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Inferring demographic and selective histories from population genomic data using a 2-step approach in species with coding-sparse genomes: an application to human data

Abstract The demographic history of a population, and the distribution of fitness effects (DFE) of newly arising mutations in functional genomic regions, are fundamental factors dictating both genetic variation and evolutionary trajectories. Although both demographic and DFE inference has been performed extensively in humans, these approaches have generally either been limited to simple demographic models involving a single population, or, where a complex population history has been inferred, without accounting for the potentially confounding effects of selection at linked sites. Taking advantage of the coding-sparse nature of the genome, we propose a 2-step approach in which coalescent simulations are first used to infer a complex multi-population demographic model, utilizing large non-functional regions that are likely free from the effects of background selection. We then use forward-in-time simulations to perform DFE inference in functional regions, conditional on the complex demography inferred and utilizing expected background selection effects in the estimation procedure. Throughout, recombination and mutation rate maps were used to account for the underlying empirical rate heterogeneity across the human genome. Importantly, within this framework it is possible to utilize and fit multiple aspects of the data, and this inference scheme represents a generalized approach for such large-scale inference in species with coding-sparse genomes.

Soni, Vivak (ORCID:0000000294969562)↗

A complete catalogue of broad-line AGNs and double-peaked emission lines from MaNGA integral-field spectroscopy of 10K galaxies: stellar population of AGNs, supermassive black holes, and dual AGNs

We analyse the integral field spectroscopy data for the ≈10 000 galaxies in final data release of the MaNGA survey. We identify 188 galaxies for which the emission lines cannot be described by single Gaussian components. These galaxies can be classified into (1) 38 galaxies with broad $\rm H\alpha$ and [O III] $\rm \lambda$5007 lines, (2) 101 galaxies with broad $\rm H\alpha$ lines but no broad [O III] $\rm \lambda$5007 lines, and (3) 49 galaxies with double-peaked narrow emission lines. Most of the broad-line galaxies are classified as active galactic nuclei (AGNs) from their line ratios. The catalogue helps us further understand the AGN-galaxy coevolution through the stellar population of broad-line region host galaxies and the relation between broad lines’ properties and the host galaxies’ dynamical properties. The stellar population properties (including mass, age, and metallicity) of broad-line host galaxies suggest there is no significant difference between narrow-line Seyfert-2 galaxies and Type-1 AGNs with broad $\rm H\alpha$ lines. We use the broad-$\rm H\alpha$ line width and luminosity to estimate masses of black hole in these galaxies, and test the MBH–σe relation in Type-1 AGN host galaxies. Furthermore, we find three dual AGN candidates supported by radio images from the VLA FIRST survey. This sample may be useful for further studies on AGN activities and feedback processes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Joint Analysis of the Epidemic Evolution and Human Mobility During the First Wave of COVID-19 in Spain: Retrospective Study

Background The initial wave of the COVID-19 pandemic placed a tremendous strain on health care systems worldwide. To mitigate the spread of the virus, many countries implemented stringent nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), which significantly altered human behavior both before and after their enactment. Despite these efforts, a precise assessment of the impact and efficacy of these NPIs, as well as the extent of human behavioral changes, remained elusive. Objective In this study, we conducted a retrospective analysis of the initial wave of COVID-19 in Spain to better comprehend the influence of NPIs and their interaction with human behavior. Such investigations are vital for devising future mitigation strategies to combat COVID-19 and enhance epidemic preparedness more broadly. Methods We used a combination of national and regional retrospective analyses of pandemic incidence alongside large-scale mobility data to assess the impact and timing of government-implemented NPIs in combating COVID-19. Additionally, we compared these findings with a model-based inference of hospitalizations and fatalities. This model-based approach enabled us to construct counterfactual scenarios that gauged the consequences of delayed initiation of epidemic response measures. Results Our analysis demonstrated that the pre–national lockdown epidemic response, encompassing regional measures and heightened individual awareness, significantly contributed to reducing the disease burden in Spain. The mobility data indicated that people adjusted their behavior in response to the regional epidemiological situation before the nationwide lockdown was implemented. Counterfactual scenarios suggested that without this early epidemic response, there would have been an estimated 45,400 (95% CI 37,400-58,000) fatalities and 182,600 (95% CI 150,400-233,800) hospitalizations compared to the reported figures of 27,800 fatalities and 107,600 hospitalizations, respectively. Conclusions Our findings underscore the significance of self-implemented prevention measures by the population and regional NPIs before the national lockdown in Spain. The study also emphasizes the necessity for prompt and precise data quantification prior to enacting enforced measures. This highlights the critical interplay between NPIs, epidemic progression, and human behavior. This interdependence presents a challenge in predicting the impact of NPIs before they are implemented.

