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NASA NTRS2016

Weather and Climate Change Impacts on Human Mortality in Bangladesh

Weather and climate profoundly affect human health. Several studies have demonstrated a U-, V-, or J-shaped temperature-mortality relationship with increasing death rates at the lower and particularly upper end of the temperature distribution. The objectives of this study were (1) to analyze the relationship between temperature and mortality in Bangladesh for different subpopulations and (2) to project future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios. We used (non-)parametric Generalized Additive Models adjusted for trend, season and day of the month to analyze the effect of temperature on daily mortality. We found a decrease in mortality with increasing temperature over a wide range of values; between the 90th and 95th percentile an abrupt increase in mortality was observed which was particularly pronounced for the elderly above the age of 65 years, for males, as well as in urban areas and in areas with a high socio-economic status. Daily historical and future temperature values were obtained from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset. This dataset is comprised of downscaled climate scenarios for the globe that are derived from the General Circulation Model (GCM) runs conducted under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The derived dose-response functions were used to estimate the number of heat-related deaths occurring during the 1990s (1980-2005), the 2020s (2011-2040) and the 2050s (2041-2070). We estimated that excess deaths due to heat will triple from the 1990s to the 2050s, with an annual number of 0.5 million excess deaths in 1990 to and expected number of 1.5 millions in 2050.

mortality↗

NASA NTRS2019

Satellite Estimates of Momentum Fluxes from High-Impact Gravity Wave Events in the Stratosphere and Their Effects on Circulation

Recent assessments of chemistry-climate models (CCMs) reveal biases in temperatures and winds in, especially but not limited to, the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere, where winds are generally too strong and temperatures too cold. The reasons for these biases are not completely understood, but it is thought that missing wave drag in models is a major culprit. Observational and modeling studies support this idea by elucidating the role of infrequent but very high-impact gravity wave events in the stratosphere. These highly intermittent gravity wave events with large momentum fluxes are the most important drivers of circulation and transport in the stratosphere, yet they are not treated correctly in most global models. This has implications for the cold pole problem in the Southern Hemisphere and the global Brewer-Dobson circulation in general. In this presentation we show results combining HIRDLS and AIRS to derive detailed gravity wave properties and obtain new quantitative estimates of the local and intermittent gravity wave drag in the stratosphere. The combination of high-vertical resolution (1 km) and near-global (60°S to 80°N), close horizontal sampling (100 km) makes HIRDLS temperatures the best available dataset for retrieving gravity wave properties needed to diagnose gravity wave effects on circulation. We further exploit the close zonal sampling of HIRDLS near the turnaround latitude in the Southern Hemisphere to obtain estimates of the missing drag. We combine the HIRDLS results with AIRS brightness temperature images, which reveal high-spatial resolution detail of long vertical wavelength waves, to obtain 3-D, day-to-day variability in gravity wave properties and attribute the wave events to wave sources. The AIRS and HIRDLS datasets complement each other well since the two instruments have very different resolutions and horizontal sampling.

Holt, Laura↗

NASA NTRS1987

Optimized retrievals of precipitable water from the VAS 'split window'

Precipitable water fields have been retrieved from the VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) using a radiation transfer model for the differential water vapor absorption between the 11- and 12-micron 'split window' channels. Previous moisture retrievals using only the split window channels provided very good space-time continuity but poor absolute accuracy. This note describes how retrieval errors can be significantly reduced from plus or minus 0.9 to plus or minus 0.6 gm/sq cm by empirically optimizing the effective air temperature and absorption coefficients used in the two-channel model. The differential absorption between the VAS 11- and 12-micron channels, empirically estimated from 135 colocated VAS-RAOB observations, is found to be approximately 50 percent smaller than the theoretical estimates. Similar discrepancies have been noted previously between theoretical and empirical absorption coefficients applied to the retrieval of sea surface temperatures using radiances observed by VAS and polar-orbiting satellites. These discrepancies indicate that radiation transfer models for the 11-micron window appear to be less accurate than the satellite observations.

