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At least 559 records · Page 31
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Cultivating clarity: understanding the impact of land cost assumptions on biofuel viability

The transition to sustainable energy has increased interest in biofuel production to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, decrease reliance on imported oil, and ensure energy resilience. Here, this study examines the often-overlooked impact of land cost assumptions on the economic viability of biofuel production. Using a discounted cash flow techno-economic framework, we evaluated three land cost scenarios—no land costs, land rental costs, and land purchase costs—across six bioenergy feedstocks (corn, soybeans, switchgrass, miscanthus, poplar, and microalgae) and three biofuel products (corn ethanol, soybean biodiesel, and sustainable aviation fuel) at the county level for the contiguous United States. The analysis reveals substantial variation in minimum fuel selling prices due to these scenarios. High-yield crops like algae showed low sensitivity to land costs, while low-yield crops such as soybeans were highly sensitive. Geographical differences were significant, with minimum fuel selling price increases most pronounced in high-value land regions like the Corn Belt. Case studies further illustrate the influence of local productivity and land costs on economic outcomes across the United States. These findings emphasize the importance of maintaining consistent land cost assumptions in biofuel economic assessments. By quantifying the interplay between land value, crop productivity, and economic feasibility, this study provides essential insights for policymakers and stakeholders to advance sustainable energy solutions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

A coupled hydrologic-agroeconomic modeling framework to evaluate adaptive irrigation strategies under groundwater withdrawal restrictions

Growing groundwater scarcity requires integrated tools to capture interactions among hydrology, agricultural production, markets, and land use. This study presents an iterative modeling framework that couples hydrologic, crop-yield, and economic models to capture two-way feedback among water availability, agricultural production, and market responses under groundwater constraints. The primary goal of this paper is to describe the methodological development of the coupled framework and demonstrate the significance of iterative model interaction. Applied to the western United States, we evaluated adaptive responses to restricting groundwater use beyond recharge levels, represented through changes in irrigation management and expansion or shrinkage of crop markets through land reallocation. Results demonstrate that the iterative coupling converges to stable equilibrium responses within 10 iterations. At equilibrium, deficit irrigation emerges as the dominant adaptation strategy in California, with irrigation levels stabilizing at approximately 70% of full irrigation demand, while Arizona and New Mexico experience stronger yield sensitivities. Early iterations produce commodity price increases of up to 10% for fruit and vegetable crops; however, these responses moderate as land allocation and production patterns adjust across regions. Deficit irrigation and spatial reallocation of irrigated land partially offset production losses, with variability observed across different states: California maintains yields primarily via deficit irrigation, whereas Arizona and New Mexico will rely mainly on reducing irrigated area to absorb the shock. By capturing feedback between biophysical and economic processes, this approach highlights how irrigation strategies and land-use decisions evolve under water stress and provides a transferable platform for evaluating water management policies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Janthinobacter additions reduce rotifer grazing of microalga Microchloropsis salina in biotically complex communities

Grazing and parasitism in algal production systems are significant causes of crop loss. Biological control of algal ponds, such as application of protective bacteria, represents a promising alternative to current mitigation strategies. The major barriers to probiotic methods are the lack of identified protective bacteria and uncertainty of scale-up effects, including potential negative interactions with the resident algal microbiome. Here, we report that application of Janthinobacter lividum affords robust protection against rotifer (Brachionus plicatilis) grazing on Microchloropsis salina. Protection was observed at laboratory scale from live bacteria and solvent extract additions as well as in biologically complex communities from bacterial additions to outdoor mesocosms. J. lividum persisted in outdoor communities for at least 3 days following addition, and did not lead to selective exclusion of specific taxa in the resident microbiome. These results demonstrate that J. lividum can provide protection against grazers in these diverse communities, without severe effects on the resident microbiome. Our results suggest that J. lividum is a promising treatment to mitigate algal crop losses due to pests. Additionally, the study highlights the importance of an ecologically-informed approach to algal crop management that will aid future applications in the biological control of algal ponds.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reduced soil diazotroph diversity decreases nitrogen fixation rates, but depends on land management

