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At least 559 records · Page 31

Constraining Clouds and Convective Parameterizations in A Climate Model Using Paleoclimate Data

Cloud and convective parameterizations strongly influence uncertainties in equilibrium climate sensitivity. We provide a proof-of-concept study to constrain these parameterizations in a perturbed parameter ensemble of the atmosphere-only version of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model E2.1 simulations by evaluating model biases in the present-day runs using multiple satellite climatologies and by comparing simulated δ 18 O of precipitation (δ 18 O p ), known to be sensitive to parameterization schemes, with a global database of speleothem δ 18 O records covering the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), mid-Holocene (MH) and pre-industrial (PI) periods. Relative to modern interannual variability, paleoclimate simulations show greater sensitivity to parameter changes, allowing for an evaluation of model uncertainties over a broader range of climate forcing and the identification of parts of the world that are parameter sensitive. Certain simulations reproduced absolute δ 18 O p values across all time periods, along with LGM and MH δ 18 O p anomalies relative to the PI, better than the default parameterization. No single set of parameterizations worked well in all climate states, likely due to the non-stationarity of cloud feedbacks under varying boundary conditions. Future work that involves varying multiple parameter sets simultaneously with coupled ocean feedbacks will likely provide improved constraints on cloud and convective parameterizations.

cloud and convective parameterization↗

Thermophysical property sensitivity effects in steel solidification

The simulation of advanced solidification processes via digital computer techniques has gained widespread acceptance during the last decade or so. Models today can predict transient temperature fields, fluid flow fields, important microstructural parameters, and potential defects in castings. However, the lack of accurate thermophysical property data on important industrial alloys threatens to limit the ability of manufacturers to fully capitalize on the technology's benefits. A study of the sensitivity of one such numerical model of a steel plate casting to imposed variations in the data utilized for the thermal conductivity, specific heat, density, and heat of fusion is described. The sensitivity of the data's variability is characterized by its effects on the net solidification time of various points along the centerline of the plate casting. Recommendations for property measurements are given and the implications of data uncertainty for modelers are discussed.

Overfelt, Tony↗

An examination of anticipated g-jitter on Space Station and its effects on materials processes

This study is concerned with the effects of g-jitter, the residual acceleration aboard spacecraft, on selected classes of materials processes. In particular, the anticipated acceleration environment aboard Space Station Freedom (SSF) and its potential effects are analyzed, but the topic is covered with a sufficient level of generality as to apply to other processes and to other vehicles as well. Some of the key findings of this study include: The present acceleration specifications for SSF are inadequate to assure a quality level low-g environment. The local g vector orientation is an extremely sensitive parameter for certain key processes, but can not be controlled to within the desired tolerance. Therefore, less emphasis should be placed upon achieving a tight control of SSF attitude, but more emphasis should be focused on reducing the overall level of the g-jitter magnitude. Melt-based crystal growth may not be successfully processed in the relatively noisy environment of a large inhabited space structure. Growth from vapor or from solution appears more favorable. A smaller space structure and/or a free flyer can provide better alternatives in terms of g-jitter considerations. A high priority (including budgetary) should be given to coordinated efforts among researchers, SSF designers, and equipment contractors, to develop practical experiment-specific sensitivity requirements. Combined focused numerical simulations and experiments with well-resolved acceleration measurements should be vigorously pursued for developing reliable experiment-specific sensitivity data. Appendices provide an extensive cross-referenced bibliography, a discussion of the merits offered by g-jitter analysis techniques, as well as definitions of relevant nondimensional quantities and a brief description of available accelerometry hardware.

Nelson, Emily S.↗

Simple Sensitivity Analysis for Orion GNC

The performance of Orion flight software, especially its GNC software, is being analyzed by running Monte Carlo simulations of Orion spacecraft flights. The simulated performance is analyzed for conformance with flight requirements, expressed as performance constraints. Flight requirements include guidance (e.g. touchdown distance from target) and control (e.g., control saturation) as well as performance (e.g., heat load constraints). The Monte Carlo simulations disperse hundreds of simulation input variables, for everything from mass properties to date of launch.We describe in this paper a sensitivity analysis tool (Critical Factors Tool or CFT) developed to find the input variables or pairs of variables which by themselves significantly influence satisfaction of requirements or significantly affect key performance metrics (e.g., touchdown distance from target). Knowing these factors can inform robustness analysis, can inform where engineering resources are most needed, and could even affect operations. The contributions of this paper include the introduction of novel sensitivity measures, such as estimating success probability, and a technique for determining whether pairs of factors are interacting dependently or independently. The tool found that input variables such as moments, mass, thrust dispersions, and date of launch were found to be significant factors for success of various requirements. Examples are shown in this paper as well as a summary and physics discussion of EFT-1 driving factors that the tool found.

