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Education and Training in Radiochemistry – The NAMP Initiative

In 2009, the nuclear industry employed approximately 120,000 people. Nearly 38 percent of the nuclear industry force will be eligible to retire within the next five years. To maintain the current work force, the industry will need to hire approximately 25,000 more workers by 2015. Given that the current radiochemistry workforce is approaching the age for retirement and that a limited number of US universities provide experience with radiochemistry, the United States is faced with a growing demand for the education and training of scientists in the radiochemistry arena. Furthermore, it is critical that the US maintains global leadership in the next generation of safe nuclear energy technology from both a national security and environmental perspective. This will require a robust program that focuses entirely on educating and training the next generation of radiochemists in subjects such as 1- radioanalysis of actinides and radioelements not only in the environment but in medium pertinent to the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle, 2- speciation of radionuclides, 3- detection methods, 4- safeguards etc… Therefore, the National Analytical Management Program (NAMP) has organized a subcommittee focusing on training and education in radiochemistry. Through the efforts of this subcommittee, NAMP has established collaborative associations to foster the exchange of scientific and technical information with professors in radiochemistry programs at different universities. This paper will present our accomplishments and the development of a curriculum for an intermediate radiochemistry course in cooperation with the EPA. These short (2-hour) webinar presentations on specific radiochemistry topics have been developed and will be presented. The webinars are recorded and will become a library or collection of information for on-line access from the NAMP website.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Federation of UML models for cyber physical use cases

This method employs the concept of federation, which is defined as the use of existing models that represent aspects of a system in specific domains (such as physical and cyber security domains) and building interfaces to link all of domain models. Federation seeks to build on existing bodies of work. Some examples include the Common Information Models (CIM) maintained by the International Electrotechnical Commission Technical Committee 57 (IEC TC 57) for the electric power industry. Another relevant model is the CIM maintained by the Distributed Management Task Force (DMTF)? this CIM defines a representation of the managed elements in an Information Technology (IT) environment. The power system is an example of a cyber-physical system, where the cyber systems, consisting of computing infrastructure such as networks and devices, play a critical role in the operation of the underlying physical electricity delivery system. Measurements from remote field devices are relayed to control centers through computer networks, and the data is processed to determine suitable control actions. Control decisions are then relayed back to field devices. It has been observed that threat actors may be able to successfully compromise this cyber layer in order to impact power system operation. Therefore, future control center applications must be wary of potentially compromised measurements coming from field devices. In order to ensure the integrity of the field measurements, these applications could make use of compromise indicators from alternate sources of information such as cyber security. Thus, modern control applications may require access to data from sources that are not defined in the local information model. In such cases, software application interfaces will require integration of data objects from cross-domain data models. When incorporating or federating different domains, it is important to have subject matter experts work together, recognizing that not everyone has the same knowledge, responsibilities, focus, or skill set.

Source record↗

Towards Query-Efficient Black-Box Adversary with Zeroth-Order Natural Gradient Descent

Despite the great achievements of the modern deep neural networks (DNNs), the vulnerability/robustness of state-of-the-art DNNs raises security concerns in many application domains requiring high reliability. Various adversarial attacks are proposed to sabotage the learning performance of DNN models. Among those, the black-box adversarial attack methods have received special attentions owing to their practicality and simplicity. Black-box attacks usually prefer less queries in order to maintain stealthy and low costs. However, most of the current black-box attack methods adopt the first-order gradient descent method, which may come with certain deficiencies such as relatively slow convergence and high sensitivity to hyper-parameter settings. In this paper, we propose a zeroth-order natural gradient descent (ZO-NGD) method to design the adversarial attacks, which incorporates the zeroth-order gradient estimation technique catering to the black-box attack scenario and the second-order natural gradient descent to achieve higher query efficiency. The empirical evaluations on image classification datasets demonstrate that ZO-NGD can obtain significantly lower model query complexities compared with state-of-the-art attack methods.

