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At least 559 records · Page 31

Vulnerabilities, Influences and Interaction Paths: Failure Data for Integrated System Risk Analysis

We describe graph-based analysis methods for identifying and analyzing cross-subsystem interaction risks from subsystem connectivity information. By discovering external and remote influences that would be otherwise unexpected, these methods can support better communication among subsystem designers at points of potential conflict and to support design of more dependable and diagnosable systems. These methods identify hazard causes that can impact vulnerable functions or entities if propagated across interaction paths from the hazard source to the vulnerable target. The analysis can also assess combined impacts of And-Or trees of disabling influences. The analysis can use ratings of hazards and vulnerabilities to calculate cumulative measures of the severity and importance. Identification of cross-subsystem hazard-vulnerability pairs and propagation paths across subsystems will increase coverage of hazard and risk analysis and can indicate risk control and protection strategies.

Malin, Jane T.↗

Impact of Satellite Viewing-Swath Width on Global and Regional Aerosol Optical Thickness Statistics and Trends

We use the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite aerosol optical thickness (AOT) product to assess the impact of reduced swath width on global and regional AOT statistics and trends. Alongtrack and across-track sampling strategies are employed, in which the full MODIS data set is sub-sampled with various narrow-swath (approximately 400-800 km) and single pixel width (approximately 10 km) configurations. Although view-angle artifacts in the MODIS AOT retrieval confound direct comparisons between averages derived from different sub-samples, careful analysis shows that with many portions of the Earth essentially unobserved, spatial sampling introduces uncertainty in the derived seasonal-regional mean AOT. These AOT spatial sampling artifacts comprise up to 60%of the full-swath AOT value under moderate aerosol loading, and can be as large as 0.1 in some regions under high aerosol loading. Compared to full-swath observations, narrower swath and single pixel width sampling exhibits a reduced ability to detect AOT trends with statistical significance. On the other hand, estimates of the global, annual mean AOT do not vary significantly from the full-swath values as spatial sampling is reduced. Aggregation of the MODIS data at coarse grid scales (10 deg) shows consistency in the aerosol trends across sampling strategies, with increased statistical confidence, but quantitative errors in the derived trends are found even for the full-swath data when compared to high spatial resolution (0.5 deg) aggregations. Using results of a model-derived aerosol reanalysis, we find consistency in our conclusions about a seasonal-regional spatial sampling artifact in AOT Furthermore, the model shows that reduced spatial sampling can amount to uncertainty in computed shortwave top-ofatmosphere aerosol radiative forcing of 2-3 W m(sup−2). These artifacts are lower bounds, as possibly other unconsidered sampling strategies would perform less well. These results suggest that future aerosol satellite missions having significantly less than full-swath viewing are unlikely to sample the true AOT distribution well enough to obtain the statistics needed to reduce uncertainty in aerosol direct forcing of climate.

remote sensing↗

Estimating Effects Of Rain On Ground/Satellite Communication

LeRC-SLAM provides static and dynamic statistical assessment of impact of attenuation by rain on communication link established between Earth terminal and geosynchronous satellite. Program designed for use in specification, design, and assessment of satellite link for any terminal location in continental United States. IBM PC version written in Microsoft QuickBASIC, and Macintosh version written in Microsoft Basic.

Manning, R. M.↗

The Effect of Stochastic Acceleration on the Dynamics of Solar Energetic Particles in the Heliosphere

Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) are crucial in space weather phenomena, impacting space-based technologies and human activities in space. Understanding the dynamics of SEPs, including their acceleration and transport mechanisms, is essential for improving predictive models and mitigating adverse effects. This study investigates the impact of stochastic acceleration (SA) on the dynamics of SEPs within the heliosphere. By integrating stochastic acceleration into a SEP transport model, we assess its impact relative to diffusive shock acceleration (DSA). The investigation utilizes the Adaptive Mesh Particle Simulator (AMPS) within the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) to simulate SEP dynamics, incorporating solar wind parameters and turbulence from the Alfven Wave Solar Model (AWSoM). To do this, we solve the focused transport equation to model the propagation of SEPs along magnetic field lines, extending these lines to 5 AU to incorporate the potential effects of pitch angle scattering beyond 1 AU. This aspect could notably impact the decay phase of a SEP event. Modeling the transport of SEPs is coupled with the simulation of solar wind dynamics, the interplanetary magnetic field, and the characteristics of Alfven wave turbulence. This presentation covers the modeling approach used in this research, the characterization of the impact of the stochastic acceleration, and the role of pitch angle scattering at various heliocentric distances on the dynamics of the SEP events' decay phase.

SEP↗

Effect of Space Radiation on TES Detectors Performance

The Athena mission and its X-IFU instrument (X-ray Integral Field Unit) will be positioned at the Sun-Earth Lagrangian point L1, where it will be subject to solar wind (low flux plasma of 95% protons and 5% alpha particles) with energy below 0.1 MeV, and to galactic cosmic rays and solar flares (energetic protons, alpha particles, and electrons) with energies up to hundreds of MeV for protons and the GeV for heavier ions. Some of these particles will go through the satellite and hit the focal plane assembly and hence the detectors. These detectors will be TES (Transition-edge sensor) microcalorimeters, flown for the first time in such an environment. In order to ensure the performance of this type of detectors throughout the duration of such mission, it is critical to study the impact of the radiation on their behavior. Indeed, although a lot of reference material exist for semiconductor detectors such as CCDs, little is currently known about the impact of radiation on TES detectors. These energetic events could cause local heating or damage to the detectors and affect their performance. In this work, we describe how we designed a test campaign to assess the impact of L1 radiation on TES detectors for Athena/X-IFU-like missions and present the results of the tests. Analyses includes assessing changes in the pulse shapes and energy resolution of the detectors measured at 55 mK after several radiation dose steps performed at 4 K.

Sophie Beaumont↗

Fan Performance Testing and Oxygen Compatibility Assessment Results for Future Space Suit Life Support Systems

An advanced portable life support system (PLSS) for the space suit will require a small, robust, and energy-efficient system to transport the ventilation gas through the space suit for lunar Extravehicular Activity (EVA) operations. A trade study identified and compared ventilation transport technologies in commercial, military, and space applications to determine which technologies could be adapted for EVA use. Based on the trade study results, five commercially available, 24volt fans were selected for performance testing at various pressures and flow rates. Measured fan parameters included fan delta-pressures, input voltages, input electrical currents, and in some cases motor windings electrical voltages and currents. In addition, a follow-on trade study was performed to identify oxygen compatibility issues and assess their impact on fan design. This paper outlines the results of the fan performance characterization testing, as well as the results from the oxygen compatibility assessment.

Jennings, Mallory A.↗

Fan Performance Testing and Oxygen Compatibility Assessment Results for Future Space Suit Life Support Systems

An advanced portable life support system (PLSS) for the space suit will require a small, robust, and energyefficient system to transport the ventilation gas through the space suit for lunar Extravehicular Activity (EVA) operations. A trade study identified and compared ventilation transport technologies in commercial, military, and space applications to determine which technologies could be adapted for EVA use. Based on the trade study results, five commercially available, 24-volt fans were selected for performance testing at various pressures and flow rates. Measured fan parameters included fan delta-pressures, input voltages, input electrical currents, and in some cases motor windings electrical voltages and currents. In addition, a follow-on trade study was performed to identify oxygen compatibility issues and assess their impact on fan design. This paper outlines the results of the fan performance characterization testing, as well as the results from the oxygen compatibility assessment.

Paul, Heather L.↗

Impact of prescribed diabatic heating on short range weather forecasts

Using the 9 layer general circulation model developed at the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences (GLAS), several 4 to 5 day integrations were made to assess the impact that latent heating processes (supersaturation and moist convective) have on the model forecasts. In an earlier study by Shukla (1981) it was hypothesized that because of strong interaction between dynamics and moist convection, small initial errors grow very fast and make short range forecasting difficult. The purpose of this study was to examine if prescribed heating rates can improve the forecasts for a few days.

