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At least 559 records · Page 31

Short-term experimental flooding impacts soil biogeochemistry but not aboveground vegetation in a coastal forest

Rising sea levels and intensifying storms increase flooding pressure on coastal forests, triggering tree mortality, ecosystem transitions, and changes to the coastal carbon cycle. However, the mechanisms that drive coastal forest mortality remain elusive due to the complex interplay between belowground and aboveground processes during flooding disturbances and limitations of observations typically reported in coastal forest mortality studies. We used an ecosystem-scale manipulation to simulate hurricane-level flooding of a coastal forest and explore the individual and interactive impacts of inundation and salinity. Monitoring real-time soil conditions and tree physiological responses, we observed consistent impacts on soil biogeochemistry aligned with belowground drivers of tree mortality, but no consistent responses in aboveground vegetation immediately following flooding. Our findings provide empirically based insight into the earliest stages of a hypothesized forest mortality spiral and offer critical benchmarks for predicting coastal forest resilience in the face of accelerating climate change.

coastal forests↗

Validation of the DESI 2024 Lyα forest BAO analysis using synthetic datasets

The first year of data from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) contains the largest set of Lyman-α (Lyα) forest spectra ever observed. This data, collected in the DESI Data Release 1 (DR1) sample, has been used to measure the Baryon Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) feature at redshift z = 2.33. In this work, we use a set of 150 synthetic realizations of DESI DR1 to validate the DESI 2024 Lyα forest BAO measurement presented in [1]. The synthetic data sets are based on Gaussian random fields using the log-normal approximation. We produce realistic synthetic DESI spectra that include all major contaminants affecting the Lyα forest. The synthetic data sets span a redshift range 1.8 < z < 3.8, and are analyzed using the same framework and pipeline used for the DESI 2024 Lyα forest BAO measurement. To measure BAO, we use both the Lyα auto-correlation and its cross-correlation with quasar positions. We use the mean of correlation functions from the set of DESI DR1 realizations to show that our model is able to recover unbiased measurements of the BAO position. We also fit each mock individually and study the population of BAO fits in order to validate BAO uncertainties and test our method for estimating the covariance matrix of the Lyα forest correlation functions. Finally, we discuss the implications of our results and identify the needs for the next generation of Lyα forest synthetic data sets, with the top priority being to simulate the effect of BAO broadening due to non-linear evolution.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Soil organic matter availability and climate drive latitudinal patterns in bacterial diversity from tropical to cold temperate forests

Bacteria are one of the most abundant and diverse groups of micro-organisms and mediate many critical terrestrial ecosystem processes. Despite the crucial ecological role of bacteria, our understanding of their large-scale biogeography patterns across forests, and the processes that determine these patterns lags significantly behind that of macroorganisms. Here, we evaluated the geographic distributions of bacterial diversity and their driving factors across nine latitudinal forests along a 3,700-km north–south transect in eastern China, using high-throughput 16S rRNA gene sequencing. Four of 32 phyla detected were dominant: Acidobacteria , Actinobacteria , Alphaproteobacteria and Chloroflexi (relative abundance > 5%). Significant increases in bacterial richness and phylogenetic diversity were observed for temperate forests compared with subtropical or tropical forests. The soil organic matter (SOM) mineralisation rate (SOM min , an index of SOM availability) explained the largest significant variations in bacterial richness. Variation partition analysis revealed that the bacterial community structure was closely correlated with environmental variables and geographic distance, which together explained 80.5% of community variation. Among all environmental factors, climatic features (MAT and MAP) were the best predictors of the bacterial community structure, whereas soil pH and SOM min emerged as the most important edaphic drivers of the bacterial community structure. Plant functional traits (community weighted means of litter N content) and diversity resulted in weak but significant correlations with the bacterial community structure. Our findings provide new evidence of bacterial biogeography patterns from tropical to cold temperate forests. Additionally, the results indicated a close linkage among soil bacterial diversity, climate and SOM decomposition, which is critical for predicting continental-scale responses under future climate change scenarios and promoting sustainable forest ecosystem services.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Storms Are an Important Driver of Change in Tropical Forests

