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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 559 records · Page 31
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Importance of Multiplicity Fluctuations in Entropy Scaling

One of the greatest uncertainties in heavy-ion collisions is the description of the initial state. Different models predict a wide range of initial energy density distributions based on their underlying assumptions. Final flow harmonics are sensitive to these differences in the initial state due to the nearly linear mapping between eccentricities and anisotropic flow harmonics. The Trento code uses a model-agnostic approach by phenomenologically parameterizing the initial state and constraining those parameters from a Bayesian analysis. There the multiplicity fluctuations were determined by a one parameter Γ distribution. However, initial-state models arising from the Color-Glass Condensate (CGC) framework lead to an initial energy density which is outside the functional form considered in Trento and its later Bayesian analyses because they rely on log-normal multiplicity fluctuations. We compare T A T B scaling (CGC-like) to √T A T B scaling (preferred from a Trento Bayesian analysis) and find that the T A T B form together with log-normal fluctuations is a reasonable candidate to describe the multiplicity fluctuations but leads to larger eccentricities, which would affect the extraction of viscosity in small systems.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

NGEE Arctic Plant Traits: Plant Community Composition, Kougarok Road Mile Marker 64, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2016

This dataset reports the characteristics of the dominant vegetation communities at the NGEE Arctic Kougarok field site, Kougarok Road Mile Marker 64 on the Seward Peninsula. Selected plots were surveyed from 18-23 July 2016. Environmental data (e.g., elevation, slope, soil moisture regime, disturbance type and degree, mean canopy height, etc.) were also recorded for each plot. Elevation measurements were updated 2020-08-18. All plant species (vascular plants, bryophytes and lichens) were recorded along with their percent cover in the plots as determined visually by the lead author. Plots were chosen subjectively in areas of homogeneous and representative vegetation and varied in size from 1-25 m2 depending on canopy structure and height. The site is an east-facing hillslope with vegetation that varies from the summit to the toeslope. The 30 total plots were selected as five replicate plots sampled from each of the six identified habitat types: 1) non-acidic mountain complex at the hillcrest, 2) dwarf-shrub lichen tundra on the shoulder, 3) alder shrublands predominantly on an elevational band across the backslope, 4) willow-birch tundra on the upper backslope, 5) tussock tundra on the footslope in inter-water tracks, and 6) tussock tundra mixed with willow-birch tundra or alder savanna in poor developed water tracks on the footslope. This dataset is comprised of two comma-separated (*.csv) files containing species and environmental data for the plant community composition plots. It also contains seven zipped folders of plot photographs, one map showing plot locations (*.pdf), one blank datasheet with the key to codes used in the field (*.pdf), select photos organized in a (*.pdf), and one User file (*.pdf). The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Characterization of Uranium Foil Irradiations at the WSU TRIGA Reactor Using a New Reactor Model in Scale

A new reactor model of the Washington State University TRIGA was developed in the SCALE neutron transport code, and its fidelity was verified by comparison to MCNP and available data for several reactor parameters. The model was used to characterize irradiations designed to produce the short-lived actinides 237 U and 239 U, two key isotopes for nuclear forensics. These short-lived actinides, their decay daughters 237Np and 239Pu, and total fissions (via 99 Mo) were measured in irradiated foils at Los Alamos National Laboratory and other labs with good agreement among parent/daughter pairs and among labs. The laboratory-measured isotope ratios were used as a benchmark for the model determination of reaction rates. The flux distribution in the foils was also determined. Finally, using the continuous energy TSUNAMI-3D module of SCALE, a sensitivity/uncertainty analysis was performed to determine the effects on foil reactions caused by other system-wide reactions and by uncertainties in the known cross-sections.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Google/Makani Energy Kite Modeling (CRADA CRD-18-00569 Final Report)

