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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 559 records · Page 31
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1993

Kinetic theory model predictions compared with low-thrust axisymmetric nozzle plume data

A system of nonlinear integral equations equivalent to the steady-state Krook kinetic equation was used to model the flow from a low-thrust axisymmetric nozzle. The mathematical model was used to numerically calculate the number density, temperature, and velocity of a simple gas as it expands into a near vacuum. With these quantities the gas pressure and flow directions of the gas near the exit plane were calculated and compared with experimental values for a low-thrust nozzle of the same geometry and mass flow rate.

Riley, B. R.↗
NASA NTRS2001

A Canonical Ensemble Correlation Prediction Model for Seasonal Precipitation Anomaly

This report describes an optimal ensemble forecasting model for seasonal precipitation and its error estimation. Each individual forecast is based on the canonical correlation analysis (CCA) in the spectral spaces whose bases are empirical orthogonal functions (EOF). The optimal weights in the ensemble forecasting crucially depend on the mean square error of each individual forecast. An estimate of the mean square error of a CCA prediction is made also using the spectral method. The error is decomposed onto EOFs of the predictand and decreases linearly according to the correlation between the predictor and predictand. This new CCA model includes the following features: (1) the use of area-factor, (2) the estimation of prediction error, and (3) the optimal ensemble of multiple forecasts. The new CCA model is applied to the seasonal forecasting of the United States precipitation field. The predictor is the sea surface temperature.

Shen, Samuel S. P.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Error Estimation of An Ensemble Statistical Seasonal Precipitation Prediction Model

This NASA Technical Memorandum describes an optimal ensemble canonical correlation forecasting model for seasonal precipitation. Each individual forecast is based on the canonical correlation analysis (CCA) in the spectral spaces whose bases are empirical orthogonal functions (EOF). The optimal weights in the ensemble forecasting crucially depend on the mean square error of each individual forecast. An estimate of the mean square error of a CCA prediction is made also using the spectral method. The error is decomposed onto EOFs of the predictand and decreases linearly according to the correlation between the predictor and predictand. Since new CCA scheme is derived for continuous fields of predictor and predictand, an area-factor is automatically included. Thus our model is an improvement of the spectral CCA scheme of Barnett and Preisendorfer. The improvements include (1) the use of area-factor, (2) the estimation of prediction error, and (3) the optimal ensemble of multiple forecasts. The new CCA model is applied to the seasonal forecasting of the United States (US) precipitation field. The predictor is the sea surface temperature (SST). The US Climate Prediction Center's reconstructed SST is used as the predictor's historical data. The US National Center for Environmental Prediction's optimally interpolated precipitation (1951-2000) is used as the predictand's historical data. Our forecast experiments show that the new ensemble canonical correlation scheme renders a reasonable forecasting skill. For example, when using September-October-November SST to predict the next season December-January-February precipitation, the spatial pattern correlation between the observed and predicted are positive in 46 years among the 50 years of experiments. The positive correlations are close to or greater than 0.4 in 29 years, which indicates excellent performance of the forecasting model. The forecasting skill can be further enhanced when several predictors are used.

Shen, Samuel S. P.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Towards testing the theory of gravity with DESI: summary statistics, model predictions and future simulation requirements

Shortly after its discovery, General Relativity (GR) was applied to predict the behavior of our Universe on the largest scales, and later became the foundation of modern cosmology. Its validity has been verified on a range of scales and environments from the Solar system to merging black holes. However, experimental confirmations of GR on cosmological scales have so far lacked the accuracy one would hope for — its applications on those scales being largely based on extrapolation and its validity there sometimes questioned in the shadow of the discovery of the unexpected cosmic acceleration. Future astronomical instruments surveying the distribution and evolution of galaxies over substantial portions of the observable Universe, such as the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI), will be able to measure the fingerprints of gravity and their statistical power will allow strong constraints on alternatives to GR. In this paper, based on a set of N-body simulations and mock galaxy catalogs, we study the predictions of a number of traditional and novel summary statistics beyond linear redshift distortions in two well-studied modified gravity models — chameleon f(R) gravity and a braneworld model — and the potential of testing these deviations from GR using DESI. These summary statistics employ a wide array of statistical properties of the galaxy and the underlying dark matter field, including two-point and higher-order statistics, environmental dependence, redshift space distortions and weak lensing. We find that they hold promising power for testing GR to unprecedented precision. The major future challenge is to make realistic, simulation-based mock galaxy catalogs for both GR and alternative models to fully exploit the statistic power of the DESI survey (by matching the volumes and galaxy number densities of the mocks to those in the real survey) and to better understand the impact of key systematic effects. Using these, we identify future simulation and analysis needs for gravity tests using DESI.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impacts of Sea‐Level Rise on Hypoxia and Phytoplankton Production in Chesapeake Bay: Model Prediction and Assessment