Soil diazotrophs convert atmospheric nitrogen into plant-available ammonium through free-living nitrogen fixation (FLNF). This sustainable nitrogen source can reduce our dependence on synthetic fertilizer inputs in conventional agricultural systems. However, we know little about the effect of diazotroph diversity on FLNF, especially given that FLNF is intermediate within the broad-narrow functional spectrum. Here, we determined how management-mediated shifts in diazotroph diversity would impact their ecosystem function (FLNF) by quantifying diazotroph diversity across a long-term management gradient during and after the growing season. In addition to field observations, we leveraged the same management gradient to manipulate diversity in soil microcosms via chloroform fumigation exposure. In the field, diazotroph diversity was significantly higher after the growing season, and the biologically-based annual cropping system harbored the highest diazotroph diversity. However, perennial cropping systems maintained the highest FLNF despite lower diazotroph diversity, and both soil moisture and temperature were stronger predictors of FLNF. Based on these results, integrating diverse perennial crops into agricultural landscape could result in greater N from FLNF, particularly at the end of the growing season. When we reduced biodiversity in a manipulation experiment, the diversity-FLNF association was stronger than in the field experiment, suggesting that FLNF communities are not as functionally redundant as taxonomically ‘broad’ ecosystem functions. Here, the strength of diversity-FLNF correlation varied by previous land management. Diazotroph diversity better predicted FLNF in annual and forest soil microcosms, and microbial biomass carbon better predicted FLNF in perennial soil microcosms. Taken together, our results show that while diazotroph diversity influences FLNF, especially under extreme environmental disturbances, abiotic factors like soil moisture and temperature are stronger constraints on FLNF in the field.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Growing grasses in unprofitable areas of US Midwest croplands could increase species richness

The US has large potential to grow perennial energy crops, but because these crops are rarely grown in current agricultural landscapes, it is unclear how biodiversity may be affected. Over time, as agriculture has increased, many grassland species have declined. In addition, not all agricultural land is profitable for growing annual crops. Unprofitable areas were responsible for a loss of approximately $110 million USD per year from 2013 to 2016. Based on this, we want to know how converting less-profitable portions of agricultural fields to switchgrass, a native prairie grass, would influence species occurrence. To address this question, we developed an alternative landscape in which clustered corn/soy acres with a low return on investment (ROI) were replaced with grassland. We also developed and validated species distribution models to predict changes in species occurrence for 28 avian species in Iowa in response to landscape management. Furthermore, we compared results for three different models: Random forest (RF), Stochastic gradient boosting (GBM), and Neural network (Nnet) and found that all models performed well and predicted similar species distribution. Predicted species richness increased by 3.66% (RF), 2.79% (GBM), and 7.51% (Nnet) when we simulated a change in management for ~3% of Iowa's low ROI corn/soybean areas to grassland. If harvested, these areas could generate approximately 7.6 million dry tons/year of switchgrass for bioenergy, thereby increasing farmers earnings. Unprofitable areas tended to occur along streams, which suggest that incorporating partially harvested riparian buffers can benefit avian biodiversity, while improving water quality and reducing unnecessary costs for farmers.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Process strategies for recovery of sugars, lipids, and lignin from oilcane bagasse using natural deep eutectic solvents (NADES)

Sugarcane is being enhanced as a bioenergy crop by engineering it to accumulate and store lipids along with polymeric sugars in vegetative tissues. However, there is no existing process that allows for processing this new crop to recover both lipid and cellulosic sugars from the oilcane bagasse. Therefore, a comprehensive investi- gation of two pretreatment methods—natural deep eutectic solvents (NADES) and chemical-free hydrothermal pretreatment (HT) was conducted to judge their suitability for recovering fermentable sugars, lipids, and lignin from bagasse. Two NADES, i.e., choline chloride: lactic acid (ChCl:LA) and betaine: lactic acid (BT:LA) were prepared using a 1:2 M ratio and were evaluated for pretreatment of oilcane bagasse at 10, 20, and 50 % (w/w) solids, followed by enzymatic hydrolysis at 10 % (w/w) solids. Notably, ChCl:LA NADES treatment at 10 % (w/ w) solids at 140 °C for 2 h, solubilized 78.8 % of lignin and 80.4 % of hemicellulose and allowed 82.7 % enzymatic conversion of glucans to glucose. In contrast, HT pretreatment removed approximately 87.6 % of the hemicellulose and provided an enzymatic glucose yield of 69.7 %. Furthermore, ChCl:LA operated at 50 % solids loading the enriched lipids 2.6-fold (9.2 wt%) in recovered solids compared to HT (6.4 %) and BT:LA (5.1 %) pretreatment processes. NMR-HSQC and GPC analysis showed that ChCl:LA also cleaved the most lignin β–O–4 linkages and demonstrated lower molecular weight compared to HT. As a result, this study demonstrates that NADES pretreatment is an effective green processing method for recovering lipids, sugars, and lignin from bioenergy crops at high solid loading (50 % w/w) within the context of an integrated biorefinery.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Can the multi-walled carbon nanotubes be used to alleviate the phytotoxicity of herbicides in soils?

