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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 559 records · Page 31
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Hyaloscypha finlandica Metabolome Repository

This repository provides the curated data tables, manuscript figure and table exports, dependency records, and workflow scripts supporting an integrated comparative genomics and untargeted LC-MS/MS metabolomics analysis of Hyaloscypha finlandica strain PMI 746, a root-associated dark septate endophyte of poplar. The repository includes genome-mining summaries from antiSMASH, FunBGCeX, BGC-Prophet, and BiG-SCAPE; processed metabolomics inputs; metabolite annotation evidence; statistical outputs; and publication-facing figures and tables. Raw LC-MS/MS spectra, full genome/protein downloads, and large generated tool outputs are referenced through public archive/accession records and are not stored in Git.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Development and performance evaluation of a novel γ-γ coincidence analysis software

Processing of large amounts of data from a γ-γ coincidence system is a practical challenge in trace-level radionuclide measurements. Given the benefits and growing number of multidimensional gamma spectrometers worldwide, this is a major restriction in wide-spread applicability of coincidence techniques. This study demonstrates a novel γ-γ coincidence analysis software developed at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, USA. The software utilizes advanced search techniques and Python libraries to readily identify coincidence signatures in the large data. Further, using both synthetic and experimental data, the study uncovers various strategies/libraries employed during software’s development. This work aims to provide a reference document in handling large data routinely encountered in trace-level measurements.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

EVSE Cybersecurity and Resilience

Consequence-driven Cybersecurity Analysis for Extreme Fast Charging Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Electric vehicle (EV) development and associated charging infrastructure are expected to advance rapidly. Thirty percent of all global vehicle sales may be EVs and hybrid EVs by 2025, and they will rely on increasingly sophisticated strategies for grid integration. Next-generation EV charging infrastructure is expected to include interconnected renewable resources, such as photovoltaic (PV) arrays and battery storage systems, along with grid-edge devices. Although distributed energy resources (DERs) are useful in several ways, such as peak shaving at high demand times and backup supply for added resilience, the integration of vehicle charging and DERs could create more avenues for cyberattack. Physical and/or remote access to EV charging station components, including charge ports, power electronics, controllers, and local generation (e.g., PV and energy storage) could be paths to cause power fluctuations, leading to altered operations at the charging station, escalated privileges to administrative systems, exfiltration of financial information (including personally identifiable information), and reduced grid stability. One compromised EV supply equipment component can open the door to a variety of exploitable vulnerabilities. Cloud computing and mobile application control have the potential to expand the threat surface to non-repudiation and firmware integrity challenges. Vendor clouds have access to hundreds of chargers, and if compromised, can scale the attack surface exponentially. The high power and voltage levels of xFC infrastructure (e.g., 400 kW at 1000- V DC) increase the hazards and ability to impact the grid and vehicles more than lower-power charging systems. Legacy communications systems and protocols could also put EV infrastructure at risk of cyberattacks requiring a robust patch management process. Communications networks link EVs and chargers to several stakeholders - including charging station operators, grid operators, vendors/manufacturers, and aggregators - who have both physical and network access to share information for control, monitoring, and analytics. Information in these networks that is vulnerable to compromise includes the state of charge, charging duration, payment information, electricity price, and load control. Analyzing and prioritizing these interconnections risks could help address cybersecurity related to data leakage and manipulation.

charging↗
DOE OSTI2021

De novo transcriptome analysis of white teak (Gmelina arborea Roxb) wood reveals critical genes involved in xylem development and secondary metabolism

