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At least 559 records · Page 31

Future climate change in the Agulhas system and its associated impact on South African rainfall

South African climate variability has been linked to changes in both the Agulhas system and external forcing (i.e. CO 2 and ozone). We analysed future climate change in the Agulhas system volume transport and its associated impacts on South Africa’s precipitation using the Community Climate System Model version 4 as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5. Output from one historical and three future greenhouse gas emission scenarios were examined to project various climate storylines. We found that the Agulhas Current volume transport decreases across all three scenarios and that the current displays a strong baroclinic component with an increase in transport at the surface and decrease at intermediate depths. Agulhas leakage was found to increase with historical emissions. Additionally, an east-west dipole pattern for convective precipitation was found over South Africa, with an increase over the eastern region related to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions and a decrease in the western region linked to the location of Hadley cell edge latitude. Moving into the 21st century, future predictions in regional climate variability are shown to be dependent on the intensity of greenhouse gas emissions and are extremely important for South Africa, a region prone to drought and flooding and home to a large population dependent on rain-fed agriculture.Significance:Future climate variability in the Agulhas system and South African region is heavily dependent on changes in external forcing.The Agulhas Current volume transport decreases as the greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase and a strong baroclinic component is found with an increase in transport at the surface and a decrease at the intermediate depths.A strong east-west dipole precipitation pattern is found over South Africa with the increase in the eastern region related to the increase in greenhouse gas emissions and the decrease in the western region related to the location of the Hadley cell edge latitude.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

ARM Data-Oriented Metrics and Diagnostics Package for Climate Model Evaluation

A Python-based metrics and diagnostics package is currently being developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Infrastructure Team at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) to facilitate the use of long-term, high-frequency measurements from the ARM Facility in evaluating the regional climate simulation of clouds, radiation, and precipitation. This metrics and diagnostics package computes climatological means of targeted climate model simulation and generates tables and plots for comparing the model simulation with ARM observational data. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) model data sets are also included in the package to enable model intercomparison as demonstrated in Zhang et al. (2017). The mean of the CMIP model can serve as a reference for individual models. Basic performance metrics are computed to measure the accuracy of mean state and variability of climate models. The evaluated physical quantities include cloud fraction, temperature, relative humidity, cloud liquid water path, total column water vapor, precipitation, sensible and latent heat fluxes, and radiative fluxes, with plan to extend to more fields, such as aerosol and microphysics properties. Process-oriented diagnostics focusing on individual cloud- and precipitation-related phenomena are also being developed for the evaluation and development of specific model physical parameterizations. The version 1.0 package is designed based on data collected at ARM’s Southern Great Plains (SGP) Research Facility, with the plan to extend to other ARM sites. The metrics and diagnostics package is currently built upon standard Python libraries and additional Python packages developed by DOE (such as CDMS and CDAT). The ARM metrics and diagnostic package is available publicly with the hope that it can serve as an easy entry point for climate modelers to compare their models with ARM data. In this report, we first present the input data, which constitutes the core content of the metrics and diagnostics package in section 2, and a user's guide documenting the workflow/structure of the version 1.0 codes, and including step-by-step instruction for running the package in section 3.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Observational benchmarks inform representation of soil organic carbon dynamics in land surface models

Abstract. Representing soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics in Earth system models (ESMs) is a key source of uncertainty in predicting carbon–climate feedbacks. Machine learning models can help identify dominant environmental controllers and establish their functional relationships with SOC stocks. The resulting knowledge can be integrated into ESMs to reduce uncertainty and improve predictions of SOC dynamics over space and time. In this study, we used a large number of SOC field observations (n=54 000), geospatial datasets of environmental factors (n=46), and two machine learning approaches (namely random forest, RF, and generalized additive modeling, GAM) to (1) identify dominant environmental controllers of global and biome-specific SOC stocks, (2) derive functional relationships between environmental controllers and SOC stocks, and (3) compare the identified environmental controllers and predictive relationships with those in models used in Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Our results showed that the diurnal temperature, drought index, cation exchange capacity, and precipitation were important observed environmental predictors of global SOC stocks. While the RF model identified 14 environmental factors that describe climatic, vegetation, and edaphic conditions as important predictors of global SOC stocks (R2=0.61, RMSE = 0.46 kg m−2), current ESMs oversimplify the relationships between environmental factors and SOC, with precipitation, temperature, and net primary productivity explaining > 96 % of the variability in ESM-modeled SOC stocks. Further, our study revealed notable disparities among the functional relationships between environmental factors and SOC stocks simulated by ESMs compared with observed relationships. To improve SOC representations in ESMs, it is imperative to incorporate additional environmental controls, such as the cation exchange capacity, and refine the functional relationships to align more closely with observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Reaching 1.5 and 2.0 °C global surface temperature targets using stratospheric aerosol geoengineering

