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At least 559 records · Page 31

Investigating the impact of environmental factors on West Nile virus human case prediction in Ontario, Canada

West Nile virus is the most common mosquito borne disease in North America and the leading cause of viral encephalitis. West Nile virus is primarily transmitted between birds and mosquitoes while humans are incidental, dead-end hosts. Climate change may increase the risk of human infections as climatic variables have been shown to affect the mosquito life cycle, biting rate, incubation period of the disease in mosquitoes, and bird migration patterns. We develop a zero-inflated Poisson model to investigate how human West Nile virus case counts vary with respect to mosquito abundance and infection rates, bird abundance, and other environmental covariates. We use a Bayesian paradigm to fit our model to data from 2010–2019 in Ontario, Canada. Our results show mosquito infection rate, temperature, precipitation, and crow abundance are positively correlated with human cases while NDVI and robin abundance are negatively correlated with human cases. We find the inclusion of spatial random effects allows for more accurate predictions, particularly in years where cases are higher. Our model is able to accurately predict the magnitude and timing of yearly West Nile virus outbreaks and could be a valuable tool for public health officials to implement prevention strategies to mitigate these outbreaks.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Limitations of Bin and Bulk Microphysics in Reproducing the Observed Spatial Structure of Light Precipitation

Abstract Coarse-gridded atmospheric models often account for subgrid-scale variability by specifying probability distribution functions (PDFs) of process rate inputs such as cloud and rainwater mixing ratios ( q c and q r , respectively). PDF parameters can be obtained from numerous sources: in situ observations, ground- or space-based remote sensing, or fine-scale modeling such as large-eddy simulation (LES). LES is appealing to constrain PDFs because it generates large sample sizes, can simulate a variety of cloud regimes/case studies, and is not subject to the ambiguities of observations. However, despite the appeal of using model output for parameterization development, it has not been demonstrated that LES satisfactorily reproduces the observed spatial structure of microphysical fields. In this study, the structure of observed and modeled microphysical fields are compared by applying bifractal analysis, an approach that quantifies variability across spatial scales, to simulations of a drizzling stratocumulus field that span a range of domain sizes, drop concentrations (a proxy for mesoscale organization), and microphysics schemes (bulk and bin). Simulated q c closely matches observed estimates of bifractal parameters that measure smoothness and intermittency. There are major discrepancies between observed and simulated q r properties, though, with bulk simulated q r consistently displaying the bifractal properties of observed clouds (smooth, minimally intermittent) rather than rain while bin simulations produce q r that is appropriately intermittent but too smooth. These results suggest fundamental limitations of bulk and bin schemes to realistically represent higher-order statistics of the observed rain structure.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Jefferson Lab Eta Factory Experiment and Applications of PbWO4 Calorimeters in Future Experimental Facilities

The goal of the new JLab Eta Factory (JEF) experiment, conducted with the GlueX detector in Hall D at Jefferson Lab, is to perform measurements of various ¿(') decays with a primary focus on rare neutral modes. The experiment’s physics program ranges from precision tests of low-energy QCD to searches for gauge bosons with masses below 1 GeV that could couple the Standard Model (SM) sector to the dark sector. The experiment will collect a high-statistics data sample of ¿(') mesons produced via a beam of tagged photons. The GlueX detector features a large, nearly uniform acceptance for both neutral and charged particles, enabling efficient identification of complex multi-particle final states. To meet the requirements of the JEF experiment, the inner section of the forward lead-glass calorimeter in the GlueX detector has been upgraded with lead tungstate (PbWO4) scintillating crystals. PbWO4 offers exceptional characteristics, such as a small radiation length and Molire radius, and large light yield, that make it ideal for constructing high- granularity, high-resolution, radiation-hard detectors. These properties enable excellent spatial separation and energy resolution of reconstructed electromagnetic showers, establishing PbWO4 as the material of choice for many high-precision experiments. The JEF experiment began data collection in April 2025 and will operate concurrently with the GlueX experiment, whose primary objective is the search for gluonic excitations in the meson spectrum. I will give an overview of the JEF experiment, the GlueX detector, and the feasibility of further upgrades to support future ¿ physics studies. Special attention will be given to the newly constructed PbWO4 scintillating calorimeter and recent advancements in calorimeter instrumentation.

