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DOE OSTI2021

Reliability Barriers to Enhanced Solar PV Deployment: Selected Research Findings - State Outreach Policy Sessions

This presentation provides high-level summaries of three reports selected from a body of work that examines potential reliability challenges related to planning future power systems with higher solar photovoltaic (PV) penetrations in the western United States. The three topics covered are 1) Power system flexibility requirements and supply; 2) Resource adequacy and the capacity credit of solar; 3) Simulating distributed energy resource responses to transmission system-level faults considering IEEE 1547 performance categories on three major WECC transmission paths. The full reports and related resources are available at the project website, https://www.westernenergyboard.org/western-interstate-energy-board/barrier-mitigation-to-enhanced-distributed-solar-photovoltaic/. This presentation is targeted toward policy decision makers. A companion technical presentation provides more in-depth summaries of the same material.

distributed energy resource↗

DOE OSTI2023

CRITICAL FUNCTION ASSURANCE: Understanding Critical Function and Critical Function Delivery is Foundational for Meaningful ICS Security Improvement and Policy Efforts

Modern life is enabled by a complex and interdependent web of critical functions, including energy, communications, transportation, food, and water. Automation has significantly reduced or replaced human interactions in the delivery of these functions, resulting in a web of goods and services that are made available 24/7 only through unique and intentional deployments of microprocessors, software, and firmware technologies. The prospect of cyber-enabled sabotage of these processes disrupts traditional risk determination models. Critical Function Assurance (CFA) is a foundational approach to identifying, prioritizing, and mitigating the risk that is inherent in the delivery of critical functions that depend on digital technology. It provides rapid focus to what matters most and illuminates elements and areas of risk that otherwise are often overlooked. This focus enables effective application of available security resources and optimizes security strategy and policy efforts. This paper introduces CFA to decision makers and risk executives (including CEOs, COOs, CFOs, and CISOs) whose organizations support and deliver the critical functions that underpin national defense, societal health and safety, and a vibrant economy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2015

French Atomic and alternative energies commission decommissioning policy and strategies: What is at stake lessons learned and feedback experience - 15013

Since its creation in 1945, the French Atomic Energy and Alternative Energies Commission has carried out research programmes on civil use of nuclear, and its application. CEA has set up and run various types of installations from research (accelerators, pond reactors, fast reactors, laboratories) to industry (power reactor, processing facilities). There are currently more than several tens of facilities which are presently closed down pending dismantling or in the process of being dismantled by CEA, the governmental body for research and development in nuclear and renewable energies. When operating, all these installations have generated radioactive waste. When they are shutdown, either as a result of the programmes for which they were set up, or due to equipment wearing out or being obsolete, these installations must be cleaned up, dismantled and decommissioned, taking into account their nuclear nature and requirements related to safety and environment. During the decommissioning process, the implementer has to deal with safety and site remediation issues. Dealing with these installations is a long-term programme which must be carefully planned and financed in order to optimise its management. The paper will describe the CEA's decommissioning policy, strategies adopted, and draw up lessons learned and feedback experience, showing that: - Safety is guaranteed, - Dismantling is a technically controllable operation, but R and D actions are to be developed for specific problems as characterization or operation in hostile environment. Moreover all the methods and techniques improve as a result of feedback experience, - The amount of material and waste produced by the dismantling are manageable. The very low, low and intermediate level waste can be stored on existing shallow land burial centres, some new repositories have to be created for specific waste (graphite, radium,...) and for high and intermediate level long live waste, which are stored in interim storage , - The dismantling must be optimized, especially by appliance of a good strategy based on rational industrial choices. - Communication and transparency with stakeholders is essential for global process acceptance, - The lessons learned and how feedback experience could benefit for future decommissioning projects. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2020

Spent Nuclear Fuel Storage and Radioactive Waste Disposal in the United States: A Law and Policy Analysis - 20302

