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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 559 records · Page 31
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Data-Driven Digital Twin for Reliability Assessment of DC/DC Buck Converter

In commercial applications, the operation of DC/DC converters significantly impacts overall system performance and long-term reliability. This study introduces a data-driven digital twin (DT) approach for estimating critical degradation parameters of DC/DC BUCK converter under steady-state condition. Initially, a circuit-level MATLAB/Simulink digital model (DM C ) is refined against a hardware prototype’s switching model dataset using offline particle swarm optimization. The optimized digital model’s steady-state response is then verified with its average model response while varying the duty and load. Subsequently, degradation profiles are imposed on the inductor, capacitor, MOSFET in the DMC. A large dataset is generated from this model, allowing training, validation, and testing of machine learning (ML) models for component health regression tasks. The proposed method employs random forest ML models, achieving impressive regression results with a squared R value as high as 0.99978 and a root mean square error of 4.2× 10 –6 . The method is further validated on a medium power level DC/DC BUCK prototype with varying load conditions, and includes the analysis of MOSFET’s on-resistance under degradation conditions. This data-driven DT method shows promise for identifying parasitic degradation and ohmic loss parameters, enhancing converter reliability assessments in a non-invasive, generalized, and computationally efficient manner.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Machine Learning-Based Method to Estimate Transformer Primary-Side Voltages with Limited Customer-Side AMI Measurements

Distribution control applications such as volt/var optimization, network reconfiguration, and distribution automation require accurate knowledge of the distribution system state. The lack of sufficient sensors on the primary side of distribution networks often limits the accuracy of the control decisions by these applications. The deployment of advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) provides utilities an opportunity to translate the AMI data on the secondary onto the primary so that it can be used as pseudo-measurements to augment the limited existing measurements on the primary. This paper develops a machine learning based approach for estimating service transformer primary-side voltages by using limited secondary-side AMI measurement. The machine learning model is developed by using random forest algorithm. The estimated primary-side voltages can be used by utilities as pseudo-measurements for distribution control applications. The detailed secondary model topology, which is an essential input data for many existing algorithms, is not required for the proposed method. The performance of the proposed method is validated by using AMI measurements from the field and an actual distribution feeder model of San Diego Gas & Electric Company.

advanced metering infrastructure↗
DOE OSTI2023

ML-Based Power System Stability Assessment Considering Network Topology Changes: WECC 20,000+ Bus System Case Study

Modern power grids are fast-changing and thus require real-time monitoring and online stability assessment. With the rapid development of machine learning (ML) techniques, using data-driven models to provide fast and accurate estimations of power system stability marginal information, such as frequency nadir for frequency stability and critical clearing time (CCT) for transient stability, have become possible. However, despite the numerous research on ML-based methods for frequency nadir and CCT prediction, there is limited work on the impact of different network topology changes. Furthermore, most previous studies only focused on small or synthetic systems, and there is a lack of research on actual large power system models. In this paper, the above issues are addressed by studying the actual U.S. Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) system model with more than 20,000 buses. Massive simulations are conducted in PowerWorld Simulator to study the impact of various topology change scenarios on both frequency stability and transient stability. System operating information is extracted from the success dispatch cases of various network topologies to generate a comprehensive dataset for ML-based models. Two ML methods, random forest (RF) and multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network, are trained and tested for both frequency nadir prediction and CCT prediction. Test results have proven the models are capable of online stability assessment for large power networks such as the WECC system with sufficient accuracy.

critical clearing time↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing Machine Learning as a Tool to Explain Variance in Deployed Photovoltaic (PV) System Degradation

Degradation remains a large uncertainty in forecasting production for PV plants, creating significant risk for developers and financiers. This study aims to quantify the distribution and drivers of degradation across 10,000 PV systems deployed for distributed or utility generation by training a machine learning model to predict year-over-year degradation rates from metadata characteristics. A combination of K-Means clustering and random forest regressor were found to associate multiple metadata features as potential drivers of degradation, including module characteristics, system design, and climate features. From this, it is inferred that if machine learning is able to find complex patterns between metadata features and system performance loss, such methods can be employed to help developers and financiers make data-informed decisions when estimating long-term energy production forecasts in financial models.