Monte Carlo Simulation↗

The use of idealised experiments in testing a new convective parametrization: Performance of CoMorph-A

CoMorph is a new mass-flux convection parametrization under development at the Met Office designed for use within the Unified Model and its successor model, LFRic. Use of a three-dimensional idealised model enables controlled tests of the performance of the scheme across different regimes. This includes the interaction between the physical parametrizations and the resolved dynamics, allowing study of the emergent organisation of convection on the resolved scale. A selection of well-known cases is revisited here, with the purpose of documenting the extent to which CoMorph captures a range of important, but challenging, behaviour such as the diurnal cycle and sensitivity to tropospheric moisture. Simulations using CoMorph-A, a new physics package, that has been demonstrated to perform well at numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate scales, are compared against the current global atmosphere configuration and high-resolution results. In addition to an entirely new convection scheme, the package of changes includes significant changes to the cloud, microphysics, and boundary-layer parametrizations. Recognising that CoMorph-A is the first version of a scheme that will continue to be substantially developed and to obtain good performance, compromises in tuning have had to be made. These idealised tests therefore show what works well in this configuration, and what areas will require further work. As such, it is quite a demanding testbed and could be viewed as some of the equipment required for a “convective playground”.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Life cycle assessment of novel heat exchanger for dry cooling of power plants based on encapsulated phase change materials

Cooling systems in power plants account for approximately 40% of total freshwater withdrawals in the U.S. Due to dwindling access to freshwater resources worldwide, continued operation of wet cooling systems poses a significant engineering challenge. To reduce water consumption, a novel air-cooled heat exchanger has been developed using encapsulated phase change material (EPCM) for dry cooling of power plants. Compared to traditional finned-tube air-cooled condensers, this novel EPCM heat exchanger improves the heat transfer coefficient and power plant efficiency while reducing the pressure drop and cooling system cost. Life cycle assessment (LCA) and techno-economic analysis (TEA) are used to evaluate the environmental and economic performance of EPCM heat exchangers from cradle-to-grave and to compare them to wet cooling and traditional air-cooled condensers. A thermodynamic model is developed to predict the EPCM heat exchanger performance for plant-scale operations. Equipment and construction costs for heat exchangers are estimated based on design parameters obtained from the thermodynamic model. Both process-LCA and economic-input–output LCA are used to simulate and test the sensitivity of EPCM alternatives with commercial wet and dry cooling technologies. We investigate options for EPCM end-of-life management upon retiring the heat exchanger and construct a process-based LCA model to estimate a greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions credit for recycling the EPCM. The life cycle GHG emission of the novel dry cooling technology is 1.16 kg CO 2 eq. /MWh compared with the 1.1–4.3 kg CO 2 eq. /MWh reported for commercial dry cooling technologies and consumes 9.5 L/MWh e of water for cradle-to-gate life cycle, which is significantly lower than that of wet cooling systems. The TEA shows many advantages of EPCM cooling technology over the state-of-art dry cooling solutions. Overall, the EPCM heat exchanger provides a better alternative compared to existing dry cooling and wet cooling technologies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Estimation of constituent properties of concrete materials with an artificial neural network based method

Multi-scale models are developed for heterogeneous concrete materials to estimate their macroscopic mechanical properties in terms of micro-structural data. One crucial challenge of those models is the identification of local properties of constituent phases. In this paper, we present an efficient method based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). Typical concrete materials are taken as example. A macroscopic analytical strength criterion is established from three steps of nonlinear homogenization procedure. The macroscopic strength of materials is determined as a function of the frictional coefficient and cohesion of solid cement particles at nanometer scale, intra-particle pores, inter-particle pores and aggregates (inclusions). The objective is to identify the nanoscopic frictional coefficient and cohesion of cement particle from measured macroscopic values of uniaxial compression and tensile strengths. For this purpose, a numerical method based on the ANN is developed. With the analytical macroscopic strength criterion, sensitivity studies are first realized to identify the most important micro-structural parameters influencing the macroscopic strength of concrete. A simplified analytical macroscopic strength criterion is then proposed. A large dataset is further constructed through the inversion of the analytical strength criterion by using the aggregates volume fraction, porosity, macroscopic uniaxial tensile and compressive strengths as input variables and the frictional coefficient and cohesion of cement particles as output unknowns. An ANN model containing four hidden layers and 100 neurons in each layer is constructed and trained by using this dataset. Various types of validation of the ANN model are performed. It is found that the proposed ANN based model can effectively predict the frictional coefficient and cohesion of porous cement paste at the microscopic scale with a very good accuracy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Aggregation Methods for Quantifying PTM and Structural Changes in Bottom-Up Proteomics