In support of Makani’s energy kite development program, Makani engaged with NREL to develop, verify, and document a multiphysics engineering model of a megawatt-scale tethered energy kite (named KiteFAST). After the original development of KiteFAST was completed, Makani further engaged NREL to develop a software enhancement of KiteFAST to enable the dynamics modeling of an energy kite tethered to a floating offshore platform (named KiteFAST-OS). Before this project, the capability to model the aero-hydro-servo-elastic dynamics of an airborne wind energy (AWE) system with electricity generation on the flying device (fly gen) and crosswind flight operation did not exist. Such physics-based modeling capability is needed for loads analysis, structural design, and certification of energy kites. Throughout the project, an exclusive license kept KiteFAST and KiteFAST-OS available only to Makani, NREL, and its counterparts. With the ending of Makani, the KiteFAST and KiteFAST-OS software were merged into a single code base (named KiteFAST), the exclusive license was terminated, and the source code, documentation, and example models were released publicly.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Monte Carlo simulation of shielding designs for a cabinet form factor preclinical MV–energy photon FLASH radiotherapy system

Purpose: A preclinical MV-energy photon FLASH radiotherapy system is being designed at Stanford and SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory. Because of the higher energy and dose rate compared to conventional kV-energy photon laboratory-scale irradiators, adequate shielding in a stand-alone cabinet form factor is more challenging to achieve. We present a Monte Carlo simulation of multilayered shielding for a compact self-shielding system without the need for a radiation therapy vault. Methods: A multilayered shielding approach using multiple alternating layers of high-Z and low-Z materials is applied to the self-shielded cabinet to effectively mitigate the secondary radiation produced and to allow the device to be housed in a Controlled Radiation Area outside of a radiation vault. The multilayered shielding approach takes advantage of the properties of high-Z and low-Z radiation shielding materials such as density, cross-section, atomic number of the shielding elements, and products of radiation interactions within each layer. The Monte Carlo radiation transport code, FLUKA, is used to simulate the total effective dose produced by the operation. Results: The multilayered shielding designs proposed and simulated produced effective dose rates significantly lower than monolayer designs with the same total material thickness at the regulatory boundary; this is accomplished through the manipulation of the locations where secondary radiation is produced and reactions due to material properties such as neutron back reflection in hydrogen. Borated polyethylene at 5 wt% significantly increased the shielding performance as compared to regular polyethylene, with the magnitude of the reduction depending upon the order of the shielding material. Conclusions: The multilayered shielding provides a path for shielding preclinical FLASH systems that deliver MV-energy bremsstrahlung photons. Furthermore, this approach promises to be more efficient with respect to the shielding material mass and space claim as compared to shielded vaults typically required for clinical radiation therapy with MV photons.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2021

A seamless multiscale operator neural network for inferring bubble dynamics

Modelling multiscale systems from nanoscale to macroscale requires the use of atomistic and continuum methods and, correspondingly, different computer codes. Here, we develop a seamless method based on DeepONet, which is a composite deep neural network (a branch and a trunk network) for regressing operators. In particular, we consider bubble growth dynamics, and we model tiny bubbles of initial size from 100 nm to 10 $\mathrm {\mu }\textrm {m}$ , modelled by the Rayleigh–Plesset equation in the continuum regime above 1 $\mathrm {\mu }\textrm {m}$ and the dissipative particle dynamics method for bubbles below 1 $\mathrm {\mu }\textrm {m}$ in the atomistic regime. After an offline training based on data from both regimes, DeepONet can make accurate predictions of bubble growth on-the-fly (within a fraction of a second) across four orders of magnitude difference in spatial scales and two orders of magnitude in temporal scales. The framework of DeepONet is general and can be used for unifying physical models of different scales in diverse multiscale applications.

Mechanics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of Hydrogen Storage Quantity Limits for Safety Requirements

As hydrogen storage facilities increase in size and capacity, it may be necessary to evaluate codes and standards that regulate hydrogen, especially in relation to allowable aggregate quantities. Existing regulations for other substances with comparable hazards such as oxygen, natural gas, and petroleum were reviewed; most fuels do not have aggregate quantity limits despite sometimes having individual tank capacity restrictions or limits for certain non-industrial, indoor, or small-scale applications. This precedent suggests that specifying a hydrogen quantity limit may not be necessary. Several possible methods for identifying an appropriate limit are presented to illustrate different approaches for a limit basis. These methods are based on overall risk, or the specific consequences inflicted by a jet fire or an explosion on people and infrastructure. However, these example metrics tend to require assumptions about potential leak sizes, suggesting that a general aggregate quantity limit would be difficult to justify without more system-specific requirements.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2025