In this study, the influence of sea-level rise (SLR) on seasonal hypoxia and phytoplankton production in Chesapeake Bay is investigated using a 3D unstructured grid model. Three SLR scenarios (0.17, 0.5, and 1.0 m) were conducted from 1991 to 1995. Results show that the summer hypoxic volume (HV) increases about 2%, 8%, and 16%, respectively, for these three scenarios, compared with Base Scenario. The contributions of physical and biological processes on the increase in the HV were analyzed. With the projected SLR, enhanced gravitational circulation transports more oxygen-rich water in the bottom layer from the mouth. However, the pycnocline moves upwards along with increasing water depth, which largely prolongs the time for dissolved oxygen (DO) to be transported to the bottom. The altered physical processes contribute greatly to a larger HV bay-wide. Besides, SLR increases the whole Bay phytoplankton production, with a larger increase in shallow areas (e.g., 53% in areas with depth <1 m under SLR of 0.5 m). Enhanced light availability is suggested to be the major driver of blooming phytoplankton under SLR in shallow areas. While increased DO production over the euphotic zone is mostly released to the atmosphere and transported downstream, the increase in settled organic matter greatly promotes DO consumption in the water column. The increased respiration is another major cause of the HV increase besides the physical contributions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1987

Validation of an interior noise prediction model for a composite cylinder

An acoustic modal analysis has been performed in the cavity of a composite cylinder model of an aircraft fuselage. The filament wound, composite shell is 12 feet long and 5.5 feet in diameter. A one-half-in. thick plywood floor is attached to the shell 69 deg from the vertical centerline through the bottom of the shell. The acoustic modal frequencies were obtained from a sound pressure level and phase survey conducted throughout the interior volume bounded by the floor, endcaps and stiffened shell, while being excited by white noise from a loudspeaker source. The measured acoustic resonance frequencies and mode shapes compare well with analytical predictions from the Propeller Aircraft Interior Noise (PAIN) model. Details of the theory and derivation of the acoustic characteristics have been included. Reverberation time measurements, using the integrated impulse technique, have been performed to determine acoustic loss factors. These measured loss factors have been input to the PAIN program in order to more accurately predict the space-averaged interior noise of the composite cylinder.

Beyer, Todd B.↗
NASA NTRS2017

HMI Data Driven Magnetohydrodynamic Model Predicted Active Region Photospheric Heating Rates: Their Scale Invariant, Flare Like Power Law Distributions, and Their Possible Association With Flares

A data driven, near photospheric, 3 D, non-force free magnetohydrodynamic model pre- dicts time series of the complete current density, and the resistive heating rate Q at the photosphere in neutral line regions (NLRs) of 14 active regions (ARs). The model is driven by time series of the magnetic field B observed by the Helioseismic & Magnetic Imager on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) satellite. Spurious Doppler periods due to SDO orbital motion are filtered out of the time series for B in every AR pixel. Errors in B due to these periods can be significant. The number of occurrences N(q) of values of Q > or = q for each AR time series is found to be a scale invariant power law distribution, N(Q) / Q−s, above an AR dependent threshold value of Q, where 0.3952 < or = s < or = 0.5298 with mean and standard deviation of 0.4678 and 0.0454, indicating little variation between ARs. Observations show that the number of occurrences N(E) of coronal flares with a total energy released > or = E obeys the same type of distribution, N(E) / E−S, above an AR dependent threshold value of E, with 0.38 < or approx. S < or approx. 0.60, also with little variation among ARs. Within error margins the ranges of s and S are nearly identical. This strong similarity between N(Q) and N(E) suggests a fundamental connection between the process that drives coronal flares and the process that drives photospheric NLR heating rates in ARs. In addition, results suggest it is plausible that spikes in Q, several orders of magnitude above background values, are correlated with times of the subsequent occurrence of M or X flares.

Goodman, Michael L.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Feasibility of developing LSI microcircuit reliability prediction models

In the proposed modeling approach, when any of the essential key factors are not known initially, they can be approximated in various ways with a known impact on the accuracy of the final predictions. For example, on any program where reliability predictions are started at interim states of project completion, a-priori approximate estimates of the key factors are established for making preliminary predictions. Later these are refined for greater accuracy as subsequent program information of a more definitive nature becomes available. Specific steps to develop, validate and verify these new models are described.

