Small increases in agent-based model complexity can result in large increases in required calibration data
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SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “Environmental Science”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Catchment scale runoff time-series generation and validation using statistical models for the Continental United States
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
FIND: A Synthetic weather generator to control drought Frequency, Intensity, and Duration
Water systems worldwide are experiencing climate change-induced shifts in drought properties like frequency, intensity, and duration, affecting water security and reliability. To develop and test effective drought preparedness plans, researchers often use synthetic weather generators to create hydrological scenarios that explore drought variability beyond historical records. Existing weather generators typically allow users to adjust streamflow statistics like percentiles or temporal correlation but do not directly control drought properties of frequency, intensity, and duration. To fill this gap, we propose FIND (Frequency, INtensity, and Duration) synthetic weather generator. FIND incorporates a standardized drought index to directly and in dependently control drought frequency, intensity, and duration in generated streamflow time series while preserving observed hydrological variability. Use cases for FIND include i) water systems analysis applications that seek to train and test drought strategies under historical and plausible future drought conditions, and ii) bottom-up vulnerability studies relating system vulnerability outcomes to specific changes in drought properties of frequency, intensity, and duration. Here, we demonstrate FIND’s versatility through three experiments: replicating historically observed drought properties, generating streamflow scenarios for multiple sites preserving correlation between their drought conditions, and generating a set of scenarios with direct and independent changes in drought properties. FIND source code is openly available for applications beyond the scope of this paper.
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Online ion mobility spectrometry of nanoparticle formation by non-thermal plasma conversion of metal salts in liquid aerosol droplets
The synthesis of nanoparticles by reaction of liquid aerosol droplets containing precursors in a flow-through, atmospheric-pressure, non-thermal plasma offers a continuous, scalable, substrate- and stabilizer-free approach for direct deposition into liquids or onto soft substrates. However, the combination of multiphase and non-equilibrium chemistry makes the process complicated and poorly understood. Here, we present ion mobility spectrometry measurements of liquid water droplets containing silver nitrate passing through an atmospheric-pressure dielectric barrier discharge reactor that allows us to monitor silver nanoparticle formation online for the first time. Mobility diameter distributions were obtained with the plasma on and off, and exhibited a shift, which was related to the degree of conversion of silver nitrate. The silver nanoparticles were also collected and characterized by UV–visible absorbance spectroscopy and transmission electron microscopy to support the online measurements. Importantly, negligible conversion was found when the water was removed by a diffusion dryer, suggesting that the key reducing species are in the liquid phase, such as solvated electrons. Finally, the study demonstrates how ion mobility spectrometry measurements can be applied to provide insight into this approach to nanoparticle synthesis.
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Effects of salinity and nutrients on metabolism and growth of Ulva lactuca : Implications for bioremediation of coastal watersheds
We studied Ulva lactuca to determine its potential for bioremediation of coastal watersheds. We cultured Ulva in orthogonal combinations of two salinities and three nutrient concentrations for six weeks, and then measured its growth, photosynthesis, chlorophyll fluorescence, nitrogen, carbon and phosphorus tissue concentrations, and carbon and nitrogen uptake pathways. Our findings show that Ulva was negatively affected by decreased salinity but these effects were ameliorated by the addition of nutrients to the water, such as would be expected from freshwater runoff during heavy rain events. Also, increased nutrients resulted in altered nitrogen (NH$_4^ +$ vs. NO$_3^-$) and carbon (HCO$_3^-$ vs. CO 2 ) uptake pathways, which can allow Ulva to retain its bloom potential even under reduced salinities. Together, our study suggests that Ulva is an ideal species to grow for the purpose of bioremediation of coastal bays and estuaries, even during storms that freshen the surface waters and increase nutrients.
