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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Application of machine learning for optical emission spectroscopy data in NAGDIS-II

In this study, we applied machine learning to optical emission spectroscopy (OES) data and device parameters from the linear plasma device NAGDIS-II to explore the potential application of machine learning for predicting electron density, $n$ e , and temperature, $T$ e . The covered ranges of $n$ e and $T$ e , which were measured by an electrostatic probe, are 3.6 × 10 17 –2.4 × 10 19 m -3 and 0.3–7.1 eV, respectively. A three hidden layer neural network (NN) is introduced to model the relationship between $n$ e /$T$ e and the combination of line intensities, radial position, and device parameters. It is shown that the errors in $n$ e and $T$ e become 18.0 and 18.8%, respectively, which were almost the same level for the electrostatic probe, using all available data. Lasso regression and greedy algorithm are used to select the necessary line emissions. In conclusion, it is shown that four- or five-line intensities are sufficient to obtain almost the same quality as the one with all the other lines.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Ab initio Molecular Dynamics Assessment of Thermodynamic and Transport Properties in (K,Li)Cl and (K, Na)Cl Molten Salt Mixtures

Molten salt mixtures are integral part of highly important technological applications such as nuclear reactors. However, due to inherent difficulties associated with experiment at high temperatures and the intrinsic complexity of liquid-phase multi-component systems, understanding their properties at a molecular level remains a challenge. Here, we report on an ab initio molecular dynamics investigation on structural, electronic, transport, and thermal properties of two common molten salt mixtures, (K, Li)Cl and (K,Na)Cl, at five different compositions and three temperatures. Most of the properties were found to depend on both composition and temperature. While properties, like atomic charges, show additive behaviors, other properties, such as electrical conductivity, show considerable deviations from additivity. We shall show that the mixing of the molten salt mixtures is mainly driven by entropy, and that the KCl and LiCl mix better than KCl and NaCl. Our computational results are in general consistent with available experimental data. Comparison with available theoretical data is also provided.

Nguyen, Manh Thuong↗
DOE OSTI2024

Central Asia Seismic Hazard Assessment (CASHA): A Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHA) underpin the calculation of earthquake loads in most building codes around the world. In Central Asia, the building codes are slowly being updated to incorporate some of the contemporary concepts of seismic hazard representation. There is also a regional desire to coordinate hazard assessments and building code modernization. However, some challenges remain. Expertise in the region related to seismic hazard assessments is still largely compartmentalised, requiring a significant amount of training and capacity building in seismic hazard assessment related topics. In addition, there are vast amounts of seismic data (bulletin and waveforms), both from analogue and digital eras, that the region’s countries stored but until recently did not use or share among themselves or with the broader seismological community around the world. Finally, after the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s, many of the countries’ seismic networks suffered a major setback with the lack of attention and budget to update existing equipment and installation of new instruments. In order to address these issues, the United States Department of Energy through Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) initiated a project in 2016 to engage and train local scientists in Central Asia to install new equipment, to enhance the quality of seismic monitoring and reporting, to improve and harmonise the regional earthquake catalogue, and to conduct national probabilistic seismic hazard assessments using the new and improved datasets. To achieve the seismic hazard assessment related goals, a series of workshops were held in Almaty, Kazakhstan; Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan; and Dushanbe, Tajikistan from 2016 until 2020. During the time that the COVID-19 pandemic restricted travel, workshops continued online (22 online workshops were hosted in two years). Finally, in May 2022, an in-person workshop in Istanbul, Turkey brought together all project participants along with civil engineers engaged with building code activities in their respective countries, providing a platform to discuss the implementation of the hazard models into updates of building codes in each country, as well as to discuss model parameters, sensitivity analyses and model results in terms of hazard maps, uniform hazard spectra and hazard deaggregations. The workshops were a combination of lectures and hands-on exercises, and included international participation as well as local scientists and engineers. The workshops served several purposes, including training, coordination of data collection, interactions between local earth scientists and engineers, and brainstorming and knowledge exchange among local and international experts. This report outlines the new earthquake catalogue compilation effort and the PSHA project undertaken in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Kazakhstan as part of this initiative. The southern part of this region is tectonically active with moderate to high levels of both shallow crustal seismic activity and occurrence of deeper earthquakes under the Hindu Kush and Pamir mountain ranges. Deeper earthquakes also occur near southwestern Kazakhstan, under the eastern Greater Caucasus and Caspian Sea. Large portions of central and northern Kazakhstan, on the other hand, are in stable continental regions with low levels of seismic activity. This study systematically compiles and improves all available data on local seismicity, active faults, and ground motion attenuation characteristics of the region; and builds a framework to enable a contemporary PSHA to be carried out with the engagement of local scientists. While the project was regional, the seismic hazard assessments are primarily driven by the countries’ own national preferences and understanding of data collection, interpretation, and validation of results.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Queued Up: 2025 Edition – Characteristics of Power Plants Seeking Transmission Interconnection As of the End of 2024 [Slides]

