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At least 559 records · Page 31

Resource selection and species interactions between native and non‐native fishes in a simulated stream system

Abstract Effective fishery management necessitates understanding of resource partitioning by fishes that inhabit complex systems composed of biotic and abiotic features. Evaluations of non‐native species introductions have continually demonstrated adverse effects associated with abundance and distribution of native fishes. Therefore, understanding resource selection and interactions between native and non‐native species is important for recovery efforts. Habitat use by two native fish species (largescale sucker Catostomus macrocheilus [Girard] and mountain whitefish Prosopium williamsoni [Girard]) and one non‐native fish species (pumpkinseed Lepomis gibbosus [Linnaeus]) of the Kootenai River, Idaho, were evaluated in a laboratory stream system. Trials were conducted in allopatry and in sympatry with and without the presence of wood to describe habitat selection in the context of on‐going habitat rehabilitation efforts. Interactions were evident between native largescale sucker and non‐native pumpkinseed concerning use of a woody structure and current velocity. Mountain whitefish used low‐velocity habitats and selected locations that were further from wood when in sympatry with pumpkinseed. Our research suggests that habitat use of native, large‐river fishes may be influenced by the presence of a non‐native species, and that considering such interactions is critical when designing and implementing habitat rehabilitation efforts in river ecosystems.

Branigan, Philip R.↗

Developing a Distributed Trust Model for Distributed Energy Resources

Electric power system operators can manage distribution system reliability by coordinating end customer usage of distributed energy resources. The end customers in this regard are Service Provisioning Customers, who provide their energy resources to a Grid Service Provider, which in turn dispatches large aggregations of distributed energy resources to provide reliable service to the power system.The security of this system relies upon information protection mechanisms, as described in IEEE 2030.5. However, in addition to preventive security measures, a monitoring function is required to ensure trustworthiness. Trust models are a method to detect and respond to both expected and unexpected behavior. Different trust models are required for various types and characteristics of each situation. This paper will describe the topics that must be considered when developing a trust model as it applies to distributed energy resources. The major contribution of this paper is the creation and application of a Distributed Trust Model applied to distributed energy resources.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Predictor-corrector models for lightweight massive machine-type communications in Industry 4.0

Future Industry 4.0 scenarios are characterized by seamless integration between computational and physical processes. To achieve this objective, dense platforms made of small sensing nodes and other resource constraint devices are ubiquitously deployed. All these devices have a limited number of computational resources, just enough to perform the simple operation they are in charge of. The remaining operations are delegated to powerful gateways that manage sensing nodes, but resources are never unlimited, and as more and more devices are deployed on Industry 4.0 platforms, gateways present more problems to handle massive machine-type communications. Although the problems are diverse, those related to security are especially critical. To enable sensing nodes to establish secure communications, several semiconductor companies are currently promoting a new generation of devices based on Physical Unclonable Functions, whose usage grows every year in many real industrial scenarios. Those hardware devices do not consume any computational resource but force the gateway to keep large key-value catalogues for each individual node. In this context, memory usage is not scalable and processing delays increase exponentially with each new node on the platform. In this paper, we address this challenge through predictor-corrector models, representing the key-value catalogues. Models are mathematically complex, but we argue that they consume less computational resources than current approaches. The lightweight models are based on complex functions managed as Laurent series, cubic spline interpolations, and Boolean functions also developed as series. Unknown parameters in these models are predicted, and eventually corrected to calculate the output value for each given key. The initial parameters are based on the Kane Yee formula. An experimental analysis and a performance evaluation are provided in the experimental section, showing that the proposed approach causes a significant reduction in the resource consumption.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The transition from resistance to acceptance: Managing a marine invasive species in a changing world