Somov, Alexander↗

Projective imaging of high-energy nuclei via coherent exclusive vector meson production in electron-nucleus collisions

One of the major goals of modern nuclear experiments is to study the distributions of gluons inside nuclei at high energy. A key measurement is the coherent exclusive vector meson (VM) production in diffractive electron-nucleus collisions, where the gluon spatial distribution inside the nucleus can be obtained through a Fourier transform of the squared nuclear momentum transfer (|t|) distribution. This research aims to overcome the two main obstacles of the |t| measurement: limited precision in measuring |t| arising from the momentum resolution of the outgoing electron and the overwhelming incoherent background. We demonstrate that by measuring the projected |t| distribution along the direction perpendicular to the electron scattering plane, the effect of the outgoing electron’s momentum resolution can be effectively mitigated, and the diffractive pattern is largely restored. Furthermore, we propose to measure the angular distribution of the VM’s decay daughters to statistically remove the incoherent background.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

A new method for measuring the 3D turbulent velocity dispersion of molecular clouds

ABSTRACT The structure and star formation activity of a molecular cloud are fundamentally linked to its internal turbulence. However, accurately measuring the turbulent velocity dispersion is challenging due to projection effects and observational limitations, such as telescope resolution, particularly for clouds that include non-turbulent motions, such as large-scale rotation. Here, we develop a new method to recover the 3D turbulent velocity dispersion (σv,3D) from position–position–velocity (PPV) data. We simulate a rotating, turbulent, collapsing molecular cloud, and compare its intrinsic σv,3D with three different measures of the velocity dispersion accessible in PPV space: (1) the spatial mean of the 2nd-moment map, σi, (2) the standard deviation of the gradient/rotation-corrected 1st-moment map, σ(c − grad), and (3) a combination of (1) and (2), called the ‘gradient-corrected parent velocity dispersion’, $\sigma _{\mathrm{(p}-\mathrm{grad)}}=(\sigma _{\mathrm{i}}^2+\sigma _{(\mathrm{c}-\mathrm{grad)}}^2)^{1/2}$. We show that the gradient correction is crucial in order to recover purely turbulent motions of the cloud, independent of the orientation of the cloud with respect to the line of sight. We find that with a suitable correction factor and appropriate filters applied to the moment maps, all three statistics can be used to recover σv,3D, with method 3 being the most robust and reliable. We determine the correction factor as a function of the telescope beam size for different levels of cloud rotation, and find that for a beam full width at half-maximum f and cloud radius R, the 3D turbulent velocity dispersion can best be recovered from the gradient-corrected parent velocity dispersion via $\sigma _{v,\mathrm{3D}}= \left[(-0.29\pm 0.26)\, f/R + 1.93 \pm 0.15\right] \sigma _{\mathrm{(p}-\mathrm{grad)}}$ for f/R < 1, independent of the level of cloud rotation or LOS orientation.