Bottom-up proteomic workflows rely on sequential preprocessing steps, commonly including peptide-to-protein aggregation (“roll-up”), to enhance data reliability and interpretability. While roll-up is effective for protein-centered analyses, it may be suboptimal for applications focused on post-translational modifications (PTMs) or protein structural changes, such as limited proteolysis–mass spectrometry (LiP-MS). Here, we investigate how different roll-up strategies influence site-level quantification in PTM differential analysis. Moreover, we introduce a novel site-centric roll-up approach tailored for LiP-MS, which quantifies proteolytic fragments rather than solely tryptic peptides. We benchmark these methods through simulation studies, comparing their sensitivity and specificity in detecting structural and PTM-driven changes. We found that the median and mean roll-up methods outperform the sum method in both PTM and LiP proteomics, and site-level quantification in LiP outperforms peptide-level quantification. Our findings offer the first systematic, data-driven guidance for selecting roll-up techniques in site-level proteomic analyses, with implications for both PTM-focused and structural proteomics studies.

aggregation↗

How May the Choice of Downscaling Techniques and Meteorological Reference Observations Affect Future Hydroclimate Projections?

Abstract We present an intercomparison of a suite of high‐resolution downscaled climate projections based on a six‐member General Circulation Model (GCM) ensemble from Coupled Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The CMIP6 GCMs have been downscaled using dynamical and statistical downscaling techniques based on two meteorological reference observations over the conterminous United States. We use the regional climate model, RegCM4, for dynamical downscaling, double bias correction constructed analogs method for statistical downscaling, and Daymet and Livneh datasets as the reference observations for statistical training and bias‐correction. We evaluate the performances of downscaled data in both historical and future periods under the SSP585 scenario. While dynamical downscaling improves the simulation of some performance evaluation indices, it adds an extra bias in others, highlighting the need for statistical correction before its use in impact assessments. Downscaled datasets after bias‐correction compare exceptionally well with observations. However, the choice of downscaling techniques and the underlying reference observations influence the hydroclimate characteristics of downscaled data. For instance, the statistical downscaling generally preserves the GCMs climate change signal but overestimates the frequency of hot extremes. Similarly, simulated future changes are sensitive to the choice of reference observations, particularly for precipitation extremes that exhibit a higher projected increase in the ensembles trained and/or corrected by Daymet than Livneh. Overall, these results demonstrate that multiple factors, including downscaling techniques and reference observations, can substantially influence the outcome of downscaled climate projections and stress the need for a comprehensive understanding of such method‐based uncertainties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Actinide opacities for modelling the spectra and light curves of kilonovae

ABSTRACT We extend previous ab initio calculations of lanthanide opacities to include a complete set of actinide opacities for use in the modelling of kilonova (KN) light curves and spectra. Detailed, fine-structure line features are generated using the configuration-interaction approach. These actinide opacities display similar trends to those observed for lanthanide opacities, such as the lighter actinides producing higher opacity than the heavier ones for relevant conditions in the dynamical ejecta. A line-binned treatment is employed to pre-compute opacity tables for 14 actinide elements (89 ≤ Z ≤ 102) over a grid of relevant temperatures and densities. These tabular opacities will be made publicly available for general usage in KN modelling. We demonstrate the usefulness of these opacities in KN simulations by exploring the sensitivity of light curves and spectra to different actinide abundance distributions that are predicted by different nuclear theories, as well as to different choices of ejecta mass and velocity. We find very little sensitivity to the two considered distributions, indicating that opacities for actinides with Z ≥ 99 do not contribute strongly. On the other hand, a single actinide element, protactinium, is found to produce faint spectral features in the far-infrared at late times (5–7 d post merger). More generally, we find that the choice of ejecta mass and velocity have the most significant effect on KN emission for this study.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

