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At least 559 records · Page 31

Soil Respiration Response to Simulated Precipitation Change Depends on Ecosystem Type and Study Duration

Soil respiration—the flow of biologically-generated CO 2 from the soil surface to the atmosphere—is a major component of global carbon cycling, but the long-term response of this flux to altered precipitation regimes remains uncertain, due to different responses of soil respiration in distinct ecosystems with varying degrees of water limitation. We conducted a meta-analysis to determine the role of soil characteristics (organic carbon stock and clay content), study duration, and ecosystem type (e.g., forest, grassland, etc) in modifying the response of soil respiration to precipitation change. In general, decreased precipitation (N = 128 effect size pairs) decreased soil respiration rates. In contrast, increased precipitation (N = 141) had a more variable and on-average weak positive effect on this flux; significantly increasing soil respiration only in desert ecosystems. The long-term response of ecosystems varied, with those that are less constrained by water-availability (e.g., forests) showing acclimation over time to altered precipitation. Soil organic carbon stock strongly modified the response of soil respiration to decreased precipitation (p < 0.0001), but only weakly modified the response to increased precipitation (p < 0.01). Our results suggest that ecosystems with limited soil water-holding capacity and strong inherent water-limitation will show long-term dynamic change in soil respiration regardless of the direction of precipitation change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing impacts of PBL and surface layer schemes in simulating the surface–atmosphere interactions and precipitation over the tropical ocean using observations from AMIE/DYNAMO

Accuracy of turbulence parameterization in representing Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) processes in climate models is critical for predicting the initiation and development of clouds, air quality issues, and underlying surface-atmosphere-cloud interactions. In this study, we 1) evaluate WRF model-simulated spatial patterns of precipitation and surface fluxes, as well as vertical profiles of potential temperature, humidity, moist static energy and moisture tendency terms as simulated by WRF at various spatial resolutions and with PBL, surface layer and shallow convection schemes against measurements, 2) identify model biases by examining the moisture tendency terms contributed by PBL and convection processes through nudging experiments, and 3) evaluate the dependence of modeled surface latent heat (LH) fluxes onPBL and surface layer schemes over the tropical ocean. The results show that PBL and surface parameterizations have surprisingly large impacts on precipitation, convection initiation and surface moisture fluxes over tropical oceans. All of the parameterizations tested tend to overpredict moisture in PBL and free atmosphere, and consequently result in larger moist static energy and precipitation. Moisture nudging tends to suppress the initiation of convection and reduces the excess precipitation. The reduction in precipitation bias in turn reduces the surface wind and LH flux biases, which suggests that the model drifts at least partly because of a positive feedback between precipitation and surface fluxes. The updated shallow convection scheme KF-CuP tends to suppress the initiation and development of deep convection, consequently decreasing precipitation. The Eta surface layer scheme predicts more reasonable LH fluxes and the LH-Wind Speed relationship than the MM5 scheme, especially when coupled with the MYJ scheme. By examining various parameterization schemes in WRF, we identify sources of biases and weaknesses of current PBL, surface layer and shallow convection schemes in reproducing PBL processes, the initiation of convection and intra-seasonal variability of precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Thermodynamic versus Dynamic Controls on Extreme Precipitation in a Warming Climate from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble

The moisture budget is evaluated as a function of the probability distribution of precipitation for the end of the twentieth century and projected end of the twenty-first century in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble. For a given precipitation percentile, a conditional moisture budget equation relates precipitation minus evaporation ( P − E) to vertical moisture transport, horizontal moisture advection, and moisture storage. At high percentiles, moisture advection and moisture storage cancel and evaporation is negligible, so that precipitation is approximately equal to vertical moisture transport, and likewise for projected changes. Therefore, projected changes to extreme precipitation are approximately equal to the sum of thermodynamic and dynamic tendencies, representing changes to the vertical profiles of moisture content and mass convergence, respectively. The thermodynamic tendency is uniform across percentiles and regions as an intensification of the hydrological cycle, but the dynamic tendency is more complex. For extreme events, per degree of warming, in the mid-to-high latitudes the dynamic tendency is small, so that precipitation approximately scales by the Clausius–Clapeyron 7% K −1 increase. In the subtropics, a drying tendency originating from dynamics offsets the thermodynamic wetting tendency, with the net effect on precipitation varying among regions. The effect of this dynamic drying decreases with increasing percentile. In the deep tropics, a positive dynamic tendency occurs with magnitude similar to or greater than the positive thermodynamic tendency, resulting in generally a 10%–15% K −1 precipitation increase, and with a >25% K −1 increase over the tropical east Pacific. This reinforcing dynamical tendency increases rapidly for high percentiles.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Unified Interpretation of Variability in Precipitation Isotope Ratios