Stewart, Madeleine↗

HIGH-FIDELITY SIMULATION OF SOOT FORMATION AND THERMAL RADIATION IN A LABORATORY-SCALE RICH-QUENCH-LEAN BURNER

High-fidelity simulations of a swirl-stabilized turbulent spray flame in a laboratory-scale aero-combustor have been performed to evaluate the predictability of state-of-the-art models in capturing soot formation. The simulations employ a complex chemical mechanism developed for Jet-A with PAH chemistry, coupled with the Hybrid Method of Moments (HMOM) soot model, and a Lagrangian dilute spray model for the fuel injection. Two simulations are performed to compare the results when thermal radiation is neglected or included in the solution with a mean spectral model. Modeling closures for the soot differential diffusion effects in mixture fraction space, as well as turbulence-radiation interaction are also evaluated using the data generated by the simulations. Given the degree of complexity of the simulation, the results showed good agreement with experimental measurements of the spatial distribution of the soot volume fraction ensemble average. A closer agreement with the experiment is observed when thermal radiation is included in the solution. Thermal radiation is observed to reduce the flame temperature and increase the flame intermittency, denoted by the increase in the temperature standard deviation in mixture fraction space. The reduction in temperature also leads to a reduction in PAH production and soot volume fraction. Turbulence is observed to have different effects on radiative emission depending on the mixture fraction. Turbulent scalar fluctuations significantly enhance radiative emission in fuel lean mixtures and can also play a role for fuel rich conditions. The statistical description of the turbulence-radiation interaction, previously proposed in the literature, was observed to correctly reproduce the high-fidelity results. Model coefficients were provided for swirl-stabilized flames. The soot differential diffusion model, previously proposed in the literature, based on the residual between the exact term and its model approximation, was also evaluated. The residual correction term further improved the agreement with exact differential diffusion term evaluated with the high-fidelity simulation data in mixture fraction space. The results suggest that the effective turbulent Lewis number can be equal to unity in simulations of turbulent non-premixed recirculating flames.

Soriano, Bruno [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL)↗

Dynamical Large Deviations of Two-Dimensional Kinetically Constrained Models Using a Neural-Network State Ansatz

We use a neural-network ansatz originally designed for the variational optimization of quantum systems to study dynamical large deviations in classical ones. We use recurrent neural networks to describe the large deviations of the dynamical activity of model glasses, kinetically constrained models in two dimensions. We present the first finite size-scaling analysis of the large-deviation functions of the two-dimensional Fredrickson-Andersen model, and explore the spatial structure of the high-activity sector of the South-or-East model. These results provide a new route to the study of dynamical large-deviation functions, and highlight the broad applicability of the neural-network state ansatz across domains in physics.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Rotational symmetry relation for efficient response function generation in the coarse mesh transport method COMET

The coarse mesh transport code COMET is a continuous energy hybrid stochastic-deterministic neutronics solver with high fidelity and formidable computation speed in solving reactor core problems. Its method is based on the incident flux expansion theory. In this work, we take advantage of the local geometric symmetry in many reactor cores lattices (e.g., fuel lattices and reflector blocks) to develop relations among the flux response expansion coefficients for symmetric surfaces to further improve the computational efficiency of the COMET response function generation tool (method). This is done by a rigorous derivation of the transformation matrices for the angular and spatial expansion moments resulting from a rotation of a coarse mesh by an arbitrary angle. The relations for the response coefficients for the symmetric surfaces can be then written as the Kronecker product of those transformation matrices. The method is implemented into COMET and tested on two advanced high temperature reactor (AHTR) full-length single assembly benchmark problems. The COMET results using the response function library based on the symmetry relations were compared to those using the library directly generated by continuous energy Monte Carlo for all surfaces. It was found that the eigenvalues and stripe-wise fission densities using the two libraries are in statistical agreement as expected. This indicates that the new method maintains the high fidelity of the original COMET method while improving the computational efficiency in the response function generation by 270% to 400%, depending on the local geometric symmetry. This method also reduces the size of the response function library by the same magnitude (270% to 400%). (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Ordovician-Cambrian Units: Hierarchical Evaluation of Geologic Carbon Storage Resource Estimates