Gmelina arborea Roxb is a fast-growing tree species of commercial importance for tropical countries due to multiple industrial uses of its wood. Wood is primarily composed of thick secondary cell walls of xylem cells which imparts the strength to the wood. Identification of the genes involved in the secondary cell wall biosynthesis as well as their cognate regulators is crucial to understand how the production of wood occurs and serves as a starting point for developing breeding strategies to produce varieties with improved wood quality, better paper pulping or new potential uses such as biofuel production. In order to gain knowledge on the molecular mechanisms and gene regulation related with wood development in white teak, a de novo sequencing and transcriptome assembly approach was used employing secondary cell wall synthesizing cells from young white teak trees. For generation of transcriptome, RNA-seq reads were assembled into 110,992 transcripts and 49,364 genes were functionally annotated using plant databases; 5071 GO terms and 25,460 SSR markers were identified within xylem transcripts and 10,256 unigenes were assigned to KEGG database in 130 pathways. Among transcription factor families, C2H2, C3H, bLHLH and MYB were the most represented in xylem. Differential gene expression analysis using leaves as a reference was carried out and a total of 20,954 differentially expressed genes were identified including monolignol biosynthetic pathway genes. The differential expression of selected genes (4CL, COMT, CCoAOMT, CCR and NST1) was validated using qPCR. We report the very first de novo transcriptome of xylem-related genes in this tropical timber species of commercial importance and constitutes a valuable extension of the publicly available transcriptomic resource aimed at fostering both basic and breeding studies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Beyond Single-Reference Fixed-Node Approximation in Ab Initio Diffusion Monte Carlo Using Antisymmetrized Geminal Power Applied to Systems with Hundreds of Electrons

Diffusion Monte Carlo (DMC) is an exact technique to project out the ground state (GS) of a Hamiltonian. Since the GS is always bosonic, in Fermionic systems, the projection needs to be carried out while imposing antisymmetric constraints, which is a nondeterministic polynomial hard problem. In practice, therefore, the application of DMC on electronic structure problems is made by employing the fixed-node (FN) approximation, consisting of performing DMC with the constraint of having a fixed, predefined nodal surface. How do we get the nodal surface? The typical approach, applied in systems having up to hundreds or even thousands of electrons, is to obtain the nodal surface from a preliminary mean-field approach (typically, a density functional theory calculation) used to obtain a single Slater determinant. This is known as single reference. In this paper, we propose a new approach, applicable to systems as large as the C 60 fullerene, which improves the nodes by going beyond the single reference. In practice, we employ an implicitly multireference ansatz (antisymmetrized geminal power wave function constraint with molecular orbitals), initialized on the preliminary mean-field approach, which is relaxed by optimizing a few parameters of the wave function determining the nodal surface by minimizing the FN-DMC energy. We highlight the improvements of the proposed approach over the standard single-reference method on several examples and, where feasible, the computational gain over the standard multireference ansatz, which makes the methods applicable to large systems. We also show that physical properties relying on relative energies, such as binding energies, are affordable and reliable within the proposed scheme.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Moiré engineering in van der Waals heterostructures

Isolated atomic planes can be assembled into a multilayer van der Waals (vdW) heterostructure in a precisely chosen sequence. These heterostructures feature moiré patterns if the constituent 2D material layers are stacked in an incommensurable way, due to a lattice mismatch or twist. This design-by-stacking has opened up the promising area of moiré engineering, a term that can be understood in two different perspectives, namely, (i) structural—engineering a moiré pattern by introducing twist, relative strain, or defects that affect the commensurability of the layers and (ii) functional—exploiting a moiré pattern to find and tune resulting physical properties of a vdW heterostructure. The latter meaning, referring to the application of a moiré pattern, is seen in the literature in the specific context of the observation of correlated electronic states and unconventional superconductivity in twisted bilayer graphene. The former meaning, referring to the design of the moiré pattern itself, is present in the literature but less commonly discussed or less understood. The underlying link between these two perspectives lies in the deformation field of the moiré superlattice. In this Perspective, we describe a path from designing a moiré pattern to employing the moiré pattern to tune physical properties of a vdW heterostructure. We also discuss the concept of moiré engineering in the context of twistronics, strain engineering, and defect engineering in vdW heterostructures. Although twistronics is always associated with moiré superlattices, strain and defect engineering are often not. Here, in this work, we demonstrate how strain and defect engineering can be understood within the context of moiré engineering. Adopting this perspective, we note that moiré engineering creates a compelling opportunity to design and develop multiscale electronic devices.