Ryerson, C. M.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Thermospheric dynamics during November 21-22, 1981 - Dynamics Explorer measurements and thermospheric general circulation model predictions

Time-dependent aurora and magnetospheric convection parameterizations have been derived from solar wind and aurora particle data for November 21-22, 1981, and are used to drive the auroral and magnetospheric convection models that are embedded in the National Center for Atmospheric Research thermospheric general circulation model (TGCM). Neutral wind speeds and transition boundaries between the midlatitude solar-driven circulation and the high-latitude magnetospheric convection-driven circulation are examined on an orbit-by-orbit basis. The results show that TGCM-calculated winds and reversal boundary locations are in generally good agreement with Dynamics Explorer 2 measurements for the orbits studied. This suggests that, at least for this particular period of relatively moderate geomagnetic activity, the TGCM parameterizations on the eveningside of the auroral oval and polar cap are adequate.

Roble, R. G.↗
NASA NTRS1993

New meteoroid model predictions for directional impacts on LDEF

An extensive body of data, from meteors, zodiacal light, spacecraft-borne impact detectors (Helios, Pioneer, Galileo, Ulysses), and other sources, forms the basis of a new numerical model for the distributions of interplanetary meteoroids. For each of the five populations in this model it is possible to evaluate meteoroid concentration and flux for oriented surfaces or detectors having arbitrary position and velocity in interplanetary space. For a spacecraft in geocentric orbit the effects of gravitational focussing and shielding by the Earth have been newly derived with full attention to the directionality of the particles, both on approach (i.e., relative to a massless Earth) and at the target. This modeling approach was exercised to provide an estimate of meteoroid fluence for each of several oriented surfaces on LDEF.

Divine, Neil↗
NASA NTRS1992

New meteoroid model predictions for directional impacts on LDEF

An extensive body of data, from meteors, zodiacal light, spacecraft-borne impact detectors (helios, Pioneer, Galileo, and Ulysses), and other sources, forms the basis of a new numerical model for the distributions of interplanetary meteoroids. For each of the five populations in this model it is possible to evaluate meteoroid concentration and flux for oriented surfaces or detectors having arbitrary position and velocity in interplanetary space (Divine, 1992, in preparation). For a spacecraft in geocentric orbit, the effects of gravitational focusing and shielding by the Earth were derived with full attention to the directionality of the particles, both on approach (i.e., relative to a massless Earth) and at the target. This modeling approach was exercised to provide an estimate of meteoroid fluence for each of several oriented surfaces on the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF).

Divine, Neil↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of the EarthSHAB Stratospheric Solar Hot Air Balloon Flight Prediction Model Using Balloon Trajectory Data

Abstract The heliotrope is a solar balloon design which is constructed out of painter’s plastic, and the exterior is coated in charcoal powder. Darkening the plastic gives the balloon a high solar absorptance, which allows it to ascend into the lower stratosphere and float for hours at a time. The balloons have previously been used to lift scientific instruments into the stratosphere to study chemical explosions, earthquakes, and stratospheric aerosols. They have also been proposed as a platform for planetary exploration. Flight predictions are crucial to preflight planning to reduce safety risks and meet flight objectives. However, there exists a wide range of possible flight paths due to varying environmental conditions and solar balloon configurations. EarthSHAB is one such software that was designed to support flight planning using the weather forecasts and balloon properties to predict the flight path of a solar balloon. We compare EarthSHAB-simulated flight paths to a set of observed flight paths for the 3.5-m diameter heliotrope design called the “Cloudskimmer.” Using the criteria that the modeled paths must fall within 5% of the observations to be considered successful, we found that EarthSHAB successfully predicted the Cloudskimmer ascent rate and average float altitude 10% and 90% of the time, respectively. We also found that the average difference in the observed and predicted landing locations was 97 km and landing times were 54 ± 38 min. Significant deviations between the observed and predicted ascent rates and excursions at float were found to be associated with heavy payloads and convective cloud development, respectively. Significance Statement Solar balloons are used to lift scientific instruments into the lower stratosphere for hours at a time to study chemical explosions, earthquakes, stratospheric aerosols, and more. The flight paths of solar balloons can be difficult to predict due to variability in their design and surrounding environment. We evaluate the accuracy of EarthSHAB, a software that predicts the altitude profile and horizontal trajectory of a solar balloon using inputs such as the weather, balloon size, and balloon mass. Our results suggest that for the balloon design used in this study, EarthSHAB is best suited for modeling the behavior of balloons with lightweight payloads that do not fly within or directly above clouds.

