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At least 559 records · Page 31

System statistical reliability model and analysis

A digital computer code was developed to simulate the time-dependent behavior of the 5-kwe reactor thermoelectric system. The code was used to determine lifetime sensitivity coefficients for a number of system design parameters, such as thermoelectric module efficiency and degradation rate, radiator absorptivity and emissivity, fuel element barrier defect constant, beginning-of-life reactivity, etc. A probability distribution (mean and standard deviation) was estimated for each of these design parameters. Then, error analysis was used to obtain a probability distribution for the system lifetime (mean = 7.7 years, standard deviation = 1.1 years). From this, the probability that the system will achieve the design goal of 5 years lifetime is 0.993. This value represents an estimate of the degradation reliability of the system.

Lekach, V. S.↗

Geophysical parameters from the analysis of laser ranging to Starlette

The University of Texas Center for Space Research (UT/CSR) research efforts covering the time period from August 1, 1990 through January 31, 1991 have concentrated on the following areas: (1) Laser Data Processing (more than 15 years of Starlette data (1975-90) have been processed and cataloged); (2) Seasonal Variation of Zonal Tides (observed Starlette time series has been compared with meteorological data-derived time series); (3) Ocean Tide Solutions . (error analysis has been performed using Starlette and other tide solutions); and (4) Lunar Deceleration (formulation to compute theoretical lunar deceleration has been verified and applied to several tidal solutions). Concise descriptions of research achievement for each of the above areas are given. Copies of abstracts for some of the publications and conference presentations are included in the appendices.

Schutz, B. E.↗

Relative Navigation for Spacecraft Formation Flying

The Goddard Space Flight Center Guidance, Navigation, and Control Center (GNCC) is currently developing and implementing advanced satellite systems to provide autonomous control of formation flyers. The initial formation maintenance capability will be flight-demonstrated on the Earth-Orbiter-1 (EO-l) satellite, which is planned under the National Aeronautics and Space Administration New Millennium Program to be a coflight with the Landsat-7 (L-7) satellite. Formation flying imposes relative navigation accuracy requirements in addition to the orbit accuracy requirements for the individual satellites. In the case of EO-1 and L-7, the two satellites are in nearly coplanar orbits, with a small difference in the longitude of the ascending node to compensate for the Earth's rotation. The GNCC has performed trajectory error analysis for the relative navigation of the EO-1/L-7 formation, as well as for a more advanced tracking configuration using cross- link satellite communications. This paper discusses the orbit determination and prediction accuracy achievable for EO-1 and L-7 under various tracking and orbit determination scenarios and discusses the expected relative separation errors in their formation flying configuration.

Hartman, Kate R.↗

Relative navigation for spacecraft formation flying

The Goddard Space Flight Center Guidance, Navigation, and Control Center (GNCC) is currently developing and implementing advanced satellite systems to provide autonomous control of formation flyers. The initial formation maintenance capability will be flight-demonstrated on the Earth-Orbiter-1 (EO-1) satellite, which is planned under the National Aeronautics and Space Administration New Millennium Program to be a coflight with the Landsat-7 (L-7) satellite. Formation flying imposes relative navigation accuracy requirements in addition to the orbit accuracy requirements for the individual satellites. In the case of EO-1 and L-7, the two satellites are in nearly coplanar orbits, with a small difference in the longitude of the ascending node to compensate for the Earth's rotation. The GNCC has performed trajectory error analysis for the relative navigation of the EO-1/L-7 formation, as well as for a more advanced tracking configuration using cross-link satellite communications. This paper discusses the orbit determination and prediction accuracy achievable for EO-1 and L-7 under various tracking and orbit determination scenarios and discusses the expected relative separation errors in their formation flying configuration.