Public, Environmental & Occupational Health↗

Thermodynamics of free and bound magnons in graphene

Symmetry-broken electronic phases support neutral collective excitations. For example, monolayer graphene in the quantum Hall regime hosts a nearly ideal ferromagnetic phase at specific filling factors that spontaneously breaks the spin-rotation symmetry. This ferromagnet has been shown to support spin-wave excitations known as magnons that can be electrically generated and detected. Although long-distance magnon propagation has been demonstrated via transport measurements, important thermodynamic properties of such magnon populations—including the magnon chemical potential and density—have not been measured. Here we present local measurements of electron compressibility under the influence of magnons, which reveal a reduction in the gap associated with the ν = 1 quantum Hall state by up to 20%. Combining these measurements with the estimates of temperature, our analysis reveals that the injected magnons bind to electrons and holes to form skyrmions, and it enables the extraction of free magnon density, magnon chemical potential and average skyrmion spin. Our methods provide a means of probing the thermodynamic properties of charge-neutral excitations that are applicable to other symmetry-broken electronic phases.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Extending the chemical reach of the H3 survey: detailed abundances of the dwarf-galaxy stellar stream Wukong/LMS-1

ABSTRACT We present the first detailed chemical-abundance analysis of stars from the dwarf-galaxy stellar stream Wukong/LMS-1 covering a wide metallicity range ($-3.5 \lt \rm [Fe/H] \lesssim -1.3$). We find abundance patterns that are effectively indistinguishable from the bulk of Indus and Jhelum, a pair of smaller stellar streams proposed to be dynamically associated with Wukong/LMS-1. We confirmed a carbon-enhanced metal-poor star ($\rm [C/Fe] \gt +0.7$ and $\rm [Fe/H] \sim -2.9$) in Wukong/LMS-1 with strong enhancements in Sr, Y, and Zr, which is peculiar given its solar-level [Ba/Fe]. Wukong/LMS-1 stars have high abundances of α elements up to $\rm [Fe/H] \gtrsim -2$, which is expected for relatively massive dwarfs. Towards the high-metallicity end, Wukong/LMS-1 becomes α-poor, revealing that it probably experienced fairly standard chemical evolution. We identified a pair of N- and Na-rich stars in Wukong/LMS-1, reminiscent of multiple stellar populations in globular clusters. This indicates that this dwarf galaxy contained at least one globular cluster that was completely disrupted in addition to two intact ones previously known to be associated with Wukong/LMS-1, which is possibly connected to similar evidence found in Indus. From these ≥3 globular clusters, we estimate the total mass of Wukong/LMS-1 to be ${\approx }10^{10} \, \mathrm{M}_\odot$, representing ∼1 per cent of the present-day Milky Way. Finally, the [Eu/Mg] ratio in Wukong/LMS-1 continuously increases with metallicity, making this the first example of a dwarf galaxy where the production of r-process elements is clearly dominated by delayed sources, presumably neutron-star mergers.