Abstract Several mechanisms have been proposed to explain why the isotope ratios of precipitation vary in space and time and why they correlate with other climate variables like temperature and precipitation. Here, we argue that this behavior is best understood through the lens of radiative transfer, which treats the depletion of atmospheric vapor transport by precipitation as analogous to the attenuation of light by absorption or scattering. Building on earlier work by Siler et al., we introduce a simple model that uses the equations of radiative transfer to approximate the two-dimensional pattern of the oxygen isotope composition of precipitation ( δ p ) from monthly mean hydrologic variables. The model accurately simulates the spatial and seasonal variability in δ p within a state-of-the-art climate model and permits a simple decomposition of δ p variability into contributions from gradients in evaporation and the length scale of vapor transport. Outside the tropics, δ p is mostly controlled by gradients in evaporation, whose dependence on temperature explains the positive correlation between δ p and temperature (i.e., the temperature effect). At low latitudes, δ p is mostly controlled by gradients in the transport length scale, whose inverse relationship with precipitation explains the negative correlation between δ p and precipitation (i.e., the amount effect). This suggests that the temperature and amount effects are both mostly explained by the variability in upstream rainout, but they reflect distinct mechanisms governing rainout at different latitudes. Significance Statement The isotopic composition of precipitation has long been used to make inferences about past climates based on its observed relationship with precipitation in the tropics and with temperature at higher latitudes. These relationships—known as the “amount effect” and “temperature effect,” respectively—have been attributed to many different mechanisms, most of which are thought to operate at either high or low latitudes but not both. Here, we present a unified framework for interpreting the isotope variability that can explain the latitude dependence of the temperature and amount effects despite making no distinction between high and low latitudes. Although our results are generally consistent with certain interpretations of the amount effect, they suggest that the temperature effect is widely misunderstood.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Intermittency in Precipitation: Duration, Frequency, Intensity, and Amounts Using Hourly Data

Abstract Intermittency is a core characteristic of precipitation, not well described by data and very poorly modeled. Detailed analyses are made of near-global gridded (about 1°) hourly or 3-hourly precipitation rates from two updated observational datasets [3-hourly TRMM 3B42, version 7, and hourly CMORPH, version 1.0, bias corrected (CRT)] and from special runs of CESM from January 1998 to December 2013 to obtain hourly values. The analyses explore the intermittency of precipitation: the frequency, intensity, duration, and amounts. A comparison is made for all products using several metrics with a focus on the duration of events, and a new metric is proposed based on the ratio of the frequency of precipitation at certain rates (0.2–2 mm h−1) for hourly versus 3-hourly versus daily data. For all seasons and rain rates, TRMM values are similar in pattern to CMORPH, but durations are about 80%–85%. It is mainly over land in the monsoons that CMORPH exceeds TRMM rain durations. Observed duration of precipitation events in CMORPH over oceans are 12–15 h in the tropics and subtropics, much less than the ~20 h for CESM. Hence, the observational results differ somewhat but both are considerably different from the model, which has too much precipitation overall, and it precipitates far too often at low rates and not enough for intense rates, with the divide about 1–2 mm h−1. There is a need to properly represent precipitation phenomena and processes either explicitly or implicitly (parameterized).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

PERSIANN Dynamic Infrared–Rain Rate (PDIR-Now): A Near-Real-Time, Quasi-Global Satellite Precipitation Dataset

