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At least 559 records · Page 31

Machine learning based algorithms for uncertainty quantification in numerical weather prediction models

Complex numerical weather prediction models incorporate a variety of physical processes, each described by multiple alternative physical schemes with specific parameters. The selection of the physical schemes and the choice of the corresponding physical parameters during model configuration can significantly impact the accuracy of model forecasts. There is no combination of physical schemes that works best for all times, at all locations, and under all conditions. It is therefore of considerable interest to understand the interplay between the choice of physics and the accuracy of the resulting forecasts under different conditions. This paper demonstrates the use of machine learning techniques to study the uncertainty in numerical weather prediction models due to the interaction of multiple physical processes. The first problem addressed herein is the estimation of systematic model errors in output quantities of interest at future times, and the use of this information to improve the model forecasts. The second problem considered is the identification of those specific physical processes that contribute most to the forecast uncertainty in the quantity of interest under specified meteorological conditions. In order to address these questions we employ two machine learning approaches, random forests and artificial neural networks. The discrepancies between model results and observations at past times are used to learn the relationships between the choice of physical processes and the resulting forecast errors. Numerical experiments are carried out with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The output quantity of interest is the model precipitation, a variable that is both extremely important and very challenging to forecast. The physical processes under consideration include various micro-physics schemes, cumulus parameterizations, short wave, and long wave radiation schemes. The experiments demonstrate the strong potential of machine learning approaches to aid the study of model errors.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Diffusion model approach to simulating electron-proton scattering events

Generative artificial intelligence is a fast-growing area of research offering various avenues for exploration in high-energy nuclear physics. In this work, we explore the use of generative models for simulating electron-proton collisions relevant to experiments like the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility and the future Electron-Ion Collider (EIC). These experiments play a critical role in advancing our understanding of nucleons and nuclei in terms of quark and gluon degrees of freedom. The use of generative models for simulating collider events faces several challenges such as the sparsity of the data, the presence of global or eventwide constraints, and steeply falling particle distributions. In this work, we focus on the implementation of diffusion models for the simulation of electron-proton scattering events at EIC energies. Our results demonstrate that diffusion models can reproduce relevant observables such as momentum distributions and correlations of particles, momentum sum rules, and the leading electron kinematics, all of which are of particular interest in electron-proton collisions. Although the sampling process is relatively slow compared to other machine-learning architectures, we find diffusion models can generate high-quality samples. We foresee various applications of our work including inference for nuclear structure, interpretable generative machine learning, and searches of physics beyond the Standard Model. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Verification of Data-Driven Models of Physical Phenomena using Interpretable Approximation

Machine-learned models, specifically neural networks, are increasingly used as “closures” or “constitutive models” in engineering simulators to represent fine-scale physical phenomena that are too computationally expensive to resolve explicitly. However, these neural net models of unresolved physical phenomena tend to fail unpredictably and are therefore not used in mission-critical simulations. In this report, we describe new methods to authenticate them, i.e., to determine the (physical) information content of their training datasets, qualify the scenarios where they may be used and to verify that the neural net, as trained, adhere to physics theory. We demonstrate these methods with neural net closure of turbulent phenomena used in Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes equations. We show the types of turbulent physics extant in our training datasets, and, using a test flow of an impinging jet, identify the exact locations where the neural network would be extrapolating i.e., where it would be used outside the feature-space where it was trained. Using Generalized Linear Mixed Models, we also generate explanations of the neural net (à la Local Interpretable Model agnostic Explanations) at prototypes placed in the training data and compare them with approximate analytical models from turbulence theory. Finally, we verify our findings by reproducing them using two different methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗

PINN surrogate of Li-ion battery models for parameter inference, Part I: Implementation and multi-fidelity hierarchies for the single-particle model

To plan and optimize energy storage demands that account for Li-ion battery aging dynamics, techniques need to be developed to diagnose battery internal states accurately and rapidly. Here, this study seeks to reduce the computational resources needed to determine a battery's internal states by replacing physics-based Li-ion battery models - such as the single-particle model (SPM) and the pseudo-2D (P2D) model - with a physics-informed neural network (PINN) surrogate. The surrogate model makes high-throughput techniques, such as Bayesian calibration, tractable to determine battery internal parameters from voltage responses. This manuscript is the first of a two-part series that introduces PINN surrogates of Li-ion battery models for parameter inference (i.e., state-of-health diagnostics). In this first part, a method is presented for constructing a PINN surrogate of the SPM. A multi-fidelity hierarchical training, where several neural nets are trained with multiple physics-loss fidelities is shown to significantly improve the surrogate accuracy when only training on the governing equation residuals. The implementation is made available in a companion repository (https://github.com/NREL/PINNSTRIPES). The techniques used to develop a PINN surrogate of the SPM are extended in Part II for the PINN surrogate for the P2D battery model, and explore the Bayesian calibration capabilities of both surrogates.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Simulation and Emulation of X-Ray Diffraction from Dynamic Compression Experiments

