Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Natural Probabilities”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 559 records · Page 31

Cosmogenic radioisotopes on LDEF surfaces

The radioisotope Be-7 was discovered in early 1990 on the front surface, and the front surface only, of the LDEF. A working hypothesis is that the isotope, which is known to be mainly produced in the stratosphere by spallation of nitrogen and oxygen nuclei with cosmic ray protons or secondary neutrons, diffuses upward and is absorbed onto metal surfaces of spacecraft. The upward transport must be rapid, that is, its characteristic time scale is similar to, or shorter than, the 53 day half-life of the isotope. It is probably by analogy with meteoritic metal atmospheric chemistry, that the form of the Be at a few 100 km altitude is as the positive ion Be(+) which is efficiently incorporated into the ionic lattice of oxides, such as Al2O3, Cr2O3, Fe2O3, etc., naturally occurring on surfaces of Al and stainless steel. Other radioisotopes of Be, Cl, and C are also produced in the atmosphere, and a search was begun to discover these. Of interest are Be-10 and C-14 for which the production cross sections are well known. The method of analysis is accelerator mass spectrometry. Samples from LDEF clamp plates are being chemically extracted, purified, and prepared for an accelerator run.

Gregory, J. C.↗

Design of Ternary Correlation Filters to Reduce Probability of Error

The problem of designing ternary phase and amplitude filters (TPAF's) that reduce the probability of image misclassification for a two-class image set is studied. The Fisher ratio is used as a measure of the correct classification rate, and an attempt is made to maximize this quantity in the filter designs. Given the nonanalytical nature of the design problem, a simulated annealing optimization technique is employed. Computer simulation results are presented for several cases including single in-class and out-of-class image sets and multiple image sets corresponding to the design of synthetic discriminant function filters. Significant improvements are found in expected rates of correct classification in comparison to binary phase-only filters and other TPAF designs. Approaches to accelerate the filter design process are also discussed.

Downie, John D.↗

Statistical Analysis of an Infrared Thermography Inspection of Reinforced Carbon-Carbon

Each piece of flight hardware being used on the shuttle must be analyzed and pass NASA requirements before the shuttle is ready for launch. One tool used to detect cracks that lie within flight hardware is Infrared Flash Thermography. This is a non-destructive testing technique which uses an intense flash of light to heat up the surface of a material after which an Infrared camera is used to record the cooling of the material. Since cracks within the material obstruct the natural heat flow through the material, they are visible when viewing the data from the Infrared camera. We used Ecotherm, a software program, to collect data pertaining to the delaminations and analyzed the data using Ecotherm and University of Dayton Log Logistic Probability of Detection (POD) Software. The goal was to reproduce the statistical analysis produced by the University of Dayton software, by using scatter plots, log transforms, and residuals to test the assumption of normality for the residuals.

Comeaux, Kayla↗

Land–Atmosphere Feedbacks Exacerbate Concurrent Soil Drought and Atmospheric Aridity

Compound extremes such as cooccurring soil drought (low soil moisture) and atmospheric aridity (high vapor pressure deficit) can be disastrous for natural and societal systems. Soil drought and atmospheric aridity are 2 main physiological stressors driving widespread vegetation mortality and reduced terrestrial carbon uptake. Here, we empirically demonstrate that strong negative coupling between soil moisture and vapor pressure deficit occurs globally, indicating high probability of cooccurring soil drought and atmospheric aridity. Using the Global Land Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE)-CMIP5 experiment, we further show that concurrent soil drought and atmospheric aridity are greatly exacerbated by land– atmosphere feedbacks. The feedback of soil drought on the atmosphere is largely responsible for enabling atmospheric aridity extremes. In addition, the soil moisture–precipitation feedback acts to amplify precipitation and soil moisture deficits in most regions. CMIP5 models further show that the frequency of concurrent soil drought and atmospheric aridity enhanced by land–atmosphere feedbacks is projected to increase in the 21st century. Importantly, land– atmosphere feedbacks will greatly increase the intensity of both soil drought and atmospheric aridity beyond that expected from changes in mean climate alone.

