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At least 559 records · Page 31

Agent-based Modeling for the Multi-objective Optimization of Energy Production Pathways: Integrated Techno-Economics and Life Cycle Assessment

This project developed an integrated modeling framework to evaluate how purpose-grown bioenergy feedstocks could support large-scale sustainable aviation fuel production in the United States. Led by Colorado State University with project partners, the work combined geographically resolved analysis, techno-economic assessment, life cycle assessment, multi-objective optimization, and agent-based modeling to examine feedstock performance, deployment potential, land-use implications, and adoption dynamics. The overall goal was to identify practical and sustainable pathways for producing aviation fuel from feedstocks such as energy crops, woody crops, oilseeds, and algae while helping inform policy, investment, and research needs tied to national SAF goals. In essence, the project provides a systems-level assessment of the opportunities and constraints associated with scaling bioenergy-based aviation fuels in the U.S.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Irrigation Infrastructure and Modernization – Setting a Baseline: Estimates of Irrigation Water Conveyance Infrastructure Extents and Composition and the Potential Water, Energy, and Economic Benefits of Modernization in the Western U.S.

In the Western United States (U.S.), water delivery for irrigation is still largely managed using century-old equipment and designs. Modernization of this vital water conveyance infrastructure, such as piping of earthen canals, is known to improve water availability and water quality for farmers, while saving energy and enabling new hydropower. However, there is sparse information about the extent of irrigation water delivery infrastructure, which makes it challenging to estimate the cost of upgrades at scale and the potential benefits of accelerating modernization work. This report estimates a variety of previously unquantified data points related to irrigation water delivery infrastructure in the Western U.S. to support stakeholders interested in nationwide modernization planning. The findings should be considered approximations, useful for understanding the scale, range, or variability of these indicators. Taken together, the findings of this report illustrate some of the challenges and opportunities involved in modernizing the agricultural water delivery infrastructure in the Western U.S. Accelerating the pace of modernization could strengthen the long-term resilience of U.S. food systems while providing significant economic, energy, water, and environmental benefits.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Geologic Seawater Air Conditioning (GeoSWAC) System: Resource Assessment and Techno-Economic Evaluation in Puerto Rico

Puerto Rico's hot, humid climate drives a high and persistent demand for cooling, straining an aging and fuel-dependent energy grid while increasing peak electricity loads. Much of this challenge stems from inefficient air-conditioning systems operating in buildings without passive cooling design, making cooling both costly and vulnerable to disruption - especially during hurricanes. To address these issues, researchers evaluated a new alternative called Geologic Seawater Air Conditioning (GeoSWAC), which uses inland wells connected to naturally cold, deep seawater. By avoiding long offshore pipelines and energy-intensive refrigeration cycles, GeoSWAC can cut electricity use by 75-90%, reduce environmental impacts, and operate more reliably during power outages. A case study at the University of Puerto Rico's Rio Piedras campus found that GeoSWAC could deliver significantly lower levelized costs of cooling, reduced operational expenses, and improved water conservation compared to the campus's existing chilled-water plant. The system offers key advantages - including access to a constant cold heat sink, low pumping requirements, and enhanced resilience - for coastal regions such as Puerto Rico, the broader Caribbean, and Florida. However, its effectiveness depends heavily on site-specific geological conditions, such as subsurface connectivity and aquifer characteristics, which require detailed investigation. Future research should refine hydrogeological models, conduct performance and economic analyses, and address regulatory and permitting frameworks to support broader adoption of this promising technology.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Preliminary Techno-Economic Assessment of Gas Switching Reforming (GSR) of Natural Gas for Pure Hydrogen Production and Power Generation with Integrated CO2 Capture