Limberg, Guilherme (ORCID:0000000292698287)↗

Evaluating the Effectiveness of an Ultrasonic Acoustic Deterrent in Reducing Bat Fatalities at Wind Energy Facilities

This project was designed to use thermal video cameras and fatality monitoring to evaluate the effectiveness of an ultrasonic acoustic deterrent (UAD) on bat activity and mortality, respectively. Our goals were to redesign the UAD device and installation infrastructure, determine the placement on wind turbines to optimize safety, compatibility and functionality, and to compare the mortality among the following conditions: Control (deterrents off and turbines feathered up to the manufacturer’s cut-in speed of 3.5 m/s), Deterrent (deterrents on and turbines feathered up to the manufacturer’s cut-in speed of 3.5 m/s), Curtailment (deterrents off and turbines feathered up to 5/ m/s), and combination (deterrents on and turbines feathered up to 5 m/s). The project was divided into a Feasibility Study and Comparative Study. The objectives for the Feasibility Study were to develop an installation strategy, redesign a previous iteration of a UAD to improve performance and weatherization, and test the effectiveness of the deterrents on bat activity. The Feasibility Study was intended to work out potential issues using a relatively small number of devices prior to manufacturing and installing numerous devices for a larger-scale comparative study. The division of the project into these separate studies was based on previous experience and the challenges of assessing the capabilities of an untested UAD. During the initial development and manufacturing of the UAD, NRG Systems decided to use a piezoelectric transducer rather than an electrostatic transducer, which was used by a previous device (i.e. Deaton UAD). NRG Systems conducted lab testing (i.e., IP67 or Ingress Protection) to ensure no water or dust ingress. In addition, shock/drop trials and variations in temperature exposure were conducted as part of the reliability testing. NRG Systems also developed a communications system to allow for continuous performance monitoring of the UADs. For the Feasibility Study, we installed 6 UADs on each of 2 Gamesa G90 2-MW wind turbines (Turbine 14 and 8) at the South Chestnut Wind Energy Facility, Pennsylvania and monitored activity under control and treatment (i.e. Deterrent) conditions using thermal video monitoring. There are two major sources of variation in bat activity (beyond the anticipated treatment effect): 1) environment around the turbines might inherently favor more activity at one than the other; 2) weather conditions on any given night or within season difference (e.g., migration later during the study period) might favor more activity on some nights than on other nights. Because we could only monitor two turbines on any night, we sought to control the potential influences of these two sources by alternating the turbine on which deterrents were activated each night. If there were no loss of data due to technical failures, this design would result in an equal number of deterrent and control nights at each turbine through the monitoring period, balancing the effects of both sources of variation. We compared the time bats spent and the number of events that occurred in overlapping cameras FOV as an indicator of risk, since 80% of the overlapping FOV of the cameras was in the RSA. Equipment failures, majority due to lightning, resulted in only 17 nights with useable data, with unbalanced treatment assignment within turbines and uneven distribution of treatment assignment throughout the observational period. This resulted in a confounding of treatment assignment and seasonal change. Deterrent treatment was measured at Turbine 14 on only 2 of the first 8 usable nights (spanning the period from 8/18-9/17), whereas 6 times on Turbine 8. From 9/18-927, deterrent was on at Turbine 14 on 6 of the remaining 10 nights, and 4 on Turbine 8. We recorded a total of 1,057 bats and observed a reduction in number of events and duration of events at the UAD-activated turbine when it was Turbine 14. When Turbine 8 had the UAD activated, we observed no difference in number or duration of events. Variation between turbines is not unusual and can cause issues when study designs have no true replication, i.e., multiple turbines per treatment. Within-turbine differences suggested a trend for reduced activity when UADs were activated, particularly for Turbine 14. These results may be caused by the overall higher bat activity at Turbine 8 and confounding of treatment assignment and seasonal trends. We mapped 58 bat events in 3-dimensional space (3D), 30 and 28 events during control and treatment conditions, respectively. We observed bats crossing the rotor plane under both control and treatment conditions and observed a total of 40 confirmed or near-collisions (i.e., target close to blade but no visual confirmation of a strike) out of a total of 1,491 medium and high confidence bat observations (880 control, 611 at treatment). Twice as many collisions/possible collisions were observed during control conditions. Given the challenges with the equipment and potential confounding of the data (i.e., different activity levels at the two wind turbines), we were unable to determine whether this initial turbine placement and orientation was optimal. Given no new information on how best to install the devices, we elected to use the same placement and orientation for the comparative study. For the Comparative Study, the objectives were to investigate