2D materials↗
DOE OSTI2025

Doppler Backscattering Data Analysis and Integrated Modeling with OMFIT

One Modeling Framework for Integrated Tasks (OMFIT) is a widely used software tool in the magnetic fusion research community. OMFIT provides magnetic fusion energy researchers with a framework for the development of special-purpose physics modules. This paper describes an OMFIT physics module pertaining to the Doppler Backscattering (DBS) fusion plasma diagnostic. DBS measures density fluctuations and flow velocity through plasma scattering of electromagnetic waves. The OMFIT DBS module was developed to analyze experimental DBS data and facilitate modeling of DBS systems installed on multiple tokamak devices. The OMFIT DBS module is designed to support several analysis workflows: detailed analysis of experimental data, experimental planning, and theory-based synthetic diagnostic modeling. The DBS module uses integrated modeling by leveraging other OMFIT physics modules to perform tasks related to DBS, e.g. ray/beam–tracing simulations, edge-localized mode–synchronized data analysis, magnetic equilibrium reconstruction, and fitting kinetic profile data. Furthermore, this paper describes several supported workflows and serves a reference for the OMFIT DBS module.

Doppler backscattering↗
DOE OSTI2021

Underestimated marine stratocumulus cloud feedback associated with overly active deep convection in models

Cloud feedback remains the largest source of uncertainty in equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). Many studies have attempted to narrow uncertainties in cloud feedback and ECS by proposing observable metrics with high skill at predicting future climate, referred to as emergent constraints. These constraints are often associated with clouds, convection, and circulation, and are interrelated. However, physical explanations for these connections remain unclear. Here, we propose a new mechanism relating convection and clouds across multiple climate models. Some models show overly active deep convection on daily timescales in the subtropical low cloud regions, which contributes to weaker subsidence inversion and smaller amounts of low-level clouds. Such models predict smaller shortwave (SW) cloud feedback. Using precipitation frequency in these regions as an emergent constraint, encapsulating this mechanism, models with lower SW cloud feedback (<0.50 W m -2 °C - 1) are found to exhibit erroneously frequent convection. Our results suggest that further improvements in understanding and better modeling of cloud and convective systems are necessary for accurate climate predictions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Asset Management: Beyond 2020

This Asset Management Beyond 2020 document provides: (1) an introduction to asset management (AM) and an asset management system (AMS), along with insights to next steps, (2) an overview of the International Standards Organization (ISO) 55000 series documents, (3) an overview of the ISO 55001 gap analysis of Center 4700/4800 ("Facilities") organizations at Sandia National Laboratories, hereafter referred to as Sandia, with observations, gaps, and gap closure recommendations, and (4) an asset management architecture (AMA) recommendation aligned with the ISO 55001. The AMS and the AM are different but related. ISO 55000 cites AMS as "a management system for AM" to "direct, coordinate, and control AM activities." ISO 55000 cites AM as translating "the organizational objectives into technical and financial decisions, plans and activities."1 Essentially, the AMS begins with all levels of leadership to enable a structured and consistent approach to AM culminating in lifecycle asset management excellence.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Detection of MeV-Scale Gammas from Pion/Muon Nuclear Capture With the LArIAT Liquid Argon TPC

LArIAT (Liquid Argon In A Testbeam) is a LArTPC experiment at Fermilab which aims to understand and characterize interactions of neutrino final-state products with Argon. Tracks for pions and muons in LArTPCs are difficult to differentiate since both particles exhibit very similar ionization densities. We are exploring unique new particle discrimination capabilities for pions and muons by exploiting information from small, isolated ionization depositions, referred to as "blips", reconstructed near the endpoint of stopping tracks. These blips are formed by gammas emitted when an at-rest pion or muon captures on the argon nucleus. The relatively low beam energy provided by LArIAT makes it uniquely suited for performing this demonstration. In this talk, an overview of event candidate selection and reconstruct blips corresponding to our signal of interest, nuclear captures of pions and muons at rest inside LArIAT's TPC, and how we estimate and subtract backgrounds from these capture-at-rest blip signals.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Measurements of Pion and Muon Nuclear Capture at Rest on Argon in the LArIAT Test Beam Experiment