This study presents the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks–Dynamic Infrared Rain Rate (PDIR-Now) near-real-time precipitation dataset. This dataset provides hourly, quasi-global, infrared-based precipitation estimates at 0.04° × 0.04° spatial resolution with a short latency (15–60 min). It is intended to supersede the PERSIANN–Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS) dataset previously produced as the near-real-time product of the PERSIANN family. We first provide a brief description of the algorithm’s fundamentals and the input data used for deriving precipitation estimates. Second, we provide an extensive evaluation of the PDIR-Now dataset over annual, monthly, daily, and subdaily scales. Last, the article presents information on the dissemination of the dataset through the Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing (CHRS) web-based interfaces. The evaluation, conducted over the period 2017–18, demonstrates the utility of PDIR-Now and its improvement over PERSIANN-CCS at all temporal scales. Specifically, PDIR-Now improves the estimation of rain/no-rain days as demonstrated by a critical success index (CSI) of 0.53 compared to 0.47 of PERSIANN-CCS. In addition, PDIR-Now improves the estimation of seasonal and diurnal cycles of precipitation as well as regional precipitation patterns erroneously estimated by PERSIANN-CCS. Finally, an evaluation is carried out to examine the performance of PDIR-Now in capturing two extreme events, Hurricane Harvey and a cluster of summer thunderstorms that occurred over the Netherlands, where it is shown that PDIR-Now adequately represents spatial precipitation patterns as well as subdaily precipitation rates with a correlation coefficient (CORR) of 0.64 for Hurricane Harvey and 0.76 for the Netherlands thunderstorms.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Caustic Precipitation of Plutonium and Uranium with Gadolinium as a Neutron Poison

Here, the caustic precipitation of plutonium (Pu) and uranium (U) from Pu and U containing waste solutions has been investigated to determine whether gadolinium (Gd) could be used as a neutron poison for precipitation with greater than a fissile mass containing both Pu and enriched U. Precipitation experiments were performed using both actual samples and simulant solutions with a range of 2.6-5.16 g/L U and 0-4.3 to 1 U to Pu. Analyses were performed on solutions at intermediate pH to determine the partitioning of elements for accident scenarios. When both Pu and U were present in the solution, precipitation began at pH 4.5 and by pH 7, 99% of Pu and U had precipitated. When complete neutralization was achieved at pH greater than 14 with 1.2 M excess OH - , greater than 99% of Pu, U, and Gd had precipitated. At pH greater than 14, the particles sizes were larger and the distribution was a single mode. The ratio of hydrogen to fissile atoms in the precipitate was determined after both settling and centrifuging and indicates that sufficient water was associated with the precipitates to provide the needed neutron moderation for Gd to prevent a criticality in solutions containing up to 4.3 to 1 U to Pu and up to 5.16 g/L U.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Small-Scale Testing of Plutonium(IV) Oxalate Precipitation and Calcination to Plutonium Oxide to Support the MOX Feed Mission

The H-Canyon facility will be used to dissolve Pu metal for subsequent purification and conversion to plutonium dioxide (PuO 2 ) using Phase II of HB-Line. To support the new mission, SRNL conducted a series of experiments to produce calcined plutonium (Pu) oxide and measure the physical properties and water adsorption of that material. This data will help define the process operating conditions and material handling steps for HB-Line. An anion exchange column experiment produced 1.4 L of a purified 52.6 g/L Pu solution. Over the next nine weeks, seven Pu(IV) oxalate precipitations were performed using the same stock Pu solution, with precipitator feed acidities ranging from 0.77 M to 3.0 M nitric acid and digestion times ranging from 5 to 30 minutes. Analysis of precipitator filtrate solutions showed Pu losses below 1% for all precipitations. The four larger precipitation batches matched the target oxalic acid addition time of 44 minutes within 4 minutes. The three smaller precipitation batches focused on evaluation of digestion time and the oxalic acid addition step ranged from 25-34 minutes because of pump limitations in the low flow range. Following the precipitations, 22 calcinations were performed in the range of 610 – 690 °C, with the largest number of samples calcined at either 650 or 635 °C. Characterization of the resulting PuO 2 batches showed specific surface areas in the range of 5-14 m 2 /g, with 16 of the 22 samples in the range of 5-10 m 2 /g. For samples analyzed with typical handling (exposed to ambient air for 15-45 minutes with relative humidities of 20-55%), the moisture content as measured by Mass Spectrometry ranged from 0.15 to 0.45 wt % and the total mass loss at 1000 °C, as measured by TGA, ranged from 0.21 to 0.58 wt %. For the samples calcined between 635 and 650 °C, the moisture content without extended exposure ranged from 0.20 to 0.38 wt %, and the TGA mass loss ranged from 0.26 to 0.46 wt %. Of these latter samples, the samples calcined at 650 °C generally had lower specific surface areas and lower moisture contents than the samples calcined at 635 °C, which matches expectations from the literature. Taken together, the TGA-MS results for samples handled at nominally 20-50% RH, without extended exposure, indicate that the Pu(IV) oxalate precipitation process followed by calcination at 635-650 °C appears capable of producing PuO 2 with moisture content < 0.5 wt % as required by the 3013 Standard. Exposures of PuO 2 samples to ambient air for 3 or more hours generally showed modest mass gains that were primarily gains in moisture content. These results point to the need for a better understanding of the moisture absorption of PuO 2 and serve as a warning that extended exposure times, particularly above the 50% RH level observed in this study will make the production of PuO 2 with less than 0.5 wt % moisture more challenging. Samples analyzed in this study generally contained approximately 2 monolayer equivalents of moisture. In this study, the bulk of the moisture released from samples below 300 °C, as did a significant portion of the CO 2 . Samples in this study consistently released a minor amount of NO in the 40-300 °C range, but no samples released CO or SO 2 . TGA-MS results also showed that MS moisture content accounted for 80±8% of the total mass loss at 1000 °C measured by the TGA. The PuO 2 samples produced had particles sizes that typically ranged from 0.2 – 88 μm, with the mean particle size ranging from 6.4 – 9.3 μm. The carbon content of ten different calcination batches ranged from 190-480 μg C/g Pu, with an average value of 290 μg C/g Pu.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Conditional Generative Adversarial Networks (cGANs) for Near Real-Time Precipitation Estimation from Multispectral GOES-16 Satellite Imageries—PERSIANN-cGAN