While Congress plays political football, spent nuclear fuel continues to sit in de facto interim nuclear waste storage sites throughout the country. This ad hoc approach - if it can even be called an approach - to nuclear waste management is in no one's best interests, because of financial, safety, environmental, and national security concerns with the status quo. Senate leadership had asserted that an up-or-down vote on the Yucca Mountain Project would take place in September or October 2019, but that did not occur. Rather, a conference bill was agreed to, and it provided that, although the nuclear program should receive some funding, funding was not made available for centralized interim storage ('CIS') or the Yucca Mountain Project. The President's FY2021 Budget Request does not contain any proposed funding for the Yucca Mountain Project ('the Project'). This paper will discuss the implications of that process, both for the Project itself and for the U.S. nuclear waste program more generally. In order to provide context for the current situation, this paper will begin by chronicling the history of U.S. nuclear waste management, from the passage of the Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982 and to the present day. It will discuss the roles of the U.S. Department of Energy, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, federal and state political delegations, and the nuclear energy industry. The paper will then identify key themes that can be expected to affect the future of nuclear waste management in the United States. For example, it will consider whether development of additional CIS facilities is a viable short- to medium-term solution. CIS facilities may relieve immediate pressure at decommissioned or soon-to-be-decommissioned nuclear power plants; but with that pressure partially alleviated, support for building a long-term repository may be reduced. It will also discuss opposition by the State of New Mexico and others to the proposed New Mexico CIS project, based not only on siting concerns but also whether it might become a de facto repository, and whether the State of Texas and others may also be opposed, for similar reasons, to the proposed CIS facility in Texas. Additionally, the paper will examine consent-based siting and its implications for Nevada and other states that are potential hosts for spent nuclear fuel storage and disposal facilities. Further, if the Project is not a politically viable solution, the paper will examine whether it is now time for serious consideration of an alternate location for a permanent repository, as well as consideration of other options entirely, such as deep geologic disposal. The paper will conclude by looking ahead to the 2020 elections. It will describe the positions of candidates (particularly Presidential candidates) on spent nuclear fuel storage and disposal options, without advocating for any particular candidate or political party. Perhaps in 2020, we will at least see a start to a solution to the seemingly intractable problem of nuclear waste management in the United States. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2026

Policy Reforms to Unleash Domestic Critical Minerals Mining and Processing

The United States faces growing strategic and economic risks due to its limited ability to mine, process, and refine the minerals required for national defense, energy systems, advanced manufacturing, and emerging technologies. Although the country possesses significant geological resources, development has been slowed by long and unpredictable permitting timelines, fragmented regulatory responsibilities, limited midstream processing capacity, and a shrinking technical workforce. These structural barriers have created supply chain vulnerabilities that constrain industrial growth and reduce national resilience. This report presents a comprehensive set of reforms intended to modernize the nation’s approach to critical minerals. The recommendations address federal permitting, environmental review processes, the legal framework governing mining activities, interagency coordination, domestic processing and refining capacity, and the education and workforce systems needed to support long term industry development. The analysis emphasizes practical steps to shorten project timelines, improve regulatory clarity, expand processing infrastructure, enable recovery from both conventional and nontraditional sources, and update outdated requirements that hinder the development of essential materials. Taken together, the recommended reforms would strengthen domestic supply chains, improve investment certainty, and reduce dependence on external minerals and processing infrastructure. By aligning policy, regulatory frameworks, and workforce capabilities with national needs, the United States can build a more resilient and secure critical minerals ecosystem that supports long term economic competitiveness and technological leadership.

29 - ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Feedstock Choices for Advancing the Bioeconomy in the US and Policy Implications

Biomass feedstocks will be critical for scaling up the bioeconomy in the United States to meet multiple demands for biofuels, sustainable aviation fuel, bioproducts, and biochemicals. There is a wide range of choices of feedstocks, including a variety of dedicated energy crops and crop residues. There are substantial differences in the yields, costs of production, and carbon intensity of these feedstocks and for each feedstock across locations. These feedstocks also differ in the trade-offs they offer among multiple environmental impacts. We discuss the economic factors that will influence the production of these feedstocks and the implications of alternative biofuel and low-carbon policies for the mix of feedstocks that will be incentivized.

