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At least 559 records · Page 31

Monte Carlo Simulation of Markov, Semi-Markov, and Generalized Semi- Markov Processes in Probabilistic Risk Assessment

A standard tool of reliability analysis used at NASA-JSC is the event tree. An event tree is simply a probability tree, with the probabilities determining the next step through the tree specified at each node. The nodal probabilities are determined by a reliability study of the physical system at work for a particular node. The reliability study performed at a node is typically referred to as a fault tree analysis, with the potential of a fault tree existing.for each node on the event tree. When examining an event tree it is obvious why the event tree/fault tree approach has been adopted. Typical event trees are quite complex in nature, and the event tree/fault tree approach provides a systematic and organized approach to reliability analysis. The purpose of this study was two fold. Firstly, we wanted to explore the possibility that a semi-Markov process can create dependencies between sojourn times (the times it takes to transition from one state to the next) that can decrease the uncertainty when estimating time to failures. Using a generalized semi-Markov model, we studied a four element reliability model and were able to demonstrate such sojourn time dependencies. Secondly, we wanted to study the use of semi-Markov processes to introduce a time variable into the event tree diagrams that are commonly developed in PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) analyses. Event tree end states which change with time are more representative of failure scenarios than are the usual static probability-derived end states.

English, Thomas↗

Large Payload Transportation and Test Considerations

Ironically, the limiting factor to a national heavy lift strategy may not be the rocket technology needed to throw a heavy payload, but rather the terrestrial infrastructure - roads, bridges, airframes, and buildings - necessary to transport, acceptance test, and process large spacecraft. Failure to carefully consider how large spacecraft are designed, and where they are manufactured, tested, or launched, could result in unforeseen cost to modify/develop infrastructure, or incur additional risk due to increased handling or elimination of key verifications. During test and verification planning for the Altair project, a number of transportation and test issues related to the large payload diameter were identified. Although the entire Constellation Program - including Altair - was canceled in the 2011 NASA budget, issues identified by the Altair project serve as important lessons learned for future payloads that may be developed to support national "heavy lift" strategies. A feasibility study performed by the Constellation Ground Operations (CxGO) project found that neither the Altair Ascent nor Descent Stage would fit inside available transportation aircraft. Ground transportation of a payload this large over extended distances is generally not permitted by most states, so overland transportation alone would not have been an option. Limited ground transportation to the nearest waterway may be permitted, but water transportation could take as long as 66 days per production unit, depending on point of origin and acceptance test facility; transportation from the western United States would require transit through the Panama Canal to access the Kennedy Space Center launch site. Large payloads also pose acceptance test and ground processing challenges. Although propulsion, mechanical vibration, and reverberant acoustic test facilities at NASA s Plum Brook Station have been designed to accommodate large spacecraft, special handling and test work-arounds may be necessary, which could increase cost, schedule, and technical risk. Once at the launch site, there are no facilities currently capable of accommodating the combination of large payload size and hazardous processing (which includes hypergolic fuels, pyrotechnic devices, and high pressure gasses).

Rucker, Michelle A.↗

High-Speed, High-Resolution Time-to-Digital Conversion

This innovation is a series of time-tag pulses from a photomultiplier tube, featuring short time interval between pulses (e.g., 2.5 ns). Using the previous art, dead time between pulses is too long, or too much hardware is required, including a very-high-speed demultiplexer. A faster method is needed. The goal of this work is to provide circuits to time-tag pulses that arrive at a high rate using the hardwired logic in an FPGA - specifically the carry chain - to create what is (in effect) an analog delay line. High-speed pulses travel down the chain in a "wave." For instance, a pulse train has been demonstrated from a 1- GHz source reliably traveling down the carry chain. The size of the carry chain is over 10 ns in the time domain. Thus, multiple pulses will travel down the carry chain in a wave simultaneously. A register clocked by a low-skew clock takes a "snapshot" of the wave. Relatively simple logic can extract the pulses from the snapshot picture by detecting the transitions between logic states. The propagation delay of CMOS (complementary metal oxide semiconductor) logic circuits will differ and/or change as a result of temperature, voltage, age, radiation, and manufacturing variances. The time-to-digital conversion circuits can be calibrated with test signals, or the changes can be nulled by a separate on-die calibration channel, in a closed loop circuit.

