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At least 559 records · Page 31

Estimating Energy Market Schedules Using Historical Price Data: Preprint

The global climate crisis is expected to reshape the energy generation landscape in the coming decades. Increasing integration of non-dispatchable renewable energy resources into energy infrastructures and markets increases uncertainty and creates new opportunities for flexible energy systems. To conduct proper economic evaluation of flexible energy systems, such as integrated energy systems (IES), advancements in modelling of market interactions, such as bidding, is crucial. This work presents a shortcut algorithm which uses two mixed integer linear programs to compute dispatch schedules (e.g., hourly power production targets) that are constrained by the resource's bid information and characteristics (e.g., minimum up and down times) based on historical locational marginal price (LMP) data. This is orders of magnitude less data than required for a market clearing calculation with a full production cost model (PCM). We find the shortcut simulator recapitulates generator dispatch signals for the Prescient PCM with approximately 4% error for the RTS-GMLC test system.

electricity generation↗

From Electronic Structure to Ion Transport: Photoelectron Spectroscopy and Molecular Dynamics Simulations Reveal the Role of Anions in Lithium Battery Electrolytes

Electrolyte anions are pivotal for lithium battery performance, yet their fundamental electronic structural properties are not well understood. In this work, we employ a combination of negative-ion photoelectron spectroscopy (NIPES), ab initio calculations, and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to investigate the electronic structures of three representative electrolyte anions. This multiscale approach enables us to elucidate how their intrinsic electronic properties govern anion–solvent interactions in gas-phase clusters, as well as lithium-ion (Li + ) solvation structures and ion transport behavior in the condensed phase. NIPES reveals that difluoro(oxalato)borate (DFOB – ), bis(fluorosulfonyl)imide (FSI – ), and bis(oxalato)borate (BOB – ) all exhibit high electron binding energies, with vertical/adiabatic detachment energies increasing from DFOB – (6.09/5.70 eV) to FSI – (6.80/6.10 eV) to BOB – (6.82/6.40 eV), correlating with enhanced oxidation stability. Ab initio calculations reveal that DFOB – /FSI – –solvent complexes bind Li + ∼ 10 kcal/mol stronger than BOB – series, aligning with the strength of a Li + –anion model. DFOB – exhibits pronounced charge localization on both oxygen and fluorine atoms, enabling their involvement in Li + coordination. In contrast, fluorine atoms in FSI – are largely electron-depleted and remain excluded from direct Li + binding. MD simulations further demonstrate that LiDFOB and LiFSI systems exhibit Li + diffusion coefficients three and five times higher than those of LiBOB across four common solvents. Notably, LiFSI salt in acetonitrile (AN) exhibits the fastest Li + diffusion among 12 electrolyte systems, highlighting the synergistic effect of FSI – and AN in promoting ion mobility. In conclusion, these findings provide a molecular-level understanding of the critical roles of anion and its microsolvation in optimizing Li + diffusion dynamics, once again emphasizing the positioning of FSI – and DFOB – as prime candidates for next-generation electrolytes.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Anomalies in the topology of the temperature fluctuations in the cosmic microwave background: An analysis of the NPIPE and FFP10 data releases

