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At least 559 records · Page 31

Evaluation of sensor placement algorithms for on-orbit identification of space platforms

Anticipating the construction of the international space station, on-orbit modal identification of space platforms through optimally placed accelerometers is an area of recent activity. Unwanted vibrations in the platform could affect the results of experiments which are planned. Therefore, it is important that sensors (accelerometers) be strategically placed to identify the amount and extent of these unwanted vibrations, and to validate the mathematical models used to predict the loads and dynamic response. Due to cost, installation, and data management issues, only a limited number of sensors will be available for placement. This work evaluates and compares four representative sensor placement algorithms for modal identification. Most of the sensor placement work to date has employed only numerical simulations for comparison. This work uses experimental data from a fully-instrumented truss structure which was one of a series of structures designed for research in dynamic scale model ground testing of large space structures at NASA Langley Research Center. Results from this comparison show that for this cantilevered structure, the algorithm based on Guyan reduction is rated slightly better than that based on Effective Independence.

Glassburn, Robin S.↗

Moving Towards a Common Ground and Flight Data Systems Architecture for NASA's Exploration Missions

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration has embarked on an ambitious effort to return man to the moon and then on to Mars. The Exploration Vision requires development of major new space and ground assets and poses challenges well beyond those faced by many of NASA's recent programs. New crewed vehicles must be developed. Compatible supply vehicles, surface mobility modules and robotic exploration capabilities will supplement the manned exploration vehicle. New launch systems will be developed as well as a new ground communications and control infrastructure. The development must take place in a cost-constrained environment and must advance along an aggressive schedule. Common solutions and system interoperability and will be critical to the successful development of the Exploration data systems for this wide variety of flight and ground elements. To this end, NASA has assembled a team of engineers from across the agency to identify the key challenges for Exploration data systems and to establish the most beneficial strategic approach to be followed. Key challenges and the planned NASA approach for flight and ground systems will be discussed in the paper. The described approaches will capitalize on new technologies, and will result in cross-program interoperability between spacecraft and ground systems, from multiple suppliers and agencies.

Rader. Steve↗

Managing Large Scale Project Analysis Teams through a Web Accessible Database

Large scale space programs analyze thousands of requirements while mitigating safety, performance, schedule, and cost risks. These efforts involve a variety of roles with interdependent use cases and goals. For example, study managers and facilitators identify ground-rules and assumptions for a collection of studies required for a program or project milestone. Task leaders derive product requirements from the ground rules and assumptions and describe activities to produce needed analytical products. Disciplined specialists produce the specified products and load results into a file management system. Organizational and project managers provide the personnel and funds to conduct the tasks. Each role has responsibilities to establish information linkages and provide status reports to management. Projects conduct design and analysis cycles to refine designs to meet the requirements and implement risk mitigation plans. At the program level, integrated design and analysis cycles studies are conducted to eliminate every 'to-be-determined' and develop plans to mitigate every risk. At the agency level, strategic studies analyze different approaches to exploration architectures and campaigns. This paper describes a web-accessible database developed by NASA to coordinate and manage tasks at three organizational levels. Other topics in this paper cover integration technologies and techniques for process modeling and enterprise architectures.

O'Neil, Daniel A.↗

Identifying Key Issues and Potential Solutions for Integrated Arrival, Departure, Surface Operations by Surveying Stakeholder Preferences

