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At least 559 records · Page 31

Using High Frequency Passive Microwave, A-train, and TRMM Data to Evaluate Hydrometer Structure in the NASA GEOS-5 Data Assimilation System

Validating water vapor and prognostic condensate in global models remains a challenging research task. Model parameterizations are still subject to a large number of tunable parameters; furthermore, accurate and representative in situ observations are very sparse, and satellite observations historically have significant quantitative uncertainties. Progress on improving cloud / hydrometeor fields in models stands to benefit greatly from the growing inventory ofA-Train data sets. ill the present study we are using a variety of complementary satellite retrievals of hydrometeors to examine condensate produced by the emerging NASA Modem Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, MERRA, and its associated atmospheric general circulation model GEOS5. Cloud and precipitation are generated by both grid-scale prognostic equations and by the Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert (RAS) diagnostic convective parameterization. The high frequency channels (89 to 183.3 GHz) from AMSU-B and MRS on NOAA polar orbiting satellites are being used to evaluate the climatology and variability of precipitating ice from tropical convective anvils. Vertical hydrometeor structure from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and CloudSat radars are used to develop statistics on vertical hydrometeor structure in order to better interpret the extensive high frequency passive microwave climatology. Cloud liquid and ice water path data retrieved from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, MODIS, are used to investigate relationships between upper level cloudiness and tropical deep convective anvils. Together these data are used to evaluate cloud / ice water path, gross aspects of vertical hydrometeor structure, and the relationship between cloud extent and surface precipitation that the MERRA reanalysis must capture.

Robertson, Franklin↗

Stratospheric Instrusion Catalog: A 10-Year Compilation of Events Identified by using TRACK with NASA's MERRA-2 Reanalysis

Stratospheric intrusions "the introduction of ozone-rich stratospheric air into the troposphere" have been linked with surface ozone air quality exceedances, especially at the high elevations in the western USA in springtime. However, the impact of stratospheric intrusions in the remaining seasons and over the rest of the USA is less clear. A new approach to the study of stratospheric intrusions uses NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS) model and assimilation products with an objective feature tracking algorithm to investigate the atmospheric dynamics that generate stratospheric intrusions and the different mechanisms through which stratospheric intrusions may influence tropospheric chemistry and surface air quality seasonally over both the western and the eastern USA. A catalog of stratospheric intrusions identified in the MERRA-2 reanalysis was produced for the period 2004-2015 and validated against surface ozone observations (focusing on those which exceed the national air quality standard) and a recent data set of stratospheric intrusion-influenced air quality exceedance flags from the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Considering not all ozone exceedances have been flagged by the EPA, a collection of stratospheric intrusions can support air quality agencies for more rapid identification of the impact of stratospheric air on surface ozone and demonstrates that future operational analyses may aid in forecasting such events. An analysis of the spatiotemporal variability of stratospheric intrusions over the continental US was performed, and while the spring over the western USA does exhibit the largest number of stratospheric intrusions affecting the lower troposphere, the number of intrusions in the remaining seasons and over the eastern USA is sizable. By focusing on the major modes of variability that influence weather in the USA, such as the Pacific North American (PNA) teleconnection index, predicative meteorological patterns associated with stratospheric intrusions and their regional effects on tropospheric ozone were identified. Improved understanding of the connections between large-scale climate variability and local-scale dynamically-driven air quality events may support improved seasonal prediction of such events.

PN↗

Assimilation of Satellite Soil Moisture for Improved Atmospheric Reanalyses

A newly developed, weakly coupled land and atmosphere data assimilation system for NASA’s Global Earth Observing System model is presented, and used to demonstrate the benefit of assimilating satellite soil moisture into an atmospheric reanalysis. Specifically, Advanced Scatterometer and Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity soil moisture retrievals are assimilated into a system that uses the same model, atmospheric assimilation system, and atmospheric observations as the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2). The atmosphere is sensitive to soil moisture only under certain conditions. Hence, while the globally averaged model improvements were small, regionally, the soil moisture assimilation induced some substantial improvements. For example, in a large region spanning from western Europe across southern Russia, the soil moisture assimilation decreased the RMSE against independent station observations of daily maximum 2-m temperature (T(sup 2m, sub max)) by up to 0.4 K, and of 2-m specific humidity (q(exp 2m)) by up to 0.5 g/kg. Over all available stations, the mean T(sup 2m, sub max) RMSE was reduced from 2.82 to 2.79 K, while the mean q(exp 2m) RMSE was reduced from 1.25 to 1.20 g/kg. The soil moisture assimilation also reduced the mean RMSE across 29 flux tower sites from 34.2 to 32.6 Wm(exp −2) for latent heating, and from 37.7 to 36.5 Wm(exp −2) for sensible heating. For all variables evaluated, the soil moisture assimilation improved the model at monthly to seasonal, rather than daily, time scales. Based on the above experiments, it is recommended that satellite soil moisture be assimilated into future reanalyses, including the follow-on to MERRA-2.