the relative mortality rates among 4 treatments. We searched the area within 90 m of each turbine daily to recover the highest number of fresh fatalities possible. We were unable to detect a clear reduction in mortality from deterrents alone for any individual species. Surprisingly, mortality rate of the eastern red bat (Lasiurus borealis) was estimated to be 1.3–4.2 times as much when turbines were operating normally and UADs were on than when UADs were off. Reduction in mortality of all bat species combined due to curtailment of turbines was estimated to be between 0%–38%. This effect was nullified when, in addition to curtailment, UADs were on, with 95% confidence interval ranging from a 45% reduction to a 36% increase in mortality. This was likely due to the large proportion of eastern red bats in the total carcass population. Mortality of all low-frequency echolocating bats combined (i.e. hoary bat [L. cinereus], big brown bat [Eptesicus fuscus], silver-haired bat [Lasionycteris noctivagans]) relative to control was lower when curtailed (95% CI: 0%–74%), but the addition of UADs had no detectable effect (95%CI: 13%–79%). The combined treatment reduced mortality in silver-haired bats relative to control by 11%–99%, compared to curtailment (81% reduction–67% increase) or deterrent (82% reduction–67% increase) alone. Because silver-haired bats comprised a large proportion of low-frequency calling bats found during this study, a similar effect was seen for that group. The higher mortality observed for eastern red bats at UAD compared to control could have been caused by several factors, such as the effective range of the UAD, particularly at higher frequencies, behavior, positioning of the devices on the nacelle, or a combination of these. We used 3D thermal videography to compare control and UAD bat behavior from two turbines using a total of 203 3D bat-tracks across 34 nights. We recorded a similar number of bat-tracks between treatment groups, with 51% and 49% for control and UAD, respectively. Due to potential differences in bat behavior around spinning vs stationary turbine blades, we examined UAD effectiveness separately for non-operating turbines (feathered below cut-in speed of 3.5 m/s) and operating (normal operation above wind speed of 3.5 m/s). We found a higher proportion of bat-tracks at operating turbines (82%) compared to non-operating turbines (18%), although this does not account for overall time turbines were operating versus not. At non-operating turbines the UAD appears to be effective at reducing the amount of time, flight length, and number of passes through the rotor plane, compared to control. In addition, we found bats approached turbines similarly between control and treatment turbines, with 61% of control and 63% of UAD bat-tracks originating leeward of the hub. In contrast, at operating turbines, we saw little change in bat behavior in response to UADs. For example, we found an increase in the average duration of bat-tracks between non-operating and operating turbines for UAD but at control turbines we found average duration decreased once turbines became operational. Both control and UAD had a high proportion of bat-tracks that crossed the rotor plane (i.e., collision risk) originate from the windward side when turbines were operational 65% to 92%, respectively. Given that the UAD devices closest to the blades were orientated parallel to the blades, its possible bats were not exposed to the signal until they were close to the turbine blades, as suggested by the slightly higher mean duration within 5 meters of the blades for UAD turbines. Future research should consider concentrating UAD intensity on the areas of risk (i.e. blades) with enough buffer to allow bats to react to the sound before entering the rotor-swept area (RSA). In addition, investigating the potential of installing UAD units windward of the turbine blades (e.g. a hub-mounted UAD), particularly since even under control conditions, a relatively high proportion (65%) of crosses through the blade plane originated windward. 3D thermal videography provided valuable information on future testing strategies (e.g. device placement, UAD orientation) to improve UAD effectiveness when bats are at risk (i.e., operating wind turbines). Across the entire project we experienced issues with the operation and communication with the UADs. Most of the issues occurred during the Feasibility Study and were resolved prior to the Comparability Study. Additional challenges surfaced during the Comparability Study but were remedied immediately and are thought to have little impact on the results. We had logistical constraints at the project that limited our ability use traditional methods in our camera calibration. Several calibrations showed inaccurate scales, which may have been related to inadequate spatial coverage of “points” in the camera calibration volume. Because we were using actual video recordings of bats at a wind turbine, the behavior of bats could have concentrated “points” in specific areas of the turbine (i.e. leeward of nacelle), and limited “points” in other areas, resulting in camera calibration issues. We have plans to address these inconsistencies and improving the software and related methodologies by early 2020.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Comparative Study of Hydrology and Icemelt in Three Nepal River Basins Using the Glacio-Hydrological Degree-Day Model (GDM) and Observations From the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT)

