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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 559 records · Page 31

Redefining Temperate Forest Responses to Climate and Disturbance in the Eastern United States: New Insights at the Mesoscale

Climate and disturbance alter forest dynamics, from individual trees to biomes and from years to millennia, leaving legacies that vary with local, meso and macroscales. Motivated by recent insights in temperate forests, we argue that temporal and spatial extents equivalent to that of the underlying drivers are necessary to characterize forest dynamics across scales. We focus specifically on characterizing mesoscale forest dynamics because they bridge fine‐scale (local) processes and the continental scale (macrosystems) in ways that are highly relevant for climate change science and ecosystem management. We revisit ecological concepts related to spatial and temporal scales and discuss approaches to gain a better understanding of climate–forest dynamics across scales.

climate↗

Low-CCN concentration air masses over the eastern North Atlantic: Seasonality, meteorology, and drivers

In this paper, a 20 month cloud condensation nucleus concentration (N CCN ) data set from Graciosa Island (39°N, 28°W) in the remote North Atlantic is used to characterize air masses with low cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations. Low-CCN events are defined as 6 h periods with mean N CCN <20 cm -3 (0.1% supersaturation). A total of 47 low-CCN events are identified. Surface, satellite, and reanalysis data are used to explore the meteorological and cloud context for low-CCN air masses. Low-CCN events occur in all seasons, but their frequency was 3 times higher in December–May than during June–November. Composites show that many of the low-CCN events had a common meteorological basis that involves southerly low-level flow and rather low wind speeds at Graciosa. Anomalously low pressure is situated to the west of Graciosa during these events, but back trajectories and lagged SLP composites indicate that low-CCN air masses often originate as cold air outbreaks to the north and west of Graciosa. Finally, low-CCN events were associated with low cloud droplet concentrations (N d ) at Graciosa, but liquid water path (LWP) during low-CCN events was not systematically different from that at other times. Satellite N d and LWP estimates from MODIS collocated with Lagrangian back trajectories show systematically lower N d and higher LWP several days prior to arrival at Graciosa, consistent with the hypothesis that observed low-CCN air masses are often formed by coalescence scavenging in thick warm clouds, often in cold air outbreaks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dispersal of Amur tiger from spatial distribution and genetics within the eastern Changbai mountain of China

Abstract Population dispersal and migration often indicate an expanded habitat and reduced inbreeding probability, and to some extend reflects improvement in the condition of the population. The Amur tiger population in the northern region of the Changbai mountain in China mostly distributes along the Sino–Russian border, next to the population in southwest Primorye in Russia. The successful dispersal westward and transboundary movement are crucial for the persistence of the Amur tiger in this area. This study explored the spatial dispersal of the population, transboundary migration, and the genetic condition of the Amur tiger population within the northern Changbai mountain in China, using occurrence data and fecal samples. Our results from 2003 to 2016 showed that the Amur tiger population in this area was spreading westward at a speed of 12.83 ± 4.41 km every three years. Genetic diversity of the Amur tiger populations in southwest Primorye was slightly different than the population in our study area, and the potential individual migration rate between these two populations was shown to be about 13.04%. Furthermore, the relationships between genetic distances and spatial distances indicated the existence of serious limitations to the dispersal of the Amur tiger in China. This study provided important information about spatial dispersal, transboundary migration, and the genetic diversity of Amur tigers in China, showed the urgent need for Amur tiger habitat restoration, and suggested some important conservation measures, such as corridor construction to eliminate dispersal barriers and joint international conservation to promote trans‐boundary movement.

Ning, Yao↗

Establishing connectivity patterns of eastern oysters ( Crassostrea virginica ) on regional oceanographic scales

Localized depletion of marine and estuarine populations often results from large-scale natural and anthropogenic disturbances (e.g., hurricanes, oil spills) as well as overharvest of fisheries resources. Understanding how such localized depletions may affect populations at larger regional scales requires knowledge of connectivity among local populations within the larger regional landscape or metapopulation. Efforts to restore populations following such decreases require similar knowledge. During the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill, dramatic declines of oysters occurred throughout estuaries west and east of the Mississippi River. We examined trajectories of particles, which were parameterized to mimic oyster larvae, using the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC; https://adcirc.org ) model to evaluate potential connectivity within and among embayments from Western Louisiana to Alabama. Patterns of larval settlement, which we defined as the intersection of a larval particle with known or expected oyster habitat at any point 13–21 days post-release, reflected much greater local contributions, with 50%–90% of settled particles originating within the same subdivision of embayments. Exchange among subdivision was much less (0%–40%) and settlement originating from outside the embayment of release was trivial under most scenarios (0%–14%). Connectivity between adjacent basins was greatest for larvae released in the southern portions of the embayment, whereas connectivity among nonadjacent basins was not predicted under the scenarios modeled. Because most local populations are relatively isolated on ecological timescales, areas suffering from extensive local depletion are likely to require extensive time to recover due to the lack of larval subsidy from the overall regional population. Restoration would require building stepping-stone populations or reefs within and among basin to restore a high degree of connectivity.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Cloud optical and microphysical properties derived from ground-based and satellite sensors over a site in the Yangtze Delta region: CLOUD PROPERTIES IN EASTERN CHINA