Zhao, Pu↗

Alternative Approaches for Incentivizing the Frequency Responsive Reserve Ancillary Service

Frequency responsive reserve is the autonomous response of generators and demand response to deviations of system frequency, usually as a result of the instantaneous outage of a large supplier. Frequency responsive reserve arrests the frequency decline resulting in the stabilization of system frequency, and avoids the triggering of under-frequency load-shedding or the reaching of unstablefrequencies that could ultimately lead to system blackouts. It is a crucial service required to maintain a reliable and secure power system. Regions with restructured electricity markets have historically had a lack of incentives for frequency responsive reserve because generators inherently provided the response and on large interconnected systems, more than sufficient response has beenavailable. This may not be the case in future systems due to new technologies and declining response. This paper discusses the issues that can occur without proper incentives and even disincentives, and proposes alternatives to introduce incentives for resources to provide frequency responsive reserve to ensure an efficient and reliable power system.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA) Polychlorinated Biphenyl (PCB)/Radioactive Waste Annual Inventory for Calendar Year 2013

The Toxic Substances Control Act, 40 CFR 761.65(a)(1) provides an exemption from the one year storage time limit for PCB/radioactive waste. PCB/radioactive waste may exceed the one year time limit provided that the provisions at 40 CFR 761.65(a)(2)(ii) and 40 CFR 761.65(a)(2)(iii) are followed. These two subsections require, (ii) "A written record documenting all continuing attempts to secure disposal is maintained until the waste is disposed of" and (iii) "The written record required by subsection (ii) of this section is available for inspection or submission if requested by EPA." EPA Region 10 has requested the Department of Energy (DOE) to submit an inventory of radioactive-contaminated PCB waste in storage at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) for the previous calendar year. The annual inventory is separated into two parts, INL without Advanced Mixed Waste Treatment Project (AMWTP) (this includes Battelle Energy Alliance, LLC, CH2M-WG Idaho, LLC, and the Naval Reactors Facility), and AMWTP.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Electronics for a Picosecond Time-of-flight Measurement

TITLE: Electronics for a Picosecond Time-of-flight Measurement ABSTRACT: Time-of-flight (TOF) detectors have historically been used as part of the particle identification capability of multi-purpose particle physics detectors. An accurate time measurement, combined with a momentum measurement based on the curvature of the track in a magnetic field, is often sufficient to determine the particle's mass, and thus its identity. Such detectors typically have measured the particle flight time extremely precisely, with an uncertainty of one hundred trillionths of a second (also referred to as 100 picoseconds). To put this in perspective it would be like counting all the people on the Earth and getting it right within 1 person! Another use of TOFs is to measure the vertex of the event, which is the location along the beam line where the incoming particles (typically protons) collide. This vertex positon is a well measured quantity for events where the protons collide “head on” as the outgoing particles produced when you blast the proton apart can be used to trace back to a vertex point from which they originated. More frequently the protons just strike a glancing blow and remain intact—in this case they are nearly parallel to the beam and you cannot tell their vertex without this ability to precisely measure the time of flight of the protons. Occasionally both happen in the same event, that is, a central system and two protons are produced. But are they from the same collision, or just a boring background where more than one collision in the same bunch crossing conspire to fake the signal of interest? That’s where the timing of the protons comes into play. The main idea is to measure the time it takes for the two protons to reach TOF detectors positioned equidistant from the center of the main detector. If the vertex is displaced to one side than that detector will measure a shorter time while the other side detector will measure a correspondingly longer time. Taking into account the speed of the particles, which is very close to the speed of light, an accuracy of 100 ps gives a vertex measurement of a few cm or a little more than an inch. At the Large Hadron Collider, where there are up to a hundred billion protons per bunch, and the collision region is compressed to a few inches, that is just not good enough. A higher level of precision is needed to determine whether the vertex of the protons and that of the central system are the same. A factor 10 improvement in the timing measurement to the 10 trillionths of a second level, for example would give the requisite 10 times improvement in the vertex measurement. An accurate measurement of the flight time depends on three key elements: the radiator that produces light when the proton passes through it, the photo-sensor that converts the light to an electrical signal, and the electronics that convert this electrical signal into a time measurement with a compact recordable format. With recent improvements in detector design featuring a series of quartz radiators connected to a micro-channel plate photomultiplier tube, this superior measurement capability is within reach if the readout electronics are sufficiently performant. As a result of the funding of this proposal, we have achieved our primary goals. 1) We have developed from scratch or improved upon existing designs of the full chain of electronics that can maintain the performance of a TOF detector from the output of the photo-sensor to the recording of a compressed data packet containing the timing information. We have accomplished this with a cost effective modular approach such that some or all of the components in the chain could easily be adapted for use in diverse particle physics experiments or in other areas where precise timing is required, such as medical and homeland security devices.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA) Polychlorinated Biphenyl (PCB)/Radioactive Waste Annual Inventory for Calendar Year 2014

