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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Freight Analysis Framework Version 5 (FAF5) Base Year 2017 Data Development Technical Report

The Freight Analysis Framework (FAF) integrates data from a variety of sources to create a comprehensive national picture of freight movements among states and major metropolitan areas by all modes of transportation. The latest of this data series is FAF5, which is the fifth generation FAF and is benchmarked on Commodity Flow Survey (CFS) 2017. Except for FAF1 that provided estimates for truck, rail, and water tonnage for calendar year 1998, later generations of FAF (FAF2 through FAF5) were built based on their benchmark year CFS data, for 2002, 2007, 2012, and 2017 respectively. The FAF is produced under a partnership between Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) and Federal Highway Administration (FHWA). As a major data product of the FAF program, the FAF regional database provides a national picture of freight flows to, from, and within the United States (among regions and states), by commodity and mode for the base year, as well as for forecasts up to 30 years into the future in a 5-year interval. Additional FAF data products also include FAF network flows database, where truck movements are routed onto the national highway network, estimates of annual projections, and synchronized historical data series. This report is a technical document prepared to describe the data sources and methodologies applied in the process of building the FAF5 base-year 2017 regional database, released as FAF5.0 in February 2021. This report offers a description of the diverse data sources and modeling methods used in constructing the base year FAF5 regional database. The FAF5 base-year database is used as the base for development of forecasts and for assignment of truck flows on highway network. Similarly, the FAF5 base-year database will be used as the base to generate FAF5 annual estimates. In addition to this report, users are encouraged to refer to the FAF5 User’s Guide, which provides basic information of the data, including definitions of the data attributes, information on how to access the data and tool, as well as detailed data dictionary and code tables.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying wind plant blockage under stable atmospheric conditions

Wind plant blockage reduces the wind velocity upstream undermining turbine performance for the first row of the plant. We assess how atmospheric stability modifies the induction zone of a wind plant in flat terrain. We also explore different approaches to quantifying the magnitude and extent of the induction zone from field-like observations. To investigate the influence from atmospheric stability, we compare simulations of two stable boundary layers using the Weather Research and Forecasting model in large-eddy simulation mode, representing wind turbines using the generalized actuator disk approach. We find a faster cooling rate at the surface, which produces a stronger stably stratified boundary layer, amplifies the induction zone of both an isolated turbine and of a large wind plant. A statistical analysis on the hub-height wind speed field shows wind slowdowns only extend far upstream (up to 15D) of a wind plant in strong stable boundary layers. To evaluate different ways of measuring wind plant blockage from field-like observations, we consider various ways of estimating the freestream velocity upstream of the plant. Sampling a large area upstream is the most accurate approach to estimating the freestream conditions, and thus of measuring the blockage effect. Also, the choice of sampling method may induce errors of the same order as the velocity deficit in the induction zone.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1994

Advanced data assimilation in strongly nonlinear dynamical systems

Advanced data assimilation methods are applied to simple but highly nonlinear problems. The dynamical systems studied here are the stochastically forced double well and the Lorenz model. In both systems, linear approximation of the dynamics about the critical points near which regime transitions occur is not always sufficient to track their occurrence or nonoccurrence. Straightforward application of the extended Kalman filter yields mixed results. The ability of the extended Kalman filter to track transitions of the double-well system from one stable critical point to the other depends on the frequency and accuracy of the observations relative to the mean-square amplitude of the stochastic forcing. The ability of the filter to track the chaotic trajectories of the Lorenz model is limited to short times, as is the ability of strong-constraint variational methods. Examples are given to illustrate the difficulties involved, and qualitative explanations for these difficulties are provided. Three generalizations of the extended Kalman filter are described. The first is based on inspection of the innovation sequence, that is, the successive differences between observations and forecasts; it works very well for the double-well problem. The second, an extension to fourth-order moments, yields excellent results for the Lorenz model but will be unwieldy when applied to models with high-dimensional state spaces. A third, more practical method--based on an empirical statistical model derived from a Monte Carlo simulation--is formulated, and shown to work very well. Weak-constraint methods can be made to perform satisfactorily in the context of these simple models, but such methods do not seem to generalize easily to practical models of the atmosphere and ocean. In particular, it is shown that the equations derived in the weak variational formulation are difficult to solve conveniently for large systems.