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A geospatial environmental and techno-economic framework for sustainable phosphorus management at livestock facilities
Nutrient pollution of waterbodies is a major worldwide water quality problem. Excessive use and discharge of nutrients can lead to eutrophication and algal blooms in fresh and marine waters, resulting in environmental problems associated with hypoxia, public health issues related to the release of toxins and freshwater scarcity. A promising option to address this problem is the recovery of nutrient releases prior to being discharged into the environment. Driven by the sustainable materials management concept, the COW2NUTRIENT (Cattle Organic Waste to NUTRIent and ENergy Technologies) framework is developed for the techno-economic evaluation and selection of nutrient recovery systems at livestock facilities. Furthermore, environmental vulnerability to nutrient pollution determined through a geographic information system (GIS)-based model and techno-economic information of different state-of-the-art nutrient management technologies are combined in a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) model, resulting in the selection and economic analysis of the most suitable process for each studied livestock facility. This framework has been employed for studying the implementation of sustainable phosphorus management systems at 2,217 livestock facilities in the Great Lakes area, resulting in capital expenses of 2.5 billion USD if only phosphorus recovery technologies are installed, and up to 5.2 billion USD if nutrient management is combined with biogas and power production. However, considering potential economic incentives for the recovery of phosphorus, net revenues up to 230 million USD per year can be achieved. Therefore, the framework presented reveals the potential of implementing nutrient management systems at regional scale for the abatement of phosphorus releases from livestock facilities.
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Surface modification induced cuprous oxide nanoparticle toxicity to duckweed at sub-toxic metal concentrations
Nanoparticle capping agents are critical for controlling the growth, oxidation state, and final particle size during aqueous synthesis. However, despite the known phytotoxicity of cetyltrimethylammonium bromide (CTAB) to plants, it is used to synthesize metal oxide nanoparticles of uniform size and with mesoporous structure. Among the few studies that have investigated how CTAB influences nanoparticle toxicity, CTAB has never been identified as the primary cause of nanoparticle toxicity in environmental systems; rather nanoparticle surface charge or morphology was identified as the driver of toxicity in environmentally relevant systems. In the current study, CTAB release from CTAB surface modified Cu 2 O nanoparticles (SM-Cu 2 O NPs) inhibited duckweed (Landoltia punctata) growth, even when administered at subtoxic Cu concentrations. Organic ligands, such as humic acid (HA) and ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid (EDTA), lessened growth inhibition associated with exposure to SM-Cu 2 O NPs, likely through electrostatic and hydrophobic interactions with CTAB. Finally, such results highlight the need for a more holistic approach to nanoparticle surface modification and improved communication between toxicologists and synthetic chemists to develop green alternatives for nanoparticle synthesis.
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Bark beetle impacts on forest evapotranspiration and its partitioning
Insect outbreaks affect forest structure and function and represent a major category of forest disturbance globally. However, the resulting impacts on evapotranspiration (ET), and especially hydrological partitioning between the abiotic (evaporation) and biotic (transpiration) components of total ET, are not well constrained. As a result, we combined remote sensing, eddy covariance, and hydrological modeling approaches to determine the effects of bark beetle outbreak on ET and its partitioning at multiple scales throughout the Southern Rocky Mountain Ecoregion (SRME), USA. At the eddy covariance measurement scale, 85 % of the forest was affected by beetles, and water year ET as a fraction of precipitation (P) decreased by 30 % relative to a control site, with 31 % greater reductions in growing season transpiration relative to total ET. At the ecoregion scale, satellite remote sensing masked to areas of >80 % tree mortality showed corresponding ET/P reductions of 9–15 % that occurred 6–8 years post-disturbance, and indicated that the majority of the total reduction occurred during the growing season; the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrological model showed an associated 9–18 % increase in the ecoregion runoff ratio. Long-term (16–18 year) ET and vegetation mortality datasets extend the length of previously published analyses and allowed for clear characterization of the forest recovery period. During that time, transpiration recovery outpaced total ET recovery, which was lagged in part due to persistently reduced winter sublimation, and there was associated evidence of increasing late summer vegetation moisture stress. Overall, comparison of three independent methods and two partitioning approaches demonstrated a net negative impact of bark beetles on ET, and a relatively greater negative impact on transpiration, following bark beetle outbreak in the SRME.