DOE FAIR Surrogate Benchmarks Supporting AI and Simulation Research (SBI Surrogate Benchmark Initiative) (Final Report)

Computational Science is being revolutionized by integrating AI and simulation and, in particular, by deep learning surrogate models that can replace all or part of traditional large‐scale HPC computations. Such surrogates can achieve remarkable performance improvements, as much as several orders of magnitude, and save both compute time and energy. The Surrogate Benchmark Initiative (SBI) project creates a community repository and FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable) data ecosystem for HPC application surrogate benchmarks. The SBI team comes from Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Indiana University (IU), Rutgers University, the University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK), and the University of Virginia(UVA). SBI repositories include data, code, and all relevant collateral artifacts, that the science and engineering community needs to use and reuse these data sets and surrogates. SBI repositories generate active research from both participants in SBI and the broader AI and domain science communities. This project develops surrogates that use several different neural nets to learn and quickly infer the results of simulations and data systems and capture them as surrogate benchmarks with a rich set of metadata, covering. Data; Model; Metrics specification; Machine specification; Science, Speed, Power Results, We research FAIR metadata for these benchmarks. We develop application surrogate examples as benchmarks across many fields (ANL, UTK, IU, UVA). We also study non Surrogate benchmarks that have many common features and similar issues regarding FAIRness. We work with MLCommons (UVA, UTK), which is a major machine learning benchmarking activity where we get metadata ontologies, software, and benchmarks, benchmarks have datasets, models, and metadata, and they need a technical framework developed by UTK and Rutgers and deployed by UVA. We study features of Surrogates, including performance, training set size, and uncertainty quantification (Rutgers, UVA and IU).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evolution of microstructures in radiation fields using a coupled binary-collision Monte Carlo phase field approach

The simulation of radiation effects in materials broadly falls into two categories. At short time and length scales lies the modeling of primary radiation damage, such as point defect creation, energy deposition, and ballistic mixing. This is followed by the modeling at longer time scales of thermally activated microstructure evolution and defect reactions, such as recombination, clustering, and coarsening. The binary collision Monte Carlo method is an established, numerically efficient method for the computation of primary radiation damage. Conversely, the phase field method is a state of the art method for microstructure evolution on longer time and length scales. Here we present a concurrent coupling of these two methods, overcoming the difference between the discrete object Monte Carlo paradigm for primary radiation damage and the continuum field variable approach for microstructure evolution. The coupling is bidirectional, in which the microstructure evolution in the MOOSE finite element frame- work provides the spatial scattering data set for the charged particle trans- port and receives point defect, mass transport, and heat source terms from the simulated collision cascades that contribute to the field variable evolution. The concurrent coupling scheme is implemented in the code Magpie and demonstrated by investigating patterning for a model irradiated immiscible binary alloy. The results from the coupled binary collision Monte Carlo/phase field simulations reproduce the results of analytical models for phase separation, phase mixing, and patterning, supporting the approach and indicating its utility for modeling real materials systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Single classical field description of interacting scalar fields

In this report we test the degree to which interacting Bosonic systems can be approximated by a classical field as total occupation number is increased. This is done with our publicly available code repository, QIBS, a new massively parallel solver for these systems. We use a number of toy models well studied in the literature and track when the classical field description admits quantum corrections, called the quantum breaktime. This allows us to test claims in the literature regarding the rate of convergence of these systems to the classical evolution. We test a number of initial conditions, including coherent states, number eigenstates, and field number states. We find that of these initial conditions, only number eigenstates do not converge to the classical evolution as occupation number is increased. We find that systems most similar to scalar field dark matter exhibit a logarithmic enhancement in the quantum breaktime with total occupation number. Systems with contact interactions or with field number state initial conditions, and linear dispersions, exhibit a power law enhancement. Finally, we find that the breaktime scaling depends on both model interactions and initial conditions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

FAIR Surrogate Benchmarks Supporting AI and Simulation Research (Final Report)

