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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 559 records · Page 31
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

EFIT-Prime: Probabilistic and physics-constrained reduced-order neural network model for equilibrium reconstruction in DIII-D

We introduce EFIT-Prime, a novel machine learning surrogate model for EFIT (Equilibrium FIT) that integrates probabilistic and physics-informed methodologies to overcome typical limitations associated with deterministic and ad hoc neural network architectures. EFIT-Prime utilizes a neural architecture search-based deep ensemble for robust uncertainty quantification, providing scalable and efficient neural architectures that comprehensively quantify both data and model uncertainties. Physically informed by the Grad–Shafranov equation, EFIT-Prime applies a constraint on the current density J tor and a smoothness constraint on the first derivative of the poloidal flux, ensuring physically plausible solutions. Furthermore, the spatial location of the diagnostics is explicitly incorporated in the inputs to account for their spatial correlation. Extensive evaluations demonstrate EFIT-Prime's accuracy and robustness across diverse scenarios, most notably showing good generalization on negative-triangularity discharges that were excluded from training. Timing studies indicate an ensemble inference time of 15 ms for predicting a new equilibrium, offering the possibility of plasma control in real-time, if the model is optimized for speed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Bayesian Approach for Estimating Uncertainty in Stochastic Economic Dispatch considering Wind Power Penetration

The increasing penetration of renewable energy resources in power systems, represented as random processes, converts the traditional deterministic economic dispatch problem into a stochastic one. To estimate the uncertainty in this stochastic economic dispatch problem for forecasting purposes, the conventional Monte-Carlo method is prohibitively time-consuming for practical applications. To overcome this problem, here we propose a novel Gaussian-process-emulator-based approach to quantify the uncertainty in the stochastic economic dispatch considering wind power penetration. Facing high-dimensional real-world data representing the correlated uncertainties from wind generation, a manifold-learning-based Isomap algorithm is proposed to efficiently represent the low-dimensional hidden probabilistic structure of the data. In this low-dimensional latent space, with Latin hypercube sampling as the computer experimental design, a Gaussian-process emulator is used, for the first time, to serve as a nonparametric, surrogate model for the original complicated stochastic economic dispatch model. This reduced-order representative allows us to evaluate the economic dispatch solver at sampled values with a negligible computational cost while maintaining a desirable accuracy. Simulation results conducted on the IEEE 118-bus test system reveal the impressive performance of the proposed method.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Time-series forecasting using manifold learning, radial basis function interpolation, and geometric harmonics

We address a three-tier numerical framework based on nonlinear manifold learning for the forecasting of high-dimensional time series, relaxing the “curse of dimensionality” related to the training phase of surrogate/machine learning models. At the first step, we embed the high-dimensional time series into a reduced low-dimensional space using nonlinear manifold learning (local linear embedding and parsimonious diffusion maps). Then, we construct reduced-order surrogate models on the manifold (here, for our illustrations, we used multivariate autoregressive and Gaussian process regression models) to forecast the embedded dynamics. Finally, we solve the pre-image problem, thus lifting the embedded time series back to the original high-dimensional space using radial basis function interpolation and geometric harmonics. The proposed numerical data-driven scheme can also be applied as a reduced-order model procedure for the numerical solution/propagation of the (transient) dynamics of partial differential equations (PDEs). In conclusion, we assess the performance of the proposed scheme via three different families of problems: (a) the forecasting of synthetic time series generated by three simplistic linear and weakly nonlinear stochastic models resembling electroencephalography signals, (b) the prediction/propagation of the solution profiles of a linear parabolic PDE and the Brusselator model (a set of two nonlinear parabolic PDEs), and (c) the forecasting of a real-world data set containing daily time series of ten key foreign exchange rates spanning the time period 3 September 2001–29 October 2020.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characterizing and improving the performance of molten-salt-steam heat exchangers in concentrating solar power plants