Tropical forest dynamics and composition have changed over recent decades, but the proximate drivers of these changes remain unclear. Investigations into these trends have focused on increasing drought stress, CO 2 , temperature, and fires, whereas convective storms are generally overlooked. We argue that existing literature provides clear support for the importance of storms as drivers of forest change. We reanalyze the largest plot-based study of tropical forest carbon dynamics to show that lightning frequency—an indicator of storm activity—strongly predicts forest carbon storage and residence time, and its inclusion improves model fit and weakens evidence for the effects of high temperatures. Convective storm activity has increased 5%–25% per decade over the past half century. Extrapolating from historic trends, we estimate that storms likely contribute ca. 50% of the reported increases in biomass mortality across Amazonia, with all realistic combinations of assumptions indicating a possible range of 12%–118%. Spatial variation in storm activity shows weak relationships with drought, demonstrating that forests can experience high drought stress, high storm activity, or both. Accordingly, we hypothesise that convective storms are among the most important drivers of tropical forest change, and as such, they require significant research investment to avoid misguiding science, policy, and management.

biomass carbon↗

Divergent Responses of Forest Soil Microbial Communities under Elevated CO 2 in Different Depths of Upper Soil Layers

Numerous studies have shown that the continuous increase of atmosphere CO 2 concentrations may have profound effects on the forest ecosystem and its functions. However, little is known about the response of belowground soil microbial communities under elevated atmospheric CO 2 (eCO 2 ) at different soil depth profiles in forest ecosystems. In this paper, we examined soil microbial communities at two soil depths (0 to 5 cm and 5 to 15 cm) after a 10-year eCO 2 exposure using a high-throughput functional gene microarray (GeoChip). The results showed that eCO 2 significantly shifted the compositions, including phylogenetic and functional gene structures, of soil microbial communities at both soil depths. Key functional genes, including those involved in carbon degradation and fixation, methane metabolism, denitrification, ammonification, and nitrogen fixation, were stimulated under eCO 2 at both soil depths, although the stimulation effect of eCO 2 on these functional markers was greater at the soil depth of 0 to 5 cm than of 5 to 15 cm. Moreover, a canonical correspondence analysis suggested that NO 3 -N, total nitrogen (TN), total carbon (TC), and leaf litter were significantly correlated with the composition of the whole microbial community. This study revealed a positive feedback of eCO 2 in forest soil microbial communities, which may provide new insight for a further understanding of forest ecosystem responses to global CO 2 increases. The concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) has continuously been increasing since the industrial revolution. Understanding the response of soil microbial communities to elevated atmospheric CO 2 (eCO 2 ) is important for predicting the contribution of the forest ecosystem to global atmospheric change. This study analyzed the effect of eCO 2 on microbial communities at two soil depths (0 to 5 cm and 5 to 15 cm) in a forest ecosystem. Our findings suggest that the compositional and functional structures of microbial communities shifted under eCO 2 at both soil depths. Finally, more functional genes involved in carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus cycling were stimulated under eCO 2 at the soil depth of 0 to 5 cm than at the depth of 5 to 15 cm.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ecosystem Resilience and Limitations Revealed by Soil Bacterial Community Dynamics in a Bark Beetle-Impacted Forest

ABSTRACT Forested ecosystems throughout the world are experiencing increases in the incidence and magnitude of insect-induced tree mortality with large ecologic ramifications. Interestingly, correlations between water quality and the extent of tree mortality in Colorado montane ecosystems suggest compensatory effects from adjacent live vegetation that mute responses in less severely impacted forests. To this end, we investigated whether the composition of the soil bacterial community and associated functionality beneath beetle-killed lodgepole pine was influenced by the extent of surrounding tree mortality. The most pronounced changes were observed in the potentially active bacterial community, where alpha diversity increased in concert with surrounding tree mortality until mortality exceeded a tipping point of ~30 to 40%, after which diversity stabilized and decreased. Community structure also clustered in association with the extent of surrounding tree mortality with compositional trends best explained by differences in NH 4 + concentrations and C/N ratios. C/N ratios, which were lower in soils under beetle-killed trees, further correlated with the relative abundance of putative nitrifiers and exoenzyme activity. Collectively, the response of soil microorganisms that drive heterotrophic respiration and decay supports observations of broader macroscale threshold effects on water quality in heavily infested forests and could be utilized as a predictive mechanism during analogous ecosystem disruptions. IMPORTANCE Forests around the world are succumbing to insect infestation with repercussions for local soil biogeochemistry and downstream water quality and quantity. This study utilized microbial community dynamics to address why we are observing watershed scale biogeochemical impacts from forest mortality in some impacted areas but not others. Through a unique “tree-centric” approach, we were able to delineate plots with various tree mortality levels within the same watershed to see if surviving surrounding vegetation altered microbial and biogeochemical responses. Our results suggest that forests with lower overall tree mortality levels are able to maintain “normal” ecosystem function, as the bacterial community appears resistant to tree death. However, surrounding tree mortality influences this mitigating effect with various linear and threshold responses whereupon the bacterial community and its function are altered. Our study lends insight into how microscale responses propagate upward into larger-scale observations, which may be useful for future predictions during analogous disruptions.

