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DOE OSTI2020

Practice Summary: Improved Reliability via Optimization in Residential Microgrids

Southern Company is an electric utility that is embracing residential microgrids as a platform for distributed energy. The first residential microgrid in the southeastern United States was constructed in Hoover, Alabama, as a testbed for development. To operate the microgrid, we developed an optimization model for unit commitment and economic dispatch. We report the optimization model was implemented in a microgrid central controller and tested under various operational scenarios. Challenges also include developing a pricing algorithm to deliver price forecasts to the residential homes in the microgrid and open-source software restrictions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Potential Fuel Cycle Cost Reductions of Once Through HALEU Reactors

This report looks to identify potential cost reduction opportunities for SFR and HTGR reactors using HALEU fuel. This analysis focuses on how learning rates and experience from other industries could translate to future HALEU fueled reactor fuel cycles. Various fuel loading and residence scenarios are evaluated to estimate areas of potential cost savings. Cost savings from location optimization is explored for both fresh and spent nuclear fuel. Additional analysis was completed to estimate cost savings through improved labor productivity.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS2006

Mission Scenario Development Workbench

The Mission Scenario Development Workbench (MSDW) is a multidisciplinary performance analysis software tool for planning and optimizing space missions. It provides a number of new capabilities that are particularly useful for planning the surface activities on other planets. MSDW enables rapid planning of a space mission and supports flight system and scientific-instrumentation trades. It also provides an estimate of the ability of flight, ground, and science systems to meet high-level mission goals and provides means of evaluating expected mission performance at an early stage of planning in the project life cycle. In MSDW, activity plans and equipment-list spreadsheets are integrated with validated parameterized simulation models of spacecraft systems. In contrast to traditional approaches involving worst-case estimates with large margins, the approach embodied in MSDW affords more flexibility and more credible results early in the lifecycle through the use of validated, variable- fidelity models of spacecraft systems. MSDW is expected to help maximize the scientific return on investment for space missions by understanding early the performance required to have a successful mission while reducing the risk of costly design changes made at late stages in the project life cycle.

Kordon, Mark↗

NASA NTRS2016

Performance Evaluation of the Approaches and Algorithms for Hamburg Airport Operations

The German Aerospace Center (DLR) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) have been independently developing and testing their own concepts and tools for airport surface traffic management. Although these concepts and tools have been tested individually for European and US airports, they have never been compared or analyzed side-by-side. This paper presents the collaborative research devoted to the evaluation and analysis of two different surface management concepts. Hamburg Airport was used as a common test bed airport for the study. First, two independent simulations using the same traffic scenario were conducted: one by the DLR team using the Controller Assistance for Departure Optimization (CADEO) and the Taxi Routing for Aircraft: Creation and Controlling (TRACC) in a real-time simulation environment, and one by the NASA team based on the Spot and Runway Departure Advisor (SARDA) in a fast-time simulation environment. A set of common performance metrics was defined. The simulation results showed that both approaches produced operational benefits in efficiency, such as reducing taxi times, while maintaining runway throughput. Both approaches generated the gate pushback schedule to meet the runway schedule, such that the runway utilization was maximized. The conflict-free taxi guidance by TRACC helped avoid taxi conflicts and reduced taxiing stops, but the taxi benefit needed be assessed together with runway throughput to analyze the overall performance objective.

air traffic management↗

NASA NTRS2016

Performance Evaluation of the Approaches and Algorithms using Hamburg Airport Operations