Electric transmission system operators (ISOs, RTOs, or utilities) require proposed power plants seeking to connect to the transmission grid to undergo a series of impact studies before they can be built. This process establishes what new transmission equipment or upgrades may be needed before a project can connect to the system and assigns the costs of that equipment. The lists of projects in this process are known as “interconnection queues”. In collaboration with interconnection.fyi, Berkeley Lab compiled, aggregated, and cleaned interconnection queue data from >50 transmission grid operators (7 ISO/RTOs and 49 non-ISO balancing areas), which collectively represent ~97% of currently installed U.S. electric generating capacity. The dataset includes requests submitted to queues through the end of 2024, and only includes requests seeking to connect to the transmission grid (not distribution-connected or behind-the-meter projects). The files below include both a PDF report and an Excel data file. The PDF report analyzes interconnection data and metrics through the end of 2024. The Excel data file includes (a) the full project-level interconnection queue dataset through 2024, (b) a codebook (data dictionary) describing each data field, and (c) 35 additional tabs featuring tables summarizing a range of interconnection metrics. Key highlights from the Queued Up: 2025 Edition (featuring data through 2024) include: • As of the end of 2024, there were ~10,300 projects actively seeking grid interconnection in the U.S., representing 1,400 GW of generation and approximately 890 GW of storage. • Historic withdrawal rates alongside relatively fewer new requests resulted in a 12% decrease in total active queue volume compared to the prior year. • Active natural gas capacity (136 GW, +72% year-over-year) increased in 2024, while solar (956 GW, -12%), storage (890 GW, -13%), and wind (271 GW, -26%) capacity decreased. • 408 GW of capacity already has a draft or executed interconnection agreement (IA) but has not yet reached commercial operations. • The time projects spend in queues before reaching COD is increasing. For the regions with available data, the median duration from IR to COD has doubled from <2 years for projects built in 2000-2007 to over 4 years for those built in 2018-2024. • Ultimately, most of this proposed capacity will not be built. Only 13% of capacity that submitted interconnection requests from 2000-2019 had reached commercial operations by the end of 2024; 77% of that capacity had been withdrawn and 10% was still active. • FERC Order 2023 and various other reforms are being implemented. These are important measures to reduce interconnection bottlenecks and enhance grid system reliability, but it is too early to measure and assess their full impact. • New additions for the 2025 edition include: (a) additional detail on data processing and gaps; (b) updates on interconnection reforms; (c) new analysis on interconnection agreements, and more.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Ocean Variability Beneath the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf Inferred From Basal Melt Rate Time Series