The increasing demand for hydrogen and the CO2 intensity of natural gas (NG) reforming motivate the development of low-carbon-emission hydrogen production technologies. Gas Switching Reforming (GSR) is an advanced auto-thermal reforming technology that produces hydrogen or syngas from natural gas. It integrates inherent CO2 capture by utilizing a specialized oxygen carrier in a single fluidized bed reactor, eliminating the need for complex, energy-intensive post-combustion separation. GSR technology builds upon Chemical Looping Reforming (CLR), an experimentally proven technology with strong potential for scaling up. In this study, select oxygen carriers (OC) (NiO/Al2O3, Fe2O3-CeO2/Al2O3, and magnetite) were tested in methane steam reforming in a fixed bed reactor to determine their relative reactivities under relevant conditions for GSR (800 °C, 7 bar total pressure). Process models were then developed to perform techno-economic analysis (TEA) of GSR for hydrogen production (GSR-H₂) and a combined cycle (GSR-CC) in which high-purity H₂ is fired in a gas turbine to produce electricity. Operating at 10 bar and 1100 °C and with the additional recovery steps implemented increased H₂ production by ~30% and improved efficiency relative to prior studies. For GSR-H₂, the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) is 1.61–1.64 $/kg-H₂, competitive with a reference SMR case, though operating and maintenance costs are higher due to increased electricity demand. GSR-CC has a significantly higher levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) than its reference NGCC (natural gas combined cycle) plant, suggesting it is less competitive; however, increasing production scale could make it more attractive. Life-cycle results for GSR-H2 indicate NG consumption drives ~75% of total global warming impacts (~2.3 kg CO2 eq/kg H2). An environmental, health, and safety screening suggests iron-based carriers are comparatively safer, whereas NiO may pose greater risks. Overall, GSR-H2 is a scalable, competitive option for hydrogen production using nickel and non-nickel OC.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Preliminary techno-economic assessment of gas switching reforming (GSR) of natural gas for pure hydrogen production and power generation with integrated CO2 capture

The increasing demand for hydrogen and the CO2 intensity of natural gas (NG) reforming motivate the development of low-carbon-emission hydrogen production technologies. Gas Switching Reforming (GSR) with integrated CO2 capture, a technology based on Chemical Looping Reforming (CLR), has been experimentally proven and shows potential for scale-up. In this study, select oxygen carriers (OC) (NiO/Al2O3, Fe2O3-CeO2/Al2O3, and magnetite) were tested in methane steam reforming in a fixed bed reactor to determine their relative reactivities under relevant conditions for GSR (800 °C, 7 bar total pressure). Process models were then developed to perform techno-economic analysis (TEA) of GSR for hydrogen production (GSR-H2) and a combined cycle (GSR-CC) in which high-purity H2 is fired in a gas turbine to produce electricity. Operating at 10 bar and 1100 °C and with the additional recovery steps implemented increased H2 production by ∼ 30% and improved efficiency relative to prior studies. For GSR-H2, the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) is 1.61–1.64 $/kg-H2, competitive with a reference SMR case, though operating and maintenance costs are higher due to increased electricity demand. GSR-CC has a significantly higher levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) than its reference NGCC (natural gas combined cycle) plant, suggesting it is less competitive; however, increasing production scale could make it more attractive. Life-cycle results for GSR-H2 indicate NG consumption drives ∼ 75% of total global warming impacts (∼2.3 kg CO2 eq/kg H2). An environmental, health, and safety screening suggests iron-based carriers are comparatively safer, whereas NiO may pose greater risks. Overall, GSR-H2 is a scalable, competitive option for hydrogen production using nickel and non-nickel OC.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Enabling Production of Algal Biofuels by Techno-Economic Optimization of Co-Product Suites

Recent techno-economic analysis (TEA) has underscored that for algal biofuels to be cost competitive with petroleum fuels, co-products are necessary to offset the cost of fuel production. The co-product suite must scale with fuel production while also maximizing value from the non-fuel precursor components. The co-product suite also depends on algal biomass composition, which is highly dynamic and depends on environmental conditions during cultivation. Intentional shifts in composition during cultivation are often associated with reduced biomass productivity, which can increase feedstock production costs for the algae-based biorefinery. The optimal algae-based biorefinery configuration is thus a function of many factors. We have found that comprehensive TEA, which requires the construction of process models with detailed mass and energy balances, along with a complete accounting of capital and operating expenditures for a commercial-scale production facility, provides invaluable insight into the viability of a proposed biorefinery configuration. This insight is reflected in improved viability for one biorefining approach that we have developed over the last 10 years, namely, the Combined Algal Processing (CAP) approach. This approach fractionates algal biomass into carbohydrate-, lipid-, and protein-rich fractions, and tailors upgrading chemistry to the composition of each fraction. In particular, transitioning from valorization of only the lipids to a co-product suite from multiple components of high-carbohydrate algal biomass can reduce the minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) from more than $8/gallon of gasoline equivalent (GGE) to $2.50/GGE. This paper summarizes that progress and discusses several surprising implications in this optimization approach.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