Computational Science is being revolutionized by integrating AI and simulation and, in particular, by deep learning surrogate models that can replace all or part of traditional large‐scale HPC computations. Such surrogates can achieve remarkable performance improvements, as much as several orders of magnitude, and save both compute time and energy. The Surrogate Benchmark Initiative (SBI) project creates a community repository and FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable) data ecosystem for HPC application surrogate benchmarks. The SBI team comes from Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Indiana University (IU), Rutgers University, the University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK), and the University of Virginia (UVA). SBI repositories include data, code, and all relevant collateral artifacts that the science and engineering community need to use and reuse these data sets and surrogates. SBI repositories generate active research from both the participants in SBI and the broad community of AI and domain scientists. This project develops surrogates that use several different neural nets to learn and quickly infer the results of simulations and data systems and captures them as surrogate benchmarks with a rich set of metadata covering: Data; Model; Metrics specification; Machine specification; and Science, Speed, and Power Results. We research FAIR metadata for these benchmarks. We develop application surrogate examples as benchmarks across many fields (ANL, UTK, IU, UVA). We also study non-Surrogate benchmarks that have many common features and similar issues as regards FAIRness. We work with MLCommons (UVA, UTK), which is a major machine learning benchmarking activity where we get metadata ontologies, software, and benchmarks, Benchmarks have datasets, models, and metadata and they need a technical framework developed by UTK and Rutgers and deployed by UVA. We study features of Surrogates including performance, training set size, and uncertainty quantification (Rutgers, UVA and IU).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

SpotSDC: Revealing the Silent Data Corruption Propagation in High-Performance Computing Systems

We report the trend of rapid technology scaling is expected to make the hardware of high-performance computing (HPC) systems more susceptible to computational errors due to random bit flips. Some bit flips may cause a program to crash or have a minimal effect on the output, but others may lead to silent data corruption (SDC), i.e., undetected yet significant output errors. Classical fault injection analysis methods employ uniform sampling of random bit flips during program execution to derive a statistical resiliency profile. However, summarizing such fault injection result with sufficient detail is difficult, and understanding the behavior of the fault-corrupted program is still a challenge. In this article, we introduce SpotSDC, a visualization system to facilitate the analysis of a program's resilience to SDC. SpotSDC provides multiple perspectives at various levels of detail of the impact on the output relative to where in the source code the flipped bit occurs, which bit is flipped, and when during the execution it happens. SpotSDC also enables users to study the code protection and provide new insights to understand the behavior of a fault-injected program. Based on lessons learned, we demonstrate how what we found can improve the fault injection campaign method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dataset 1: A National and City Dataset on Human Factors in Pooled Rideshare, 2021

Dataset 1: A National and City Dataset on Human Factors in Pooled Rideshare, 2021. Dataset Description: Pooled Rideshare Acceptance Survey - Phase 1 (2021, N = 5,385). This dataset captures responses from a nationally representative sample of 5,385 adults across the United States to understand public acceptance, preferences, and behavioral intentions related to pooled rideshare (PR) services. The primary objective of this research is to provide actionable insights to inform the design, deployment, and policy development of sustainable shared mobility systems. Data was collected via an online survey administered through a national panel provider. Participants ranged in age from 18 to 95 years, and representation from all U.S. regions. The survey instrument was designed to explore numerous dimensions related to PR adoption including demographic traits, current travel habits, rideshare familiarity, trust, safety, environmental attitudes, and user experience preferences. Both rideshare users and non-users were included, offering a diverse range of perspectives. - Phase_1_Final - The dataset includes survey items developed from literature reviews, and prior field studies. Each row represents an individual respondent, and each column corresponds to a variable such as willingness to use pooled rideshare, attitudes toward specific service features, and sociodemographic data. The data is available in both .CSV and .SAV formats. - Phase_1_Final_MapFile - The accompanying data dictionary explains all variable labels, response scales, and codes. An .XLSX format of the full survey instrument is also included to support interpretation and reuse of the dataset.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Advanced Ultra-Supercritical Component Test (ComTest) Project for 760*C Steam Conditions