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Mercury Removal from Contaminated Water by Wood-Based Biochar Depends on Natural Organic Matter and Ionic Composition
Biochars can remove potentially toxic elements, such as inorganic mercury [Hg(II)] from contaminated waters. However, their performance in complex water matrices is rarely investigated, and the combined roles of natural organic matter (NOM) and ionic composition in the removal of Hg(II) by biochar remain unclear. Here, we investigate the influence of NOM and major ions such as chloride (Cl – ), nitrate (NO 3 – ), calcium (Ca 2+ ), and sodium (Na + ) on Hg(II) removal by a wood-based biochar (SWP700). Multiple sorption sites containing sulfur (S) were located within the porous SWP700. In the absence of NOM, Hg(II) removal was driven by these sites. Ca 2+ bridging was important in enhancing removal of negatively charged Hg(II)-chloro complexes. In the presence of NOM, formation of soluble Hg-NOM complexes (as seen from speciation calculations), which have limited access to biochar pores, suppressed Hg(II) removal, but Cl – and Ca 2+ could still facilitate it. The ability of Ca 2+ to aggregate NOM, including Hg-NOM complexes, promoted Hg(II) removal from the dissolved fraction (<0.45 μm). Hg(II) removal in the presence of Cl – followed a stepwise mechanism. Weakly bound oxygen functional groups in NOM were outcompeted by Cl – , forming smaller-sized Hg(II)-chloro complexes, which could access additional intraparticle sorption sites. Therein, Cl – was outcompeted by S, which finally immobilized Hg(II) in SWP700 as confirmed by extended X-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy. We conclude that in NOM containing oxic waters, with relatively high molar ratios of Cl – : NOM and Ca 2+ : NOM, Hg(II) removal can still be effective with SWP700.
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Mining Nontraditional Water Sources for a Distributed Hydrogen Economy
Securing decarbonized economies for energy and commodities will require abundant and widely available green H 2 . Ubiquitous wastewaters and nontraditional water sources could potentially feed water electrolyzers to produce this green hydrogen without competing with drinking water sources. Herein, we show that the energy and costs of treating nontraditional water sources such as municipal wastewater, industrial and resource extraction wastewater, and seawater are negligible with respect to those for water electrolysis. We also illustrate that the potential hydrogen energy that could be mined from these sources is vast. Based on these findings, we evaluate the implications of small-scale, distributed water electrolysis using disperse nontraditional water sources. Techno-economic analysis and life cycle analysis reveal that the significant contribution of H 2 transportation to costs and CO 2 emissions results in an optimal levelized cost of hydrogen at small- to moderate-scale water electrolyzer size. The implications of utilizing nontraditional water sources and decentralized or stranded renewable energy for distributed water electrolysis are highlighted for several hydrogen energy storage and chemical feedstock applications. Finally, we discuss challenges and opportunities for mining H 2 from nontraditional water sources to achieve resilient and sustainable economies for water and energy.
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Gas and Propane Combustion from Stoves Emits Benzene and Increases Indoor Air Pollution
Exposure pathways to the carcinogen benzene are well-established from tobacco smoke, oil and gas development, refining, gasoline pumping, and gasoline and diesel combustion. Combustion has also been linked to the formation of nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide, and formaldehyde indoors from gas stoves. To our knowledge, however, no research has quantified the formation of benzene indoors from gas combustion by stoves. Across 87 homes in California and Colorado, natural gas and propane combustion emitted detectable and repeatable levels of benzene that in some homes raised indoor benzene concentrations above well-established health benchmarks. Mean benzene emissions from gas and propane burners on high and ovens set to 350 °F ranged from 2.8 to 6.5 μg min –1 , 10 to 25 times higher than emissions from electric coil and radiant alternatives; neither induction stoves nor the food being cooked emitted detectable benzene. Benzene produced by gas and propane stoves also migrated throughout homes, in some cases elevating bedroom benzene concentrations above chronic health benchmarks for hours after the stove was turned off. Combustion of gas and propane from stoves may be a substantial benzene exposure pathway and can reduce indoor air quality.