A new set of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering (SAG) model experiments has been performed with Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM6) that are based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) overshoot scenario (SSP5-34-OS) as a baseline scenario to limit global warming to 1.5 or 2.0 °C above 1850–1900 conditions. The overshoot scenario allows us to applying a peak-shaving scenario that reduces the needed duration and amount of SAG application compared to a high forcing scenario. In addition, a feedback algorithm identifies the needed amount of sulfur dioxide injections in the stratosphere at four pre-defined latitudes, 30 °N, 15 °N, 15 °S, and 30 °S, to reach three surface temperature targets: global mean temperature, and interhemispheric and pole-to-Equator temperature gradients. These targets further help to reduce side effects, including overcooling in the tropics, warming of high latitudes, and large shifts in precipitation patterns. These experiments are therefore relevant for investigating the impacts on society and ecosystems. Comparisons to SAG simulations based on a high emission pathway baseline scenario (SSP5-85) are also performed to investigate the dependency of impacts using different injection amounts to offset surface warming by SAG. We find that changes from present-day conditions around 2020 in some variables depend strongly on the defined temperature target (1.5 °C vs. 2.0 °C). These include surface air temperature and related impacts, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which impacts ocean net primary productivity, and changes in ice sheet surface mass balance, which impacts sea level rise. Others, including global precipitation changes and the recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole, depend strongly on the amount of SAG application. Furthermore, land net primary productivity as well as ocean acidification depend mostly on the global atmospheric CO 2 concentration and therefore the baseline scenario. Multi-model comparisons of experiments that include strong mitigation and carbon dioxide removal with some SAG application are proposed to assess the robustness of impacts on societies and ecosystems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Simulated appearance of an evolving supercell hail storm at SSM/I microwave frequencies

The contribution of distinct classes of hydrometeors generated from a cloud model to top-of-atmosphere microwave brightness temperatures is studied at the four separate frequencies of the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I). The relative radiative role of individual modes of hydrometeors during the evolution of a severe thunderstorm is examined using a microwave radiative transfer model coupled with a three-dimensional cloud model capable of simulating the essential dynamical and microphysical features of an intense hail store. Consideration is given to plans to use the simulation results with actual multichannel measurements from SSM/I to provide a framework for multispectral precipitation retrieval algorithms.

Smith, Eric A.↗

Mutual Inductance Problem for a System Consisting of a Current Sheet and a Thin Metal Plate

Rapid inspection of aircraft structures for flaws is of vital importance to the commercial and defense aircraft industry. In particular, inspecting thin aluminum structures for flaws is the focus of a large scale R&D effort in the nondestructive evaluation (NDE) community. Traditional eddy current methods used today are effective, but require long inspection times. New electromagnetic techniques which monitor the normal component of the magnetic field above a sample due to a sheet of current as the excitation, seem to be promising. This paper is an attempt to understand and analyze the magnetic field distribution due to a current sheet above an aluminum test sample. A simple theoretical model, coupled with a two dimensional finite element model (FEM) and experimental data will be presented in the next few sections. A current sheet above a conducting sample generates eddy currents in the material, while a sensor above the current sheet or in between the two plates monitors the normal component of the magnetic field. A rivet or a surface flaw near a rivet in an aircraft aluminum skin will disturb the magnetic field, which is imaged by the sensor. Initial results showed a strong dependence of the flaw induced normal magnetic field strength on the thickness and conductivity of the current-sheet that could not be accounted for by skin depth attenuation alone. It was believed that the eddy current imaging method explained the dependence of the thickness and conductivity of the flaw induced normal magnetic field. Further investigation, suggested the complexity associated with the mutual inductance of the system needed to be studied. The next section gives an analytical model to better understand the phenomenon.

Fulton, J. P.↗

Methane and Environmental Change during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM): Modeling the PETM Onset as a Two-stage Event

An atmospheric CH4 box model coupled to a global carbon cycle box model is used to constrain the carbon emission associated with the PETM and assess the role of CH4 during this event. A range of atmospheric and oceanic emission scenarios representing different amounts, rates, and isotopic signatures of emitted carbon are used to model the PETM onset. The first 3 kyr of the onset, a pre-isotope excursion stage, is simulated by the atmospheric release of 900 to 1100 Pg C CH4 with a delta C-13 of -22 to - 30 %. For a global average warming of 3 deg C, a release of CO2 to the ocean and CH4 to the atmosphere totalling 900 to 1400 Pg C, with a delta C-13 of -50 to -60%, simulates the subsequent 1 -kyr isotope excursion stage. To explain the observations, the carbon must have been released over at most 500 years. The first stage results cannot be associated with any known PETM hypothesis. However, the second stage results are consistent with a methane hydrate source. More than a single source of carbon is required to explain the PETM onset.