An assessment of the water supply and its seasonal and annual changes over the century in the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region is of increasing interest due to its potential impact on one-sixth of the global population. In order to understand the changing hydrology and snow and ice melt, we used remotely sensed Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) observations of glacier melt (GM) and a distributed and gridded Glacio-hydrological Degree-day Model (GDM) in three river basins: Tamor, Trishuli and Marsyangdi. The GDM-estimated contribution of snowmelt, icemelt, rainfall and baseflow in river flows is found to be most accurate in the Trishuli River basin, with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) between the estimated and observed discharges of 0.81 and volume differences of -0.5%, and reasonably accurate in the Tamor River basin, with NSE of 0.69 and volume difference of -7.51%. Similarly, NSE of 0.81 and volume difference of 4.64% in Marsyangdi River basin. We find strong similarities in the timing of glacier melting using the GDM and from observations from the ASCAT GM, determining the seasonal start of glacier melting to within 6 days on average. In all basins ASCAT GM observes melting at higher elevations relative to GDM, average of 5,328 m a.s.l. Systematic differences in glacier melting area determined by modeling and satellite observations indicate ASCAT may have suboptimal resolution, view geometry and/or polarimetry for delineating glacier melting at the process-scale in complex topography, especially in the ablation zone. This is the first step in examining the remote sensing products that could potentially be incorporated into hydrologic models to increase the accuracy of the hydrologic flow as well as the ability to estimate river discharge in other basins with limited data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling the Galactic Neutron Star Population for Use in Continuous Gravitational-wave Searches

Searches for continuous gravitational waves (GW) from unknown Galactic neutron stars provide limits on the shapes of neutron stars. A rotating neutron star will produce GW if asymmetric deformations exist in its structure that are characterized by the star's ellipticity. Here, in this study, we use a simple model of the spatial and spin distribution of Galactic neutron stars to estimate the total number of neutron stars probed, using GW, to a given upper limit on the ellipticity. This may help optimize future searches with improved sensitivity. The improved sensitivity of third-generation GW detectors may increase the number of neutron stars probed, to a given ellipticity, by factors of 100 to 1000.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Chemical Imaging of Fine Mode Atmospheric Particles Collected from a Research Aircraft over Agricultural Fields

Vegetation and crops in agricultural areas are a significant source of both biogenic secondary organic aerosols and of directly emitted primary biological atmospheric particles (PBAPs) composed of plant fragments/debris, fungal spores, pollen, and bacteria among others. Seasonal crop harvesting significantly intensifies regional PBAP emissions and aerosolizes soil organic matter and dust particulates. In this paper, the atmospheric contributions and impact of PBAPs have been insufficiently investigated due to limited real-time observations and ambiguity in their detection by existing measurement techniques. We collected ambient particles on-board an instrumented Beechcraft BE76 Duchess research aircraft flying above actively harvested agriculture fields of corn and soybean crops. In this work, particle samples were analyzed using complementary chemical imaging techniques, including computer-controlled scanning electron microscopy coupled with elemental microanalysis to describe particle-type population and scanning transmission X-ray microscopy to provide quantitative metrics on particle internal heterogeneity. We show the particle-class contribution is consistent between corn and soybean harvesting across altitudes of 100–300 m AGL. The contribution of PBAPs in the size range of 0.15–1.25 μm is estimated to be 10–12% of ~39,000 analyzed particles. Determining viscosity with X-ray microanalysis has shown that the fine-mode organic particles collected are viscous/semisolid (10 2 –10 12 Pa s) while the majority of PBAP fragments are solid (>10 12 Pa s). The observation of submicrometer, solid carbonaceous fragments of biogenic origin has implications for the regional cloud condensation nuclei and ice nuclei budget. Therefore, seasonal harvesting of crops may play an important, yet unrecognized, role in regional cloud formation and climate.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Cannibals in the thick disk II. Radial-velocity monitoring of the young α -rich stars