Chesters, Dennis↗

NASA NTRS1992

Sensor-model prediction, monitoring and in-situ control of liquid RTM advanced fiber architecture composite processing

In-situ frequency dependent electromagnetic sensors (FDEMS) and the Loos resin transfer model have been used to select and control the processing properties of an epoxy resin during liquid pressure RTM impregnation and cure. Once correlated with viscosity and degree of cure the FDEMS sensor monitors and the RTM processing model predicts the reaction advancement of the resin, viscosity and the impregnation of the fabric. This provides a direct means for predicting, monitoring, and controlling the liquid RTM process in-situ in the mold throughout the fabrication process and the effects of time, temperature, vacuum and pressure. Most importantly, the FDEMS-sensor model system has been developed to make intelligent decisions, thereby automating the liquid RTM process and removing the need for operator direction.

Kranbuehl, D.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Thermal Modeling and Analysis of the Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRad)

The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRad) is a payload carried by an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) at altitudes up to 60,000 ft with the purpose of measuring ocean surface wind speeds and near ocean surface rain rates in hurricanes. The payload includes several components that must maintain steady temperatures throughout the flight. Minimizing the temperature drift of these components allows for accurate data collection and conclusions to be drawn concerning the behavior of hurricanes. HIRad has flown on several different UAVs over the past two years during the fall hurricane season. Based on the data from the 2011 flight, a Thermal Desktop model was created to simulate the payload and reproduce the temperatures. Using this model, recommendations were made to reduce the temperature drift through the use of heaters controlled by resistance temperature detector (RTD) sensors. The suggestions made were implemented for the 2012 hurricane season and further data was collected. The implementation of the heaters reduced the temperature drift for a portion of the flight, but after a period of time, the temperatures rose. With this new flight data, the thermal model was updated and correlated. Detailed analysis was conducted to determine a more effective way to reduce the temperature drift. The final recommendations made were to adjust the set temperatures of the heaters for 2013 flights and implement hardware changes for flights beyond 2013.

Mauro, Stephanie↗

NASA NTRS2013

Modeling and Analysis of the Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD)

Mauro, Stephanie↗

NASA NTRS1989

Thermal modelling of various thermal barrier coatings in a high heat flux rocket engine

Traditional Air Plasma Sprayed (APS) ZrO2-Y2O3 Thermal Barrier Coatings (TBC's) and Low Pressure Plasma Sprayed (LPPS) ZrO2-Y2O3/Ni-Cr-Al-Y cermet coatings were tested in a H2/O2 rocked engine. The traditional ZrO2-Y2O3 (TBC's) showed considerable metal temperature reductions during testing in the hydrogen-rich environment. A thermal model was developed to predict the thermal response of the tubes with the various coatings. Good agreement was observed between predicted temperatures and measured temperatures at the inner wall of the tube and in the metal near the coating/metal interface. The thermal model was also used to examine the effect of the differences in the reported values of the thermal conductivity of plasma sprayed ZrO2-Y2O3 ceramic coatings, the effect of 100 micron (0.004 in.) thick metallic bond coat, the effect of tangential heat transfer around the tube, and the effect or radiation from the surface of the ceramic coating. It was shown that for the short duration testing in the rocket engine, the most important of these considerations was the effect of the uncertainty in the thermal conductivity of temperatures (greater than 100 C) predicted in the tube. The thermal model was also used to predict the thermal response of the coated rod in order to quantify the difference in the metal temperatures between the two substrate geometries and to explain the previously-observed increased life of coatings on rods over that on tubes. A thermal model was also developed to predict heat transfer to the leading edge of High Pressure Fuel Turbopump (HPFTP) blades during start-up of the space shuttle main engines. The ability of various TBC's to reduce metal temperatures during the two thermal excursions occurring on start-up was predicted. Temperature reductions of 150 to 470 C were predicted for 165 micron (0.0065 in.) coatings for the greater of the two thermal excursions.