The German Aerospace Center (DLR) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) have been independently developing and testing their own concepts and tools for airport surface traffic management. Although these concepts and tools have been tested individually for European and US airports, they have never been compared or analyzed side-by-side. This paper presents the collaborative research devoted to the evaluation and analysis of two different surface management concepts. Hamburg Airport was used as a common test bed airport for the study. First, two independent simulations using the same traffic scenario were conducted: one by the DLR team using the Controller Assistance for Departure Optimization (CADEO) and the Taxi Routing for Aircraft58; Creation and Controlling (TRACC) in a real-time simulation environment, and one by the NASA team based on the Spot and Runway Departure Advisor (SARDA) in a fast-time simulation environment. A set of common performance metrics was defined. The simulation results showed that both approaches produced operational benefits in efficiency, such as reducing taxi times, while maintaining runway throughput. Both approaches generated the gate pushback schedule to meet the runway schedule, such that the runway utilization was maximized. The conflict-free taxi guidance by TRACC helped avoid taxi conflicts and reduced taxiing stops, but the taxi benefit needed be assessed together with runway throughput to analyze the overall performance objective.

Airport surface operations↗

NASA NTRS2016

Performance Evaluation of the Approaches and Algorithms Using Hamburg Airport Operations

The German Aerospace Center (DLR) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) have been independently developing and testing their own concepts and tools for airport surface traffic management. Although these concepts and tools have been tested individually for European and US airports, they have never been compared or analyzed side-by-side. This paper presents the collaborative research devoted to the evaluation and analysis of two different surface management concepts. Hamburg Airport was used as a common test bed airport for the study. First, two independent simulations using the same traffic scenario were conducted; one by the DLR team using the Controller Assistance for Departure Optimization (CADEO) and the Taxi Routing for Aircraft: Creation and Controlling (TRACC) in a real-time simulation environment, and one by the NASA team based on the Spot and Runway Departure Advisor (SARDA) in a fast-time simulation environment. A set of common performance metrics was defined. The simulation results showed that both approaches produced operational benefits in efficiency, such as reducing taxi times, while maintaining runway throughput. Both approaches generated the gate pushback schedule to meet the runway schedule, such that the runway utilization was maximized. The conflict-free taxi guidance by TRACC helped avoid taxi conflicts and reduced taxiing stops, but the taxi benefit needed be assessed together with runway throughput to analyze the overall performance objective.

nasa-dlr research collaboration↗

NASA NTRS2019

Scenario Complexity for Unmanned Aircraft System Traffic

This work introduces an approach to estimate the complexity of a low-altitude air traffic scenario involving multiple UASs using mathematical programming. Given a set of multi-point UAS flight trajectories, vehicle dynamics, and a conflict resolution algorithm, an abstract model is developed such that it can be solved quickly using a mathematical programming optimization software without running high-fidelity simulations that can be computationally expensive and may not suit real-time apA quick and accurate assessment of complexity for a given traffic scenario can help plan and schedule flights to alleviate traffic bottleneck and mitigate operation risks, especially for unmanned aerial system traffic management where high traffic density or complexity is expected. This work introduces a traffic scenario complexity metric that was constructed based on the number of potential conflicts weighted by the conflict resolution cost associated. The cost associated with a conflict is calculated based on the corresponding conflict resolution maneuvers. To obtain the conflict resolution maneuvers, a MILP-based optimization was formulated with the vehicle model and conflict management parameters incorporated. To evaluate the complexity metrics, an approach of using measurements from high-fidelity simulations was proposed. The scenario complexity measurements for 920 random-generated scenarios were obtained through high-fidelity simulations and treated as the ground truth. Two statistics methods: Pearson and Alternative Conditional Expectations were applied for analysis. The results showed that the number of flights has low correlation with the scenario complexity according to the correlation coefficients calculated by both methods. The Alternative Conditional Expectations method shows that the proposed scenario complexity metric has better correlation with the ground truth than the number of potential conflicts.plications. In the abstract model, each vehicle is represented by a time-varied vector associated with position, speed, and heading information. The total extra distance that aircraft need to divert from their original routes to avoid collisions is computed and used to setup a quadratic programming formula. The metrics including the number of conflicts and extra distances travelled by all vehicles are then utilized to estimate the complexity of a given UAS flight scenario. Results and verification against high-fidelity simulations will be provided in the final draft.