NASA's Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) collaborates with the FAA and industry to provide concepts and technologies that enhance the transition to the next-generation air-traffic management system (NextGen). To facilitate this collaboration, ARMD has a series of Airspace Technology Demonstration (ATD) sub-projects that develop, demonstrate, and transitions NASA technologies and concepts for implementation in the National Airspace System (NAS). The second of these sub-projects, ATD-2, is focused on the potential benefits to NAS stakeholders of integrated arrival, departure, surface (IADS) operations. To determine the project objectives and assess the benefits of a potential solution, NASA surveyed NAS stakeholders to understand the existing issues in arrival, departure, and surface operations, and the perceived benefits of better integrating these operations. NASA surveyed a broad cross-section of stakeholders representing the airlines, airports, air-navigation service providers, and industry providers of NAS tools. The survey indicated that improving the predictability of flight times (schedules) could improve efficiency in arrival, departure, and surface operations. Stakeholders also mentioned the need for better strategic and tactical information on traffic constraints as well as better information sharing and a coupled collaborative planning process that allows stakeholders to coordinate IADS operations. To assess the impact of a potential solution, NASA sketched an initial departure scheduling concept and assessed its viability by surveying a select group of stakeholders for a second time. The objective of the departure scheduler was to enable flights to move continuously from gate to cruise with minimal interruption in a busy metroplex airspace environment using strategic and tactical scheduling enhanced by collaborative planning between airlines and service providers. The stakeholders agreed that this departure concept could improve schedule predictability and suggested several key attributes that were necessary to make the concept successful. The goals and objectives of the planned ATD-2 sub-project will incorporate the results of this stakeholder feedback.

integrated arrival/departure/surface operations↗

Confidence-Based Buffer for Strategic Deconfliction with Probabilistic Operational Intent

This paper presents a methodology to expand the 95% confidence level of the elliptical geometry given by Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) operators planning to fly Beyond Visual Line of Sight (BVLOS) to any confidence level before being fed to the strategic deconfliction (SD) module, effectively increasing the separation buffer between Operational Intents (OIs). To assess the performance of this approach, it is integrated within an adaptation of the Rolling Horizon with K-Position Search volume-based strategic deconfliction approach, previously developed at NASA Ames, preventing the 4D overlapping of OIs shaped by ellipses instead of traditional blocks. Safety and efficiency metrics are evaluated through the deconfliction of four simulated package delivery route network structures across the San Francisco Metropolitan Area with increasing numbers of crossing waypoints (network complexity). Safety assessment entails the in-house creation of a metric to quantify collision occurrences per flight hour based on the frequency at which the probabilistic operational volume segments are sampled, whereas efficiency is measured using ground delay. Results indicate that the largest buffer growth occurs when increasing the confidence level beyond 99.9% and demonstrate the negative impact of network complexity on both metrics, regardless of the OI geometry. Further, the ellipse-based SD adaptation more accurately estimates temporal separation at crossings, allowing deconflicted vehicles to be closer together. It is concluded that the proposed methodology enables the desired confidence level to serve as an effective controller of buffer size.

strategic deconfliction↗

Confidence-Based Buffer for Strategic Deconfliction with Probabilistic Operational Intent

This paper presents a methodology to expand the 95% confidence level of the elliptical geometry given by Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) operators planning to fly Beyond Visual Line of Sight (BVLOS) to any confidence level before being fed to the strategic deconfliction (SD) module, effectively increasing the separation buffer between Operational Intents (OIs). To assess the performance of this approach, it is integrated within an adaptation of the Rolling Horizon with K-Position Search volume-based strategic deconfliction approach, previously developed at NASA Ames, preventing the 4D overlapping of OIs shaped by ellipses instead of traditional blocks. Safety and efficiency metrics are evaluated through the deconfliction of four simulated package delivery route network structures across the San Francisco Metropolitan Area with increasing numbers of crossing waypoints (network complexity). Safety assessment entails the in-house creation of a metric to quantify collision occurrences per flight hour based on the frequency at which the probabilistic operational volume segments are sampled, whereas efficiency is measured using ground delay. Results indicate that the largest buffer growth occurs when increasing the confidence level beyond 99.9% and demonstrate the negative impact of network complexity on both metrics, regardless of the OI geometry. Further, the ellipse-based SD adaptation more accurately estimates temporal separation at crossings, allowing deconflicted vehicles to be closer together. It is concluded that the proposed methodology enables the desired confidence level to serve as an effective controller of buffer size.

safety↗

A Comparison of Probabilistic and Deterministic Campaign Analysis for Human Space Exploration

Human space exploration is by its very nature an uncertain endeavor. Vehicle reliability, technology development risk, budgetary uncertainty, and launch uncertainty all contribute to stochasticity in an exploration scenario. However, traditional strategic analysis has been done in a deterministic manner, analyzing and optimizing the performance of a series of planned missions. History has shown that exploration scenarios rarely follow such a planned schedule. This paper describes a methodology to integrate deterministic and probabilistic analysis of scenarios in support of human space exploration. Probabilistic strategic analysis is used to simulate "possible" scenario outcomes, based upon the likelihood of occurrence of certain events and a set of pre-determined contingency rules. The results of the probabilistic analysis are compared to the nominal results from the deterministic analysis to evaluate the robustness of the scenario to adverse events and to test and optimize contingency planning.