The Toxic Substances Control Act, 40 CFR 761.65(a)(1) provides an exemption from the one year storage time limit for PCB/radioactive waste. PCB/radioactive waste may exceed the one year time limit provided that the provisions at 40 CFR 761.65(a)(2)(ii) and 40 CFR 761.65(a)(2)(iii) are followed. These two subsections require, (ii) "A written record documenting all continuing attempts to secure disposal is maintained until the waste is disposed of" and (iii) "The written record required by subsection (ii) of this section is available for inspection or submission if requested by EPA." EPA Region 10 has requested the Department of Energy (DOE) to submit an inventory of radioactive-contaminated PCB waste in storage at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) for the previous calendar year. The annual inventory is separated into two parts, INL without Advanced Mixed Waste Treatment Project (AMWTP) (this includes Battelle Energy Alliance, LLC, CH2M-WG Idaho, LLC, and the Naval Reactors Facility), and AMWTP.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Impacts of the EISA 2007 Energy Efficiency Standard on General Service Lamps

The Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975, as amended by the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA 2007), requires that, effective beginning January 1, 2020, the Secretary of Energy shall prohibit the sale of any general service lamp (GSL) that does not meet a minimum efficacy standard of 45 lumens per watt. This is referred to as the EISA 2007 backstop. The U.S. Department of Energy recently revised the definition of the term GSL to include certain lamps that were either previously excluded or not explicitly mentioned in the EISA 2007 definition. For this subset of GSLs, we assess the impacts of the EISA 2007 backstop on national energy consumption, carbon dioxide emissions, and consumer expenditures. To estimate these impacts, we projected the energy use, purchase price, and operating cost of representative lamps purchased during a 30-year analysis period, 2020-2049, for cases in which the EISA 2007 backstop does and does not take effect; the impacts of the backstop are then given by the difference between the two cases. In developing the projection model, we also performed the most comprehensive assessment to date of usage patterns and lifetime distributions for the analyzed lamp types in the United States. There is substantial uncertainty in the estimated impacts, which arises from uncertainty in the speed and extent of the market conversion to solid state lighting technology that would occur in the absence of the EISA 2007 backstop. In our central estimate we find that the EISA 2007 backstop results in significant energy savings of 27 quads and consumer net present value of $120 billion (at a seven percent discount rate) for lamps shipped between 2020 and 2049, and carbon dioxide emissions reduction of 540 million metric tons by 2030 for those GSLs not explicitly included in the EISA 2007 definition of a GSL.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Impact of the EISA 2007 Energy Efficiency Standard on General Service Lamps

The Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975, as amended by the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA 2007), requires that, effective beginning January 1, 2020, the Secretary of Energy shall prohibit the sale of any general service lamp (GSL) that does not meet a minimum efficacy standard of 45 lumens per watt. This is referred to as the EISA 2007 backstop. The U.S. Department of Energy recently revised the definition of the term GSL to include certain lamps that were either previously excluded or not explicitly mentioned in the EISA 2007 definition. For this subset of GSLs, we assess the impacts of the EISA 2007 backstop on national energy consumption, carbon dioxide emissions, and consumer expenditures. To estimate these impacts, we projected the energy use, purchase price, and operating cost of representative lamps purchased during a 30-year analysis period, 2020-2049, for cases in which the EISA 2007 backstop does and does not take effect; the impacts of the backstop are then given by the difference between the two cases. In developing the projection model, we also performed the most comprehensive assessment to date of usage patterns and lifetime distributions for the analyzed lamp types in the United States. There is substantial uncertainty in the estimated impacts, which arises from uncertainty in the speed and extent of the market conversion to solid state lighting technology that would occur in the absence of the EISA 2007 backstop. In our central estimate we find that the EISA 2007 backstop results in significant energy savings of 27 quads and consumer net present value of $120 billion (at a seven percent discount rate) for lamps shipped between 2020 and 2049, and carbon dioxide emissions reduction of 540 million metric tons by 2030 for those GSLs not explicitly included in the EISA 2007 definition of a GSL.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