Hartman, Kate R.↗

Analysis of stellar occultation data - Effects of photon noise and initial conditions

An occultation light curve can be analyzed to provide information about a planetary atmosphere. Temperature, pressure, and number density profiles for the atmosphere of Mars are derived from a series of boundary layer equations, which invert equal increments of altitude (as opposed to time) in order to predict the noise quality of the occultation. Numerical results are given for a noisy isothermal light curve, with special attention to error analysis.

French, R. G.↗

Studies of lightning data in conjunction with geostationary satellite data

The archiving of a more complete data base to perform lightning studies is outlined. This effort includes: (1) continued archiving of bureau of land management LLP, geostationary satellite, and NWS radar data; (2) expansion of the McIDAS real-time LLP access to other networks. Additional processing tools for display and analysis of lightning location data in conjunction with geostationary satellite data are developed which entails adapting existing McIDAS software to allow the production of statistical summaries and contouring of lightning characteristics over user defined areas or storms. The plotting of three dimensional displays of lightning statistics versus satellite and radar data, and the performance of an error analysis of lightning location data using overlapping regions of the BLM network are discussed.

Suchman, D.↗

Measurement uncertainty and feasibility study of a flush airdata system for a hypersonic flight experiment

Presented is a feasibility and error analysis for a hypersonic flush airdata system on a hypersonic flight experiment (HYFLITE). HYFLITE heating loads make intrusive airdata measurement impractical. Although this analysis is specifically for the HYFLITE vehicle and trajectory, the problems analyzed are generally applicable to hypersonic vehicles. A layout of the flush-port matrix is shown. Surface pressures are related airdata parameters using a simple aerodynamic model. The model is linearized using small perturbations and inverted using nonlinear least-squares. Effects of various error sources on the overall uncertainty are evaluated using an error simulation. Error sources modeled include boundarylayer/viscous interactions, pneumatic lag, thermal transpiration in the sensor pressure tubing, misalignment in the matrix layout, thermal warping of the vehicle nose, sampling resolution, and transducer error. Using simulated pressure data for input to the estimation algorithm, effects caused by various error sources are analyzed by comparing estimator outputs with the original trajectory. To obtain ensemble averages the simulation is run repeatedly and output statistics are compiled. Output errors resulting from the various error sources are presented as a function of Mach number. Final uncertainties with all modeled error sources included are presented as a function of Mach number.

Whitmore, Stephen A.↗

A statistical analysis of simulated data from potential stratospheric satellite missions

A simplified one-dimensional model is used to analyze simulated data from typical proposed satellite measurements of trace species in the stratosphere. Uncertainties are introduced in simulated species concentration measurements and applied to the basic physical and chemical model data. The results of the calculations are then used to predict uncertainties in the species concentrations computed by the model. Candidate satellite missions can be evaluated for net information acquired by applying the error analysis. An abbreviated depiction of the computational procedure is given, and sample histograms based on an accumulation of 200 calculations are shown for H2O2 and ClNO3, demonstrating that emergent species distributions are roughly Gaussian in the logarithm of number density. Calculated vertical concentration profiles for these two species are presented.

Nealy, J. E.↗

General method for assessing the geographically correlated error for an orbiter with applications to Topex

An estimation based computational algorithm for evaluating geographically dependent orbit determination errors is presented. A derivation is included of the generalized geographically correlated error analysis algorithm and the algorithm is applied to a Topex simulation. Then a general numerical technique which provides the capability to analyze any type of mismodeled parameter with the geopotential as a special case is described. The numerical algorithm is compared with the analytic method of Rosborough (1986) and it is shown that both methods generate consistent geographically dependent orbit error profiles when the ephemeris error is dominated by the mismodeled geopotential.