Clara Draper↗

Petermann Glacier on the Brink: Progress, Challenges and Insights

Petermann Glacier, the largest marine-terminating glacier in northern Greenland based on catchment area and ice discharge, plays a key role in regulating ice discharge from the Greenland Ice Sheet into the Arctic Ocean. With an upstream catchment connected to the ice sheet interior via a deep subglacial canyon, its future stability has major implications for sea level rise. In this review, we synthesize recent advances in understanding Petermann’s dynamics across three critical interfaces: the ice–ocean, ice–atmosphere, and ice–bed boundaries. At the surface, observations show that reanalysis products underestimate air temperatures and melt, while regional climate models diverge significantly in their estimates of surface mass balance, underscoring the need for improved in situ data and models. At the ocean boundary, enhanced basal melting driven by both subglacial runoff and Atlantic water intrusions is identified as the dominant driver of recent mass loss of Petermann Glacier, with continued warming posing a serious threat to the stability of the floating tongue. At the bed, new geophysical synthesis reveals complex geology, likely spatial variability in geothermal heat flux, and the influence of the megacanyon on seasonal hydrology and velocity fluctuations. Petermann’s mass balance has been negative in recent decades without corresponding flow acceleration. However, the glacier has undergone significant calving events, and the current rifting that began in September 2025 highlights its vulnerability. This upcoming calving event underscores the timeliness of this review, as it will put Petermann Glacier’s terminus at its most retreated position since records began in 1923. The anticipated retreat of the ice tongue also reduces buttressing and brings the terminus closer to the grounding zone, and modeling studies suggest that calving within 12 km of the grounding zone could potentially trigger dynamic retreat, accelerating ice discharge, and a doubling of flow speeds. We conclude that improved observations, sustained monitoring of oceanographic and atmospheric properties, and high-resolution modeling are critical to constraining projections of Petermann Glacier’s future and its role in the stability of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

Dominik Fahrner↗

I/O Parallelization for the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS)

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Data Assimilation Office (DAO) at the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) has developed the GEOS DAS, a data assimilation system that provides production support for NASA missions and will support NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) in the coming years. The DAO's support of the EOS project along with the requirement of producing long-term reanalysis datasets with an unvarying system levy a large I/O burden on the future system. The DAO has been involved in prototyping parallel implementations of the GEOS DAS for a number of years and is now converting the production version from shared-memory parallelism to distributed-memory parallelism using the portable Message-Passing Interface (MPI). If the MPI-based GEOS DAS is to meet these production requirements, we must make I/O from the parallel system efficient. We have designed a scheme that allows efficient I/O processing while retaining portability, reducing the need for post-processing, and producing data formats that are required by our users, both internal and external. The first phase of the GEOS DAS Parallel I/O System (GPIOS) will expand upon the common method of gathering global data to a Single PE for output. Instead of using a PE also tasked with primary computation, a number of PEs will be dedicated to I/O and its related tasks. This allows the data transformations and formatting required prior to output to take place asynchronously with respect to the GEOS DAS assimilation cycle, improving performance and generating output data sets in a format convenient for our users. I/O PEs can be added as needed to handle larger data volumes or to meet user file specifications. We will show I/O performance results from a prototype MPI GCM integrated with GPIOS. Phase two of GPIOS development will examine ways of integrating new software technologies to further improve performance and build scalability into the system. The maturing of MPI-IO implementations and other supporting libraries such as parallel HDF should provide performance gains while retaining portability.