LArIAT is a liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) experiment in a test beam at Fermilab from 2015 to 2017 to understand and characterize interactions of particles in LAr which are commonly observed in neutrino-Ar final-states. Tracks for pions and muons in LArTPCs are difficult to differentiate since both particles exhibit very similar ionization profiles for muon and pion that stop in the TPC. We are exploring unique new particle discrimination capabilities by exploiting information from small, isolated ionization depositions, referred to as "blips", reconstructed near the endpoint of stopping tracks. These blips are formed by gammas emitted when an at-rest pion or muon captures on the argon nucleus. The relatively low beam energy provided by LArIAT makes it uniquely suited for performing this demonstration. In this poster, we present an overview of event candidate selection, blip reconstruction, and background subtraction corresponding to our signal of interest, nuclear captures of pions and muons at rest inside LArIAT's TPC.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Experimental study of the partitioning of some platinum group elements (Pd and Ir) between orthopyroxene and silicate melt

Past experiments and observations on natural samples have largely focused on the roles of olivine and chromite in controlling the behaviour of the platinum-group elements (PGE) during melting and solidification, whereas other phases, such as pyroxene, have gone largely uncharacterized. Here, to address this, experiments have been done to measure the partitioning of Pd (with a subset of results for Ir), between orthopyroxene and silicate melt at 1340 °C, 0.1 MPa and log fO 2 of FMQ - 1 to FMQ + 6 (FMQ = Fayalite-Magnetite-Quartz). The X-ray Absorption Near-Edge Structure (XANES) was measured in a subset of experiment glasses. Glass concentrations of Pd (corrected to unit Pd activity) increase from ~6 to ~650 ug/g over the fO 2 range of experiments. The slope of the solubility-fO 2 relation is consistent with Pd 1+ as the dominant oxidation state, with evidence for Pd 0 and Pd 2+ at the lowest and highest experiment fO 2 , respectively. Consistent with this result, the XANES reveal spectral features similar to Pd 0 and Pd 2+ spectral reference materials (specRM) at the most reduced and oxidized synthesis conditions, respectively. Other lines of evidence require the presence of a third melt species, here interpreted to be Pd 1+ . Values of orthopyroxene/melt partition coefficients for Pd (D Pd Opx/melt ) are 0.0051 (+/-0.006) at log fO 2 < ΔFMQ + 3, increasing with fO 2 to a maximum of 0.013 at ~FMQ + 6. Sodium partition coefficients, expected to be similar to Pd, range from 0.0061 (+/-0.00061) at FMQ + 3, increase to 0.007–0.009 at higher fO 2 , but with no clear systematic trend. A value for D Ir Opx-melt of ~0.6 was measured at ~FMQ + 4, indicating significantly more compatible behaviour for Ir relative to Pd. Partitioning results are interpreted in the context of the Blundy-Wood elastic strain model in which the variation in partitioning is related to ionic radius mismatch to an optimal crystallographic site size. Based on the trend in ionic radius with oxidation state, the estimated ionic radius of Pd 1+ in octahedral coordination is similar to Na 1+ , and comparison to previous orthopyroxene-melt partitioning experiments suggests D Pd1+ opx/melt and DNaopx/melt should be nearly identical, consistent with the results of this study. The ionic radius of VI-fold Pd 2+ is close to the optimal M2 site size, so an increased proportion of this species with fO 2 accounts for the larger values of D Pd opx/melt at the highest fO 2 investigated. The much larger partition coefficient for Ir is consistent with the presence of Ir 2+ , whose estimated ionic radius is close to Fe 2+ and Mg 2+ , as well as predictions for the optimal M1 site size. With the assumption that D Pd opx/melt = D Na opx/melt , combined with a revised value for the Pd content of the primitive mantle, a melting model is presented that better reproduces the Pd concentration of high degree melts from sulfide-free mantle sources.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Can lidars assess wind plant blockage in simple terrain? A WRF-LES study

