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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

The Evolving Role of Extreme Weather Events in the U.S. Power System with High Levels of Variable Renewable Energy

As weather-dependent renewable generation grows, it is important for power system planning to understand the broad trends and correlations between weather, renewable resources, and load. The traditional planning, performed by utilities and system operators, includes the study of system resource adequacy during peak load periods in the summer and winter to ensure the generation and transmission system is appropriate to meet load. But in a power grid with a high penetration of variable renewable energy (i.e., wind and solar), periods of high risk to system resource adequacy may no longer correspond only to hours of peak load. In particular, high shares of variable renewable energy, even when well-forecasted to inform system operations, can further complicate the stress extreme weather events already place on the grid. They also may lead to changes to the types of weather conditions that are most problematic to system operations and resource adequacy due to widespread and extended deficits of wind and solar generation. Accordingly, the focus of reliability assessments in long-term planning studies may need to evolve in the coming years to more fully incorporate weather events that lead to these deficits. This report seeks to identify these new weather events and understand the characteristics of the events that lead to system risk of future systems with higher penetrations variable renewable energy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS2004

An Evaluation of the Accuracy of Meteor Shower Forecasts

Brought into being by the recent Leonid meteor storms, meteor shower forecasts are now regarded by many spacecraft projects as necessary inputs into the planning of spacecraft operations. We compare the shower forecasts made by various researchers over the past six years to actual shower observations in an attempt to create an overall picture of forecast accuracy, specifically focusing on the three aspects most important to space vehicles: 1) the time of shower maximum, 2) the half-width (duration), and 3) the maximum Zenith Hourly Rate (ZHR). It will be noted that, while the times of maxima are generally predicted to within several minutes, the peak ZHRs are often overestimated and shower half-widths are frequently not even calculated. The difficulties involved in converting shower ZHRs into the meteoroid fluxes needed to assess spacecraft risk are also discussed.

Cooke, W.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Exploration of OMI Products for Air Quality Applications Through Comparisons with Models and Observations

The Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on board NASA s Aura satellite was launched in July 2004, and is now providing daily global observations of total column ozone, NO2, and SO2, as well as aerosol information. Algorithms have also been developed to produce daily tropospheric ozone and NO2 products. The tropospheric ozone product reported here is a tropospheric residual computed through use of Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) ozone profile data to quantify stratospheric ozone. We are investigating the applicability of OMI products for use in air quality modeling, forecasting, and analysis. These investigations include comparison of the OMI tropospheric O3 and NO2 products with global and regional models and with lower tropospheric aircraft observations. Large-scale transport of pollution seen in the OM1 tropospheric O3 data is compared with output from NASA's Global Modeling Initiative global chemistry and transport model. On the regional scale we compare the OMI tropospheric O3 and NO2 with fields from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Environmental Protection Agency (NOAA/EPA) operational Eta/CMAQ air quality forecasting model over the eastern United States. This 12-km horizontal resolution model output is roughly of equivalent resolution to the OMI pixel data. Correlation analysis between lower tropospheric aircraft O3 profile data taken by the University of Maryland over the Mid-Atlantic States and OMI tropospheric column mean volume mixing ratio for O3 will be presented. These aircraft data are representative of the lowest 3 kilometers of the atmosphere, the region in which much of the locally-generated and regionally-transported ozone exists.

Pickering, K. E.↗
DOE OSTI2023

A hybrid data-driven and model-based approach for computationally efficient stochastic unit commitment and economic dispatch under wind and solar uncertainty