Fourteen phase-sensitive radars (ApRES) were deployed on the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf (FRIS) to measure variability in its basal melt rate. Melt rates from sites along the Ronne Depression vary seasonally, consistent with the dynamics of the propagation of seasonal dense water from the western ice front into the cavity. Several sites at the back of the FRIS cavity feature a signal with two seasonal maxima. Sub-ice shelf oceanographic data available from one of the sites indicate that this signal is caused by two different pathways followed by the same source water. Inter-annual variability is strongest along a direct flow pathway between western Ronne Ice Front and western Berkner Island. Highest melting occurred in 1999 and 2018, following anomalously low summer sea-ice concentrations in front of the ice shelf. Inter-annual melt rate variability at the back of the FRIS cavity is limited. If present, it is expressed as a suppression or delay in the arrival of the seasonal melt rate minimum, which can be understood in terms of inter-annual stratification changes and variable inflow pathways toward the sites. Long term mean ApRES melt rates agree with estimates from satellite data over eastern FRIS. However, the satellite estimates overstate the area of active basal freezing in the western part of the ice shelf. Furthermore, the temporal melt rate variability from the satellite estimates exaggerates the range of variability at both seasonal and inter-annual time scales with any correspondence between the in-situ and remotely derived inter-annual variability being limited to a single site.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Exposing the inadequacy of redox formalisms by resolving redox inequivalence within isovalent clusters

Here we examine a family of trinuclear iron complexes by multiple-wavelength, anomalous diffraction (MAD) to explore the redox load distribution within cluster materials by the free refinement of atomic scattering factors. Several effects were explored that can impact atomic scattering factors within clusters, including 1) metal atom primary coordination sphere, 2) M–M bonding, and 3) redox delocalization in formally mixed-valent species. Complexes were investigated which vary from highly symmetric to fully asymmetric by 57 Fe Mössbauer and X-ray diffraction to explore the relationship between MAD-derived data and the data available from these widely used characterization techniques. The compounds examined include the all-ferrous clusters [ n Bu 4 N][( tbs L)Fe 3 (μ 3 –Cl)] (1) ([ tbs L] 6– = [1,3,5-C 6 H 9 (NC 6 H 4 -o-NSi t BuMe 2 ) 3 ] 6– ]), ( tbs L)Fe 3 (py) (2), [K(C 222 )] 2 [( tbs L)Fe 3 (μ 3 –NPh)] (4) (C 222 = 2,2,2-cryptand), and the mixed-valent ( tbs L)Fe 3 (μ 3 –NPh) (3). Redox delocalization in mixed-valent 3 was explored with cyclic voltammetry (CV), zero-field 57 Fe Mössbauer, near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy, and X-ray crystallography techniques. We find that the MAD results show an excellent correspondence to 57 Fe Mössbauer data; yet also can distinguish between subtle changes in local coordination geometries where Mössbauer cannot. Differences within aggregate oxidation levels are evident by systematic shifts of scattering factor envelopes to increasingly higher energies. However, distinguishing local oxidation levels in iso- or mixed-valent materials can be dramatically obscured by the degree of covalent intracore bonding. MAD-derived atomic scattering factor data emphasize in-edge features that are often difficult to analyze by X-ray absorption near edge spectroscopy (XANES). Thus, relative oxidation levels within the cluster were most reliably ascertained from comparing the entire envelope of the atomic scattering factor data.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2019

Learning Interactions in Complex Biological Systems

In this project, we developed novel methods for integrating simulation and data-driven methods to accelerate biomedical discovery. In particular, we exploit agent-based models of disease processes and deep reinforcement learning to identify potential novel multi-drug, patient-specific, and adaptive therapeutic strategies. We use the Innate Immune Response agent-based model (IIRABM) to model sepsis as a demonstration of our approach. We first calibrate the agent-based model using novel stochastic optimization algorithms develop in this project, then use the calibrated model to identify optimal cytokine mediation strategies using deep reinforcement learning (DRL). The learned policy achieves a dramatic reduction in mortality over a set of 500 simulated patients relative to standalone antibiotic therapy. Advantages of our approach are three-fold: 1) the use of simulation allows exploring therapeutic strategies beyond clinical practice and available data, 2) advances in DRL accommodate learning complex therapeutic strategies for complex biological systems, and 3) optimized treatments respond to a patient’s individual disease progression over time, therefore capturing both differences across patients and the inherent randomness of disease progression within a single patient. We hope that this work motivates both considering adaptive, personalized multi-cytokine mediation therapy for sepsis and exploiting simulation with DRL for precision medicine more broadly.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Acute stress reduces population-level metabolic and proteomic variation