Marx, L.↗

Computational Study of the Impact of Unsteadiness on the Aerodynamic Performance of a Variable- Speed Power Turbine

The design-point and off-design performance of an embedded 1.5-stage portion of a variable-speed power turbine (VSPT) was assessed using Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) analyses with mixing-planes and sector-periodic, unsteady RANS analyses. The VSPT provides one means by which to effect the nearly 50 percent main-rotor speed change required for the NASA Large Civil Tilt-Rotor (LCTR) application. The change in VSPT shaft-speed during the LCTR mission results in blade-row incidence angle changes of as high as 55 . Negative incidence levels of this magnitude at takeoff operation give rise to a vortical flow structure in the pressure-side cove of a high-turn rotor that transports low-momentum flow toward the casing endwall. The intent of the effort was to assess the impact of unsteadiness of blade-row interaction on the time-mean flow and, specifically, to identify potential departure from the predicted trend of efficiency with shaft-speed change of meanline and 3-D RANS/mixing-plane analyses used for design.

Welch, Gerard E.↗

THE ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF THE SPACE PROGRAM

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the economic impact of the amazing space program presented in the preceding papers. My function is to view the space program objectively as an economist so as to assess its impact upon the Nation's economy as a whole and upon certain regions in particular. In order to be objective, I will not take the extreme view that our entire lives will be changed by this program overnight-we will not all be wearing air-conditioned Moonsuits in 2 years and commuting to work by individual miniaturized Rocketpacks. An attempt will be made to avoid the other extreme of thinking that the space program is the greatest boondoggle since the Pyramids; it is not merely a form of scientific leaf-raking on a gigantic scale. My definition of the space program includes the program of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and some work of other agencies doing related space exploration, particularly the Department of Defense. In essence, I hope to answer the question: What will NASA's program mean to the participants in the Nation's economy?

ECONOMICS↗

Design definition study of a life/cruise fan technology V/STOL aircraft. Volume 2, addendum 2: Program risk assessment

The results are presented of a risk assessment study conducted on two technology aircraft. The aircraft system components were reviewed and assessed for risk based on: (1) complexity relative to state-of-the-art, (2) manufacturing and qualification testing, (3) availability and delays, and (4) cost/schedule impact. These assessments were based on five risk nomenclatures: low, minor, moderate, high, and extreme. Each aircraft system was assigned an overall risk rating depending upon its contribution to the capability of the aircraft to achieve the performance goals. The slightly lower Sabreliner performance margin is due to the restricted flight envelope, the fixed landing gear, and internal fuel capacity. The Sabreliner with retractable gear and allowed to fly at its best speed and altitude would reflect performance margins similar to the New Airframe. These significant margins, inherent with the MCAIR three gas generator/three fan propulsion system, are major modifiers to risk assessment of both aircraft. The estimated risk and the associated key system and performance areas are tabulated.

Source record↗

Assessment of Current Global and Regional Mean Sea Level Estimates Based on the TOPEX/Poseidon Jason-1 and 2 Climate Data Record