Katz, Richard↗

Large Payload Ground Transportation and Test Considerations

During test and verification planning for the Altair lunar lander project, a National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) study team identified several ground transportation and test issues related to the large payload diameter. Although the entire Constellation Program-including Altair-has since been canceled, issues identified by the Altair project serve as important lessons learned for payloads greater than 7 m diameter being considered for NASA's new Space Launch System (SLS). A transportation feasibility study found that Altair's 8.97 m diameter Descent Module would not fit inside available aircraft. Although the Ascent Module cabin was only 2.35 m diameter, the long reaction control system booms extended nearly to the Descent Module diameter, making it equally unsuitable for air transportation without removing the booms and invalidating assembly workmanship screens or acceptance testing that had already been performed. Ground transportation of very large payloads over extended distances is not generally permitted by most states, so overland transportation alone would not be an option. Limited ground transportation to the nearest waterway may be possible, but water transportation could take as long as 66 days per production unit, depending on point of origin and acceptance test facility; transportation from the western United States would require transit through the Panama Canal to access the Kennedy Space Center launch site. Large payloads also pose acceptance test and ground processing challenges. Although propulsion, mechanical vibration, and reverberant acoustic test facilities at NASA's Plum Brook Station have been designed to accommodate large spacecraft, special handling and test work-arounds may be necessary, which could increase cost, schedule, and technical risk. Once at the launch site, there are no facilities currently capable of accommodating the combination of large payload size and hazardous processing such as hypergolic fuels, pyrotechnic devices, and high pressure gasses. Ironically, the limiting factor to a national heavy lift strategy may not be the rocket technology needed to throw a heavy payload, but rather the terrestrial infrastructure-roads, bridges, airframes, and buildings-necessary to transport, acceptance test, and process large spacecraft. Failure to carefully consider where and how large spacecraft are manufactured, tested, and launched could result in unforeseen cost to modify existing (or develop new) infrastructure, or incur additional risk due to increased handling operations or eliminating key verifications.

Rucker, Michelle A.↗

Large Payload Ground Transportation and Test Considerations

Many spacecraft concepts under consideration by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA’s) Evolvable Mars Campaign take advantage of a Space Launch System payload shroud that may be 8 to 10 meters in diameter. Large payloads can theoretically save cost by reducing the number of launches needed--but only if it is possible to build, test, and transport a large payload to the launch site in the first place. Analysis performed previously for the Altair project identified several transportation and test issues with an 8.973 meters diameter payload. Although the entire Constellation Program—including Altair—has since been canceled, these issues serve as important lessons learned for spacecraft designers and program managers considering large payloads for future programs. A transportation feasibility study found that, even broken up into an Ascent and Descent Module, the Altair spacecraft would not fit inside available aircraft. Ground transportation of such large payloads over extended distances is not generally permitted, so overland transportation alone would not be an option. Limited ground transportation to the nearest waterway may be possible, but water transportation could take as long as 67 days per production unit, depending on point of origin and acceptance test facility; transportation from the western United States would require transit through the Panama Canal to access the Kennedy Space Center launch site. Large payloads also pose acceptance test and ground processing challenges. Although propulsion, mechanical vibration, and reverberant acoustic test facilities at NASA’s Plum Brook Station have been designed to accommodate large spacecraft, special handling and test work-arounds may be necessary, which could increase cost, schedule, and technical risk. Once at the launch site, there are no facilities currently capable of accommodating the combination of large payload size and hazardous processing such as hypergolic fuels, pyrotechnic devices, and high pressure gasses. Ironically, the limiting factor to a national heavy lift strategy may not be the rocket technology needed to throw a heavy payload, but rather the terrestrial infrastructure—roads, bridges, airframes, and buildings—necessary to transport, acceptance test, and process large spacecraft. Failure to carefully consider where and how large spacecraft are manufactured, tested, and launched could result in unforeseen cost to modify existing (or develop new) infrastructure, or incur additional risk due to increased handling operations or eliminating key verifications. Although this paper focuses on the canceled Altair spacecraft as a case study, the issues identified here have wide applicability to other large payloads, including concepts under consideration for NASA’s Evolvable Mars Campaign.