Abstract Marine invasive species can transform coastal ecosystems, yet mitigating their effects can be difficult, and even impractical. Often, marine invasive species are managed at poorly matched spatial scales, and at the same time, rates of spread and establishment are increasing under climate change and can outpace resources available for population suppression. These circumstances challenge traditional conservation goals of maintaining a historic environmental state, especially for a species like the European green crab ( Carcinus maenas ), a formidable invader with few examples of successful long‐term removal programs. A management paradigm where decision alternatives include resisting or accepting a new ecological trajectory may be needed. We apply mathematical concepts from decision theory to develop a quantitative framework for navigating management decisions in this new resist‐accept paradigm. We develop a model of European green crab growth, removal and colonization, and we find optimal levels of removal effort that minimize both ecological change and removal cost. We establish a benchmark of colonization pressure at which green crab density becomes decoupled from a decision maker's actions, such that population control can no longer shape the invasion trajectory. For informing the decision boundary between resistance and acceptance, our results highlight that a decision maker's understanding of how removal cost scales with removal effort is more important than understanding the density‐impact relationship. We show that assuming stationary system dynamics can result in sub‐optimal levels of species removal effort, highlighting the importance of developing anticipatory management strategies by accounting for non‐stationary dynamics. Policy implications . For marine invasive species that can disperse across long distances and recolonize rapidly after removal, the focus of conservation policy should shift away from understanding how to resist change to understanding when to stop resisting change. Navigating this decision problem involves trade‐offs among competing objectives, highlighting the need for structured approaches to elicit objective weights that reflect the values of the decision maker. For natural resource managers facing possible ecosystem transformation, this decision framework can enable proactive and strategic decisions made under uncertainty in a changing world.

Keller, Abigail G. [Department of Environment Scie↗

Real-time Implementation of Grid Code Compliant Grid Edge Energy Management System

Integrated distributed energy resources (DER) in a distribution system need to follow grid codes to avoid violations that result in DER/circuit segment disconnection. To comply with grid code requirements at the grid edge level, network constrained grid edge energy management system (EMS) can be deployed. The objective of grid edge EMS is to provide economic solution for active and reactive power DER setpoints at each dispatch interval and ensure voltage regulation to support secure interconnection of the grid edge segment to the distribution system with multiple inverter based DER units. In this work, real-time simulation of grid code compliant grid edge EMS is deployed in a realistic feeder circuit segment. For real-time simulation, communication between the grid edge EMS and DERs is done exploiting IEC 61850-7-420. It enables interoperability among different DERs and grid edge EMS. No prior art has deployed IEC 61850-7-420 GOOSE communication protocol for grid edge EMS. Conversion of IEC 61850 GOOSE messages to Modbus communication protocol is also performed to communicate with grid edge EMS in commodity-off the shelf embedded boards in this work. The real-time simulation in OPAL-RT real-time digital simulator shows the out-performance of grid edge EMS by reducing the voltage violation in the distribution circuit.

Energy management system↗

TCCSP Project Implementation Plan

The TCCSP CarbonSAFE Phase II efforts focused on developing the technical, community, and economic foundation for a commercial-scale regional geologic storage complex for CO 2 captured. TCCSP has conducted a thorough evaluation of the regional, local, and site-specific geology, legacy well infrastructure, injection site design, and project planning as part of the CarbonSAFE Phase II TCCSP. Specially, the work performed under the CarbonSAFE Phase II has significantly furthered the advancement towards the commerciality of the TCCSP storage complex by delivering on the following objectives: Objective 1: Acquire site-specific characterization data to validate carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage estimates of reservoir units and the competency of confining layers in the region to prevent CO 2 leakage to develop a commercial-scale CO 2 project. Objective 2: Assess technical, economic, regulatory, and stakeholder aspects of the TCCSP.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Control coordination in inverter‐based microgrids using AoI‐based 5G schedulers

Abstract A coordinated set point automatic adjustment with correction enabled (C‐SPAACE) framework that uses 5G communication for real‐time control coordination between inverter‐based resources (IBR) in microgrids is proposed. Utilising slicing capability, 5G offers low‐latency communication to C‐SPAACE under normal conditions. However, given the multitude of power grid use cases, a certain 5G slice for C‐SPAACE may have access only to limited radio spectrum resources, which if not managed well, greatly undermines the communication needs of C‐SPAACE framework. Thus, optimally scheduling the available spectrum resources among IBRs in a sliced 5G network‐based C‐SPAACE framework becomes a critical problem. To address this issue, the authors utilise a novel age of information (AoI) metric and designs an AoI‐based 5G scheduler to provide low‐latency communication to C‐SPAACE. Following this, a co‐simulation environment is designed using PSCAD/EMTDC and Python to simulate a microgrid supported by 5G communication. Time‐domain simulation case studies are performed using the proposed co‐simulation environment to evaluate the performance of C‐SPAACE using 5G with both AoI‐based and other baseline (non‐AoI) schedulers.