Recent developments in Precise Orbit Determinations (POD) due to in particular to revisions to the terrestrial reference frame realization and the time variable gravity (TVG) continues to provide improvements to the accuracy and stability of the PO directly affecting mean sea level (MSL) estimates. Long-term credible MSL estimates require the development and continued maintenance of a stable reference frame, along with vigilant monitoring of the performance of the independent tracking systems used to calculate the orbits for altimeter spacecrafts. The stringent MSL accuracy requirements of a few tenths of an mm/yr are particularly essential for mass budget closure analysis over the relative short time period of Jason-l &2, GRACE, and Argo coincident measurements. In an effort to adhere to cross mission consistency, we have generated a full time series of experimental orbits (GSFC stdlllO) for TOPEX/Poseidon (TP), Jason-I, and OSTM based on an improved terrestrial reference frame (TRF) realization (ITRF2008), revised static (GGM03s), and time variable gravity field (Eigen6s). In this presentation we assess the impact of the revised precision orbits on inter-mission bias estimates, and resultant global and regional MSL trends. Tide gauge verification results are shown to assess the current stability of the Jason-2 sea surface height time series that suggests a possible discontinuity initiated in early 2010. Although the Jason-2 time series is relatively short (approximately 3 years), a thorough review of the entire suite of geophysical and environmental range corrections is warranted and is underway to maintain the fidelity of the record.

Beckley, B. D.↗

Preliminary Investigation of Impact of Technological Impairment on Trajectory-Based Operations

The Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) incorporates collaborative air traffic management and Trajectory-Based Operations (TBO) in order to significantly increase the capacity, efficiency, and predictability of operations in the National Airspace System (NAS), without decreasing safety. This is enabled by airspace users and service providers sharing knowledge about operations that allows prediction of the complete 4D flight trajectory with as little uncertainty as possible. Additionally, new software and hardware technology is critical to reaching NextGen goals, especially with regard to TBO. What if the technologies that are critical for TBO were to be impaired or fail completely? Should there be a malfunction of a piece of the technology, it must be ensured that the whole system does not break down completely or suffer severe impairment. Instead, operations need to be maintained proportionally to the problem and safety needs to be ensured (graceful degradation). This paper proposes a systematic framework to investigate the vulnerability of TBO to technology disruption, and determine the impact of technological impairment on TBO. Two representative technologies are chosen for detailed investigation and the impact of their impairment on the degradation of TBO is illustrated using a weather-related scenario. XXXX There are several possible directions of future work. We believe it is desirable to develop methods to quantitatively assess the impact of technological disruption on TBO and to have the simulation tools to validate the impact. The availability of prognostics and health management methods could be leveraged to predict technological failure/disruption, thus predicting how TBO will be a ected, and possibly pro-actively mitigating the impact. It is important to develop large-scale scenarios where the e ect of technological impairment is prominent, and identify methods to quantitatively assess the extent of TBO degradation. An important goal of such an investigation is the development of failure-resistant resilient trajectory-based oper- ations. Resilience14, 15 is the property of a system to \bounce back" and resume at least a signi cant portion of its functionalities after degradation due to technological impairment(s). A systems resilience includes properties such as \bu ering capacity" (quantifying disruptions the system can absorb or adapt to without a fundamental breakdown in performance or in the systems structure), \ exibility" (ability to restructure itself in response to external changes or pressures), "margin" (how closely the system is currently operating rela- tive to one or another kind of performance boundary), \tolerance" (whether the system gracefully degrades as stress/pressure increase, or collapses quickly when pressure exceeds adaptive capacity), etc. Future work needs to focus on quantifying and improving the resilience of TBO, and identifying resilient design solutions for aviation.

TBO↗

Multimodel Analysis of Future Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Functioning

Land use and climate changes both affect terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we used three combinations of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1xRCP26, SSP3xRCP60, and SSP5xRCP85) as input to three dynamic global vegetation models to assess the impacts and associated uncertainty on several ecosystem functions: terrestrial carbon storage and fluxes, evapotranspiration, surface albedo, and runoff. We also performed sensitivity simulations in which we kept either land use or climate (including atmospheric CO2) constant from year 2015 on to calculate the isolated land use versus climate effects. By the 2080–2099 period, carbon storage increases by up to 87 ± 47 Gt (SSP1xRCP26) compared to present day, with large spatial variance across scenarios and models. Most of the carbon uptake is attributed to drivers beyond future land use and climate change, particularly the lagged effects of historic environmental changes. Future climate change typically increases carbon stocks in vegetation but not soils, while future land use change causes carbon losses, even for net agricultural abandonment (SSP1xRCP26). Evapotranspiration changes are highly variable across scenarios, and models do not agree on the magnitude or even sign of change of the individual effects. A calculated decrease in January and July surface albedo (up to −0.021 ± 0.007 and −0.004 ± 0.004 for SSP5xRCP85) and increase in runoff (+67 ± 6 mm/year) is largely driven by climate change. Overall, our results show that future land use and climate change will both have substantial impacts on ecosystem functioning. However, future changes can often not be fully explained by these two drivers and legacy effects have to be considered.