Abstract Background Variation in omics data due to intrinsic biological stochasticity is often viewed as a challenging and undesirable feature of complex systems analyses. In fact, numerous statistical methods are utilized to minimize the variation among biological replicates. Results We demonstrate that the common statistics relative standard deviation (RSD) and coefficient of variation (CV), which are often used for quality control or part of a larger pipeline in omics analyses, can also be used as a metric of a physiological stress response. Using an approach we term Replicate Variation Analysis (RVA), we demonstrate that acute physiological stress leads to feature-wide canalization of CV profiles of metabolomes and proteomes across biological replicates. Canalization is the repression of variation between replicates, which increases phenotypic similarity. Multiple in-house mass spectrometry omics datasets in addition to publicly available data were analyzed to assess changes in CV profiles in plants, animals, and microorganisms. In addition, proteomics data sets were evaluated utilizing RVA to identify functionality of reduced CV proteins. Conclusions RVA provides a foundation for understanding omics level shifts that occur in response to cellular stress. This approach to data analysis helps characterize stress response and recovery, and could be deployed to detect populations under stress, monitor health status, and conduct environmental monitoring.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

LArQL: A phenomenological model for treating light and charge generation in liquid argon

Experimental data shows that both ionization charge and scintillation light in LAr depend on the deposited energy density ($dE/dx$) and electric field ($\mathcal{E}$). Moreover, free ionization charge and scintillation light are anticorrelated, complementary at a given ($dE/dx$, $\mathcal{E}$) pair. We present LArQL, a phenomenological model that provides the anticorrelation between light and charge and its dependence on the deposited energy as well as on the electric field applied. It modifies the Birks' charge model considering the contribution from the escape electrons at null and low electric fields, and reconciles with Birks' model prediction at higher fields. Deviations from current Birks' model are observed for LArTPCs operating at low $\mathcal{E}$ and for heavily ionizing particles. The LArQL model presents a satisfactory description at $dE/dx$ and field ranges for interacting particles in LArTPCs and fits well the available data. Improvements via data sets compilation and global fits are also interesting features of the model.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian event categorization matrix approach for explosion monitoring

Current efforts to correctly categorize natural events from suspected explosion sources with data that is collected by ground- or space-based sensors presents historical challenges that remain unaddressed by the Event Categorization Matrix (ECM) model. Smaller historical events (lower yield explosions) may have data available from fewer measurement techniques than are available today, and therefore, a historical event record can lack a complete set of discriminants. The covariance structures can also differ between such observations of event (source-type) categories. Both obstacles are problematic for the classic ECM model. Our work addresses this gap and presents a Bayesian update to the previous ECM model, termed the Bayesian Event Categorization Matrix model, which can be trained on partial observations and does not rely on a pooled covariance structure. We further augment the ECM model with Bayesian Decision Theory so that false negative or false positive rates of an event categorization can be reduced in an intuitive manner. To demonstrate improved categorization rates for the Bayesian Event Categorization Matrix model, we compare an array of Bayesian and classic models with multiple performance metrics using Monte Carlo experiments. We use both synthetic and real data. Our Bayesian models show consistent gains in overall accuracy and lower false negative rates relative to the classic ECM model. Here, we propose future avenues to improve Bayesian Event Categorization Matrix models’ decision making and predictive capability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A physics-informed multi-agents model to predict thermo-oxidative/hydrolytic aging of elastomers