Rucker, Michelle A.↗

Habitable Climate Scenarios for Proxima Centauri B with a Dynamic Ocean

The nearby exoplanet Proxima Centauri b will be a prime future target for characterization, despite questions about its retention of water. Climate models with static oceans suggest that Proxima b could harbor a small dayside surface ocean despite its weak instellation. We present the first climate simulations of Proxima b with a dynamic ocean. We find that an ocean-covered Proxima b could have a much broader area of surface liquid water but at much colder temperatures than previously suggested, due to ocean heat transport and/or depression of the freezing point by salinity. Elevated greenhouse gas concentrations do not necessarily produce more open ocean because of dynamic regime transitions between a state with an equatorial Rossby-Kelvin wave pattern and a state with a day-night circulation. For an evolutionary path leading to a highly saline ocean, Proxima b could be an inhabited, mostly open ocean planet with halophilic life. A fresh water ocean produces a smaller liquid region than does an Earth salinity ocean. An ocean planet in 3:2 spin-orbit resonance has a permanent tropical waterbelt for moderate eccentricity. A larger vs. smaller area of surface liquid water for similar equilibrium temperature may be distinguishable using the amplitude of the thermal phase curve. Simulations of Proxima Centauri b may be a model for the habitability of weakly irradiated planets orbiting slightly cooler or warmer stars, e.g., in the TRAPPIST-1, LHS 1140, GJ 273, and GJ 3293 systems.

Aquaplanet↗

Microwave properties of YBa2Cu3O(7-delta) high-transition-temperature superconducting thin films measured by the power transmission method

The microwave response of YBa2Cu3O(7-delta) superconducting thin films deposited on LaAlO3, MgO, YSZ, and LaGaO3 substrates are studied. It is found that the microwave transmission properties are very weakly dependent on temperature in the normal state but change drastically upon transition to the superconducting state. In particular, the transmission decreases and there is a negative phase shift with respect to the phase at room temperature when the sample is cooled through its transition temperature. The magnetic penetration depth for all the films was determined from the surface reactance of the films. The microwave complex conductivity is determined in both the normal and the superconducting state. It is observed that both sigma1 and sigma2 increase in transition to the superconducting state. The surface resistivity is calculated for all the films.

Miranda, F. A.↗

Relaxation and frequency shifts in the ground state of Rb-85

Results are presented on the relaxation and frequency shifts measured for the 0-0 transition of the ground state of Rb-85 at 3.03 GHz in various physical environments. These results include data on spin-exchange, buffer-gas, and wall interactions.

Vanier, J.↗

Theoretical studies of solar-pumped lasers

Metallic vapor lasers of Na2 and Li2 are examined as solar energy converters. The absorbed photons cause transitions to vibrational-rotational levels in an upper electronic state. With broad band absorption the resultant levels can have quantum numbers considerably higher than the upper lasing level. The excited molecule then relaxes to the upper lasing level which is one of the lower vibrational levels in the upper electronic state. The relaxation occurs from collisions, provided the molecule is not quenched into the ground level electronic state. Lasing occurs with a transition to a vibrational level in the lower electronic state. Rough estimates of solar power efficiencies are 1 percent for Na2 and probably a similar figure for Li2. The nondissociative lasers from a family distinct from materials which dissociate to yield an excited atom.

Harries, W. L.↗

Atomic oxygen fluorescence excitation using a Raman-shifted, tunable ArF-excimer laser

A novel method for exciting the two-photon, 2p3 3p 3P left arrow 2p4 3P atomic oxygen transition is reported. The transition to the upper state is achieved through the combined absorption of photons from the second and third Stokes order pulses of an ArF-excimer laser that is wavelength-shifted by the use of deuterium Raman cell. All three transitions from the ground electronic state of the oxygen atom lie within the tuning range of the Raman-shifted ArF laser. The available pulse energy from this laser configuration is comparable to that of commercially available Nd:YAG-pumped dye laser systems operated at 226 nm.