Many important aspects of the dynamic thermo-mechanical response of materials occur at the mesoscale, i.e. a physical scale of interactions smaller than what can be adequately described by homogenous behaviors, yet larger than the scale of the atomic lattice. Concurrent advancements in computational power, continuum theory, and experimental diagnostics are enabling unprecedented understanding of such interactions. However, we cannot develop a sufficient level of confidence in such mesoscale capability until the constitutive description of the underlying constituents is reliably representative of their actual physical behavior. Therefore, there is a strong need to combine experimental, modeling, and data-science techniques to validate models of the thermomechanical response of individual single crystals. One experimental diagnostic with high potential impact to shock physics and materials science is in-situ x-ray diffraction. This paper is primarily focused on simulation of x-ray diffraction in shock physics, but with an aim toward quantifying parametric uncertainty of simulation models. Here, we develop and demonstrate a data-science and model-driven approach to constrain the parameterization of continuum models of crystal lattice deformation associated with the shock response of crystalline materials. The framework is built around the connection between continuum hydrodynamic simulations of lattice deformation and a new Bragg diffraction simulation code, BarberShop. The dynamic deformation of a crystal lattice is modeled using the DiscoFlux model within an arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian hydrodynamic code, FLAG. These detailed continuum simulations of lattice deformation can be computationally slow, thus a statistical model is used to emulate the evolution of lattice deformation fields in time and across the considered model parameter space. Emulated lattice deformation fields can then be generated rapidly for any combination of physics model parameters. In turn, these fields can be fed into BarberShop to realize a rapid prediction of Bragg diffraction patterns associated with particular values of physics model parameters. The framework enables parameterization of the single crystal model to obtain Bragg diffraction patterns that most closely resemble a corresponding measurement. Furthermore, the framework naturally provides sensitivities of the lattice deformation to the physics parameters. We highlight the utility of this framework through the application to a synthetic closed-loop inverse problem leading to the parameterization of a single crystal material model. As a model problem, we consider the dynamic response of the energetic molecular crystal, cyclotrimethylenetrinitramine (or RDX), under dynamic compression induced by simulated flyer plate impact experiments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Enhancement of Distribution System State Estimation Using Pruned Physics-Aware Neural Networks: Preprint

Realizing complete observability in the three-phase distribution system remains a challenge that hinders the implementation of classical state estimation algorithms. In this paper, a new method so-called pruned physics-aware neural network (P2N2) is developed to improve the voltage estimation accuracy in the distribution system. The method relies on the physical grid topology, which is used to design the connections between different hidden layers of a neural network model. To verify the proposed method, a numerical simulation based on one-year smart meter data of load consumptions for threephase power flow is developed to generate the measurement and voltage state data. The IEEE 123 node system is selected as the test network to benchmark the proposed algorithm against the classical weighted least squares (WLS). Numerical results show that P2N2 outperforms WLS, in terms of data redundancy and estimation accuracy.

distribution systems state estimation↗

Deception-Based Cyber Attacks on Hierarchical Control Systems using Domain-Aware Koopman Learning

Industrial control systems are subject to cyber attacks that produce physical consequences. These attacks can be both hard to detect and protracted. Here, we focus on deception-based sensor bias attacks made against a hierarchical control system where the attacker attempts to be stealthy. We develop a a data-driven, optimization-based attacker model and use the Koopman operator to represent the system dynamics in a domain-aware and computationally efficient manner. Using this model, we compute several different attacks against a high-fidelity commercial building emulator and compare the impacts of those attacks to each other. Finally, we discuss some computational considerations and identify avenues for future research.

koopman operator, Cyber-Physical Security, machine↗

Exact representations of many-body interactions with restricted-Boltzmann-machine neural networks