traffic complexity↗

DOE OSTI2024

Adaptive Power Flow Approximations With Second-Order Sensitivity Insights

The power flow equations are fundamental to power system planning, analysis, and control. However, the inherent non-linearity and non-convexity of these equations present formidable obstacles in problem-solving processes. To mitigate these challenges, recent research has proposed adaptive power flow linearizations that aim to achieve accuracy over wide operating ranges. The accuracy of these approximations inherently depends on the curvature of the power flow equations within these ranges, which necessitates considering second-order sensitivities. In this paper, we leverage second-order sensitivities to both analyze and improve power flow approximations. We evaluate the curvature across broad operational ranges and subsequently utilize this information to inform the computation of various sample-based power flow approximation techniques. Additionally, we leverage second-order sensitivities to guide the development of rational approximations that yield linear constraints in optimization problems. In conclusion, this approach is extended to enhance accuracy beyond the limitations of linear functions across varied operational scenarios.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optimal sizing of battery energy storage systems for peak shaving and demand response using a degradation-aware Bayesian Optimization-Mixed-Integer Linear Programming framework

The increasing integration of renewable energy and rising electricity demand highlight the importance of battery energy storage systems for peak shaving and demand response. Unlike prior approaches that overlook operational impacts on degradation, this study proposes a Bayesian Optimization–Mixed Integer Linear Programming framework for optimal battery energy storage system sizing. In this framework, Mixed Integer Linear Programming determines short-term scheduling while a calibrated electrochemical model iteratively evaluates degradation. The central hypothesis is that the framework can efficiently identify optimal sizes that yield realistic and economically robust outcomes. The method is tested across three scenarios: peak shaving, peak shaving with energy-reduction demand response, and peak shaving with power-reduction demand response. Results show that the framework converge to the optimum within 20 iterations out of 150 possible sizes. Under baseline conditions, the framework consistently selects the smallest feasible system, minimizing unnecessary degradation costs from oversized storage. Sensitivity analyses reveal that larger systems are favored as demand rates or incentives increase. Comparisons of demand response programs indicate that power-reduction demand response offers greater economic benefits than energy-reduction demand response, although demand savings from peak shaving remain the dominant contributor to overall performance. This study demonstrates that the proposed framework balances computational tractability with degradation fidelity, identifies critical economic thresholds for investment, and offers a practical, flexible tool to guide industrial stakeholders in cost-effective battery energy storage system deployment.

Batteries↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Propulsive Trajectory Optimization to Minimize Surface Contamination

Descent retroburns using hydrazine thrusters will generate contaminants in their exhaust that can alter underlying samples, such as water-rich surfaces coinciding with possible life signatures or other science measurements of interest. We present an optimization technique that aims to autonomously minimize contamination during surface approach and landing for propulsive vehicles. In addition to short-range hoppers, the optimization technique is also fully applicable to traditional orbit-to-surface landers. This study addresses scenarios where surface alterations from propulsion events are counterproductive or hazardous to the mission objectives. This is of interest for landers (whether human or robotic), that may rely on pristine soils collected in the immediate vicinity of landing sites to accomplish science investigations, mining, or In Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) surface operations. Such missions are averse to various surface-plume interactions such as thermal scoring, physical agitation, and contamination. The capability can be applied with minimal impact to the baseline concept.

Plume↗

DOE OSTI2022

On the operational characteristics and economic value of pumped thermal energy storage

Pumped thermal energy storage (PTES) systems use an electrically-driven heat pump to store electricity in the form of thermal energy, and subsequently dispatch the stored thermal energy to generate electricity using a thermodynamic heat engine. Optimal day-ahead operational scheduling and annual value of a PTES system based on Joule-Brayton thermodynamic cycles and two-tank molten salt hot thermal storage is evaluated in this work. Production cost models, which simultaneously optimize commitment and dispatch schedules for an entire set of generators to minimize the cost of satisfying electricity demand, are employed to determine system-optimal operation and day-ahead energy value of the PTES system within each of six hypothetical near-future grid scenarios intended to approximately represent the U.S. Western Interconnection or the Texas Interconnection. Sensitivity to grid scenario (including the contribution of variable renewable energy sources), thermal storage capacity, relative heat pump and heat engine capacities, and startup/shutdown cycling costs are evaluated. PTES energy value and heat engine annual capacity factor increase strongly as the contribution of variable renewable resources increases, heat pump capacity increases relative to heat engine capacity, or PTES cycling costs decrease. Grid scenarios in which the contribution of variable renewable energy is dominated by solar photovoltaics (PV) vs. wind produce inherently different PTES operational patterns. Annual PTES energy value within PV-dominated scenarios increased with storage capacity only up to approximately seven hours of full-load discharge capacity, whereas that within wind-dominated scenarios exhibited a continual increase with storage duration up to at least 16 hours.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2020

