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At least 559 records · Page 31

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2018

Weighted gene co-expression network analysis reveals potential genes involved in early metamorphosis process in sea cucumber Apostichopus japonicus

Highlights: • Gene expression profiles of sea cucumber were systematically examined. • Gene co-expression modules of sea cucumber were analyzed for the first time. • The module MEdarkmagenta is highly related to the early metamorphosis process. • Genes associated with the early metamorphosis process were identified. Sea cucumbers, one main class of Echinoderms, have a very fast and drastic metamorphosis process during their development. However, the molecular basis under this process remains largely unknown. Here we systematically examined the gene expression profiles of Japanese common sea cucumber (Apostichopus japonicus) for the first time by RNA sequencing across 16 developmental time points from fertilized egg to juvenile stage. Based on the weighted gene co-expression network analysis (WGCNA), we identified 21 modules. Among them, MEdarkmagenta was highly expressed and correlated with the early metamorphosis process from late auricularia to doliolaria larva. Furthermore, gene enrichment and differentially expressed gene analysis identified several genes in the module that may play key roles in the metamorphosis process. Our results not only provide a molecular basis for experimentally studying the development and morphological complexity of sea cucumber, but also lay a foundation for improving its emergence rate.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2012

Benefits of and barriers to SEA follow-up - Theory and practice

If SEA is to facilitate 'strategic' changes, it needs to focus on shaping the ways in which strategic initiatives are implemented, not just formulated. This is why follow-up which refers to postdecisional activities of SEA and strategic initiatives is increasingly seen as crucial. However, to date follow-up has only received limited attention in the SEA literature, as well as in practical guidance. The key reasons for why post decision activities are often overlooked are the lack of understanding of its actual benefits and purportedly multiple problems with its accomplishment. This paper reports on the results of a comprehensive literature review and an international e-survey on the topic, as well as an in-depth analysis of six SEA follow-up cases from England and Canada. Practically encountered and perceived benefits of, and obstacles to SEA follow-up are identified and discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Exploring pluralism – Different stakeholder views of the expected and realised value of strategic environmental assessment (SEA)

This paper explores the concept of pluralism by evaluating different stakeholder views on the expected and realised value of strategic environmental assessment (SEA). The research followed a single embedded case study approach (of a national-level SEA for renewable energy planning in South Africa) and engaged with four different stakeholder groups, namely government, industry, conservation groups, and interested and affected parties (IAPs). A total of 21 different value expectations (VEs) across all four stakeholder groups were identified. However, stakeholder groups contrast significantly in terms of VEs, with government concerned more with process and mandate; industry with cost, efficiency and certainty; conservation groups with data and technical aspects; and the IAPs with local scale issues. In terms of realisation of VEs the results suggest that SEA does provide opportunities for learning; focussing project level EIA and providing spatial guidance on the location of projects. However, SEA was less successful in realising integration of decision making and alignment of policy within government. Recognition and better understanding of the pluralistic nature of expected and realised VEs could potentially improve the legitimacy of SEA processes and methodologies if they are designed and implemented to accommodate pluralism.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Enhanced mid-latitude warming due to poleward shift of sea salt aerosols in a warmer future

Natural aerosols provide large uncertainties regarding the quantification of the climate effects of aerosols, especially those related to aerosol-cloud interactions. Advancing research on the interaction of natural aerosols and climate can provide a better assessment of the climate impacts of anthropogenic activities. Furthermore, as one of the most dominant natural aerosols, sea salt has the highest proportion of mass in natural aerosols. Sea salt can be regarded as a purely scattering aerosol, causing a negative radiative effect by scattering shortwave solar radiation and acting as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) through aerosol-cloud interactions. Future climate change will influence sea salt distribution, thus modifying the radiative effects of sea salt, which will further affect the climate. However, few previous studies have explored the interactions between sea salt changes under warming scenarios and climate change.

Yang, Yang [Nanjing Univ. of Information Science a↗

DOE OSTI2024

Storm surges and extreme sea levels: Review, establishment of model intercomparison and coordination of surge climate projection efforts (SurgeMIP).