In this paper, we present a state-of-the-art precipitation estimation framework which leverages advances in satellite remote sensing as well as Deep Learning (DL). The framework takes advantage of the improvements in spatial, spectral and temporal resolutions of the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) onboard the GOES-16 platform along with elevation information to improve the precipitation estimates. The procedure begins by first deriving a Rain/No Rain (R/NR) binary mask through classification of the pixels and then applying regression to estimate the amount of rainfall for rainy pixels. A Fully Convolutional Network is used as a regressor to predict precipitation estimates. The network is trained using the non-saturating conditional Generative Adversarial Network (cGAN) and Mean Squared Error (MSE) loss terms to generate results that better learn the complex distribution of precipitation in the observed data. Common verification metrics such as Probability Of Detection (POD), False Alarm Ratio (FAR), Critical Success Index (CSI), Bias, Correlation and MSE are used to evaluate the accuracy of both R/NR classification and real-valued precipitation estimates. Statistics and visualizations of the evaluation measures show improvements in the precipitation retrieval accuracy in the proposed framework compared to the baseline models trained using conventional MSE loss terms. This framework is proposed as an augmentation for PERSIANN-CCS (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Network- Cloud Classification System) algorithm for estimating global precipitation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Black Carbon and Precipitation: an Energetics Perspective

Black carbon aerosols (BC) influence precipitation through a range of processes. The climate response to the presence of BC is however highly dependent on its vertical distribution. Here, we analyze the changes in the energy budget and precipitation impacts of adding a layer of BC at a range of altitudes in two independent global climate models. The models are run with atmosphere‐only and slab ocean model setup to analyze both fast and slow responses, respectively. Globally, precipitation changes are tightly coupled to the energy budget. We decompose the precipitation change into contributions from absorption of solar radiation, atmospheric longwave radiative cooling, and sensible heat flux at the surface. We find that for atmosphere‐only simulations, BC rapidly suppress precipitation, independent of altitude, mainly because of strong atmospheric absorption. This reduction is offset by increased atmospheric radiative longwave cooling and reduced sensible heat flux at the surface, but not of sufficient magnitude to prevent reduced precipitation. On longer timescales, when the surface temperature is allowed to respond, we find that the precipitation increase associated with surface warming can compensate for the initial reduction, particularly for BC in the lower atmosphere. Even though the underlying processes are strikingly similar in the two models, the resulting change in precipitation and temperature by BC differ quite substantially.

black carbon aerosols↗

Linkage among Ice Crystal Microphysics, Mesoscale Dynamics and Cloud and Precipitation Structures Revealed By Collocated Microwave Radiometer and Multi-Frequency Radar Observations