A Method and Model to Predict Initial Failure Rates

It has long been well known that actual system reliability typically falls well short of early estimates. Failure rates are often ten or more times higher than anticipated. Many reasons have been given for this, but over-optimism is the fundamental cause of too-favorable reliability predictions. Most forecasts of reliability are essentially best-case scenarios, as are predictions of budget and schedule. Confident engineers assemble estimates bottom-up, including the known factors and ignoring problems that they hope won’t happen. Traditional reliability estimation is based on simply summing up the component failure rates. This ignores most actual failure causes. The way to reduce over-optimism is to use the historical system level failure rate from similar projects. Adjustments should not be made based purely on engineering judgment, but only if there is so logical quantitative justification. The traditional component-based reliability estimate is useful as a lower bound on the system failure rate. The difference between this lower bound component-based reliability and the historical system level reliability indicates how much of the total failure rate is due to system level problems rather than component failures.

Jones, Harry W.↗

NASA NTRS2020

A Method and Model to Predict Initial Failure Rates

It has long been well known that actual system reliability typically falls well short of early estimates. Failure rates are often ten or more times higher than anticipated. Many reasons have been given for this, but over-optimism is the fundamental cause of too-favorable reliability predictions. Most forecasts of reliability are essentially best-case scenarios, as are predictions of budget and schedule. Confident engineers assemble estimates bottom-up, including the known factors and ignoring problems that they hope won't happen. Traditional reliability estimation is based on simply summing up the component failure rates. This ignores most actual failure causes. The way to reduce over-optimism is to use the historical system level failure rate from similar projects. Adjustments should not be made based purely on engineering judgment, but only if there is so logical quantitative justification. The traditional component-based reliability estimate is useful as a lower bound on the system failure rate. The difference between this lower bound component-based reliability and the historical system level reliability indicates how much of the total failure rate is due to system level problems rather than component failures

Jones, Harry W.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Optimization of NTP System Truss to Reduce Radiation Shield Mass

The benefits of nuclear thermal propulsion are numerous and relevant to the current NASA mission goals involving but not limited to the crewed missions to mars and the moon. They do however also present new and unique challenges to the design and logistics of launching/operating spacecraft. One of these challenges, relevant to this discussion, is the significant mass of the shielding which is required to ensure an acceptable radiation environment for the spacecraft and crew. Efforts to reduce shielding mass are difficult to accomplish from material and geometric design points of the shield itself, however by increasing the distance between the nuclear engines and the main body of the spacecraft the required mass of the shielding is lessened considerably. The mass can be reduced significantly per unit length, though any additional mass added by the structure to create this distance serves to offset those savings, thus the design of a lightweight structure is ideal. The challenges of designing the truss are bounded by several limiting factors including; the loading conditions, the capabilities of the launch vehicle, and achieving the ideal truss length when factoring for the overall mass reduced. Determining the overall set of mass values for a truss of varying length is difficult since to maintain an optimally designed truss the geometry of the truss or its members must change. Thus the relation between truss mass and length for these loading scenarios is not linear, and instead has relation determined by the truss design. In order to establish a mass versus length trend for various truss designs to compare with the mass saved from the shield versus length, optimization software was used to find optimal geometric properties that still met the design requirements at established lengths. By solving for optimal designs at various lengths, mass trends could be determined. The initial design findings show a clear benefit to extending the engines as far from the main structure of the spacecraft as the launch vehicle's payload volume would allow when comparing mass savings verse the additional structure.