Coastal flood damage is primarily the result of extreme sea levels. Climate change is expected to drive an increase in these extremes. While proper estimation of changes in storm surges is essential to estimate changes in extreme sea levels, there remains low confidence in future trends of surge contribution to extreme sea levels. Alerting local populations of imminent extreme sea levels is also critical to protecting coastal populations. Both predicting and projecting extreme sea levels require reliable numerical prediction systems. The SurgeMIP (surge model intercomparison) community has been established to tackle such challenges. Efforts to intercompare storm surge prediction systems and coordinate the community 's prediction and projection efforts are introduced. An overview of past and recent advances in storm surge science such as physical processes to consider and the recent development of global forecasting systems are briefly introduced. Selected historical events and drivers behind fast increasing service and knowledge requirements for emergency response to adaptation considerations are also discussed. The community 's initial plans and recent progress are introduced. These include the establishment of an intercomparison project, the identification of research and development gaps, and the introduction of efforts to coordinate projections that span multiple climate scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Analysis of Hypoxia and Sensitivity to Nutrient Pollution in Salish Sea

We report that increasing levels of nutrients, persistent hypoxia, harmful algal blooms, and increased frequency of fish kills are degrading the ecological health of the Salish Sea. An improved version of a diagnostic hydrodynamic and biogeochemical model (nutrients, phytoplankton, carbon, dissolved oxygen, pH) of the Salish Sea has been developed with the ability to simulate characteristic circulation and water quality features. Sensitivity tests were conducted to assess the responsiveness of the system to land-based (rivers and wastewater sources) nutrient loading. The influence of Fraser River on the magnitude of estuarine exchange with the Pacific Ocean and nearshore habitat was examined given that it contributes nearly half of the total freshwater discharged to the Salish Sea. A large region of hypoxia in Hood Canal that extends over 30–40 km during its peak was reproduced and attributed primarily to the existence of a two-layer classic fjord-type circulation and a nearly stagnant deep bottom layer that occupies nearly 60% of the water column. Nitrate mass in the euphotic zone from land-based and oceanic sources is depleted to near-zero limiting levels during summer. Under such conditions, the Salish Sea is responsive to changes in nutrient loads entering the euphotic zone directly. Lastly, a hypothetical scenario involving the elimination of land-based nutrient sources results in notable water-quality improvement, featuring a reduction in algal biomass (≈5.4%), reduction in sediment oxygen demand (≈17.1%), and significant reduction in hypoxic area (≈39%) and exposure in area-days to bottom layer hypoxia (≈62%) within the Salish Sea.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Retrievals of Arctic Sea-Ice Volume and Its Trend Significantly Affected by Interannual Snow Variability

We estimate the uncertainty of satellite-retrieved Arctic sea-ice thickness, sea-ice volume, and their trends stemming from the lack of reliable snow-thickness observations. To illustrate, we simulate a Cryosat2-type ice-thickness retrieval in an ocean-model simulation forced by atmospheric reanalysis, pretending that only freeboard is known as model output. We then convert freeboard to sea-ice thickness using different snow climatologies and compare the resulting sea-ice thickness retrievals to each other and to the real sea-ice thickness of the reanalysis-forced simulation. We postulate that different snow climatologies cause significant differences in the obtained ice thickness and ice volume. Moreover, we show that Arctic ice-volume trends derived from ice-thickness retrievals using any snow-depth climatology are highly unreliable because the estimated trend in ice volume can strongly be influenced by the neglected interannual variability in snow volume.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Can Biomass Burning Aerosol Induced Surface Cooling Be Amplified Through Sea Surface Temperature‐Cloud Feedback Over the Southeast Atlantic?

Biomass burning (BB) aerosols exert a strong surface cooling effect over the southeast Atlantic (SEA) via aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions. The reduction of the sea surface temperature (SST) can trigger the SST-low cloud feedback. Whether this feedback can amplify the surface cooling effect is examined. The modeling results from the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) demonstrate that counterintuitively the cloud radiative effect (CRE) caused by the BB aerosols is weaker if SST-low cloud feedback is considered compared to fixed-SST simulation (-2.99 W m -2 vs. -4.79 W m -2 ). This is caused by (a) stronger sea breeze due to larger sea-land temperature contrast causing less smoke transport over SEA and (b) less moisture supply from surface due to colder SST. Changes in SST also lead to counterclockwise rotation of ocean circulation anomalies. Consequently, the excess heat transport from the equator reverses the direction of SST-cloud feedback in this region.