Restricted Boltzmann machines (RBMs) are simple statistical models defined on a bipartite graph which have been successfully used in studying more complicated many-body systems, both classical and quantum. In this work, we exploit the representation power of RBMs to provide an exact decomposition of many-body contact interactions into one-body operators coupled to discrete auxiliary fields. This construction generalizes the well known Hirsch's transform used for the Hubbard model to more complicated theories such as pionless effective field theory in nuclear physics, which we analyze in detail. Finally, we also discuss possible applications of our mapping for quantum annealing applications and conclude with some implications for RBM parameter optimization through machine learning.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

A Machine Learning Framework for Modeling Ensemble Properties of Atomically Disordered Materials

Atomic disorder can strongly influence material properties such as charge transport, optical response, and catalytic activity. However, efficiently modeling these disorder effects remains challenging for first-principles methods due to the cost of sampling large configurational spaces and computing complex physical quantities. Recent advances of machine learning techniques, particularly graph neural networks (GNNs), has enabled the efficient and accurate predictions of complex material properties, offering promising tools for studying disordered systems. In this work, we present a general machine-learning-assisted computational framework that integrates equivariant GNNs with Monte Carlo simulations to compute the thermodynamic and ensemble-averaged functional properties of disordered materials. Using the surface-termination-disordered MXene monolayer Ti 3 C 2 T 2–x as a representative system, we find that electrical conductivity exhibits an emergent peak near the order–disorder phase transition temperature due to the interplay between electron scattering and doping. In contrast, optical conductivity remains largely insensitive to local atomic disorder and reflects the global surface chemical composition. These results highlight the role of atomic disorder in affecting material properties and demonstrate the potential of our approach for statistically modeling disorder effects in a wide range of materials such as high-entropy alloys and spin liquids.

MXene↗

Machine learning and process-based modeling of spatiotemporal changes in active layer thickness across Alaska

Permafrost degradation poses a growing threat to infrastructure stability and ecosystem resilience in the rapidly warming Arctic. We investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics of active layer thickness (ALT) across Alaska by integrating field observations, environmental datasets, a physically based Stefan model, and machine learning (ML) techniques. Using weather projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP 2-4.5 and SSP 5-8.5), we assessed ALT sensitivity to projected future weather conditions. The random forest (RF) model outperformed the Stefan approach in predicting ALT on the training dataset (R² = 0.84 vs. 0.53) but demonstrated lower generalizability on the test dataset (R² = 0.24 vs. 0.54). The root mean square error (RMSE) for the RF model for training and testing ranged from 14 to 22 cm, compared to 17 and 18 cm for the Stefan model. Variable importance analysis revealed that mean annual temperature and slope angle were the strongest predictors of ALT, accounting for 19% and 18% of the variance, respectively, followed by sediment transport index (14%) and stream power index (11%). Comparative analysis of baseline ALT predictions showed the Stefan model tended to project a thicker active layer (mean ± SD: 65 ± 16 cm), compared to the RF model (mean ± SD: 59 ± 8.8) cm). Both models indicated a latitudinal gradient in ALT, with shallower depths at higher latitudes. Projected ALT increases by 2100 were estimated at 3.3 ± 2.2 cm under SSP 2-4.5 and 5.9 ± 4.0 cm under SSP 5-8.5 for the ML model, whereas the Stefan model projected substantially larger increases of 13 ± 2.6 cm (SSP 2-4.5) and 28 ± 4.4 cm (SSP5-8.5). Spatial analysis showed the greatest ALT increases in northern Alaska, with relatively smaller changes in southern regions. These findings highlight the complex, multifactorial nature of ALT dynamics and the value of hybrid modeling approaches. As rising temperatures accelerate permafrost thaw, changes in ALT can disrupt ecosystems, damage infrastructures, and enhance the release of stored soil carbon, highlighting the urgent need for improved predictive capabilities to inform adaptation strategies in the Arctic.