Lien, Jessica M. [Sandia National Laboratories, Al↗
NASA NTRS1981

Experimental validation of a numerical model predicting the charging characteristics of Teflon and Kapton under electron beam irradiation

The effect differential charging of spacecraft thermal control surfaces is assessed by studying the dynamics of the charging process. A program to experimentally validate a computer model of the charging process was established. Time resolved measurements of the surface potential were obtained for samples of Kapton and Teflon irradiated with a monoenergetic electron beam. Results indicate that the computer model and experimental measurements agree well and that for Teflon, secondary emission is the governing factor. Experimental data indicate that bulk conductivities play a significant role in the charging of Kapton.

Hazelton, R. C.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Transport model predictions of 225 Ac production cross sections via energetic p, d and α irradiation of 232 Th targets

Monte Carlo transport codes PHITS and MCNP6 were used to calculate the production cross sections of 225,227 Ac, 227,229 Th, 223,225 Ra, and 229,230,231 Pa via the bombardment of a 232 Th target with energetic protons, deuterons, and α-particles. The incident projectile energies ranged between 10 and 800 MeV/nucleon. When possible, the predicted production cross sections were compared with the available experimental data and other predictions. Here, the degree of the codes’ abilities to match the measured data provides a qualitative assessment of the codes’ abilities to predict data from similar, but unmeasured, projectile/target systems. In addition, a comparison between calculated cross sections and data may provide insight into possible improvements in the physics models employed by those transport codes.

223Ra↗
NASA NTRS1984

Thermal barrier coating life prediction model development

Thermal barrier coatings (TBCs) for turbine airfoils in high-performance engines represent an advanced materials technology that has both performance and durability benefits. In order to achieve these benefits, however, the TBC system must be reliable. Prediction of the lives of two types of strain-tolerant and oxidation-resistant TBC systems that are produced by commercial coating suppliers to the gas turbine industry is examined. The plasma sprayed TBC system, composed of a low-pressure plasma spray (LPPS) applied oxidation resistant NiCrAlY bond coating and an air-plasma-sprayed yttria (8 percent) partially stabilized zirconia insulative layer is applied by both Chromalloy and Klock. The second type of TBC is applied by the electron beam-physical vapor depositon (EB-PVD) process by Temescal.

Strangman, T. E.↗
NASA NTRS1987

A prediction model of the depth-of-discharge effect on the cycle life of a storage cell

Cycle life requirements are very high for batteries used in aerospace applications in low Earth orbit. The data base required to establish confidence in a particular cell design is thus both extensive and expensive. Reliable accelerated cycle life testing and performance decay modeling represent attractive alternatives to real-time tests of cycle life. In light of certain long-term cycle life test results, this paper examines a very simple performance decay model developed earlier. Application of that model to available data demonstrates a rigid relationship between a battery's expected cycle life and the depth of discharge of cycling. Further, modeling analysis of the data suggests that a significantly improved cycle life can be obtained with advanced components, materials, and designs; and that cycle life can be reliably predicted from the results of accelerated testing.

Thaller, Lawrence H.↗
NASA NTRS1987

A prediction model of the depth-of-discharge effect on the cycle life of a storge cell

Cycle life requirements are very high for batteries used in aerospace applications in low earth orbit. The data base required to establish confidence in a particular cell design is thus both extensive and expensive. Reliable accelerated cycle life testing and performance decay modeling represent attractive alternatives to real-time tests of cycle life. In light of certain long-term cycle life test results, this paper examines a very simple performance decay model developed earlier. Application of that model to available data demonstrates a rigid relationship between a battery's expected cycle life and the depth of discharge of cycling. Further, modeling analysis of the data suggests that a significantly improved cycle life can be obtained with advanced components, materials, and designs; and that cycle life can be reliably predicted from the results of accelerated testing.

Thaller, Lawrence H.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessment of Global Precipitation Forecast for use in Landslide Prediction Model

Extreme rainfall events along with landslide prone surface conditions can be extremely damaging, resulting in loss of property, infrastructure, and life. Although, a global Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) model provides routinely near real-time dynamic landslide characterization using Integrated Multi-Satellite Precipitation Retrievals for Global Precipitation Mission (IMERG), but it does not provide information on prediction of landslides into future. Forecasting landslide events at a global scale presents an area of open research.

Sana Khan↗