0305↗

DOE OSTI2025

A New Framework for the Attribution of Air‐Sea CO 2 Exchange

Abstract The air‐sea transfer of carbon dioxide can be viewed as a dynamic system through which atmospheric and oceanic processes push surface waters away from thermodynamic equilibrium, while diffusive gas transfer pulls them back toward local equilibrium. These push/pull processes drive significant sub‐seasonal, seasonal, and interannual variability in air‐sea carbon fluxes, the quantification of which is critical both for diagnosing the ocean response to fossil fuel emissions and for attempts to mitigate anthropogenic climate disruption through intentional modification of surface ocean biogeochemistry. In this study, we present a new approach for attributing air‐sea carbon fluxes to specific mechanisms. The new framework is first applied to a two‐box ocean nutrient and carbon cycle model as an illustrative example. Next, outputs from a regional eddy‐resolving model of the Southern Ocean are analyzed. The roles of multiple physical and biogeochemical processes are identified. The decomposition of the seasonal air‐sea carbon flux shows the dominant role of biological carbon pumps that are partially compensated by the transport convergence. Finally, the framework is used to diagnose the response to mesoscale iron and alkalinity release, explicitly quantifying transport feedback and eventual impacts on net air‐sea carbon flux. Ocean carbon transport has divergent influences between iron and alkalinity release, due to opposing near‐surface gradients of dissolved inorganic carbon. We suggest that our attribution framework may be a useful analytical technique for monitoring natural ocean carbon fluxes and quantifying the impacts of human intervention on the ocean carbon cycle.

Ito, Takamitsu [School of Earth and Atmospheric Sc↗

DOE OSTI2025

Emulation With Uncertainty Quantification of Regional Sea‐Level Change Caused by the Antarctic Ice Sheet

Abstract Projecting regional sea‐level change under various climate‐change scenarios typically involves running forward simulations of the Earth's gravitational, rotational and deformational (GRD) response to ice‐mass change, which requires substantial computational cost if applied to probabilistic frameworks requiring thousands to millions of samples. Here we build emulators of regional sea‐level change at 27 coastal locations, due to the GRD effects associated with future Antarctic Ice Sheet mass change over the 21st century. The emulators are evaluated against a numerical sea‐level model applied to an ensemble of ice‐sheet model simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet through 2100. We build a physics‐based emulator using a recent sensitivity kernel approach and compare it to machine learning based emulators (neural network and conditional variational autoencoder methods). In order to quantify uncertainty, we derive well‐calibrated prediction intervals for regional sea‐level change via split‐conformal inference and linear regression, and show that Monte Carlo dropout does not yield well‐calibrated uncertainties in this instance. We also demonstrate substantial gains in computational efficiency using both the physics‐based emulator and neural networks in comparison to the numerical model for the complete regional sea‐level solution. Overall, we find the physics‐based emulator modestly outperforms the machine learning emulators for this problem.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Subglacial Discharge Effects on Antarctic Ice‐Shelf Basal Melt and the Southern Ocean in a Global, Coupled Ocean—Sea‐Ice Model

Subglacial freshwater from beneath Antarctica enters the ocean at depth, enhancing ice-shelf melting and affecting Southern Ocean properties. To study these effects in an Antarctic-wide context, we use a continental-scale subglacial hydrology model that calculates grounding line freshwater flux for a global, coupled ocean—sea-ice model. We find that subglacial discharge impacts melt rates primarily through continental shelf temperature modification, contrasting with findings from regional studies that do not permit large-scale adjustments. The consequence is that Antarctic melt rates scale with subglacial discharge more strongly than inferred from regional studies. We also find that the addition of buoyancy at depth facilitates heat upwelling to the surface, resulting in higher sea ice volume downstream of cold ice shelves and lower sea ice volume downstream of warm ice shelves. This highlights the drawbacks of simplifications in previous global studies that deposit Antarctic meltwater at the ocean surface and find uniform ocean surface cooling and sea-ice growth. While the patterns we find are robust, we conclude that the addition of subglacial discharge at present-day rates has a small effect on basal melt rates, hydrography, and sea ice. However, stronger discharge can have significant effects and can even accelerate a shift from low to high melting for ice shelves close to such a tipping point. Finally, the importance of feedbacks between enhanced cavity overturning and continental shelf conditions poses a complication for parameterizing subglacial discharge effects on melting for ice-sheet projections that do not include a coupled ocean component.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data driven pathway analysis and forecast of global warming and sea level rise