Fletcher, D. G.↗

The dispersed fluorescence spectrum of NaAr - Ground and excited state potential curves

Potential curves for the ground state and the first excited state of NaAr were determined. The van der Waals molecule NaAr was prepared by supersonic free jet expansion of a mixture of sodium, argon, and helium. The electronic transition from the ground state to the first excited state A2pi was excited by a tunable dye laser and the resulting fluorescence was studied. The dispersed fluorescence spectra show discrete and diffuse features, corresponding to transitions from excited vibrational levels of the A state to bound and unbound levels of the x state. The characteristic reflection structure in the bound-free spectra permits an unambiguous assignment of the vibrational numbering in the A state, and this assignment together with previously measured spectroscopic constants are used to calculate the potential curve of the A state. The discrete structure in the fluorescence spectra is used to determine the potential curve of the x state in the well region, and the repulsive part of the X curve is then deduced through trial-and-error simulation of the bound-free spectra.

Tellinghuisen, J.↗

Theoretical study of the N2(+) Meinel system

Atomic natural orbital Gaussian basis sets and large complete-active-space self-consistent field/multireference configuration-interaction wave functions are used to determine the potential curves for the X 2Sigma(+) sub g and A 2Pi sub u states of N2(+). The dependence of the electronic transition moment between the two states on internuclear distance is accurately determined, and is shown to differ significantly from previous determinations. These theoretically determined lifetimes agree with experimental time-of-flight data within stated experimental error bars.

Langhoff, Stephen R.↗

Technologies for Non-Destructive Evaluation of Surfaces and Thin Coating

A study was made on two commercially available terbium-doped silicate glasses. There is an increased interest in silicate glasses doped with rare-earth ions for use in high-energy particle detection and radiographic applications. These glasses are of interest due to the fact that they can be formed into small fiber sensors; a property that can be used to increase the spatial resolution of a detection system. Following absorption of radiation, the terbium ions become excited and then emit photons via 4f-4f electronic transitions as they relax back to the ground state. The lifetime of these transitions is on the order of milliseconds. A longer decay component lasting on the order of minutes has also been observed. While radiative transitions in the 4f shell of rare-earth ions are generally well understood by the Judd-Olfelt theory, the presence of a longer luminescence decay component is not. Experimental evidence that the long decay component is due, in part, to the thermal release of trapped charge carriers will be presented. In addition, a theoretical model describing the time evolution of the radiation-induced luminescence will be presented.

Manos, Dennis M.↗

Time Evolution of Radiation-Induced Luminescence in Terbium-Doped Silicate Glass

A study was made on two commercially available terbium-doped silicate glasses. There is an increased interest in silicate glasses doped with rare-earth ions for use in high-energy particle detection and radiographic applications. These glasses are of interest due to the fact that they can be formed into small fiber sensors; a property that can be used to increase the spatial resolution of a detection system. Following absorption of radiation, the terbium ions become excited and then emit photons via 4f-4f electronic transitions as they relax back to the ground state. The lifetime of these transitions is on the order of milliseconds. A longer decay component lasting on the order of minutes has also been observed. While radiative transitions in the 4f shell of rare-earth ions are generally well understood by the Judd-Olfelt theory, the pr'esence of a longer luminescence decay component is not. Experimental evidence that the long decay component is due, in part, to the thermal release of trapped charge carriers will be presented. In addition, a theoretical model describing the time evolution of the radiation-induced luminescence will be presented.