Stochastic unit commitment (UC) and economic dispatch (ED) are imperative in dealing with uncertainty in renewable forecast for power system operation and planning such that the overall expected production cost is minimized over the planning horizon. However, accurate calculation of the expected production cost requires assessment of a very large number of different scenarios of uncertain renewable resources, such as solar and wind, which is practically infeasible to simulate in real time. This article proposes a hybrid datadriven and physics-based model-predictive paradigm to efficiently solve for stochastic unit commitment and economic dispatch considering uncertainty in wind and solar power forecasts. Here, the novelty of the approach lies in decoupling the production cost estimation from the unit commitment and economic dispatch optimization problems under uncertainty without compromising on the fidelity of the solutions. A data-driven machine learning model is first developed to predict the mean optimal production cost. A physics-based inverse problem is then solved to get the stochastic UC and ED profiles from the expected cost. The presented approach considers, for the first time, solar uncertainty in UC/ED determination and enables efficient and accurate propagation of wind and solar uncertainty to estimate the statistics of the production cost. The effectiveness of the developed approach is demonstrated systematically on a stylized RTS-GMLC single-node system. The overall framework predicts the expected cost 62.5% more accurately than the existing state-of-the-art, on unforeseen days during the entire year, and yields, for the first time, the associated physically consistent UC and ED profiles. The solutions are also shown to be flexible in providing adequate daily reserves to address any statistical deviations from probabilistic power forecasts. The computational time associated with the presented method is only about 10 s compared to over 24 h needed for a conventional stochastic UC/ED determination under uncertainty on an Intel Core i9 processor with 32 GB of RAM.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS2007

The Transition of NASA EOS Datasets to WFO Operations: A Model for Future Technology Transfer

The collocation of a National Weather Service (NWS) Forecast Office with atmospheric scientists from NASA/Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) in Huntsville, Alabama has afforded a unique opportunity for science sharing and technology transfer. Specifically, the NWS office in Huntsville has interacted closely with research scientists within the SPORT (Short-term Prediction and Research and Transition) Center at MSFC. One significant technology transfer that has reaped dividends is the transition of unique NASA EOS polar orbiting datasets into NWS field operations. NWS forecasters primarily rely on the AWIPS (Advanced Weather Information and Processing System) decision support system for their day to day forecast and warning decision making. Unfortunately, the transition of data from operational polar orbiters or low inclination orbiting satellites into AWIPS has been relatively slow due to a variety of reasons. The ability to integrate these high resolution NASA datasets into operations has yielded several benefits. The MODIS (MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectrometer ) instrument flying on the Aqua and Terra satellites provides a broad spectrum of multispectral observations at resolutions as fine as 250m. Forecasters routinely utilize these datasets to locate fine lines, boundaries, smoke plumes, locations of fog or haze fields, and other mesoscale features. In addition, these important datasets have been transitioned to other WFOs for a variety of local uses. For instance, WFO Great Falls Montana utilizes the MODIS snow cover product for hydrologic planning purposes while several coastal offices utilize the output from the MODIS and AMSR-E instruments to supplement observations in the data sparse regions of the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. In the short term, these datasets have benefited local WFOs in a variety of ways. In the longer term, the process by which these unique datasets were successfully transitioned to operations will benefit the planning and implementation of products and datasets derived from both NPP and NPOESS. This presentation will provide a brief overview of current WFO usage of satellite data, the transition of datasets between SPORT and the N W S , and lessons learned for future transition efforts.

Darden, C.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Application of quantitative risk assessment to address stakeholder questions in geologic carbon storage

Ambitious international greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets demand a rapid transformation to a low-carbon economy. This transformation includes the accelerated adoption of carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage (CCS) technology. However, as with any large-scale engineering enterprise, the widespread commercial-scale deployment of geologic carbon storage (GCS) raises important questions about technology and cost-effectiveness, safety, environmental risk, and long-term liability. Effectively assessing and managing risks and liability associated with GCS projects is a key technical need throughout the project life cycle-from site selection and permitting to monitoring design, operational risk management, and post-operational site closure. This presentation highlights recent advancements in tools for quantitative risk assessment, being developed by the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP). NRAP is a multi-year, multinational laboratory research collaboration sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management. Our focus will be on these tools' applications in addressing critical stakeholder questions related to supporting permitting to ensure secure and environmentally protective storage; designing effective and efficient monitoring plans; evaluating the effectiveness of remedial actions and risk management alternatives; and informing liability assessment and investment decisions. This paper will detail the key functionality of NRAP’s Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM), a computational framework for assessing leakage risk and containment assurance. This model features streamlined workflows for calculating leakage risk profiles, delineating risk-based area of review, and assessing contingency plans and post-injection site care requirements. ORION is an open-source, observation-based ensemble forecasting toolkit to help operators assess the seismic hazard at a carbon storage site. The State of Stress Analysis Tool (SOSAT), designed to assess subsurface stress conditions and evaluate geomechanical risk resulting from CO2 injection in an area of interest will also be presented. We will also introduce a prototype model to evaluate storage project costs and liability associated with risk management. The Technoeconomic and Liability Evaluation for Storage (TALES) model uses results from forecasts of leakage and induced seismicity risk to estimate the lifecycle cost of managing risk. Finally, a preliminary example of how the NRAP Risk-based Adaptive Monitoring Plan (RAMP) tool can be used to design efficient and effective site monitoring plans and estimate the detectability of fluid leakage will be provided. The relevance of these tools for addressing key stakeholder questions amidst uncertainty will be emphasized.