ASSERT FY16 Analysis of Feedstock Companion Markets

Meeting Co-Optima biofuel production targets will require large quantities of mobilized biomass feedstock. Mobilization is of key importance as there is an abundance of biomass resources, yet little is available for purchase, let alone at desired quantity and quality levels needed for a continuous operation, e.g., a biorefinery. Therefore Co-Optima research includes outlining a path towards feedstock production at scale by understanding routes to mobilizing large quantities of biomass feedstock. Continuing along the vertically-integrated path that pioneer cellulosic biorefineries have taken will constrain the bioenergy industry to high biomass yield areas, limiting its ability to reach biofuel production at scale. To advance the cellulosic biofuels industry, a separation between feedstock supply and conversion is necessary. Thus, in contrast to the vertically integrated supply chain, two industries are required: a feedstock industry and a conversion industry. The split is beneficial for growers and feedstock processers as they are able to sell into multiple markets. That is, depots that produce value-add feedstock intermediates that are fully fungible in both the biofuels refining and other, so-called companion markets. As the biofuel industry is currently too small to leverage significant investment in up-stream infrastructure build-up, it requires an established (companion) market to secure demand, which de-risks potential investments and makes a build-up of processing and other logistics infrastructure more likely. A common concern to this theory however is that more demand by other markets could present a disadvantage for biofuels production as resource competition may increase prices leading to reduced availability of low-cost feedstock for biorefineries. To analyze the dynamics across multiple markets vying for the same resources, particularly the potential effects on resource price and distribution, the Companion Market Model (CMM) has been developed in this task by experts in feedstock supply chain analysis, market economics, and System Dynamics from the Idaho National Laboratory and MindsEye Computing.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

A Report on the Implementation of Smart Grids in Mexico

As part of Mexico's implementation of its constitutional energy reform and the transformation of its electric power industry, Mexico is addressing the central importance of a modernized grid. The energy sector reform laws establish a Smart Grid Program to make Mexico's power grid capable of meeting the country's lofty clean energy goals while improving efficiencies, maintaining system reliability, and increasing its security. Implementing Smart Grids in Mexico required a compilation of data and information from many sources that document Mexico's progress in implementing a Smart Grid. In this report, various knowledge experts contribute with an assessment on the topics of the legislation that created the sectoral transformation now underway; the state of smart grid technology in Mexico's power sector and the efforts undertaken to date; a review of policy in the power sector describing the development of the Smart Grid Implementation Plan by the Ministry of Energy; a review of Mexico's priorities for smart grid deployment; the mapping of several smart grid measures to the specific smart grid drivers; substantial detail from smart grid experts from NREL and from Swedish smart grid research centers describing smart grid measures to assist Mexico's move to a cleaner, more-efficient grid; institutional policies that are recommended for smart grid growth; discussion of some of the barriers to smart grid deployment, including cybersecurity concerns and consumer receptivity.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

An Architectural Survey of the Test Cell C Historic District, Area 25, Nevada National Security Site, Nye County, Nevada

