description of the air pollution meteorology during a typical summer day. This model provides state of the art simulations for land-sea thermally induced circulations. The model-predicted results agree favorably with available observed data. The effects of synoptic flow and sea breeze coupling on air pollution meteorological characteristics in this region, are demonstrated by a spatial and temporal presentation of various model predicted fields. A transport analysis based on predicted wind velocities indicated possible recirculation of pollutants back onto the Atlantic coast due to the sea breeze circulation.

Segal, M.↗

A composite study of onset of the Australian summer monsoon

The circulation changes that accompany an onset (defined as the first occurrence of wet 850-mb westerly winds at Darwin, Australia) of the Australian summer monsoon are documented by a composite study for the years 1957-1987. Composites of atmospheric fields at stations in and about the Australian tropics are constructed relative to the onset data at Darwin. It is shown that the composite onset is dominated by a slow eastward migration of a deep-baroclinic convective circulation displaced south of the equator. This propagating anomaly exhibited many features of the so-called 40-50 day oscillation, including an upper level anticyclone that accompanies the convective anomaly.

Hendon, Harry H.↗