Dunn, Jimmy C.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Estimating Subhourly Inverter Clipping Loss From Satellite-Derived Irradiance Data

Photovoltaic system production simulations are conventionally run using hourly weather datasets. Hourly simulations are sufficiently accurate to predict the majority of long-term system behavior but cannot resolve high-frequency effects like inverter clipping caused by short-duration irradiance variability. Direct modeling of this subhourly clipping error is only possible for the few locations with high-resolution irradiance datasets. This paper describes a method of predicting the magnitude of this error using a machine learning regressor ensemble model, comprised of a random forest and an XGBoost model, and 30-minute satellite irradiance data. The method predicts a correction for each 30-minute interval with the potential to roll up into 60-minute corrections to match an hourly energy model. The model is trained and validated at locations where the error can be directly simulated from 1-minute ground data. The validation shows low bias at most ground station locations. The model is also applied to gridded satellite irradiance to produce a heatmap of the estimated clipping error across the United States. Finally, the relative importance of each predictor satellite variable is retrieved from the model and discussed.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Six Machine-Learning Methods for Predicting Hospital-Stay Duration for Patients with Sepsis: A Comparative Study

Sepsis is a life-threatening medical condition that, if not treated promptly, can result in tissue damage, organ failure, and death. According to the Centers for Disease Control, about 270,000 individuals die of sepsis in the US each year. Further, sepsis expenditures accounted for 13% of total US hospital costs in 2013, totaling more than $24 billion. Our project objectives were to determine if Machine Learning algorithms could reliably predict hospital stay duration for patients with sepsis. The data set we used has been de-identified and is freely available through the BupaR package. The data includes 1050 cases, 15214 events, and 16 types of actions related to sepsis patient care. First, we used process mining to determine how long each patient was in the hospital. Using BupaR’s functions, we created several process model graphs. These process models depict the movement of patients at a hospital and provide duration data for each patent case. Second, we identified outlier data and created two dataset versions: one with and one without outliers. We then applied the following analysis methods: Linear Regression, Random Forest, K-Nearest Neighbors, Neural Networks, XGBoost, and lightGBM. We compared the model validations for the six machine learning models using the same data-splitting method. We found that the XGBoost model had the best prediction accuracy of 73.9 percent for cases with outliers, and 79 percent for cases without outliers. We also found that the lightGBM model had the lowest mean absolute error between prediction and actual duration in days with 3.66 days for the case with outliers, and 2.4 days for the case without outliers. These two models outperformed the other four models. This work will be enhanced in the future by exploring new prediction algorithms and comparing them with the results of this study.

Chen, Lingtao↗
DOE OSTI2024

Newton-Raphson AC Power Flow Convergence Based on Deep Learning Initialization and Homotopy Continuation

Power flow forms the basis of many power system studies. With the increased penetration of renewable energy, grid planners tend to perform multiple power flow simulations under various operating conditions and not just selected snapshots at peak or light load conditions. Getting a converged AC power flow (ACPF) case remains a significant challenge for grid planners especially in large power grid networks. This paper proposes a two-stage approach to improve Newton-Raphson ACPF convergence and was applied to a 6102 bus Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) system. The first stage utilizes a deep learning-based initializer with data re-training. Here a deep neural network (DNN) initializer is developed to provide better initial voltage magnitude and angle guesses to aid in power flow convergence. This is because Newton-Raphson ACPF is quite sensitive to the initial conditions and bad initialization could lead to divergence. The DNN initializer includes a data re-training framework that improves the initializer's performance when faced with limited training data. The DNN initializer successfully solved 3,285 cases out of 3,899 non-converging dispatch and performed better than random forest and DC power flow initialization methods. ACPF cases not solved in this first stage are then passed through a hot-starting algorithm based on homotopy continuation with switched shunt control. The hot-starting algorithm successfully converged 416 cases out of the remaining 614 non-converging ACPF dispatch. In conclusion, the combined two-stage approach achieved a 94.9% success rate, by converging a total of 3,701 cases out of the initial 3,899 unsolved cases.

Deep learning↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning-Driven Reliability Estimation of PV Inverters Considering Alert-Ambient Variability

Weather-induced spatio-temporal degradation limits outdoor PV inverter lifetime and reliability, necessitating advanced data analysis. This study employs a top-down, data-driven approach utilizing multiple machine learning (ML) algorithms to estimate inverter reliability in a 1.4 MW PV power plant, considering factors such as irradiance, humidity, temperature, time of day, and weather conditions. An extensive alert dataset from 17 identical inverters, including alert types, propagation, and frequency, reveals significant correlations with environmental factors and inverter output power, enabling the construction of a performance reliability model. Dual-stage supervised-ML models are evaluated for accuracy, with the ‘classification-regression’ model by an artificial neural network (ANN) tested on the averaged “Alert-Ambient” dataset, which is outperformed by ‘clustering-regression’ models using random forest (RF) and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) on individual inverter datasets. K-means clustering applies principal component analysis to reduce dimensions, achieving improved accuracy beyond the 80% achieved by ANN on the averaged dataset. Second-stage regression estimates inverter reliability with a mean square error of 0.0195 on the averaged dataset and as low as 0.002 on individual inverter datasets using RF. Furthermore, these findings highlight the method's suitability for estimating PV inverter output reliability under ambient conditions, essential for digital twin development and related applications.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Identifying Entangled Physics Relationships Through Sparse Matrix Decomposition to Inform Plasma Fusion Design