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Solar Energy-driven Land-cover Change Could Alter Landscapes Critical to Animal Movement in the Continental United States
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Predicting Anaerobic Membrane Bioreactor Performance Using Flow-Cytometry-Derived High and Low Nucleic Acid Content Cells
Having a tool to monitor the microbial abundances rapidly and to utilize the data to predict the reactor performance would facilitate the operation of an anaerobic membrane bioreactor (AnMBR). This study aims to achieve the aforementioned scenario by developing a linear regression model that incorporates a time-lagging mode. The model uses low nucleic acid (LNA) cell numbers and the ratio of high nucleic acid (HNA) to LNA cells as an input data set. First, the model was trained using data sets obtained from a 35 L pilot-scale AnMBR. The model was able to predict the chemical oxygen demand (COD) removal efficiency and methane production 3.5 days in advance. Subsequent validation of the model using flow cytometry (FCM)-derived data (at time t – 3.5 days) obtained from another biologically independent reactor did not exhibit any substantial difference between predicted and actual measurements of reactor performance at time t. Further cell sorting, 16S rRNA gene sequencing, and correlation analysis partly attributed this accurate prediction to HNA genera (e.g., Anaerovibrio and unclassified Bacteroidales) and LNA genera (e.g., Achromobacter, Ochrobactrum, and unclassified Anaerolineae). In summary, our findings suggest that HNA and LNA cell routine enumeration, along with the trained model, can derive a fast approach to predict the AnMBR performance.
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Comparison of Conventional and Constrained Variational Methods for Computing Large-Scale Budgets and Forcing Fields
Analyses of atmospheric heat and moisture budgets serve as an effective tool to study convective characteristics over a region and to provide large-scale forcing fields for various modeling applications. This paper examines two popular methods for computing large-scale atmospheric budgets: the conventional budget method (CBM) using objectively gridded analyses based primarily on radiosonde data and the constrained variational analysis (CVA) approach which supplements vertical profiles of atmospheric fields with measurements at the top of the atmosphere and at the surface to conserve mass, water, energy, and momentum. Successful budget computations are dependent on accurate sampling and analyses of the thermodynamic state of the atmosphere and the divergence field associated with convection and the large-scale circulation that influences it. Utilizing analyses generated from data taken during Dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (DYNAMO) field campaign conducted over the central Indian Ocean from October to December 2011, we evaluate the merits of these budget approaches and examine their limitations. While many of the shortcomings of the CBM, in particular effects of sampling errors in sounding data, are effectively minimized with CVA, accurate large-scale diagnostics in CVA are dependent on reliable background fields and rainfall constraints. Finally, for the DYNAMO analyses examined, the operational model fields used as the CVA background state provided wind fields that accurately resolved the vertical structure of convection in the vicinity of Gan Island. However, biases in the model thermodynamic fields were somewhat amplified in CVA resulting in a convective environment much weaker than observed.