Wind plant blockage reduces wind velocity upstream of wind plants, reducing the power generated by turbines adjacent to the inflow, and potentially throughout the plant as well. The nature of the mechanism that amplifies blockage as well as the velocity reductions in both the induction zone and potentially deeper into the array are not well understood. Field observations can provide valuable insight into the characteristics of the induction zone and the mechanisms that amplify it. However, the relatively small velocity reductions that have been measured experimentally pose a challenge in quantifying blockage, especially in onshore environments with flow heterogeneities that may be of the same scale as the blockage effect itself. We simulate the flow around the King Plains wind plant in the relatively simple terrain of Oklahoma, the location of the American WAKE experimeNt, to evaluate wind plant blockage in this environment. Using numerical simulations, we find the largest velocity deceleration (0.64 m s−1; 8%) immediately upstream of the wind plant, and 1% velocity deficits 24 rotor diameters upstream of the first turbine row. We also use virtual measurements upstream of the wind plant to analyze the uncertainties and difficulties in measuring blockage using a scanning lidar on shore. Based on our virtual lidar study, the induction zone of land-based wind plants can be incorrectly estimated using observations if the effects of nonuniform terrain on the flow are not carefully considered. Changes in terrain elevation produce local variations in wind speed (as measured by a scanning lidar) that exceed in magnitude the deceleration within the induction zone. We refer to these local changes in wind speed as terrain effects. A methodology to differentiate between terrain effects and blockage in experimental settings is proposed and evaluated herein, highlighting the difficulties and uncertainties associated with measurement and simulation of blockage in even relatively simple onshore environments.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Recent progress in the theory of bulk photovoltaic effect

The bulk photovoltaic effect (BPVE) occurs in solids with broken inversion symmetry and refers to DC generation due to uniform illumination, without the need of heterostructures or interfaces, a feature that is distinct from the traditional photovoltaic effect. Its existence has been demonstrated almost 50 years ago, but predictive theories only appeared in the last ten years, allowing for the identification of different mechanisms and the determination of their relative importance in real materials. It is now generally accepted that there is an intrinsic mechanism that is insensitive to scattering, called shift current, where first-principles calculations can now give highly accurate predictions. Another important but more extrinsic mechanism, called ballistic current, is also attracting a great deal of attention, but due to the complicated scattering processes, its numerical calculation for real materials is only made possible quite recently. In addition, an intrinsic ballistic current, usually referred to as injection current, will appear under circularly polarized light and has wide application in experiments. In this review, experiments that are pertinent to the theory development are reviewed, and a significant portion is devoted to discussing the recent progress in the theories of BPVE and their numerical implementations. As a demonstration of the capability of the newly developed theories, a brief review of the materials' design strategies enabled by the theory development is given. Finally, remaining questions in the BPVE field and possible future directions are discussed to inspire further investigations.

Dai, Zhenbang (ORCID:0000000333046008)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Competitiveness Metrics for Electricity System Technologies

The relative economic competitiveness of power generation technologies is a topic of much interest to diverse electric industry participants. However, assessing competitiveness can be challenging as it requires considering both total costs and total system value of each technology, which are complicated by the (1) numerous and diverse grid services needed to operate a reliable power system; (2) variations in the economic value of the grid services with system state and location, and over multiple timescales, due to the challenges of transporting and storing electricity; and (3) the unique characteristics of different electric system assets. Ideally, metrics designed or used to convey technology competitiveness must consider these complexities, but existing metrics often fall short. For example, the levelized cost of energy does not consider the system economic value of the various technologies nor does it consider services beyond electricity production. Various other metrics have been designed with the purpose of more-accurately communicating the economic viability of electric system technologies. In this report, we summarize the primary sources and components of costs and value and review the known competitiveness metrics by presenting their definitions, applications, advantages, and disadvantages. We also introduce a new set of competitiveness metrics, which we refer to as System Profitability metrics, that more-directly applies the economic principles of return-on-investment to electric system technologies. We use conceptual examples to show how the System Profitability metrics better reflect economic viability and relative technology competitiveness compared with existing metrics. We also describe how competitiveness metrics can be quantified using optimization-based models and demonstrate this capability using a U.S. electric sector capacity expansion model.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integrated Operations for Nuclear: Work Reduction Opportunity Demonstration