Miller, Robert N.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Efficient Methods to Assimilate Satellite Retrievals Based on Information Content: Suboptimal Retrieval Assimilation - Part 2

One of the outstanding problems in data assimilation has been and continues to be how best to utilize satellite data while balancing the tradeoff between accuracy and computational cost. A number of weather prediction centers have recently achieved remarkable success in improving their forecast skill by changing the method by which satellite data are assimilated into the forecast model from the traditional approach of assimilating retrievals to the direct assimilation of radiances in a variational framework. The operational implementation of such a substantial change in methodology involves a great number of technical details, e.g., pertaining to quality control procedures, systematic error correction techniques, and tuning of the statistical parameters in the analysis algorithm. Although there are clear theoretical advantages to the direct radiance assimilation approach, it is not obvious at all to what extent the improvements that have been obtained so far can be attributed to the change in methodology, or to various technical aspects of the implementation. The issue is of interest because retrieval assimilation retains many practical and logistical advantages which may become even more significant in the near future when increasingly high-volume data sources become available. The central question we address here is: how much improvement can we expect from assimilating radiances rather than retrievals, all other things being equal? We compare the two approaches in a simplified one-dimensional theoretical framework, in which problems related to quality control and systematic error correction are conveniently absent. By assuming a perfect radiative transfer model and perfect knowledge of radiance and background error covariances, we are able to formulate a nonlinear local error analysis for each assimilation method. Direct radiance assimilation is optimal in this idealized context, while the traditional method of assimilating retrievals is suboptimal because it ignores the cross-covariances between background errors and retrieval errors. We show that interactive retrieval assimilation (where the same background used for assimilation is also used in the retrieval step) is equivalent to direct assimilation of radiances with suboptimal analysis weights. We illustrate and extend these theoretical arguments with several one-dimensional assimilation experiments, where we estimate vertical atmospheric profiles using simulated data from both the High-resolution InfraRed Sounder 2 (HIRS2) and the future Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS).

Joiner, J.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Operational Assimilation of GOES Data into a Mesoscale Model

A technique has been developed for assimilating GOES-derived skin temperature tendencies and insolation into the surface energy budget equation of a mesoscale model so that the simulated rate of temperature change closely agrees with the satellite observations. A critical assumption of the technique is that the availability of moisture (either from the soil or vegetation) is the least known term in the model's surface energy budget. Therefore, the simulated latent heat flux, which is a function of surface moisture availability, is adjusted based upon differences between the modeled and satellite- observed skin temperature tendencies. An advantage of this technique is that satellite temperature tendencies are assimilated in an energetically consistent manner that avoids energy imbalances and surface stability problems that arise from direct assimilation of surface shelter temperatures. The fact that the rate of change of the satellite skin temperature is used rather than the absolute temperature means that sensor calibration is not as critical. The technique has been employed on a semi-operational basis at the Global Hydrology and Climate Center (GHCC) within the Penn State/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) since 1 November 1998. We performed the assimilation on a model grid centered over the Southeastern US. In addition, a control run without assimilation was performed to provide insight into the performance of the assimilation technique. Bulk verification statistics (BIAS and RMSE) of surface air temperature and relative humidity of more than 250 case days has been performed to date. Results show that assimilation of the satellite data results reduces both the bias and RMSE for simulations of surface air temperature and relative humidity. We are working with forecasters at the National Weather Service Forecast Office located in Birmingham, AL to evaluate the impact of the assimilation on precipitation forecasts. In addition, work is currently underway to determine the ability of both the assimilation technique and Early Eta to sense the significant changes that occur in both leaf expansion and soil moisture conditions during the Spring-Summer of 1999. This will be accomplished via examination of the simulated surface energy budgets from both modeling systems.