Khanna, Madhu (ORCID:0000000349944451)↗

DOE OSTI2020

An agent-based approach to study the diffusion rate and the effect of policies on joint placement of photovoltaic panels and green roof under climate change uncertainty

As two of the highest trending green technologies, photovoltaic panels and green roofs are proven to be effective practices for energy generation and energy saving. The achievable impact from the widespread installation of such technologies is, however, not clearly established. This is mainly because the degree of this impact highly depends on the inherently uncertain environmental and climate factors, as well as the unknown adoption rates of these technologies, which in turn depend on different characteristics of decision makers and interactions among them. To that end, this study aims to investigate the diffusion rate of these green technologies under uncertainties caused by climate change, characteristics of adopters, and their interactions. An integrated framework is developed to capture the interplay between financial and attitudinal aspects, as well as the uncertainties due to both the stochastic nature of system parameters and the interactions among agents involving human beings. Specifically, this framework consists of a integer programming model to optimize the green roof and/or photovoltaic panel installation settings for a given building under climate change uncertainty, and an agent-based model to factor in the role of human behavior and interactions. A case study for the city of Knoxville, TN, is presented to evaluate the effects of different policies on the diffusion rate of the green technologies of interest. The results show that the affordability of green technologies and public awareness are the key drivers of the adoption of these technologies, which highlight the important role of the decision makers in impacting the diffusion rate.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2014

Russian Policy on Methane Emissions in the Oil and Gas Sector: A Case Study in Opportunities and Challenges in Reducing Short-Lived Forcers

This paper uses Russian policy in the oil and gas sector as a case study in assessing options and challenges for scaling-up emission reductions. We examine the challenges to achieving large-scale emission reductions, successes that companies have achieved to date, how Russia has sought to influence methane emissions through its environmental fine system, and options for helping companies achieve large-scale emission reductions in the future through simpler and clearer incentives.

Evans, Meredydd↗

DOE OSTI2016

Tools for integrating environmental objectives into policy and practice: What works where?

An abundance of approaches, strategies, and instruments – in short: tools – have been developed that intend to stimulate or facilitate the integration of a variety of environmental objectives into development planning, national or regional sectoral policies, international agreements, business strategies, etc. These tools include legally mandatory procedures, such as Environmental Impact Assessment and Strategic Environmental Assessment; more voluntary tools such as environmental indicators developed by scientists and planning tools; green budgeting, etc. A relatively underexplored question is what integration tool fits what particular purposes and contexts, in short: “what works where?”. This paper intends to contribute to answering this question, by first providing conceptual clarity about what integration entails, by suggesting and illustrating a classification of integration tools, and finally by summarising some of the lessons learned about how and why integration tools are (not) used and with what outcomes, particularly in terms of promoting the integration of environmental objectives.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Meeting sustainable aviation fuel policy targets through first generation corn biorefineries

This paper investigates options to produce low carbon and renewable aviation fuel through existing commercial first generation biorefineries, which could be strategic given the rapid growth of the electric vehicle market for personal mobility. We evaluate the environmental impact of retrofitting a first generation biorefinery to produce aviation fuel through chemical process simulation. The analysis investigates the potential for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and displacing fossil fuel (petroleum-based jet kerosene) in the aviation fuel industry through using corn feedstocks in dry grind biorefineries to convert sugars to 1,4-dimethylcyclooctane (DMCO), which qualifies as renewable jet-A fuel blend and is infrastructure compatible. Further, the average life cycle GHG emissions for a baseline case and a scenario with carbon capture and storage (CCS) of fermentative CO 2 are 36 and 5g CO 2 e/MJ DMCO, respectively. Investment in CCS at the biorefinery and adoption of crop best management practices on farms are essential for mitigating the risks of induced land use change GHG emissions for existing corn biorefineries. DMCO as a low-carbon aviation fuel could be a strategic fuel product for retrofitting existing corn dry grind facilities. For aviation fuel supply, corn dry grind facilities could displace about 12% of jet fuel demand in the near term, which would meet sustainable aviation fuel policy targets. We conclude that corn-to-DMCO shows promise for near-term low-carbon fuel markets in the aviation industry and as a bridge to developing biomass-based jet fuel in the future.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2016