Shell-and-tube heat exchangers (HXs) for steam generation from molten salts in concentrating solar power (CSP) plants experience thermal fatigue due to significant temperature gradients and inherent transient operation. Molten salt-steam HX design lifespans exceed actual lifespans, and, as a consequence, designers overpredict plant profitability and operators neglect appropriate prescriptions to optimize these lifetimes. Here, this study refines HX lifespan estimates with data benchmarked against thermal-fluid mechanical modeling of stress and accumulated fatigue. Reduced-order thermal models of the molten salt-steam, shell-and-tube evaporator and superheater predict transient temperature profiles along the two HXs salt-steam flow paths. The modeled evaporator and superheater temperature profiles enable assessment of cyclic stresses within the HX tubesheets, where molten-salt HX failures are most common. Evaporator and superheater performance data from a current 110 MW elec commercial CSP plant provide a basis for validating the reduced-order HX models. HX life predictions derived from stochastic failure distributions serve as inputs for simulating and optimizing existing plant operations. The impact of the updated lifespans on overall plant revenue depends on operating scenarios. This study suggests that typical ramping rates for a CSP plant with a high-temperature Rankine cycle result in an evaporator and superheater life of approximately 10 and 25 years, respectively, compared to the design target of 30 years. Reduced HX lifespans decrease operational plant revenue on average by 4.6-5.1%. Furthermore, there may be as many as four HX replacements over the 30-year lifetime of the plant; and, purchase agreement loss due to failure to meet contractual production requirements can have ramifications that include the risk of bankruptcy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Physics-assisted Latent Space Dynamics Learning for Stiff Collisional-radiative Models

Collisional-radiative (CR) models describe the atomic processes in a plasma by tracking the population density in the ground and excited states for each charge state of the atom/ion. These models predict important plasma properties such as charge state distributions and radiative emissivity and opacity. Accurate descriptions of the CR balance of the plasma are essential in fusion whole device modeling, especially when significant impurities are introduced into the plasmas. In an integrated fusion plasma and CR simulation, a CR model, which is a high-dimensional stiff ODE, needs to be solved on each grid point in the configuration space, and can overwhelm the overall computational cost. In this work, we propose a machine-learning-based method that discovers a latent space and learns its corresponding latent dynamics, which can capture the essential physics to make accurate predictions at much lower online computational cost. The proposed approach is physics-assisted, due to its combination of a physical latent space and a data-driven latent space. It has been demonstrated that the proposed architecture can predict both the full-order CR dynamics and a physical quantity of interest accurately.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Design of a Combined Proportional Integral Derivative Controller to Regulate the Temperature Inside a High-Temperature Tubular Solar Reactor

Solar fuels are proven to be promising candidates for thermochemical energy storage. However, the transient nature of solar radiation is an obstacle to maintaining a stable operational temperature inside a solar reactor. To overcome this challenge, the temperature of a solar reactor can be regulated by controlling the incoming solar radiation or the feedstock flowrate inside the reactor. In this work, a combined proportional integral derivative (PID) controller is implemented to regulate the temperature inside a high-temperature tubular solar reactor with counter-current flowing gas/particles. The control model incorporates two control systems to regulate incoming solar radiation and gas flow simultaneously. The design of the controller is based on a reduced-order numerical model of a high-temperature tubular solar reactor that is vertically oriented with an upward gas flow and downward particle flow. The reactor receives heat circumferentially through its wall over a finite segment of its length. Formulation of the heat transfer model is presented by applying the energy balance for the reactor tube and considering heat and mass transfer inside. A set of governing differential equations are solved numerically by using the finite volume method to obtain reactor wall, particles, and gas temperatures along the reactor length with various boundary conditions. Simulation results are used to tune the PID controller parameters by utilizing the Ziegler–Nichols tuning method. Both the simulation results and the controller performance are visualized on the LABVIEW platform. The controller is challenged to track different temperature setpoints with different scenarios of transient solar radiation. Here, the performance of the PID controller was compared to experimental results obtained from an industrial PID controller embedded in a 7 kW electric furnace. Results show that the combined PID controller is successful in maintaining a stable temperature inside the reactor by regulating the incoming solar radiation and the flowrate via small steady-state error and reasonable settling time and overshoot.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using Chemical Reactor Models to Predict Fluidized Bed Pyrolysis Yields of Biomass Feedstocks