The U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office (NNSA/NFO) has authorized an updated recording and evaluation of Test Cell C. This facility is part of the former Nuclear Rocket Development Station (NRDS) in Area 25 of Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) in Nye County, Nevada (formerly the Nevada Test Site [NTS]). Future alterations to the facility are anticipated to meet current and future National Weapons Science, Global and Homeland Security Programs, and Environmental Management mission requirements. Therefore, this survey was done to comply with requirements of Section 106 of the National Historic Preservation Act and its implementing regulations, 36 C.F.R. Part 800. An architectural survey of 35.75 acres was completed by Desert Research Institute (DRI). This area also represents the potential Test Cell C Historic District and is identified by NNSA/NFO as the Area of Potential Effect (APE) within which the undertaking may directly cause alterations to the character of historic properties. One resource, Building 25-3210 (SHPO Resource No. B2444), within this area was previously surveyed by DRI. It was found eligible for inclusion in the National Register of Historic Places (NRHP or National Register) under Criteria A and C, and Consideration G. Mitigation of this building was completed prior to its demolition. The APE for reasonably foreseeable effects that may indirectly cause alterations later in time, be farther removed in distance, or be cumulative is the unrecorded NRDS historic district. The present survey updates the previous survey to present standards and expands it to include the entire Test Cell C complex. This includes updated recording and evaluation of the remains of 25-3210 and its 32 previously unrecorded and unevaluated Accessory Resources. The entire complex was recorded as the Test Cell C Historic District (SHPO Resource No. D346), which is eligible for the National Register at the National Level under Criteria A, C, and D. All nine architectural resources in the district are recommended as contributing elements of the Test Cell C Historic District (Figure 2). Of these, four (25-3210 Resource No. B2444, 25-3220 SHPO Resource No. B18110, 25-3226 SHPO Resource No. B18111, and 25-3230-32 SHPO Resource No. B18114) are recommended as individually eligible to the National Register under Criteria A and C, and one (KIWI-TNT [Transient Nuclear Test] SHPO Resource No. S2287) is recommended as individually eligible under Criteria A, C, and D. The remaining four resources (25-3214 SHPO Resource No. B18109, 25-3228 SHPO Resource No. B18112, 25-3229 SHPO Resource No. B18113, and 25-3233 SHPO Resource No. 18115) are not recommended as individually eligible. In addition, the Test Cell C Historic District is regarded as a contributor to the potential national significance of the NRDS Historic District. In 2010, the NTS became the NNSS. Because of the nature of the discussion in the Historic Context below, “NTS” is used throughout that section, otherwise “NNSS” is used to refer to the site. The survey area is located in unplatted sections of T13S R51E Mount Diablo Baseline and Meridian (projected) in Area 25 of the NNSS. It is within the NRDS in Jackass Flats, which has long been recognized as a potential historic district. An oblique aerial photo of the Test Cell C complex is shown on the cover of this report.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Report series: Evaluation, Finding of Effect, and Mitigation Documentation for the 1960s Dormitories and 1950s Quonset Hut Foundations, Mercury, Area 23, Nevada National Security Site, Nye County, Nevada [3 Reports Consolidated]

The U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office (NNSA/NFO) plans to modernize the town of Mercury at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) in Nye County, Nevada, to meet current and future National Weapons Science, Global and Homeland Security Programs, and Environmental Management mission requirements. These plans—including anticipated demolitions, consolidations, and rebuilding at Mercury—are considered an undertaking subject to review under Title 54 U.S.C. § 306108, commonly known as Section 106 of the National Historic Preservation Act, Title 54 U.S.C. § 300101, et seq., and its implementing regulations, 36 C.F.R. Part 800. Desert Research Institute (DRI) completed an architectural survey of Mercury in 2017. This effort resulted in the identification, recording, and evaluation of the Mercury Historic District, as well as the identification of its contributing components. This district was recommended eligible to the National Register of Historic Places (NRHP or National Register) under Criteria A and C, but was unevaluated under Criteria B and D at that time. The Mercury Historic District contains 153 individual landscapes, buildings, and structures. Of these resources, DRI recommends all except one as contributing elements of the historic district during its period of significance corresponding to nuclear testing from 1951 through 1992. During most of the Cold War, the land now called the NNSS was referred to as the Nevada Test Site (NTS). This report evaluates resources dating to the 1950s and 1960s between Jangle and Knothole Streets and south of Ranger Avenue in Mercury prior to the proposed demolition of all resources in that area between Sandstone and Greenhouse Avenues as a phase of the larger modernization program mentioned above. Although the Mercury Historic District as a whole is eligible to the National Register, further evaluation of these properties, as detailed in this report, indicates that none are individually eligible under any of the Secretary of Interior’s Significance Criteria, either at the national or local level.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Architecture of Area 12 Camp - Nevada's Atomic Ghost Town. An Architectural Survey of Area 12 Camp, Nevada National Security Site, Nye County, Nevada