Climate sciences↗

Electronic structure theory on modeling short-range noncovalent interactions between amino acids

While short-range noncovalent interactions (NCIs) are proving to be of importance in many chemical and biological systems, these atypical bindings happen within the so-called van der Waals envelope and pose an enormous challenge for current computational methods. We introduce SNCIAA, a database of 723 benchmark interaction energies of short-range noncovalent interactions between neutral/charged amino acids originated from protein x-ray crystal structures at the “gold standard” coupled-cluster with singles, doubles, and perturbative triples/complete basis set [CCSD(T)/CBS] level of theory with a mean absolute binding uncertainty less than 0.1 kcal/mol. Subsequently, a systematic assessment of commonly used computational methods, such as the second-order Møller−Plesset theory (MP2), density functional theory (DFT), symmetry-adapted perturbation theory (SAPT), composite electronic-structure methods, semiempirical approaches, and the physical-based potentials with machine learning (IPML) on SNCIAA is carried out. It is shown that the inclusion of dispersion corrections is essential even though these dimers are dominated by electrostatics, such as hydrogen bondings and salt bridges. Overall, MP2, ωB97M-V, and B3LYP+D4 turned out to be the most reliable methods for the description of short-range NCIs even in strongly attractive/repulsive complexes. SAPT is also recommended in describing short-range NCIs only if the δMP2 correction has been included. The good performance of IPML for dimers at close-equilibrium and long-range conditions is not transferable to the short-range. We expect that SNCIAA will assist the development/improvement/validation of computational methods, such as DFT, force-fields, and ML models, in describing NCIs across entire potential energy surfaces (short-, intermediate-, and long-range NCIs) on the same footing.

Chemistry↗

Extended Physics-Informed Neural Networks (XPINNs): A Generalized Space-Time Domain Decomposition Based Deep Learning Framework for Nonlinear Partial Differential Equations

Here we propose a generalized space-time domain decomposition approach for the physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) to solve nonlinear partial differential equations (PDEs) on arbitrary complex-geometry domains. The proposed framework, named eXtended PINNs ( X P I N N s ), further pushes the boundaries of both PINNs as well as conservative PINNs (cPINNs), which is a recently proposed domain decomposition approach in the PINN framework tailored to conservation laws. Compared to PINN, the XPINN method has large representation and parallelization capacity due to the inherent property of deployment of multiple neural networks in the smaller subdomains. Unlike cPINN, XPINN can be extended to any type of PDEs. Moreover, the domain can be decomposed in any arbitrary way (in space and time), which is not possible in cPINN. Thus, XPINN offers both space and time parallelization, thereby reducing the training cost more effectively. In each subdomain, a separate neural network is employed with optimally selected hyperparameters, e.g., depth/width of the network, number and location of residual points, activation function, optimization method, etc. A deep network can be employed in a subdomain with complex solution, whereas a shallow neural network can be used in a subdomain with relatively simple and smooth solutions. We demonstrate the versatility of XPINN by solving both forward and inverse PDE problems, ranging from one-dimensional to three-dimensional problems, from time-dependent to time-independent problems, and from continuous to discontinuous problems, which clearly shows that the XPINN method is promising in many practical problems. The proposed XPINN method is the generalization of PINN and cPINN methods, both in terms of applicability as well as domain decomposition approach, which efficiently lends itself to parallelized computation. The XPINN code is available on h t t p s : / / g i t h u b . c o m / A m e y a J a g t a p / X P I N N s .

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Progress in end-to-end optimization of fundamental physics experimental apparata with differentiable programming

In this article we examine recent developments in the research area concerning the creation of end-to-end models for the complete optimization of measuring instruments. The models we consider rely on differentiable programming methods and on the specification of a software pipeline including all factors impacting performance — from the data-generating processes to their reconstruction and the inference on the parameters of interest — along with the careful specification of a utility function well aligned with the end goals of the experiment. Building on previous studies originated within the MODE Collaboration, we focus specifically on applications involving instruments for particle physics experimentation, as well as industrial and medical applications that share the detection of radiation as their data-generating mechanism. This report illustrates the most recent advancements in the area, and outlines, for each of the discussed applications as well as for automatic differentiation itself, ongoing and future work.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Machine Learning Reveals Memory of the Parent Phases in Ferroelectric Relaxors Ba(Ti$_{1-x}$,Zr x )O 3

Machine learning has been establishing its potential in multiple areas of condensed matter physics and materials science. Here, in this work, an unsupervised machine learning workflow is developed and used within a framework of first-principles-based atomistic simulations to investigate phases, phase transitions, and their structural origins in ferroelectric relaxors, Ba(Ti 1-x ,Zr x )O 3 . The applicability of the workflow is first demonstrated to identify phases and phase transitions in the parent compound, a prototypical ferroelectric BaTiO 3 . Then the workflow is applied for Ba(Ti 1-x ,Zrx)O 3 with x ≤ 0.25 to reveal i) that some of the compounds bear a subtle memory of BaTiO 3 phases beyond the point of the pinched phase transition, which could contribute to their enhanced electromechanical response; ii) the existence of peculiar phases with delocalized precursors of nanodomains—likely candidates for the controversial polar nanoregions; and iii) nanodomain phases for the largest concentrations of x.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