Lucchesi, R.↗

A Synopsis of AIRS Global-Mean Clear-Sky Radiance Trends From 2003 to 2020

Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) aboard the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Aqua satellite has been operating since September 2002. Its information content, superb instrument performance, and dense sampling pattern make the AIRS radiances an invaluable data set for climate studies. The trends of global-mean, nadir-view, clear-sky AIRS radiances from 2003 to 2020 are studied here, together with the counterparts of synthetic radiances based on two reanalyzes, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis V5 (ECMWF ERA5) and NASA Goddard Earth Observing System V5.4.1 (GEOS-5.4.1; a reanalysis product without assimilation of hyperspectral radiances such as AIRS). The AIRS observation shows statistically significant negative trends in most of its CO2 channels, positive but non-significant trends in the channels over the window regions, and statistically significant positive trends in some of its H2O channels. The best agreements between observed and simulated radiance trends are seen over the CO2 tropospheric channels, while the observed and simulated trends over the CO2 stratospheric channels are opposite. ERA5 results largely agree with the AIRS observation over the H2O channels. The comparison in the H2O channels helps reveal a data continuity issue in the GEOS-5.4.1. Contributions from individual variables to the radiance trends are also assessed by performing separate simulations. This study provides the first synopsis of the global-mean trend of AIRS radiances over all its thermal-IR channels.

CO2↗

Impact of the Assimilation of Hyperspectral Infrared Profiles on Advanced Weather and Research Model Simulations of a Non-Convective Wind Event

Non-convective wind events commonly occur with passing extratropical cyclones and have significant societal and economic impacts. Since non-convective winds often occur in the absence of specific phenomena such as a thunderstorm, tornado, or hurricane, the public are less likely to heed high wind warnings and continue daily activities. Thus non-convective wind events result in as many fatalities as straight line thunderstorm winds. One physical explanation for non-convective winds includes tropopause folds. Improved model representation of stratospheric air and associated non-convective wind events could improve non-convective wind forecasts and associated warnings. In recent years, satellite data assimilation has improved skill in forecasting extratropical cyclones; however errors still remain in forecasting the position and strength of extratropical cyclones as well as the tropopause folding process. The goal of this study is to determine the impact of assimilating satellite temperature and moisture retrieved profiles from hyperspectral infrared (IR) sounders (i.e. Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), Cross-track Infrared and Microwave Sounding Suite (CrIMSS), and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI)) on the model representation of the tropopause fold and an associated high wind event that impacted the Northeast United States on 09 February 2013. Model simulations using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model (ARW) were conducted on a 12-km grid with cycled data assimilation mimicking the operational North American Model (NAM). The results from the satellite assimilation run are compared to a control experiment (without hyperspectral IR retrievals), North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) reanalysis, and Rapid Refresh analyses.

Berndt, Emily B.↗

Stratospheric Circulation Changes Associated with the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Eruption

The 15 January 2022 eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai underwater volcano injected an unprecedented amount of water directly into the stratosphere. This study attempts to quantify this impact on the temperature, as well as the subsequent changes to the stratospheric circulation, during the months following the eruption based on reanalysis fields. The extreme nature of the temperature, wind, and circulation changes are tracked through comparisons of the months of 2022 with the past 42 years. Examination of the data assimilation process shows that at 20 hPa the data is forcing temperature cooling at record rates resulting in record cold temperatures. Details of the stratospheric perturbations in latitude and pressure are presented for June 2022 where record strong cooling is found at 20 hPa from 60oS to 30oS. In response to the cooling the atmosphere adjusts by creating record strong winds above the temperature anomaly and large changes to the downward and poleward mean meridional circulation.

Lawrence Coy↗

Clifford Neural Operators on Atmospheric Data Influenced Partial Differential Equations

Mathematical representations of the atmosphere are key to forecasting and research tasks across Earth science. Numerically solving the underlying partial differential equations(PDEs) of the atmosphere, however, can be difficult and computationally expensive with numerous trade-offs between computing efficiency and accuracy. Utilizing neural net-works to learn approximations of the PDE solutions from the data can help us model complex phenomena more efficiently than traditional numerical schemes. Here, we have applied Clifford algebra-based neural operators for predicting atmospheric variables. Clifford Fourier neural operators are used with two different backbone architectures, ResNet and UNet, on custom data of U10, V10 and surface pressure as well as U500, V500 and Z500. Clifford Fourier neural operators, coupled with ResNet and UNet architectures, are applied to a key reanalysis dataset. Model performance is initially strong, but we observe increasing errors, resulting in the model becoming highly unstable.

