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Improved Algorithm to Estimate Convective and Stratiform Rain from TRMM Microwave Radiometer Data

The rain rates associated with Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSS) deduced from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) follow the well known log-normal type frequency distribution characteristic of conventional radars and rain gauges. On the other hand, the current microwave radiometer rain retrieval algorithms cannot give good representations of convective and stratiform precipitation. Thus they capture poorly this log-normal character. In particular, this is noticed clearly over land areas. The objective of the present study is to improve TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) retrievals of convective and stratiform rain to a level comparable to the PR. For this purpose, we have developed a TMI rain retrieval algorithm that depends primarily on the 85 GHz brightness temperatures (Tbs) and their spatial distribution. We emphasize the 85 GHz channel because of its fine footprint size (about 5.5 km) and strong extinction property. The other spectral channels, because they are poorer in these respects, are given less importance. The brightness temperatures and spatial distribution information in the 85 GHz allows us to detect thunderstorms, or cumulonimbus clouds (Cbs), that are in different stages of development, as well as stratiform rain outside of these Cbs. Utilizing our retrieval technique, we have produced maps of convective and stratiform rain for several MCS events over land and ocean that agree well with those given by the PR. On average, the convective and stratiform rain rates given by our technique have an accuracy of about 15 % with respect to those given by the PR.

Prabhakara, C.↗

Quantum-Assisted Variational Segmentation for Image-to-Image Wildfire Detection Using Satellite Data

The quantum computing community has been searching for suitable applications to demonstrate the potential of near-term quantum devices. Quantum machine learning is a potential candidate, particularly using models that cannot be efficiently simulated with classical computers [1, 2]. This work focuses on a transition phase of quantum computers where the quantum machine learning model is still simulable classically but projected not to be simulable as the size of the model grows. Ultimately quantum computers may have advantages for high-dimensional real-world problems. Due to the limited number of qubits in current noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) devices, the direct application of quantum computers in high dimensional data is not feasible. To remedy this problem, an encoder-decoder architecture can be utilized. The encoder model would transform the high-dimensional data into a compact representation, to a level that small quantum computers can be used today (or in the near future), and the decoder would take the quantum processed outputs back to the high-dimensional space. Addressing the two challenges of quantum machine learning, this work investigates a hybrid supervised generative model with a quantum Ising Born machine embedded as the latent distribution. The model contains four main parts (Figure 1.a.): (1) a U-NET architecture responsible for learning segmentation flow, (2) a Prior network responsible for learning an encoded latent distribution of the input data, (3) a Born machine which represents the latent distribution, and (4) a Posterior network in charge of learning the joint encoded latent distribution of inputs and target data. The initial model, proposed by [3], is optimized by (1) maximizing the overlap of the prior and posterior latent distributions, and (2) minimizing the segmentation loss. The proposed model is designed to be investigated in a simulation environment applied to the real-world application of wildfire segmentation. Specifically, the model is designed to solve the patchy wildfire segmentations of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) by taking the MODIS observations and using Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite’s (VIIRS) consistent wildfire product as the target. The model solves patchy wildfire segmentations and provides insight into the epistemic errors sourced from model variation. The model utilizes the Born machine as a QUBO solver to represent the latent space as a Bernoulli distribution. The proposed configuration allows the variational segmentation model to leverage the true quantum probabilistic nature and derive a more expressive latent configuration, increasing the model performance in describing wildfire segmentations. The quantum probabilistic information of the Born machine is directly incorporated in the Kullback-Leibler divergence loss in the prior and posterior distributions, forcing the Bernoulli latent distribution to maximize the overlap of input and joint input-target distributions. The proposed model is then trained and compared with a baseline only consisting of direct Bernoulli latent distribution with no Born machine representing the latent space. The models are evaluated based on the segmentation metrics, such as precision, recall, intersect of union, with uncertainty boundaries accounting for the stochastic nature of the model. Our findings show that even in low latent-dimensional space (due to the limit in computational power of the classical quantum simulator), we are able to effectively capture the latent representation and hence the model performs better than the baseline. The findings are a projection for scaling the model into higher dimensional latent space with the Born machine surpassing the baseline performance. Figure 1. Sub-figure (a) demonstrates the architecture for the training phase. The model consists of a Prior and Posterior network that encode inputs and joint input-target data into compact representations, respectively. The Born machine represents the latent distribution, and the U-NET branch learns the segmentation patterns of the data. The stochasticity is introduced to the U-NET through its last layer to create meaningful but stochastic segmentations. Sub-figure (b) represents the inference phase where the model takes the stochastic behavior from the prior network and injects that into the U-NET. Each attempt of inference will generate different but similar segmentations from the same distribution of the wildfire event. REFERENCES [1] Coyle, B., Mills, D., Danos, V., & Kashefi, E. (2020). The Born supremacy: quantum advantage and training of an Ising Born machine. npj Quantum Information, 6(1), 1-11. [2] Liu, J. G., & Wang, L. (2018). Differentiable learning of quantum circuit born machines. Physical Review A, 98(6), 062324. [3] Kohl, S., Romera-Paredes, B., Meyer, C., De Fauw, J., Ledsam, J. R., Maier-Hein, K., ... & Ronneberger, O. (2018). A probabilistic u-net for segmentation of ambiguous images. Advances in neural information processing systems, 31.