The U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office (NNSA/NFO) plans to demolish 10 buildings and one structure in Area 12 Camp at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) in Nye County, Nevada, to meet current and future National Weapons Science, Global and Homeland Security Program, and Environmental Management mission requirements and to reduce dangers to site workers from some of these resources. These demolitions constitute an undertaking subject to review under Title 54 U.S.C. § 306108, commonly known as Section 106 of the National Historic Preservation Act, Title 54 U.S.C. § 300101, et seq., and its implementing regulations, 36 C.F.R. Part 800. These resources were recorded and evaluated as individually ineligible for the National Register of Historic Places (National Register or NRHP) by Menocal and Shaw (2019). Upon review by the Nevada State Historic Preservation Office (SHPO) and internal review by Desert Research Institute (DRI) and NNSA/NFO staff, it was determined that these resources needed to be rerecorded and evaluated in relation to what appeared to be a National Register-eligible Historic District made up of the entirety of Area 12 Camp. Based on preliminary information, it appeared that all 11 resources would likely be contributing elements of that historic district. With that assumption in mind, recording of the entire proposed Area 12 Camp Historic District was done for three purposes. First, it would result in a definitive significance evaluation of the 11 resources in question. Second, recording of the entire camp would be offered as an appropriate mitigation measure for the demolition of these resources. Third, it would present an essential background for future management of resources within the district boundaries. Prior to the present survey, Area 12 Camp had not yet been systematically recorded; therefore, DRI surveyed an area of approximately 229 acres for architectural resources. This effort resulted in the identification, recording, and evaluation of the Area 12 Camp Historic District (SHPO Resource No. D372), including the identification of its contributing components. This district is recommended eligible for the National Register of Historic Places under Criteria A and C. It is unevaluated under Criteria B and D. The Area 12 Historic District contains 71 Principal Resources, which include landscapes, buildings, and structures. Of these resources, 69 (including 10 of the 11 resources to be removed) are recommended as contributing elements of the historic district during its period of significance corresponding to nuclear testing from 1960 through 1992. During most of the Cold War, the government reservation now called the NNSS was named the Nevada Test Site (NTS).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Volume 9: Critical Facility with Add-On Ion Beam

Completion of the originally planned critical facility has been considered as part of the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) Sustaining and Enhancing Neutron Science Initiative at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). A working group of ORNL staff members was formed to develop the idea and to recommend one or more configurations to best support future HFIR operations and scientific capacities. HFIR was designed with a critical pool in the reactor bay that was projected to be outfitted as a critical facility. The primary purpose of the planned critical facility was to measure the subcritical worth of fresh fuel elements to support startup requirements. However, the Y-12 National Security Complex already housed a critical facility that was used for this purpose. This report presents the working group’s efforts, including determination of the proposed critical facility’s high-impact benefits. A generic low-power critical facility would be employed for reactor physics measurements, code and data validation, reactor operator and staff training, and education. This facility would be instrumental in supporting current HFIR operations, conversion of HFIR to low-enriched uranium, existing light water reactor operations, and advanced reactor development and deployment.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Advanced Reactor Supply Chain Assessment (GAIN Report)