AssessCCUS: An Integrated Approach for Aggregating Resources to Enable Techno-Economic and Life Cycle Assessment of Carbon Management Technologies

Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) - also sometimes known as carbon management - technologies are becoming an increasingly important part of the portfolio of technologies necessary to mitigate climate change and defossilize industrial production systems (Sick, 2021). These technologies capture carbon dioxide from industrial point sources or from the atmosphere directly and then either sequester it or use it as a carbon source in valuable products. Potential utilization pathways include, but are not limited to, concrete, fuels, and certain commodity chemicals, and sequestration pathways can include permanent geological storage or temporary storage in natural sinks ranging from forests to agricultural soil. Regardless of the pathway, assessment of the economic and environmental performance of the technologies is important for understanding their potential scalability and impact as well as developing plans to minimize life cycle costs and potential environmental trade-offs. A full discussion of potential trade-offs associated with CCUS is outside the scope of this article, but promoting assessment broadly helps to stimulate important conversations about the benefits and drawbacks of any particular technological choice.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Economics of Crop Rotations With and Without Carinata for Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production in the SE United States

In 2019, the aviation sector in the United States emitted 255 million metric tons of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions, i.e., about five percent of the total domestic CO 2 emissions from the energy sector. The sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) derived from carinata (Brassica carinata) could reduce CO 2 emissions of the aviation sector in the United States. Therefore, it is important to estimate changes in farm economics with and without carinata for ascertaining its production feasibility. In this context, the current study first assesses a combination of 12 popular rotations of corn, cotton, peanut, and soybean with winter crops of winter wheat and carinata in South Georgia over 4 years. Then, the net present values (NPVs) of 292 feasible cropping systems over 4 years are calculated. Finally, this study develops a risk model for ascertaining the probability distributions of NPVs for selected cropping systems subject to uncertainties related to prices and yields of summer and winter crops. Carinata in the corn-corn-soybean rotation has the highest NPV ($\$$2,996/ha). The least risky rotation is cotton-cotton-peanut, with a 58.9% probability of a positive NPV. Carinata can decrease the risk level of crop rotations by 8.1%, only if a contract price of $\$$440.9/t is offered. Therefore, a risk averse, risk neutral, or risk acceptant farmer can potentially include carinata in the rotation. Overall, carinata would increase the profitability of farm operations and decrease risk in the SE United States, and therefore, a high likelihood exists, that farmers would adopt it for meeting the growing demand for SAF in the United States.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Performance and Economic Analysis of Organosolv Softwood and Herbaceous Lignins to Activated Carbons as Electrode Materials in Supercapacitors

In this work, yellow pine (YP, softwood) and switchgrass (SG, grass) lignins were extracted as a coproduct of an organosolv γ-valerolactone (GVL) biorefinery that also produces biofuels and furfural. The extracted lignins were converted to carbon precursors for synthesizing porous activated carbon electrodes for high energy-density supercapacitors. This research details the impact of lignin composition on the derived porous structures and electrochemical properties of activated carbons. Lignin precursors with various syringyl (S) to guaiacyl (G) contents were characterized using 31 P nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) and two-dimensional 1 H‒ 13 C NMR. A two-step activation process, using steam and carbon dioxide as the activating agents, enabled the formation of porous carbons structures with high surface area. The capacitive behavior of supercapacitors was systematically characterized by cyclic voltammetry, charge-discharge cycling, and electrochemical impedance spectroscopy. The specific capacitance of YP and SG capacitors reached 367 and 221 F g −1 , respectively. Both types of capacitors demonstrated remarkably stable capacitance (capacitance retention >90%) along with excellent Coulombic efficiency (>99%) over 10,000 cycles. Compared to SG electrode, the better electrochemical performance achieved with YP electrodes was mainly due to shorter diffusion path, improved ionic mobility, and increased active surface area. The inexpensive lignin-based porous electrodes synthesized in this work can be used for various electrochemical devices for improved performance, decreased cost, and enhanced durability. This work also demonstrates that the selection of feedstock and appropriate processing conditions can tailor the structure of carbon composites for targeted applications. Techno-economic analysis indicates that YP and SG activated carbons can be produced at a minimum selling price of $8,493 and $6,670 per ton, respectively, which is competitive with the commercially available supercapacitor-grade activated carbons.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Techno-Economic Optimization of CSP Plants with Free-Falling Particle Receivers