Ice clouds and falling snow are ubiquitous globally and play important roles in the Earth’s radiation budget and precipitation processes. Ice particle microphysical properties (e.g., size, habit and orientation) are not only influenced by ambient environment’s dynamic and thermodynamic conditions, but also intimately connect to the cloud radiative effects and particle fall speeds, which therefore impact up to the future climate projection and down to the details of the surface precipitation (e.g., onset-time, location, type and strength). Our previous work revealed that high-frequency Polarimetric radiance Difference (PD) from passive microwave sensors is a good indicator of the bulk aspect ratio of horizontally oriented ice particles that are often occur inside anvil clouds and/or stratiform precipitations. In this current work, we further investigate the dynamic/thermodynamic mechanisms and cloud/precipitation structures associated with ice-phase microphysics corresponding to different PD signals. In order to do so, collocated CloudSat radar (W-band) and Global Precipitation Measurement Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (GPM-DPR, Ku/Ka bands) observations as well as European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) atmosphere background profiles are grouped according to the magnitude of PD for only stratiform precipitation and/or anvil cloud scenes. We found that horizontally-oriented snow aggregates or large snow particles are likely the major contributor to the high-PD signals at 166 GHz, while low-PD magnitudes can be attributed to small cloud ice, randomly oriented snow aggregates, riming snow or super-cooled water. Further, high (low) PD scenes are found to be associated with stronger (weaker) wind shear and higher (lower) ambient humidity, both of which help promote (prohibit) the growth of frozen particles and the organization of convective systems. An ensemble of squall line cases is studied at the end to demonstrate that the PD asymmetry in the leading and trailing edges of the deep convection line is closely tied to the anvil cloud and stratiform precipitation layers respectively, suggesting the potential usefulness of PD as a proxy of stratiform/convective precipitation flag, as well as a proxy of convection life stage.

Ice crystal microphysics↗

The Prevalence of Precipitation from Polar Supercooled Clouds

Supercooled clouds substantially impact polar surface energy budgets but large-scale models often underestimate their occurrence, which motivates accurately establishing metrics of basic processes. An analysis of long-term measurements at Utqiaġvik, Alaska, and McMurdo Station, Antarctica, combines lidar-validated use of soundings to identify supercooled cloud layers and colocated ground-based profiling radar measurements to quantify cloud base precipitation. We find that more than 85 % (75 %) of sampled supercooled layers are precipitating over the Arctic (Antarctic) site, with more than 75 % (50 %) precipitating continuously to the surface. Such high frequencies can be reconciled with substantially lesser spaceborne estimates by considering differences in radar hydrometeor detection sensitivity. While ice precipitation into supercooled clouds from aloft is common, we also find that the great majority of supercooled cloud layers without ice falling into them are themselves continuously generating precipitation. Such sustained primary ice formation is consistent with continuous activation of immersion-mode ice nucleating particles (INPs), suggesting that supercooled cloud formation is a principal gateway to ice formation at temperatures greater than ~ −38 °C over polar regions. The prevalence of weak precipitation fluxes is also consistent with supercooled cloud longevity, and with well-observed and widely simulated case studies. An analysis of colocated microwave radiometer retrievals suggests that weak precipitation fluxes can be nonetheless consequential to moisture budgets for supercooled clouds owing to small liquid water paths. Finally, we suggest that these ground-based precipitation rate statistics offer valuable guidance for improving the representation of polar cloud processes in large-scale models.

Polar clouds↗

The Prevalence of Precipitation From Polar Supercooled Clouds

Supercooled clouds substantially impact polar surface energy budgets, but large-scale models often underestimate their occurrence, which motivates accurately establishing metrics of basic processes. An analysis of long-term measurements at Utqiaġvik, Alaska, and McMurdo Station, Antarctica, combines lidar-validated use of soundings to identify supercooled cloud layers and colocated ground-based profiling radar measurements to quantify cloud base precipitation. We find that more than 85 % (75 %) of sampled supercooled layers are precipitating over the Arctic (Antarctic) site, with more than 75 % (50 %) precipitating continuously to the surface. Such high frequencies can be reconciled with substantially lesser spaceborne estimates by considering differences in radar hydrometeor detection sensitivity. While ice precipitation into supercooled clouds from aloft is common, we also find that the great majority of supercooled cloud layers without ice falling into them are themselves continuously generating precipitation. Such sustained primary ice formation is consistent with continuous activation of immersion-mode ice-nucleating particles (INPs), suggesting that supercooled cloud formation is a principal gateway to ice formation at temperatures greater than ∼−38 ∘C over polar regions. The prevalence of weak precipitation fluxes is also consistent with supercooled cloud longevity and with well-observed and widely simulated case studies. An analysis of colocated microwave radiometer retrievals suggests that weak precipitation fluxes can be nonetheless consequential to moisture budgets for supercooled clouds owing to small liquid water paths. The results here also demonstrate that the observed abundance of mixed-phase clouds can vary substantially with instrument sensitivity and methodology. Finally, we suggest that these ground-based precipitation rate statistics offer valuable guidance for improving the representation of polar cloud processes in large-scale models.