Sujit Roy↗

Reanalysis of Fly's Eye GLM Simulator (FEGS) Optical Pulse Detections from the 2017 GOES-R Post Launch Test (GOES-R PLT) Field Campaign

In 2017, the GOES-R PLT field campaign was conducted to validate new instruments on board GOES-16, including the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM). A NASA ER-2 high altitude aircraft was equipped with a sensor suite including FEGS and an electric field change meter (EFCM) for complementary observations of lightning. As part of a modern reanalysis, we plan to combine aircraft and ground observations from the lightning instrumentation and polarimetric Doppler radars for a more complete characterization of optical lightning measurements in the context of convective properties. This presentation focuses on our initial efforts which include a reanalysis of the FEGS multi-spectral optical waveforms using an updated pulse detection algorithm and a comparison of detected pulses with coincident EFCM and Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) data. We will present on characteristics of discharge processes including leaders, strokes, and continuing current signatures as observed by the suite of aircraft and ground-based lightning instrumentation.

T Daniel Walker↗

Diagnostic Studies with GLA Fields

Assessments of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System-1 Data Assimilation System(GEOS-1 DAS), regarding heating rates, energetics, and angular momentum quantities were made. These diagnostics can be viewed as measures of climate variability. Comparisons with the NOAA/NCEP reanalysis system of momentum and energetics diagnostics are included. Water vapor and angular momentum are diagnosed in many models, including those of NASA, as part of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project. 'Me GEOS-I and NOAA/NCEP global atmospheric angular momentum values are coherent on time scales down to about three days. Furthermore, they agree with the series of Earth angular momentum, as measured by tiny fluctuations in the rotation rate of the Earth, as variations in the length of day. The torques that effect such changes in atmospheric and Earth momentum are dominated by the influence of particular mountain systems, including the Rockies, Himalayas, and Andes, upon mountain torques on time scales shorter than about two weeks. Other project areas included collaboration with Goddard Space Flight Center to examine the impact of mountainous areas and the treatments of parameterizations on diagnoses of the atmosphere. Relevant preprints are included herein.

Salstein, David A.↗

Diagnostic Studies With GLA Fields

Assessments of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System-1 Data Assimilation System (GEOS-1 DAS) regarding heating rates, energetics and angular momentum quantities were made. These diagnostics can be viewed as measures of climate variability. Comparisons with the NOAA/NCEP reanalysis system of momentum and energetics diagnostics are included. Water vapor and angular momentum are diagnosed in many models, including those of NASA, as part of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project. Relevant preprints are included herein.

Salstein, David A.↗

Global Energy and Water Budgets in MERRA

Reanalyses, retrospectively analyzing observations over climatological time scales, represent a merger between satellite observations and models to provide globally continuous data and have improved over several generations. Balancing the Earth s global water and energy budgets has been a focus of research for more than two decades. Models tend to their own climate while remotely sensed observations have had varying degrees of uncertainty. This study evaluates the latest NASA reanalysis, called the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), from a global water and energy cycles perspective. MERRA was configured to provide complete budgets in its output diagnostics, including the Incremental Analysis Update (IAU), the term that represents the observations influence on the analyzed states, alongside the physical flux terms. Precipitation in reanalyses is typically sensitive to the observational analysis. For MERRA, the global mean precipitation bias and spatial variability are more comparable to merged satellite observations (GPCP and CMAP) than previous generations of reanalyses. Ocean evaporation also has a much lower value which is comparable to observed data sets. The global energy budget shows that MERRA cloud effects may be generally weak, leading to excess shortwave radiation reaching the ocean surface. Evaluating the MERRA time series of budget terms, a significant change occurs, which does not appear to be represented in observations. In 1999, the global analysis increments of water vapor changes sign from negative to positive, and primarily lead to more oceanic precipitation. This change is coincident with the beginning of AMSU radiance assimilation. Previous and current reanalyses all exhibit some sensitivity to perturbations in the observation record, and this remains a significant research topic for reanalysis development. The effect of the changing observing system is evaluated for MERRA water and energy budget terms.

Bosilovich, Michael G.↗

The NOAA-NASA CZCS Reanalysis Effort

Satellite observations of global ocean chlorophyll span over two decades. However, incompatibilities between processing algorithms prevent us from quantifying natural variability. We applied a comprehensive reanalysis to the Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) archive, called the NOAA-NASA CZCS Reanalysis (NCR) Effort. NCR consisted of 1) algorithm improvement (AI), where CZCS processing algorithms were improved using modernized atmospheric correction and bio-optical algorithms, and 2) blending, where in situ data were incorporated into the CZCS AI to minimize residual errors. The results indicated major improvement over the previously available CZCS archive. Global spatial and seasonal patterns of NCR chlorophyll indicated remarkable correspondence with modern sensors, suggesting compatibility. The NCR permits quantitative analyses of interannual and interdecadal trends in global ocean chlorophyll.

