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At least 559 records · Page 31
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2012

Late-glacial and Holocene Vegetation and Climate Variability, Including Major Droughts, in the Sky Lakes Region of Southeastern New York State

Sediment cores from Lakes Minnewaska and Mohonk in the Shawangunk Mountains of southeastern New York were analyzed for pollen, plantmacrofossils, macroscopic charcoal, organic carbon content, carbon isotopic composition, carbon/nitrogen ratio, and lithologic changes to determine the vegetation and landscape history of the greater Catskill Mountain region since deglaciation. Pollen stratigraphy generally matches the New England pollen zones identified by Deevey (1939) and Davis (1969), with boreal genera (Picea, Abies) present during the late Pleistocene yielding to a mixed Pinus, Quercus and Tsuga forest in the early Holocene. Lake Minnewaska sediments record the Younger Dryas and possibly the 8.2 cal kyr BP climatic events in pollen and sediment chemistry along with an ~1400 cal yr interval of wet conditions (increasing Tsuga and declining Quercus) centered about 6400 cal yr BP. BothMinnewaska andMohonk reveal a protracted drought interval in themiddle Holocene, ~5700-4100 cal yr BP, during which Pinus rigida colonized the watershed, lake levels fell, and frequent fires led to enhanced hillslope erosion. Together, the records show at least three wet-dry cycles throughout the Holocene and both similarities and differences to climate records in New England and central New York. Drought intervals raise concerns for water resources in the New York City metropolitan area and may reflect a combination of enhanced La Niña, negative phase NAO, and positive phase PNA climatic patterns and/or northward shifts of storm tracks.

Drought↗
NASA NTRS2013

On the Role of SST Forcing in the 2011 and 2012 Extreme U.S. Heat and Drought: A Study in Contrasts

This study compares the extreme heat and drought that developed over the United States in 2011 and 2012 with a focus on the role of SST forcing. Experiments with the NASA GEOS-5 atmospheric general circulation model show that the winter/spring response over the U.S. to the Pacific SST is remarkably similar for the two years despite substantial differences in the tropical Pacific SST. As such, the pronounced winter and early spring temperature differences between the two years (warmth confined to the south in 2011 and covering much of the continent in 2012) primarily reflect differences in the contributions from the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, with both acting to cool the east and upper mid-west during 2011, while during 2012 the Indian Ocean reinforced the Pacific-driven continental-wide warming and the Atlantic played a less important role. During late spring and summer of 2011 the tropical Pacific SST force a continued warming and drying over the southern U.S., though considerably weaker than observed. Nevertheless, the observed anomalies fall within the models intra-ensemble spread. In contrast, the rapid development of intense heat and drying over the central U.S. during June and July of 2012 falls outside the models intra-ensemble spread. The response to the SST (a northward expansion of a modest summer warming linked to the Atlantic) gives little indication that 2012 would produce record-breaking precipitation deficits and heat in the central Great Plains. A diagnosis of the 2012 observed circulation anomalies shows that the most extreme heat and drought was tied to the development of a stationary Rossby wave and an associated anomalous upper tropospheric high maintained by weather transients.

SST Forcing↗
NASA NTRS2014

Benchmarking a Soil Moisture Data Assimilation System for Agricultural Drought Monitoring

Despite considerable interest in the application of land surface data assimilation systems (LDAS) for agricultural drought applications, relatively little is known about the large-scale performance of such systems and, thus, the optimal methodological approach for implementing them. To address this need, this paper evaluates an LDAS for agricultural drought monitoring by benchmarking individual components of the system (i.e., a satellite soil moisture retrieval algorithm, a soil water balance model and a sequential data assimilation filter) against a series of linear models which perform the same function (i.e., have the same basic inputoutput structure) as the full system component. Benchmarking is based on the calculation of the lagged rank cross-correlation between the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and soil moisture estimates acquired for various components of the system. Lagged soil moistureNDVI correlations obtained using individual LDAS components versus their linear analogs reveal the degree to which non-linearities andor complexities contained within each component actually contribute to the performance of the LDAS system as a whole. Here, a particular system based on surface soil moisture retrievals from the Land Parameter Retrieval Model (LPRM), a two-layer Palmer soil water balance model and an Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is benchmarked. Results suggest significant room for improvement in each component of the system.

soil moisture↗
NASA NTRS2014

Groundwater Depletion During Drought Threatens Future Water Security of the Colorado River Basin