Krause, A.↗

Multimodel Analysis of Future Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Functioning

Land use and climate changes both affect terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we used three combinations of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1xRCP26, SSP3xRCP60, and SSP5xRCP85) as input to three dynamic global vegetation models to assess the impacts and associated uncertainty on several ecosystem functions: terrestrial carbon storage and fluxes, evapotranspiration, surface albedo, and runoff. We also performed sensitivity simulations in which we kept either land use or climate (including atmospheric CO2) constant from year 2015 on to calculate the isolated land use versus climate effects. By the 2080–2099 period, carbon storage increases by up to 87 ± 47 Gt (SSP1xRCP26) compared to present day, with large spatial variance across scenarios and models. Most of the carbon uptake is attributed to drivers beyond future land use and climate change, particularly the lagged effects of historic environmental changes. Future climate change typically increases carbon stocks in vegetation but not soils, while future land use change causes carbon losses, even for net agricultural abandonment (SSP1xRCP26). Evapotranspiration changes are highly variable across scenarios, and models do not agree on the magnitude or even sign of change of the individual effects. A calculated decrease in January and July surface albedo (up to −0.021 ± 0.007 and −0.004 ± 0.004 for SSP5xRCP85) and increase in runoff (+67 ± 6 mm/year) is largely driven by climate change. Overall, our results show that future land use and climate change will both have substantial impacts on ecosystem functioning. However, future changes can often not be fully explained by these two drivers and legacy effects have to be considered.

land use change↗

The Effects of Ultra-Long-Range Flights on the Alertness and Performance of Aviators

This investigation assessed the impact of ultra-long-range (ULR) simulator flights, departing either in the morning or late evening, on the alertness and performance of 17 commercial aviators. Immediately prior to and throughout each flight, alertness and performance were assessed via a computerized test of sustained attention, subjective questionnaires, and "hand-flying" tasks. There were fatigue-related effects on the majority of assessments, and the nature of these effects was consistent across the vigilance and self-report measures. However, the operational "hand-flying" manuevers proved insensitive to the impact of fatigue probably due to procedural factors. Regardless, the results of the present study suggest that fatigue associated with prolonged wakefulness in ULR flight operations will interact with flight schedules due to circadian and homeostatic influences. In this study, the pilots departing at night were at a greater initial disadvantage (during cruise) than pilots who departed earlier in the day; whereas those who departed earlier tended to be most impaired towards the end of the flight prior to landing. In real-world operations, airlines should consider the ramifications of flight schedules and what is known about human sleep and circadian rhythms to optimize safety.

Caldwell, John A.↗

Adjoint-Based Diagnostics in Atmospheric Data Assimilation

With the adjoint of a data assimilation system, the impact of any or all assimilated observations on measures of forecast or analysis skill can be estimated accurately and efficiently. The approach is especially well-suited for assessing the impact of hyper-spectral satellite instruments on numerical weather forecasts because it easily allows aggregation of results in terms of individual data types, channels or locations, all computed simultaneously based on a single pass of the Adjoint- system. This talk 'provides a general overview of the use of Adjoint-based diagnostic tools in data assimilation. We will focus on the theoretical basis and practical implementation of these tools, as well as their application to specific problems. Adjoint-based Impact calculations will be compared with results from standard observing system experiments (OSEs) and their application to related problems, such as the calibration of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) will be discussed.

Gelaro, Ronald↗