Gregg, Watson W.↗

Impact of the Assimilation of Hyperspectral Infrared Retrieved Profiles on Advanced Weather and Research Model Simulations of a Non-Convective Wind Event

Non-convective wind events commonly occur with passing extratropical cyclones and have significant societal and economic impacts. Since non-convective winds often occur in the absence of specific phenomena such as a thunderstorm, tornado, or hurricane, the public are less likely to heed high wind warnings and continue daily activities. Thus non-convective wind events result in as many fatalities as straight line thunderstorm winds. One physical explanation for non-convective winds includes tropopause folds. Improved model representation of stratospheric air and associated non-convective wind events could improve non-convective wind forecasts and associated warnings. In recent years, satellite data assimilation has improved skill in forecasting extratropical cyclones; however errors still remain in forecasting the position and strength of extratropical cyclones as well as the tropopause folding process. The goal of this study is to determine the impact of assimilating satellite temperature and moisture retrieved profiles from hyperspectral infrared (IR) sounders (i.e. Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), Cross-track Infrared and Microwave Sounding Suite (CrIMSS), and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI)) on the model representation of the tropopause fold and an associated high wind event that impacted the Northeast United States on 09 February 2013. Model simulations using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model (ARW) were conducted on a 12-km grid with cycled data assimilation mimicking the operational North American Model (NAM). The results from the satellite assimilation run are compared to a control experiment (without hyperspectral IR retrievals), 32-km North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) interpolated to a 12-km grid, and 13-km Rapid Refresh analyses.

Berndt, E. B.↗

Reanalysis of the Stratosphere in GEOS-5: Lessons Learned from MERRA and Future Prospects

The MERRA configuration of GEOS-5 includes about 30 layers in the middle atmosphere, with an upper boundary near 80km. Stratospheric Sounding Unit (SSU) and Advanced microwave sounding unit ( AMSU) radiance data are assimilated, which yield good constraints on the analyses up to the upper stratosphere. This paper examines the performance of MERRA, with foci on: the somewhat erratic system behavior in the 1980s, as numerous SSU instruments were available for short periods; the transition from SSU to AMSU radiances; conflicts between equivalent instruments on different platforms, given in the context of bias correction and the diurnal cycle; and, the relative stability of the analyses in the 21st Century. The results from MERRA provide guidance for how to use the operational polar-orbiting datasets in future reanalyses. Additional discussion will be directed at the possible use of research data sets, from limb-sounding instruments, in future multi-decadal products.

Pawson, Steven↗

Variability of Winter Air Temperature in Mid-Latitude Europe

The aim of this paper is to report extreme winter/early-spring air temperature (hereinafter temperature) anomalies in mid-latitude Europe, and to discuss the underlying forcing to these interannual fluctuations. Warm advection from the North Atlantic in late winter controls the surface-air temperature, as indicated by the substantial correlation between the speed of the surface southwesterlies over the eastern North Atlantic (quantified by a specific Index Ina) and the 2-meter level air temperatures (hereinafter Ts) over Europe, 45-60 deg N, in winter. In mid-March and subsequently, the correlation drops drastically (quite often it is negative). This change in the relationship between Ts and Ina marks a transition in the control of the surface-air temperature: absorption of insolation replaces the warm advection as the dominant control. This forcing by maritime-air advection in winter was demonstrated in a previous publication, and is re-examined here in conjunction with extreme fluctuations of temperatures in Europe. We analyze here the interannual variability at its extreme by comparing warm-winter/early-spring of 1989/90 with the opposite scenario in 1995/96. For these two December-to-March periods the differences in the monthly mean temperature in Warsaw and Torun, Poland, range above 10 C. Short-term (shorter than a month) fluctuations of the temperature are likewise very strong. We conduct pentad-by-pentad analysis of the surface-maximum air temperature (hereinafter Tmax), in a selected location, examining the dependence on Ina. The increased cloudiness and higher amounts of total precipitable water, corollary effects to the warm low-level advection. in the 1989/90 winter, enhance the positive temperature anomalies. The analysis of the ocean surface winds is based on the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) dataset; ascent rates, and over land wind data are from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF); maps of 2-m temperature, cloud cover and precipitable water are from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis.

Otterman, J.↗

On the Global Transport of Moisture: Comparison of Different Estimators

An intercomparison is made between vertically integrated water vapor flux estimates from the NASA reanalysis product, and from two versions of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced only by observed sea surface temperature (SST). The period of comparison was from March 1985-February 1991 plus data from the U.S. flood in 1993.

global hydrology hydrology hydrological cycle wate↗