A kinetic-based regularization method for data science applications

We propose a physics-based regularization technique for function learning, inspired by statistical mechanics. By drawing an analogy between optimizing the parameters of an interpolator and minimizing the energy of a system, we introduce corrections that impose constraints on the lower-order moments of the data distribution. This minimizes the discrepancy between the discrete and continuum representations of the data, in turn allowing to access more favorable energy landscapes, thus improving the accuracy of the interpolator. Our approach improves performance in both interpolation and regression tasks, even in high-dimensional spaces. Unlike traditional methods, it does not require empirical parameter tuning, making it particularly effective for handling noisy data. We also show that thanks to its local nature, the method offers computational and memory efficiency advantages over Radial Basis Function interpolators, especially for large datasets.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Deep convolutional neural networks for multi-scale time-series classification and application to disruption prediction in fusion devices

The multi-scale, mutli-physics nature of fusion plasmas makes predicting plasma events challenging. Recent advances in deep convolutional neural network architectures (CNN) utilizing dilated convolutions enable accurate predictions on sequences which have long-range, multi-scale characteristics, such as the time-series generated by diagnostic instruments observing fusion plasmas. Here we apply this neural network architecture to the popular problem of disruption prediction in fusion tokamaks, utilizing raw data from a single diagnostic, the Electron Cyclotron Emission imaging (ECEi) diagnostic from the DIII-D tokamak. ECEi measures a fundamental plasma quantity (electron temperature) with high temporal resolution over the entire plasma discharge, making it sensitive to a number of potential pre-disruptions markers with different temporal and spatial scales. Promising, initial disruption prediction results are obtained training a deep CNN with large receptive field ({$\sim$}30k), achieving an $F_1$-score of {$\sim$}91\% on individual time-slices using only the ECEi data.

convolutional neural networks↗

Development of lean, efficient, and fast physics-framed deep-learning-based proxy models for subsurface carbon storage

In this work, we present deep-learning-based surrogate models for CCUS developed with four different algorithms and a physics-framed two-phase flow problem involving displacement of water by CO 2 . The deep-learning models were trained using 3D datasets describing the pressure plume, CO 2 saturation plume, and water extraction rate generated by numerical simulation. The hyperparameters defining the architecture of the neural networks were optimized to determine the slimmest network size and training parameters that give the most efficient performance at the least training cost. To develop a robust model that closely mimics the governing physical laws, the discretized form of the two-phase fluid transport equation was used to formulate the supervised deep-learning task. The algorithms investigated in this study predicted the data to above 95% accuracy, with the multi-layer perceptron model demonstrating the best performance by balancing training speed, prediction time, and prediction accuracy with lean network capacity. Furthermore, the surrogate models simultaneously predict reservoir pressure and CO 2 saturation in every grid block, including the surface well extraction rate and bottomhole pressure, at all simulation times for a given static model realization in just a few seconds on a standard desktop computer. A key outcome of this study is that limits can be placed on network design parameters to avoid over designing neural networks, with associated efficiencies in training and prediction times. This is very useful because large volumes of data may be generated in CCUS projects and over-design of neural network architectures imposes penalties that are antithetical to the goal of near-real time forecasting.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Building spatial symmetries into parameterized quantum circuits for faster training

Abstract Practical success of quantum learning models hinges on having a suitable structure for the parameterized quantum circuit. Such structure is defined both by the types of gates employed and by the correlations of their parameters. While much research has been devoted to devising adequate gate-sets, typically respecting some symmetries of the problem, very little is known about how their parameters should be structured. In this work, we show that an ideal parameter structure naturally emerges when carefully considering spatial symmetries (i.e. the symmetries that are permutations of parts of the system under study). Namely, we consider the automorphism group of the problem Hamiltonian, leading us to develop a circuit construction that is equivariant under this symmetry group. The benefits of our novel circuitstructure, called ORB, are numerically probed in several ground-state problems. We find a consistent improvement (in terms of circuit depth, number of parameters required, and gradient magnitudes) compared to literature circuit constructions.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