This paper introduces a novel physics-informed multi-agents constitutive model to propose prediction in quasi-static constitutive behavior of cross-linked elastomer and the loss of mechanical performance during environmental aging. The presented model is used to simulate the effect of single-mechanism chemical aging (i.e. thermal-inducedor hydrolytic aging) on the behavior of the material in this hybrid framework. Those environmental single-mechanism damages change the polymer matrix over time due to massive chain scission, chain formations, and changing the arrangement of molecules in the polymer matrix. Here we propose a data-driven super-constrained machine-learned engine to represent damage in the polymer matrix and capture the changes in material behavior, including its inelastic features such as Mullins effect and permanent set in the course of aging. We have simplified the 3D stress–strain tensor mapping problem into a small number of super-constrained 1D mapping problems by means of a sequential order reduction. An assembly of multiple replicated conditional neural-network learning-agents (L-agents) is trained to systematically simplify the high-dimensional mapping problem into multiple 1D problems, each represented by a different type of agent. Our hybrid framework is designed to capture the effect of deformation history, aging time, and aging temperature. The model is validated with respect to a comprehensive set of experiments specifically designed to benchmark model capabilities and also against available data in the literature. Thermodynamic consistency and frame independency have been verified. Besides acceptable predictive abilities, a significant reduction of computational cost to predict behavior at multiple states of deformation is the most significant feature of this model.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Deciphering Degradation: Machine Learning on Real-World Performance Data

The solar investment community is in need of up-to-date and data-derived system degradation rates to use in financial models that calculate the risk and expectation of energy revenue. To date, financial models choose degradation rates from past studies that are limited and may not be representative of solar projects in development today. As the solar industry expands in all sectors (residential, commercial, and utility), there is a growing amount of energy generation data available to analyze. With the help of the open source degradation analysis code (RdTools) it is now possible to derive degradation on an ongoing basis and continuously provide up-to-date durability statistics to the investment community. Ongoing and accurate statistics of fielded photovoltaic systems allows financial stakeholders to constrain energy revenue projections, lower financial risk, and increase the bankability of solar. This presentation will provide a mid-term progress update on a 2 year SETO-funded degradation project that involves applying RdTools analysis on kWh Analytics’ industry database. With results from the RdTools analysis in hand, machine learning methods are employed to quantify how much variance of system performance degradation can be explained by predictor variables such as environmental factors, equipment bill of materials characteristics, and system design information. The goal of this presentation is to promote the usage of RdTools on an ongoing to data owners and to solicit feedback from researchers and stakeholders on how to maximize impact of the SETO-funded kWh Analytics degradation project.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Diversity of Sordariales Fungi: Identification of Seven New Species of Naviculisporaceae Through Morphological Analyses and Genome Sequencing

Thanks to next-generation sequencing (NGS) technologies, the diversity of fungi can now be investigated through the analysis of their genome sequences. Naviculisporaceae is a family within the Sordariales, whose diversity is not well-known, with only one genome sequence published for this family. Here, we report on the isolation and cultivation of 20 new strains of Naviculisporaceae. Their genome sequences, as well as those of the five commercially available strains, were determined, thus providing complete genome sequences for 25 new Naviculisporaceae strains. Species delimitation was conducted using a combination of (1) ITS + LSU phylogenetic analysis of the new isolates along with other known species of the family, (2) comparisons between DNA barcode sequences of the new strains with those of the known species, and (3) average genome-wide nucleotide identity calculation. We built a phylogenomic tree and studied the organization of the mating-type locus. In vitro fruiting was obtained for 16 strains, enabling the definition of seven new species, namely Pseudorhypophila gallica, Pseudorhypophila guyanensis Rhypophila alpibus, Rhypophila brasiliensis, Rhypophila camarguensis, Rhypophila reunionensis and Rhypophila thailandica, as well as two new combinations, namely Pseudorhypophila latipes and Pseudorhypophila oryzae. Eight strains for which in vitro fruiting was not obtained may belong to additional new species. These results expand the known diversity of the Naviculisporaceae and greatly enlarge the genomic data available for the family.