Lapenta, William↗
NASA NTRS2003

Viewing Atmospheric Aerosols from the MODIS Satellite Sensor

The MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) currently aboard both the Terra and Aqua satellites produces a suite of products designed to characterize global aerosol distribution, optical thickness and particle size. Never before has a space-borne instrument been able to provide such detailed information, complementing field and modeling efforts to produce a comprehensive picture of aerosol characteristics. The three years of Terra-MODIS data have been validated by comparing with co-located AERONET observations of aerosol optical thickness and derivations of aerosol size parameters. Some 8000 comparison points located at 133 AERONET sites around the globe show that the MODIS aerosol optical thickness retrievals are accurate to within the pre-launch expectations, on a global basis. The global statistics, however, can hide local biases in the product. Some of these biases will be discussed. Nevertheless, the products can be used and are currently being used to answer some pressing questions concerning aerosol radiative forcing, aerosol-cloud interaction, estimating aerosol sources and height of transport, and Air Quality forecasting. A survey of current applications of MODIS aerosol products will be presented.

Remer, L.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Neural Network-Based Electric Vehicle Range Prediction for Smart Charging Optimization

Range prediction is a standard feature in most modern road vehicles, allowing drivers to make informed decisions about when to refuel. Most vehicles make range predictions through data- or model-driven means, monitoring the average fuel consumption rate or using a tuned vehicle model to predict fuel consumption. The uncertainty of future driving conditions makes the range prediction problem challenging, particularly for less pervasive battery electric vehicles (BEV). Most contemporary machine learning-based methods attempt to forecast the battery SOC discharge profile to predict vehicle range. In this work, we propose a novel approach using two recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to predict the remaining range of BEVs and the minimum charge required to safely complete a trip. Each RNN has two outputs that can be used for statistical analysis to account for uncertainties; the first loss function leads to mean and variance estimation (MVE), while the second results in bounded interval estimation (BIE). These outputs of the proposed RNNs are then used to predict the probability of a vehicle completing a given trip without charging, or if charging is needed, the remaining range and minimum charging required to finish the trip with high probability. Training data was generated using a low-order physics model to estimate vehicle energy consumption from historical drive cycle data collected from medium-duty last-mile delivery vehicles. Here, the proposed method demonstrated high accuracy in the presence of day-to-day route variability, with the root-mean-square error (RMSE) below 6% for both RNN models.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS1996

SSM/I and ECMWF Wind Vector Comparison

Wentz was the first to convincingly show that satellite microwave radiometers have the potential to measure the oceanic wind vector. The most compelling evidence for this conclusion was the monthly wind vector maps derived solely from a statistical analysis of Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) observations. In a qualitative sense, these maps clearly showed the general circulation over the world's oceans. In this report we take a closer look at the SSM/I monthly wind vector maps and compare them to European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) wind fields. This investigation leads both to an empirical comparison of SSM/I calculated wind vectors with ECMWF wind vectors, and to an examination of possible reasons that the SSM/I calculated wind vector direction would be inherently more reliable at some locations than others.

Wentz, Frank J.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Vertical Cloud Climatology During TC4 Derived from High-Altitude Aircraft Merged Lidar and Radar Profiles