16S DNA↗

A meta-analysis of soil microbial biomass responses to forest disturbances

Climate warming is likely to increase the frequency and severity of forest disturbances, with uncertain consequences for soil microbial communities and their contribution to ecosystem C dynamics. To address this uncertainty, we conducted a meta-analysis of 139 published soil microbial responses to forest disturbances. These disturbances included abiotic (fire, harvesting, storm) and biotic (insect, pathogen) disturbances. We hypothesized that soil microbial biomass would decline following forest disturbances, but that abiotic disturbances would elicit greater reductions in microbial biomass than biotic disturbances. In support of this hypothesis, across all published studies, disturbances reduced soil microbial biomass by an average of 29.4%. However, microbial responses differed between abiotic and biotic disturbances. Microbial responses were significantly negative following fires, harvest, and storms (48.7, 19.1, and 41.7% reductions in microbial biomass, respectively). In contrast, changes in soil microbial biomass following insect infestation and pathogen-induced tree mortality were non-significant, although biotic disturbances were poorly represented in the literature. When measured separately, fungal and bacterial responses to disturbances mirrored the response of the microbial community as a whole. Changes in microbial abundance following disturbance were significantly positively correlated with changes in microbial respiration. We propose that the differential effect of abiotic and biotic disturbances on microbial biomass may be attributable to differences in soil disruption and organic C removal from forests among disturbance types. Altogether, these results suggest that abiotic forest disturbances may significantly decrease soil microbial abundance, with corresponding consequences for microbial respiration. Further studies are needed on the effect of biotic disturbances on forest soil microbial communities and soil C dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Variations of soil microbial community structures beneath broadleaved forest trees in temperate and subtropical climate zones

Global warming has shifted climate zones poleward or upward. Furthermore, understanding the responses and mechanism of microbial community structure and functions relevant to natural climate zone succession is challenged by the high complexity of microbial communities. Here, we examined soil microbial community in three broadleaved forests located in the Wulu Mountain (WLM, temperate climate), Funiu Mountain (FNM, at the border of temperate and subtropical climate zones), or Shennongjia Mountain (SNJ, subtropical climate). Although plant species richness decreased with latitudes, the microbial taxonomic α-diversity increased with latitudes, concomitant with increases in soil total and available nitrogen and phosphorus contents. Phylogenetic NRI (Net Relatedness Index) values increased from 0.718 in temperate zone (WLM) to 1.042 in subtropical zone (SNJ), showing a shift from over dispersion to clustering likely caused by environmental filtering such as low pH and nutrients. Similarly, taxonomybased association networks of subtropical forest samples were larger and tighter, suggesting clustering. In contrast, functional α-diversity was similar among three forests, but functional gene networks of the FNM forest significantly (P < 0.050) differed from the others. A significant correlation (R = 0.616, P < 0.001) between taxonomic and functional β-diversity was observed only in the FNM forest, suggesting low functional redundancy at the border of climate zones. Using a strategy of space-fortime substitution, we predict that poleward climate range shift will lead to decreased microbial taxonomic α-diversities in broadleaved forest.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Long-Term Persistence of Three Microbial Wildfire Biomarkers in Forest Soils