Choudhury, Biplav↗

DER as a service-ecoLong and VOLTTRON (Abstract)

The project goal is to commercialize the VOLTTRON-hosted “DER as a Service” (DaaS) application and make it an “out-of-the-box” solution for ecoLong to use as a secure residential energy management system that allows 1.) distributed energy resources (DERs) to participate in wholesale markets and provide services to the grid and 2.) intelligently control the energy in the residential buildings to the desired level while maintaining occupancy comfort. The product will be field deployed onto multiple Solar Liberty sites in New York state to demonstrate wide-scale participation of DERs in wholesale markets to provide services to the grid and validate the effectiveness of the solution. The integrated management of DERs and buildings increases the penetration of solar resources by managing its variability, providing grid services, and solving the evening ramping challenges. Ultimately, the DaaS platform will make buildings and DERs smarter by unlocking grid-interactive efficient buildings.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Co-treating flue gas desulfurized effluent and produced water enables novel waste management and recovery of critical minerals

Herein this study reports a novel approach of resource recovery from co-managing two geographically co-located and chemically complementary wastewaters using a pilot-scale treatment process. Designed to treat flue gas desulfurized (FGD) effluent from combustion powerplants and produced water (PW) from energy industries, the process consists of soda-ash softening, nanofiltration (NF), and reverse osmosis (RO). Recovered products are barite, calcite, and low-salinity water. Using field-collected waters, the results show that softening at pH 8.5 produces calcite (yield: 30 kg/m 3 treated water), a chemical used as SO ₂(g) scrubbers. NF treatment under an applied pressure of 3.5 MPa yields a permeate stream laden with monovalent ions (water recovery 60%) and a concentrate stream with a sulfate concentration 1.8 times of the feedwater concentration. Mixing the NF concentrate and PW at a volumetric ratio of 1.0 precipitates a high-density barite material (4.1 g/cm 3 , yield: ~7.5 kg/m 3 mixture) – a critical mineral commonly used as a weighting agent in drilling. The RO treatment recovers >64% water as the permeate, which can be readily used as cooling make-up water at the powerplants. The RO concentrate stream can be further processed in a thermal evaporative system for additional water recovery and brine production.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Sensitive Resources Assessment and Forest Analysis for the Proposed Versatile Test Reactor, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

The US Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is a leading institution in advanced materials, supercomputing, neutrons, and nuclear science. As a research laboratory managed by UT-Battelle, LLC for DOE, ORNL has national priorities in energy, security, and scientific discovery that necessitate facility improvements and expansions. DOE is also committed to environmental stewardship. The laboratory is located on the ~32,000-acre (~13,000-ha) Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR), much of which is categorized as a National Environmental Research Park (NERP) and a state Wildlife Management Area. DOE works with the Tennessee Wildlife Resources Agency (TWRA), Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation (TDEC), US Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), US Department of Agriculture, and other agencies to serve as an effective steward of the ORR. Accordingly, project managers must conform to environmental regulations, agreements, and policies at the federal, state, and institutional levels. Per 40 CFR (Code of Federal Regulations) 1508.14, potential effects on research and science education also represent potential effects of federal actions on the NERP, and impacts on, e.g., deer harvest, must be considered on the Oak Ridge Wildlife Management Area when other aspects of the human environment are affected. The United States currently has no fast neutron testing capability to support advanced nuclear research and development. The proposed Versatile Test Reactor (VTR) will take advantage of current investments by the US government and private industry in nuclear reactors to expedite the design and construction process, using proven technology to create a world-class scientific infrastructure. The VTR will take advantage of fast neutrons provided by this proven technology, along with a capability to rapidly insert, conduct, and remove state-of-the-art experiments. An advantage of the VTR is that it can support future innovations in experimental capabilities without modifying the facility. The VTR will support progress in a variety of science and technology areas, including testing and qualification of advanced reactor fuels; testing and qualification of innovative structural materials; testing of innovative components and instruments; validation of advanced modeling and simulation tools; and versatility for future technical missions. Through proven technology, the VTR can take advantage of existing reactor designs and operating experience to reduce the risk, cost, and time for design and construction. The top available resources of DOE laboratories, industry, and universities will be used to expedite reactor design and construction toward developing the scientific infrastructure that affords a strong testing capability that can be sustained over many years. This report summarizes current knowledge of natural and cultural resources primarily within the VTR construction area. At the time of this report, the proposed VTR site design includes a construction area of ~150.4 acres (~69.9 ha), which contains an ~51.3-acre (~20.8-ha) operations area, located within forested natural areas of the ORR. The primary goal of the work presented here was to evaluate potential effects on sensitive resources that might result from development and construction activities associated with VTR. In addition to on-the-ground surveys during spring and summer 2020 by the ORNL Natural Resources Management Program and Aquatic Ecology Group staff, this report makes use of historical (pre-1995) and contemporary (1995 to present) data from additional confirmed sources (e.g., TDEC). Likewise, forest conditions were compiled from a 2011 forest inventory and supplemented with limited ground observations in 2020. The individuals who obtained and compiled the data presented here are familiar with and routinely assess sensitive resources on the ORR. Anyone who references this report must consider that the timing of surveys did not permit a complete delineation of the resources that will be affected. If the VTR project proceeds, additional surveys will be required to account for the seasonal patterns of various threatened and endangered species. Data deficiencies and potential resources that likely went undetected are indicated where possible. Accordingly, this report should facilitate more environmentally sound decisions during planning and 2 development of the VTR site, provide a foundation for further assessment of sensitive and cultural resources, and help project managers better address regulatory guidance and DOE policies on sustainable development in compliance with, for example, the US Endangered Species Act (ESA), Migratory Bird Treaty Act (MBTA), Tennessee Rare Plant Protection and Conservation Act of 1985, Tennessee Nongame and Endangered or Threatened Wildlife Species Conservation Act of 1974, several federal and state regulations regarding aquatic resource protection, and site-specific policies as outlined in various ORR management plans developed by ORNL and TWRA for DOE.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Connected Communities: A Multi-Building Energy Management Approach