West, Michael S.↗

Steady-State Characterization of Bacteriorhodopsin-D85N Photocycle

An operational characterization of the photocycle of the genetic mutant D85N of bacteriorhodopsin, BR-D85N, is presented. Steady-state bleach spectra and pump-probe absorbance data are obtained with thick hydrated films containing BR-D85N embedded in a gelatin host. Simple two- and three-state models are used to analyze the photocycle dynamics and extract relevant information such as pure-state absorption spectra, photochemical-transition quantum efficiencies, and thermal lifetimes of dominant states appearing in the photocycle, the knowledge of which should aid in the analysis of optical recording and retrieval of data in films incorporating this photochromic material. The remarkable characteristics of this material and their implications from the viewpoint of optical data storage and processing are discussed.

Timucin, Dogan A.↗

The rate parameters for coupled vibration-dissociation in a generalized SSH approximation

A theoretical study of vibrational excitations and dissociations of nitrogen undergoing a nonequilibrium relaxation process upon heating and cooling is reported. The rate coefficients for collisional induced vibrational transitions and transitions from a bound vibrational state into a dissociative state have been calculated using an extension of the theory originally proposed by Schwarz (SSH) et al. (1952). High-lying vibrational states and dissociative states were explicitly included but rotational energy transfer was neglected. The transition probabilities calculated from the SSH theory were fed into the master equation, which was integrated numerically to determine the population distribution of the vibrational states as well as bulk thermodynamic properties. The results show that: (1) the transition rates have a minimum near the middle of the bound vibrational levels, causing a bottleneck in the vibrational relaxation and dissociation rates; (2) high vibrational states are always in equilibrium with the dissociative state; (3) for the heating case, only the low vibrational states relax according to the Landau-Teller theory; (4) for the cooling case, vibrational relaxation cannot be described by a rate equation; (5) Park's (1985, 1988) two-temperature model is approximately valid; and (6) the average vibrational energy removed in dissociation is about 30 percent of the dissociation energy.

Sharma, Surendra P.↗

A Markov chain model for reliability growth and decay

A mathematical model is developed to describe a complex system undergoing a sequence of trials in which there is interaction between the internal states of the system and the outcomes of the trials. For example, the model might describe a system undergoing testing that is redesigned after each failure. The basic assumptions for the model are that the state of the system after a trial depends probabilistically only on the state before the trial and on the outcome of the trial and that the outcome of a trial depends probabilistically only on the state of the system before the trial. It is shown that under these basic assumptions, the successive states form a Markov chain and the successive states and outcomes jointly form a Markov chain. General results are obtained for the transition probabilities, steady-state distributions, etc. A special case studied in detail describes a system that has two possible state ('repaired' and 'unrepaired') undergoing trials that have three possible outcomes ('inherent failure', 'assignable-cause' 'failure' and 'success'). For this model, the reliability function is computed explicitly and an optimal repair policy is obtained.

Siegrist, K.↗

RXTE Observation of Cygnus X-1: TIming Analysis - Report 2

We present timing analysis for a Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) observation of Cygnus X-1 in its hard/low state. This was the first RXTE observation of Cyg X-1 taken after it transited back to this state from its soft/high state. RXTE's large effective area, superior timing capabilities, and ability to obtain long, uninterrupted observations have allowed us to obtain measurements of the power spectral density (PSD), coherence function, and Fourier time lags to a decade lower in frequency and half a decade higher in frequency than typically was achieved with previous instruments. Notable aspects of our observations include a weak 0.005 Hz feature in the PSD coincident with a coherence recovery; a 'hardening' of the high-frequency PSD with increasing energy; a broad frequency range measurement of the coherence function, revealing rollovers from unity coherence at both low and high frequency; and an accurate determination of the Fourier time lags over two and a half decades in frequency. As has been noted in previous similar observations, the time delay is approximately proportional to f(exp -0.7), and at a fixed Fourier frequency the time delay of the hard X-rays compared to the softest energy channel tends to increase logarithmically with energy. Curiously, the 0.01-0.2 Hz coherence between the highest and lowest energy bands is actually slightly greater than the coherence between the second highest and lowest energy bands. We carefully describe all of the analysis techniques used in this paper, and we make comparisons of the data to general theoretical expectations. In a companion paper, we make specific comparisons to a Compton corona model that we have successfully used to describe the energy spectral data from this observation.

Nowak, Michael A.↗