Scharber, Luke L.↗

DOE OSTI2020

An error-in-constitutive equations strategy for topology optimization for frequency-domain dynamics

This paper presents a topology optimization formulation for frequency-domain dynamics to reduce solution dependence upon initial guess and considered loading conditions. Due to resonance phenomena in undamped steady-state dynamics, objectives measuring dynamic response possess many local minima that may represent poor solutions to a design problem, an issue exacerbated for design with respect to multiple frequencies. In this work, we propose an extension of the modified error-in-constitutive-equations (MECE) method, used previously in material identification inverse problems, as a new approach for frequency-domain dynamics topology optimization to mitigate these issues. The main idea of the proposed framework is to incorporate an additional penalty-like term in the objective function that measures the discrepancy in the constitutive relations between stresses and strains and between inertial forces and displacements. Then, the design problem is cast within a PDE-constrained optimization formulation in which we seek displacements, stresses, inertial forces, and a density-field solution that minimize our new objective subject to conservation of linear momentum plus some additional constraints. We show that this approach yields superior designs to conventional gradient-based optimization approaches that solely use a functional of displacements as the objective, while strictly enforcing the constitutive equations. The MECE strategy integrates into a density-based topology optimization scheme for void–solid or two-phase material structural design. We highlight the merits of our approach in a variety of scenarios for direct frequency response design, considering multiple frequency load cases and structural objectives.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling hydrogen markets: Energy system model development status and decarbonization scenario results

Hydrogen can be used as an energy carrier and chemical feedstock to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, especially in difficult-to-decarbonize markets such as medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, aviation and maritime, iron and steel, and the production of fuels and chemicals. Significant literature has been accumulated on engineering-based assessments of various hydrogen technologies, and real-world projects are validating technology performance at larger scales and for low-carbon supply chains. While energy system models continue to be updated to track this progress, many are currently limited in their representation of hydrogen, and as a group they tend to generate highly variable results under decarbonization constraints. Here, the present work provides insights into the development status and decarbonization scenario results of 15 energy system models participating in study 37 of the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF37), focusing on the U.S. energy system. The models and scenario results vary widely in multiple respects: hydrogen technology representation, scope and type of hydrogen end-use markets, relative optimism of hydrogen technology input assumptions, and market uptake results reported for 2050 under various decarbonization assumptions. Most models report hydrogen market uptake increasing with decarbonization constraints, though some models report high carbon prices being required to achieve these increases and some find hydrogen does not compete well when assuming optimistic assumptions for all advanced decarbonization technologies. Across various scenarios, hydrogen market success tends to have an inverse relationship to success with direct air capture (DAC) and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies. While most model-scenario combinations predict modest hydrogen uptake by 2050 – <10 million metric tons (MMT) – aggregating the top 10 % of market uptake results across sectors suggests an upper range demand potential of 42–223 MMT. The high degree of variability across both modeling methods and market uptake results suggests that increased harmonization of both input assumptions and subsector competition scope would lead to more consistent results across energy system models. The wide variability in results indicates strongly divergent conclusions on the role of hydrogen in a decarbonized energy future.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2024