ComTest is a $27M Department of Energy-funded project. Phase I, which began in November 2015, served to identify the technology gaps, as well as the scope and cost of required testing. Phase II, which was awarded in December 2018, includes an advanced manufacturing effort to complete U.S. based supply chain development for full commercial scale (800-850 MWe) AUSC components made of nickel-based alloys, components operating at up to 760°C. Completion of Phase II scheduled for September 30, 2021. Strategic Objectives of U.S. AUSC Project include: Power Plant Efficiency Improvements –Develop cost-effective, reliable technologies to improve the efficiency of new and existing high-temperature advanced generation power plants. Close gaps to achieve readiness for commercial scale demonstration of Advanced Ultra-Supercritical (AUSC) technology. Fabricate full-scale versions of key nickel-based alloy components. Validate capabilities of US supply chain for cost certainty. Support cross-cutting high-temperature generation technologies. Obtain ASME Code approval for new materials, components and processes. Increase power plant steam temperatures for higher cycle efficiency (Note: Average efficiency of US coal-fired fleet = 33% HHV; A-USC plant efficiency over 47% HHV at 1,400°F (760°C) steam temperature).

fireside corrosion↗
DOE OSTI2022

Improving Schrödinger Equation Implementations with Gray Code for Adiabatic Quantum Computers

We reformulate the continuous-space Schrödinger equation in terms of spin Hamiltonians. For the kinetic energy operator, the critical concept facilitating the reduction in model complexity is the idea of position encoding. A binary encoding of position produces a spin-1/2 Heisenberg-like model and yields exponential improvement in space complexity when compared to classical computing. Encoding with a binary reflected Gray code (BRGC), and a Hamming-distance-2 Gray code (H2GC) reduces the model complexity down to the 𝑋⁢𝑍 and transverse Ising model, respectively. For 𝐴 qubits BRGC yields 2 𝐴 positions and is reduced to its 2-local form with O⁡(𝐴) ancillary qubits. H2GC yields 2 𝐴/2+1 positions with O⁡(𝐴 2 ) three-local penalty terms. We also identify the bijective mapping between diagonal unitaries and the Walsh series, producing the mapping of any real potential to a series of 𝑘 -local Ising models through the fast Walsh transform. Finally, in a finite volume, we provide some numerical evidence to support the claim that the total time needed for adiabatic evolution is protected by the infrared cutoff of the system. As a result, initial state preparation from a free-field wave function to an interacting system is expected to exhibit polynomial time complexity with volume and constant scaling with respect to lattice discretization for all encodings. For H2GC, if the evolution starts with the transverse Hamiltonian due to hardware restrictions, then penalties are dynamically introduced such that the low-lying spectrum reproduces the energy levels of the Laplacian. The adiabatic evolution of the penalty Hamiltonian is therefore sensitive to the ultraviolet scale. It is expected to exhibit polynomial time complexity with lattice discretization, or exponential time complexity with respect to the number of qubits given a fixed volume.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Resilient Operation of Networked Community Microgrids with High Solar Penetration

This project, funded by the US Department of Energy’s Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO), focused on the operation of microgrids as a coordinated network. The primary objective, which was successfully achieved, was to develop both control strategies and hardware solutions to support the resilient and efficient operation of networked microgrids with high solar penetration. The work was structured around the following four main tasks: • Development of distributed and scalable optimization algorithms for AC-coupled networked microgrids. • Design and implementation of a novel DC interconnection hardware to enable precise power exchange between microgrids. • Laboratory operational validation of the developed technologies using 480 V testbeds and commercially available hardware. • Field operational validation of the complete solution in Adjuntas, Puerto Rico, interconnecting two kW-scale, split-phase microgrids of Casa Pueblo’s microgrids. This project addressed multiple technical challenges across the domains of optimization, control, hardware interconnection, and protection. One of its key contributions was delivering tangible, real-world solutions for networking microgrids. In contrast to purely theoretical or simulation-based work, this project included full-scale hardware operational validation both in the lab and in the field. The work conducted as part of this project—in collaboration with the University of Puerto Rico; the University of Tennessee, Knoxville; the University of Central Florida; and Casa Pueblo—has advanced the state of the art in networked microgrids. Key contributions include the development of distributed control strategies, practical solutions for real-world implementation challenges, and the introduction of a novel DC interlink approach for microgrid interconnection. The project featured both laboratory and field validation using commercial off-the-shelf components. The field deployment successfully validated that a group of microgrids can operate in a coordinated manner, enabling precise power flow between systems and mutual support during extreme events. This project resulted in 15 journal publications and 15 conference papers; 5 graduate students and 15 undergraduate students were supported. The codes of distributed optimization and forecasting were made open-source through OSTI.gov for distributed optimization and forecasting. All the publications are available in the ORNL-hosted project landing page. The DC interlink with state-of-charge balancing control was operationally validated in Adjuntas by interconnecting two real-world, 240 V split-phase microgrids. To the best knowledge of the team, this represents the first operational validation of AC microgrids interconnected via DC-interlinks. As a culmination of this project, a follow-on grant was awarded to support the technology transfer of the distributed optimization framework to a commercial microgrid controller, Stellar Edge, developed by the California-based company New Sun Road.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