Streamflow of the Colorado River Basin is the most overallocated in the world. Recent assessment indicates that demand for this renewable resource will soon outstrip supply, suggesting that limited groundwater reserves will play an increasingly important role in meeting future water needs. Here we analyze 9 years (December 2004 to November 2013) of observations from the NASA Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment mission and find that during this period of sustained drought, groundwater accounted for 50.1 cu km of the total 64.8 cu km of freshwater loss. The rapid rate of depletion of groundwater storage (5.6 +/- 0.4 cu km/yr) far exceeded the rate of depletion of Lake Powell and Lake Mead. Results indicate that groundwater may comprise a far greater fraction of Basin water use than previously recognized, in particular during drought, and that its disappearance may threaten the long-term ability to meet future allocations to the seven Basin states.

water security↗
NASA NTRS2018

Diverging Importance of Drought Stress for Maize and Winter Wheat in Europe

Understanding the drivers of yield levels under climate change is required to support adaptation planning and respond to changing production risks. This study uses an ensemble of crop models applied on a spatial grid to quantify the contributions of various climatic drivers to past yield variability in grain maize and winter wheat of European cropping systems (1984-2009) and drivers of climate change impacts to 2050. Results reveal that for the current genotypes and mix of irrigated and rainfed production, climate change would lead to yield losses for grain maize and gains for winter wheat. Across Europe, on average heat stress does not increase for either crop in rainfed systems, while drought stress intensifies for maize only. In low-yielding years, drought stress persists as the main driver of losses for both crops, with elevated CO2 offering no yield benefit in these years.

Europe↗
NASA NTRS2020

Unprecedented Drought Challenges for Texas Water Resources in a Changing Climate: What Do Researchers and Stakeholders Need to Know?

Long‐range water planning is complicated by factors that are rapidly changing in the 21st century, including climate, population, and water use. Here, we analyze climate factors and drought projections for Texas as an example of a diverse society straddling an aridity gradient to examine how the projections can best serve water stakeholder needs. We find that climate models are robust in projecting drying of summer‐season soil moisture and decreasing reservoir supplies for both the eastern and western portions of Texas during the 21st century. Further, projections indicate drier conditions during the latter half of the 21st century than even the most arid centuries of the last 1,000 years that included megadroughts. To illustrate how accounting for drought non‐stationarity may increase water resiliency, we consider generalized case studies involving four key stakeholder groups: agricultural producers, large surface water suppliers, small groundwater management districts, and regional water planning districts. We also examine an example of customized climate information being used as input to long‐range water planning. We find that while stakeholders value the quantitative capability of climate model outputs, more specific climate‐related information better supports resilience planning across multiple stakeholder groups. New suites of tools could provide necessary capacity for both short and long‐term, stakeholder‐specific adaptive planning.

drought↗
NASA NTRS2021

The 2019-2020 Australian drought and bushfires altered the partitioning of hydrological fluxes

Though coarse in spatial resolution, the nearly all weather measurements from passive microwave sensors can help in improving the spatiotemporal coverage of optical and thermal infrared sensors for monitoring vegetation changes on the land surface. This study demonstrates the use of vegetation optical depth retrievals from the Soil Moisture Active Passive mission for capturing the vegetation alterations from the recent 2019-2020 Australian bushfires and drought. The impact of vegetation disturbance s on terrestrial water budget is examined by assimilating the vegetation optical depth retrievals into a dynamic phenology model. The results demonstrate that assimilating vegetation optical depth observations lead to improved simulation of evapotranspiration, runoff, and soil moisture states. The study also demonstrates that the vegetation changes from the 2019-2020 Australian drought and fires led to significant modifications in the partitioning of evaporative and runoff fluxes, resulting in increased bare soil evaporation, reduced transpiration, and higher runoff.

data assimilation↗
NASA NTRS2023

A Multi-Satellite Framework to Rapidly Evaluate Extreme Biosphere Cascades: The Western US 2021 Drought and Heatwave