Wolff, P. J.↗

Preliminary Theoretical Analysis of Mixed Precision Krylov Subspace Methods (Q3 Report)

The third quarter of the project was spent performing theoretical finite precision analysis of Krylov subspace method variants that use mixed precision. Our focus here is on the Conjugate Gradient (CG) method and the Lanczos method. We have performed an analysis of maximum attainable accuracy for the classical CG method in which 3 precisions are used: a working precision ε, a precision ε IP for the inner product computations, and a precision ε MV for the matrix-vector products. Our results show that performing inner product computations in lower precision does not affect the attainable accuracy. Further, we have performed a complete error analysis of the s-step Lanczos algorithm. In this case, we show that the numerical behavior of the algorithm can be significantly improved by using extra precision in a small part of the computation. We summarize the main theorems in the remainder of the document. Other activities include attending biweekly xSDK meetings. The subsequent quarter will be spent finalizing these results into technical reports and/or manuscripts for submission to journals, as well as identifying opportunities for future work.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

GPS-aided Space Shuttle navigation

In the present paper, specific GPS (Global Positioning System) aided Shuttle navigation are presented as examples of the navigation performance prediction process. The process described is a statistical covariance error analysis. To facilitate detailing, the process is broken down into four portions with sharply limited interfaces. Considerations of mission scenarios form one distinct package of computer routines. Simulation of the onboard navigation filter is another facet of the process, as are the larger system covariance program and the GPS segment covariance simulation. The combination of these computer tools permits proper evaluation of the multitude of correlated error sources affecting GPS-aided Shuttle navigation.

Matchett, G.↗

Assessing the mechanisms governing the daytime evolution of marine stratocumulus using large‐eddy simulation

Large‐eddy simulation (LES) output for a case of thin stratocumulus off the coast of California is examined in a mixed‐layer analysis framework to identify the specific mechanisms responsible for governing the evolution of the cloud system. An equation for cloud‐base height tendency isolates the individual cloud‐modulating mechanisms that control the evolution of boundary‐layer liquid‐water static energy ( S l ) and total water mixing ratio ( q T ). With a suitable spin‐up procedure, the control simulation performs admirably compared with observed estimates of liquid water content, vertical velocity variance, and radiative fluxes sampled during an aircraft field campaign. Investigation of the cloud response to various environmental forcing scenarios was addressed through a suite of sensitivity simulations, including variations in subsidence velocity, surface fluxes, wind shear near the inversion, and radiative forcing. In the control simulation, rising cloud‐base tendencies are associated with entrainment warming/drying and short‐wave absorption, whereas lowering cloud‐base tendencies are driven by long‐wave cooling. Even in the presence of substantial afternoon solar heating, entrainment fluxes remained active. The thin cloud demonstrated unexpected resiliency, with mixed‐layer analysis indicating that, as the short‐wave flux decreases later in the afternoon, the relative contribution of long‐wave cooling often becomes large enough to offset entrainment warming/drying and result in a reversal of cloud‐base tendency. The evolution of cloud‐base tendency is found to be insensitive to the net radiative flux divergence for most of the simulations (liquid water path ranging from ~10–50 g/m 2 ). Error analysis in comparison with LES S l and q T budgets suggests that our method of entrainment flux calculation could be improved by a more complete understanding of entrainment‐layer physics.

McMichael, Lucas A.↗

New insights in the numerical reliability properties of existing Kalman filter implementations

The convergence properties of Kalman filter algorithms are investigated analytically. A theoretical error analysis is performed on four types of algorithms, as defined by Anderson and Moore (1979): (1) a conventional Kalman filter, (2) a square-root (SR) covariance filter, (3) the Chandrasekhar SR filter, and (4) an SR information filter. The derivations are given in detail, and numerical results for the flight-path reconstruction problem studied by Verhaegen (1987) are presented in tables and graphs. It is shown that error propagation in algorithms (1) and (2) is sensitive to the condition number of the innovation-signal covariance matrix and the spectral norm of the filter state-transition matrix, whereas other parameters are dominant in (3) and (4). Filter (2) is found to be the most reliable for the class of problems studied.