Connected Communities (CCs) are collections of buildings and distributed energy resources (DERs) that incorporate integrated energy management strategies at the multi-building scale. Based on the research conducted for this report, RMI and NREL have identified examples of CCs that are enabling increasingly integrated solutions, sharing resources among buildings, and providing services back to the grid. As demonstrated by these examples, CCs can provide real and scalable solutions to mitigate energy costs, enable more flexibility in grid operations, and offer choices in meeting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions goals. Nationwide examples of these solutions are included in the appendix of this report. In order to understand the most promising practices for the design, operation, and business models associated with CCs, a search was performed to create a nationwide inventory of CCs and multiple stakeholder interviews were conducted. Based on that research, this paper explores the many factors that influence the development and operation of CCs and evaluates their potential value.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Grid Resiliency with a 100% Renewable Microgrid

San Diego Gas & Electric Company (SDG&E) installed America’s first and largest utility-scale microgrid in Borrego Springs in 2013. The first generation Borrego Springs Microgrid utilized diesel generators to form and stabilize the microgrid island, with support from grid-scale batteries and local solar photovoltaic (PV) generation. In this project, SDG&E in partnership with National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) demonstrated through modeling, simulation and utility field testing that blackstart and islanding of the microgrid can be led with 100% renewable, inverter based resources (IBRs), to help reduce community reliance on conventional generation resources. Through equipment upgrades, grid-forming island leader capability was transitioned to a battery IBR instead of the Borrego Springs Microgrid diesel generators. A new microgrid controller was integrated to the microgrid and programmed to control and manage multiple energy storage systems. Synchrophasor and other power quality data verified autonomous, high-speed response of the IBRs through blackstart, islanding, and load step testing. Results of project field evaluations provide distribution systems operators (DSO) with increased confidence that renewable, IBR can replace traditional generators to blackstart and island microgrids and rapidly establish stable island frequency with rapid changes in peak power demand. Importantly, the project validated the integration feasibility of a distributed energy resource management system (DERMS) controller that manages multiple grid-forming and grid-following IBRs, establishing a standard design interface to reduce the complexity of integrating new DERs in the future and supporting replication by the industry. As a result of learnings in this project, SDG&E has implemented the microgrid controller strategy at multiple other microgrid sites, thereby validating the replicability of the solution. Hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) simulations including power and controller HIL hardware — along with electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulations of Borrego Springs Microgrid —informed adjustments to inverter parameters and were important to characterize the performance of the IBRs in relevant operating conditions before deployment. The EMT and HIL simulations of islanding the entire community are important contributions in providing confidence in IBR performance prior to future islanding of the community in the field. High-fidelity EMT and/or HIL simulation of IBRs can de-risk field operations, and its relevance and importance as a tool is increasing as distribution grids and microgrids become more complex and dynamic with an increasing proportion of renewable generation, distributed energy storage, and two-way power and energy flows.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Natural Resources Assessment for the SNS Second Target Station, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