The increasing frequency and intensity of climate extremes and complex ecosystem responses motivate the need for integrated observational studies at low-latency to determine biosphere responses and carbon-climate feedbacks. Here, we develop a satellite-based rapid attribution workflow and demonstrate its use at a 1–2-month latency to attribute drivers of the carbon cycle feedbacks during the 2020-2021 Western US drought and heatwave. In the first half of 2021, concurrent negative photosynthesis anomalies and large positive column CO 2 anomalies were detected with satellites. Using a simple atmospheric mass balance approach, we estimate a surface carbon efflux anomaly of 132 TgC in June 2021, a magnitude corroborated 28 independently with a dynamic global vegetation model. Integrated satellite observations of hydrologic processes, representing the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum (SPAC), show that these surface carbon flux anomalies are largely due to substantial reductions in photosynthesis because of a spatially widespread moisture-deficit propagation through the SPAC between 2020 and 2021. A causal model indicates deep soil moisture stores partially drove photosynthesis, maintaining its values in 2020 and driving its declines throughout 2021. The causal model also suggests legacy effects may have amplified photosynthesis deficits in 2021 beyond the direct effects of environmental forcing. The integrated, observation framework presented here provides a valuable first assessment of a biosphere extreme response and an independent testbed for improving drought propagation and mechanisms in models. The rapid identification of extreme carbon anomalies and hotspots can also aid mitigation and adaptation decisions.

Causal model↗
DOE OSTI2014

Observed and modeled ecosystem isoprene fluxes from an oak-dominated temperate forest and the influence of drought stress

Ecosystem fluxes of isoprene emission were measured during the majority of the 2011 growing season at the University of Missouri's Baskett Wildlife Research and Education Area in centralMissouri, USA (38.7° N, 92.2° W). This broadleaf deciduous forest is typical of forests common in theOzarks region of the central United States. The goal of the isoprene flux measurements was to test ourunderstanding of the controls on isoprene emission from the hourly to the seasonal timescale using a state-of-the-art emission model, MEGAN (Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature). Isoprene emission rates were very high from the forest with a maximum of 50.9 mg m-2 hr-1 (208 nmol m-2 s-1), which to our knowledge exceeds all other reports of canopy-scale isoprene emission. The fluxes showed a clear dependence on the previous temperature and light regimes which was successfully captured by the existing algorithms in MEGAN. During a period of drought, MEGAN was unable to reproduce the time-dependent response of isoprene emission to water stress. Overall, the performance of MEGAN was robust and could explain 87% of the observed variance in the measured fluxes, but the response of isoprene emission to drought stress is a major source of uncertainty.

Potosnak, M.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic coevolution of baseflow and multiscale groundwater flow system during prolonged droughts

Field and numerical studies suggest that baseflow is composed of waters from a spectrum of groundwater flow paths termed the Groundwater Flow System (GWFS) – from shallow hillslope contributions to watershed-scale deep circulation originating in headwaters and discharging into lowland rivers. Here, we explore the evolution of the GWFS under prolonged droughts to understand its dynamics and multiscale nature, and to elucidate its role in baseflow generation and recession at the watershed scale. In this work, we consider three drought scenarios of varying severity and simulate groundwater flow in a 2-D cross-section of an idealized watershed with deep permeable bedrock, tracking the evolution of flow paths, baseflow, and residence times during the recession process. We find that baseflow generation at different drainage stages, and within different subwatersheds, is influenced distinctly by flow paths of different scales, depending on the relative strength of the flow paths and the position of the subwatersheds relative to the recharge/discharge zones of the deeper watershed-scale groundwater circulation. Despite having the same local relief, geology, and climate, baseflow from each subwatershed has a distinct recession behavior and time-dependent residence time distribution. Also, the hydraulic and transport characteristics of baseflow generation co-evolve and are strongly affected by the connection state of the water table to subwatersheds. These findings suggest that asynchrony and dissimilarity of baseflow generation from hillslopes under the impact of the watershed-scale groundwater flow, and interactions with local-scale and intermediate-scale groundwater flow, must be taken into account when interpreting baseflow recession data and building conceptual baseflow models at the watershed scale.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Plant wax and carbon isotope response to heat and drought in the conifer Juniperus monosperma