Supercooled clouds↗

PERSIANN Dynamic Infrared–Rain Rate (PDIR-Now): A Near-Real-Time, Quasi-Global Satellite Precipitation Dataset

This study presents the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks–Dynamic Infrared Rain Rate (PDIR-Now) near-real-time precipitation dataset. This dataset provides hourly, quasi-global, infrared-based precipitation estimates at 0.04° × 0.04° spatial resolution with a short latency (15–60 min). It is intended to supersede the PERSIANN–Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS) dataset previously produced as the near-real-time product of the PERSIANN family. We first provide a brief description of the algorithm’s fundamentals and the input data used for deriving precipitation estimates. Second, we provide an extensive evaluation of the PDIR-Now dataset over annual, monthly, daily, and subdaily scales. Last, the article presents information on the dissemination of the dataset through the Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing (CHRS) web-based interfaces. The evaluation, conducted over the period 2017–18, demonstrates the utility of PDIR-Now and its improvement over PERSIANN-CCS at all temporal scales. Specifically, PDIR-Now improves the estimation of rain/no-rain days as demonstrated by a critical success index (CSI) of 0.53 compared to 0.47 of PERSIANN-CCS. In addition, PDIR-Now improves the estimation of seasonal and diurnal cycles of precipitation as well as regional precipitation patterns erroneously estimated by PERSIANN-CCS. Finally, an evaluation is carried out to examine the performance of PDIR-Now in capturing two extreme events, Hurricane Harvey and a cluster of summer thunderstorms that occurred over the Netherlands, where it is shown that PDIR-Now adequately represents spatial precipitation patterns as well as subdaily precipitation rates with a correlation coefficient (CORR) of 0.64 for Hurricane Harvey and 0.76 for the Netherlands thunderstorms.

Rainfall↗

Detecting the Greatest Changes in Global Satellite-Based Precipitation Observations

In recent years, the analysis of abrupt and non-abrupt changes in precipitation has received much attention due to the importance of climate change-related issues (e.g., extreme climate events). In this study, we used a novel segmentation algorithm, DBEST (Detecting Breakpoints and Estimating Segments in Trend), to analyze the greatest changes in precipitation using a monthly pixel-based satellite precipitation dataset (TRMM 3B43) at three different scales: (i) global, (ii) continental, and (iii) climate zone, during the 1998–2019 period. We found significant breakpoints, 14.1%, both in the form of abrupt and non-abrupt changes, in the global scale precipitation at the 0.05 significance level. Most of the abrupt changes were observed near the Equator in the Pacific Ocean and Asian continent, relative to the rest of the globe. Most detected breakpoints occurred during the 1998–1999 and 2009–2011 periods on the global scale. The average precipitation change for the detected breakpoint was ±100 mm, with some regions reaching ±3000 mm. For instance, most portions of northern Africa and Asia experienced major changes of approximately +100 mm. In contrast, most of the South Pacific and South Atlantic Ocean experienced changes of −100 mm during the studied period. Our findings indicated that the larger areas of Africa (23.9%), Asia (22.9%), and Australia (15.4%) experienced significant precipitation breakpoints compared to North America (11.6%), South America (9.3%), Europe (8.3%), and Oceania (9.6%). Furthermore, we found that the majority of detected significant breakpoints occurred in the arid (31.6%) and polar (24.1%) climate zones, while the least significant breakpoints were found for snow-covered (11.5%), equatorial (7.5%), and warm temperate (7.7%) climate zones. Positive breakpoints’ temporal coverage in the arid (54.0%) and equatorial (51.9%) climates were more than those in other climates zones. Here, the findings indicated that large areas of Africa and Asia experienced significant changes in precipitation (−250 to +250 mm). Compared to the average state (trend during a specific period), the greatest changes in precipitation were more abrupt and unpredictable, which might impose a severe threat to the ecology, environment, and natural resources.

