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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 559 records · Page 31
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2015

Solar Power Ramp Events Detection Using an Optimized Swinging Door Algorithm: Preprint

Solar power ramp events (SPREs) are those that significantly influence the integration of solar power on non-clear days and threaten the reliable and economic operation of power systems. Accurately extracting solar power ramps becomes more important with increasing levels of solar power penetrations in power systems. In this paper, we develop an optimized swinging door algorithm (OpSDA) to detection. First, the swinging door algorithm (SDA) is utilized to segregate measured solar power generation into consecutive segments in a piecewise linear fashion. Then we use a dynamic programming approach to combine adjacent segments into significant ramps when the decision thresholds are met. In addition, the expected SPREs occurring in clear-sky solar power conditions are removed. Measured solar power data from Tucson Electric Power is used to assess the performance of the proposed methodology. OpSDA is compared to two other ramp detection methods: the SDA and the L1-Ramp Detect with Sliding Window (L1-SW) method. The statistical results show the validity and effectiveness of the proposed method. OpSDA can significantly improve the performance of the SDA, and it can perform as well as or better than L1-SW with substantially less computation time.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2015

Evaluation of electropolished stainless steel electrodes for use in DC high voltage photoelectron guns

DC high voltage photoelectron guns are used to produce polarized electron beams for accelerator-based nuclear and high-energy physics research. Low-level field emission (∼nA) from the cathode electrode degrades the vacuum within the photogun and reduces the photoelectron yield of the delicate GaAs-based photocathode used to produce the electron beams. High-level field emission (>μA) can cause significant damage the photogun. To minimize field emission, stainless steel electrodes are typically diamond-paste polished, a labor-intensive process often yielding field emission performance with a high degree of variability, sample to sample. As an alternative approach and as comparative study, the performance of electrodes electropolished by conventional commercially available methods is presented. Our observations indicate the electropolished electrodes exhibited less field emission upon the initial application of high voltage, but showed less improvement with gas conditioning compared to the diamond-paste polished electrodes. In contrast, the diamond-paste polished electrodes responded favorably to gas conditioning, and ultimately reached higher voltages and field strengths without field emission, compared to electrodes that were only electropolished. The best performing electrode was one that was both diamond-paste polished and electropolished, reaching a field strength of 18.7 MV/m while generating less than 100 pA of field emission. The authors speculate that the combined processes were the most effective at reducing both large and small scale topography. However, surface science evaluation indicates topography cannot be the only relevant parameter when it comes to predicting field emission performance.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2016

Quantifying element incorporation in multispecies biofilms using nanoscale secondary ion mass spectrometry image analysis

Elucidating nutrient exchange in microbial communities is an important step in understanding the relationships between microbial systems and global biogeochemical cycles, but these communities are complex and the interspecies interactions that occur within them are not well understood. Phototrophic consortia are useful and relevant experimental systems to investigate such interactions as they are not only prevalent in the environment, but some are cultivable in vitro and amenable to controlled scientific experimentation. Nanoscale secondary ion mass spectrometry (NanoSIMS) is a powerful, high spatial resolution tool capable of visualizing the metabolic activities of single cells within a biofilm, but quantitative analysis of the resulting data has typically been a manual process, resulting in a task that is both laborious and susceptible to human error. In this work, the authors describe the creation and application of a semiautomated image-processing pipeline that can analyze NanoSIMS-generated data, applied to phototrophic biofilms as an example. The tool employs an image analysis process, which includes both elemental and morphological segmentation, producing a final segmented image that allows for discrimination between autotrophic and heterotrophic biomass, the detection of individual cyanobacterial filaments and heterotrophic cells, the quantification of isotopic incorporation of individual heterotrophic cells, and calculation of relevant population statistics. The authors demonstrate the functionality of the tool by using it to analyze the uptake of 15 N provided as either nitrate or ammonium through the unicyanobacterial consortium UCC-O and imaged via NanoSIMS. The authors found that the degree of 15N incorporation by individual cells was highly variable when labeled with 15 NH 4 + , but much more even when biofilms were labeled with 15 NO 3 – . In the 15 NH 4 + -amended biofilms, the heterotrophic distribution of 15 N incorporation was highly skewed, with a large population showing moderate 15 N incorporation and a small number of organisms displaying very high 15 N uptake. The results showed that analysis of NanoSIMS data can be performed in a way that allows for quantitation of the elemental uptake of individual cells, a technique necessary for advancing research into the metabolic networks that exist within biofilms with statistical analyses that are supported by automated, user-friendly processes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Fabrication of hard x-ray zone plates with high aspect ratio using metal-assisted chemical etching