Herbicides are commonly used globally. However, residual herbicides in soils for ages often result in phytotoxicity and serious yield loss to subsequent crops. In this paper, the multi-walled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) were utilized to amend the herbicide polluted soil, and the adsorption performance of herbicides to MWCNTs amended soil was studied. Results indicate efficient alleviation of herbicide-induced phytotoxicity to rice and tobacco due to MWCNTs amendment. When 0.4% MWCNTs were applied, the concentration of sulfentrazone that inhibited the same rice height by 50% (IC 50 ) increased to more than 3 times that of pure soil. When the MWCNTs were used to alleviate the phytotoxicity of quinclorac to tobacco, the MWCNTs not only alleviated the phytotoxicity of quinclorac but also promoted the growth of tobacco. Furthermore, the MWCNTs amended soil significantly increased the adsorption of herbicide to soil than biochar. The soil microbial analysis shows that MWCNTs had no significant effect on soil microbial community diversity, but the long-term exposure to MWCNTs could change the structure of the soil microbial community. Above all, our results highlighted the potential implication of the MWCNTs to ensure crop production by promoting crop growth and reducing the residual bioavailability of herbicides.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

A scalable framework for quantifying field-level agricultural carbon outcomes

Agriculture contributes nearly a quarter of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, which is motivating interest in adopting certain farming practices that have the potential to reduce GHG emissions or sequester carbon in soil. The related GHG emission (including N 2 O and CH 4 ) and changes in soil carbon stock are defined here as “agricultural carbon outcomes”. Accurate quantification of agricultural carbon outcomes is the basis for achieving emission reductions for agriculture, but existing approaches for measuring carbon outcomes (including direct measurements, emission factors, and process-based modeling) fall short of achieving the required accuracy and scalability necessary to support credible, verifiable, and cost-effective measurement and improvement of these carbon outcomes. Here we propose a foundational and scalable framework to quantify field-level carbon outcomes for farmland, which is based on the holistic carbon balance of the agroecosystem: Agroecosystem Carbon Outcomes = Environment (E) × Management (M) × Crop (C). Following a comprehensive review of the scientific challenges associated with existing approaches, as well as their tradeoffs between cost and accuracy, we propose that the most viable path for the quantification of field-level carbon outcomes in agricultural land is through an effective integration of various approaches (e.g. diverse observations, sensor/in-situ data, and modeling), defined as the “System-of-Systems” solution. Such a “System-of-Systems” solution should simultaneously comprise the following components: (1) scalable collection of ground truth data and cross-scale sensing of environment variables (E), management practices (M), and crop conditions (C) at the local field level; (2) advanced modeling with necessary processes to support the quantification of carbon outcomes; (3) systematic Model-Data Fusion (MDF), i.e. robust and efficient methods to integrate sensing data and models at each local farmland level; (4) high computation efficiency and artificial intelligence (AI) to scale to millions of individual fields with low cost; and (5) robust and multi-tier validation systems and infrastructures to ensure solution fidelity and true scalability, i.e. the ability of a solution to perform robustly with accepted accuracy on all targeted fields. In this regard, we provide here the detailed scientific rationale, current progress, and future research and development (R&D) priorities to achieve different components of the “System-of-Systems” solution, thus accomplishing the Environment×Management×Crop framework to quantify field-level agricultural carbon outcomes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating the incentive for soil organic carbon sequestration from carinata production in the Southeast United States