Aircraft lidar works by shooting laser pulses toward the earth and recording the return time and intensity of any of the light returning to the aircraft after scattering off atmospheric particles and/or the Earth s surface. The scattered light signatures can be analyzed to tell the exact location of cloud and aerosol layers and, with the aid of a few optical assumptions, can be analyzed to retrieve estimates of optical properties such as atmospheric transparency. Radar works in a similar fashion except it sends pulses toward earth at a much larger wavelength than lidar. Radar records the return time and intensity of cloud or rain reflection returning to the aircraft. Lidar can measure scatter from optically thin cirrus and aerosol layers whose particles are too small for the radar to detect. Radar can provide reflection profiles through thick cloud layers of larger particles that lidar cannot penetrate. Only after merging the two instrument products can accurate measurements of the locations of all layers in the full atmospheric column be achieved. Accurate knowledge of the vertical distribution of clouds is important information for understanding the Earth/atmosphere radiative balance and for improving weather/climate forecast models. This paper describes one such merged data set developed from the Tropical Composition, Cloud and Climate Coupling (TC4) experiment based in Costa Rica in July-August 2007 using the nadir viewing Cloud Physics Lidar (CPL) and the Cloud Radar System (CRS) on board the NASA ER-2 aircraft. Statistics were developed concerning cloud probability through the atmospheric column and frequency of the number of cloud layers. These statistics were calculated for the full study area, four sub-regions, and over land compared to over ocean across all available flights. The results are valid for the TC4 experiment only, as preferred cloud patterns took priority during mission planning. The TC4 Study Area was a very cloudy region, with cloudy profiles occurring 94 percent of the time during the ER-2 flights. One to three cloud layers were common, with the average calculated at 2.03 layers per profile. The upper troposphere had a cloud frequency generally over 30%, reaching 42 percent near 13 km during the study. There were regional differences. The Caribbean was much clearer than the Pacific regions. Land had a much higher frequency of high clouds than ocean areas. One region just south and west of Panama had a high probability of clouds below 15 km altitude with the frequency never dropping below 25% and reaching a maximum of 60% at 11-13 km altitude. These cloud statistics will help characterize the cloud volume for TC4 scientists as they try to understand the complexities of the tropical atmosphere.

Hlavka, Dennis↗
NASA NTRS2009

Statistical Prediction of Solar Particle Event Frequency Based on the Measurements of Recent Solar Cycles for Acute Radiation Risk Analysis

Large solar particle events (SPEs) present significant acute radiation risks to the crew members during extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) or in lightly shielded space vehicles for space missions beyond the protection of the Earth's magnetic field. Acute radiation sickness (ARS) can impair performance and result in failure of the mission. Improved forecasting capability and/or early-warning systems and proper shielding solutions are required to stay within NASA's short-term dose limits. Exactly how to make use of observations of SPEs for predicting occurrence and size is a great challenge, because SPE occurrences themselves are random in nature even though the expected frequency of SPEs is strongly influenced by the time position within the solar activity cycle. Therefore, we developed a probabilistic model approach, where a cumulative expected occurrence curve of SPEs for a typical solar cycle was formed from a non-homogeneous Poisson process model fitted to a database of proton fluence measurements of SPEs that occurred during the past 5 solar cycles (19 - 23) and those of large SPEs identified from impulsive nitrate enhancements in polar ice. From the fitted model, the expected frequency of SPEs was estimated at any given proton fluence threshold (Phi(sub E)) with energy (E) >30 MeV during a defined space mission period. Corresponding Phi(sub E) (E=30, 60, and 100 MeV) fluence distributions were simulated with a random draw from a gamma distribution, and applied for SPE ARS risk analysis for a specific mission period. It has been found that the accurate prediction of deep-seated organ doses was more precisely predicted at high energies, Phi(sub 100), than at lower energies such as Phi(sub 30) or Phi(sub 60), because of the high penetration depth of high energy protons. Estimates of ARS are then described for 90th and 95th percentile events for several mission lengths and for several likely organ dose-rates. The ability to accurately measure high energy protons (50-300 MeV) in real-time is shown to be a crucial issue for crew protection.

Myung-Hee, Y. Kim↗
DOE OSTI2023

Deep Learning Parameterization of Vertical Wind Velocity Variability via Constrained Adversarial Training

Atmospheric models with typical resolution in the tenths of kilometers cannot resolve the dynamics of air parcel ascent, which varies on scales ranging from tens to hundreds of meters. Small-scale wind fluctuations are thus characterized by a subgrid distribution of vertical wind velocity W with standard deviation σ W . The parameterization of σ W is fundamental to the representation of aerosol–cloud interactions, yet it is poorly constrained. Using a novel deep learning technique, this work develops a new parameterization for σ W merging data from global storm-resolving model simulations, high-frequency retrievals of W , and climate reanalysis products. The parameterization reproduces the observed statistics of σ W and leverages learned physical relations from the model simulations to guide extrapolation beyond the observed domain. Incorporating observational data during the training phase was found to be critical for its performance. The parameterization can be applied online within large-scale atmospheric models, or offline using output from weather forecasting and reanalysis products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1985