Fresnel zone plates are widely used as nanofocusing optics for x-ray microscopy, where the spatial resolution is set by the width of the finest rings while the efficiency is set by their thickness. This leads to the requirement for high aspect ratio nanofabrication. Metal-assisted chemical etching and atomic layer deposition has already been used to produce high aspect ratio zone plate structures on un-thinned silicon wafers. We demonstrate here a substantial improvement on the achieved aspect ratio up to a value of 500:1, by producing 16 nm wide platinum zones with thicknesses up to 8 µm. At the same time, the silicon substrate was thinned to 15 µm as required for a practically useful optic. First tests have shown 4.8% diffraction efficiency using 20 keV X rays. This x-ray focusing efficiency is higher than most Fresnel zone plates for this photon energy and near what has been achieved with multilayer-coated Kirkpatrick-Baez mirrors, and multilayer Laue lenses. Hard x-ray zone plates offer the advantages of easy alignment, energy tunability, and one can make many zone plates in a batch on a single silicon chip.

Fresnel zone plates↗
DOE OSTI2013

Tracking the dynamic seroma cavity using fiducial markers in patients treated with accelerated partial breast irradiation using 3D conformal radiotherapy

Purpose: The purpose of the present study was to perform an analysis of the changes in the dynamic seroma cavity based on fiducial markers in early stage breast cancer patients treated with accelerated partial breast irradiation (APBI) using three-dimensional conformal external beam radiotherapy (3D-CRT). Methods: A prospective, single arm trial was designed to investigate the utility of gold fiducial markers in image guided APBI using 3D-CRT. At the time of lumpectomy, four to six suture-type gold fiducial markers were sutured to the walls of the cavity. Patients were treated with a fractionation scheme consisting of 15 fractions with a fractional dose of 333 cGy. Treatment design and planning followed NSABP/RTOG B-39 guidelines. During radiation treatment, daily kV imaging was performed and the markers were localized and tracked. The change in distance between fiducial markers was analyzed based on the planning CT and daily kV images. Results: Thirty-four patients were simulated at an average of 28 days after surgery, and started the treatment on an average of 39 days after surgery. The average intermarker distance (AiMD) between fiducial markers was strongly correlated to seroma volume. The average reduction in AiMD was 19.1% (range 0.0%-41.4%) and 10.8% (range 0.0%-35.6%) for all the patients between simulation and completion of radiotherapy, and between simulation and beginning of radiotherapy, respectively. The change of AiMD fits an exponential function with a half-life of seroma shrinkage. The average half-life for seroma shrinkage was 15 days. After accounting for the reduction which started to occur after surgery through CT simulation and treatment, radiation was found to have minimal impact on the distance change over the treatment course. Conclusions: Using the marker distance change as a surrogate for seroma volume, it appears that the seroma cavity experiences an exponential reduction in size. The change in seroma size has implications in the size of the CTV, PTV, and percent of normal breast tissue irradiated when using 3D-CRT.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Prospects for in vivo estimation of photon linear attenuation coefficients using postprocessing dual-energy CT imaging on a commercial scanner: Comparison of analytic and polyenergetic statistical reconstruction algorithms