Naviculisporaceae↗
DOE OSTI2020

Retrospective on Recent DOE-Funded Studies Concerning the Extraction of Rare Earth Elements & Lithium from Geothermal Brines (Final Report)

Rare earth elements (REE) and lithium are non-toxic metals that are considered critical materials due to their use in electronics, magnets, batteries, and a wide variety of industrial processes important for the economy and military preparedness. Demand for REE and lithium is increasing and these critical materials are imported, so identifying and exploiting domestic sources of REE and lithium is a national priority. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) has been in the forefront of sponsoring research investigating the potential recovery of REE, lithium, and other critical minerals from geothermal brines. It has been proposed that the future of geothermal energy should include “hybrid systems” that combine electricity generation with other revenue-generating activities, such as recovery of valuable and critical minerals, including REE and lithium. Two recent GTO funding opportunities have focused on the recovery of REE and other valuable minerals from geothermal brines. The research supported by the GTO’s mineral recovery program is focused on three areas: resource characterization, technology for the extraction of REE, and technology for the extraction of lithium (Tables 1 and 2). This report is a retrospective study examining the outcome of GTO’s two recent mineral recovery programs (DE-FOA-0001016 in FY 2014 and DE-FOA-0001376 in FY 2016). In this report, the knowledge, technology, and techniques that were developed by researchers funded by GTO are summarized and discussed. Four projects were funded to assess the concentrations and amounts of REE found in geothermal brines and oil field produced waters. The GTO-funded studies compiled publically available data on REE concentrations from brines and produced water from all over the USA. In addition, new samples were collected and characterized from major geothermal and hydrocarbon basins in the Western USA. The studies examined the relationship between lithology and REE concentrations and developed models examining the influence of geology on REE concentrations in produced brines. It was determined that REE are frequently found at higher concentrations in oil field produced water than geothermal brines, but that some geothermal areas had significant REE resources. Significant reservoirs of REE were identified in the Western USA. In some cases, concentrations of REE were more than 1000 times the concentrations found in seawater. Collectively, these studies represent a comprehensive picture of REE resources associated with geothermal and hydrocarbon systems in the USA. The studies did not examine lithium resources, but in some cases, lithium concentration data was collected. Data from these studies are housed in the Geothermal Data Repository (GDR) and represent a significant information resource and it is recommended that these data be further analyzed in a future study. Eight projects were funded to develop new technology for REE extraction from geothermal fluids. These projects investigated sorption as an approach for removal and recovery of REE from geothermal brines. The projects investigated cutting-edge technology for selective sorption of ions from complex solutions, including the application of metal-organic frameworks and biosorbent proteins. The REE sorption studies tested different combinations of metal-binding ligands and solid supports. The most promising metal-binding ligands for REE included phosphonic acid, thiol, and carboxylic acid functional groups. Ligands were attached or incorporated into a wide variety of solid supports. In most cases, attachment was via covalent bonding to organic resins, polymers, or silica-based supports. Most of the REE projects were conducted at a low technology readiness level (TRL) and showed promise, but direct comparison between technologies was not possible based on the available information. It is recommended that testing and reporting be standardized to the extent possible to facilitate comparisons between technologies. Two projects were directed at novel lithium extraction technology. Both projects investigated the use of inorganic sorbents, including manganese oxides. One study also examined the use of metal- ion imprinted polymers as selective ion-exchange resins for the separation of lithium and manganese from brines. Both approaches showed promise for the selective extraction of lithium from brines, including potentially geothermal brines. Results from these GTO studies indicated that selective REE and lithium extraction is possible, but interference from co-occurring solutes, such as calcium, magnesium, or heavy metals, will interfere with process efficiency and negatively impact process economics. Techno-economic analysis conducted as part of the resource and technology studies suggest extraction of REE from geothermal brines is unlikely to be economically viable, especially since non-geothermal produced waters frequently have higher REE concentrations. It is recommended that benchmarks for techno-economic analysis be established to the extent possible for future studies, to facilitate direct comparison of various technologies. Based on the collective results of this program, it appears that hybrid geothermal power would benefit more from recovery of lithium and other metals, rather than REE. It is recommended that future studies be conducted at a higher- TRL and that sorbents be tested against actual geothermal fluid samples. Prior higher-TRL efforts to extract metals from geothermal brines should be further evaluated for lessons learned.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