quantum machine learning↗

Launch Complex 34, SWMU CCO542022 DNAPL Source Zone Operations, Maintenance, and Monitoring, Site-Wide Long-Term Monitoring, and Hot Spot 6 Air Sparge System Annual Performance Monitoring Report Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida

This Annual Performance Monitoring Report (PMR) for the Dense Non-Aqueous Phase Liquid (DNAPL) Source Zone (DSZ), Site-Wide Long-Term Monitoring (LTM), and Hot Spot (HS) 6 Air Sparge (AS) System presents the results of Year 13 operation of the hydraulic containment (HC) Interim Measure (IM), the results of performance monitoring direct-push technology (DPT) sampling and monitoring well sampling conducted in the DSZ, results of the biennial site-wide LTM event, and the results of operations and performance sampling of the HS 6 AS IM at Launch Complex 34 (LC34), located at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station (CCSFS), Florida. This site has been designated Solid Waste Management Unit (SWMU) CC054 under the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) Corrective Action Program. For the site-wide biennial LTM event, a total of 55 monitoring wells were sampled for volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in February 2023 and one well was sampled for polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in December 2022. One well planned for VOC sampling was found to be destroyed and could not be sampled (CW0002). The LTM wells are screened in two lithologic zones: Layer 1 (0 to 25 feet below land surface [bls]) and Layer 2 (25 to 30 ft bls), and are located in the outlying areas of LC34 to monitor groundwater conditions within the Low-Concentration Plume (LCP), defined as concentrations exceeding Groundwater Cleanup Target Levels (GCTLs), and the High-Concentration Plume (HCP), defined as concentrations exceeding Natural Attenuation Default Concentrations (NADCs). Results from the biennial sampling event indicated overall plume stability and delineation for the plume, which extends over 300 acres. The operational period for Year 13 of the HCS was from April 1, 2022 to March 31, 2023. Operational runtime for the system was 90 percent during Year 13, with downtime events attributed to planned maintenance, system repairs, and power outages. As of March 31, 2023, a total of 313,673,241 cumulative gallons of groundwater containing 88,337 pounds of VOCs have been removed by the HCS. Influent concentrations of trichloroethene (TCE) have decreased since startup from approximately 280,000 μg/L (January 2010) to 12,000 μg/L (March 2023). During the reporting period, all effluent concentrations from the HCS (aqueous and vapor) were below regulatory reporting limits, indicating the system continues to operate as intended. Performance monitoring was conducted in December 2022 within the DSZ to evaluate TCE contamination. Groundwater samples were collected via DPT at nine locations, consistent with previous events between 2017 and 2021. Full vertical profile sampling was completed at each DPT from 8 to 98 feet bls, at 5-foot intervals. The DPT performance monitoring results are summarized in this PMR. The results revealed TCE remains at concentrations greater than 11,000 μg/L in the DSZ (1-percent solubility, indicative of DNAPL) at eight of the nine DPT locations and at depths ranging from 8 to 98 feet bls. In addition to DPT sampling, groundwater samples were collected from deep monitoring wells in the DSZ area (Layers 7 and 8) in December 2022 to verify vertical delineation. Layer 7/8 monitoring well results were non-detect in December 2022, with exception of three wells (IW0162, IW043D2, and IW044D2), where TCE, cis-1,2-dichloroethene (cDCE), and/or vinyl chloride (VC) were detected above GCTLs. These wells are screened 105 to 115 feet bls, which is below the existing recovery well capture zone. TCE was first detected in IW0162 in December 2021 and has since been sampled at least monthly to monitor TCE concentrations. The maximum TCE concentration during this operational period was 15,000 μg/L at IW0162 in March 2023. Because of the increased TCE concentrations in this well, a new recovery well (RW21D), screened 86 to 106 feet bls, was installed in January 2023 and incorporated into existing HCS operations. The HS 6 AS IM was initiated in 2018 with 160 AS wells, and expanded in 2019 with an additional 140 AS wells. Quarterly performance monitoring was reduced to semi-annual in 2020. The HS 6 AS system remained operational during the reporting period covered under this report. The results of the HS 6 system operation and semi-annual performance monitoring are summarized in this report. Semi-annual monitoring results collected in April and October 2022 show concentrations of contaminants of concern (cDCE, trans-1,2-dichloroethene, and vinyl chloride) are generally decreasing and not impacting the surface water drainage canal, indicating the HS 6 IM is meeting objectives. A Phase Two Expansion of the HS 6 AS IM was recently completed. As of the date of this report, the expansion became operational in August 2023 and the first quarter of monitoring was conducted in November 2023. Details of the construction, start-up, and performance monitoring will be included in a future Annual PMR. Overall, the tasks associated with Year 13 operation of the HC IM, operation of the HS 6 AS IM, and biennial site-wide sampling were performed in accordance with recommendations included in the previous 2021 LC34 (Year 12) annual report. Evaluation of results from the HC IM and HS 6 IM show that these systems are operating as designed and meeting performance objectives. Results from the site-wide biennial LTM program also show that the overall network of monitoring wells is adequate to continue monitoring plume-wide conditions.