The Indiana Geological and Water Survey (IGWS) led subtask 1.1 to assess the regional distribution and estimate the storage capacity of Ordovician-Cambrian stratigraphic units located within the partnership region. A comprehensive data set of wireline logs and petrophysical information was used to generate these interpretations. These data include core analysis for porosity and permeability, mercury injection capillary pressure (MICP), and existing well data including location and stratigraphic information. This report includes storage resource estimates (SREs) for three potential storage reservoirs(limestone and dolostone from the Upper Ordovician Trenton Limestone/Black River Group and equivalent units, the Middle Ordovician St. Peter Sandstone, and primary target reservoir rocks of the Lower Ordovician and Upper Cambrian Knox Supergroup and equivalent units) calculated using six methodologies: (1) a fixed value of porosity of 10 percent in all units evaluated; (2) a unique average porosity (per well) from wireline-derived porosity (neutron, sonic, and/or density porosity for each unit); (3) porosity values from core analysis; (4) a depth-dependent porosity model (Knox Supergroup only); (5) porosity based on a model based on petrophysical facies; and (6) SREs using National Energy Technology Laboratory’s CO2 Storage prospeCtive Resource Estimation Excel aNalysis (CO2-SCREEN beta V2). All methods used the same values for thickness for each unit. However, the areal extent of each assessment was limited by the data available for each method. Estimated volumes were calculated in 1-by-1 kilometer grid cells and summarized as county and total stratigraphic unit volumes. The resultant SREs mass are displayed using boxplots, which allow for comparing data statistics (mean values and variability) between methods. Differences observed in SRE results from the six methods are mainly attributable to differences in the data and conceptual models used to interpret or estimate porosity in each method. Based on this systematic variability between methods, it is inferred that methods 1, 4, and 6 are best used for regional-scale reconnaissance estimates of storage capacity while methods 2, 3, and 5 are more appropriate for local scales where more data is required. All estimates are data-density dependent and different methods require different amounts of data for reasonable assessments. ArcMap 10.5.1 software was used to portray SREs to help visualize spatial variance of estimates for each methodology, and more importantly, to highlight those areas having the greatest total storage potential estimates.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Statistical Tool Size Study for Computer-Controlled Optical Surfacing

Over the past few decades, computer-controlled optical surfacing (CCOS) systems have become more deterministic. A target surface profile can be predictably achieved with a combination of tools of different sizes. However, deciding the optimal set of tool sizes that will achieve the target residual error in the shortest run time is difficult, and no general guidance has been proposed in the literature. In this paper, we present a computer-assisted study on choosing the proper tool size for a given surface error map. First, we propose that the characteristic frequency ratio (CFR) can be used as a general measure of the correction capability of a tool over a surface map. Second, the performance of different CFRs is quantitatively studied with a computer simulation by applying them to guide the tool size selection for polishing a large number of randomly generated surface maps with similar initial spatial frequencies and root mean square errors. Finally, we find that CFR = 0.75 achieves the most stable trade-off between the total run time and the number of iterations and thus can be used as a general criterion in tool size selection for CCOS processes. To the best of our knowledge, the CFR is the first criterion that ties tool size selection to overall efficiency.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Accelerating geostatistical modeling using geostatistics-informed machine Learning

Ordinary Kriging (OK) is a popular geostatistical algorithm for spatial interpolation and estimation. The computational complexity of OK changes quadratically and cubically for memory and speed, respectively, given the number of data. Therefore, it is computationally intensive and also challenging to process a large set of data, especially in three-dimensional (3D) cases. This paper develops a geostatistics-informed machine learning (GIML) model to improve the efficiency of OK by reducing the number of points required to be estimated using OK. Specifically, only a very few of the unknown points are estimated by OK to get the weights and estimations, which are used as the training dataset. Moreover, the governing equations of OK are used to guide our proposed machine learning to better reproduce the spatial distributions. Our results show that the proposed GIML can reduce the computational time of OK by at least one order of magnitude. The effectiveness of the GIML is evaluated and compared using a 2D case. Furthermore, we demonstrate its efficiency and robustness by considering a different number of training samples on various 3D simulation grids.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Nonlinear Topological Photonics: Capturing Nonlinear Dynamics and Optical Thermodynamics