INTEGRATION OF DATA ANALYTICS WITH SYSTEM HEALTH PROGRAMS

Industry equipment reliability and asset management programs are essential elements that help ensure the safe and economical operation of nuclear power plants. The effectiveness of these programs is addressed in several industry developed and regulatory programs. However, these programs have proven to be labor intensive and expensive. There is an opportunity to significantly enhance the collection, analysis, and use of this information to provide more cost-effective plant operation. Additionally, there is an acute industry need to leverage advanced technology to reduce costs and improve operational effectiveness. The goal of this paper is to provide effective and efficient analytical methods and tools to support risk-informed decisions for the equipment reliability and asset management programs at nuclear power plants. This is accomplished by creating a direct bridge between component health/lifecycle data and decision making (e.g., maintenance scheduling and project prioritization). Here we are supporting typical system engineer decisions regarding maintenance activity scheduling and component ageing management. This is performed in a risk-informed context where herein the term “risk” is broadly constructed to include both plant reliability and economics. This framework combines data analytics tools to analyze equipment reliability data with risk-informed methods designed to support system engineer decisions (e.g., maintenance and replacement schedules, optimal maintenance posture) in a customizable workflow. A challenge is that the structure of this workflow strongly depends on the decision that needs to be made, the type of data available, and the constraints that need to be considered. Current methods are designed to provide specific answers to specific problems; however, these methods might prove to be inadequate even when problem settings slightly change (e.g., different types of requirements, additional dependencies between system reliability and economics). We tackled this challenge by designing framework in a flexible and modular fashion such that the user can assemble and customize his/her own workflow that integrates SSC economic lifecycle models (e.g., maintenance and replacement costs), system reliability models, and optimization methods.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Accuracy of predictions made by machine learned models for biocrude yields obtained from hydrothermal liquefaction of organic wastes

Hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) has potential for converting abundant wet organic wastes into renewable fuels. Because HTL consists of a complex reaction network, deterministic, physics-based prediction of its biocrude yield is prohibitively difficult. Data-driven methods provide an alternative to the physics-based approach; however, rigorous testing must be performed to ensure the accuracy of predictions made by data-driven methods. To this end, a data set was assembled consisting of 570 data points appearing in the open literature. The data set was divided into training, validation, and test sub-sets and used for evaluating different machine learning regression approaches to predict biocrude yield. Among the tested algorithms, Random Forest and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) predicted biocrude yields in a test set that had not been used for training with the greatest accuracy, with root mean square errors (RMSE) of 8.34 and 8.57, respectively. Further refinement of the Random Forest model reduced its RMSE to 8.07. In comparison, predictions of a series of literature models resulted in RMSE ranging from 9.16 in the most accurate case to 27.6 in the least accurate; most literature models yielded RMSE values > 10. Using biocrude yield predictions from the most accurate Random Forest model and a probabilistic economic analysis found that the model accuracy is sufficient to prioritize allocation of resources based on projected minimum fuel selling price. In our report the models and analysis represent a major advance in the ability to use readily available data to predict biocrude yields on new feedstocks that have not previously been studied.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Development of phenomena identification and ranking table for Westinghouse lead fast reactor’s safety

The Westinghouse Lead-cooled Fast Reactor (LFR) is a medium-size, passively safe, economic, Gen-IV nuclear reactor. An important effort within the Westinghouse LFR program is the development of the safety analysis methodology, which comprises computer code development, model development, and experimental testing. A key initial task associated with the development of the safety analysis methodology is the identification of processes and phenomena that affect the plant's capability to meet selected safety performance indicators. This is accomplished through the development of a Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT) for selected accident scenarios which, for this specific PIRT effort, included selected postulated design basis accidents and hypothetical beyond design basis accidents in LFRs. This paper describes the role of PIRT in the development of the Westinghouse LFR safety analysis methodology and the process used in the PIRT development. Specifically, the Westinghouse LFR PIRT assessed importance of pertinent phenomena and identified gaps in their knowledge-base by evaluating current modeling capabilities and data available for validation. The ultimate goal was to provide guidance on computer code development and validation efforts and to prioritize testing to support LFR design and licensing. The key phenomena and processes that are deemed highly important for the safety performance indicators, but for which the state of knowledge is low, are presented. The testing program and analyses development are planned to address significant phenomena in the PIRT.