Breakpoint↗

Newly Released GPCP Version 3.2 Global Precipitation Datasets at NASA GES DISC

The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is the precipitation component of an internationally coordinated set of (mainly) satellite-based global products dealing with the Earth's water and energy cycles, under the auspices of the Global Water and Energy Experiment (GEWEX) Data and Assessment Panel (GDAP) of the World Climate Research Program. As the follow-on to the GPCP Version 2.X products, GPCP Version 3 (GPCP V3.2) seeks to continue the production of long, homogeneous precipitation record using modern input and calibration datasets. The GPCP V3.2 provides globally complete analyses of surface precipitation on a 0.5°x 0.5° latitude/longitude grid at both monthly and daily intervals, respectively covering 1983 to the present and June 2000 to the present. New data fields have been introduced to better characterize the precipitation, particularly including an estimate of the fraction of the precipitation that is liquid (rain) in both the Monthly and Daily, and a Quality Index for the Monthly. Compared to the operational GPCP V2.3 Monthly, the V3.2 Monthly provides a more reasonable climatology in the Southern Ocean, and increases the global average precipitation by about 4.46%, which is in line with recommendations of recent assessments. However, the two versions have comparable global and regional trends for 1983-2020. Compared to the operational One-Degree Daily (Version 1.3) product, the V3.2 Daily better represents the histogram of precipitation rates, particularly at high values. In this presentation, we will present the latest GPCP V3.2 daily and monthly datasets archived and distributed at NASA Goddard Earth Sciences (GES) Data and Information Services Center (DISC) along with examples from NASA Giovanni.

Precipitation↗

Representing the Sub-Grid Heterogeneity of Surface Precipitation in A General Circulation Model

Precipitation variability on spatial scales smaller than a typical general circulation model (GCM) grid box is often neglected, with the grid-mean precipitation rate being applied uniformly to underlying surface tiles. This reduces the extrema seen by the surface, with corresponding reductions in surface runoff and altered land-atmosphere fluxes. Here we present a novel approach to stochastically distribute precipitation across sub-grid surface tiles within a GCM. Based on 4 km Stage IV precipitation data, the scheme parameterizes the dry area fraction as a function of grid mean precipitation rate, and defines the relative distribution of intensities across non-dry surface tiles. To incorporate memory and mimic the persistence of precipitating storms, the relative intensity assigned to each sub-grid tile is determined by an autoregressive process. Using single column experiments, the scheme is shown to reproduce observed precipitation statistics at the scale of model surface tiles. We also document impacts on surface hydrology and energy partitioning, with notable increases in precipitation runoff, surface temperature variance, and the Bowen ratio.

GCM↗

Robustness of Gridded Precipitation Products for Vietnam Basins using the Comprehensive Assessment Framework of Rainfall

The use of satellite–based precipitation products (SPPs) have become increasingly prevalent as key inputs to provide regional rainfall for improving hydrological simulations in data–spare regions. This study introduces a new approach – Comprehensive Assessment Framework of Rainfall (CAFR) to evaluate six satellite–based precipitation products (SPPs) for eleven basins with different sizes across Vietnam (2007–2015). These SPPs include the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement Final run Version 6 (GPM IMERGF V6), Multi–Source Weighted–Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP) V2.2, Soil Moisture to Rain (SM2RAIN) – Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT) V1.5, Asian Precipitation–Highly–Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation (APHRODITE) V1901, Climate Hazards group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) V2.0, and Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN) – Climate Data Record (CDR) V1.0. With the proposed CAFR: (1) IMERGF is suggested to have the best performance overall, especially when simulating flood peaks; (2) SM2RAIN–ASCAT demonstrates the best skills in metrics related to the dry season; (3) For streamflow simulations, SPPs' performance is sensitive to basin size, with larger basins showing better performance skills. In this study, we demonstrate the capability of our proposed framework to better understand SPP applications in hydrological modeling.

Comprehensive Assessment Framework of Rainfall (CA↗