Purpose: Accurate patient-specific photon cross-section information is needed to support more accurate model-based dose calculation for low energy photon-emitting modalities in medicine such as brachytherapy and kilovoltage x-ray imaging procedures. A postprocessing dual-energy CT (pDECT) technique for noninvasivein vivo estimation of photon linear attenuation coefficients has been experimentally implemented on a commercial CT scanner and its accuracy assessed in idealized phantom geometries. Methods: Eight test materials of known composition and density were used to compare pDECT-estimated linear attenuation coefficients to NIST reference values over an energy range from 10 keV to 1 MeV. As statistical image reconstruction (SIR) has been shown to reconstruct images with less random and systematic error than conventional filtered backprojection (FBP), the pDECT technique was implemented with both an in-house polyenergetic SIR algorithm, alternating minimization (AM), as well as a conventional FBP reconstruction algorithm. Improvement from increased spectral separation was also investigated by filtering the high-energy beam with an additional 0.5 mm of tin. The law of propagated uncertainty was employed to assess the sensitivity of the pDECT process to errors in reconstructed images. Results: Mean pDECT-estimated linear attenuation coefficients for the eight test materials agreed within 1% of NIST reference values for energies from 1 MeV down to 30 keV, with mean errors rising to between 3% and 6% at 10 keV, indicating that the method is unbiased when measurement and calibration phantom geometries are matched. Reconstruction with FBP and AM algorithms conferred similar mean pDECT accuracy. However, single-voxel pDECT estimates reconstructed on a 1 × 1 × 3 mm{sup 3} grid are shown to be highly sensitive to reconstructed image uncertainty; in some cases pDECT attenuation coefficient estimates exhibited standard deviations on the order of 20% around the mean. Reconstruction with the statistical AM algorithm led to standard deviations roughly 40% to 60% less than FBP reconstruction. Additional tin filtration of the high energy beam exhibits similar pDECT estimation accuracy as the unfiltered beam, even when scanning with only 25% of the dose. Using the law of propagated uncertainty, low Z materials are found to be more sensitive to image reconstruction errors than high Z materials. Furthermore, it is estimated that reconstructed CT image uncertainty must be limited to less than 0.25% to achieve a target linear-attenuation coefficient estimation uncertainty of 3% at 28 keV. Conclusions: That pDECT supports mean linear attenuation coefficient measurement accuracies of 1% of reference values for energies greater than 30 keV is encouraging. However, the sensitivity of the pDECT measurements to noise and systematic errors in reconstructed CT images warrants further investigation in more complex phantom geometries. The investigated statistical reconstruction algorithm, AM, reduced random measurement uncertainty relative to FBP owing to improved noise performance. These early results also support efforts to increase DE spectral separation, which can further reduce the pDECT sensitivity to measurement uncertainty.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2013

Automated fibroglandular tissue segmentation and volumetric density estimation in breast MRI using an atlas-aided fuzzy C-means method

Purpose: Breast magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) plays an important role in the clinical management of breast cancer. Studies suggest that the relative amount of fibroglandular (i.e., dense) tissue in the breast as quantified in MR images can be predictive of the risk for developing breast cancer, especially for high-risk women. Automated segmentation of the fibroglandular tissue and volumetric density estimation in breast MRI could therefore be useful for breast cancer risk assessment. Methods: In this work the authors develop and validate a fully automated segmentation algorithm, namely, an atlas-aided fuzzy C-means (FCM-Atlas) method, to estimate the volumetric amount of fibroglandular tissue in breast MRI. The FCM-Atlas is a 2D segmentation method working on a slice-by-slice basis. FCM clustering is first applied to the intensity space of each 2D MR slice to produce an initial voxelwise likelihood map of fibroglandular tissue. Then a prior learned fibroglandular tissue likelihood atlas is incorporated to refine the initial FCM likelihood map to achieve enhanced segmentation, from which the absolute volume of the fibroglandular tissue (|FGT|) and the relative amount (i.e., percentage) of the |FGT| relative to the whole breast volume (FGT%) are computed. The authors' method is evaluated by a representative dataset of 60 3D bilateral breast MRI scans (120 breasts) that span the full breast density range of the American College of Radiology Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System. The automated segmentation is compared to manual segmentation obtained by two experienced breast imaging radiologists. Segmentation performance is assessed by linear regression, Pearson's correlation coefficients, Student's pairedt-test, and Dice's similarity coefficients (DSC). Results: The inter-reader correlation is 0.97 for FGT% and 0.95 for |FGT|. When compared to the average of the two readers’ manual segmentation, the proposed FCM-Atlas method achieves a correlation ofr = 0.92 for FGT% and r = 0.93 for |FGT|, and the automated segmentation is not statistically significantly different (p = 0.46 for FGT% and p = 0.55 for |FGT|). The bilateral correlation between left breasts and right breasts for the FGT% is 0.94, 0.92, and 0.95 for reader 1, reader 2, and the FCM-Atlas, respectively; likewise, for the |FGT|, it is 0.92, 0.92, and 0.93, respectively. For the spatial segmentation agreement, the automated algorithm achieves a DSC of 0.69 ± 0.1 when compared to reader 1 and 0.61 ± 0.1 for reader 2, respectively, while the DSC between the two readers’ manual segmentation is 0.67 ± 0.15. Additional robustness analysis shows that the segmentation performance of the authors' method is stable both with respect to selecting different cases and to varying the number of cases needed to construct the prior probability atlas. The authors' results also show that the proposed FCM-Atlas method outperforms the commonly used two-cluster FCM-alone method. The authors' method runs at ∼5 min for each 3D bilateral MR scan (56 slices) for computing the FGT% and |FGT|, compared to ∼55 min needed for manual segmentation for the same purpose. Conclusions: The authors' method achieves robust segmentation and can serve as an efficient tool for processing large clinical datasets for quantifying the fibroglandular tissue content in breast MRI. It holds a great potential to support clinical applications in the future including breast cancer risk assessment.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2014