A detailed biomass pyrolysis kinetics scheme is implemented in reduced-order reactor models to predict chemical species yields from a fluidized bed reactor. The biomass composition in terms of cellulose, hemicellulose, lignins, and extractives are determined for several biomass feedstocks. Model results are compared to yields measured from a two-inch diameter bench-scale fluidized bed reactor operating at fast pyrolysis conditions. The reduced-order chemical reactor models compare favorably with the experimental measurements and capture trends in product yields due to biomass compositional effects such as high ash content. This work offers a computationally inexpensive approach to predict the quality of biomass pyrolysis products in a timely manner. Source code for the reactor models along with a biomass composition web tool are made available online for future scientific research efforts.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Numerical Analysis of Liquid Metal MHD Flow and Heat Transfer for Open-Surface Li Divertor in FNSF

Within the ongoing U.S.-based program on the development of liquid metal plasma-facing components, numerical simulations and analyses are performed to address the feasibility of the open-surface Li divertor. In the previous scoping studies (Smolentsev, 2021), heat-removal capabilities of the divertor were assessed using a simplified flow model for a slug-type velocity profile and constant flow thickness. Here, new analyses take into account forces acting on the flowing Li layer. Three reduced-order mathematical models are applied under the conditions of the U.S. Fusion Nuclear Science Facility (FNSF) to access magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) flow development effects, velocity distribution, and surface waves: 1) fully developed MHD flow; 2) quasi-2-D developing MHD flow; and 3) multiphase MHD flow. The obtained results for MHD flows and the surface heat flux computed with the plasma code scrape-off layer plasma simulation for ITER (SOLPS-ITER) are then used as input data to compute the temperature distribution in the divertor by solving the convection–diffusion energy equation.

Smolentsev, Sergey↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine-Learning Assisted Identification of Accurate Battery Lifetime Models with Uncertainty

Reduced-order battery lifetime models, which consist of algebraic expressions for various aging modes, are widely utilized for extrapolating degradation trends from accelerated aging tests to real-world aging scenarios. Identifying models with high accuracy and low uncertainty is crucial for ensuring that model extrapolations are believable, however, it is difficult to compose expressions that accurately predict multivariate data trends; a review of cycling degradation models from literature reveals a wide variety of functional relationships. Here, a machine-learning assisted model identification method is utilized to fit degradation in a stand-out LFP-Gr aging data set, with uncertainty quantified by bootstrap resampling. The model identified in this work results in approximately half the mean absolute error of a human expert model. Models are validated by converting to a state-equation form and comparing predictions against cells aging under varying loads. Parameter uncertainty is carried forward into an energy storage system simulation to estimate the impact of aging model uncertainty on system lifetime. The new model identification method used here reduces life-prediction uncertainty by more than a factor of three (86% ± 5% relative capacity at 10 years for human-expert model, 88.5% ± 1.5% for machine-learning assisted model), empowering more confident estimates of energy storage system lifetime.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reduced-order condensed-phase kinetic models for polyethylene, polypropylene and polystyrene thermochemical recycling

Thermochemical recycling of plastic waste (PW) into chemicals and energy vectors requires coupling particle and reactor-scale simulations to accurate condensed phase pyrolysis mechanisms for each constituent. This work proposes a methodology to derive reduced-order condensed-phase kinetic models from validated semi-detailed kinetic mechanisms. Two types of kinetic models are obtained for polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP) and polystyrene (PS): reduced semi-detailed models and multi-step fully lumped ones. These families offer different compromises between accuracy and computational cost. The former employ 50–100 gas + liquid species and describe both the radical degradation and the detailed carbon distribution of the products. Conversely, the latter involves 5–10 species per polymer tracking only the main petroleum cuts. The kinetic mechanisms are complemented by the definition of thermochemical properties of gas, liquid, and solid-phase species, accounting for phase-transitions through pseudo-chemical reactions. Model validations are performed by comparison with experimental data and the original semi-detailed mechanisms in terms of mass loss, heat fluxes and product distribution profiles. The resulting CHEMKIN-like condensed-phase models are attached as Supplementary Material and as a GitHub repository. Extending the proposed approach to other polymers and coupling it with existing subsets in the CRECK kinetic framework (e.g., biomass, PVC, PET) offers a powerful tool to model thermochemical recycling of PW and biomass/PW mixtures.