Soil organic carbon (SOC) can be increased by cultivating bioenergy crops to produce low-carbon fuels, improving soil quality and agricultural productivity. This study evaluates the incentives for farmers to sequester SOC by adopting a bioenergy crop, carinata. Two agricultural management scenarios – business as usual (BaU) and a climate-smart (no-till) practice – were simulated using an agent-based modeling approach to account for farmers’ carinata adoption rates within their context of traditional crop rotations, the associated profitability, influences of neighboring farmers, as well as their individual attitudes. Here, using the state of Georgia, US, as a case study, the results show that farmers allocated 1056 × 10 3 acres (23.8%; 2.47 acres is equivalent to 1 ha) of farmlands by 2050 at a contract price of $\$6.5$ per bushel of carinata seeds and with an incentive of $50Mg -1 CO2e SOC sequestered under the BaU scenario. In contrast, at the same contract price and SOC incentive rate, farmers allocated 1152 × 10 3 acres (25.9%) of land under the no-till scenario, while the SOC sequestration was 483.83 × 10 3 Mg CO2e, which is nearly four times the amount under the BaU scenario. Thus, this study demonstrated combinations of seed prices and SOC incentives that encourage farmers to adopt carinata with climate-smart practices to attain higher SOC sequestration benefits.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Combined Land Use of Solar Infrastructure and Agriculture for Socioeconomic and Environmental Co-Benefits in the Tropics

Solar photovoltaics (PV) are on the rise even in areas of low solar insolation. However, in developing countries with limited capital, land scarcity, or with geographically isolated agrarian communities, large solar infrastructures are often impractical. In these cases, implementation of low-density PV over existing crops may be required to integrate renewable energy services into rural communities. Here, using Indonesia as a model system, we investigated the land use, energy, greenhouse gas emissions, economic feasibility, and the environmental co-benefits associated with off-grid solar PV when combined with high value crop cultivation. The life cycle analyses indicate that small-scale dual land-use systems are economically viable in certain configurations and have the potential to provide several co-benefits including rural electrification, retrofitting diesel electricity generation, and electricity for processing agricultural products locally. A hypothetical full-density off-grid solar PV for a model village in Indonesia shows that electricity output (1907.5 GJ yr-1) is much higher than the total residential consumption (678 GJ yr-1), highlighting the opportunity to downscale the PV infrastructure by half to lower capital cost, to co-locate crops, and to support secondary income generating activities. Economic analysis shows that the 30-year net present cost of electricity from the half-density co-located PV system (12,257 million IDR) is significantly lower than that of the flat cost of diesel required to generate equivalent electricity (14,702 million IDR). Our analysis provides insights for smarter energy planning by optimizing the efficiency of land use and limiting conversion of agricultural and forested areas for energy production.

agrivoltaics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Long-term compost amendment modulates wheat genotype differences in belowground carbon allocation, microbial rhizosphere recruitment and nitrogen acquisition

The implementation of soil health-promoting practices, such as cover cropping and compost application, has important implications for nutrient cycling and management in agroecosystems. At the same time, plant belowground carbon (C) allocation patterns can influence nutrient cycling and availability in soil through changes to the microbial community, but the effects may depend on the crop genotype and management practices in place. We evaluated belowground C allocation patterns using 13 C labeling and root architecture in two genotypes of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) with different levels of exudation and belowground allocation strategies in soils with contrasting compost amendment legacy (108.7 Mg ha -1 every 2 years over 10 years vs. no compost). We also measured microbial community structure and function in the rhizosphere and quantified uptake of residue-derived N from 15 N-labelled cover crop residues. We found an interactive effect between soil management and genotype, where in the no-compost soil, the high-exudation genotype (Snowmass) increased exudation by over 4-fold, while the low-exudate genotype (Byrd) increased only 2-fold. While we did not observe genotype differences in rhizosphere enzyme activity or dissolved N pools, residue N uptake was 1.8 times greater for Snowmass in the compost-amended soil. There were more rhizosphere microbial taxa associated with the high-exudate genotype (Snowmass); nine bacterial and seven fungal families were indicative of Snowmass, versus one bacterial and four fungal families for Byrd. Our results suggest that the high-exudation strategy can influence the rhizosphere microbial community, and lead to greater short-term residue N uptake in high SOM soil. By directly linking root architecture, exudation, microbial communities, and N mineralization and uptake dynamics, this work demonstrates that plasticity in root C allocation is genotype-specific and influences microbial communities and nutrient cycling depending on the soil health context.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Climate vs Energy Security: Quantifying the Trade-offs of BECCS Deployment and Overcoming Opportunity Costs on Set-Aside Land