The US Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is a leading institution in advanced materials, supercomputing, neutrons, and nuclear science. As a research laboratory managed by UT-Battelle, LLC for DOE, ORNL has national priorities in energy, security, and scientific discovery that necessitate facility improvements and expansions. DOE is also committed to environmental stewardship. The laboratory is located on the ~32,000-acre Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR), much of which is categorized as a National Environmental Research Park and a state Wildlife Management Area. DOE works with the Tennessee Wildlife Resources Agency (TWRA), Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation (TDEC), US Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), US Department of Agriculture, and other agencies to serve as an effective steward of the ORR. Accordingly, project managers must conform to environmental regulations, agreements, and policies at the federal, state, and institutional levels. Per 40 CFR (Code of Federal Regulations) 1508.14, potential effects on research and science education on the National Environmental Research Park represent potential impacts of federal actions. Moreover, federal actions that affect the quantity and quality of hunting opportunities and deer reduction harvest on the Oak Ridge Wildlife Management Area must be considered whenever other aspects of the human environment (as defined by NEPA) are affected. The Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) is a premiere facility at ORNL that provides advanced capabilities in neutron scattering to promote new discoveries and research opportunities in material sciences, physics, chemistry, biological sciences, and others. A conceptual design for a Second Target Station (STS) has been in consideration for several years. The STS is intended to complement and enhance existing ORNL capabilities, notably research and exploration of complex materials. The proposed STS will involve development of existing natural areas on the ORR, which might contain sensitive resources that require mitigation or avoidance in accordance with existing policies and regulation. This report summarizes current knowledge of natural and cultural resources within the STS project area. At the time of this report, the proposed STS project consisted of an operations area comprising 55.4 acres (22.4 ha) and a total review area for potential construction comprising ~224 acres (90.6 ha). The review area is located primarily within forested natural areas of the ORR with minor development in the form of power-line rights-of-way and secondary/graveled roads (Figure 1). The primary goal was to evaluate potential effects on sensitive resources that might result from development of the STS. In addition to onthe-ground surveys during summer 2009 and fall 2019 to summer 2020 by ORNL Natural Resources Management Program and Aquatic Ecology Group staff, this report makes use of historical (pre-1995) and contemporary (1995 to present) data from additional confirmed sources (e.g., TDEC). Likewise, forest conditions were compiled primarily from a 2013 forest inventory effort for Forest Management Compartment 17 and supplemented with limited ground observations in 2019. The individuals who obtained and compiled the data that are presented here are familiar with and routinely assess sensitive resources on the ORR.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

National Energy Water Treatment & Speciation (NEWTS): A Water & Critical Mineral Database and Dashboard

The scarcity of water resources, the need for beneficial water reuse, and the challenges of wastewater treatment are becoming increasingly pressing in economic, social, and environmental domains. Addressing these concerns requires effective treatment strategies to manage wastewater streams and tackle environmental and economic issues. Furthermore, the recovery of critical minerals from the waste streams associated with energy production holds the promise of offsetting treatment costs and securing local sources of valuable minerals. However, relevant data on these waste streams are dispersed and challenging to locate. The process of ingesting such data into modeling software often involves multiple steps, requiring data restructuring to meet software-input requirements. The non-standardized reporting of water data makes data aggregation and reformatting a time-consuming process. Additionally, essential attributes necessary for modeling water treatment and mineral scale formation are frequently missing. Moreover, data gaps vary depending on the region of interest. Consequently, there is a pressing need for high-quality energy-water composition data that can be easily imported into water chemistry modeling software. To address this need, the National Energy Technology Laboratory has created the National Energy Water Treatment and Speciation (NEWTS) Database and Dashboard—a free online tool catering to community leaders and water researchers. NEWTS facilitates a comprehensive understanding of the composition of energy-related wastewater streams in the United States. The datasets provide detailed concentrations and speciation of major and minor aqueous compounds in energy-related wastewater streams, including power plant leachate, acid mine drainage, brackish water, and oil and gas produced water across the United States. Many of the aqueous species are critical minerals (Li, REEs) in high demand to modernize the world’s energy infrastructure. Many of the datasets also contain volumetric flow-rates needed to model the treatment and reuse scenarios in advanced aqueous chemistry software programs. The NEWTS Database and Dashboard offer public access to hitherto challenging-to-access datasets, presented in a standardized format that is tailored for easy input into aqueous chemistry modeling software. By performing the work needed to transform dispersed, disparate data sources into unified, model-ready datasets, NEWTS serves as an essential resource in advancing water treatment research and sustainable water resource management.