kinetics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Development of in-use engine speed/torque heat maps across multiple heavy-duty commercial vehicle vocations

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) established the SuperTruck program with the goal of achieving brake thermal efficiency (BTE) greater than or equal to 55% as demonstrated in an operational heavy-duty (HD) diesel engine at a 65-miles-per-hour (mph) cruise point. Beyond the line-haul application, HD engines operate in a wide range of speed and torque conditions that are unlikely to yield the same efficiency under real-world operation. Thereby, the in-use engine heat maps described in this paper are a valuable tool to illustrate whether the engine-efficiency “sweet spot” matches the most frequent operating conditions. In this study, NREL developed engine heat maps to quantify the important operating points for various vocations using our Fleet DNA database of commercial fleet vehicle operations data. These heat maps clearly show that high-frequency operating points vary significantly according to vehicle vocation, while only a few of them match the sweet spot. Beyond the illustration, engine in-use heat maps can also be leveraged to build up reduced-order engine-efficiency models, needed by many rapid powertrain simulations. As case studies, nine reduced-order models – including line-haul truck, transfer truck, transit bus, transit bus with compressed natural gas (CNG) engine, drayage, refuse pickup, local delivery, utility truck, and school bus with CNG engine – using a trust-region reflective algorithm to fit the on-road data extracted based on the engine in-use heat maps.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Improving Subsurface Stress Characterization for Carbon Dioxide Storage Projects by Incorporating Machine Learning Techniques

The overall objective of this project is to develop a framework for reliable characterization and prediction of the state of stress in the overburden and underburden (including the basement) in CO 2 storage reservoirs using machine learning and integrated geomechanics and geophysical methods. Specifically, we propose to develop workflow encompassing of technologies and/or methods to predict stress and pressure changes due to CO 2 injection in an active tertiary recovery site and their impacts on subtle fault activation, fractures and occurrence of microseismic events and compare responses to field observations. In this project, we anticipate using dataset from the Farnsworth field Unit (FWU) which is operated by Purdure Petroleum. A novel elastic-waveform VSP inversion technique will be used to estimate high-resolution spatial and temporal changes of elastic moduli in CO 2 storage reservoirs, which will be combined with velocity-stress relationship derived from laboratory tests to obtain subsurface pressure and stress. Clustered microseismic data will be jointly inverted for improved focal mechanisms. Least-squares reverse-time migration of microseismic waveform data will be performed to directly image fracture/fault zones. Additionally, a deep neural network machine learning technique with convolutional and recurrent layers will be used for learning the spectro-temporal structures in microseismic waveforms. The results of this geotechnical data analysis will be integrated to develop a high-resolution 3D mechanical earth model extending from the overburden sealing formations to the underburden including the basement. Mechanical properties will be derived through integration of mechanical logs, tests, available results from chemo-mechanical laboratory tests, and elastic inversion of seismic data using a combination of Bayesian and stochastic methods as well as machine learning technique. Failure features (faults/fractures) will be represented and/or modeled based on seismic and core data analysis. A transient hydrodynamic-geomechanical model will be developed through coupling with the calibrated FWU reservoir simulation model. The full physics coupled model will be used to train a reduced order proxy model using machine learning algorithm for estimating stress which will then be used with appropriate constitutive relationships and forward seismological models to simulate pressure changes and induced microseismicity. An advanced optimization framework will be developed to perform a history match to minimize error between field observations and simulated. The history matched proxy model will be verified against the full-physics equivalent. The field observations that will be used in the coupled model calibration process include pressure/stress inverted from VSP, moment magnitude from microseismic analysis, real time downhole pressure measurements, production and injection data. Parameter sensitivity and uncertainty analysis will be performed to characterize the impact of model parameter uncertainty on stress estimates. The proposed project will have significant impact on future field implementation of the proposed technology. Because the project field site is an ongoing CO 2 EOR development, the value of the new technology will be demonstrated in an operational context and evaluated as a viable risk mitigation strategy. Cost/benefit will be evaluated together with the various commercial incentives for CO 2 sequestration available to oil and gas operators. The extensive available dataset and ongoing data acquisition under the SWP Phase III work plan provides flexibility for investigation of multiple approaches and reduces technical risk.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sensor enabled data-driven predictive analytics for modeling and control with high penetration of DERs in distribution systems