Determining ages of stars for reconstructing the history of the Milky Way remains one of the most difficult tasks in astrophysics. This involves knowing when it is possible to relate the stellar mass with its age and when it is not. The young α-rich (YAR) stars present such a case in which we are still not sure about their ages because they are relatively massive, implying young ages, but their abundances are α-enhanced, which implies old ages. We report the results from new observations from a long-term radial-velocity-monitoring campaign complemented with high-resolution spectroscopy, as well as new astrometry and seismology of a sample of 41 red giants from the third version of APOKASC, which includes YAR stars. The aim is to better characterize the YAR stars in terms of binarity, mass, abundance trends, and kinematic properties. The radial velocities of HERMES, APOGEE, and Gaia were combined to determine the binary fraction among YAR stars. In combination with their mass estimate, evolutionary status, chemical composition, and kinematic properties, it allowed us to better constrain the nature of these objects. We found that stars with M < 1 M ⊙ were all single, whereas stars with M > 1 M ⊙ could be either single or binary. This is in agreement with theoretical predictions of population synthesis models. Studying their [C/N], [C/Fe], and [N/Fe], trends with mass, it became clear that many YAR stars do not follow the APOKASC stars, favoring the scenario that most of them are the product of mass transfer. Our sample further includes two likely undermassive stars, that is to say of such as low mass that they cannot have reached the red clump within the age of the Universe, unless their low mass is the signature of mass loss in previous evolutionary phases. These stars do not show signatures of currently being binaries. Both YAR and undermassive stars might show some anomalous APOGEE abundances for the elements N, Na, P, K, and Cr; although, higher-resolution optical spectroscopy might be needed to confirm these findings. Considering the significant fraction of stars that are formed in pairs and the variety of ways that makes mass transfer possible, the diversity in properties in terms of binarity, and chemistry of the YAR and undermassive stars studied here implies that most of these objects are likely not young.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Narrow-line Seyfert 1 galaxies in Sloan Digital Sky Survey: a new optical spectroscopic catalogue

ABSTRACT Narrow-line Seyfert 1 (NLSy1) galaxies are an enigmatic class of active galactic nuclei (AGN) that exhibit peculiar multiwavelength properties across the electromagnetic spectrum. For example, these sources have allowed us to explore the innermost regions of the central engine of AGN using X-ray observations and have also provided clues about the origin of relativistic jets considering radio and gamma-ray bands. Keeping in mind the ongoing and upcoming wide-field, multifrequency sky surveys, we present a new catalogue of NLSy1 galaxies. This was done by carrying out a detailed decomposition of >2 million optical spectra of quasars and galaxies from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 17 (SDSS-DR17) using the publicly available software ‘Bayesian AGN Decomposition Analysis for SDSS Spectra’. The catalogue contains 22656 NLSy1 galaxies which is more than twice the size of the previously identified NLSy1s based on SDSS-DR12. As a corollary, we also release a new catalogue of 52273 broad-line Seyfert 1 (BLSy1) galaxies. The estimated optical spectral parameters and derived quantities confirm the previously known finding of NLSy1 galaxies being AGN powered by highly accreting, low-mass black holes. We conclude that this enlarged sample of NLSy1 and BLSy1 galaxies will enable us to explore the low-luminosity end of the AGN population by effectively utilizing the sensitive, high-quality observations delivered by ongoing/upcoming wide-field sky surveys. The catalogue has been made public at https://www.ucm.es/blazars/seyfert.