Optimal Stopping Ages for Colorectal Cancer Screening

Importance Prior studies have shown that the benefits, harms, and costs of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening at older ages are associated with a patient’s sex, health, and screening history. However, these studies were hypothetical exercises and not directly informed by data on CRC risk. Objective To identify the optimal stopping ages for CRC screening by sex, comorbidity, and screening history from a cost-effectiveness perspective. Design, Setting, and Participants This economic evaluation first validated the MISCAN-Colon (Microsimulation Screening Analysis–Colon) model against community-based CRC incidence and mortality rates for 2 subcohorts of the PRECISE (Optimizing Colorectal Cancer Screening Precision and Outcomes in Community-Based Populations) cohort. Subsequently, different CRC screening scenarios were simulated in older individuals. Cohorts of US adults aged 76 to 90 years varied by sex and comorbidity status (none, low, moderate, or severe). Statistical and sensitivity analyses were performed from March 2023 to May 2024. Exposures CRC screening histories including fecal immunochemical test (FIT) or colonoscopy, such as a negative colonoscopy result from 10, 15, 20, 25, or 30 years before the index age; 1 to 5 negative FIT results within 5 years of the index age, with different patterns of recency; or a combination of negative colonoscopy and negative FIT results. Main Outcomes and Measures The main outcomes included estimated lifetime clinical outcomes, incremental costs, and quality-adjusted life-years gained (QALYG) associated with 1 additional FIT or colonoscopy. Optimal stopping age for screening, defined as the oldest age for which the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was still below the willingness-to-pay threshold of $\$$100 000 per QALYG, was evaluated. Results The first of the 2 PRECISE subcohorts used in validating the simulation model included 25 974 adults (15 060 females [58.0%]; 54.7% aged 76 to 80 years) with a negative colonoscopy result 10 years before the index date. The second subcohort consisted of 118 269 adults (67 058 females [56.7%]; 90.5% aged 76 to 80 years) with a negative FIT result 1 year before the index date. Older age, male sex, higher comorbidity levels, and recent CRC screenings were associated with reduced incremental benefit and cost-effectiveness of additional screening. For the reference cohort of 76-year-old females without comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy result 10 years before the index age, 1 additional colonoscopy cost $\$$38 226 per QALYG. For cohorts with otherwise equivalent characteristics, associated costs increased to $\$$1 689 945 per QALYG for females at age 90 years without comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy results 10 years before the index age, $\$$51 604 per QALYG for males at age 76 years without comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy result 10 years before the index age, and $\$$108 480 per QALYG for females at age 76 years with severe comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy result 10 years before the index age and decreased to $\$$16 870 per QALYG for females without comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy result 30 years before the index age. The optimal stopping ages across different cohorts ranged from younger than 76 to 86 years for colonoscopy and younger than 76 to 88 years for FIT. Conclusions and Relevance In this economic evaluation, age, sex, screening history, comorbidity, and future screening modality were associated with the clinical outcomes, cost-effectiveness, and optimal stopping age for CRC screening. These results can inform guideline development and patient-directed informed decision-making.

Harlass, Matthias [Erasmus Erasmus University Medi↗

DOE OSTI2020

Assessing geothermal/solar hybridization – Integrating a solar thermal topping cycle into a geothermal bottoming cycle with energy storage

Geothermal and concentrating solar power (CSP) technologies typically use heat at different temperatures in their commercial deployments. This enables a technically viable hybridization of a solar topping cycle and a geothermal bottoming cycle at locations where both resources are available. In this article, an underperforming geothermal power system based at Burley, Idaho is used as a baseline to investigate the technical and economic potential of such a hybrid cycle. A direct thermal energy storage (TES) system is also integrated to overcome the intermittency of the solar resource. Design and off-design behavior of key components are modelled to simulate the annual performance of the hybrid system on an hourly basis. The sizing of the solar field and thermal storage is investigated and is seen to significantly impact the annual electricity generation and efficiency. Various cost scenarios for the solar field and thermal energy storage are investigated. An economic metric - levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) - is used to optimize the solar field sizing and TES capacity. The hybrid plant converts the additional solar heat input into additional work with an efficiency of 32.9%. Retrofitting a geothermal plant with solar and eight hours of energy storage can achieve an LCOE of 0.136 $/kWhe in current cost scenarios and 0.081 $/kWhe in a future cost reduction scenario. Although the hybrid system cannot directly compete with current PV systems without batteries, it has an LCOE 32% lower than that of a PV-battery system. This paper provides insights into the research and development of the future grid with a high renewable energy penetration and encourages further study of energy hybridization for improved efficiencies and economics.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