Combining multiple optical resonators or engineering dispersion of complex media has provided an effective method for demonstrating topological physics controlling photons in unprecedented ways such as unidirectional light propagation and spatially localized modes between an interface or on a corner. Further, adding nonlinear responses to those topological photonic systems has enabled achieving diverse phases of photons in both space and time, allowing for more functionalities in photonic devices that provide a new playground for studying dynamic features of nonlinear topological systems. However, most methods for describing nonlinear topological photonic systems rely on linear topological theories, making it challenging to accurately characterize the topology of nonlinear systems. Thus, substantial efforts have focused on rigorously describing nonlinear topological phases and developing effective tools to analyze nonlinear topological effects. Meanwhile, coupled multimode optical waveguides with nonlinear dynamic responses provide an excellent platform for the statistical description of photons, opening a new paradigm called “optical thermodynamics”. This review will introduce the basic concepts of nonlinear topological photonics and the recent development of theoretical approaches focusing on data-driven approaches for creating phase diagrams as well as the spectral localizer framework and the pseudospectrum method for understanding optical nonlinearities in topological systems. In addition, the new concept of optical thermodynamics will be introduced with some recent theoretical works.

Topological photonics↗

Near-term heatwave risk in HighResMIP models across different temperature zones of West Africa

This study projects near-future (2031–2050) changes in heatwave (HW) risk across West Africa (WA) using an ensemble of eight high-resolution global climate models from the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project under a high-emission scenario. Using K-means clustering, we divided WA into four unique temperature zones and examined projected changes in extreme temperatures, HW occurrence and magnitude. Our results indicate a statistically significant increase in future HW events across most parts of WA, although considerable spread exists over the region and among individual models. The most pronounced increases are evident in the Sahel/Sahara and the Guinea Highlands subregions, with an ensemble mean increase of ∼10 HW events per year. In contrast, the lowest increase in HW events is projected in central WA, with increases ranging between 1 and 5 events per year. Similarly, the magnitude of HW events is projected to increase in most models, with Sahel/Sahara exhibiting the largest increases. Additionally, projections suggest that the strongest HWs will become more frequent, particularly in northern and southwestern WA. These findings highlight significant spatial heterogeneity in future HW risk across WA, emphasizing the need for targeted adaptation strategies.

HighResMIP↗

Physics-based Induced Earthquake Forecasting: Process Understanding, and Hazards Mitigation

Disposal of saltwater co-produced with oil and gas is linked to elevated seismicity in the Central and Midwest US. There is a concern that these events may lead to widespread damage and an overall increase in seismicity. Thus an improved understanding of the spatially and temporally variable deformation and stress field associated with fluid injection operation is critically necessary for evaluating time-varying seismic hazards. Despite the improvements in seismic monitoring capacity and the resulting decrease in the magnitude detection threshold, estimates of induced earthquake probability remain elusive due to insufficient models incapable of accounting for the complex physics governing the process of induced seismicity. The proposed research effort will comprehensively analyze, integrate, and interpret geodetic, injection, and seismic data in the vicinity of the injection sites in Oklahoma to resolve the 4-dimensional distribution of pore pressure and stress in the shallow crust. This project, in particular, is focused on exploring the statistical relation between injection operation and increased earthquake hazard. The amplitude of and the extent to which pore pressure changes are determined by some factors, in particular, the hydrogeological properties of the rocks, such as diffusivity. Thus the available deformation data will be used to constrain hydrogeological properties of the medium, to accurately resolve the evolution of crustal stresses due to fluid injection. Having the time-varying models of stress changes, a statistical framework will be implemented to estimate the time-dependent probability of large earthquakes on the nearby fault systems. These data and models help to improve seismic hazard estimates and aid in constructing operational-induced earthquake forecast models. This information can also be integrated into the updated U.S. National Seismic Hazard Map, which local communities and authorities use in their earthquake risk estimates and mitigation efforts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Characterizing soil water content variability across spatial scales from optimized high-resolution distributed temperature sensing technique