Carozza, David A.↗

Downscaling GISS ModelE Boreal Summer Climate over Africa

The study examines the perceived added value of downscaling atmosphere-ocean global climate model simulations over Africa and adjacent oceans by a nested regional climate model. NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) coupled ModelE simulations for June- September 1998-2002 are used to form lateral boundary conditions for synchronous simulations by the GISS RM3 regional climate model. The ModelE computational grid spacing is 2deg latitude by 2.5deg longitude and the RM3 grid spacing is 0.44deg. ModelE precipitation climatology for June-September 1998-2002 is shown to be a good proxy for 30-year means so results based on the 5-year sample are presumed to be generally representative. Comparison with observational evidence shows several discrepancies in ModelE configuration of the boreal summer inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ). One glaring shortcoming is that ModelE simulations do not advance the West African rain band northward during the summer to represent monsoon precipitation onset over the Sahel. Results for 1998-2002 show that onset simulation is an important added value produced by downscaling with RM3. ModelE Eastern South Atlantic Ocean computed sea-surface temperatures (SST) are some 4 K warmer than reanalysis, contributing to large positive biases in overlying surface air temperatures (Tsfc). ModelE Tsfc are also too warm over most of Africa. RM3 downscaling somewhat mitigates the magnitude of Tsfc biases over the African continent, it eliminates the ModelE double ITCZ over the Atlantic and it produces more realistic orographic precipitation maxima. Parallel ModelE and RM3 simulations with observed SST forcing (in place of the predicted ocean) lower Tsfc errors but have mixed impacts on circulation and precipitation biases. Downscaling improvements of the meridional movement of the rain band over West Africa and the configuration of orographic precipitation maxima are realized irrespective of the SST biases.

Regional climate models↗

A Practical Philosophy of Complex Climate Modelling

We give an overview of the practice of developing and using complex climate models, as seen from experiences in a major climate modelling center and through participation in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP).We discuss the construction and calibration of models; their evaluation, especially through use of out-of-sample tests; and their exploitation in multi-model ensembles to identify biases and make predictions. We stress that adequacy or utility of climate models is best assessed via their skill against more naive predictions. The framework we use for making inferences about reality using simulations is naturally Bayesian (in an informal sense), and has many points of contact with more familiar examples of scientific epistemology. While the use of complex simulations in science is a development that changes much in how science is done in practice, we argue that the concepts being applied fit very much into traditional practices of the scientific method, albeit those more often associated with laboratory work.

complex simulation↗

GEM-CEDAR Challenge: Poynting Flux at DMSP and Modeled Joule Heat

Poynting flux into the ionosphere measures the electromagnetic energy coming from the magnetosphere. This energy flux can vary greatly between quiet times and geomagnetic active times. As part of the Geospace Environment Modeling-coupling energetics and dynamics of atmospheric regions modeling challenge, physics-based models of the 3-D ionosphere and ionospheric electrodynamics solvers of magnetosphere models that specify Joule heat and empirical models specifying Poynting flux were run for six geomagnetic storm events of varying intensity. We compared model results with Poynting flux values along the DMSP-15 satellite track computed from ion drift meter and magnetic field observations. Although being a different quantity, Joule heat can in practice be correlated to incoming Poynting flux because the energy is dissipated primarily in high latitudes where Poynting flux is being deposited. Within the physics-based model group, we find mixed results with some models overestimating Joule heat and some models agreeing better with observed Poynting flux rates as integrated over auroral passes. In contrast, empirical models tend to underestimate integrated Poynting flux values. Modeled Joule heat or Poynting flux patterns often resemble the observed Poynting flux patterns on a large scale, but amplitudes can differ by a factor of 2 or larger due to the highly localized nature of observed Poynting flux deposition that is not captured by the models. In addition, the positioning of modeled patterns appear to be randomly shifted against the observed Poynting flux energy input. This study is the first to compare Poynting flux and Joule heat in a large variety of models of the ionosphere.