Verhaegen, M. H.↗

Radio Occultation Studies of Venus' Atmosphere with Magellan

We have been conducting a systematic study of the middle and lower atmosphere of Venus through analysis of 20 radio occultation experiments conducted with the Magellan spacecraft between October, 1991, and August, 1994. These studies have revealed a rich but sparsely sampled trove of information regarding the structure, composition and dynamics of the Venus atmosphere. The five sets of experiments sampled a variety of latitudes. Basic results include vertical profiles of: (1) electron density in the ionosphere, (2) pressure, temperature, density, and static stability in the neutral atmosphere (from 33 km to 98 km), and (3) sulfuric acid vapor (H2SO4) abundance below the main cloud deck. Further analysis of the temperature profiles led to the discovery of small vertical-scale gravity waves in the neutral atmosphere. The retrieved profiles show intriguing zonal variations that might be due to planetary- scale waves. During the performance period of this grant, we have concentrated on reanalyzing the 15 experiments conducted in 1994 using improved trajectory files for Magellan provided by JPL, obtaining more reliable results, and on conducting an error analysis of the derived profiles. In addition, we have begun an analysis of microwave emission maps of Venus obtained at the Very Large Array (VLA) in April, 1996. This report is organized as follows: A summary of results is presented, giving representative examples of the various physical profiles retrieved from all the Magellan radio occultation studies, emphasizing latitudinal variations evident in the data. Next, a preliminary analysis of the VLA maps is given. A summary of activities follows the scientific results, detailing papers published and presented at various conferences. This report concludes with a "Conclusions and Suggestions for Future Work" section.

Jenkins, Jon M.↗

Methods for the computation of detailed geoids and their accuracy

Two methods for the computation of geoid undulations using potential coefficients and 1 deg x 1 deg terrestrial anomaly data are examined. It was found that both methods give the same final result but that one method allows a more simplified error analysis. Specific equations were considered for the effect of the mass of the atmosphere and a cap dependent zero-order undulation term was derived. Although a correction to a gravity anomaly for the effect of the atmosphere is only about -0.87 mgal, this correction causes a fairly large undulation correction that was not considered previously. The accuracy of a geoid undulation computed by these techniques was estimated considering anomaly data errors, potential coefficient errors, and truncation (only a finite set of potential coefficients being used) errors. It was found that an optimum cap size of 20 deg should be used. The geoid and its accuracy were computed in the Geos 3 calibration area using the GEM 6 potential coefficients and 1 deg x 1 deg terrestrial anomaly data. The accuracy of the computed geoid is on the order of plus or minus 2 m with respect to an unknown set of best earth parameter constants.

Rapp, R. H.↗

Nonlinear system controller design based on domain of attaction: An application to CELSS analysis and control

Nonlinear system controller design based on the domain of attraction is presented. This is particularly suited to investigating Closed Ecological Life Support Systems (CELSS) models. In particular, the dynamic consequences of changes in the waste storage capacity and system mass, and how information is used for control in CELSS models are examined. The models' high dimensionality and nonlinear state equations make them difficult to analyze by any other technique. The domain of attraction is the region in initial conditions that tend toward an attractor and it is delineated by randomly selecting initial conditions from the region of state space being investigated. Error analysis is done by repeating the domain simulations with independent samples. A refinement of this region is the domain of performance which is the region of initial conditions meeting a performance criteria. In nonlinear systems, local stability does not insure stability over a larger region. The domain of attraction marks out this stability region; hence, it can be considered a measure of a nonlinear system's ability to recovery from state perturbations. Considering random perturbations, the minimum radius of the domain is a measure of the magnitude of perturbations for which recovery is guaranteed. Design of both linear and nonlinear controllers are shown. Three CELSS models, with 9 to 30 state variable, are presented. Measures of the domain of attraction are used to show the global behavior of these models under a variety of design and controller scenarios.