Medical imaging using ionizing radiation: Optimization of dose and image quality in fluoroscopy

The 2012 Summer School of the American Association of Physicists in Medicine (AAPM) focused on optimization of the use of ionizing radiation in medical imaging. Day 2 of the Summer School was devoted to fluoroscopy and interventional radiology and featured seven lectures. These lectures have been distilled into a single review paper covering equipment specification and siting, equipment acceptance testing and quality control, fluoroscope configuration, radiation effects, dose estimation and measurement, and principles of flat panel computed tomography. This review focuses on modern fluoroscopic equipment and is comprised in large part of information not found in textbooks on the subject. While this review does discuss technical aspects of modern fluoroscopic equipment, it focuses mainly on the clinical use and support of such equipment, from initial installation through estimation of patient dose and management of radiation effects. This review will be of interest to those learning about fluoroscopy, to those wishing to update their knowledge of modern fluoroscopic equipment, to those wishing to deepen their knowledge of particular topics, such as flat panel computed tomography, and to those who support fluoroscopic equipment in the clinic.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2014

Model-based dose calculations for COMS eye plaque brachytherapy using an anatomically realistic eye phantom

Purpose : To investigate the effects of the composition and geometry of ocular media and tissues surrounding the eye on dose distributions for COMS eye plaque brachytherapy with{sup 125}I, {sup 103}Pd, or {sup 131}Cs seeds, and to investigate doses to ocular structures. Methods : An anatomically and compositionally realistic voxelized eye model with a medial tumor is developed based on a literature review. Mass energy absorption and attenuation coefficients for ocular media are calculated. Radiation transport and dose deposition are simulated using the EGSnrc Monte Carlo user-code BrachyDose for a fully loaded COMS eye plaque within a water phantom and our full eye model for the three radionuclides. A TG-43 simulation with the same seed configuration in a water phantom neglecting the plaque and interseed effects is also performed. The impact on dose distributions of varying tumor position, as well as tumor and surrounding tissue media is investigated. Each simulation and radionuclide is compared using isodose contours, dose volume histograms for the lens and tumor, maximum, minimum, and average doses to structures of interest, and doses to voxels of interest within the eye. Results : Mass energy absorption and attenuation coefficients of the ocular media differ from those of water by as much as 12% within the 20–30 keV photon energy range. For all radionuclides studied, average doses to the tumor and lens regions in the full eye model differ from those for the plaque in water by 8%–10% and 13%–14%, respectively; the average doses to the tumor and lens regions differ between the full eye model and the TG-43 simulation by 2%–17% and 29%–34%, respectively. Replacing the surrounding tissues in the eye model with water increases the maximum and average doses to the lens by 2% and 3%, respectively. Substituting the tumor medium in the eye model for water, soft tissue, or an alternate melanoma composition affects tumor dose compared to the default eye model simulation by up to 16%. In the full eye model simulations, the average dose to the lens is larger by 7%–9% than the dose to the center of the lens, and the maximum dose to the optic nerve is 17%–22% higher than the dose to the optic disk for all radionuclides. In general, when normalized to the same prescription dose at the tumor apex, doses delivered to all structures of interest in the full eye model are lowest for{sup 103}Pd and highest for {sup 131}Cs, except for the tumor where the average dose is highest for {sup 103}Pd and lowest for {sup 131}Cs. Conclusions : The eye is not radiologically water-equivalent, as doses from simulations of the plaque in the full eye model differ considerably from doses for the plaque in a water phantom and from simulated TG-43 calculated doses. This demonstrates the importance of model-based dose calculations for eye plaque brachytherapy, for which accurate elemental compositions of ocular media are necessary.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2014