Particle receivers are one of the candidates for the next generation of CSP plants, whose goal is to reduce the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) to 0.05 $/kWh. This paper presents a techno-economic analysis to study if a CSP system with free-falling particle receiver can achieve this goal. The plant analyzed integrates two ground-based bins to store the excess energy and a supercritical CO2 cycle to generate electricity. The model used for the analysis presents several upgrades to previous particle systems models in order to increase its fidelity, accuracy, and representativeness of an actual system. The main upgrades are the addition of off-design conditions during the annual simulations in all the components and an improved receiver model validated against CFD simulations. The size of the main components is optimized to obtain the system configuration with minimum LCOE. The results show that particle CSP systems can reduce the LCOE to 0.056 $/kWh if the configuration is composed of 1.61 × 106 m2 of heliostats, a 250 m high tower with a 537 m2 falling particle curtain, and 16 h thermal energy storage.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Robust Scheduling of Networked Microgrids for Economics and Resilience Improvement

The benefits of networked microgrids in terms of economics and resilience are investigated and validated in this work. Considering the stochastic unintentional islanding conditions and conventional forecast errors of both renewable generation and loads, a two-stage adaptive robust optimization is proposed to minimize the total operating cost of networked microgrids in the worst scenario of the modeled uncertainties. By coordinating the dispatch of distributed energy resources (DERs) and responsive demand among networked microgrids, the total operating cost is minimized, which includes the start-up and shut-down cost of distributed generators (DGs), the operation and maintenance (O&M) cost of DGs, the cost of buying/selling power from/to the utility grid, the degradation cost of energy storage systems (ESSs), and the cost associated with load shedding. The proposed optimization is solved with the column and constraint generation (C&CG) algorithm. The results of case studies demonstrate the advantages of networked microgrids over independent microgrids in terms of reducing total operating cost and improving the resilience of power supply.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Techno-Economic Analysis of a Thermally Integrated Solid Oxide Fuel Cell and Compressed Air Energy Storage Hybrid System

Natural-gas-fueled solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) systems have the potential for high-efficiency conversion of carbon to power due to the underlying electrochemical conversion process while readily facilitating carbon capture through the separation of the fuel and oxidant sources. Compressed air energy storage (CAES) technology can potentially store significant quantities of energy for later use with a high round-trip efficiency and lower cost when compared with state-of-the-art battery technology. The base load generation capability of SOFC can be coupled with CAES technology to provide a potentially flexible, low-carbon solution to meet the fluctuating electricity demands imposed by the increasing share of intermittent variable renewable energy (VRE) production. SOFC and CAES can be hybridized through thermal integration to maximize power output during periods of high electrical demand and then store power when either demand is low or renewable generation reduces power prices. The techno-economics of a low-carbon hybrid SOFC and CAES system was developed and investigated in the present study. The proposed hybrid system was found to be cost-competitive with other power-generating base-load facilities when power availability was considered. The hybrid system shows increased resilience to changes in a high VRE grid market scenario.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Effects of Media Nutrient Variation on Microalgae Productivity and Economics During Semi-Continuous Cultivation

The development of large-scale microalgae growth for biofuel production is currently limited by the cost of biomass production. However, new approaches to infrastructure and cultivation practices are bringing the field closer to realization. Macronutrients in the cultivation media contribute significant costs, especially since their concentrations have not been optimized for specific strains and conditions. Environmental photobioreactors (ePBRs) were used to simulate cultivation under outdoor conditions, during which the nitrogen and phosphorus levels in the media were varied. The growth of two potential biofuel production strains, Picochlorum celeri and Tetraselmis striata, with varying nutrient inputs during summer and winter scripts, respectively, was studied. This study demonstrated that nitrogen and phosphorus in f/2 media could be reduced by more than 60% from the standard formulation, while maintaining growth rates in a semi-continuous harvesting approach. Experiments comparing the standard and reduced nutrient input concentrations were also conducted for both species in 820 L outdoor raceway ponds, in Mesa, AZ. P. celeri grown in these ponds in October had a growth rate of 10.6 ± 0.7 g/m 2 /day and 10.6 ± 0.3 g/m 2 /day for the standard and low-nutrient P. celeri ponds, respectively. T. striata grown in April–May had a growth rate of 16.6 ± 1.4 g/m 2 /day for the standard nutrient input ponds and 17.4 ± 1.1 g/m 2 /day for the low-nutrient input ponds, and in October 14.5 ± 0.6 g/m 2 /day for standard nutrient ponds and 14.4 ± 0.6 g/m 2 /day for low-nutrient ponds. These outdoor data therefore confirmed the indoor ePBR data. Techno-economic analysis shows that, if high growth rates can be attained at lower nutrient concentrations, a reduction of at least 60% in nutrient costs can be achieved. Such results highlight the importance of managing macronutrient media inputs, as these have a considerable contribution to biomass production costs in large-scale facilities. The analysis also points to the importance of maintaining high spent medium recycling rates in an industrial deployment, so as to minimize the losses of nitrogen and phosphorus compounds.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Assessment of Economic Viability of Direct Current Fast Charging Infrastructure Investments for Electric Vehicles in the United States