decision support↗
DOE OSTI2021

Connect the Dots: In Situ 4-D Seismic Monitoring of CO 2 Storage With Spatio-Temporal CNNs

4-D seismic imaging has been widely used in CO 2 sequestration projects to monitor the fluid flow in the volumetric subsurface region that is not sampled by wells. Ideally, real-time monitoring and near-future forecasting would provide site operators with great insights to understand the dynamics of the subsurface reservoir and assess any potential risks. However, due to obstacles such as high deployment cost, availability of acquisition equipment, exclusion zones around surface structures, only very sparse seismic imaging data can be obtained during monitoring. That leads to an unavoidable and growing knowledge gap over time. The operator needs to understand the fluid flow throughout the project lifetime and the seismic data are only available at a limited number of times. This is insufficient for understanding reservoir behavior. To overcome those challenges, we have developed spatio-temporal neural-network-based models that can produce high-fidelity interpolated or extrapolated images effectively and efficiently. Specifically, our models are built on an autoencoder, and incorporate the long short-term memory (LSTM) structure with a new loss function regularized by optical flow. We validate the performance of our models using real 4-D post-stack seismic imaging data acquired at the Sleipner CO 2 sequestration field. We employ two different strategies in evaluating our models. Numerically, we compare our models with different baseline approaches using classic pixel-based metrics. We also conduct a blind survey and collect a total of 20 responses from domain experts to evaluate the quality of data generated by our models. Finally, via both numerical and expert evaluation, we conclude that our models can produce high-quality 2-D/3-D seismic imaging data at a reasonable cost, offering the possibility of real-time monitoring or even near-future forecasting of the CO 2 storage reservoir.

4-D seismic imaging↗
NASA NTRS2021

Perspectives on flood forecast-based early action and opportunities for Earth observations

This paper seeks to identify opportunities to integrate Earth observations (EO) into flood forecast-based early action and propose future directions for research and collaboration between EO and humanitarian communities. Forecast-based early action (FbA) is an approach to shift disaster response toward anticipation to mitigate impacts to at-risk communities; however, timely and accurate information is needed in the development of data-based triggers and thresholds for action. Therefore, this paper considers the readiness of a wide range of EO for flood monitoring and forecasting in the design, operations, and evaluation phases of FbA. The most significant opportunities for EO to inform FbA efforts lie in the design and evaluation phases, as EO can aid in the development of impact-based triggers. The EO products most readily applicable include precipitation, streamflow estimates, and exposure mapping, and those requiring the greatest amount of further research include vulnerability and impact assessments. This paper identifies collaboration opportunities for the EO and humanitarian communities to create tailored products, such as overlays combining flood extents with exposure maps. Such collaboration opportunities can be fostered by open data sharing, data verification efforts, and incentives for supporting boundary organizations capable of enabling the use of EO for FbA.

disasters↗
NASA NTRS2005

Objective Lightning Forecasting at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station using Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System Data

The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) at Cape Canaveral Air-Force Station (CCAFS)ln Florida issues a probability of lightning occurrence in their daily 24-hour and weekly planning forecasts. This information is used for general planning of operations at CCAFS and Kennedy Space Center (KSC). These facilities are located in east-central Florida at the east end of a corridor known as 'Lightning Alley', an indication that lightning has a large impact on space-lift operations. Much of the current lightning probability forecast is based on a subjective analysis of model and observational data and an objective forecast tool developed over 30 years ago. The 45 WS requested that a new lightning probability forecast tool based on statistical analysis of more recent historical warm season (May-September) data be developed in order to increase the objectivity of the daily thunderstorm probability forecast. The resulting tool is a set of statistical lightning forecast equations, one for each month of the warm season, that provide a lightning occurrence probability for the day by 1100 UTC (0700 EDT) during the warm season.