Plant waxes, including n-alkanes, are commonly used for a wide range of paleo-applications. Several common traits of n-alkanes that are used as paleo-proxies include chain length distribution and average chain length (ACL), as well as plant wax carbon and hydrogen isotopic compositions. The effect of climate on plant wax traits has been the subject of many studies, but a common challenge with modern calibrations is disentangling the effects of species (genetic), temperature, and precipitation from one another. Here, in this study, we explore the effect of temperature and drought, independently and combined, on plant wax composition of the species Juniper monosperma in a large ecosystem-scale field manipulation experiment. We find that n-alkane concentrations significantly increase with temperature, but other parameters (including ACL) are not affected. These results support physiological studies that identify n-alkanes as an important barrier to water loss within the plant cuticle. Combined with prior studies, it appears that changes in ACL within sediments are likely controlled by changes in species composition rather than directly by changes in climate. We find little variation in the carbon isotopic composition (δ 13 C) of n-alkanes across the treatments whereas bulk leaf δ 13 C values are higher in the heat and drought treatment. Because leaf δ 13 C values represent a weighted C assimilation signal, these values reflect differences in leaf gas exchange among treatments, whereas the n-alkanes are synthesized when water availability is higher and differences among treatments are not significant enough to influence their values. These results have important implications for using n-alkane traits, including ACL and δ 13 C values, for paleoenvironmental reconstructions.

Compound-specific isotope analysis↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improved Characterization of Soil Organic Matter by Integrating FT-ICR MS, Liquid Chromatography Tandem Mass Spectrometry, and Molecular Networking: A Case Study of Root Litter Decay under Drought Conditions

Understanding of how soil organic matter (SOM) chemistry is altered in a changing climate has advanced considerably; however, most SOM components remain unidentified, impeding the ability to characterize a major fraction of organic matter and predict what types of molecules, and from which sources, will persist in soil. Here we present a novel approach to better characterize SOM extracts by integrating information from three types of analyses, and we deploy this method to characterize decaying root-detritus soil microcosms subjected to either drought or normal conditions. To observe broad differences in composition, we employed direct infusion Fourier-transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (DI-FT-ICR MS). We complemented this with liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) to identify components by library matching. Since libraries contain only a small fraction of SOM components, we also used fragment spectral cosine similarity scores to relate unknowns and library matches through molecular networks. This integrated approach allowed us to corroborate DI-FT-ICR MS molecular formulas using library matches, which included fungal metabolites and related polyphenolic compounds. We also inferred structures of unknowns from molecular networks and improved LC-MS/MS annotation rates from ~5 to 35% by considering DI-FT-ICR MS molecular formula assignments. Under drought conditions, we found greater relative amounts of lignin-like vs condensed aromatic polyphenol formulas and lower average nominal oxidation state of carbon, suggesting reduced decomposition of SOM and/or microbes under stress. Our integrated approach provides a framework for enhanced annotation of SOM components that is more comprehensive than performing individual data analyses in parallel.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2019

Quantifying Disconnection of Groundwater From Managed‐Ephemeral Surface Water During Drought and Conjunctive Agricultural Use

Abstract The physics of disconnection between interrelated surface and groundwater has evolved considerably in recent years, especially since conjunctive use of water resources is increasingly dependent on groundwater resilience, but methods to measure disconnection on a river basin scale are lacking especially for managed‐ephemeral and irrigated‐agricultural systems. Multiyear drought limited surface water along Rincon Valley within the Elephant Butte Irrigation District (EBID) in the arid, Lower Rio Grande Basin of south‐central New Mexico, USA, and effects were compounded by continued extraction of groundwater to meet crop requirements. Average year‐end water table elevations in recent years have been below the average elevation of the riverbed, indicating potential disconnection between the river and the aquifer even when the river flows during the irrigation season. This study analyzed data from EBID groundwater monitoring wells adjacent to the river, infiltration determined from river flows, and riverbed measurements along the Rincon Valley reach to determine net annual seepage discharge to the aquifer and annual average pressure head below the river. Annual assessment from 2010 to 2017 confirmed that the drought shifted the system from connection to transition and then to disconnection. Nonlinear regression was used to quantify this shift to disconnection and back, enabled determination of several disconnection process metrics, and was also used to confirm that nonlinear disconnection behavior was reversible without significant hysteresis. The method developed herein confirms that the total head difference transition threshold can be determined from river/riparian monitoring sites over reach to basin scales.