Climate change is a critical issue of our time, and its causes, pathways, and forecasts remain a topic of broader discussion. In this paper, we present a novel data driven pathway analysis framework to identify the key processes behind mean global temperature and sea level rise, and to forecast the magnitude of their increase from the present to 2100. Based on historical data and dynamic statistical modeling alone, we have established the causal pathways that connect increasing greenhouse gas emissions to increasing global mean temperature and sea level, with its intermediate links encompassing humidity, sea ice coverage, and glacier mass, but not for sunspot numbers. Our results indicate that if no action is taken to curb anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, the global average temperature would rise to an estimated 3.28 °C (2.46–4.10 °C) above its pre-industrial level while the global sea level would be an estimated 573 mm (474–671 mm) above its 2021 mean by 2100. However, if countries adhere to the greenhouse gas emission regulations outlined in the 2021 United Nations Conference on Climate Change (COP26), the rise in global temperature would lessen to an average increase of 1.88 °C (1.43–2.33 °C) above its pre-industrial level, albeit still higher than the targeted 1.5 °C, while the sea level increase would reduce to 449 mm (389–509 mm) above its 2021 mean by 2100.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Summertime low clouds mediate the impact of the large-scale circulation on Arctic sea ice

The rapid Arctic sea ice retreat in the early 21 st century is believed to be driven by several dynamic and thermodynamic feedbacks, such as ice-albedo feedback and water vapor feedback. However, the role of clouds in these feedbacks remains unclear since the causality between clouds and these processes is complex. Here, we use NASA CERES satellite products and NCAR CESM model simulations to suggest that summertime low clouds have played an important role in driving sea ice melt by amplifying the adiabatic warming induced by a stronger anticyclonic circulation aloft. The upper-level high pressure regulates low clouds through stronger downward motion and increasing lower troposphere relative humidity. The increased low clouds favor more sea ice melt via emitting stronger longwave radiation. Then decreased surface albedo triggers a positive ice-albedo feedback, which further enhances sea ice melt. Considering the importance of summertime low clouds, accurate simulation of this process is a prerequisite for climate models to produce reliable future projections of Arctic sea ice.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Arctic sea-ice loss drives a strong regional atmospheric response over the North Pacific and North Atlantic on decadal scales

Previous studies have suggested that Arctic sea-ice loss can have a profound influence on atmospheric circulation far away from the Arctic. However, there is little scientific consensus on the features of these remote responses, with the opposite impacts reported. Here we present a multi-model analysis of the decadal climate response to Arctic sea-ice loss using state-of-the-art energy conserving methodologies to isolate the impacts of sea-ice decline. We observe weakening of the Aleutian Low and development of a geopotential ridge in the North Pacific, associated with drier winter conditions over the southwest United States. Over the Atlantic, a negative NAO-like response drives wetter winter conditions across the western Mediterranean. These decadal-scale impacts substantially differ from reported centennial-scale responses to Arctic sea-ice loss simulated using non-energy conserving methodologies. Factors such as the timescale of the response and methodologies used to isolate the impacts of disappearing sea-ice cover should be carefully considered when consolidating scientific understanding on the future impacts of changing Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Emerging investigator series: influence of marine emissions and atmospheric processing on individual particle composition of summertime Arctic aerosol over the Bering Strait and Chukchi Sea

The Arctic is rapidly transforming due to sea ice loss, increasing shipping activity, and oil and gas development. Associated marine and combustion emissions influence atmospheric aerosol composition, impacting complex aerosol–cloud–climate feedbacks. To improve understanding of the sources and processes determining Arctic aerosol composition, atmospheric particles were collected aboard the Korean icebreaker R/V Araon cruising within the Bering Strait and Chukchi Sea during August 2016. Offline analyses of individual particles by microspectroscopic techniques, including scanning electron microscopy with energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy and atomic force microscopy with infrared spectroscopy, provided information on particle size, morphology, and chemical composition. The most commonly observed particle types were sea spray aerosol (SSA), comprising ~60–90%, by number, of supermicron particles, and organic aerosol (OA), comprising ~50–90%, by number, of submicron particles. Sulfate and nitrate were internally mixed within both SSA and OA particles, consistent with particle multiphase reactions during atmospheric transport. Within the Bering Strait, SSA and OA particles were more aged, with greater number fractions of particles containing sulfate and/or nitrate, compared to particles collected over the Chukchi Sea. This is indicative of greater pollution influence within the Bering Strait from coastal and inland sources, while the Chukchi Sea is primarily influenced by marine sources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Increased flood exposure in the Pacific Northwest following earthquake-driven subsidence and sea-level rise