The electric power grid is undergoing a tremendous transformation due to the increasing penetration of renewable energy resources beginning with wind and more recently with the distributed energy resources (DERs) such as solar and battery storage. DERs have dramatically changed the role of the distribution systems in the overall power grid, and they are expected to contribute a significant portion of power generation in the future. If current trends for DERs continue, system operation and control will need to change dramatically for improved grid reliability and resiliency. As renewable resources increase in penetration, new and challenging operational, planning, and design problems are expected to emerge. Some of the key challenges that arise in the planning and operation of the future grid are: 1) Quantifying the impact of high DER penetration in distribution systems on bulk grid behavior over multiple time scales. 2) Identifying whether a particular DER configuration/settings have a large impact on the overall grid behavior. These challenges can be addressed in an offline manner using detailed T&D grid models and they can also be addressed in an online manner using sensor measurements. In particular, the advancement and planned growth in sensor technology in power grid over various voltage levels provide us with a unique opportunity to tackle these challenges from a data analytic perspective without needing detailed T&D grid models. A few questions that naturally arise when addressing the challenges from DERs using sensor data are: 1) How can we use limited sensor measurements to monitor & control voltage stability and small signal stability of the bulk system? 2) How can we ensure that the developed data analytic methods are robust to data availability and quality issues? 3) How can we compute the developed analytics in a scalable manner using streaming measurements? In this project, we addressed the aforementioned challenges arising from DERs and answered the questions raised above on how to effectively use the sensor measurements to enhance the reliability and performance of the electric grid. Thus, the overarching goal of this project is to develop effective reduced/representative system models from data that make the computational complexity sufficiently manageable so as to be useful to simulate, analyze, and even control complex non-linear power systems dynamics with large penetrations of DERs. In order to achieve the objective, the project team established a four-fold technical approach 1) Formulated a combined transmission-distribution co-simulation framework for data generation and validation, 2) Derived reduced/representative models of power systems based on data-driven methods for efficient computation and appropriate representation of system behavior, 3) Developed data driven characterization of power system behavior based on transfer operator theory, machine learning and optimization for model estimation, 4) Incorporated a scalable data management and processing architecture using distributed Kafka streaming applications that coordinate input data streams to the developed data analytics. The key accomplishments of the project are: 1) Development of a scalable multi-timescale T&D co-simulation framework (both for steady state and for dynamic co-simulation) using commercial solvers (PSSE and GridLAB-D). The steady-state T&D co-simulation interface is shared with our industry partner (PJM). 2) A structured reduced order dynamic model of distribution systems that can represent partial motor stalling along with a systematic procedure to derive the model parameters. 3) A PMU based online method to monitor, localize and mitigate fault-induced delayed voltage recovery using DER reactive support and load control in distribution systems. 4) Development of linear operator based robust methodologies for dynamic state estimation, uncertainty quantification, system identification and trajectory prediction for power system dynamics. 5) An adaptive damping control for utilizing wind energy resources to provide oscillation damping and system stability. 6) Implementation of Kafka-based framework for efficient processing of streaming data using Linux-based local virtual environment.