Long-term monitoring of microbial communities in the rhizosphere of post-fire forests is currently one of the key knowledge gaps. Knowing the time scale of the effects is indispensable to aiding post-fire recovery in vulnerable woodlands, including holm oak forests, that are subjected to a Mediterranean climate, as is the case with forests that are found in protected areas such as the Sierra Nevada National and Natural Park in southeastern Spain. We took rhizosphere soil samples from burned and unburned holm oak trees approximately 3, 6, and 9 years after the 2005 fire that devastated almost 3500 ha in southeastern Spain. We observed that the prokaryotic communities are recovering but have not yet reached the conditions observed in the unburned forest. A common denominator between this fire and other fires is the long-term persistence of three ecosystem recovery biomarkers—specifically, higher proportions of the genera Arthrobacter, Blastococcus, and Massilia in soil microbial communities after a forest fire. These pyrophilous microbes possess remarkable resilience against adverse conditions, exhibiting traits such as xerotolerance, nitrogen mineralization, degradation of aromatic compounds, and copiotrophy in favorable conditions. Furthermore, these biomarkers thrive in alkaline environments, which persist over the long term following forest fires. The relative abundance of these biomarkers showed a decreasing trend over time, but they were still far from the values of the control condition. In conclusion, a decade does not seem to be enough for the complete recovery of the prokaryotic communities in this Mediterranean ecosystem.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sensitivity of Optical Satellites to Estimate Windthrow Tree-Mortality in a Central Amazon Forest

Windthrow (i.e., trees broken and uprooted by wind) is a major natural disturbance in Amazon forests. Images from medium-resolution optical satellites combined with extensive field data have allowed researchers to assess patterns of windthrow tree-mortality and to monitor forest recovery over decades of succession in different regions. Although satellites with high spatial-resolution have become available in the last decade, they have not yet been employed for the quantification of windthrow tree-mortality. Here, we address how increasing the spatial resolution of satellites affects plot-to-landscape estimates of windthrow tree-mortality. We combined forest inventory data with Landsat 8 (30 m pixel), Sentinel 2 (10 m), and WorldView 2 (2 m) imagery over an old-growth forest in the Central Amazon that was disturbed by a single windthrow event in November 2015. Remote sensing estimates of windthrow tree-mortality were produced from Spectral Mixture Analysis and evaluated with forest inventory data (i.e., ground true) by using Generalized Linear Models. Field measured windthrow tree-mortality (3 transects and 30 subplots) crossing the entire disturbance gradient was 26.9 ± 11.1% (mean ± 95% CI). Although the three satellites produced reliable and statistically similar estimates (from 26.5% to 30.3%, p < 0.001), Landsat 8 had the most accurate results and efficiently captured field-observed variations in windthrow tree-mortality across the entire gradient of disturbance (Sentinel 2 and WorldView 2 produced the second and third best results, respectively). As expected, mean-associated uncertainties decreased systematically with increasing spatial resolution (i.e., from Landsat 8 to Sentinel 2 and WorldView 2). However, the overall quality of model fits showed the opposite pattern. We suggest that this reflects the influence of a relatively minor disturbance, such as defoliation and crown damage, and the fast growth of natural regeneration, which were not measured in the field nor can be captured by coarser resolution imagery. Our results validate the reliability of Landsat imagery for assessing plot-to-landscape patterns of windthrow tree-mortality in dense and heterogeneous tropical forests. Satellites with high spatial resolution can improve estimates of windthrow severity by allowing the quantification of crown damage and mortality of lower canopy and understory trees. However, this requires the validation of remote sensing metrics using field data at compatible scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing Earthquake-Induced Tree Mortality in Temperate Forest Ecosystems: A Case Study from Wenchuan, China

Earthquakes can produce significant tree mortality, and consequently affect regional carbon dynamics. Unfortunately, detailed studies quantifying the influence of earthquake on forest mortality are currently rare. The committed forest biomass carbon loss associated with the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China is assessed by a synthetic approach in this study that integrated field investigation, remote sensing analysis, empirical models and Monte Carlo simulation. The newly developed approach significantly improved the forest disturbance evaluation by quantitatively defining the earthquake impact boundary and detailed field survey to validate the mortality models. Based on our approach, a total biomass carbon of 10.9 Tg·C was lost in Wenchuan earthquake, which offset 0.23% of the living biomass carbon stock in Chinese forests. Tree mortality was highly clustered at epicenter, and declined rapidly with distance away from the fault zone. It is suggested that earthquakes represent a signif icant driver to forest carbon dynamics, and the earthquake-induced biomass carbon loss should be included in estimating forest carbon budgets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Legacy of Episodic Climatic Events in Shaping Temperate, Broadleaf Forests