We report a sustainable burn platform through inertial confinement fusion (ICF) has been an ongoing challenge for over 50 years. Mitigating engineering limitations and improving the current design involves an understanding of the complex coupling of physical processes. While sophisticated simulation codes are used to model ICF implosions, these tools contain necessary numerical approximation but miss physical processes that limit predictive capability. Identification of relationships between controllable design inputs to ICF experiments and measurable outcomes (e.g., neutron yield, neutron velocity, areal density) from performed experiments can help guide the future design of experiments and development of simulation codes, to potentially improve the accuracy of the computational models used to simulate ICF experiments. We use sparse matrix decomposition methods to identify clusters of a few related design variables. Sparse principal component analysis (SPCA) identifies groupings that are related to the physical origin of the variables (laser, hohlraum, and capsule). A variable importance analysis finds that in addition to variables highly correlated with neutron yield, such as picket power and laser energy, variables that represent a dramatic change of the ICF design, such as number of pulse steps, are also very important. The obtained sparse components are then used to train a random forest (RF) regression surrogate for predicting total yield. The RF performance on the training and testing data compares with the performance of the RF trained using all the design variables considered. This work is intended to inform design changes in future ICF experiments by augmenting the expert intuition and simulation results.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Machine Learning-based Reliability Evaluation Model for Integrated Power-Gas Systems

This article proposes a hybrid machine learning method for the reliability evaluation of integrated power-gas systems (IPGS) under the uncertain component failure probability distributions. The Random Forest (RF) method is designed to select important features to solve the insufficient quantity of data and the curse of dimensionality problems. The Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) regression algorithm is developed to quantify the relationship between the uncertain parameters and reliability metrics. Moreover, a ten-fold cross-validation method is employed to further improve the accuracy of the regression model. Simulation results on three test systems show that the proposed method can achieve high accuracy for the reliability evaluation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Source Authentication of Distribution Synchrophasors for Cybersecurity of Microgrids

This letter proposes a hybrid approach combining Self-Adaptive Mathematical Morphology (SAMM) and Time-Frequency (TF) techniques to authenticate the source information of Distribution Synchrophasors (DS) within near-range locations. The SAMM can adaptively regulate the synchrophasors variations which are representatives of local environmental characteristics. Subsequently, TF mapping is employed to extract informative signatures from the regulated synchrophasors variation. Finally, Random Forest Classification (RFC) is used to correlate the extracted signatures with the source information based on the derived TF mapping. Experiment results using DS collected at multiple small geographical scales validated the proposed methodology.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Differentiation strategies of soil rare and abundant microbial taxa in response to changing climatic regimes

Despite the important roles of soil microbes, especially the most diverse rare taxa in maintaining community diversity and multifunctionality, how different climate regimes alter the stability and functions of the rare microbial biosphere remains unknown. We reciprocally transplanted field soils across a latitudinal gradient to simulate climate change and sampled the soils annually after harvesting the maize over the following 6 years (from 2005 to 2011). By sequencing microbial 16S ribosomal RNA gene amplicons, we found that changing climate regimes significantly altered the composition and dynamics of soil microbial communities. A continuous succession of the rare and abundant communities was observed. Rare microbial communities were more stable under changing climatic regimes, with lower variations in temporal dynamics, and higher stability and constancy of diversity. More nitrogen cycling genes were detected in the rare members than in the abundant members, including amoA, napA, nifH, nirK, nirS, norB and nrfA. Random forest analysis and receiver operating characteristics analysis showed that rare taxa may act as potential contributors to maize yield under changing climatics. The study indicates that the taxonomically and functionally diverse rare biosphere has the potential to increase functional redundancy and enhance the ability of soil communities to counteract environmental disturbances. With ongoing global climate change, exploring the succession process and functional changes of rare taxa may be important in elucidating the ecosystem stability and multifunctionality that are mediated by microbial communities.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Surface temperatures reveal the patterns of vegetation water stress and their environmental drivers across the tropical Americas