produced water management↗

Sensitive Resources Assessment and Forest Analysis for The SSP-2A Parcel and Proposed Oak Ridge Enhanced Technology and Training Center (ORETTC), Oak Ridge, Tennessee

This report summarizes current knowledge of natural and cultural resources associated with potential land use changes within an 81-acre (32.8-hectare) parcel, termed SSP-2A, on the US Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) in Oak Ridge, Tennessee (Figure 1). A primary goal for the work presented here was to evaluate potential impacts to sensitive resources within the SSP-2A parcel that might result from land disturbance and construction of the Oak Ridge Enhanced Technology and Training Center (ORETTC). In addition to on-the-ground surveys of the ORETTC footprint and SSP-2A parcel during summer 2020 (Figure 1), this report leverages historical (pre-1995) and contemporary (1995–present) data from additional sources such as the Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation (TDEC). The individuals who obtained and compiled the data that are presented here are familiar with and routinely assess, manage, and research sensitive resources on the ORR. This report should facilitate more environmentally sound decisions during planning and development of the ORETTC, provide a foundation for further assessment of sensitive and cultural resources associated with the broader SSP-2A parcel (should additional actions take place), and help project managers address regulatory guidance and DOE policy on sustainable development. Those who reference this report must consider that the timing of surveys does not permit complete delineation of resources. Data deficiencies are indicated where possible. Additional surveys may be required to account for seasonal patterns of various threatened and endangered species (e.g., bats), and additional assessment will be required if activities extend beyond the ORETTC site (Figure 2).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Proxy-based Bayesian inversion of strain tensor data measured during well tests

Recent instrument developments have made it possible to measure the strain tensor caused by injecting or pumping fluid from aquifers or reservoirs, but the full value of these data is limited because the long runtimes of poroelastic forward models makes it impractical to use many inversion schemes. This limits the interpretation of strain data for managing the recovery of resources or storage of wastes in the subsurface. This paper describes a method of inverting deformation data using a poroelastic numerical simulator so the results can be used to manage reservoirs or aquifers. We developed a workflow designed to reduce the number of simulations sufficiently to make it feasible to use DREAMzs, an advanced Bayesian inversion method that translates the uncertainties from different sources into unbiased posterior parameter distributions and uncertainty envelopes around the field data. Using a KNN proxy model for the poroelastic simulator is key to reducing the overall computations, and the workflow includes a strategy for ensuring the proxy model results converge on the results from the simulator. The workflow is tested using an idealized example that verifies the ability to correctly identify parameters and characterize noise used to perturb the data. Field data from an injection test at an oil reservoir near Tulsa, Oklahoma, are also used to evaluate the efficacy of the workflow with a real dataset. The workflow identified 265 history matching solutions out of 1240 total simulation runs (21% acceptance ratio), where the results were used to characterize posterior parameter distribution and evaluate the prediction uncertainty. Furthermore, this workflow is significant because it enables strain tensor, or other geomechanical measurements to be interpreted to guide decision-making during energy and environmental processes in the subsurface.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Benchmarking Near-Surface Winds in the HRRR Analyses Using Multisource Observations over Complex Terrain in the Southeastern United States

Wind energy plays a crucial role in sustainable power generation, yet its full potential in the southeast United States (SEUS) remains underexplored. This study advances wind resource assessment in the SEUS using existing regional modeling and multisource observations. We find that terrain complexity, influenced by orography and forest canopy, significantly impacts the accuracy of modeled wind speed. While the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model effectively simulates wind profiles over flat, nonforested terrain, larger errors are produced above forest canopies, and particularly for those stands in hilly and mountainous terrain where there are no observations aloft that could be used by HRRR’s data assimilation software. Seasonal variations, e.g., changes in the leaf area index, further complicate the relationship between terrain complexity and simulation errors. Here, our findings emphasize the critical need for comprehensive wind profile measurements, extending from below the canopy to height above the canopy and through the lower planetary boundary layer, to fully quantify model performance over and near forests, and for improving wind resource assessment, planning, and management. This study provides valuable insights not only for further model development but also for future field campaign deployment with the goal of further improving our understanding of wind resources in the region.

Complex terrain↗