Complex 34↗

Developmental Testing of Habitability and Human Factors Tools and Methods During Neemo 15

Currently, no established methods exist to collect real-time human factors and habitability data while crewmembers are living aboard the International Space Station (ISS), traveling aboard other space vehicles, or living in remote habitats. Currently, human factors and habitability data regarding space vehicles and habitats are acquired at the end of missions during postflight crew debriefs. These debriefs occur weeks or often longer after events have occurred, which forces a significant reliance on incomplete human memory, which is imperfect. Without a means to collect real-time data, small issues may have a cumulative effect and continue to cause crew frustration and inefficiencies. Without timely and appropriate reporting methodologies, issues may be repeated or lost. TOOL DEVELOPMENT AND EVALUATION: As part of a directed research project (DRP) aiming to develop and validate tools and methods for collecting near real-time human factors and habitability data, a preliminary set of tools and methods was developed. These tools and methods were evaluated during the NASA Extreme Environments Mission Operations (NEEMO) 15 mission in October 2011. Two versions of a software tool were used to collect observational data from NEEMO crewmembers that also used targeted strategies for using video cameras to collect observations. Space habitability observation reporting tool (SHORT) was created based on a tool previously developed by NASA to capture human factors and habitability issues during spaceflight. SHORT uses a web-based interface that allows users to enter a text description of any observations they wish to report and assign a priority level if changes are needed. In addition to the web-based format, a mobile Apple (iOS) format was implemented, referred to as iSHORT. iSHORT allows users to provide text, audio, photograph, and video data to report observations. iSHORT can be deployed on an iPod Touch, iPhone, or iPad; for NEEMO 15, the app was provided on an iPad2.

Thaxton, S. S.↗

Development of the Suited Injury Modes and Effects Analysis for Identification of Top Injury Risks in Lunar Missions and Training

A new Exploration Extravehicular Activity Services (xEVAS) suit is being designed to replace the current Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU) for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA’s) Artemis program to return astronauts to the lunar surface. This new suit will allow for increased range of motion compared to the current EMU and Apollo era suits and additional features will enhance the health and safety of exploration. With the design of lunar missions and the xEVAS suit progressing, it is important to consider possible injuries and injury mechanisms that could occur in the suit. To address these concerns, the suited Injury Modes and Effects Analysis (IMEA) was developed to outline suited injury scenarios and rank them based on risk score. The IMEA documents possible scenarios and underlying mechanisms of injury. History has shown that more suit injuries occur during training than in flight; therefore, currently planned training events to prepare for lunar missions and tasks during lunar surface EVAs were considered. Each scenario is ranked with likelihood and consequence scorings based on our current understanding of suit and application of Artemis design reference missions. The scoring allowed identification of the high-risk cases that will drive further work in suited injury. Mechanisms of injury, injury outcomes, and mitigation strategies are evaluated within each scenario. The Suited Injury Summit was held on January 5, 2022, to vet the IMEA with external experts. This was an all-day virtual meeting with the suited injury team; ergonomists; suit engineers; safety engineers; the flight operations directorate; flight doctors; astronauts; astronaut strength, conditioning, and rehabilitation specialists (ASCRS); and external subject matter experts (SMEs). External SMEs consisted of surgeons with varying specialties. The intent of this meeting was to walk through the top injury risks identified in the analysis, identify any gaps that were not captured, and discuss mitigations. With participation from all groups, countless lessons-learned came from the Summit meeting. Using these, the top 10 risks have been identified: neutral buoyancy laboratory training, hand/glove injuries, poor suit fit, field training, specific EVA tasks/design of task, boots/ankle injuries, falls from heights, background radiation, repetitive contact, and ambulation/longdistance ambulation. Mitigation steps have also been determined for each of the top risks. The IMEA and documentation of top risks is a living document. Yearly meetings are planned to update the analysis and reevaluate top risks and mitigations. The IMEA is being used to drive work in suited injury, and this work will continue to evolve with IMEA and lunar mission updates.