We present a topological analysis of the temperature fluctuation maps from the Planck 2020 Data Release 4 NPIPE dataset and the Planck 2018 Data Release 3 FFP10 dataset. We performed a multiscale analysis in terms of the homology characteristics of the maps, invoking relative homology to account for the analysis in the presence of masks. We performed our analysis for a range of smoothing scales spanning sub- and super-horizon scales corresponding to a full width at half maximum (FWHM) of 5',10',20',40',80',160',320', and 640', and employed simulations based on the standard model for comparison, which assumes the initial fluctuation field to be an isotropic and homogeneous Gaussian random field. Examining the behavior of topological components, represented by the 0D homology group, we find the observations to be approximately 2σ or less deviant from the simulations for all resolutions and scales for the NPIPE dataset. For the FFP10 dataset, we detect a 2.96σ deviation between the observations and simulations at N = 128, FWHM = 80'. For the topological loops, represented by the first homology group, the simulations and observations are consistent within 2σ for most resolutions and scales for both the datasets. However, for the NPIPE dataset, we observe a high deviation between the observation and simulations in the number of loops at FWHM = 320', but at a low dimensionless threshold ν = –2.5. Under a Gaussian assumption, this would amount to a deviation of ~4σ. However, the distribution in this bin is manifestly non-Gaussian and does not obey Poisson statistics either. In the absence of a true theoretical understanding, we simply note that the significance is higher than what may be resolved by 600 simulations, yielding an empirical p-value of at most 0.0016. Specifically in this case, our tests indicate that the numbers arise from a statistically stable regime, despite being based on small numbers. For the FFP10 dataset, the differences are not as strong as for the NPIPE dataset, indicating a 2.77σ deviation at this resolution and threshold. The Euler characteristic, which is the alternating sum of the ranks of relative homology groups, reflects the deviations in the components and loops. To assess the significance of combined levels for a given scale, we employed the empirical and theoretical versions of the χ 2 test as well as the nonparametric Tukey depth test. Although all statistics exhibit a stable distribution, we favor the empirical version of the χ 2 test in the final interpretation, as it indicates the most conservative differences. For the NPIPE dataset, we find that the components and loops differ at more than 95%, but agree within the 99% confidence level with respect to the base model at N = 32, FWHM = 320'. The Euler characteristic at this resolution displays a per mil deviation. In contrast, the FFP10 dataset shows that the observations are consistent with the base model within the 95% confidence level, at this and smaller scales. This is consistent with the observations of the Planck analysis pipeline via Minkowski functionals. For the largest smoothing scale, N = 16, FWHM = 640', both datasets exhibit an anomalous behavior of the loops, where FFP10 data exhibit a deviation that is larger by an order of magnitude than that of the NPIPE dataset. In contrast, the values for the topological components and the Euler characteristic agree between observations and model to within a confidence level of 99%. However, for the largest scales, the statistics are based on low numbers and may have to be regarded with caution. Even though both datasets exhibit mild to significant discrepancies, they also exhibit contrasting behaviors at various instances. Therefore, we do not find it feasible to convincingly accept or reject the null hypothesis. Disregarding the large-scale anomalies that persist at similar scales in WMAP and Planck, observations of the cosmic microwave background are largely consistent with the standard cosmological model within 2σ.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Coupled Monte Carlo Transport and Conjugate Heat Transfer for Wire-Wrapped Bundles Within the MOOSE Framework

Cardinal is an open-source application that couples OpenMC Monte Carlo transport and NekRS computational fluid dynamics (CFD) to the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE), closing neutronics and thermal-fluid gaps in conducting high-resolution multiscale and multiphysics analyses of nuclear systems. We first provide a brief introduction to Cardinal's software design, data mapping, and coupling strategy to highlight our approach to overcoming common challenges in high-fidelity multiphysics simulations. Here we then present two Cardinal simulations for hexagonal pin bundles. The first is a validation of Cardinal's conjugate heat transfer coupling of NekRS's Reynolds-Averaged Navier Stokes model with MOOSE's heat conduction physics for a bare seven-pin Freon-12 bundle flow experiment. Predictions for pin surface temperatures under three different heating modes agree reasonably well with experimental data and similar CFD modeling from the literature. The second simulation is a multiphysics coupling of OpenMC, NekRS, and BISON for a reduced-scale, seven-pin wire-wrapped version of an Advanced Burner Reactor bundle. Wire wraps are approximated using a momentum source model, and coupled predictions are provided for velocity, temperature, and power distribution.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

A Framework for Performing Multiscale Stochastic Progressive Failure Analysis of Composite Structures

A framework is presented that enables coupled multiscale analysis of composite structures. The recently developed, free, Finite Element Analysis-Micromechanics Analysis Code (FEAMAC) software couples the Micromechanics Analysis Code with Generalized Method of Cells (MAC/GMC) with ABAQUS to perform micromechanics based FEA such that the nonlinear composite material response at each integration point is modeled at each increment by MAC/GMC. As a result, the stochastic nature of fiber breakage in composites can be simulated through incorporation of an appropriate damage and failure model that operates within MAC/GMC on the level of the fiber. Results are presented for the progressive failure analysis of a titanium matrix composite tensile specimen that illustrate the power and utility of the framework and address the techniques needed to model the statistical nature of the problem properly. In particular, it is shown that incorporating fiber strength randomness on multiple scales improves the quality of the simulation by enabling failure at locations other than those associated with structural level stress risers.