The response of numerical weather prediction analysis systems to FGGE 2b data

An intercomparison of analyses of the main PGGE Level IIb data set is presented with three advanced analysis systems. The aims of the work are to estimate the extent and magnitude of the differences between the analyses, to identify the reasons for the differences, and finally to estimate the significance of the differences. Extratropical analyses only are considered. Objective evaluations of analysis quality, such as fit to observations, statistics of analysis differences, and mean fields are discussed. In addition, substantial emphasis is placed on subjective evaluation of a series of case studies that were selected to illustrate the importance of different aspects of the analysis procedures, such as quality control, data selection, resolution, dynamical balance, and the role of the assimilating forecast model. In some cases, the forecast models are used as selective amplifiers of analysis differences to assist in deciding which analysis was more nearly correct in the treatment of particular data.

Hollingsworth, A.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Rapid 500-mb cyclogenesis and anticyclogenesis

The process of intensification of 500-mb cyclones and anticyclones as represented in NMC's 500-mb analyses is investigated, using a sample of records for 500-mb cyclones and anticyclones drawn from the cool season of September 1983 through May 1984 to determine the statistically large intensification rates and thus to establish criteria for rapid intensification. From the catalog of all rapidly intensifying 500-mb cyclones and anticyclones defined by these criteria, seasonal and geographical frequency distributions of cyclogenesis and anticyclogenesis is constructed. It is shown that, for the data sample used in this analysis, the operational forecast models tend to underpredict rapid developments of 500-mb cyclones and anticyclones.

Alberta, Timothy L.↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: Large-scale velocity reconstruction with the kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect and DESI LRGs

The kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (kSZ) effect induces a non-zero density-density-temperature bispectrum, which we can use to reconstruct the large-scale velocity field from a combination of cosmic microwave background (CMB) and galaxy density measurements, in a procedure known as “kSZ velocity reconstruction”. This method has been forecast to constrain large-scale modes with future galaxy and CMB surveys, improving their measurement beyond what is possible with the galaxy surveys alone. Such measurements will enable tighter constraints on large-scale signals such as primordial non-Gaussianity, deviations from homogeneity, and modified gravity. In this work, we demonstrate a statistically significant measurement of kSZ velocity reconstruction for the first time, by applying quadratic estimators to the combination of the ACT DR6 CMB+kSZ map and the DESI LRG galaxies (with photometric redshifts) in order to reconstruct the velocity field. We do so using a formalism appropriate for the 2-dimensional projected galaxy fields that we use, which naturally incorporates the curved-sky effects important on the largest scales. We find evidence for the signal by cross-correlating with an external estimate of the velocity field from the spectroscopic BOSS survey and rejecting the null (no-kSZ) hypothesis at 3.8σ. Our work presents a first step towards the use of this observable for cosmological analyses.

Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect↗
DOE OSTI2025

Arctic extreme precipitation changes from 1980 to 2022 in response to sea ice decline and enhanced atmospheric rivers

Arctic extreme precipitation (EP) broadly impacts permafrost degradation, glacier and snow cover changes, and ice sheet mass balance as well as ecosystems. However, investigation of EP spatiotemporal variations over the Arctic remains challenging, and their primary drivers are still poorly understood. Performance estimation of three state-of-the-art reanalysis products (Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 (ERA-5), and Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2)) against gauge-based precipitation observations reveals that MERRA-2 outperforms other reanalysis for Arctic EP changes. Based on MERRA-2 data, both annual EP amount and occurrence days averaged over the Arctic show statistically significant positive trends during 1980–2022 (3.37 ± 1.03 mm dec −1 and 0.42 ± 0.17 d dec −1 , respectively), with the most pronounced increase in the autumn. Spatial heterogeneity in annual and seasonal EP trends is found across the Arctic, with the largest positive annual trends of 30 mm dec −1 over the Bering Sea and the Denmark Strait. The significant EP increase is closely associated with intensified atmospheric rivers (ARs) and widespread decline in sea ice concentration (SIC). Specially, SIC and ARs are responsible for 12% and 50% of Arctic EP inter-annual variance, respectively, while ARs directly contribute 28.3% of the total annual EP amounts. These findings explain the mechanistic controls on Arctic EP, providing critical insights for projecting polar weather and climate extremes and their impacts on the Arctic environment.