Nesbitt, James A.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Response of an interactive two-dimensional model to ozone changes - An estimate of the radiative dynamical feedback effect

The response of the interactive two-dimensional stratospheric model described by Schneider et al. (1989) to an increased chemical removal of ozone and the sensitivity of the calculated assessments to the choice of eddy diffusion coefficients are investigated using a simplified ozone chemistry model. It was found that the radiative dynamical feedback in the model leads to ozone losses at high altitudes to be about one third smaller than predicted by a model with fixed temperature and circulation. The radiative feedback has a smaller effect on ozone (losses decrease by about one sixth) in the lower stratosphere. Predicted ozone losses increase with decreasing dissipation and eddy diffusion in the lower stratosphere.

Schneider, Hans R.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Bubble Dynamics on a Heated Surface

In this work, we study the combined thermocapillary and natural convective flow generated by a bubble on a heated solid surface. The interaction between gas and vapor bubbles with the surrounding fluid is of interest for both space and ground-based processing. On earth, the volumetric forces are dominant, especially, in apparatuses with large volume to surface ratio. But in the reduced gravity environment of orbiting spacecraft, surface forces become more important and the effects of Marangoni convection are easily unmasked. In order to delineate the roles of the various interacting phenomena, a combined numerical-experimental approach is adopted. The temperature field is visualized using Mach-Zehnder interferometry and the flow field is observed by a laser sheet flow visualization technique. A finite element numerical model is developed which solves the two-dimensional momentum and energy equations and includes the effects of bubble surface deformation. Steady state temperature and velocity fields predicted by the finite element model are in excellent qualitative agreement with the experimental results. A parametric study of the interaction between Marangoni and natural convective flows including conditions pertinent to microgravity space experiments is presented. Numerical simulations clearly indicate that there is a considerable difference between 1-g and low-g temperature and flow fields induced by the bubble.

Kassemi, Mohammad↗

NASA NTRS1993

Numerical modeling and passive thermal control of external lighting systems for Space Station Freedom

Consideration is given to three generic families of luminaries with lamp power ranging from 11 to 150 watts. A concept of an equivalent radiation node boundary temperature was used to impose worst hot and cold environments, and transient finite difference models were developed to study the effects of geometry and optical properties of thermal control coatings. Minimum and maximum transient temperatures were computed at the critical location during 90 minute orbit and were compared with allowable limits. Results show that with the proper choice of optical properties, the luminaries can be passively controlled to within acceptable limits.

Buck, Gregory A.↗

NASA NTRS1973

The scattering mean free path in the Uranian atmosphere

New measurements of the equivalent widths of the 4.0 S(0) and S(1) H2 quadrupole lines in the Uranian spectrum have been obtained using high dispersion (4.12 A/mm) image-tube spectrography. The measured equivalent widths are 62 plus or minus 19 mA and 58 plus or minus 13 mA for the S(0) and S(1) lines, respectively. Curve-of-growth analysis in terms of a reflecting layer model yields an H2 column density of 780 (+940 or -330) km amagat and a temperature of 78 (+80 or -24) K. Interpretation using a semiinfinite, homogeneous, isotropically scattering model for line formation yields a scattering mean free path at 6400 A of 550 plus or minus 250 km amagat. Quoted errors for both the H2 column density and the scattering mean free path include the effect of uncertainty in the choice of atmospheric temperature. The results are discussed in terms of current models for the Uranian atmosphere.