Paliya, Vaidehi S. (ORCID:0000000177745308)↗

Discrete-Direct Model Calibration and Uncertainty Propagation Method Confirmed on Multi-Parameter Plasticity Model Calibrated to Sparse Random Field Data

A discrete direct (DD) model calibration and uncertainty propagation approach is explained and demonstrated on a 4-parameter Johnson-Cook (J-C) strain-rate dependent material strength model for an aluminum alloy. The methodology's performance is characterized in many trials involving four random realizations of strain-rate dependent material-test data curves per trial, drawn from a large synthetic population. The J-C model is calibrated to particular combinations of the data curves to obtain calibration parameter sets which are then propagated to “Can Crush” structural model predictions to produce samples of predicted response variability. These are processed with appropriate sparse-sample uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods to estimate various statistics of response with an appropriate level of conservatism. This is tested on 16 output quantities (von Mises stresses and equivalent plastic strains) and it is shown that important statistics of the true variabilities of the 16 quantities are bounded with a high success rate that is reasonably predictable and controllable. The DD approach has several advantages over other calibration-UQ approaches like Bayesian inference for capturing and utilizing the information obtained from typically small numbers of replicate experiments in model calibration situations—especially when sparse replicate functional data are involved like force–displacement curves from material tests. The DD methodology is straightforward and efficient for calibration and propagation problems involving aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in calibration experiments, models, and procedures.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Sociodemographic effects on pandemic fatigue are multifaceted and context-specific: A longitudinal analysis of physical distancing adherence

Pandemic fatigue emerged early during the COVID-19 pandemic and remains a concern as new variants emerge and ongoing public health measures are needed to control them. A wide range of factors can affect pandemic fatigue, but empiric research indicating which may be most important to adherence in specific populations is lacking. We conducted a longitudinal study of changes in physical distancing in two cohorts: adults living with children <18 years and adults ≥50 years old. Six types of non-work, non-household contacts were ascertained at six times from April to October 2020. We used generalized estimating equations Poisson regression to estimate the one-week change in contact rate and how this differed based on sociodemographic characteristics. The rate of all contact types increased during the middle of the study period and decreased toward the end. Changes in contact rates over time differed according to several sociodemographic characteristics, including age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, household composition, and access to transportation. Furthermore, the factors influencing the rate of change in contact rates differed by the type or setting of the contact, for example contacts as a result of visiting another person’s home versus during a retail outing. These results provide evidence for potential mechanisms by which pandemic fatigue has resulted in lower physical distancing adherence.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

High-Resolution PM2.5 Concentrations Estimation Based on Stacked Ensemble Learning Model Using Multi-Source Satellite TOA Data

Nepal has experienced severe fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution in recent years. However, few studies have focused on the distribution of PM2.5 and its variations in Nepal. Although many researchers have developed PM2.5 estimation models, these models have mainly focused on the kilometer scale, which cannot provide accurate spatial distribution of PM2.5 pollution. Based on Gaofen-1/6 and Landsat-8/9 satellite data, we developed a stacked ensemble learning model (named XGBLL) combined with meteorological data, ground PM2.5 concentrations, ground elevation, and population data. The model includes two layers: a XGBoost and Light GBM model in the first layer, and a linear regression model in the second layer. The accuracy of XGBLL model is better than that of a single model, and the fusion of multi-source satellite remote sensing data effectively improves the spatial coverage of PM2.5 concentrations. Besides, the spatial distribution of the daily mean PM2.5 concentrations in the Kathmandu region under different air conditions was analyzed. The validation results showed that the monthly averaged dataset was accurate (R2 = 0.80 and root mean square error = 7.07). In addition, compared to previous satellite PM2.5 datasets in Nepal, the dataset produced in this study achieved superior accuracy and spatial resolution.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Deep Learning with Quantized Neural Networks for Gravitational-wave Forecasting of Eccentric Compact Binary Coalescence

We present the first application of deep learning forecasting for binary neutron stars, neutron star–black hole systems, and binary black hole mergers that span an eccentricity range e ≤ 0.9. In this work, we train neural networks that describe these astrophysical populations, and then test their performance by injecting simulated eccentric signals in advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO) noise available at the Gravitational Wave Open Science Center to (1) quantify how fast neural networks identify these signals before the binary components merge; (2) quantify how accurately neural networks estimate the time to merger once gravitational waves are identified; and (3) estimate the time-dependent sky localization of these events from early detection to merger. Our findings show that deep learning can identify eccentric signals from a few seconds (for binary black holes) up to tens of seconds (for binary neutron stars) prior to merger. A quantized version of our neural networks achieves 4× reduction in model size, and up to 2.5× inference speedup. These novel algorithms may be used to facilitate time-sensitive multimessenger astrophysics observations of compact binaries in dense stellar environments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