In humid, broadleaf-dominated forests where gap dynamics and partial canopy mortality appears to dominate the disturbance regime at local scales, paleoecological evidence shows alteration at regional-scales associated with climatic change. Yet, little evidence of these broad-scale events exists in extant forests. To evaluate the potential for the occurrence of large-scale disturbance, we used 76 tree-ring collections spanning approx. 840 000 sq km and 5327 tree recruitment dates spanning approx. 1.4 million sq km across the humid eastern United States. Rotated principal component analysis indicated a common growth pattern of a simultaneous reduction in competition in 22 populations across 61 000 km2. Growth-release analysis of these populations reveals an intense and coherent canopy disturbance from 1775 to 1780, peaking in 1776. The resulting time series of canopy disturbance is so poorly described by a Gaussian distribution that it can be described as ''heavy tailed,'' with most of the years from 1775 to 1780 comprising the heavy-tail portion of the distribution. Historical documents provide no evidence that hurricanes or ice storms triggered the 1775-1780 event. Instead, we identify a significant relationship between prior drought and years with elevated rates of disturbance with an intense drought occurring from 1772 to 1775. We further find that years with high rates of canopy disturbance have a propensity to create larger canopy gaps indicating repeated opportunities for rapid change in species composition beyond the landscape scale. Evidence of elevated, regional-scale disturbance reveals how rare events can potentially alter system trajectory: a substantial portion of old-growth forests examined here originated or were substantially altered more than two centuries ago following events lasting just a few years. Our recruitment data, comprised of at least 21 species and several shade-intolerant species, document a pulse of tree recruitment at the subcontinental scale during the late-1600s suggesting that this event was severe enough to open large canopy gaps. These disturbances and their climatic drivers support the hypothesis that punctuated, episodic, climatic events impart a legacy in broadleaf-dominated forests centuries after their occurrence. Given projections of future drought, these results also reveal the potential for abrupt, meso- to large-scale forest change in broadleaf-dominated forests over future decades.

Climatology↗

Quantifying Boreal Forest Structure and Composition Using UAV Structure from Motion

The vast extent and inaccessibility of boreal forest ecosystems are barriers to routine monitoring of forest structure and composition. In this research, we bridge the scale gap between intensive but sparse plot measurements and extensive remote sensing studies by collecting forest inventory variables at the plot scale using an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and a structure from motion (SfM) approach. At 20 Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) subplots in interior Alaska, we acquired overlapping imagery and generated dense, 3D, RGB (red, green, blue) point clouds. We used these data to model forest type at the individual crown scale as well as subplot-scale tree density (TD), basal area (BA), and aboveground biomass (AGB). We achieved 85% cross-validation accuracy for five species at the crown level. Classification accuracy was maximized using three variables representing crown height, form, and color. Consistent with previous UAV-based studies, SfM point cloud data generated robust models of TD (r(sup 2) = 0.91), BA (r(sup 2) = 0.79), and AGB (r(sup 2) = 0.92), using a mix of plot- and crown-scale information. Precise estimation of TD required either segment counts or species information to differentiate black spruce from mixed white spruce plots. The accuracy of species-specific estimates of TD, BA, and AGB at the plot scale was somewhat variable, ranging from accurate estimates of black spruce TD (+/−1%) and aspen BA (−2%) to misallocation of aspen AGB (+118%) and white spruce AGB (−50%). These results convey the potential utility of SfM data for forest type discrimination in FIA plots and the remaining challenges to develop classification approaches for species-specific estimates at the plot scale that are more robust to segmentation error.

aboveground biomass↗

Pervasive shifts in forest dynamics in a changing world

Forest dynamics are the processes of recruitment, growth, death, and turnover of the constituent tree species of the forest community. These processes are driven by disturbances both natural and anthropogenic. McDowell et al. review recent progress in understanding the drivers of forest dynamics and how these are interacting and changing in the context of global climate change. The authors show that shifts in forest dynamics are already occurring, and the emerging pattern is that global forests are tending toward younger stands with faster turnover as old-growth forest with stable dynamics are dwindling.

land-use change↗

Front Range Wildland Fires: Evaluating the Efficacy of Remote Sensing Imagery in Monitoring Forest Fuels Treatment Methods