Lambert, Winfred↗
DOE OSTI2024

Variational data augmentation for a learning-based granular predictive model of power outages

As the trend in climate change continues, extreme weather events are expected to occur with increasing frequency and severity and pose a significant threat to the electric power infrastructure. Regardless of the efforts a utility puts towards hardening the grid, storm-induced damage to the utility assets such as cables and distributed energy resources (DERs) that are particularly vulnerable to such events is unavoidable. Access to a highly granular, in space and time, outage forecasting tool with long lead times (i.e., days ahead) will enhance the efficiency of service restoration efforts. Here, in this study, we propose to develop and implement a multi-model framework as an operational tool based on a granular and multi-day outage forecasting model using operational numerical weather prediction model forecasts and detailed component outage information. An innovative two-layered recurrent neural network, i.e., a long-short-term-memory (LSTM)-based variational autoencoder (VAE) framework and a sliding window are used to address the uneven distribution of different types of weather events and make better use of the time-series data. Case studies are performed to demonstrate the performance of the new framework.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2013

Diagnosing Aircraft Icing Potential from Satellite Cloud Retrievals

The threat for aircraft icing in clouds is a significant hazard that routinely impacts aviation operations. Accurate diagnoses and forecasts of aircraft icing conditions requires identifying the location and vertical distribution of clouds with super-cooled liquid water (SLW) droplets, as well as the characteristics of the droplet size distribution. Traditional forecasting methods rely on guidance from numerical models and conventional observations, neither of which currently resolve cloud properties adequately on the optimal scales needed for aviation. Satellite imagers provide measurements over large areas with high spatial resolution that can be interpreted to identify the locations and characteristics of clouds, including features associated with adverse weather and storms. This paper describes new techniques for interpreting cloud products derived from satellite data to infer the flight icing threat to aircraft. For unobscured low clouds, the icing threat is determined using empirical relationships developed from correlations between satellite imager retrievals of liquid water path and droplet size with icing conditions reported by pilots (PIREPS). For deep ice over water cloud systems, ice and liquid water content (IWC and LWC) profiles are derived by using the imager cloud properties to constrain climatological information on cloud vertical structure and water phase obtained apriori from radar and lidar observations, and from cloud model analyses. Retrievals of the SLW content embedded within overlapping clouds are mapped to the icing threat using guidance from an airfoil modeling study. Compared to PIREPS and ground-based icing remote sensing datasets, the satellite icing detection and intensity accuracies are approximately 90% and 70%, respectively, and found to be similar for both low level and deep ice over water cloud systems. The satellite-derived icing boundaries capture the reported altitudes over 90% of the time. Satellite analyses corresponding to the time and location of several recent aviation accidents and with icing PIREPS are also presented that reveal skill in identifying severe icing conditions. These results demonstrate the utility of satellite cloud retrievals for quantitatively diagnosing the potential for icing conditions on temporal and spatial scales that should be useful to the aviation community. Plans are being developed to deliver these new satellite products to the GOES-R Proving Ground in the near future so that they can be evaluated in operational applications.

Smith, William L., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Vandenberg Air Force Base Pressure Gradient Wind Study

Warning category winds can adversely impact day-to-day space lift operations at Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) in California. NASA's Launch Services Program and other programs at VAFB use wind forecasts issued by the 30 Operational Support Squadron Weather Flight (30 OSSWF) to determine if they need to limit activities or protect property such as a launch vehicle. The 30 OSSWF tasked the AMU to develop an automated Excel graphical user interface that includes pressure gradient thresholds between specific observing stations under different synoptic regimes to aid forecasters when issuing wind warnings. This required the AMU to determine if relationships between the variables existed.