Bednarcyk, Brett A.↗

A Multiscale Cohesive Law for Carbon Fiber Networks

Better predictive models of mechanical failure in low-weight heat shield composites would aid material certification for missions with aggressive atmospheric entry conditions. Here, we develop such a model for the rapid engineering analysis of the failure limits of phenolic impregnated carbon ablator (PICA) - a leading heat shield material whose structural component is a carbon fiber network. We hypothesize inelastic deformation failure mechanisms and model their behavior using molecular dynamics simulations to calculate the binding energy. We then upscale this binding energy to the macroscale using a renormalization argument. The approach delivers insightful and reasonably accurate macroscale predictions that compare favorably to experiments. In application, the model is validated for a particular variety of PICA by comparison to experiment and would then be used to study design scenarios in different entry conditions.

W. SCHILL↗

On a fully-implicit VMS-stabilized FE formulation for low Mach number compressible resistive MHD with application to MCF

This study presents the development and evaluation of a fully-implicit variational multiscale (VMS) stabilized unstructured finite element (FE) formulation for compressible magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) model, at low Mach number regime. The model describes the dynamics of a compressible conducting fluid in the low Mach number limit in the presence of electromagnetic fields and can be used to study aspects of astrophysical phenomena, important science and technology applications, and basic plasma physics phenomena. The specific applications that motivate this study are macroscopic simulations of the longer time-scale stability and disruptions of magnetic confinement fusion (MCF) devices, specifically the ITER tokamak. The discussion considers the development of the VMS FE representation, the structure of the stabilizing terms that deal with significant convective flows, the stabilization of the nearly incompressible response of the fluid flow, and the stabilization of the constraint that enforces the solenoidal involution on the magnetic field. The nonlinear discretized system is solved with scalable preconditioned Newton–Krylov iterative methods, which employs a multiphysics block preconditioning method based on approximate block factorizations and Schur complements. The study presents an evaluation of the VMS method on a 2D cartesian tearing mode instability, and illustrates the scalability of the solvers on MCF relevant problems. A set of results are also presented for longer time-scale stability and disruptions for the ITER tokamak. These include a vertical displacement event (VDE), and a (1,1) internal kink mode. Here, the formulation is demonstrated to be scalable and also reasonably robust with respect to the Lundquist number scaling.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Multiscale Simulation of Deployable Composite Structures

In this paper, a multiscale simulation method for analyzing deployable composite structures is presented. Effective shell properties of the composites are obtained based on Mechanics of Structure Genome (MSG) homogenization, and then implemented into a user-subroutine UGENS for structural simulation with shell elements in Abaqus. The column bending test(CBT) of a flat thin flexure and lenticular composite boom in a simplified deployer structure are studied for demonstration. A viscoelastic material model with direct integration is adopted in this paper. The CBT simulation shows good agreement with experiments during relaxation, while errors are observed when comparing residual deformation. It is shown that this CBT model can be calibrated to CBT test results. For the lenticular boom analysis, the complete process of flattening, coiling, stowage, deployment and recovery is simulated with the viscoelastic shell model.

Finite element analysis↗

Multiscale Simulations of Magnetic Island Coalescence

We describe a new interactive parallel Adaptive Mesh Refinement (AMR) framework written in the Python programming language. This new framework, PyAMR, hides the details of parallel AMR data structures and algorithms (e.g., domain decomposition, grid partition, and inter-process communication), allowing the user to focus on the development of algorithms for advancing the solution of a systems of partial differential equations on a single uniform mesh. We demonstrate the use of PyAMR by simulating the pairwise coalescence of magnetic islands using the resistive Hall MHD equations. Techniques for coupling different physics models on different levels of the AMR grid hierarchy are discussed.

Dorelli, John C.↗

A multiscale cohesive law for carbon fiber networks

Better predictive models of mechanical failure in low-weight heat shield composites would aid material certification for missions with aggressive atmospheric entry conditions. In this study, we develop such a model for the rapid engineering analysis of the failure limits of phenolic impregnated carbon ablator (PICA) - a leading heat shield material whose structural component is a carbon fiber network. We hypothesize inelastic deformation failure mechanisms and model their behavior using molecular dynamics simulations to calculate the binding energy. We then upscale this binding energy to the macroscale using a renormalization argument. The approach delivers insightful and reasonably accurate macroscale predictions that compare favorably to experiments. In application, the model is validated for a particular variety of PICA by comparison to experiment and would then be used to study design scenarios in different entry conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Multiscale modeling to evaluate proposed space-based Doppler lidar sampling strategies