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) sits at the nexus of the climate and energy security. We evaluated trade-offs between scenarios that support climate stabilization (negative emissions and net climate benefit) or energy security (ethanol production). Our spatially explicit model indicates that the foregone climate benefit from abandoned cropland (opportunity cost) increased carbon emissions per unit of energy produced by 14–36%, making geologic carbon capture and storage necessary to achieve negative emissions from any given energy crop. The toll of opportunity costs on the climate benefit of BECCS from set-aside land was offset through the spatial allocation of crops based on their individual biophysical constraints. Dedicated energy crops consistently outperformed mixed grasslands. We estimate that BECCS allocation to land enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) could capture up to 9 Tg C year –1 from the atmosphere, deliver up to 16 Tg CE year –1 in emissions savings, and meet up to 10% of the US energy statutory targets, but contributions varied substantially as the priority shifted from climate stabilization to energy provision. Furthermore, our results indicate a significant potential to integrate energy security targets into sustainable pathways to climate stabilization but underpin the trade-offs of divergent policy-driven agendas.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Implications of Global Change for the Co-Evolution of Argentina's Integrated Energy-Water-Land Systems

This study seeks to understand how Argentina’s energy, water, and land (EWL) systems will co-evolve under a representative array of human and earth system influences, including socioeconomic change, climate change, and climate policy. To capture Argentina’s sub-national EWL dynamics in the context of global change, we couple the Global Change Analysis Model with a suite of consistent, gridded sectoral downscaling models to explore multiple stakeholder-engaged scenarios. Across scenarios, Argentina has the economic opportunity to use its vast land resources to satisfy growing domestic and international demand for crops, such as oil (e.g., soy) and biomass. The human (rather than earth) system produces the most dominant changes in mid-century EWL resource use. A Reference scenario characterized by modest socioeconomic growth projects a 40% increase in Argentina’s agricultural production by 2050 (relative to 2020) by using 50,000 km 2 of additional cropland and 40% more water. A Climate Policy scenario designed to achieve net-zero carbon emissions globally shortly after mid-century projects that Argentina could use 100,000 km 2 of additional land (and 65% more water) to grow biomass and other crops. The burden of navigating these national opportunities and challenges could fall disproportionately on a subset of Argentina’s river basins. The Colorado and Negro basins could experience moderate-to-severe water scarcity as they simultaneously navigate substantial irrigated crop demand growth and climate-induced declines in natural water availability. Argentina serves as a generalizable testbed to demonstrate that multi-scale EWL planning challenges can be identified and managed more effectively via integrated analysis of coupled human-earth systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impoverishing Roots Will Improve Wheat Yield and Profitability Through Increased Water and Nitrogen Use Efficiencies

We report that more than a 60% increase in crop production is required by the 2050's to feed a growing world population. Understanding how plant functional traits and field management affect crop yields has the potential to improve agricultural productivity, minimize economic and environmental losses, and maximize food security. We explored the influence of winter wheat root characteristics and management on winter wheat growth, yield, and profit using a mechanistic and well-tested ecosystem and crop model, ecosys. We applied and further tested ecosys at an agricultural farm growing winter wheat in Ardmore, Oklahoma, United States. The model accurately predicted observed shoot carbon (R 2 = 0.95), soil moisture (R 2 = 0.67), soil temperature (R 2 = 0.91), and yield (percent error = 17%). Numerical optimization experiments were conducted to explore potential improvements of winter wheat yield and profit by modifying root characteristics, including root radius and root:shoot carbon transfer conductance, and fertilizer inputs. Our results show the potential for simultaneously improving winter wheat yields and profits. The optimum conditions were found to be in the range of root radius between 0.1 and 0.3 mm, carbon transfer conductance between 0.004 and 0.01 h -1 , and the currently applied fertilizer rate of 112 kg ha -1 . Under these conditions, improvements in yields and profits of up to approximately 25% and 110%, respectively, were modeled compared to those under baseline root traits. These improvements were achieved by impoverishing root structures, thereby increasing nutrient allocation to grains. Our results also demonstrate and motivate model structures that integrate the complex network of plant physiology, soil nutrient biogeochemistry, hydrology, and management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Reanalysis of Water Withdrawal for Irrigation, Electric Power, and Public Supply Sectors in the Conterminous United States, 1950–2016