Lead fast reactor↗
DOE OSTI2020

Oak Ridge National Laboratory Technical Input for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission Review of the 2017 Edition of ASME Section III, Division 5, ‘High Temperature Reactors’

To assist the Nuclear Regulatory Commission in its decision making on endorsement of the American Society for Mechanical Engineers Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code Section III, Division 5 (2017 Edition) for development of advanced non-light water reactors, the following Division 5 portions were reviewed: Article HBB-2000 Material; Article HCB-2000 Material; Article HGB-2000 Material; Mandatory Appendix HBB-I-14 Tables and Figures; and, Nonmandatory Appendix HBB-U Guidelines for Restricted Material Specifications to Improve Performance in Certain Service Applications. In addition to the 2017 Edition, the same parts of the 2019 Edition have also been reviewed as indicated in various sections of the report. This review was conducted by a collaboration of national laboratory and private sector participants with significant industrial experience, including some heavy lifting and deep diving from Clarus Consulting, LLC., all intended to achieve an objective, independent, and practical perspective. The report provides recommendations, descriptions of the evaluation methods, and the source references for the data used. To build confidence required for endorsement of the Code, this review was conducted as a verification and validation of the above Code contents. The objective of verification is to ensure that the Code is free of error – direct or implied; contains the information needed for its use, including proper coverage of the Code-specified materials for the intended application, and completeness and adequacy of references to other portions of the Code. The objective of validation is to authenticate that the Code tabulations and graphs represent design inputs consistent with what are determined using rules and methods specified by the Code. The authentication process used data that were assembled and/or generated independent of Code development, while the methods of analysis followed Code-specified methods where appropriate. The designated portions for this review cover the five alloys codified for high temperature reactor applications in Division 5, i.e. 316 SS, 304 SS, 800H, 2¼Cr-1Mo, and 9Cr-1Mo-V, regarding their general requirements, permitted specifications and design stress intensity values for pressure-retaining applications, deterioration in service, fatigue acceptance test, permissible weld materials, tensile and yield strength, expected minimum stress-to-rupture values (including for Alloy 718), weld stress rupture factors, permissible materials for bolting use, and restricted specifications in certain service applications. Additionally, stress intensity values for bolting materials including 316 SS, 304 SS and alloy 718 were reviewed. Analysis and discussion are also provided on contents outside of these designated Code portions where it was deemed relevant and necessary to develop a technically sound understanding of issues relating to the designated portions. Due to unavailability of sufficient test data on welds during the review period, the weld stress rupture factors in Tables HBB-I-10.14A to E, which cover a total of ten tables for the five alloys welded with twenty-eight different weld metals (some with similar properties), have been deferred to a future review effort. The review identified mainly two types of issues. The first type includes instances where the Code is found factually incomplete or incorrect, such as obsolete materials specifications listings, missing tabulation of stresses for bolting. Changes to the Code are recommended in these cases. The second type of issue includes instances where the Code tabulations and graphs are found to be less conservative than the review analysis results. In these cases, recommendations are made for further review and consideration where the difference in conservatism exceeds 10%, which is our threshold for questioning technical adequacy, meriting a risk assessment by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and/or reactor designers. It is noted that this effort has been executed using all available data and established methods of analysis, including methods and criteria specified and used by the Code. As such, the findings that are presented in quantitative detail, in a format for convenient comparison with the Code, and with identification of where further review is recommended, should provide a sound technical basis for decisions about quantifying the implications of the reduced design margins and technical adequacy/inadequacy to form a basis for conditioning specific Code tabulation values on endorsement. Recommendations for specific changes to the Code, however, entail design conservatism considerations beyond the scope of this review effort, and are not made in this report.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