Climate-driven sea-level rise is increasing the frequency of coastal flooding worldwide, exacerbated locally by factors like land subsidence from groundwater and resource extraction. However, a process rarely considered in future sea-level rise scenarios is sudden (over minutes) land subsidence associated with great (>M8) earthquakes, which can exceed 1 m. Along the Washington, Oregon, and northern California coasts, the next great Cascadia subduction zone earthquake could cause up to 2 m of sudden coastal subsidence, dramatically raising sea level, expanding floodplains, and increasing the flood risk to local communities. Here, we quantify the potential expansion of the 1% floodplain (i.e., the area with an annual flood risk of 1%) under low (~0.5 m), medium (~1 m), and high (~2 m) earthquake-driven subsidence scenarios at 24 Cascadia estuaries. If a great earthquake occurred today, floodplains could expand by 90 km 2 (low), 160 km 2 (medium), or 300 km 2 (high subsidence), more than doubling the flooding exposure of residents, structures, and roads under the high subsidence scenario. By 2100, when climate-driven sea-level rise will compound the hazard, a great earthquake could expand floodplains by 170 km 2 (low), 240 km 2 (medium), or 370 km 2 (high subsidence), more than tripling the flooding exposure of residents, structures, and roads under the high subsidence scenario compared to the 2023 floodplain. Our findings can support decision-makers and coastal communities along the Cascadia subduction zone as they prepare for compound hazards from the earthquake cycle and climate-driven sea-level rise and provide critical insights for tectonically active coastlines globally.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2021

Partitioning uncertainty in projections of Arctic sea ice

Abstract Improved knowledge of the contributing sources of uncertainty in projections of Arctic sea ice over the 21st century is essential for evaluating impacts of a changing Arctic environment. Here, we consider the role of internal variability, model structure and emissions scenario in projections of Arctic sea-ice area (SIA) by using six single model initial-condition large ensembles and a suite of models participating in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. For projections of September Arctic SIA change, internal variability accounts for as much as 40%–60% of the total uncertainty in the next decade, while emissions scenario dominates uncertainty toward the end of the century. Model structure accounts for 60%–70% of the total uncertainty by mid-century and declines to 30% at the end of the 21st century in the summer months. For projections of wintertime Arctic SIA change, internal variability contributes as much as 50%–60% of the total uncertainty in the next decade and impacts total uncertainty at longer lead times when compared to the summertime. In winter, there exists a considerable scenario dependence of model uncertainty with relatively larger model uncertainty under strong forcing compared to weak forcing. At regional scales, the contribution of internal variability can vary widely and strongly depends on the calendar month and region. For wintertime SIA change in the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian and Barents Seas, internal variability contributes 60%–70% to the total uncertainty over the coming decades and remains important much longer than in other regions. We further find that the relative contribution of internal variability to total uncertainty is state-dependent and increases as sea ice volume declines. These results demonstrate that internal variability is a significant source of uncertainty in projections of Arctic sea ice.

Bonan, David B. (ORCID:0000000338676009)↗

DOE OSTI2016

Ecological niche and species distribution modelling of sea stars along the Pacific Northwest continental shelf

Abstract Aim Populations of several sea star species were devastated by a disease in 2013–2014 from Alaska to Baja California. However, their exact distributions and ecological requirements are unknown and better knowledge could help identify populations that are at risk. This study aimed to assess patterns of distribution and determine ecological requirements of several sea star species affected by the disease. Location Continental shelf from southern Washington State to northern California, USA . Methods A large occurrence dataset (5385 data points) of 11 taxa was gathered from bottom trawl surveys and underwater video footage, along with data for 13 oceanographic and seafloor environmental parameters. Species distribution modelling ( Maxent ) and ecological niche (outlying mean index) analyses were applied to these biotic and abiotic datasets. Results Each species showed contrasting ecological niches and modelled distributions, the main explanatory factors being depth, temperature, salinity, sediment mean grain size and the presence of rocky outcrops. Despite these species being recorded from Alaska to California, some sea stars showed very narrow distributions, whereas other taxa were widely distributed in the whole area. Main conclusions The modelled ecological niches and distributions of these 11 sea star taxa showed a high degree of differentiation. Because intertidal and shallow subtidal populations were drastically affected by the 2013–2014 disease, recovery will depend on health of subtidal populations and the ability of the species to disperse and recolonize shallower areas. Our study will serve as a useful reference of the species distributions before the disease started. This distributional data and assessment of influential environmental factors will be valuable for future predictions or studies of the effects of bottom‐contact ocean‐use activities on sea star species as well as the effects of climate change. Understanding habitat conditions favourable for these species may be helpful in managing population recovery following disease outbreaks or other catastrophic events.

Hemery, Lenaïg G.↗