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At least 559 records · Page 31

Sampling Errors in Monthly Rainfall Totals for TRMM and SSM/I, Based on Statistics of Retrieved Rain Rates and Simple Models

Estimates from TRMM satellite data of monthly total rainfall over an area are subject to substantial sampling errors due to the limited number of visits to the area by the satellite during the month. Quantitative comparisons of TRMM averages with data collected by other satellites and by ground-based systems require some estimate of the size of this sampling error. A method of estimating this sampling error based on the actual statistics of the TRMM observations and on some modeling work has been developed. "Sampling error" in TRMM monthly averages is defined here relative to the monthly total a hypothetical satellite permanently stationed above the area would have reported. "Sampling error" therefore includes contributions from the random and systematic errors introduced by the satellite remote sensing system. As part of our long-term goal of providing error estimates for each grid point accessible to the TRMM instruments, sampling error estimates for TRMM based on rain retrievals from TRMM microwave (TMI) data are compared for different times of the year and different oceanic areas (to minimize changes in the statistics due to algorithmic differences over land and ocean). Changes in sampling error estimates due to changes in rain statistics due 1) to evolution of the official algorithms used to process the data, and 2) differences from other remote sensing systems such as the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I), are analyzed.

Bell, Thomas L.↗

Microwave scatter and sea state estimation - Two-scale ocean wave models

The efficient estimation of ocean wave-structure parameters with a remote, narrow-beam, pulsed, microwave radar at intermediate incidence angles is discussed. The sea surface is described as the sum of random small- and large-scale structures (waves), the latter the sum of a sinusoid and a random field. It is shown that the small-scale structure is responsible for scattering and that the scatter depends parametrically on the large-scale structure. For the estimation problem it is assumed, reasonably, that the received signal is normally distributed: a relatively simple processor which will efficiently estimate parameters of the sinusoidal structure is illustrated and its performance discussed. A brief comparison is made with a normal incidence system with which the variance of the large-scale random roughness can be estimated.

Harger, R. O.↗

Reliability of Space-Shuttle Pressure Vessels with Random Batch Effects

In this article we revisit the problem of estimating the joint reliability against failure by stress rupture of a group of fiber-wrapped pressure vessels used on Space-Shuttle missions. The available test data were obtained from an experiment conducted at the U.S. Department of Energy Lawrence Livermore Laboratory (LLL) in which scaled-down vessels were subjected to life testing at four accelerated levels of pressure. We estimate the reliability assuming that both the Shuttle and LLL vessels were chosen at random in a two-stage process from an infinite population with spools of fiber as the primary sampling unit. Two main objectives of this work are: (1) to obtain practical estimates of reliability taking into account random spool effects and (2) to obtain a realistic assessment of estimation accuracy under the random model. Here, reliability is calculated in terms of a 'system' of 22 fiber-wrapped pressure vessels, taking into account typical pressures and exposure times experienced by Shuttle vessels. Comparisons are made with previous studies. The main conclusion of this study is that, although point estimates of reliability are still in the 'comfort zone,' it is advisable to plan for replacement of the pressure vessels well before the expected Lifetime of 100 missions per Shuttle Orbiter. Under a random-spool model, there is simply not enough information in the LLL data to provide reasonable assurance that such replacement would not be necessary.

Feiveson, Alan H.↗

Using MERRA Gridded Innovations for Quantifying Uncertainties in Analysis Fields and Diagnosing Observing System Inhomogeneities

MERRA is a NASA reanalysis for the satellite era using a major new version of the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System Version 5 (GEOS-5). The project focuses on historical analyses of the hydrological cycle on a broad range of weather and climate time scales and places the NASA EOS suite of observations in a climate context. The characterization of uncertainty in reanalysis fields is a commonly requested feature by users of such data. While intercomparison with reference data sets is common practice for ascertaining the realism of the datasets, such studies typically are restricted to long term climatological statistics and seldom provide state dependent measures of the uncertainties involved. In principle, variational data assimilation algorithms have the ability of producing error estimates for the analysis variables (typically surface pressure, winds, temperature, moisture and ozone) consistent with the assumed background and observation error statistics. However, these "perceived error estimates" are expensive to obtain and are limited by the somewhat simplistic errors assumed in the algorithm. The observation minus forecast residuals (innovations) by-product of any assimilation system constitutes a powerful tool for estimating the systematic and random errors in the analysis fields. Unfortunately, such data is usually not readily available with reanalysis products, often requiring the tedious decoding of large datasets and not so-user friendly file formats. With MERRA we have introduced a gridded version of the observations/innovations used in the assimilation process, using the same grid and data formats as the regular datasets. Such dataset empowers the user with the ability of conveniently performing observing system related analysis and error estimates. The scope of this dataset will be briefly described. We will present a systematic analysis of MERRA innovation time series for the conventional observing system, including maximum-likelihood estimates of background and observation errors, as well as global bias estimates. Starting with the joint PDF of innovations and analysis increments at observation locations we propose a technique for diagnosing bias among the observing systems, and document how these contextual biases have evolved during the satellite era covered by MERRA.

da Silva, Arlindo↗

Processing of on-board recorded data for quick analysis of aircraft performance

A system of independent computer programs for the processing of digitized pulse code modulated (PCM) and frequency modulated (FM) data is described. Information is stored in a set of random files and accessed to produce both statistical and graphical output. The software system is designed primarily to present these reports within a twenty-four hour period for quick analysis of the helicopter's performance.