Vegetation is a key component in the global carbon cycle as it stores ~450 GtC as biomass, and removes about a third of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. However, in some regions, the rate of plant carbon uptake is beginning to slow, largely because of water stress. Here, we develop a new observation-based methodology to diagnose vegetation water stress and link it to environmental drivers. We used the ratio of remotely sensed land surface to near surface atmospheric temperatures (LST/Tair) to represent vegetation water stress, and built regression tree models (random forests) to assess the relationship between LST/Tair and the main environmental drivers of surface energy fluxes in the tropical Americas. We further determined ecosystem traits associated with water stress and surface energy partitioning, pinpointed critical thresholds for water stress, and quantified changes in ecosystem carbon uptake associated with crossing these critical thresholds. Additionally, we found that the top drivers of LST/Tair, explaining over a quarter of its local variability in the study region, are (1) radiation, in 58% of the study region; (2) water supply from precipitation, in 30% of the study region; and (3) atmospheric water demand from vapor pressure deficits (VPD), in 22% of the study region. Regions in which LST/Tair variation is driven by radiation are located in regions of high aboveground biomass or at high elevations, while regions in which LST/Tair is driven by water supply from precipitation or atmospheric demand tend to have low species richness. Carbon uptake by photosynthesis can be reduced by up to 80% in water-limited regions when critical thresholds for precipitation and air dryness are exceeded simultaneously, that is, as compound events. Our results demonstrate that vegetation structure and diversity can be important for regulating surface energy and carbon fluxes over tropical regions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Switchgrass Steroidal Saponins Reduce Fungal Disease but Decrease Yeast Fermentation Yield

Increasing the production of bioproducts from lignocellulosic feedstocks requires improvement in both field production and biorefinery efficiency. When plant traits arise that improve field production but decrease biofuel yield, these trade-offs can represent challenges in the entire production process. To examine trade-offs between field and production traits, we examined factors underlying switchgrass resistance to fungal rust pathogens in field conditions and factors that impede yeast fermentation in the lab using repeated measurements on a switchgrass genetic diversity panel. We found that the same switchgrass genotypes that showed high fungal pathogen resistance also showed recalcitrance to yeast fermentation. These switchgrass genotypes were mostly from the Atlantic genetic group, which had high levels of specialized metabolites of the saponin class. Among 1589 metabolites identified through metabolomics, we found that saponins were among the most likely to explain variation in both rust infection and fermentation yield using random forest feature selection, and that only four of these were sufficient to explain 57.9% of the variation in rust susceptibility. Through follow-up testing in recalcitrant biomass, we found that the bacterium Zymomonas mobilis does not suffer the same inhibition as the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae, and that the addition of ergosterol (thought to be the fungal cellular target of saponin inhibition) rescues yeast fermentation. Several lines of evidence point to a central role for saponins as key metabolites protecting switchgrass from fungal pathogens and interfering with yeast fermentation, underscoring an ongoing need for collaboration between plant breeders and biofuel production scientists.

VanWallendael, Acer [North Carolina State Universi↗
DOE OSTI2020

Automating the interpretation of PM 2.5 time–resolved measurements using a data–driven approach

The rapid development of automated measurement equipment enables researchers to collect greater quantities of time-resolved data from indoor and outdoor environments. While significant, the interpretation of the resulting data can be a time-consuming effort. This paper introduces an automated process of interpreting PM 2.5 time-resolved data and differentiating PM 2.5 emissions resulting from indoor and outdoor sources. Here, we use Random Forest (RF), a machine learning approach, to study a dataset of 836 indoor emission events that occurred over a 2-week period in 18 apartments in California. In this paper, we show model development and evaluate its performance as the sample size and source vary. We discuss the characteristics of the dataset that tended to help the source identification and why. For example, we show that data from many events and from different apartments are essential for the model to be suitable for analyzing a new separate dataset. We also show that longitudinal data appear to be more helpful than the time frequency of measurements within a given apartment. We use the resulting RF model to analyze PM 2.5 data of an entirely separate dataset collected from 65 new homes in California. The RF model identifies 442 indoor emission events, with only a few misidentifications.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of GlassNet for physics-informed machine learning of glass stability and glass-forming ability