A proposal has been made to place a pulsed Doppler lidar on a space platform (Huffaker, et al., 1980; Emmitt, 1982) in a low earth orbit (200 to 800 km) to measure the atmospheric winds with a spatial resolution commensurate with the current continental rawinsonde network density - i.e., 300 to 500 km resolution. In the case of the space-based doppler lidar, the full range of space scales applies. Single shot pulses with dimensions of 10 x 1000 meters are used to sample areas 100,000 x 100,000 meters to resolved mass flow structure with wavelength of 1 million meters. Simulation studies, therefore, require an equally broad range of atmospheric models. A general circulation model is appropriate to answer questions regarding the impact of a global wind measuring system upon synoptic forecasts. Since the nominal resolution of the spacebased system is expected to be a few 100's of kilometers, then a numerical model with mesoscale dynamics is required. The meaning of an average Doppler shift within a laser pulse volume must be evaluated with models of turbulent/convective scale motions and aerosol gradients. Examples of how models on all these scales have been applied in an ongoing simulation study are presented. In particular, the uncertainties in a mesoscale wind estimate are separated into those arising from pulse scale variances and those due to sample distribution within a prescribed resolution volume. Trade-offs between accuracy and representativeness are discussed in terms of the model results.

Emmitt, G. D.↗

Hydration-Controlled Proton Transport in Respiratory Complex I

Proton pumping by respiratory complex I is one essential element for generating the proton motive force that drives ATP synthesis in mitochondria. Although it is understood that electrons from NADH reduce ubiquinone at the peripheral arm and that four protons are transferred in the membrane domain, the mechanism by which this redox reaction initiates proton translocation remains unclear. A lateral pathway linking the quinone binding site to the membrane domain via ND1, ND3, and ND4L subunits has been proposed as a possible initial path of an excess proton. However, experimental structures indicate that the hydration connectivity between D66 ND3 and E34 ND4L is comparatively weaker than in neighboring segments, suggesting a potential regulatory point for proton transfer. Using multiscale reactive molecular dynamics (MS-RMD) and a water wire connectivity metric, we directly simulate proton transport through this region as coupled to the hydration by water molecules. Our results reveal that proton transfer is thermodynamically feasible when transient hydration aligns with the presence of an excess proton, revealing the strong coupling between hydration and proton transfer (PT) in this region of Complex I. These findings support a model where proton injection enhances local hydration, dynamically opening the pathway for proton transfer and regulating the onset of proton pumping in Complex I.

Chemical structure↗

Energy transfer and scale dynamics in 2D and 3D laser-driven jets

We demonstrate a methodology for diagnosing the multiscale dynamics and energy transfer in complex HED flows with realistic driving and boundary conditions. The approach separates incompressible, compressible, and baropycnal contributions to energy scale-transfer and quantifies the direction of these transfers in (generalized) wavenumber space. We use this to compare the kinetic energy (KE) transfer across scales in simulations of 2D axisymmetric vs fully 3D laser-driven plasma jets. Using the FLASH code, we model a turbulent jet ablated from an aluminum cone target in the configuration outlined. We show that, in addition to its well known bias for underestimating hydrodynamic instability growth, 2D modeling suffers from significant spurious energization of the bulk flow by a turbulent upscale cascade. In 2D, this arises as vorticity and strain from instabilities near the jet's leading edge transfer KE upscale, sustaining a coherent circulation that helps propel the axisymmetric jet farther (⁠ ≈25% by 3.5 ns) and helps keep it collimated. In 3D, the coherent circulation and upscale KE transfer are absent. Here, the methodology presented here may also help with inter-model comparison and validation, including future modeling efforts to alleviate some of the 2D hydrodynamic artifacts highlighted in this study.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Impact of confined geometries on hopping and trapping of motile bacteria in porous media

We use a random walk particle-tracking (RWPT) approach to elucidate the impact of porous media confinement and cell-cell interactions on bacterial transport. The model employs stochastic alternating motility states consisting of hopping movement and trapping reorientation. The stochastic motility patterns are defined based on direct visualization of individual trajectory data. We validate our model against experimental data, at single-cell resolution, of bacterial E. coli motion in three-dimensional confined porous media. Results show that the model is able to efficiently simulate the spreading dynamics of motile bacteria as it captures the impact of cell-cell interaction and pore confinement, which marks the transition to a late-time subdiffusive regime. Furthermore, the model is able to qualitatively reproduce the observed directional persistence. Lastly, our RWPT model constitutes a meshless simple method which is easy to implement and does not invoke ad hoc assumptions but represents the basis for a multiscale approach to the study of bacterial dispersal in porous systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Large-eddy simulation of an atmospheric bore and associated gravity wave effects on wind farm performance in the southern Great Plains