DER integration↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comparative Analysis of HEATNETS for Geothermal Network Performance: Preprint

Thermal energy networks (TENs), also known as 5th generation district energy systems, or more specifically geothermal networks when exchanging heat with geothermal boreholes, are an important technology for decarbonization. In these networks an ambient loop connects buildings and thermal sources, such as a borehole field, to exchange energy and maintain a desired loop temperature. Water-source heat pumps are used at the buildings to connect to the ambient or thermal loop to meet to the building heating and cooling loads and maintain comfort. A semi-transient, reduced-order technical model and techno-economic model, called HEATNETS, has been developed at NREL that captures the flow of energy around a TEN. In this work, a comparison of the HEATNETS technical model and a well-known coding platform used for modeling geothermal networks, TRNSYS, has been completed for a proposed geothermal network as a verification process. Hourly data provided from the TRNSYS simulation included building loads, pumping power, heat pump power, temperature entering and leaving the borehole field, and mass flow rates. The hourly borehole temperatures were used to create a linear regression model utilized in HEATNETS to estimate the borehole field heat exchange. The building loads and mass flow rates were direct inputs to HEATNETS while the pumping power, heat pump power, borehole temperatures, and coefficients of performance were all simulated and calculated by HEATNETS, allowing for direct comparison of the thermal energy transfer, rather than also comparing control systems responses. HEATNETS considers the full process from design inputs to economic outputs and can provide modeling options for high-level initial system design and operational optimization. This study shows that HEATNETS, while not intended to replace other modeling tools, can be a unique modeling tool for the performance of a full geothermal network system.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comparative Analysis of HEATNETS for Geothermal Network Performance

Thermal energy networks (TENs), also known as 5th generation district energy systems, or more specifically geothermal networks when exchanging heat with geothermal boreholes, are an important technology for decarbonization. In these networks an ambient loop connects buildings and thermal sources, such as a borehole field, to exchange energy and maintain a desired loop temperature. Water-source heat pumps are used at the buildings to connect to the ambient or thermal loop to meet to the building heating and cooling loads and maintain comfort. A semi-transient, reduced-order technical model and techno-economic model, called HEATNETS, has been developed at NREL that captures the flow of energy around a TEN. In this work, a comparison of the HEATNETS technical model and a well-known coding platform used for modeling geothermal networks, TRNSYS, has been completed for a proposed geothermal network as a verification and validation process. Hourly data provided from the TRNSYS simulation included building loads, pumping power, heat pump power, temperature entering and leaving the borehole field, and mass flow rates. The hourly borehole temperatures were used to create a linear regression model utilized in HEATNETS to estimate the borehole field heat exchange. The building loads and mass flow rates were direct inputs to HEATNETS while the pumping power, heat pump power, borehole temperatures, and coefficients of performance were all simulated and calculated by HEATNETS, allowing for direct comparison of the thermal energy transfer HEATNETS considers the full process from design inputs to economic outputs and can provide modeling options for high-level initial system design and operational optimization. This study focuses on a validation of HEATNETS using results from TRNSYS. HEATNETS is not intended to replace other modeling tools, but this work demonstrates, via a comparison with an industry standard code, that HEATNETS can be a unique, high-level and rapid modeling tool for estimating the performance of a full geothermal network system.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Discrete element model for powder grain interactions under high compressive stress

A reduced order, nonlocal model is proposed for the contact force between initially spherical particles under compression. The model in effect provides the normal component of the interaction force between elements in the discrete element method (DEM). It is applicable to high relative density and large stress in powder compaction. It takes into account the mutual interaction between multiple points of contact, in contrast to the usual assumption in DEM of pair interactions. The mathematical form of the model is derived from a variational formulation that leads to the momentum balance for the forces on each grain. The model is calibrated mainly using detailed three dimensional peridynamic simulations of single grains under compressive loading by rigid plates that move radially with prescribed velocity. This calibration takes into account the large deformation and fracture of the grains. The interaction model also includes terms for the unloading behavior and adhesion. Finally, as validation, the model is applied to test data on the compaction of microcrystalline cellulose bulk powder.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