As the global transportation sector increasingly adopts electric vehicles, the demand for advanced and accessible charging infrastructure is rising. In addition to at-home electric vehicle (EV) charging, there is a growing need for the swift development of commercial direct current fast charging (DCFC) stations to meet on-the-go EV charging demands. While government funds are available to support the expansion of the EV charging network in the United States, the establishment of a robust nationwide EV charging infrastructure requires significant private sector investment. This study was conducted to assess the economic feasibility of various business models for fast charging stations in the U.S. using two case studies and exploring different operational strategies including sole ownership and collaborative ventures with public and private entities. The results indicate that based on the current adoption and utilization rates in the U.S., the business model involving an owner-operator collaborating with a public partner ensures profitability and protects the investment in DCFC stations from financial losses. The study also highlights that demand charges and electricity retail prices are the factors that affect the profitability of a DCFC station.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Techno-Economic Modelling with H2A and H2FAST

This presentation introduces audience to techno-economic modelling using the H2A and H2FAST models. ARPA-E will use these models for evaluating technologies producing hydrogen and solid carbon. Solid carbon would be produced in a form suitable for construction materials such as high strength concrete.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Analyzing the Economic and Technical Potential of H2@Scale

H2@Scale is one of EERE's flagship initiatives to enable clean and affordable hydrogen production, storage, distribution, and utilization across multiple sectors in the economy. The January H2IQ hour will discuss results from a recent multi-laboratory analysis report quantifying the technical and economic potential of H2@Scale, given the use of hydrogen as an energy intermediate to integrate sectors in the U.S. energy system. Mark Ruth of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, the lead author of the report, will discuss specific examples of the role hydrogen can play in industry and transportation sectors, such as steelmaking, synthetic fuels, and blending into natural gas pipelines. He will also explain how hydrogen production can be integrated with the electric grid to monetize low-cost energy and incentivize growth in renewable energy supply. The H2IQ Hour will dive into estimates for future hydrogen consumption in current and emerging sectors, given R&D advances and varying prices of natural gas and electricity.

39 EE - Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies (EE-3F↗

A Comparative Techno-Economic Analysis of Sustainable Methanol Synthesis Pathways from Biomass and CO2

The call to reduce global CO2 emissions is at the forefront of research and development in the transportation and petrochemical industries. A potential solution which intersects both sectors is the adoption and commercialization of more sustainable technologies for methanol production. Currently, methanol is gaining popularity as a possible fuel additive, and as a polymer precursor via established methanol-to-olefins routes which are increasing in capacity and utilization, putting methanol in the spotlight and global methanol production on the rise. At the same time, experimental and computational studies have surged, illuminating a wide array of novel process designs to introduce sustainable methanol into the market. However, with numerous competing pathways identified across a variety of fossil and non-fossil feedstocks, there is a need to harmonize the analyses of these pathways using a consistent techno-economic approach and compare them to current commercial pathways to better understand the benefits or limitations inherent to each technology. In this work we conduct a consistent comparative analysis of three sustainable methanol synthesis pathways versus a commercial baseline, with biomass, CO2, and natural gas as the carbon sources. The three sustainable pathways of interest are biomass gasification to syngas with subsequent catalytic conversion of syngas to methanol, indirect conversion of CO2 to syngas via electrolysis with subsequent catalytic conversion of syngas to methanol, and direct conversion of CO2 to methanol via electrolysis. To elucidate the challenges and opportunities in the path to commercialization of each sustainable pathway, we investigate five key process metrics: production cost, carbon efficiency, carbon intensity, energy efficiency, and technology readiness level (TRL).

biomass↗