Merrill, R. Gabe↗

Aeroassist Technology Planning for Exploration

Now that the International Space Station is undergoing assembly, NASA is strategizing about the next logical exploration strategy for robotic missions and the next destination for humans. NASA's current efforts are in developing technologies that will both aid the robotic exploration strategy and make human flight to other celestial bodies both safe and affordable. One of these enabling technologies for future robotic and human exploration missions is aeroassist. This paper will (1) define aeroassist, (2) explain the benefits and uses of aeroassist, and (3) describe a method, currently used by the NASA Aeroassist Working Group, by which widely geographically distributed teams can assemble, present, use, and archive technology information.

Munk, Michelle M.↗

Lunar Resource Assessment: Strategies for Surface Exploration

Use of the indigenous resources of space to support long-term human presence is an essential element of the settlement of other planetary bodies. We are in a very early stage of understanding exactly how and under what circumstances space resources will become important. The materials and processes to recover them that we now think are critical may not ultimately be the raison d'etre for a resource utilization program. However, the need for strategic thinking proceeds in parallel with efforts to implement such plans and it is not too soon to begin thinking how we could and should use the abundant resources of materials and energy available from the Moon. The following commodities from the Moon are discussed: (1) bulk regolith, for shielding and construction on the lunar surface (ultimately for export to human-tended stations in Earth-Moon space), and (2) oxygen and hydrogen, for propellant and life support.

Spudis, Paul D.↗

Estimating the costs of human space exploration

The plan for NASA's new exploration initiative has the following strategic themes: (1) incremental, logical evolutionary development; (2) economic viability; and (3) excellence in management. The cost estimation process is involved with all of these themes and they are completely dependent upon the engineering cost estimator for success. The purpose is to articulate the issues associated with beginning this major new government initiative, to show how NASA intends to resolve them, and finally to demonstrate the vital importance of a leadership role by the cost estimation community.

Mandell, Humboldt C., Jr.↗

2007 Ikhana Western States and Southern California Emergency UAS Fire Missions

Four demonstration and four emergency fire imaging missions completed: a) Thermal infrared imagery delivered in near real-time (5 to 15 minutes) to: 1) SoCal Emergency: FEMA, NIFC, NorthCom, California EOC; 2) Demo Flights: NIFC, Individual Fire Incident Commands. Imagery used for tactical and strategic decision making. Air Traffic Control gave excellent support. Mission plans flown in reverse. Real time requests for revisits of active fires. Added new fire during mission. Moved fire loiter points as fires moved. Real-time reroute around thunderstorm activity. Pre & Post flight telecons with FAA were held to review mission and discuss operational improvements. No issues with air traffic control during the 8 fire missions flown.