Gravity waves are a common occurrence in the atmosphere, with a variety of generation mechanisms. Their impact on wind farms has only recently gained attention, with most studies focused on wind farm-induced gravity waves. In this study, the interaction between a wind farm and gravity waves generated by an atmospheric bore event is assessed using multiscale large-eddy simulations. The atmospheric bore is created by a thunderstorm downdraft from a nocturnal mesoscale convective system (MCS). The associated gravity waves impact the wind resource and power production at a nearby wind farm during the American Wake Experiment (AWAKEN) in the US southern Great Plains. A two-domain nested setup (Δx=300 and 20 m) is used in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, forced with data from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model, to capture both the formation of the bore and its interaction with individual wind turbines. The MCS is resolved on the large outer domain, where the structure of the bore and the associated gravity waves are found to be especially sensitive to parameterized microphysics processes. On the finer inner domain, gravity wave interactions with individual wind turbines are resolved; wake dynamics are captured using a generalized actuator disk parameterization in WRF. The gravity waves are found to have a strong effect on the atmosphere above the wind farm; however, the effect of the waves is more nuanced closer to the surface where there is additional turbulence, both ambient and wake-generated. Notably, the gravity waves modulate the mesoscale environment by weakening and dissipating the preexisting low-level jet, which reduces hub-height wind speed and hence the simulated power output, which is confirmed by the observed supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) power data. Additionally, the gravity waves induce local wind direction variations correlated with fluctuations in pressure, which lead to fluctuations in the simulated power output as various turbines within the farm are subjected to waking from nearby turbines.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Peridynamic Models for Random Media Found by Coarse Graining

Using coarse graining, the upscaled mechanical properties of a solid with small scale heterogeneities are derived. The method maps internal forces at the small scale onto peridynamic bond forces in the coarse grained mesh. These upscaled bond forces are used to calibrate a peridynamic material model with position-dependent parameters. These parameters incorporate mesoscale variations in the statistics of the small scale system. The upscaled peridynamic model can have a much coarser discretization than the original small scale model, allowing larger scale simulations to be performed efficiently. The convergence properties of the method are investigated for representative random microstructures. In conclusion, a bond breakage criterion for the upscaled peridynamic material model is also demonstrated.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Coalescence dynamics of prismatic dislocation loops due to vacancy supersaturation

Recovery processes in metals with a high defect concentration are at the heart of a structural alloy's usability in engineering applications. However, such processes take place via nonconservative mechanisms mediated by point defect diffusion and are governed by their interactions with the underlying microstructure. Indeed, one of the main challenges in studying recovery processes is their intrinsic multiscale complexity, which often negates the direct use of experimental techniques. Here, in this Research Letter, we study the mechanism of dislocation loop coalescence in metals by simulating the interaction dynamics between vacancies and prismatic loops using a stochastic framework that seamlessly bridges point defect kinetics with dislocation mechanics. Our simulations reveal two fundamental discoveries: first, that climb processes are governed by local fluctuations that are not captured by continuum elastodiffusion models, and, second, that prismatic loops create internal traps for vacancies, leading to the formation of rings around the perimeter of the loops that affect how coalescence takes place. Our results show an excellent agreement with in situ experimental observations of loop coalescence in Fe under irradiation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Enhanced Representation of Soil NO Emissions in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Model Version 5.0.2

Modeling of soil nitric oxide (NO) emissions is highly uncertain and may misrepresent its spatial and temporal distribution. This study builds upon a recently introduced parameterization to improve the timing and spatial distribution of soil NO emission estimates in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. The parameterization considers soil parameters, meteorology, land use, and mineral nitrogen (N) availability to estimate NO emissions. We incorporate daily year-specific fertilizer data from the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) agricultural model to replace the annual generic data of the initial parameterization, and use a 12km resolution soil biome map over the continental USA. CMAQ modeling for July 2011 shows slight differences in model performance in simulating fine particulate matter and ozone from Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) and Clean Air Status and Trends Network (CASTNET) sites and NO2 columns from Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) satellite retrievals. We also simulate how the change in soil NO emissions scheme affects the expected O3 response to projected emissions reductions.

remote sensing↗