Teresa Reiber↗

Preparing the Mars Relay Network for the Arrival of the Perseverance Rover at Mars

The Perseverance rover represents NASA’s latest achievement in Mars exploration. Landing successfully on 18 Feb 2021, the rover’s transmitted data during its entry, descent, and landing (EDL) were captured by the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) and the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution (MAVEN) orbiter. This data, broadcast in near-realtime to the world, allowed everyone to share in the excitement (and “terror”) of the day. The images returned thereafter included the first images of the new landing site, video of the landing itself taken from a variety of vantage points, and eventually the historic images of the first powered flight on another planet. Behind the scenes, the return of that data to Earth was accomplished via Mars orbiters operated by NASA and ESA, using three different ground tracking networks. Considered together, this Mars Relay Network (MRN) enabled the successful, timely, and unobtrusive return of the rover’s data. This paper describes the preparations taken by the participants of the MRN in anticipation of the arrival of Perseverance at Mars. These were not only focused on successfully acquiring the rover’s critical event telemetry during its EDL, but also on readying the network to return the rover’s data on an ongoing basis as it pursued its mission objectives. Included is a brief description of the MRN, which represents a highly successful international collaboration and continues as critical infrastructure for NASA’s and ESA’s ongoing Mars exploration. Also summarized are the activities performed prior to EDL, including landing site reconnaissance and mission test and training activities; those activities performed on EDL day, especially the recording, return, and processing of the rover’s critical event telemetry; and those activities that are now being performed on an ongoing basis during the rover’s surface operations, including an outline of the planning processes that enable relay services. Finally, a description of the performance of the network to-date on behalf of the Perseverance rover is given, summarizing the success of the network to provide support to both it and other spacecraft on the surface of Mars.

Srnka, Evan↗

Long-Range Transhorizon Lunar Surface Radio Wave Propagation in the Presence of a Regolith and a Sparse Exospheric Plasma

Long-range, over-the-horizon (transhorizon) radio wave propagation is considered for the case of the Moon. In the event that relay satellites are not available or otherwise unwarranted for use, transhorizon communication provides for a contingency or backup option for non line-of-sight lunar surface exploration scenarios. Two potential low-frequency propagation mechanisms characteristic of the lunar landscape are the lunar regolith and the photoelectron induced plasma exosphere enveloping the Moon. Although it was hoped that the regolith would provide for a spherical waveguide which could support a trapped surface wave phenomena, it is found that, in most cases, the regolith is deleterious to long range radio wave propagation. However, the presence of the plasma of the lunar exosphere supports wave propagation and, in fact, surpasses the attenuation of the regolith. Given the models of the regolith and exosphere adopted here, it is recommended that a frequency of 1 MHz be considered for low rate data transmission along the lunar surface. It is also recommended that further research be done to capture the descriptive physics of the regolith and the exospheric plasma so that a more complete model can be obtained. This comprehensive theoretical study is based entirely on first principles and the mathematical techniques needed are developed as required; it is self-contained and should not require the use of outside resources for its understanding.

Manning, Robert M.↗

Future Lightning Instruments for Weather and Climate Monitoring From LEO

Lightning is not only a natural hazard, but it also holds information about physical processes at work in deep convection and influences atmospheric oxidants that modulate ozone and methane. Hence, spaceborne lightning observations are essential for monitoring extreme events and feedbacks in Earth’s climate system. Low-Earth orbiting (LEO) lightning mapping instruments established a 25-year record of global lightning activity and resulted in a wealth of studies that motivated its designation as an Essential Climate Variable by the World Meteorological Organization. Although geostationary observations of lightning have become increasingly available since 2017, LEO lightning mappers continue to serve critical needs given their unique vantage point and acceptance as a unifying reference for geostationary lightning mapper and ground-based global lightning datasets. At the close of 2023, the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) will cease operations on the International Space Station, which introduces a critical gap in LEO-based monitoring of global lightning activity. To address this need, NASA is developing new lightning mapping technology that enables future LEO-based satellite missions. Existing LEO-based lightning mappers rely on narrowband optical emissions centered on 777.4-nm and detectors that capture 500 images per second to detect lightning both day and night. Lightning can also produce optical emissions in a narrowband centered on 337-nm without any corresponding emissions at the traditionally used near-infrared (NIR) wavelength. These near-ultraviolet (UV) emissions are associated with earlier stage electrical breakdown (e.g., streamers), may frequent intense regions of deep convective storms, and may be a significant source of nitrogen oxide production in the upper atmosphere. A new lightning mapping instrument called the CubeSat Lightning Imaging and Detection Experiment (CLIDE) is being designed at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center to use high-speed, scientific CMOS image sensors capable of detecting lightning’s transient optical emissions in the near-UV and NIR during both daylit and nighttime scenes. This will extend the record of global lightning activity and help pave the way for future small satellite missions that combine radio and optical lightning detectors to obtain novel three-dimensional maps of lightning on a global scale, which can revolutionize the way lightning is used to monitor weather and understand changes in climate.