Cobleigh, Brent↗

Toward Malaria Risk Prediction in Afghanistan Using Remote Sensing

Malaria causes more than one million deaths every year worldwide, with most of the mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa. It is also a significant public health concern in Afghanistan, with approximately 60% of the population, or nearly 14 million people, living in a malaria-endemic area. Malaria transmission has been shown to be dependent on a number of environmental and meteorological variables. For countries in the tropics and the subtropics, rainfall is normally the most important variable, except for regions with high altitude where temperature may also be important. Afghanistan s diverse landscape contributes to the heterogeneous malaria distribution. Understanding the environmental effects on malaria transmission is essential to the effective control of malaria in Afghanistan. Provincial malaria data gathered by Health Posts in 23 provinces during 2004-2007 are used in this study. Remotely sensed geophysical parameters, including precipitation from TRMM, and surface temperature and vegetation index from MODIS are used to derive the empirical relationship between malaria cases and these geophysical parameters. Both neural network methods and regression analyses are used to examine the environmental dependency of malaria transmission. And the trained models are used for predicting future transmission. While neural network methods are intrinsically more adaptive for nonlinear relationship, the regression approach lends itself in providing statistical significance measures. Our results indicate that NDVI is the strongest predictor. This reflects the role of irrigation, instead of precipitation, in Afghanistan for agricultural production. The second strongest prediction is surface temperature. Precipitation is not shown as a significant predictor, contrary to other malarious countries in the tropics or subtropics. With the regression approach, the malaria time series are modelled well, with average R2 of 0.845. For cumulative 6-month prediction of malaria cases, the average provincial accuracy reaches 91%. The developed predictive and early warning capabilities support the Third Strategic Approach of the WHO EMRO Malaria Control and Elimination Plan.

Safi, N.↗

Autonomous Operations Planner: A Flexible Platform for Research in Flight-Deck Support for Airborne Self-Separation

The Autonomous Operations Planner (AOP), developed by NASA, is a flexible and powerful prototype of a flight-deck automation system to support self-separation of aircraft. The AOP incorporates a variety of algorithms to detect and resolve conflicts between the trajectories of its own aircraft and traffic aircraft while meeting route constraints such as required times of arrival and avoiding airspace hazards such as convective weather and restricted airspace. This integrated suite of algorithms provides flight crew support for strategic and tactical conflict resolutions and conflict-free trajectory planning while en route. The AOP has supported an extensive set of experiments covering various conditions and variations on the self-separation concept, yielding insight into the system s design and resolving various challenges encountered in the exploration of the concept. The design of the AOP will enable it to continue to evolve and support experimentation as the self-separation concept is refined.

Karr, David A.↗

A Framework for the Cross-Sectoral Integration of Multi-Model Impact Projections: Land Use Decisions Under Climate Impacts Uncertainties

Climate change and its impacts already pose considerable challenges for societies that will further increase with global warming (IPCC, 2014a, b). Uncertainties of the climatic response to greenhouse gas emissions include the potential passing of large-scale tipping points (e.g. Lenton et al., 2008; Levermann et al., 2012; Schellnhuber, 2010) and changes in extreme meteorological events (Field et al., 2012) with complex impacts on societies (Hallegatte et al., 2013). Thus climate change mitigation is considered a necessary societal response for avoiding uncontrollable impacts (Conference of the Parties, 2010). On the other hand, large-scale climate change mitigation itself implies fundamental changes in, for example, the global energy system. The associated challenges come on top of others that derive from equally important ethical imperatives like the fulfilment of increasing food demand that may draw on the same resources. For example, ensuring food security for a growing population may require an expansion of cropland, thereby reducing natural carbon sinks or the area available for bio-energy production. So far, available studies addressing this problem have relied on individual impact models, ignoring uncertainty in crop model and biome model projections. Here, we propose a probabilistic decision framework that allows for an evaluation of agricultural management and mitigation options in a multi-impactmodel setting. Based on simulations generated within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), we outline how cross-sectorally consistent multi-model impact simulations could be used to generate the information required for robust decision making. Using an illustrative future land use pattern, we discuss the trade-off between potential gains in crop production and associated losses in natural carbon sinks in the new multiple crop- and biome-model setting. In addition, crop and water model simulations are combined to explore irrigation increases as one possible measure of agricultural intensification that could limit the expansion of cropland required in response to climate change and growing food demand. This example shows that current impact model uncertainties pose an important challenge to long-term mitigation planning and must not be ignored in long-term strategic decision making

farmlands↗

Analyst-centered models for systems design, analysis, and development

Much has been written about the possible use of Expert Systems (ES) technology for strategic defense system applications, particularly for battle management algorithms and mission planning. It is proposed that ES (or more accurately, Knowledge Based System (KBS)) technology can be used in situations for which no human expert exists, namely to create design and analysis environments that allow an analyst to rapidly pose many different possible problem resolutions in game like fashion and to then work through the solution space in search of the optimal solution. Portions of such an environment exist for expensive AI hardware/software combinations such as the Xerox LOOPS and Intellicorp KEE systems. Efforts are discussed to build an analyst centered model (ACM) using an ES programming environment, ExperOPS5 for a simple missile system tradeoff study. By analyst centered, it is meant that the focus of learning is for the benefit of the analyst, not the model. The model's environment allows the analyst to pose a variety of what if questions without resorting to programming changes. Although not an ES per se, the ACM would allow for a design and analysis environment that is much superior to that of current technologies.