Comprehensive surface - based retrievals of cloud optical and microphysical properties were made at Taihu, a highly polluted site in central Yangtze Delta region, during a research campaign from May 2008 to December 2009. C loud optical depth (COD) , effective radius (R e ) and liquid water path (LWP) were retrieved from measurements made with a suite of ground - based and space - borne instruments, including an Analytical Spectral Devices (ASD) spectroradiometer , a Multi - Filter Rotating Shadowband R adiometer (MFRSR) , a Multichannel Microwave Radiometer Profiler (MWRP), and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer ( MODIS) on Terra and Aqua satellites . Retrievals from zenith radiance measurements capture better the temporal variation of cloud properties than do retrievals from hemispherical fluxes . Annual mean LWP, COD and R e are 115.8 ± 90.8 g/m 2 , 28.5 ± 19.2, and 6.9 ± 4.2 μ m . Over 90% of LWP is less than 250 g/m 2 . Most of COD (>90%) fall s between 5 and 60 and ~ 80% of R e is less than 10 μ m . Maximum ( minimum ) values of LWP and R e occur in summer ( winter ); COD is highest in winter and spring. R aining and non - raining clouds have significant difference s in LWP, COD and R e . R ainfall frequency i s best correlated with LWP, followed by COD and R e . Cloud properties retrieved from multiple ground - based instruments are also compared with those from satellite retrievals. On average, relative to surface retrievals, mean differences of satellite retrievals in cloud LWP, COD and R e were - 33.6 g/m 2 ( - 26.4%), - 5.8 ( - 31.4%), and 2.9 μ m (29.3% ) for 11 MODIS - Terra overpasses , and - 43.3 g/m 2 ( - 2 2.3 %), - 3.0 ( - 10.0 %) and - 1.3 μ m ( - 12.0 %) for 8 MODIS - Aqua 40 overpasses, respectively. These discrep ancies indicate that MODIS cloud products still suffer 41 from large uncertainties in this region

Liu, Jianjun↗

Temporal variations of methane concentration and isotopic composition in groundwater of the St. Lawrence Lowlands, eastern Canada

Dissolved methane concentrations in shallow groundwater are known to vary both spatially and temporally. The extent of these variations is poorly documented although this knowledge is critical for distinguishing natural fluctuations from anthropogenic impacts stemming from oil and gas activities. This issue was addressed as part of a groundwater research project aiming to assess the risk of shale gas development for groundwater quality over a 500-km{sup 2} area in the St. Lawrence Lowlands (Quebec, Canada). A specific study was carried out to define the natural variability of methane concentrations and carbon and hydrogen isotope ratios in groundwater, as dissolved methane is naturally ubiquitous in aquifers of this area. Monitoring was carried out over a period of up to 2.5 years in seven monitoring wells. Results showed that for a given well, using the same sampling depth and technique, methane concentrations can vary over time from 2.5 to 6 times relative to the lowest recorded value. Methane isotopic composition, which is a useful tool to distinguish gas origin, was found to be stable for most wells, but varied significantly over time in the two wells where methane concentrations are the lowest. The use of concentration ratios, as well as isotopic composition of methane and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), helped unravel the processes responsible for these variations. This study indicates that both methane concentrations and isotopic composition, as well as DIC isotopes, should be regularly monitored over at least 1 year to establish their potential natural variations prior to hydrocarbon development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Direct health-care cost of head and neck cancers: a population-based study in north-eastern Italy