lightning↗

Analytic Shielding Optimization to Reduce Crew Exposure to Ionizing Radiation Inside Space Vehicles

A sustainable lunar architecture provides capabilities for leveraging out-of-service components for alternate uses. Discarded architecture elements may be used to provide ionizing radiation shielding to the crew habitat in case of a Solar Particle Event. The specific location relative to the vehicle where the additional shielding mass is placed, as corroborated with particularities of the vehicle design, has a large influence on protection gain. This effect is caused by the exponential- like decrease of radiation exposure with shielding mass thickness, which in turn determines that the most benefit from a given amount of shielding mass is obtained by placing it so that it preferentially augments protection in under-shielded areas of the vehicle exposed to the radiation environment. A novel analytic technique to derive an optimal shielding configuration was developed by Lockheed Martin during Design Analysis Cycle 3 (DAC-3) of the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV). [1] Based on a detailed Computer Aided Design (CAD) model of the vehicle including a specific crew positioning scenario, a set of under-shielded vehicle regions can be identified as candidates for placement of additional shielding. Analytic tools are available to allow capturing an idealized supplemental shielding distribution in the CAD environment, which in turn is used as a reference for deriving a realistic shielding configuration from available vehicle components. While the analysis referenced in this communication applies particularly to the Orion vehicle, the general method can be applied to a large range of space exploration vehicles, including but not limited to lunar and Mars architecture components. In addition, the method can be immediately applied for optimization of radiation shielding provided to sensitive electronic components.

Gaza, Razvan↗

Development of the Suited Injury Modes and Effects Analysis for Identification of Top Injury Risks in Lunar Missions and Training

A new Exploration Extravehicular Activity Suit (xEVAS) is being designed to replace the current Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU) for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA’s) Artemis program to return astronauts to the lunar surface. This new suit will allow for increased range of motion compared the current EMU and Apollo era suits and will have additional features that will enhance the health and safety of exploration. With the design of lunar missions and the xEVAS progressing, it is important to consider possible injuries and injury mechanisms that could occur in the suit. To address these concerns, the suited Injury Modes and Effects Analysis (IMEA) was developed to outline suited injury scenarios and rank them based on risk score. The IMEA documents possible scenarios and underlying mechanisms of injury while wearing an extravehicular activity (EVA) suit. Tasks during lunar surface EVA as well as training events to prepare for lunar missions were considered as history has shown that more suit injuries occur during training than in flight. Each scenario is ranked with a consequence and likelihood scoring based on our current understanding of the suit and Artemis design reference missions to identify high-risk cases that will drive further work in suited injury. Injuries, mechanisms of injury, and mitigation strategies are evaluated within each scenario. The Suited Injury Summit was held on January 5, 2022, to vet the IMEA with external experts. This was an all-day virtual meeting with the suited injury team, ergonomists, suit engineers, safety engineers, the flight operations directorate, flight doctors, astronauts, astronaut strength, conditioning, and rehabilitation specialists (ASCRS), and external subject matter experts (SMEs). External SMEs consisted of surgeons with varying specialties. The intent of this meeting was to walk through the top injury risks identified in the analysis, identify any gaps that were not captured, and discuss mitigations. With participation from all groups, countless lessons-learned came from the Summit meeting. Using the lessons-learned and discussion from the Summit, the top 10 risks have been identified: neutral buoyancy laboratory training, hand/glove injuries, poor suit fit, field training, specific EVA tasks/design of task, boots/ankle injuries, falls from heights, background radiation, repetitive contact, and ambulation/long-distance ambulation. Mitigation steps have also been determined for each of the top risks. The IMEA and documentation of top risks is a living document. Yearly meetings are planned to update the analysis and reevaluate top risks and mitigations. The IMEA is being used to drive work in suited injury, and this work will continue to evolve with IMEA and lunar mission updates.