The Radiation Oncology Job Market: The Economics and Policy of Workforce Regulation

Examinations of the US radiation oncology workforce offer inconsistent conclusions, but recent data raise significant concerns about an oversupply of physicians. Despite these concerns, residency slots continue to expand at an unprecedented pace. Employed radiation oncologists and professional corporations with weak contracts or loose ties to hospital administrators would be expected to suffer the greatest harm from an oversupply. The reduced cost of labor, however, would be expected to increase profitability for equipment owners, technology vendors, and entrenched professional groups. Policymakers must recognize that the number of practicing radiation oncologists is a poor surrogate for clinical capacity. There is likely to be significant opportunity to augment capacity without increasing the number of radiation oncologists by improving clinic efficiency and offering targeted incentives for geographic redistribution. Payment policy changes significantly threaten radiation oncologists' income, which may encourage physicians to care for greater patient loads, thereby obviating more personnel. Furthermore, the implementation of alternative payment models such as Medicare's Oncology Care Model threatens to decrease both the utilization and price of radiation therapy by turning referring providers into cost-conscious consumers. Medicare funds the vast majority of graduate medical education, but the extent to which the expansion in radiation oncology residency slots has been externally funded is unclear. Excess physician capacity carries a significant risk of harm to society by suboptimally allocating intellectual resources and creating comparative shortages in other, more needed disciplines. There are practical concerns associated with a market-based solution in which medical students self-regulate according to job availability, but antitrust law would likely forbid collaborative self-regulation that purports to restrict supply. Because Congress is unlikely to create one central body to govern residency controls for all specialties, we recommend better reporting of program-specific employment metrics and careful, intellectually honest re-evaluation of existing Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education accreditation standards.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

DOE OSTI2014

The Climate Policy Narrative for a Dangerously Warming World

It is time to acknowledge that global average temperatures will likely rise above the 2 C policy target and consider how that deeply troubling prospect should affect priorities for communicating and managing the risks of a dangerously warming climate.

climate change↗

DOE OSTI2023

Swift and extensive Omicron outbreak in China after sudden exit from ‘zero-COVID’ policy

In late 2022, China transitioned from a strict ‘zero-COVID’ policy to rapidly abandoning nearly all interventions and data reporting. This raised great concern about the presumably-rapid but unreported spread of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in a very large population of very low pre-existing immunity. By modeling a combination of case count and survey data, we show that Omicron spread extremely rapidly, at a rate of 0.42/day (95% credibility interval: [0.35, 0.51]/day), translating to an epidemic doubling time of 1.6 days ([1.6, 2.0] days) after the full exit from zero-COVID on Dec. 7, 2022. Consequently, we estimate that the vast majority of the population (97% [95%, 99%], sensitivity analysis lower limit of 90%) was infected during December, with the nation-wide epidemic peaking on Dec. 23. Overall, our results highlight the extremely high transmissibility of the variant and the importance of proper design of intervention exit strategies to avoid large infection waves.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Modeling ocean, rail, and truck transportation flows to support policy analysis

Freight transportation represents about 9.5% of GDP in the U.S., it is responsible for about 8% of greenhouse gas emissions, and supports the import and export of about 3.6 trillion in international trade. It is therefore important that the national freight transportation system is designed and operated efficiently. Hence, this paper develops a mathematical model to estimate international and domestic freight flows across ocean, rail, and truck modes, which can be used to study the impacts of changes in our infrastructure, as well as the imposition of new user fees and changes in operating policies. The model integrates a user equilibrium-based logit argument for path selection with a system optimal argument for rail network operations. This leads to the development of a unique solution procedure that is demonstrated in a large-scale analysis focused on all intercity freight and U.S export/import containerized freight. The model results are compared with the reported flow volumes. Here, the model is applied to two case studies: a disruption of the seaports of Los Angeles and Long Beach (LA and LB) similar to the impacts that would be felt in an earthquake; and implementation of new user fees at the California ports.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2016