Babcock, P. S., IV↗

Orbit Determination of Spacecraft in Earth-Moon L1 and L2 Libration Point Orbits

The ARTEMIS mission, part of the THEMIS extended mission, is the first to fly spacecraft in the Earth-Moon Lissajous regions. In 2009, two of the five THEMIS spacecraft were redeployed from Earth-centered orbits to arrive in Earth-Moon Lissajous orbits in late 2010. Starting in August 2010, the ARTEMIS P1 spacecraft executed numerous stationkeeping maneuvers, initially maintaining a lunar L2 Lissajous orbit before transitioning into a lunar L1 orbit. The ARTEMIS P2 spacecraft entered a L1 Lissajous orbit in October 2010. In April 2011, both ARTEMIS spacecraft will suspend Lissajous stationkeeping and will be maneuvered into lunar orbits. The success of the ARTEMIS mission has allowed the science team to gather unprecedented magnetospheric measurements in the lunar Lissajous regions. In order to effectively perform lunar Lissajous stationkeeping maneuvers, the ARTEMIS operations team has provided orbit determination solutions with typical accuracies on the order of 0.1 km in position and 0.1 cm/s in velocity. The ARTEMIS team utilizes the Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS), using a batch least squares method, to process range and Doppler tracking measurements from the NASA Deep Space Network (DSN), Berkeley Ground Station (BGS), Merritt Island (MILA) station, and United Space Network (USN). The team has also investigated processing of the same tracking data measurements using the Orbit Determination Tool Kit (ODTK) software, which uses an extended Kalman filter and recursive smoother to estimate the orbit. The orbit determination results from each of these methods will be presented and we will discuss the advantages and disadvantages associated with using each method in the lunar Lissajous regions. Orbit determination accuracy is dependent on both the quality and quantity of tracking measurements, fidelity of the orbit force models, and the estimation techniques used. Prior to Lissajous operations, the team determined the appropriate quantity of tracking measurements that would be needed to meet the required orbit determination accuracies. Analysts used the Orbit Determination Error Analysis System (ODEAS) to perform covariance analyses using various tracking data schedules. From this analysis, it was determined that 3.5 hours of DSN TRK-2-34 range and Doppler tracking data every other day would suffice to meet the predictive orbit knowledge accuracies in the Lissajous region. The results of this analysis are presented. Both GTDS and ODTK have high-fidelity environmental orbit force models that allow for very accurate orbit estimation in the lunar Lissajous regime. These models include solar radiation pressure, Earth and Moon gravity models, third body gravitational effects from the Sun, and to a lesser extent third body gravitational effects from Jupiter, Venus, Saturn, and Mars. Increased position and velocity uncertainties following each maneuver, due to small execution performance errors, requires that several days of post-maneuver tracking data be processed to converge on an accurate post-maneuver orbit solution. The effects of maneuvers on orbit determination accuracy will be presented, including a comparison of the batch least squares technique to the extended Kalman filter/smoother technique. We will present the maneuver calibration results derived from processing post-maneuver tracking data. A dominant error in the orbit estimation process is the uncertainty in solar radiation pressure and the resultant force on the spacecraft. An estimation of this value can include many related factors, such as the uncertainty in spacecraft reflectivity and surface area which is a function of spacecraft orientation (spin-axis attitude), uncertainty in spacecraft wet mass, and potential seasonal variability due to the changing direction of the Sun line relative to the Earth-Moon Lissajous reference frame. In addition, each spacecraft occasionally enters into Earth or Moon penumbra or umbra and these shadow crossings reduche solar radiation force for several hours. The effects of these events on orbit determination accuracy will be presented. In order to plan for upcoming stationkeeping maneuvers, the maneuver planning team must take the current orbit estimate, propagate it forward to the planned maneuver time, and determine the optimal maneuver to maintain the Lissajous orbit for one or more revolutions. The propagation is performed using a Runge-Kutta 7/8 integrator and typically the position and velocity uncertainty increases with propagation time, increasing the overall uncertainty of the orbit state at the maneuver execution time. The effect of orbit knowledge uncertainty on stationkeeping operations will be presented.

Woodard, Mark↗