Several net-zero scenario evaluations predict a rapid ramp up of nuclear energy in the coming decades. If this materializes, it will most likely strain the supply chains associated with the potential advanced reactor concepts awaiting deployment. To help assess the current and potential capacities of the various advanced reactor supply chains, the Gateway for Accelerated Innovation in Nuclear (GAIN) conducted a survey of companies able to produce components for advanced reactors in the near future (namely for sodium, gas-cooled, and molten salt reactors). Using an aggressive nuclear deployment scenario, the objective was to assess the ability of the various supply chains to meet the considerable demand projections for certain key components (vessels, heat exchangers, pumps, graphite, and sensors) and identify potential challenges. While individual companies were unable to meet the most optimistic nuclear deployment rate projections, it was found that on aggregate, a United States-based supply chain projected that expansion could be ramped up to meet a larger future demand of these components. However, meeting projected demand for several more complex items (namely gas or salt heat exchangers) was found to be more challenging. Deploying new reactors at scale necessitates the production of more and more supply chain components, requiring a ramp up in production. Supply chain companies were surveyed, and respondents appeared less able to meet short term demand (next year) versus longer-term demand projections (5 and 10 years). This reflects the need to obtain orders with adequate lead times (can range from 3 to 30 months). Future demand will need to be met by expanding existing capacity. These expansions will require suppliers to raise capital or secure other types of support (federal loans or grants) to invest in facilities, equipment, and workforce. Individual suppliers indicated financial investments could be in the range of $\$ $100 million to $\$ $1 billion for their own facilities (depending on the type of facility). The biggest risk, according to respondents, related to general uncertainties surrounding the future nuclear industry and whether the potential demand projections will materialize into real demand that is actionable from a business perspective. Businesses do not seem willing to take investments risks without clear orders. If businesses are not able to invest to expand the supply, it will either delay the deployment of advanced nuclear technology, or the supply chain will be met by suppliers outside of the United States. This report only focuses on the domestic supply chain’s ability to meet the various projections stipulated here for the specific assessed components (vessels, heat exchangers, pumps, graphite, and sensors). The report does not cover all reactor designs or all components that may ultimately be needed for any one reactor design. It also does not address whether any specific aspect of the supply chain will be cost competitive in the global market, nor how potential state-backed entities could affect the expansion of a United States-based supply chain. The largest challenges in ramping up capacity among respondents appear to be workforce related. This includes workforce availability, experience, training, and turnover. In addition to facility investment, suppliers will also need to invest heavily in long-term workforce training to meet production goals. This issue is not nuclear-specific, and the expansion of any supply chain will likely face similar challenges. While suppliers evaluated expected normal business demand from other markets outside of nuclear, it is possible that other market segments could expand more than predicted and compete for the same suppliers. One potential market that may compete for the same supplier resources is the United States military, as many of these suppliers support both the commercial nuclear sector as well as the Navy with reactors and components. In summary, suppliers in the United States believe that there is a way to increase production in order to begin meeting the demand which will exist for advanced reactors—as long as appropriate investments can be made in the supply chain in an appropriate timeframe. Based on the capacity projections and lead times, investment will be needed to meet the 5-year and 10-year production targets. Therefore, if significant nuclear deployment is to occur in the 2030s, investment and ramp up of the advanced nuclear supply chain will need to begin in the near future for the United States to successfully deploy these advanced reactors with domestic supply chains.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

ARENA: Adversary-Resistant Evolving Neural Architectures

Neural networks are becoming the cornerstone for national security prediction tasks. However, designing them requires significant research and trial/error, as they have many hyperparameters, including their computation graph (“architecture”). Neural architecture search (NAS) employs secondary optimizers to search for architectures maximizing objectives like accuracy. Evolutionary algorithms (EAs) are the most used class of optimizer for NAS. However, existing Python libraries for writing EAs limit the complexity of experiments a user can design. In this project, we built ARENA, a Python framework that encodes complex, hyper-realistic EAs. ARENA collects detailed information as it runs and is flexible enough to encode non-EA search algorithms. We tested ARENA on 4 toy optimization problems by encoding 3 search algorithms for each—random search, an EA, and simulated annealing. We also designed an EA that performs NAS on the MNIST dataset. Our experiments suggest the potential for immediate mission impact through solving lab-wide optimization problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Enabling the Electrification of Offshore Activities – Co-Demonstration of Next-Generation Autonomous Offshore Power System and Resident, Uncrewed Mobile and Static Assets at PacWave Wave Energy Test Site

Oceans cover two-thirds of the earth's surface and form the world's biggest and best – yet largely untapped – battery. Ocean waves have more energy density than other renewables, including wind, solar, and biomass, and have the potential to supply 4x the world's annual energy consumption (Masterson, 2022; Zic, 2020). In addition to the impact wave energy can have on decarbonizing and diversifying the electric grid, it offers a significant value proposition in the emerging blue economy sector (LiVecchi et al, 2019). The blue economy consists of industries operating offshore, including shipping, oil and gas, defense and security, aquaculture, and research. These industries require bringing people and energy on site to perform daily work, but current energy costs in the blue economy are extremely high. Here, the prevailing processes are complex, including shore dependencies and fuel transportation logistics. Few alternatives for reliable power generation exist, with the most prominent being high cost and high carbon emissions diesel generation. Because of this lack of affordable, reliable power, the trends of electrification, digitization, and automation that have led to substantial innovation and improvements in the terrestrial economy over the last two decades are slow to come to the blue economy.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