Price, M. J.↗

NASA NTRS2016

The Far-Ultraviolet Spectra of Two Hot PG1159 Stars

PG 1159 stars are hot, hydrogen-deficient (pre-) white dwarfs with atmospheres mainly composed of helium, carbon, and oxygen. The unusual surface chemistry is the result of a late helium-shell flash. Observed element abundances enable us to test stellar evolution models quantitatively with respect to their nucleosynthesis products formed near the helium-burning shell of the progenitor asymptotic giant branch stars. Because of the high effective temperatures (T(sub eff)), abundance determinations require ultraviolet spectroscopy and non-local thermodynamic equilibrium model atmosphere analyses. Up to now, we have presented results for the prototype of this spectral class and two cooler members (T(sub eff) in the range 85,000-140,000 K). Here we report on the results for two even hotter stars (PG 1520+525 and PG 1144+005, both with T(sub eff) = 150,000 K) which are the only two objects in this temperature-gravity region for which useful far-ultraviolet spectra are available, and revisit the prototype star. Previous results on the abundances of some species are confirmed, while results on others (Si, P, S) are revised. In particular, a solar abundance of sulphur is measured in contrast to earlier claims of a strong S deficiency that contradicted stellar evolution models. For the first time, we assess the abundances of Na, Al, andCl with newly constructed non-LTE model atoms. Besides the main constituents (He, C, O), we determine the abundances (or upper limits) of N, F, Ne, Na, Al, Si, P, S, Cl, Ar, and Fe. Generally, good agreement with stellar models is found.

Werner, K.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Modeling free convective gravitational effects in chemical vapor deposition

In this paper, a combined fluid-mechanics, mass-transport, and chemistry model describing CVD in an open-tube atmospheric-pressure flow reactor is developed. The model allows gas-phase reactions to proceed to equilibrium and accounts for finite reaction rates at the surface of the deposition substrate. This model is a useful intermediate step toward a model employing fully rate-limited chemistry. The model is used to predict the effects of free convection on flow patterns, temperature and species-concentration profiles, and local deposition rates for silicon deposited by silane pyrolysis. These results are discussed in terms of implications for CVD of silicon and other compounds, microgravity studies, and techniques for testing and validating the model.

Stinespring, C. D.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Integration of scramjets with waverider configurations

This paper presents a parametric study of a scramjet propulsion system integrated into a waverider lifting-body configuration. The analysis explores the effect of inlet geometry, internal cross-section-area distribution of the combustor section, the distribution of the heat release of the reacting mixture, the heat transfer, and the friction on the performance of the propulsion system. The Mach number, temperature, and pressure distributions within the scramjet model are studied parametrically, and the effects on the thrust are obtained. The results provide insight on the design concepts and problems that might arise for a given internal-flow configuration.

Rasmussen, M. L.↗

NASA NTRS2017

The Effects of Inhomogeneous Proton-Alpha Drifts on the Heating of the Solar Wind

Previous modeling studies have demonstrated that waves and super-Alfvenic drift can lead to perpendicular preferential heating of the alpha particles with respect to protons. Using a 2.5-D hybrid model of the solar wind alpha-proton plasma, we study the effects of inhomogeneous (across the magnetic field) background streaming focusing on the fast solar wind. We explore the effects of an initial relative, inhomogeneous ion drift on the perpendicular ion heating and cooling and consider the effects of solar wind expansion. We study the spectrum of the magnetic fluctuations in the inhomogeneous background solar wind and demonstrate the generation of oblique waves and their effects on enhanced resonant anisotropic ion heating. The model reproduces the typical ion temperature anisotropy values seen in observations. Using our model, we find that inhomogeneous super-Alfvenic ion drift in the plasma generates significant power of oblique waves in the solar wind plasma, in addition to enhanced heating compared to the non-drifting populations. We demonstrate the effects of various inhomogeneity profiles and regions of the drift on the ion anisotropic heating in super-Alfvenic and near-Alfvenic drifts. We find that the cooling effect due to the solar wind expansion is not significant when super-Alfvenic drifts are considered.

proton↗

NASA NTRS1976

Statistical equilibrium calculations for silicon in early-type model stellar atmospheres