Compound extreme events↗

Characterizing major and trace element compositions in fallout melt glass from a near-surface nuclear test

We report the chemical and isotopic compositions of fallout melt glasses from nuclear tests contain a range of information constraining the physical conditions within the fireball and the mechanisms of fallout formation but historic studies tended to exclude the behavior of stable major and trace elements. Here, we present a large study specifically focused on major and trace element relationships within a population of macroscale fallout samples from a single event. We interpret these data to better constrain how fallout melt glass formation in near surface environments is influenced by that environment and demonstrate how major and trace element abundances can provide useful insights into chemical processes within the fireball. Data confirm that the uranium in the fallout glass population derives from two isotopically distinct endmembers: isotopically enriched uranium (presumably from the weapon), and natural composition uranium that may be a combination of anthropogenic and environmental materials from within the blast zone. The similarity between major and trace element concentrations in fallout and corresponding local soils from the event site confirm the local soils as the most probable source of entrained material into the fireball and the source of carrier material into which the bomb vapor was incorporated. The lack of correlation between major and trace element abundances with size indicates that volatility driven processes, such as condensation from the fireball, do not control the composition of macroscale fallout melt glass. Although the fallout has major and trace element chemical characteristics broadly similar to those of the local, associated soils, some systematic differences are observed between the two populations. Fallout melt glass is depleted in volatile elements such as K, Na, Tl and Pb, consistent with heating to temperatures above ~1000 °C for 3-10 s. This is supported by the results of laser heating experiments performed on rhyolitic soil at temperatures (1600-2200 °C) and timescales (1-120 s) that are broadly relevant to fallout formation conditions. Relative enrichments of metals such as Cu and Co do not correlate with the abundance of uranium, suggesting that fallout also records input of near field anthropogenic materials. Our observations suggest that major chemical features can be related to processing in the fireball and used to inform the thermal-chemical evolution of the system. Ultimately, these data are consistent with a fallout formation mechanism that involves rapid melting of surface materials to form carrier material melts with minor incorporation of bomb vapor and a degree of volumetric volatile loss due to heating.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

High-resolution soft X-ray spectra of Scorpius X-1 - The structure of circumsource accreting material

Four observations of Scorpius X-1 with the Objective Grating Spectrometer of the Einstein Observatory have provided high-resolution spectra (lambda/Delta lambda = approximately 20-50) in the wavelength range 7-46 A. The spectra reveal the presence of absorption structure due to oxygen, nitrogen, and iron, and variable emission structure associated with ionized iron and nitrogen. The strengths of these features suggest that the N/O abundance ratio in the absorbing and line emitting gas is anomalously high, which might indicate that these spectral components are associated with processed material, probably accreting matter transferred from the surface of an evolved companion. Constraints on the inclination of the system, however, imply that this cool, dense, accreting material must be well out of the plane of the binary system. Possible models for the origin and nature of this circumsource medium are discussed. An extensive discussion of the calibration of the Objective Grating Spectrometer and of the analysis of spectra acquired by that instrument is also provided.

Kahn, S. M.↗

Stochastic modeling of crack initiation and short-crack growth under creep and creep-fatigue conditions

A simplified stochastic model is proposed for crack initiation and short-crack growth under creep and creep-fatigue conditions. Material inhomogeneity provides the random nature of crack initiation and early growth. In the model, the influence of microstructure is introduced by the variability of: (1) damage accumulation along grain boundaries, (2) critical damage required for crack initiation or growth, and (3) the grain-boundary length. The probabilities of crack initiation and growth are derived by using convolution integrals. The model is calibrated and used to predict the crack density and crack-growth rate of short cracks of 304 stainless steel under creep and creep-fatigue conditions. The mean-crack initiation lives are predicted to be within an average deviation of about 10 percent from the experimental results. The predicted cumulative distributions of crack-growth rate follow the experimental data closely. The applicability of the simplified stochastic model is discussed and the future research direction is outlined.

Kitamura, Takayuki↗

Stochastic modeling of crack initiation and short-crack growth under creep and creep-fatigue conditions

A simplified stochastic model is proposed for crack initiation and short-crack growth under creep and creep-fatigue conditions. Material inhomogeneity provides the random nature of crack initiation and early growth. In the model, the influence of microstructure is introduced by the variability of: (1) damage accumulation along grain boundaries, (2) critical damage required for crack initiation or growth, and (3) the grain-boundary length. The probabilities of crack initiation and growth are derived by using convolution integrals. The model is calibrated and used to predict the crack density and crack-growth rate of short cracks of 304 stainless steel under creep and creep-fatigue conditions. The mean-crack initiation lives are predicted to be within an average deviation of about 10 percent from the experimental results. The predicted comulative distributions of crack-growth rate follow the experimental data closely. The applicability of the simplified stochastic model is discussed and the future research direction is outlined.