Fiber-optic Distributed Temperature Sensing, when combined with the Single-probe Heat-pulse technique can measure soil moisture (θ) across spatial scales. The key limitation of this system is in obtaining the relationship between soil thermal conductivity (λ) and θ for a specific field. Using the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) site, this study tested a new methodology to account for the spatial variability in the λ-θ relationship using a Gaussian processes model. The resulting accurate θ measurements (RMSE = 0.03 m 3 m –3 ) were used to characterize the spatial variability of θ across scales and to develop an empirical equation that can correct for the changes in the θ spatial variability observed at different spatial resolutions. In addition, the number of required samples to accurately characterize θ and its variability over scales ranging from 5 m and 350 m were estimated. Finally, these findings provide key information to scale soil moisture from centimeters to hundreds of meters for process understanding.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data for Determining Spatially Varying Profit-Maximizing Management Practices for Miscanthus and Switchgrass Production in the Rainfed United States

The compiled datasets include county-level variables used for simulating miscanthus and switchgrass production in 2287 counties across the rainfed US including 5-year (2012-2016) averaged growing season degree days (GDD), 5-year (2012-2016) averaged growing season cumulative precipitation, National Commodity Crop Productivity Index (NCCPI) values, regional dummies (only for miscanthus), the regional-level random effect of the yield response function, N price, land cash rent, the first year fixed cost (only for switchgrass), and separate datasets for simulating an alternative model assuming a constant N rate. The GAMS codes are used to run the simulation to obtain the main results including the age-varying profit-maximizing N rate, biomass yields, and annual profits for miscanthus and switchgrass production across counties in the rainfed US. The STATA codes are used to merge and analyze simulation results and create summary statistics tables and key figures.

Age↗

Experimental investigation of multi-scale strain-field heterogeneity in rocks

Rocks have inherently heterogeneous micro-structures. The mechanical response of these heterogeneous micro-structures primarily governs the overall macroscopic behavior of intact rocks, as these features cause heterogeneity in the distribution of stress and strain within a rock volume. These attributes have generally been studied through numerical tools, but in this study, the stress-induced multi-scale spatial heterogeneity in the strain-field of three types of rocks was analyzed experimentally. The full-field non-contact strain measurement approach of 2D Digital Image Correlation (DIC) was employed for real-time evaluation of the progression of strain-field heterogeneity across the surface of the rock specimens when subjected to uniaxial compression. The results show that the strain-field heterogeneity is a characteristic of the inherent heterogeneity of the rock specimens, and that it amplifies with the magnitude of stress applied on the rock specimens. The changes in the strain-field heterogeneity with loading were consistent with established microcrack evolution processes in the rock specimens. The statistical fluctuation in the strain-field heterogeneity of the three rocks at varying gauge lengths (GL) was then analyzed for the determination of the Representative Volume Element (RVE) length-scale at increasing load levels. The evolution of the RVE length-scale with loading facilitates an objective way of determination of the stress at which the strain-field heterogeneity increases and begins to influence the overall global response of the material. The RVE length-scale variation with loading showed that at the RVE length-scale reaches the specimen-scale at load levels well below the peak strength.

2D-digital image correlation↗

NEON AOP Survey of Upper East River CO Watersheds: Waveform LiDAR Binary Data

The waveform Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data in this package were generated through a National Ecological Observatory Network Airborne Observation Platform (NEON AOP) acquisition over watersheds of interest surrounding Crested Butte, Colorado. The remote sensing imagery acquired by the NEON AOP supports an interdisciplinary project on hydrology, biogeochemistry, and ecosystem functioning in a snow-dominated headwater environment. These waveform LiDAR data enable spatially continuous estimation of vegetation structure parameters to facilitate analyses of the major environmental drivers of structural and compositional variability. The package contains 97 compressed file archives in 7-zip (.7z) format, each corresponding to one acquisition flightpath. Within each .7z archive is a set of constituent files describing properties of the LiDAR waveforms, such as return intensity, geolocation, outgoing pulse and other behavior of the sensor and signals. Once downloaded, the files must first be unzipped using the widely distributed command-line software utility 7z, using the command '7z x \[filename\].7z \[target_directory\]'. All files within the .7z archives can be opened in IDL, MatLab, or the open-source R statistical computing environment. Further details about the data package are in the attached user guide (neon_aop_crbu_waveformlidar_userguide.pdf). This work was supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

2018 NEON and 2025 CHESS Campaigns↗