Michaud, N. H.↗

Determination of the Required Number of Randomly Spaced Communication Satellites

An investigation has been made f o r determining the minimum number of passive satellites i n near-earth orbits required t o provide given percentages of communication time between two selected ground stations. The study is limited to the geometrical and probability aspects of the problem. An application of the analysis i s made f o r an assumed transatlantic communication system. The satellites are considered t o be i n circular, randomly spaced orbits with fixed inclination and altitude considered range from 1,000 t o 3,000 statute miles.

Bennett, Floyd V.↗

Standard random number generation for MBASIC

A machine-independent algorithm is presented and analyzed for generating pseudorandom numbers suitable for the standard MBASIC system. The algorithm used is the polynomial congruential or linear recurrence modulo 2 method. Numbers, formed as nonoverlapping adjacent 28-bit words taken from the bit stream produced by the formula a sub m + 532 = a sub m + 37 + a sub m (modulo 2), do not repeat within the projected age of the solar system, show no ensemble correlation, exhibit uniform distribution of adjacent numbers up to 19 dimensions, and do not deviate from random runs-up and runs-down behavior.

Tausworthe, R. C.↗

Electron trapping data storage system and applications

The advent of digital information storage and retrieval has led to explosive growth in data transmission techniques, data compression alternatives, and the need for high capacity random access data storage. Advances in data storage technologies are limiting the utilization of digitally based systems. New storage technologies will be required which can provide higher data capacities and faster transfer rates in a more compact format. Magnetic disk/tape and current optical data storage technologies do not provide these higher performance requirements for all digital data applications. A new technology developed at the Optex Corporation out-performs all other existing data storage technologies. The Electron Trapping Optical Memory (ETOM) media is capable of storing as much as 14 gigabytes of uncompressed data on a single, double-sided 54 inch disk with a data transfer rate of up to 12 megabits per second. The disk is removable, compact, lightweight, environmentally stable, and robust. Since the Write/Read/Erase (W/R/E) processes are carried out 100 percent photonically, no heating of the recording media is required. Therefore, the storage media suffers no deleterious effects from repeated Write/Read/Erase cycling.

Brower, Daniel↗

Exploring the Connection Between Sampling Problems in Bayesian Inference and Statistical Mechanics

The Bayesian and statistical mechanical communities often share the same objective in their work - estimating and integrating probability distribution functions (pdfs) describing stochastic systems, models or processes. Frequently, these pdfs are complex functions of random variables exhibiting multiple, well separated local minima. Conventional strategies for sampling such pdfs are inefficient, sometimes leading to an apparent non-ergodic behavior. Several recently developed techniques for handling this problem have been successfully applied in statistical mechanics. In the multicanonical and Wang-Landau Monte Carlo (MC) methods, the correct pdfs are recovered from uniform sampling of the parameter space by iteratively establishing proper weighting factors connecting these distributions. Trivial generalizations allow for sampling from any chosen pdf. The closely related transition matrix method relies on estimating transition probabilities between different states. All these methods proved to generate estimates of pdfs with high statistical accuracy. In another MC technique, parallel tempering, several random walks, each corresponding to a different value of a parameter (e.g. "temperature"), are generated and occasionally exchanged using the Metropolis criterion. This method can be considered as a statistically correct version of simulated annealing. An alternative approach is to represent the set of independent variables as a Hamiltonian system. Considerab!e progress has been made in understanding how to ensure that the system obeys the equipartition theorem or, equivalently, that coupling between the variables is correctly described. Then a host of techniques developed for dynamical systems can be used. Among them, probably the most powerful is the Adaptive Biasing Force method, in which thermodynamic integration and biased sampling are combined to yield very efficient estimates of pdfs. The third class of methods deals with transitions between states described by rate constants. These problems are isomorphic with chemical kinetics problems. Recently, several efficient techniques for this purpose have been developed based on the approach originally proposed by Gillespie. Although the utility of the techniques mentioned above for Bayesian problems has not been determined, further research along these lines is warranted

Pohorille, Andrew↗

Real-Time Operating System/360

RTOS has a cost savings advantage for real-time applications, such as those with random inputs requiring a flexible data routing facility, display systems simplified by a device independent interface language, and complex applications needing added storage protection and data queuing.

Hoffman, R. L.↗

Three-level sampler having automated thresholds

A three-level sampler is described that has its thresholds controlled automatically so as to track changes in the statistics of the random process being sampled. In particular, the mean value is removed and the ratio of the standard deviation of the random process to the threshold is maintained constant. The system is configured in such a manner that slow drifts in the level comparators and digital-to-analog converters are also removed. The ratio of the standard deviation to threshold level may be chosen within the constraints of the ratios of two integers N and M. These may be chosen to minimize the quantizing noise of the sampled process.

Jurgens, R. F.↗