Kitamura, Takayuki↗

The classification and complex thermal history of the enstatite chondrites

We have carried out instrumental neutron activation analysis of 11 enstatite chondrites and electron microprobe analyses of 17 enstatite chondrites, most of which were previously little described. We report here the third known EH5 chondrite (LEW 88180) and an unusual EL6 chondrite (LEW 87119), new data on four EL3 chondrites (ALH 85119, EET 90299, PCA 91020, and MAC 88136, which is paired with MAC 88180 and MAC 88184), the second EL5 chondrite (TIL 91714), and an unusual metal-rich and sulfide-poor EL3 chondrite (LEW 87223). The often discussed differences in mineral composition displayed by the EH and EL chondrites are not as marked after the inclusion of the new samples in the database, and the two classes apparently experienced a similar range of equilibrium temperatures. However, texturally the EL chondrites appear to have experienced much higher levels of metamorphic alteration than EH chondrites of similar equilibration temperatures. Most of the petrologic type criteria are not applicable to enstatite chondrites and, unlike the ordinary chondrites, texture and mineralogy reflect different aspects of the meteorite history. We therefore propose that the existing petrologic type scheme not be used for enstatite chondrites. We suggest that while 'textural type' reflects peak metamorphic temperatures, the 'mineralogical type' reflects equilibration during postmetamorphic (probably regolith) processes. Unlike the ordinary chondrites and EH chondrites, EL chondrites experienced an extensive low-temperature metamorphic episode. There are now a large number of enstatite meteorite breccias and impact melts, and apparently surface processes were important in determining the present nature of the enstatite chondrites.

Zhang, Yanhong↗

Cost and Economics for Advanced Launch Vehicles

Market sensitivity and weight-based cost estimating relationships are key drivers in determining the financial viability of advanced space launch vehicle designs. Due to decreasing space transportation budgets and increasing foreign competition, it has become essential for financial assessments of prospective launch vehicles to be performed during the conceptual design phase. As part of this financial assessment, it is imperative to understand the relationship between market volatility, the uncertainty of weight estimates, and the economic viability of an advanced space launch vehicle program. This paper reports the results of a study that evaluated the economic risk inherent in market variability and the uncertainty of developing weight estimates for an advanced space launch vehicle program. The purpose of this study was to determine the sensitivity of a business case for advanced space flight design with respect to the changing nature of market conditions and the complexity of determining accurate weight estimations during the conceptual design phase. The expected uncertainty associated with these two factors drives the economic risk of the overall program. The study incorporates Monte Carlo simulation techniques to determine the probability of attaining specific levels of economic performance when the market and weight parameters are allowed to vary. This structured approach toward uncertainties allows for the assessment of risks associated with a launch vehicle program's economic performance. This results in the determination of the value of the additional risk placed on the project by these two factors.

Whitfield, Jeff↗

Chemical Evolution and the Origin of Life: Bibliography 1975

This bibliography is the sixth annual supplement to the comprehensive bibliography on the same subject which was published in Space Life Sci.We would like to draw attention to a recently published cumulative bibliography on this same subject: Biochemical Origin of Life: Chemistry and Life. Soil and Water and Its Relationship to Origin of Life. MR - Studies of Prebiotic Polypeptides. Energy, Matter, and Life. Prospects for the Future Orientation of Scientific Research. Photochemical Formation of Self Sustaining Coacervates. Photochemical Formation of Self-Sustaining Coacervates. Comparative Study of Abiogenesis of Cysteine and Other Amino Acids Catalyzed by Various Metal Ions. Protein Structure and the Molecular Evolution of Biological Energy Conversion. Origin of Life. Clues from Relations Between Chemical Compositions of Living Organisms and Natural Environments. Shock Synthesis of Amino Acids II.', Origins of Life 6(1-2). Dynamics of the Chemical Evolution of Earth's Primitive Atmosphere. The Mechanisms of Amino Acids Synthesis by High Temperature Shock-Waves. Theory of Chemical Evolution. Physical Foundations of Probability of Biogenesis.

West, Martha W.↗

Comparison of Ejection Events in the Jet and Accretion Disc Outflows in 3C 111

We present a comparison of the parameters of accretion disc outflows and the jet of the broad-line radio galaxy 3C 111 on sub-pc scales. We make use of published X-ray observations of ultra-fast outflows (UFOs) and new 43 GHz VLBA images to track the jet knots ejection. We find that the superluminal jet coexists with the mildly relativistic outflows on sub-pc scales, possibly indicating a transverse stratification of a global flow. The two are roughly in pressure equilibrium, with the UFOs potentially providing additional support for the initial jet collimation. The UFOs are much more massive than the jet, but their kinetic power is probably about an order of magnitude lower, at least for the observations considered here. However, their momentum flux is equivalent and both of them are powerful enough to exert a concurrent feedback impact on the surrounding environment. A link between these components is naturally predicted in the context of MHD models for jet/outflow formation. However, given the high radiation throughput of AGNs, radiation pressure should also be taken into account. From the comparison with the long-term 2-10 keV RXTE light curve we find that the UFOs are preferentially detected during periods of increasing flux. We also find the possibility to place the UFOs within the known X-ray dips-jet ejection cycles, which has been shown to be a strong proof of the disc-jet connection, in analogue with stellar-mass black holes. However, given the limited number of observations presently available, these relations are only tentative and additional spectral monitoring is needed to test them conclusively.