Improvements in prognosis of head-and-neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) have paralleled with an increase in health-care costs, so that an economic evaluation is of growing importance. Presently, most of the evidence is from insurance-based studies in the USA. Between 2007 and 2010, 879 HNSCC patients were identified through the population-based cancer registry of the Friuli Venezia Giulia region, including 266 oral, 187 oropharyngeal, 136 hypopharyngeal, and 290 laryngeal cancers. Health-care costs from diagnosis to treatment initiation and in the following 2 years were retrieved through a record linkage with the regional health data warehouse. This database collected comprehensive health information on all resident citizens. Generalized linear models with a gamma distribution and log-link function were applied to model costs. The average health-care cost from diagnosis up to 2 years after treatment initiation was €20,184 (95% confidence interval: €19,634 − 20,733). Heterogeneity emerged according to cancer site, elective treatment, and retreatment for cancer persistence/recurrence (no: €13,896; yes: €24,599; p < 0.001). An advanced stage was associated with increased costs stage (I: €12,969; II: €18,276; III: €26,229; IV: €25,574; p < 0.001) as the result of treatment complexity and elevated frequency of patients retreatment due to recurrence. These findings further support strategies to diagnose patients at an earlier cancer stage and the accurate definition of diagnostic and treatment pathways, to start treating patients when radical unimodal approach is still feasible. Besides the advantage in prognosis due to timely curative treatments, this would reduce the economic burden of cancer treatment.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Emergency department overcrowding and its associated factors at HARME medical emergency center in Eastern Ethiopia

Introduction: Emergency department (ED) overcrowding has become a significant concern as it can lead to compromised patient care in emergency settings. Various tools have been used to evaluate overcrowding in ED. However, there is a lack of data regarding this issue in resource-limited countries, including Ethiopia. This study aimed to validate NEDOCS, assess level of ED overcrowding and identify associated factors at HARME Medical Emergency Center, located in Hiwot Fana Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Harar, Ethiopia. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted at the HARME Medical Emergency Center, Hiwot Fana Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, involving a total of 899 patients during 120 sampling intervals. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) was calculated to evaluate the agreement between objective and subjective assessments of ED overcrowding. A multivariable logistic regression analysis was employed to identify factors associated with ED overcrowding and statistically significant association was declared using 95% confidence level and a p-value < 0.05. Results: The interrater agreement showed a strong correlation with a Cohen's kappa (κ) of 0.80. The National Emergency Department Overcrowding Study Score demonstrated a strong association with subjective assessments from residents and case team nurses, with an AUC of 0.81 and 0.79, respectively. According to residents' perceptions, ED were considered overcrowded 65.8% of the time. Factors significantly associated with ED overcrowding included waiting time for triage (AOR: 2.24; 95% CI: 1.54–3.27), working time (AOR: 2.23; 95% CI: 1.52–3.26), length of stay (AOR: 2.40; 95% CI: 1.27–4.54), saturation level (AOR: 2.35; 95% CI: 1.31–4.20), chronic illness (AOR: 2.19; 95% CI: 1.37–3.53), and abnormal pulse rate (AOR: 1.52; 95% CI: 1.06–2.16). Conclusion: The study revealed that ED were overcrowded approximately two-thirds of the time.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Modeling the impact of extreme summer drought on conventional and renewable generation capacity: Methods and a case study on the Eastern U.S. power system

Across recent years, there has been a growing prevalence of extreme weather events throughout the United States, posing significant challenges to the reliable and resilient operation of power systems. Specifically, summer droughts threaten to severely reduce available generation capacity to meet regional electricity demand, potentially leading to power outages. This underscores the importance of accurate resource adequacy (RA) assessment to ensure the reliable operation of the nation’s energy infrastructure. Accurately evaluating the usable capacity of regional generation fleets is a challenging undertaking due to the intricate interactions between power systems and hydro-climatic systems. Here, this paper proposes a systematic and analytical framework to evaluate the impacts of extreme summer drought events on the available capacity of various generating technologies, incorporating both meteorological and hydrologic factors. The framework provides detailed plant-level capacity derating models for hydroelectric, thermoelectric, and renewable power plants, facilitating evaluations with high temporal and spatial resolution. The application of the proposed impact assessment framework to the 2025 generation fleet of the real-world power system within the PJM and SERC regions of the United States yields insightful results. By analyzing the daily usable capacity of 6,055 at-risk generators across the study region, it shows that the summer capacity deration is most significant for hydroelectric and once-through thermal power plants, followed by recirculating thermal power plants and combustion turbines. In the event of the recurrence of the 2007 southeastern summer drought event in the near future, the generation fleet could experience a substantial reduction in available capacity, estimated at approximately 8.5 GW, compared to typical summer conditions. The sensitivity analysis reveals that the usable capacity of the generation fleet would suffer an even more significant decrease under conditions of increasingly severe summer droughts. The proposed approach and the findings of this study provide valuable methodologies and insights, empowering stakeholders to bolster the resilience of power systems against the potentially devastating effects of future extreme drought events.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