How do supernova remnants cool? – I. Morphology, optical emission lines, and shocks

ABSTRACT Supernovae (SNe) inject ∼1051 erg in the interstellar medium, thereby shocking and heating the gas. A substantial fraction of this energy is later lost via radiative cooling. We present a post-processing module for the flash code to calculate the cooling radiation from shock-heated gas using collisional excitation data from mappings v. When applying this tool to a simulated SN remnant (SNR), we find that most energy is emitted in the EUV. However, optical emission lines ([O iii], [N ii], [S ii], H α, H β) are usually best observable. Our shock detection scheme shows that [S ii] and [N ii] emissions arise from the thin shell surrounding the SNR, while [O iii], H $\rm \alpha$, and H $\rm \beta$ originate from the volume-filling hot gas inside the SNR bubble. We find that the optical emission lines are affected by the SNR’s complex structure and its projection on to the plane of the sky because the escaping line luminosity can be reduced by 10–80 per cent due to absorption along the line of sight. Additionally, the subtraction of contaminating background radiation is required for the correct classification of an SNR on the oxygen or sulphur BPT diagrams. The electron temperature and density obtained from our synthetic observations match well with the simulation but are very sensitive to the assumed metallicity.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Small-scale signatures of primordial non-Gaussianity in k-nearest neighbour cumulative distribution functions

ABSTRACT Searches for primordial non-Gaussianity in cosmological perturbations are a key means of revealing novel primordial physics. However, robustly extracting signatures of primordial non-Gaussianity from non-linear scales of the late-time Universe is an open problem. In this paper, we apply k-Nearest Neighbour cumulative distribution functions, kNN-CDFs, to the quijote-png simulations to explore the sensitivity of kNN-CDFs to primordial non-Gaussianity. An interesting result is that for halo samples with $M_\mathrm{ h}\langle 10^{14}$ M$_\odot$ $h^{-1}$, the kNN-CDFs respond to equilateral PNG in a manner distinct from the other parameters. This persists in the galaxy catalogues in redshift space and can be differentiated from the impact of galaxy modelling, at least within the halo occupation distribution (HOD) framework considered here. kNN-CDFs are related to counts-in-cells and, through mapping a subset of the kNN-CDF measurements into the count-in-cells picture, we show that our results can be modelled analytically. A caveat of the analysis is that we only consider the HOD framework, including assembly bias. It will be interesting to validate these results with other techniques for modelling the galaxy–halo connection, e.g. (hybrid) effective field theory or semi-analytical methods.

Coulton, William R. (ORCID:0000000212973673)↗

Low frequency, 100–600 MHz, searches with axion cavity haloscopes

We investigate reentrant and dielectric loaded cavities for the purpose of extending the range of axion cavity haloscopes to lower masses, below the range where the Axion Dark Matter experiment (ADMX) has already searched. Reentrant and dielectric loaded cavities were simulated numerically to calculate and optimize their form factors and quality factors. A prototype reentrant cavity was built and its measured properties were compared with the simulations. We estimate the sensitivity of axion dark matter searches using reentrant and dielectric loaded cavities inserted in the existing ADMX magnet at the University of Washington and a large magnet being installed at Fermilab. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Cybersecurity Assessment in DER-rich Distribution Operations: Criticality Levels and Impact Analysis

The integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) in distribution networks has become a pivotal strategy for achieving decarbonization, enhancing grid resilience, and optimizing grid efficiency. Remote monitoring and control op- erations of such resources rely on a network of sensors and communication infrastructure, exposing the system to potential cyber threats. Therefore, as the deployment of DERs increases, ensuring secure monitoring and control becomes an imperative challenge. This paper utilizes real-time feeder models, which are instrumental in developing cybersecurity testbeds tailored for hardware-in-loop (HIL) systems. These models enable users to simulate cyber attacks in a real-world environment and analyze the power distribution operations during vulnerabilities. Furthermore, we discuss several practical sets of grid parameters to identify critical levels of DERs and evaluate various scenarios that simulate cyber threats on sensitive DERs. The modified IEEE 123-bus model is used as the test case for demonstrating the proposed scenarios. The findings from this study provide valuable insights into the vulnerabilities and potential consequences of cyber attacks on DERs, allowing for better mitigation strategies and improved cyber resilience in future distribution networks.