Integrated Operations for Nuclear: Work Reduction Opportunity Demonstration The DI BCA document also identifies specific, digitally enabled WRO categories for further study. These were selected as most relevant by Reference Plant personnel from a larger list of WRO areas identified across the nuclear industry as captured INL/RPT-21-64134, “Process for Significant Nuclear Work Function Innovation Based on Integrated Operations Concepts.” This ION WRO demonstration report was developed to provide illustrative, specific, and actionable direction for intertwined PTPG changes associated with digital modernization efforts. The coordinated changes in these areas are intended to maximize safe plant operational and economic performance. This includes enabling WROs associated with detailed configuration, implementation, and use of digital systems and how they are supported over their lifecycle. Illustrating this direction through a minimum set of advanced technology examples establishes a model PTPG framework that can be leveraged across the spectrum of nuclear plant digital modernization efforts going forward. This document addresses many related concepts. To promote an integrated understanding of the topics that make up this work, this document contains an extensive set of internal hyperlinks. This set includes hyperlinks to page numbers in the table of contents, section numbers, items in lists, figures, tables, and references to other documents within the report. When hovering the cursor above hyperlinked text in Adobe, the cursor will change from “ ” to “ .” When the “ ” appears, a left mouse click will take the reader to the referenced location in the document. To return to the original location in the document, the reader need only press and hold the “alt” button on the keyboard and then simultaneously press the “<” directional key on the keyboard.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Identification of Unique Fragmentation Patterns of Fentanyl Analog Protomers Using Structures for Lossless Ion Manipulations Ion Mobility-Orbitrap Mass Spectrometry

The opioid crisis in the United States is being fueled by the rapid emergence of new fentanyl analogs and precursors that can elude traditional library-based screening methods, which require data from known reference compounds. Since reference compounds are unavailable for new fentanyl analogs, we examined if fentanyls (fentanyl + fentanyl analogs) could be identified in a reference-free manner using a combination of electrospray ionization (ESI), high-resolution ion mobility (IM) spectrometry, high-resolution mass spectrometry (MS), and higher-energy collision-induced dissociation (MS/MS). We analyzed a mixture containing nine fentanyls and W-15 (a structurally similar molecule) and found that the protonated forms of all fentanyls uniquely exhibited two baseline separated IM distributions that produced different MS/MS patterns. Upon fragmentation, both IM distributions of all fentanyls produced two high intensity fragments resulting from amine site cleavages. The higher mobility distributions of all fentanyls also produced several low intensity fragments, but surprisingly, these same fragments exhibited much greater intensities in the lower mobility distributions. This observation demonstrates that many fragments of fentanyls predominantly originate from one of two different gas-phase structures (suggestive of protomers). Furthermore, increasing the water concentration in the ESI solution increased the intensity of the lower mobility distribution relative to the higher mobility distribution, which further supports that fentanyls exist as two gas-phase protomers. In conclusion, our new observations on the IM and MS/MS properties of fentanyls can be exploited to positively identify them as fentanyls without requiring reference libraries and will hopefully assist first responders and law enforcement in combating new and emerging fentanyls.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

The future evolution of energy-water-agriculture interconnectivity across the US

Abstract Energy, water, and agricultural resources across the globe are highly interconnected. This interconnectivity poses science challenges, such as understanding and modeling interconnections, as well as practical challenges, such as efficiently managing interdependent resource systems. Using the US as an example, this study seeks to define and explore how interconnectivity evolves over space and time under a range of influences. Concepts from graph theory and input–output analysis are used to visualize and quantify key intersectoral linkages using two new indices: the ‘Interconnectivity Magnitude Index’ and the ‘Interconnectivity Spread Index’. Using the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM-USA), we explore the future evolution of these indices under four scenarios that explore a range of forces, including socioeconomic and technological change. Analysis is conducted at both national and state level spatial scales from 2015 to 2100. Results from a Reference scenario show that resource interconnectivity in the US is primarily driven by water use amongst different sectors, while changes in interconnectivity are driven by a decoupling of the water and electricity systems, as power plants become more water-efficient over time. High population and GDP growth results in relatively more decoupling of sectors, as a larger share of water and energy is used outside of interconnected sector feedback loops. Lower socioeconomic growth results in the opposite trend. Transitioning to a low-carbon economy increases interconnectivity because of the expansion of purpose-grown biomass, which strengthens the connections between water and energy. The results highlight that while some regions may experience similar sectoral stress projections, the composition of the intersectoral connectivity leading to that sectoral stress may call for distinctly different multi-sector co-management strategies. The methodology we introduce here can be applied in diverse geographical and sectoral contexts to enable better understanding of where, when, and how coupling or decoupling between sectors could evolve and be better managed.

Khan, Zarrar (ORCID:0000000281478553)↗