Teresa Reiber↗

Development of the Suited Injury Modes and Effects Analysis for Identification of Top Injury Risks in Lunar Missions and Training

A new Exploration Extravehicular Activity Suit (xEVAS) is being designed to replace the current Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU) for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA’s) Artemis program to return astronauts to the lunar surface. This new suit will allow for increased range of motion compared the current EMU and Apollo era suits and will have additional features that will enhance the health and safety of exploration. With the design of lunar missions and the xEVAS progressing, it is important to consider possible injuries and injury mechanisms that could occur in the suit. To address these concerns, the suited Injury Modes and Effects Analysis (IMEA) was developed to outline suited injury scenarios and rank them based on risk score. The IMEA documents possible scenarios and underlying mechanisms of injury while wearing an extravehicular activity (EVA) suit. Tasks during lunar surface EVA as well as training events to prepare for lunar missions were considered as history has shown that more suit injuries occur during training than in flight. Each scenario is ranked with a consequence and likelihood scoring based on our current understanding of the suit and Artemis design reference missions to identify high-risk cases that will drive further work in suited injury. Injuries, mechanisms of injury, and mitigation strategies are evaluated within each scenario. The Suited Injury Summit was held on January 5, 2022, to vet the IMEA with external experts. This was an all-day virtual meeting with the suited injury team, ergonomists, suit engineers, safety engineers, the flight operations directorate, flight doctors, astronauts, astronaut strength, conditioning, and rehabilitation specialists (ASCRS), and external subject matter experts (SMEs). External SMEs consisted of surgeons with varying specialties. The intent of this meeting was to walk through the top injury risks identified in the analysis, identify any gaps that were not captured, and discuss mitigations. With participation from all groups, countless lessons-learned came from the Summit meeting. Using the lessons-learned and discussion from the Summit, the top 10 risks have been identified: neutral buoyancy laboratory training, hand/glove injuries, poor suit fit, field training, specific EVA tasks/design of task, boots/ankle injuries, falls from heights, background radiation, repetitive contact, and ambulation/long-distance ambulation. Mitigation steps have also been determined for each of the top risks. The IMEA and documentation of top risks is a living document. Yearly meetings are planned to update the analysis and reevaluate top risks and mitigations. The IMEA is being used to drive work in suited injury, and this work will continue to evolve with IMEA and lunar mission updates.

Tessa Reiber↗

Carbonaceous Survivability on Impact

In order to gain knowledge about the potential contributions of comets and cosmic dust to the origin of life on Earth, we need to explore the survivability of their potential organic compounds on impact and the formation of secondary products that may have arisen from the chaotic events sustained by the carriers as they fell to Earth. We have performed a series of hypervelocity impact experiments using carbon-bearing impactors (diamond, graphite, kerogens, PAH crystals, and Murchison and Nogoya meteorites) into Al plate targets at velocities - 6 km/s. Estimated peak shock pressures probably did not exceed 120 GPa and peak shock temperatures were probably less than 4000 K for times of nano- to microsecs. Nominal crater dia. are less than one mm. The most significant results of these experiments are the preservation of the higher mass PAHs (e. g., pyrene relative to napthalene) and the formation of additional alkylated PAHs. We have also examined the residues of polystyrene projectiles impacted by a microparticle accelerator into targets at velocities up to 15 km/s. This talk will discuss the results of these experiments and their implications with respect to the survival of carbonaceous deliverables to early Earth. The prospects of survivability of organic molecules on "intact" capture of cosmic dust in space via soft: and hard cosmic dust collectors will also be discussed.

Bunch, T. E.↗

Monitoring of International Space Station Telemetry Using Shewhart Control Charts

Shewhart control charts have been established as an expedient method for analyzing dynamic, trending data in order to identify anomalous subsystem performance as soon as such performance would exceed a statistically established baseline. Additionally, this leading indicator tool integrates a selection methodology that reduces false positive indications, optimizes true leading indicator events, minimizes computer processor unit duty cycles, and addresses human factor concerns (i.e., the potential for flight-controller data overload). This innovation leverages statistical process control, and provides a relatively simple way to allow flight controllers to focus their attention on subtle system changes that could lead to dramatic off-nominal system performance. Finally, this capability improves response time to potential hardware damage and/or crew injury, thereby improving space flight safety. Shewhart control charts require normalized data. However, the telemetry from the ISS Early External Thermal Control System (EETCS) was not normally distributed. A method for normalizing the data was implemented, as was a means of selecting data windows, the number of standard deviations (Sigma Level), the number of consecutive points out of limits (Sequence), and direction (increasing or decreasing trend data). By varying these options, and treating them like dial settings, the number of nuisance alerts and leading indicators were optimized. The goal was to capture all leading indicators while minimizing the number of nuisances. Lean Six Sigma (L6S) design of experiment methodologies were employed. To optimize the results, Perl programming language was used to automate the massive amounts of telemetry data, control chart plots, and the data analysis.