atmospheric rivers↗
DOE OSTI2021

Breaking the degeneracy between polarization efficiency and cosmological parameters in CMB experiments

Accurate cosmological parameter estimates using polarization data of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) put stringent requirements on map calibration, as highlighted in the recent results from the Planck satellite. In this paper, we point out that a model-dependent determination of polarization calibration can be achieved by the joint fit of the temperature-E-mode cross-power spectrum (TE) and E-mode auto-power spectrum (EE). This provides a valuable cross-check to band-averaged polarization efficiency measurements determined using other approaches. We demonstrate that, in ΛCDM, the combination of the TE and EE constrain polarization calibration with sub-percent uncertainty with Planck data and 2% uncertainty with sptpol data. We arrive at similar conclusions when extending ΛCDM to include the amplitude of lensing A L , the number of relativistic species N eff , or the sum of the neutrino masses Σm ν . Furthermore, the uncertainties on cosmological parameters are minimally impacted when marginalizing over polarization calibration, except, as can be expected, for the uncertainty on the amplitude of the primordial scalar power spectrum ln(10 10 A s ), which increases by 20–50%. However, this information can be fully recovered by adding temperature auto-power spectrum (TT) information. For current and future ground-based experiments, SPT-3G and CMB-S4, we forecast the cosmological parameter uncertainties to be minimally degraded when marginalizing over polarization calibration parameters. In addition, CMB-S4 could constrain its polarization calibration at the level of ~0.2% by combining TE and EE, and reach ~0.06% by also including TT. We therefore conclude that relying on calibrating against Planck polarization maps, whose statistical uncertainty is limited to ~0.5%, would be insufficient for upcoming experiments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Classification of Cloud Particle Imagery and Thermodynamics (COCPIT): A New Databasing Tool for the Characterization of Cloud Particle Images Captured During DOE Field Campaigns

The Department of Energy for decades has explored the earth system and atmosphere through research and deployment of in-situ and remote sensing platforms during field campaigns. Among these datasets exists a vast supply of cloud particle images that provide visual insight into the complex microphysics in the clouds that span our globe. The millions of images collected over decades of deployments provides a unique opportunity to further our understanding of our atmosphere down to the crystal size. This work over the past 5 years has sought to organize these images into digestible datasets that can then be used by scientists to further our understanding of microphysics. A machine learning model was developed that categorizes over 1.5 million images across 11 weather events with over 90% accuracy according to particle type. The database was then extended to include dimensional characteristics of the particle as well as co-location of environmental properties, such as temperature and water content. Then, to initialize the connection between these data and our understanding of how crystals form and grow, weather research and forecasting simulations were run to generate the growth histories of the classified crystals. This research culminates with 2 databases per event: (1) a database of all classified crystals and their dimensional and environmental properties and (2) simulated growth histories of each crystal. Finally, a user interface was created to allow researchers to explore data statistics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1974

Application of Markov chain theory to ASTP natural environment launch criteria at Kennedy Space Center

To aid the planning of the Apollo Soyuz Test Program (ASTP), certain natural environment statistical relationships are presented, based on Markov theory and empirical counts. The practical results are in terms of conditional probability of favorable and unfavorable launch conditions at Kennedy Space Center (KSC). They are based upon 15 years of recorded weather data which are analyzed under a set of natural environmental launch constraints. Three specific forecasting problems were treated: (1) the length of record of past weather which is useful to a prediction; (2) the effect of persistence in runs of favorable and unfavorable conditions; and (3) the forecasting of future weather in probabilistic terms.

Graves, M. E.↗