Maharjan, Manisha↗

Generative Physics-Informed Neural Network Solving Multi-Scale and Multi-Phase Plasma Chemical Flow Field

Low-temperature plasmas (LTPs) are non-equilibrium systems with near-room-temperature gas and highly energetic electrons. This makes them ideal for delicate applications in biomedicine and semiconductor manufacturing, enabling processes like wound healing, sterilization, etching, and plasma-enhanced chemical vapor deposition without thermal damage. However, LTPs involve complex chemistries, with hundreds of species and thousands of reactions, complicating their diagnosis, prediction, and control. Conventional diagnostics, such as Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), laser-induced fluorescence (LIF), and optical emission spectroscopy (OES), offer limited species detection, while mass spectrometry (MS) struggles with low-sensitivity species. Additionally, LTP simulations face multi-scale challenges, as macroscopic fluid dynamics and microscopic particle collisions operate on vastly different timescales. To address these issues, we developed an artificial intelligence (AI) based diagnostic system: a generative physics-informed neural network (PINN-Gen) that can predict spatially resolved species concentrations and temperatures in LTPs by integrating experimental data from planar LIF with microscopic plasma chemical kinetics and macroscopic fluid mechanics, including plasma-liquid interactions at the interface between two phases. PINN-Gen solves no equations but checks the errors of physical laws by substituting the output from neural network, and the comparison with the experimental results. Thus, it naturally avoids the multi-scale difficulty of numerical simulations and predicts the results of conventionally unsolvable multi-scale and multi-phase problems. The real-time prediction will be robust due to the physical information used in the training of such a neural network, and only very limited input of condition required due to its generative feature.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Aerodynamic Data Fusion Toward the Digital Twin Paradigm

This paper considers the fusion of two aerodynamic data sets originating from differing types of physical or computer experiments. This paper specifically addresses the fusion of 1) noisy and in-complete fields from wind-tunnel measurements and 2) deterministic but biased fields from numerical simulations. These two data sources are fused in order to estimate the true field that best matches measured quantities that serve as the ground truth. For example, two sources of pressure fields about an aircraft are fused based on measured forces and moments from a wind-tunnel experiment. A fundamental challenge in this problem is that the true field is unknown and cannot be estimated with 100% certainty. A Bayesian framework is employed to infer the true fields conditioned on measured quantities of interest; essentially a statistical correction to the data is performed. The fused data may then be used to construct more accurate surrogate models suitable for early stages of aerospace design. An extension of the proper orthogonal decomposition with constraints is also introduced to solve the same problem. In this work, both methods are demonstrated on fusing the pressure distributions for flow past the RAE2822 airfoil and the Common Research Model wing at transonic conditions. Comparison of both methods reveals that the Bayesian method is more robust when data are scarce and capable of also accounting for uncertainties in the data. Furthermore, given adequate data, the proper-orthogonal-decomposition-based and Bayesian approaches lead to surprisingly similar results.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A study of remote sensing as applied to regional and small watersheds. Volume 1: Summary report

The accuracy of remotely sensed measurements to provide inputs to hydrologic models of watersheds is studied. A series of sensitivity analyses on continuous simulation models of three watersheds determined: (1)Optimal values and permissible tolerances of inputs to achieve accurate simulation of streamflow from the watersheds; (2) Which model inputs can be quantified from remote sensing, directly, indirectly or by inference; and (3) How accurate remotely sensed measurements (from spacecraft or aircraft) must be to provide a basis for quantifying model inputs within permissible tolerances.

Ambaruch, R.↗

A bismuth germanate-shielded mercuric iodide X-ray detector for space applications

The development of HgI2 for solid state X-ray detector applications over the past decade was carried out in connection with the ability of the crystal to operate as a detector at room temperature. In order to achieve the lowest background possible for HgI2 detectors in a space-like environment (balloon and/or satellite altitudes), attention was given to the design of a shielding system which actively vetoes nonaperture events such as gamma rays and charged particles that can mimic signal X-rays by partial deposition of energy in the main detector. The detector system consists of two HgI2 detectors mounted back to back and operated in anticoincidence. The two detectors are placed inside a bismuth germanate scintillating shield along with two hybrid charge-sensitive preamps. Monte Carlo simulations of detector performance are discussed.

Vallerga, J. V.↗