Fitch, Jeffery T.↗

Reply to Comment by Laprise on 'the Added Value to Global Model Projections of Climate Change by Dynamical Downscaling: a Case Study over the Continental U.S. Using the GISS-ModelE2 and WRF Models'

In his comment, Laprise raises several points that we agree merit consideration. His primary critique is that our study [Racherla et al., 2012] tested the ability of the WRF regional climate model to reproduce historical temperature and precipitation change relative to the driving global climate model (GCM) using only a single simulation rather than an ensemble. He asserts that the observed changes are smaller than the internal variability in the climate system (i.e., not statistically significant) and that thus a single simulation should not necessarily be able to capture the observations. Laprise points out that the statistical signal is reduced for a multi-decadal trend such as the one we analyzed in comparison with mean climatology and cites two studies showing that for particular climate parameters it can take any years for a signal to be discerned over internal variability. He states that The results of theexperiment as designed were strongly influenced by the presence of internal variability and sampling errors,which masked the rather small climate changes that may have occurred as a consequence of changes inforcing during the period considered. While Laprise discusses statistics in general terms at some length, for the actual climate trends examined in our study, he offers no evidence that the forced signal was smallcompared with internal variability. The two studies he cites [de Ela et al., 2013; Maraun, 2013] do not provide convincing evidence as they concern climate variables averaged over different times and areas. One in fact examines extreme precipitation events, which by definition are rare and thus have a lower significance level. We accept the general point that it is important to consider internal variability, and as noted in our paper we agree that an ensemble of simulations is in principle an optimal, though computationally expensive, approach. While we did not present the statistical significance of the observations in our original paper, we have now evaluated those for the regional temperature trends used in our study to evaluate the added value of WRF and thus can analyze data as to the magnitude of the trends with respect to internal variability.

climate↗

Automation of POST Cases via External Optimizer and "Artificial p2" Calculation

During early conceptual design of complex systems, speed and accuracy are often at odds with one another. While many characteristics of the design are fluctuating rapidly during this phase there is nonetheless a need to acquire accurate data from which to down-select designs as these decisions will have a large impact upon program life-cycle cost. Therefore enabling the conceptual designer to produce accurate data in a timely manner is tantamount to program viability. For conceptual design of launch vehicles, trajectory analysis and optimization is a large hurdle. Tools such as the industry standard Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories (POST) have traditionally required an expert in the loop for setting up inputs, running the program, and analyzing the output. The solution space for trajectory analysis is in general non-linear and multi-modal requiring an experienced analyst to weed out sub-optimal designs in pursuit of the global optimum. While an experienced analyst presented with a vehicle similar to one which they have already worked on can likely produce optimal performance figures in a timely manner, as soon as the "experienced" or "similar" adjectives are invalid the process can become lengthy. In addition, an experienced analyst working on a similar vehicle may go into the analysis with preconceived ideas about what the vehicle's trajectory should look like which can result in sub-optimal performance being recorded. Thus, in any case but the ideal either time or accuracy can be sacrificed. In the authors' previous work a tool called multiPOST was created which captures the heuristics of a human analyst over the process of executing trajectory analysis with POST. However without the instincts of a human in the loop, this method relied upon Monte Carlo simulation to find successful trajectories. Overall the method has mixed results, and in the context of optimizing multiple vehicles it is inefficient in comparison to the method presented POST's internal optimizer functions like any other gradient-based optimizer. It has a specified variable to optimize whose value is represented as optval, a set of dependent constraints to meet with associated forms and tolerances whose value is represented as p2, and a set of independent variables known as the u-vector to modify in pursuit of optimality. Each of these quantities are calculated or manipulated at a certain phase within the trajectory. The optimizer is further constrained by the requirement that the input u-vector must result in a trajectory which proceeds through each of the prescribed events in the input file. For example, if the input u-vector causes the vehicle to crash before it can achieve the orbital parameters required for a parking orbit, then the run will fail without engaging the optimizer, and a p2 value of exactly zero is returned. This poses a problem, as this "non-connecting" region of the u-vector space is far larger than the "connecting" region which returns a non-zero value of p2 and can be worked on by the internal optimizer. Finding this connecting region and more specifically the global optimum within this region has traditionally required the use of an expert analyst.

Dees, Patrick D.↗

Transfer-AE: A novel autoencoder-based impact detection model for structural digital twin