Fuchs, Erek H.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Causes of Missing Snowmelt Following Drought

Abstract Water management in snowy mountainous regions hinges on forecasting snowmelt runoff. However, droughts are altering snowpack‐runoff relationships with ongoing debate about the driving mechanisms. For example, in 2021 in California, less than half of predicted streamflow arrived. Mechanisms proposed for this “missing” streamflow included changes in evapotranspiration ( ET ), rainfall, and subsurface moisture conditions. Here, we demonstrate that ET in drought years generates dry subsurface conditions that reduce runoff in subsequent years. A model including this legacy of depleted moisture storage reduced median error in 2021 forecasts from 60% to 20% at 15 minimally disturbed basins and from 18% to 2% at 6 water supply basins in the Sierra Nevada (basins range in area from 5 to 23,051 km 2 and mean annual precipitation from 814 to 1,549 mm). Our findings indicate that the relationship between snowpack and runoff will evolve as plant ecosystems respond to climate change and alter subsurface water storage dynamics.

Lapides, Dana A.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Scaling Individual Tree Transpiration With Thermal Cameras Reveals Interspecies Differences to Drought Vulnerability

Abstract Understanding tree transpiration variability is vital for assessing ecosystem water‐use efficiency and forest health amid climate change, yet most landscape‐level measurements do not differentiate individual trees. Using canopy temperature data from thermal cameras, we estimated the transpiration rates of individual trees at Harvard Forest and Niwot Ridge. PT‐JPL model was used to derive latent heat flux from thermal images at the canopy‐level, showing strong agreement with tower measurements ( R 2 = 0.70–0.96 at Niwot, 0.59–0.78 at Harvard at half‐hourly to monthly scales) and daily RMSE of 33.5 W/m 2 (Niwot) and 52.8 W/m 2 (Harvard). Tree‐level analysis revealed species‐specific responses to drought, with lodgepole pine exhibiting greater tolerance than Engelmann spruce at Niwot and red oak showing heightened resistance than red maple at Harvard. These findings show how ecophysiological differences between species result in varying responses to drought and demonstrate that these responses can be characterized by deriving transpiration from crown temperature measurements.

Javadian, Mostafa↗
DOE OSTI2022

Global field observations of tree die-off reveal hotter-drought fingerprint for Earth’s forests

Earth’s forests face grave challenges in the Anthropocene, including hotter droughts increasingly associated with widespread forest die-off events. But despite the vital importance of forests to global ecosystem services, their fates in a warming world remain highly uncertain. Lacking is quantitative determination of commonality in climate anomalies associated with pulses of tree mortality—from published, field-documented mortality events—required for understanding the role of extreme climate events in overall global tree die-off patterns. Here we established a geo-referenced global database documenting climate-induced mortality events spanning all tree-supporting biomes and continents, from 154 peer-reviewed studies since 1970. Our analysis quantifies a global “hotter-drought fingerprint” from these tree-mortality sites—effectively a hotter and drier climate signal for tree mortality—across 675 locations encompassing 1,303 plots. Frequency of these observed mortality-year climate conditions strongly increases nonlinearly under projected warming. Our database also provides initial footing for further community-developed, quantitative, ground-based monitoring of global tree mortality.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Natural and anthropogenic contributions to the hurricane drought of the 1970s–1980s

Atlantic hurricane activity experienced a pronounced lull during the 1970s and 1980s. The current explanation that anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing cooled the sea surface locally fails to capture the magnitude of this large decrease in activity. To explain this hurricane drought, we propose that the radiative effects of sulfate aerosols from Europe and North-America decreased precipitation in the Sahara-Sahel region, leading to an enhancement of dust regional emissions and transport over the Atlantic. This dust in turn enhanced the local decrease of sea-surface temperature and of hurricane activity. Here, we show that dust emissions from the Sahara peaked in phase with regional sulfate aerosol optical thickness and Sahel drought conditions, and that dust optical depth variations alone can explain nearly half of the sea-surface temperature depression in the 1970s and 1980s.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

How the Great Plains Dust Bowl drought spread heat extremes around the Northern Hemisphere

Abstract Extraordinary heat extremes occurred in the 1930s in areas of the Northern Hemisphere far from the record setting heat over the US associated with the Great Plains Dust Bowl drought. A climate model sensitivity experiment is used to identify a new mechanism involving a warm season circumglobal atmospheric teleconnection pattern that spread heat extremes over far-flung areas of the Northern Hemisphere arising from the intense heating over the desiccated Great Plains themselves. It has only been in the twenty-first century that human populations in these regions of the Northern Hemisphere have experienced heat extremes comparable to the 1930s. This demonstrates that humans influenced Northern Hemisphere temperature and heat extremes through disastrous and unprecedented regional land use practices over the Great Plains, and points to the possibility that future intense regional droughts could affect heat extremes on hemispheric scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