Accurately measuring water use by the economy is essential for developing reliable models of water resource availability. Indeed, these models rely on retrospective analyses that provide insights into shifting human population demands and adaptions to water shortages. However, accurate, methodologically consistent, empirically authentic, and spatiotemporally comprehensive historical datasets for water withdrawals are scarce. Herein, we present a reanalysis of annual resolution (1950–2016) historical data set on irrigation, electric power, and public supply water withdrawal within the conterminous United States (US) at the county-level, and, for power plants, at the site-level. To estimate electric power water use, we synthesized a historically comprehensive list of generators and historic patterns in generation across fuels, prime movers, and cooling technologies. Irrigation water use estimation required building a crop-demand model that utilized historical information on irrigated acreage for crops and golf courses, stage-specific crop water demand, and climate information. To estimate public water supply use, we developed a random forest model constructed from information on population, infrastructure, climate, and land cover. These estimates generally agree with total county and state water use information provided by the US Geological Survey (USGS) water use circular and estimates generated from independent studies for specific years. However, we also observed discrepancies between our estimates and USGS data that appear to be caused by inconsistencies in the methods used by the USGS's primary data sources at the state level over decades of data collection, highlighting the importance of reanalysis to yield spatiotemporally consistent and intercomparable estimates of water use.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Assessing the Effect of a Deep‐Rooted Grass on Belowground Carbon Storage in Cultivated Land: Insights From a Multi‐Site US Study

Agriculture depletes soil organic carbon (SOC), partly due to the exclusion of deep-rooted perennials. Reintroducing deep-rooted perennials to cultivated land may help to mitigate SOC loss. We quantified the effect of deep roots on SOC by comparing 8 to 30 year-old stands of switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum L .) with paired annual row crop fields at 12 sites across the central and eastern USA. We hypothesized that switchgrass would store more root C and SOC than neighboring shallow-rooted annual crops, and that these effects would extend deeper than 30 cm. We also evaluated whether switchgrass stimulates decomposition of SOC at depth using radiocarbon ( 14 C). Finally, we explored whether the effect of switchgrass on SOC is moderated by soil chemical and physical properties. While the effect of switchgrass on SOC in the surface 100 cm was positive at most sites, the average effect was not statistically significant (difference in SOC = 0.6 kg C m −2 [95% CI −0.8 to +1.9 kg C m −2 ]). By contrast, we found that root C was consistently more abundant under switchgrass, yielding an estimated additional 0.6 kg C m −2 in the surface 100 cm of soil [95% CI +0.5 to +0.7 kg C m −2 ]. 14 C measurements suggested that root C inputs were adding to existing SOC without stimulating decomposition. The effect of switchgrass on belowground C was not strongly related to any of the soil properties that we evaluated. Our observations show that root C can contribute substantially to belowground C stocks when deep-rooted perennials replace shallow-rooted crops.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Contrasting long-term temperature trends reveal minor changes in projected potential evapotranspiration in the US Midwest

Abstract Warming generally leads to increased evaporative demand, altering the amount of water needed for growing crops. For the Midwest, some studies have suggested that reaching yield targets by 2050 will not be possible without additional precipitation or large expansion of irrigation. Here, we show that this claim is not supported by the historical summer climate trends, which indicate that the warming of daily average temperatures is largely driven by increases in minimum temperatures, while maximum temperatures have decreased. This has translated into a net decrease in vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and potential evapotranspiration (PET). With the increasing rainfall, this suggests that crop water deficits have likely become less frequent in the region despite the warming climate. By projecting these trends into 2050 and ancillary use of a crop model, we estimate minor changes in PET that would have minimal effects on corn yields (<6%) under persistence of these trends.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of drought on global food security by 2050

Drought is a major driver of crop production loss, threatening global food security as the population rises toward 9 billion by 2050. Using a process-based crop model within an Earth system model, we assess drought-related impacts on maize, soybean, rice, and wheat production at global and country levels. We then develop a food insecurity index combining drought impacts with socio-economic factors. Our results indicate that by 2050, globally averaged drought losses for combined maize, soybean, rice, and wheat production are <2%, though soybean losses reach 3.6%. Despite these small average changes at the global scale, 62 countries experience maximum production losses over 10%, and 24 countries over 20%. Our index identifies regions at greatest risk, including large parts of South America, Africa, Eastern Europe, and Southeast Asia. These results illustrate the need for drought adaptation to mitigate future drought impacts on crop production.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