SAGAbg. III. Environmental Stellar Mass Functions, Self-quenching, and the Stellar-to-halo Mass Relation in the Dwarf Galaxy Regime

Recent efforts have extended our view of the number and properties of satellite galaxies beyond the Local Group firmly down to M ⋆ ∼ 10 6 M ⊙ . A similarly complete view of the field dwarf population has lagged behind. Using the background galaxy sample from the Satellites Around Galactic Analogs (SAGA) survey at z < 0.05, we take inventory of the dwarf population down to M ⋆ ∼ 5 × 10 6 M ⊙ using three metrics: the stellar mass function (SMF) as a function of environment, the stellar-to-halo mass relation (SHMR) of dwarf galaxies inferred via abundance matching, and the quenched fraction of highly isolated dwarfs. We find that the low-mass SMF shape shows minimal environmental dependence, with the field dwarf SMF described by a low-mass power-law index of α 1 = −1.44 ± 0.09 down to M ⋆ ∼ 5 × 10 6 M ⊙ , and that the quenched fraction of isolated dwarfs drops monotonically to f q ∼ 10 −3 at M ⋆ ∼ 10 8.5 M ⊙ . Though slightly steeper than estimates from H I kinematic measures, our inferred SHMR agrees with literature measurements of satellite systems, consistent with minimal environmental dependence of the SHMR in the probed mass range. Finally, although most contemporary cosmological simulations against which we compare accurately predict the SAGAbg-SMF SHMR, we find that big-box cosmological simulations largely overpredict isolated galaxy quenched fractions via a turnaround in f q (M ⋆ ) at 10 8 ≲ M ⋆ /M ⊙ ≲ 10 9 , underscoring the complexities in disentangling the drivers of galaxy formation and the need for systematic multidimensional observations of the dwarf population across environments.

Kado-Fong, Erin [Yale Univ., New Haven, CT (United↗

Optimization of the autoclave preparation process for improving resistant starch content in rice grains

Abstract The autoclave preparation process to increase the content of resistant starch (RS) in rice grains was optimized, and the results showed that the optimal preparation process was obtained with a water content of 41.63%, a pH of 5.95, an autoclave time of 60.96 min, and a refrigeration time of 17.11 hr. Under these conditions, the theoretical value of RS content in rice grains reached 17.57%. After autoclaving, the estimated glycemic index (EGI) in rice grains was reduced from 78.35 to 66.08 measured after cooking, suggesting that autoclaving was capable of increasing the RS content in rice grains and reducing its EGI value. These results may help spark new concepts and methods for the development of specialized foods for specific populations, such as people with diabetes.

Zheng, Yunzhan↗

Experimental evidence of runaway electron tail generation via localized helical structure in pellet-triggered tokamak disruptions

A novel detector, using stacked BGO crystals, is developed for runaway electron (REs) studies in the DIII-D tokamak. It is able to resolve fast dynamics of high-energy tail formation of REs with an ultra-high time resolution of ~1 μs. As a cost, the detector estimates the `effective' energy of a given shape of γ-ray spectra and sacrifices the energy resolution. In aid of the new measurement capability, a rapid, inhomogeneous growth of RE tail is observed in detail during a major disruption triggered by an argon pellet. It is found that both the population and energy of a well-confined RE tail significantly oscillate at the early period of the growth. The oscillation phase is locked to a slow rotating magnetohydrodynamic instability, which is briefly destabilized for only ~1 ms at the early period of the current quench. The oscillation ceases promptly, when the mode disappears. As a result, the data suggests that the high-energy RE tail is well-confined and accelerated via a localized helical structure in the plasma core.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