Shafer, Jaclyn A.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Important powertrain dynamics for developing models for control of connected and automated electrified vehicles

Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAV) technology presents significant opportunities for energy saving in the transportation sector. CAV technology forecasts vehicle and powertrain power needs under various terrain, ambient, and traffic conditions. Integration of the CAV technology in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) provides the opportunity for optimal vehicle operation. Indeed, Hybrid Electric Vehicle powertrains present high degrees of flexibility and possibility for choosing optimum powertrain modes based on the predicted traction power needs. In modeling complex CAV powertrain dynamics, the modeler needs to consider short-time scale powertrain dynamics, such as engine transients, and hysteresis of mode-switching for a multi-mode HEV. Therefore, the powertrain dynamics essential for developing powertrain controllers for a class of connected HEVs is presented. To this end, control-oriented powertrain dynamic models for a test vehicle consisting of full electric, hybrid, and conventional engine operating modes are developed. The resulting powertrain model can forecast vehicle traction torque and energy consumption for the specified prediction horizon of the test vehicle. The model considers different operating modes and associated energy penalty terms for mode switching. Thus, the vehicle controller can determine the optimum powertrain mode, torque, and speed for forecasted vehicle operation via utilizing connectivity data. The powertrain model is validated against the experimental data and shows prediction error of less than 5% for predicting vehicle energy consumption. The model is used to create energy penalty maps that can be used for CAV control, for example fuel penalty map for engine torque changes (10–40 Nm) at each engine speed. The results of model-based optimization show optimum switching delays ranging from 0.4 to 1.4 s to avoid hysteresis in mode switching.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2024

Time and Frequency Analysis of Load Profile Data

Technology advancements and integration of modern advanced metering systems can monitor, forecast, inform, control, and operate the building's mechanical, electrical, and plumbing (MEP) systems. They offer a higher level of information, which can contribute to making smart buildings more energy efficient and to making them closer to becoming grid-interactive energy efficient buildings (GEB). This paper builds on the ongoing research on variability analysis of a case study building with a 1-minute load profile and examines the Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) process in the frequency domain to quantify the signal's energy in each bandwidth, with respect to each end-use category. Moreover, the amount of variability in the total variability is not similar among the end-use categories. This information is needed to understand the behavior of the variability in the frequency domain for future applications, such as generating synthetic load profiles with a similar frequency spectrum as the measured signal.

decomposition↗
NASA NTRS1972

Aviation Forecasting in ICAO

Opinions or plans of qualified experts in the field are used for forecasting future requirements for air navigational facilities and services of international civil aviation. ICAO periodically collects information from Stators and operates on anticipated future operations, consolidates this information, and forecasts the future level of activity at different airports.

Mcmahon, J.↗
NASA NTRS1975

SEASAT economic assessment. Volume 3: Offshore oil and natural gas industry case study and generalization

The economic benefits of improved ocean condition, weather and ice forecasts by SEASAT satellites to the exploration, development and production of oil and natural gas in the offshore regions are considered. The results of case studies which investigate the effects of forecast accuracy on offshore operations in the North Sea, the Celtic Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico are reported. A methodology for generalizing the results to other geographic regions of offshore oil and natural gas exploration and development is described.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1985

Oceanographic and meteorological research based on the data products of SEASAT

Reservations were expressed concerning the sum of squares wind recovery algorithm and the power law model function. The SAS sum of squares (SOS) method for recovering winds from backscatter data leads to inconsistent results when V pol and H pol winds are compared. A model function that does not use a power law and that accounts for sea surface temperature is needed and is under study both theoretically and by means of the SASS mode 4 data. Aspects of the determination of winds by means of scatterometry and of the utilization of vector wind data for meteorological forecasts are elaborated. The operational aspect of an intermittent assimilation scheme currently utilized for the specification of the initial value field is considered with focus on quantifying the absolute 12-hour linear displacement error of the movement of low centers.

Pierson, W. J., Jr.↗