Accurately detecting the location and intensity of impacts is crucial for ensuring structural safety. Currently, AI-based structural impact detection methods are widely used for their excellent detection accuracy. However, their generalization capability is limited by the scenarios present in the training data. Many complex and dangerous impact scenarios are difficult to conduct real-world experiments on to collect sufficient samples. To capture all impact scenarios and fully leverage the advantages of AI-based detection technologies, advanced methods involve combining real-world structural monitoring data with corresponding numerical models to construct digital twins. These methods continuously refine the created numerical models with limited real-world data and provide diverse impact scenarios through numerical model simulations. However, there are inevitable differences between digital models and physical models that are challenging to correct through mechanical means. This discrepancy in data distribution between the two models significantly hinders the application of digital twin technology in impact/event identification tasks. To address this challenge, this study proposes a novel model based on autoencoders, named Transfer-AE. Transfer-AE encodes the common features of digital twins in the latent space to bridge the uncertainty gap at a macro scale between numerical models and physical models and synchronously fits the magnitude and location of the impact load in the decoder. This enables consistent detection results for the same impact event, whether the sample comes from the numerical model or the physical model. Transfer-AE includes two operating modes: Mode 1 has a fixed computational complexity with stable inference speed, but the training cost and difficulty increase with data distribution. Mode 2's computational complexity increases with data distribution, but it has a fixed training cost and speed. In both cases involving the geodesic dome structure simulating a deep space habitat and the IASC-ASCE benchmark structure, Transfer-AE demonstrated the best performance in impact localization and quantification tasks compared to mainstream domain-adaptive transfer models.

Chengjia Han↗

Searching for Chips of Kuiper Belt Objects in Meteorites

The Nice model [1&2] describes a scenario whereby the Jovian planets experienced a violent reshuffling event approx.3:9 Ga the giant planets moved, existing small body reservoirs were depleted or eliminated, and new reservoirs were created in particular locations. The Nice model quantitatively explains the orbits of the Jovian planets and Neptune [1], the orbits of bodies in several different small body reservoirs in the outer solar system (e.g., Trojans of Jupiter [2], the Kuiper belt and scattered disk [3], the irregular satellites of the giant planets [4], and the late heavy bombardment on the terrestrial planets approx.3:9 Ga [5]. This model is unique in plausibly explaining all of these phenomena. One issue with the Nice model is that it predicts that transported Kuiper Belt Objects (KBOs) (things looking like D class asteroids) should predominate in the outer asteroid belt, but we know only about 10% of the objects in the outer main asteroid belt appear to be D-class objects [6]. However based upon collisional modeling, Bottke et al. [6] argue that more than 90% of the objects captured in the outer main belt could have been eliminated by impacts if they had been weakly-indurated objects. These disrupted objects should have left behind pieces in the ancient regoliths of other, presumably stronger asteroids. Thus, a derived prediction of the Nice model is that ancient regolith samples (regolith-bearing meteorites) should contain fragments of collisionally-destroyed Kuiper belt objects. In fact KBO pieces might be expected to be present in most ancient regolith- bearing meteorites [7&8].

Zolensky, M. E.↗

Determining the Optimum Post Spacing of LIDAR-Derived Elevation Data in Varying Terrain for Flood Hazard Mapping Purposes in North Carolina and Texas

The major flood events in the United States in the past few years have made it apparent that many floodplain maps being used by State governments are outdated and inaccurate. In response, many Stated have begun to update their Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Digital Flood Insurance Rate Maps. Accurate topographic data is one of the most critical inputs for floodplain analysis and delineation. Light detection and ranging (LIDAR) altimetry is one of the primary remote sensing technologies that can be used to obtain high-resolution and high-accuracy digital elevation data suitable for hydrologic and hydraulic (H&H) modeling, in part because of its ability to "penetrate" various cover types and to record geospatial data from the Earth's surface. However, the posting density or spacing at which LIDAR collects the data will affect the resulting accuracies of the derived bare Earth surface, depending on terrain type and land cover type. For example, flat areas are thought to require higher or denser postings than hilly areas to capture subtle changes in the topography that could have a significant effect on flooding extent. Likewise, if an area has dense understory and overstory, it may be difficult to receive LIDAR returns from the Earth's surface, which would affect the accuracy of that bare Earth surface and thus would affect flood model results. For these reasons, NASA and FEMA have partnered with the State of North Carolina and with the U.S./Mexico Foundation in Texas to assess the effect of LIDAR point density on the characterization of topographic variation and on H&H modeling results for improved floodplain mapping. Research for this project is being conducted in two areas of North Carolina and in the City of Brownsville, Texas, each with a different type of terrain and varying land cover/land use. Because of various project constraints, LIDAR data were acquired once at a high posting density and then decimated to coarser postings or densities. Quality assurance/quality control analyses were performed on each dataset. Cross sections extracted form the high density and then the decimated datasets were individually input into an H&H model to determine the model's sensitivity to topographic variation and the effect of that variation on the resulting water profiles. Additional analysis was performed on the Brownsville, Texas, LIDAR data to determine the percentage of returns that "penetrated" various types of canopy or vegetative cover. It is hoped that the results of these studies will benefit state and local communities as they consider the post spacing at which to acquire LIDAR data (which affects cost) and will benefit FEMA as the Agency assesses the use of different technologies for updating National Flood Insurance Program and related products.

Berglund, Judith↗