Tombesi, F.↗

Chapter 15: Potential Surprises: Compound Extremes and Tipping Elements

The Earth system is made up of many components that interact in complex ways across a broad range of temporal and spatial scales. As a result of these interactions the behavior of the system cannot be predicted by looking at individual components in isolation. Negative feedbacks, or self-stabilizing cycles, within and between components of the Earth system can dampen changes (Ch. 2: Physical Drivers of Climate Change). However, their stabilizing effects render such feedbacks of less concern from a risk perspective than positive feedbacks, or self-reinforcing cycles. Positive feedbacks magnify both natural and anthropogenic changes. Some Earth system components, such as arctic sea ice and the polar ice sheets, may exhibit thresholds beyond which these self-reinforcing cycles can drive the component, or the entire system, into a radically different state. Although the probabilities of these state shifts may be difficult to assess, their consequences could be high, potentially exceeding anything anticipated by climate model projections for the coming century.

Kopp, R. E.↗

Phosphoran pyroxene and olivine in silicate inclusions in natural iron-carbon alloy, Disko Island, Greenland

A survey of literature data on the P contents of olivine, pyroxene, and garnet in mantle xenoliths and the bulk P contents of mantle xenoliths shows that available data is ambiguous as to whether mantle P is primarily contained in silicates or in phosphates, even though phosphates are rarely observed in mantle xenoliths. Garnet probably contains more of the mantle's P than olivine or pyroxene. Bulk P contents of mantle xenoliths vary significantly. Estimation of the primitive mantle P content from xenoliths requires interpretation of the partial melting and contamination histories of the xenoliths.

Goodrich, C. A.↗

Generative Thermodynamic Computing

Here, we introduce a generative modeling framework for thermodynamic computing, in which structured data are synthesized from noise by the natural time evolution of a physical system governed by Langevin dynamics. While conventional diffusion models use neural networks to perform denoising, here the information needed to generate structure from noise is encoded by the dynamics of a thermodynamic system. Training proceeds by maximizing the probability with which the computer generates the reverse of a noising trajectory, which ensures that the computer generates data with minimal heat emission. We demonstrate this framework within a digital simulation of a thermodynamic computer. If realized in analog hardware, such a system would function as a generative model that produces structured samples without the need for artificially injected noise or active control of denoising.

Whitelam, Stephen [Lawrence Berkeley National Labo↗

Distribution System Resilience Assessment Considering PV Vulnerabilities for Hurricane Events

Distribution networks are increasingly vulnerable to damage and outages from extreme weather events. The integration of solar photovoltaics (PVs) further complicates resilience analysis due to its weather-dependent nature. However, limited research has examined the impacts of weather on PVs under severe events like hurricanes. This paper proposes a probabilistic framework to assess distribution system resilience considering PV vulnerabilities during hurricanes. The framework incorporates (i) a spatiotemporal fragility model to evaluate failure probabilities for distribution lines and PVs, and (ii) resilience indices at both system and component levels. The approach offers valuable insights into the resilience of modern distribution grids under extreme weather conditions. Numerical results on the unbalanced IEEE 123-bus test system validate the effectiveness of the framework.

Vahedi, Soroush [University of Connecticut, Storrs↗

Probabilistic load model development and validation for composite load spectra for select space propulsion engines

A major task of the program to develop an expert system to predict the loads on selected components of a generic space propulsion engine is the design development and application of a probabilitic loads model. This model is being developed in order to account for the random nature of the loads and assess the variable load ranges' effect on the engine performance. A probabilistic model has been developed. The model is based primarily on simulation methods, but also has a Gaussian algebra method (if all variables are near normal), a fast probability integrator routine (for the calculation of low probability events), and a separate, stand alone program for performing barrier crossing calculations. Each of these probabilistic methods has been verified with theoretical calculations using assumed distributional forms.

Kurth, R.↗

Algorithms For Segmentation Of Complex-Amplitude SAR Data

Several algorithms implement improved method of segmenting highly speckled, high-resolution, complex-amplitude synthetic-aperture-radar (SAR) digitized images into regions, within each backscattering characteristics similar or homogeneous from place to place. Method provides for approximate, deterministic solution by two alternative algorithms almost always converging to local minimums: one, Iterative Conditional Modes (ICM) algorithm, which locally maximizes posterior probability density of region labels; other, Maximum Posterior Marginal (MPM) algorithm, which maximizes posterior marginal density of region labels at each pixel location. ICM algorithm optimizes reconstruction of underlying scene. MPM algorithm minimizes expected number of misclassified pixels, possibly better in remote sensing of natural scenes.

Rignot, Eric J. M.↗