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Boundary-Layer-Coupled and Decoupled Clouds in Global Storm-Resolving Models: Comparisons With the ARM Observations
The accurate representation of interactions between clouds and planetary boundary layer (PBL) is a persistent challenge in climate models, critical for simulating surface energy budget. The emergence of kilometer-grid-scale global storm resolving models (GSRMs) offers the potential for enhanced details of PBL processes in these complex interactions. This study evaluates the representation of PBL-coupled and decoupled clouds in nine GSRM simulations against extensive ground-based observations by the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program, across six sites encompassing diverse regimes such as marine and continental environments in tropics and midlatitude. By differentiating coupling based on the relative positions between cloud bases and PBL tops, our analysis focuses on the simulation of PBL height, cloud frequency, position and vertical extent. The GSRMs generally exhibit commendable agreements with observed cloud structures and PBL diurnal cycles across different ARM sites. In contrast to the relatively consistent representation of decoupled clouds, discrepancies exist between the simulated and the observed coupled clouds, particularly in areas of intense convection, for example, over tropical rainforests and mountainous regions. These biases are probably associated with the models' tendency to underestimate the boundary layer humidity and the frequency of coupled clouds within different ranges of PBL heights. This study underscores the importance for continuous improvements in the representation of boundary layer and convection within these global kilometer-grid-scale models.
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Potential impacts of mercury released from thawing permafrost
Abstract Mercury (Hg) is a naturally occurring element that bonds with organic matter and, when converted to methylmercury, is a potent neurotoxicant. Here we estimate potential future releases of Hg from thawing permafrost for low and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios using a mechanistic model. By 2200, the high emissions scenario shows annual permafrost Hg emissions to the atmosphere comparable to current global anthropogenic emissions. By 2100, simulated Hg concentrations in the Yukon River increase by 14% for the low emissions scenario, but double for the high emissions scenario. Fish Hg concentrations do not exceed United States Environmental Protection Agency guidelines for the low emissions scenario by 2300, but for the high emissions scenario, fish in the Yukon River exceed EPA guidelines by 2050. Our results indicate minimal impacts to Hg concentrations in water and fish for the low emissions scenario and high impacts for the high emissions scenario.
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$\mathrm{COBRA}$ improves the completeness and contiguity of viral genomes assembled from metagenomes
Viruses are often studied using metagenome-assembled sequences, but genome incompleteness hampers comprehensive and accurate analyses. Contig Overlap Based Re-Assembly (COBRA) resolves assembly breakpoints based on the de Bruijn graph and joins contigs. Here we benchmarked COBRA using ocean and soil viral datasets. COBRA accurately joined the assembled sequences and achieved notably higher genome accuracy than binning tools. From 231 published freshwater metagenomes, we obtained 7,334 bacteriophage clusters, ~83% of which represent new phage species. Notably, ~70% of these were circular, compared with 34% before COBRA analyses. We expanded sampling of huge phages (≥200 kbp), the largest of which was curated to completion (717 kbp). Improved phage genomes from Rotsee Lake provided context for metatranscriptomic data and indicated the in situ activity of huge phages, whiB-encoding phages and cysC- and cysH-encoding phages. COBRA improves viral genome assembly contiguity and completeness, thus the accuracy and reliability of analyses of gene content, diversity and evolution.
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Modeling suggests fossil fuel emissions have been driving increased land carbon uptake since the turn of the 20th Century
Terrestrial vegetation removes CO 2 from the atmosphere; an important climate regulation service that slows global warming. This 119 Pg C per annum transfer of CO 2 into plants—gross primary productivity (GPP)—is the largest land carbon flux globally. While understanding past and anticipated future GPP changes is necessary to support carbon management, the factors driving long-term changes in GPP are largely unknown. In this study, we show that 1901 to 2010 changes in GPP have been dominated by anthropogenic activity. Our dual constraint attribution approach provides three insights into the spatiotemporal patterns of GPP change. First, anthropogenic controls on GPP change have increased from 57% (1901 decade) to 94% (2001 decade) of the vegetated land surface. Second, CO 2 fertilization and nitrogen deposition are the most important drivers of change, 19.8 and 11.1 Pg C per annum (2001 decade) respectively, especially in the tropics and industrialized areas since the 1970’s. Third, changes in climate have functioned as fertilization to enhance GPP (1.4 Pg C per annum in the 2001 decade). These findings suggest that, from a land carbon balance perspective, the Anthropocene began over 100 years ago and that global change drivers have allowed GPP uptake to keep pace with anthropogenic emissions.
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