Glassy materials form the basis of many modern applications, including nuclear waste immobilization, touch-screen displays, and optical fibers, and also hold great potential for future medical and environmental applications. However, their structural complexity and large composition space make design and optimization challenging for certain applications. Of particular importance for glass processing and design is an estimate of a given composition's glass-forming ability (GFA). However, there remain many open questions regarding the underlying physical mechanisms of glass formation, especially in oxide glasses. It is apparent that a proxy for GFA would be highly useful in glass processing and design, but identifying such a surrogate property has proven itself to be difficult. While glass stability (GS) parameters have historically been used as a GFA surrogate, recent research has demonstrated that most of these parameters are not accurate predictors of the GFA of oxide glasses. Here, in this work, we explore the application of an open-source pre-trained neural network model, GlassNet, that can predict the characteristic temperatures necessary to compute GS with reasonable performance and assess the feasibility of using these physics-informed machine learning (PIML)-predicted GS parameters to estimate GFA. In doing so, we track the uncertainties at each step of the computation—from the original ML prediction errors to the compounding of errors during GS estimation, and finally to the final estimation of GFA. While GlassNet exhibits reasonable accuracy on all individual properties, we observe a large compounding of error in the combination of these individual predictions for the PIML prediction of GS, finding that random forest models offer similar accuracy to GlassNet. We also break down the performance of GlassNet on different glass families and find that the error in GS prediction is correlated with the error in crystallization peak temperature prediction. Lastly, we utilize this finding to assess the relationship between top-performing GS parameters and GFA for two ternary glass systems: sodium borosilicate and sodium iron phosphate glasses. We conclude that to obtain true ML predictive capability of GFA, significantly more data needs to be collected.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Vacant niches help predict invasion risk by birds

Abstract Aim If communities have a ceiling determining the number of species that can coexist, then the ability of alien species to establish at any given location should be related to the quantity of vacant niches available. We developed a new approach to estimate the extent to which niches are vacant and then explored the relationship between vacant niches and alien species. Location Global with focal tests in Europe and North America. Taxon Birds. Methods Drawing on a global classification of trophic structures for birds, we calculated a ‘vacant niche ratio’ metric to quantify the expected level of saturation (i.e. number of vacant niches) for each 1° × 1° grid cell globally, based on the difference between expected and observed numbers of bird species for all trophic guilds. Next, we used random forests to examine if the presence of plant‐invertivore (whose food source represents plants, seeds, fruits and invertebrates) and granivore alien bird species was associated with the vacant niche ratio across well‐sampled regions. Results In Europe, we found a significant relationship between alien species and vacant niches, with greater numbers of alien species being found in communities that offered greater numbers of vacant niches overall, and across habitat types. In North America, we found no significant relationship between plant‐invertivores and vacant niches, while for granivores, we found that areas with fewer vacant niches had greater numbers of alien species, especially in forests. However, vacant niches alone correctly predict 69% of the presence of alien bird species when combining both regions and trophic guilds. Main Conclusions Most regions of the world have unsaturated bird communities, with the level of saturation in communities varying within regions and trophic guilds. We found that although often‐neglected, vacant niches are likely to be, at least partially, related with the successful establishment of alien bird species.

González‐del‐Pliego, Pamela↗
DOE OSTI2021

An Approach to Bayesian Optimization for Design Feasibility Check on Discontinuous Black-Box Functions

The paper presents a novel approach to applying Bayesian Optimization (BO) in predicting an unknown constraint boundary, also representing the discontinuity of an unknown function, for a feasibility check on the design space, thereby representing a classification tool to discern between a feasible and infeasible region. Bayesian optimization is a low-cost black-box global optimization tool in the Sequential Design Methods where one learns and updates knowledge from prior evaluated designs, and proceeds to the selection of new designs for future evaluation. However, BO is best suited to problems with the assumption of a continuous objective function and does not guarantee true convergence when having a discontinuous design space. This is because of the insufficient knowledge of the BO about the nature of the discontinuity of the unknown true function. In this paper, we have proposed to predict the location of the discontinuity using a BO algorithm on an artificially projected continuous design space from the original discontinuous design space. The proposed approach has been implemented in a thin tube design with the risk of creep-fatigue failure under constant loading of temperature and pressure. The stated risk depends on the location of the designs in terms of safe and unsafe regions, where the discontinuities lie at the transition between those regions; therefore, the discontinuity has also been treated as an unknown creep-fatigue failure constraint. The proposed BO algorithm has been trained to maximize sampling toward the unknown transition region, to act as a high accuracy classifier between safe and unsafe designs with minimal training cost. The converged solution has been validated for different design parameters with classification error rate and function evaluations at an average of <1% and ~150, respectively. Finally, the performance of our proposed approach in terms of training cost and classification accuracy of thin tube design is shown to be better than the existing machine learning (ML) algorithms such as Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF), and Boosting.

Engineering↗