SU-E-J-172: A Quantitative Assessment of Lung Tumor Motion Using 4DCT Imaging Under Conditions of Controlled Breathing in the Management of Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) Using Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy (SBRT)

Purpose: To study breathing related tumor motion amplitudes by lung lobe location under controlled breathing conditions used in Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy (SBRT) for NSCLC. Methods: Sixty-five NSCLC SBRT patients since 2009 were investigated. Patients were categorized based on tumor anatomic location (RUL-17, RML-7, RLL-18, LUL-14, LLL-9). A 16-slice CT scanner [GE RT16 Pro] along with Varian Realtime Position Management (RPM) software was used to acquire the 4DCT data set using 1.25 mm slice width. Images were binned in 10 phases, T00 being at maximum inspiration ' T50 at maximum expiration phase. Tumor volume was segmented in T50 using the CT-lung window and its displacement were measured from phase to phase in all three axes; superiorinferior, anterior-posterior ' medial-lateral at the centroid level of the tumor. Results: The median tumor movement in each lobe was as follows: RUL= 3.8±2.0 mm (mean ITV: 9.5 cm{sup 3}), RML= 4.7±2.8 mm (mean ITV: 9.2 cm{sup 3}), RLL=6.6±2.6 mm (mean ITV: 12.3 cm{sup 3}), LUL=3.8±2.4 mm (mean ITV: 18.5 cm{sup 3}), ' LLL=4.7±2.5 mm (mean ITV: 11.9 cm{sup 3}). The median respiratory cycle for all patients was found to be 3.81 ± 1.08 seconds [minimum 2.50 seconds, maximum 7.07 seconds]. The tumor mobility incorporating breathing cycle was RUL = 0.95±0.49 mm/s, RML = 1.35±0.62 mm/s, RLL = 1.83±0.71 mm/s, LUL = 0.98 ±0.50 mm/s, and LLL = 1.15 ±0.53 mm/s. Conclusion: Our results show that tumor displacement is location dependent. The range of motion and mobility increases as the location of the tumor nears the diaphragm. Under abdominal compression, the magnitude of tumor motion is reduced by as much as a factor of 2 in comparison to reported tumor magnitudes under conventional free breathing conditions. This study demonstrates the utility of abdominal compression in reducing the tumor motion leading to reduced ITV and planning tumor volumes (PTV)

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

SU-E-T-242: Monte Carlo Simulations Used to Test the Perturbation of a Reference Ion Chamber Prototype Used for Small Fields

Purpose: To study the perturbation due to the use of a novel Reference Ion Chamber designed to measure small field dosimetry (KermaX Plus C by IBA). Methods: Using the Phase-space files for TrueBeam photon beams available by Varian in IAEA-compliant format for 6 and 15 MV. Monte Carlo simulations were performed using BEAMnrc and DOSXYZnrc to investigate the perturbation introduced by a reference chamber into the PDDs and profiles measured in water tank. Field sizes ranging from 1×1, 2×2,3×3, 5×5 cm2 were simulated for both energies with and without a 0.5 mm foil of Aluminum which is equivalent to the attenuation equivalent of the reference chamber specifications in a water phantom of 30×30×30 cm3 and a pixel resolution of 2 mm. The PDDs, profiles, and gamma analysis of the simulations were performed as well as a energy spectrum analysis of the phase-space files generated during the simulation. Results: Examination of the energy spectrum analysis performed shown a very small increment of the energy spectrum at the build-up region but no difference is appreciated after dmax. The PDD, profiles and gamma analysis had shown a very good agreement among the simulations with and without the Al foil, with a gamma analysis with a criterion of 2% and 2mm resulting in 99.9% of the points passing this criterion. Conclusion: This work indicates the potential benefits of using the KermaX Plus C as reference chamber in the measurement of PDD and Profiles for small fields since the perturbation due to in the presence of the chamber the perturbation is minimal and the chamber can be considered transparent to the photon beam.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2016

Enhanced nearfield acoustic holography for larger distances of reconstructions using fixed parameter Tikhonov regularization