Line profiles of 36 multiplets of silicon (Si) II, III, and IV were computed for a grid of model atmospheres covering the range from 15,000 to 35,000 K in effective temperature and 2.5 to 4.5 in log (gravity). The computations involved simultaneous solution of the steady-state statistical equilibrium equations for the populations and of the equation of radiative transfer in the lines. The variables were linearized, and successive corrections were computed until a minimal accuracy of 1/1000 in the line intensities was reached. The common assumption of local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) was dropped. The model atmospheres used also were computed by non-LTE methods. Some effects that were incorporated into the calculations were the depression of the continuum by free electrons, hydrogen and ionized helium line blocking, and auto-ionization and dielectronic recombination, which later were found to be insignificant. Use of radiation damping and detailed electron (quadratic Stark) damping constants had small but significant effects on the strong resonance lines of Si III and IV. For weak and intermediate-strength lines, large differences with respect to LTE computations, the results of which are also presented, were found in line shapes and strengths. For the strong lines the differences are generally small, except for the models at the hot, low-gravity extreme of our range. These computations should be useful in the interpretation of the spectra of stars in the spectral range B0-B5, luminosity classes III, IV, and V.

Kamp, L. W.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Dynamic compensation in the central Pacific Ocean

The intermediate-wavelength geoid (lambda similar to 2000 km) and sea-floor topography fields in the central Pacific Ocean were studied in terms of static and dynamic compensation models. Topographic features on the sea-floor with lambda less than 1000 km were found to be compensated both regionally, by the elastic strength of the lithosphere, and locally, by displacing mantle material to reach isostatic adjustment. The larger-scale sea-floor topography and the corresponding geoid anomalies with lambda similar to 2000 km cannot be explained by either local or regional compensation. The topography and the resulting geoid anomaly at this wavelength were modeled by considering the dynamic effects arising from viscous stresses in a layer of fluid with a highly temperature-dependent viscosity for the cases of: (1) surface cooling, and (2) basal heating. In this model, the mechanical properties of the elastic part of the lithosphere were taken into account by considering an activation energy of about 520 kJ/mol in the Arrhenius law for the viscosity. Numerical predictions of the topography, total geoid anomaly, and admittance were obtained, and the results show that the thermal perturbation in the layer, which accounts for the mass deficit, must be located close to the surface to compensate the gravitational effect of the surface deformation. For the case of basal heating, the temperature dependence of viscosity results in a separation of the upper, quasi-rigid lid from the lower mobile fluid, hence inhibiting the development of a compensating thermal perturbation at shallow depths. The results clearly rule out small-scale, upper-mantle convection as the source of these anomalies. Instead, the geophysical observables can be well explained by a shallow, transient thermal perturbation.

Hinojosa, Juan Homero↗

NASA NTRS2019

Climates of Warm Earth-like Planets. II. Rotational "Goldilocks" Zones for Fractional Habitability and Silicate Weathering

Planetary rotation rate has a significant effect on atmospheric circulation, where the strength of the Coriolis effect in part determines the efficiency of latitudinal heat transport, altering cloud distributions, surface temperatures, and precipitation patterns. In this study, we use the ROCKE-3D dynamic ocean general circulation model to study the effects of slow rotations and increased insolations on the "fractional habitability" and silicate weathering rate of an Earth-like world. Defining the fractional habitability f (h) to be the percentage of a planet's surface that falls in the 0 ≤ T ≤ 100 °C temperature regime, we find a moderate increase in f (h) with a 10% and 20% increase in insolation and a possible maximum in f (h) at sidereal day lengths between 8 and 32 times that of the modern Earth. By tracking precipitation and runoff, we further determine that there is a rotational regime centered on a 4 day period in which the silicate weathering rate is maximized and is particularly strongly peaked at higher overall insolations. Because of weathering's integral role in the long-term carbonate–silicate cycle, we suggest that climate stability may be strongly affected by the anticipated rotational evolution of temperate terrestrial-type worlds and should be considered a major factor in their study. In light of our results, we argue that planetary rotation period is an important factor to consider when determining the habitability of terrestrial worlds.

atmospheric effects↗