ezAlign: A Tool for Converting Coarse-Grained Molecular Dynamics Structures to Atomistic Resolution for Multiscale Modeling

Soft condensed matter is challenging to study due to the vast time and length scales that are necessary to accurately represent complex systems and capture their underlying physics. Multiscale simulations are necessary to study processes that have disparate time and/or length scales, which abound throughout biology and other complex systems. Herein we present ezAlign, an open-source software for converting coarse-grained molecular dynamics structures to atomistic representation, allowing multiscale modeling of biomolecular systems. The ezAlign v1.1 software package is publicly available for download at github.com/LLNL/ezAlign. Its underlying methodology is based on a simple alignment of an atomistic template molecule, followed by position-restraint energy minimization, which forces the atomistic molecule to adopt a conformation consistent with the coarse-grained molecule. The molecules are then combined, solvated, minimized, and equilibrated with position restraints. Validation of the process was conducted on a pure POPC membrane and compared with other popular methods to construct atomistic membranes. Additional examples, including surfactant self-assembly, membrane proteins, and more complex bacterial and human plasma membrane models, are also presented. By providing these examples, parameter files, code, and an easy-to-follow recipe to add new molecules, this work will aid future multiscale modeling efforts.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2023

Representing the Future Role of Hydropower and Pumped Storage Hydropower (PSH) in Electricity Planning Tools

Existing tools for long-term electric sector planning struggle to represent hydropower's nuanced site-specific technical and operating characteristics, which depend on technical specifications as well as water management practices and regulations. As a result, long-term planning models and tools insufficiently characterize hydropower value and incentives, and they cannot fully represent the role hydropower can play in a future electricity system that could include a high penetration of variable wind and solar generation, battery storage, and other low-carbon technologies. This presentation demonstrates the culmination of a multi-year effort to enhance hydropower representations in electricity planning models at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), as part of the U.S. Department of Energy (USDOE) HydroWIRES Initiative. New modeling techniques are demonstrated using the NREL Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS), an open-access electric sector capacity expansion model used extensively in a wide range of technology deployment and integration analysis, including the 2016 USDOE Hydropower Vision. ReEDS uses a least-cost optimization approach to understand investment and operation of electricity generation, storage, and transmission technologies under future scenarios of electricity technology innovation, demand, policy, and other sectoral drivers. ReEDS was modified to better represent value and opportunities for both pumped storage hydropower (PSH) and hydropower systems without pumping. We incorporated a new national closed-loop PSH resource and cost assessment to explore new PSH deployment opportunities and added plant-level data to better represent the existing PSH fleet. New upgrade pathways enable opportunities for enhanced hydropower flexibility by adding pumps, upgrading dispatchability, increasing capacity, or increasing energy availability. The model was also modified to better represent the value of long-duration energy storage beyond diurnal time scales, allowing both hydropower and PSH to better balance energy supply and demand variations in high-renewable systems. These new features are demonstrated under reference and high-renewable futures and a range of sensitivity scenarios to understand which hydropower and PSH deployment and upgrade opportunities are the most attractive. These scenarios indicate potential for new closed-loop PSH deployment and for hydropower flexibility improvements to have important impacts on long-term electricity system emissions and economic outcomes. Increasing flexibility of the existing hydropower fleet can reduce the need to invest in new flexible grid technologies and help achieve decarbonization goals. Systems with sufficient energy storage could also be valuable for balancing seasonal differences in renewable energy availability, particularly from solar energy. The methods developed for ReEDS and subsequent scenario results reveal important considerations for future hydropower and grid system planning, and all data and code is freely available in a public code repository for use throughout the hydropower industry.

capacity expansion↗