This paper evaluates the performance of various regularization parameter choice methods applied to different approaches of nearfield acoustic holography when a very nearfield measurement is not possible. For a fixed grid resolution, the larger the hologram distance, the larger the error in the naive nearfield acoustic holography reconstructions. These errors can be smoothed out by using an appropriate order of regularization. In conclusion, this study shows that by using a fixed/manual choice of regularization parameter, instead of automated parameter choice methods, reasonably accurate reconstructions can be obtained even when the hologram distance is 16 times larger than the grid resolution.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2014

Measurements of jet vetoes and azimuthal decorrelations in dijet events produced in pp collisions at √s = 7 TeV using the ATLAS detector

In addition jet activity in dijet events is measured using pp collisions at ATLAS at a centre-of-mass energy of 7TeV, for jets reconstructed using the anti-k t algorithm with radius parameter R=0.6. This is done using variables such as the fraction of dijet events without an additional jet in the rapidity interval bounded by the dijet subsystem and correlations between the azimuthal angles of the dijet s. They are presented, both with and without a veto on additional jet activity in the rapidity interval, as a function of the scalar average of the transverse momenta of the dijet s and of the rapidity interval size. The double differential dijet cross section is also measured as a function of the interval size and the azimuthal angle between the dijet s. These variables probe differences in the approach to resummation of large logarithms when performing QCD calculations. The data are compared to POWERHEG , interfaced to the PYTHIA 8 and HERWIG parton shower generators, as well as to HEJ with and without interfacing it to the ARIADNE parton shower generator. None of the theoretical predictions agree with the data across the full phase-space considered; however, POWERHEG + PYTHIA 8 and HEJ + ARIADNE are found to provide the best agreement with the data. These measurements use the full data sample collected with the ATLAS detector in 7TeV pp collisions at the LHC and correspond to integrated luminosities of 36.1pb –1 and 4.5fb –1 for data collected during 2010 and 2011, respectively.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Variations of characteristic time scales in rotating stratified turbulence using a large parametric numerical study

In this work, we study rotating stratified turbulence (RST) making use of numerical data stemming from a large parametric study varying the Reynolds, Froude and Rossby numbers, Re, Fr and Ro in a broad range of values. The computations are performed using periodic boundary conditions on grids of 10243 points, with no modeling of the small scales, no forcing and with large-scale random initial conditions for the velocity field only, and there are altogether 65 runs analyzed in this paper. The buoyancy Reynolds number defined as R B = ReFr 2 varies from negligible values to ≈ 105, approaching atmospheric or oceanic regimes. This preliminary analysis deals with the variation of characteristic time scales of RST with dimensionless parameters, focusing on the role played by the partition of energy between the kinetic and potential modes, as a key ingredient for modeling the dynamics of such flows. We find that neither rotation nor the ratio of the Brunt-Väisälä frequency to the inertial frequency seem to play a major role in the absence of forcing in the global dynamics of the small-scale kinetic and potential modes. Specifically, in these computations, mostly in regimes of wave turbulence, characteristic times based on the ratio of energy to dissipation of the velocity and temperature fluctuations, T V and T P , vary substantially with parameters. Their ratio γ=T V /T P follows roughly a bell-shaped curve in terms of Richardson number Ri. It reaches a plateau --on which time scales become comparable, γ≈0.6 -- when the turbulence has significantly strengthened, leading to numerous destabilization events together with a tendency towards an isotropization of the flow.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2017

A Hindcast Experiment Using the GCAM 3.0 Agriculture and Land-Use Module

We report results of a “hindcast” experiment focusing on the agricultural and land-use component of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). We initialize GCAM to reproduce observed agriculture and land use in 1990 and forecast agriculture and land use patterns on 1-year time steps to 2010. We report overall model performance for 9 crops in 14 regions. We report areas where the hindcast is in relatively good agreement with observations and areas where the correspondence is poorer. We find that when given observed crop yields as input data, producers in GCAM implicitly have perfect foresight for yields leading to over compensation for year-to-year yield variation. We explore a simple model in which planting decisions are based on expectations but production depends on actual yields and find that this addresses the implicit perfect foresight problem. Second, while existing policies are implicitly calibrated into IAMs, changes in those policies over the period of analysis can have a dramatic effect on the fidelity model output. Third, we demonstrate that IAMs can employ techniques similar to those used by the climate modeling community to evaluate model skill. We find that hindcasting has the potential to yield substantial benefits to the IAM community.

hindcast, gc, agriculture and landuse modeling, va↗