Bukley, A. P.↗

The Mars Exploration Rover/Collaborative Information Portal

Astrology has long argued that the alignment of the planets governs human affairs. Science usually scoffs at this. There is, however, an important exception: sending spacecraft for planetary exploration. In late May and early June, 2003, Mars will be in position for Earth launch. Two Mars Exploration Rovers (MER) will rocket towards the red planet. The rovers will perform a series of geological and meteorological experiments, seeking to examine geological evidence for water and conditions once favorable for life. Back on earth, a small army of surface operations staff will work to keep the rovers running, sending directions for each day's operations and receiving the files encoding the outputs of the Rover's six instruments. (Mars is twenty light minutes from Earth. The rovers must be robots.) The fundamental purpose of the project is, after all, Science. Scientists have experiments they want to run. Ideally, scientists want to be immediately notified when the data products of their experiments have been received, so that they can examine their data and (collaboratively) deduce results. Mars is an unpredictable environment. We may issue commands to the rovers but there is considerable uncertainty in how the commands will be executed and whether what the rovers sense will be worthy of further pursuit. The steps of what is, to a scientist, conceptually an individual experiment may be scattered over a large number of activities. While the scientific staff has an overall strategic idea of what it would like to accomplish, activities are planned daily. The data and surprises of the previous day need to be integrated into the negotiations for the next day's activities, all synchronized to a schedule of transmission windows . Negotiations is the operative term, as different scientists want the resources to run possibly incompatible experiments. Many meetings plan each day's activities.

Walton, Joan↗

Autonomous Space Shuttle

The continued assembly and operation of the International Space Station (ISS) is the cornerstone within NASA's overall Strategic P an. As indicated in NASA's Integrated Space Transportation Plan (ISTP), the International Space Station requires Shuttle to fly through at least the middle of the next decade to complete assembly of the Station, provide crew transport, and to provide heavy lift up and down mass capability. The ISTP reflects a tight coupling among the Station, Shuttle, and OSP programs to support our Nation's space goal . While the Shuttle is a critical component of this ISTP, there is a new emphasis for the need to achieve greater efficiency and safety in transporting crews to and from the Space Station. This need is being addressed through the Orbital Space Plane (OSP) Program. However, the OSP is being designed to "complement" the Shuttle as the primary means for crew transfer, and will not replace all the Shuttle's capabilities. The unique heavy lift capabilities of the Space Shuttle is essential for both ISS, as well as other potential missions extending beyond low Earth orbit. One concept under discussion to better fulfill this role of a heavy lift carrier, is the transformation of the Shuttle to an "un-piloted" autonomous system. This concept would eliminate the loss of crew risk, while providing a substantial increase in payload to orbit capability. Using the guidelines reflected in the NASA ISTP, the autonomous Shuttle a simplified concept of operations can be described as; "a re-supply of cargo to the ISS through the use of an un-piloted Shuttle vehicle from launch through landing". Although this is the primary mission profile, the other major consideration in developing an autonomous Shuttle is maintaining a crew transportation capability to ISS as an assured human access to space capability.

Siders, Jeffrey A.↗

Pioneering space exploration: The JSC strategy

The framework that JCS's senior management will use to guide effective decision making to achieve our long-rang goals while soliciting inputs from all levels of JSC is presented. This plan was developed to allow us to meet head-on the responsibilities and challenges we have today while assuring that we are well prepared to meet the opportunities and challenges of tomorrow. The JSC strategy is closely aligned with the overall strategic direction currently being defined by NASA. One of our major goals was to keep our plan and process tightly focused but flexible enough so that as our national interests in space exploration evolve, so can JSC.

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