Over the last several decades, wildfire frequency and severity in forested areas along Colorado’s Front Range have increased due to a buildup of fuels. This has led to an increase in forest treatments, as well as an increased need to evaluate the success of these treatments. Remote sensing products offer an efficient and cost-effective way to monitor forest treatments; however, not all remote sensing products and analysis techniques have been explored by Coloradan land managers. Specifically, project partners at the Colorado State Forest Service (CSFS) and the Colorado Forest Restoration Institute (CFRI) were interested in using an effective and streamlined method of mapping canopy cover to better monitor forest treatment success. To support their needs, the NASA DEVELOP Front Range Wildland Fires team explored National Agricultural Imagery Program (NAIP) imagery at different spatial resolutions and numbers of training points with NASA’s Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) Data Elevation Model (DEM) as a predictor in addition to NAIP imagery spectral predictors. From this analysis, we created classified canopy cover rasters, and compared accuracy metrics across model iterations. We also determined that the best performing model, with an overall accuracy of 0.900 uses 2021 NAIP imagery at 2-meter resolution, 800 training points, 200 testing points, does not use topographic predictors, and reclassifies shadow pixels via a pre-selected NDVI threshold.

Remote Sensing↗

Assessing Simulations of Forest Hurricane Disturbance and Recovery in Puerto Rico by ELM-FATES Using Field Measurements

In the past three decades, Puerto Rico (PR) experienced five hurricanes that met or exceeded category three, and they caused severe forest structural damage and elevated tree mortality. To improve our mechanistic understanding of hurricane impacts on tropical forests and assess hurricane-affected forest dynamics in Earth system models, we use in situ forest measurements at the Bisley Experimental Watersheds in Northeast PR to evaluate the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator coupled with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Land Model (ELM-FATES). The observations show that before Hurricane Hugo, 77.3% of the aboveground biomass (AGB) is from the shade-tolerant plant function type (PFT). The Hugo-induced mortality rates are over ~50%, and they induce a ~39% AGB reduction, which recovers to a level like the pre-Hugo condition in 2014, following a second, lower intensity hurricane, Georges. We perform numerical experiments that simulate damage from Hugo and Georges on the forests, including defoliation, sapwood and structural biomass damage, and hurricane-induced mortality. ELM-FATES can reasonably represent coexistence between the two PFTs–light-demanding and shade-tolerant–for both the pre-Hugo and post-Hugo conditions. The model represents a reasonable size distribution of mid-and large-sized trees although it underestimates AGB, likely due to the overestimated nonhurricane mortality. ELM-FATES temporarily stimulated leaf biomass and diameter increment after Georges, an effect that should be tested with observations of future hurricane defoliation events. This research indicates that addressing model-data mismatches in tree mortality and understory dynamics are essential to simulation of more extreme hurricane effects under climate change.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A belowground perspective on the drought sensitivity of forests: Towards improved understanding and simulation

Predicted increases in the frequency and intensity of droughts across the temperate biome have highlighted the need to examine the extent to which forests may differ in their sensitivity to water stress. At present, a rich body of literature exists on how leaf- and stem-level physiology influence tree drought responses; however, less is known regarding the dynamic interactions that occur below ground between roots and soil physical and biological factors. Hence, there is a need to better understand how and why processes occurring below ground influence forest sensitivity to drought. Here, we review what is known about tree species’ below ground strategies for dealing with drought, and how physical and biological characteristics of soils interact with rooting strategies to influence forest sensitivity to drought. Then, we highlight how a below ground perspective of drought can be used in models to reduce uncertainty in predicting the ecosystem consequences of droughts in forests. Lastly, we describe the challenges and opportunities associated with managing forests under conditions of increasing drought frequency and intensity, and explain how a below ground perspective on drought may facilitate improved forest management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Tradeoffs in forest resilience to satellite-based estimates of water and productivity losses

Climate change is expected to intensify the global hydrological cycle via increased evapotranspiration (ET). Changes in ET have important consequences for water-related ecosystem services as well as for forest productivity. Forests play a critical role in ET: active trees sequester carbon at the expense of losing water, yet if they are not active, water remains in the trees, but productivity stalls. Here, we estimated the capacity of forests to recover (resilience) from extreme water or productivity losses based on modeled ET through remote sensing methods across the conterminous USA. Results show there is a spatial tradeoff in resilience to water or productivity losses. Forests were more resilient to water loss in the drier west, and more resilient to productivity loss in the wetter east. Still, resilience was highly heterogeneous across the continent. Projections under climate change indicate both declines and increases of up to 13% in forest resilience, with broad regional trends but high spatial heterogeneity within regions. This study brings crucial satellite-based insights on how water dynamics, and consequentially productivity and water provision in forests, might be impacted by climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