Nuclear security policy in the context of counter-terrorism in Cambodia

The risk of nuclear or dirty bomb attack by terrorists is one of the most urgent and threatening danger. The Cambodian national strategy to combat weapons of mass destruction (WMD) depicts a layered system of preventive measures ranging from securing materials at foreign sources to interdicting weapons or nuclear or other radioactive materials at ports, border crossings, and within the Cambodian institutions dealing with the nuclear security to manage the preventive programs. The aim of this study is to formulate guidance, to identify scenario of threat and risk, and to pinpoint necessary legal frameworks on nuclear security in the context of counterterrorism based on the International Atomic Energy Agency nuclear security series. The analysis of this study is guided by theoretical review, the review of international laws and politics, by identifying and interpreting applicable rules and norms establishing the nuclear security regime and how well enforcement of the regime is carried out and, what is the likelihood of the future reform might be. This study will examine the existing national legal frameworks of Cambodia in the context of counterterrorism to prevent acts of nuclear terrorism and the threat of a terrorist nuclear attack within the Cambodia territory. It will shed light on departmental lanes of national nuclear security responsibility, and provide a holistic perspective on the needs of additional resources and emphasis regarding nuclear security policy in the context of counterterrorism in Cambodia.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2024

Integration of scanning probe microscope with high-performance computing: Fixed-policy and reward-driven workflows implementation

The rapid development of computation power and machine learning algorithms has paved the way for automating scientific discovery with a scanning probe microscope (SPM). The key elements toward operationalization of the automated SPM are the interface to enable SPM control from Python codes, availability of high computing power, and development of workflows for scientific discovery. Here, we build a Python interface library that enables controlling an SPM from either a local computer or a remote high-performance computer, which satisfies the high computation power need of machine learning algorithms in autonomous workflows. We further introduce a general platform to abstract the operations of SPM in scientific discovery into fixed-policy or reward-driven workflows. Furthermore, our work provides a full infrastructure to build automated SPM workflows for both routine operations and autonomous scientific discovery with machine learning.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Technology progress and clean vehicle policies on fleet turnover and equity: insights from household vehicle fleet micro-simulations with $\text{ATLAS}$

This paper documents the design and application of ATLAS (Automobile and Technology Lifecycle-Based ASsignment), a comprehensive household vehicle transaction and technology adoption micro-simulator in the San Francisco Bay Area. ATLAS evolves the fleet mix of individual households by simulating the vehicle transaction and choice decisions in response to co-evolving demographics, land use, and vehicle technology simulations. While most existing literature has focused on the aggregate clean vehicle uptake, this paper differentiates distributional effects and decomposes the underlying mechanisms across heterogeneous sub-populations of households. Using scenarios and sensitivity simulations that vary vehicle technology and policy assumptions, we find that Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEVs) penetrate into higher income groups at a faster rate than into lower income groups, which is intuitive and aligns with expectations. Interestingly, the relative income disparity in ZEV ownership shrinks over time across all scenarios, with a ZEV mandate coupled with declining battery cost leading to the greatest reduction in disparity of ZEV ownership by 2050. Federal, state, and local financial incentives influence the redistribution of ZEV uptake across income groups and contribute to narrowing income disparity. Vehicle transaction frequency and new versus used market dynamics are found to be important factors contributing to the income disparity.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2018

A Publicly Available Landscape Analysis Tool for Biodefense Policy

Outbreaks of infectious diseases, coupled with an increasing biological threat from non-state actors, highlight the continued need to prioritize biodefense. The Blue Ribbon Panel on Biodefense has noted that the US remains ‘underprepared’ for a catastrophic biological attack or pandemic and emphasized increased coordination is essential. Consistent with this recommendation, the FY17 National Defense Authorization Act tasked the Secretaries of Defense, Health and Human Services, Homeland Security, and Agriculture to “jointly develop a national biodefense strategy and associated implementation plan, which shall include a review and assessment of biodefense policies, practices, programs and initiatives.”

Omberg, Kristin M.↗