Rastaetter, Lutz↗

Transition Analysis for the CRM-NLF Wind Tunnel Configuration using Transport Equation Models and Linear Stability Correlations

Transition models based on auxiliary transport equations augmenting the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) framework rely upon transition correlations that were derived from a limited number of low-speed experiments. Furthermore, these models often account for only a subset of the relevant transition mechanisms and/or cannot accurately predict the sensitivity of those mechanisms to the changes in significant flow parameters. A preceding investigation had targeted the assessment of the transport-equation-based transition models in NASA's OVERFLOW 2.3b solver, namely, the amplification factor transport (AFT-2017b) equation model coupled with the Spalart-Allmaras RANS model and the Langtry-Menter transition models (LM2009 without crossflow effects and LM2015 including the modeling of crossflow transition) implemented with Menter’s shear-stress transport equation (SST2003) RANS model. Comparisons with recent measurements at transonic freestream conditions on the Common Research Model with Natural Laminar Flow (CRM-NLF) reinforced our earlier finding that all three of the above models significantly underpredict the reported extent of the laminar flow region over the entire span of the wing, regardless of the dominant instability mechanism(s) underlying the onset of the transition process. The underprediction of the laminar flow extent was attributed to the failure of the above models in accounting for the stabilizing effect of compressibility on the amplification of Tollmien-Schlichting instabilities. Based on previous linear stability studies related to compressibility effects, the present work proposes modifications to the two classes of transition models that reduce to the original form of each model at low subsonic speeds and do not require any nonlocal flow information or additional transport equation(s). The modifications are shown to significantly improve the predicted laminar extent of the flow and compare well against the data from the CRM-NLF experiment. Additionally, a previous assessment of transition prediction based on the dual, nonparallel N -factor method in conjunction with linear parabolized stability equations (PSE) is extended to additional angles of attack to provide the first comprehensive assessment of transition models based on nonparallel disturbance amplification over the CRM-NLF. In general, the transition criterion based on the dual, nonparallel N-factor method with N TS = N CF = 6 is reasonably successful at correlating with the measured transition fronts at R eMAC = 15 million for all angles of attack investigated herein and provides additional validation of the improved predictions from the compressibility-corrected transition models.

CFD modeling↗

Transition Analysis for the CRM-NLF Wind Tunnel Configuration using Transport Equation Models and Linear Stability Correlations

Transition models based on auxiliary transport equations augmenting the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) framework rely upon transition correlations that were derived from a limited number of low-speed experiments. Furthermore, these models often account for only a subset of the relevant transition mechanisms and/or cannot accurately predict the sensitivity of those mechanisms to the changes in significant flow parameters. A preceding investigation had targeted the assessment of the transport-equation-based transition models in NASA's OVERFLOW 2.3b solver, namely, the amplification factor transport (AFT-2017b) equation model coupled with the Spalart-Allmaras RANS model and the Langtry-Menter transition models (LM2009 without crossflow effects and LM2015 including the modeling of crossflow transition) implemented with Menter’s shear-stress transport equation (SST2003) RANS model. Comparisons with recent measurements at transonic freestream conditions on the Common Research Model with Natural Laminar Flow (CRM-NLF) reinforced our earlier finding that all three of the above models significantly underpredict the reported extent of the laminar flow region over the entire span of the wing, regardless of the dominant instability mechanism(s) underlying the onset of the transition process. The underprediction of the laminar flow extent was attributed to the failure of the above models in accounting for the stabilizing effect of compressibility on the amplification of Tollmien-Schlichting instabilities. Based on previous linear stability studies related to compressibility effects, the present work proposes modifications to the two classes of transition models that reduce to the original form of each model at low subsonic speeds and do not require any nonlocal flow information or additional transport equation(s). The modifications are shown to significantly improve the predicted laminar extent of the flow and compare well against the data from the CRM-NLF experiment. Additionally, a previous assessment of transition prediction based on the dual, nonparallel N -factor method in conjunction with linear parabolized stability equations (PSE) is extended to additional angles of attack to provide the first comprehensive assessment of transition models based on nonparallel disturbance amplification over the CRM-NLF. In general, the transition criterion based on the dual, nonparallel N-factor method with N TS = N CF = 6 is reasonably successful at correlating with the measured transition fronts at R eMAC = 15 million for all angles of attack investigated herein and provides additional validation of the improved predictions from the compressibility-corrected transition models.

CFD modeling↗

Attribution of Stratospheric and Tropospheric Ozone Changes Between 1850 and 2014 in CMIP6 Models

We quantify the impacts of halogenated ozone-depleting substances (ODSs), greenhouse gases (GHGs), and short-lived ozone precursors on ozone changes between 1850 and 2014 using single-forcing perturbation simulations from several Earth system models with interactive chemistry participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project. We present the responses of ozone to individual forcings and an attribution of changes in ozone columns and vertically resolved stratospheric and tropospheric ozone to these forcings. We find that whilst substantial ODS-induced ozone loss dominates the stratospheric ozone changes since the 1970s, in agreement with previous studies, increases in tropospheric ozone due to increases in short-lived ozone precursors and methane since the 1950s make increasingly important contributions to total column ozone (TCO) changes. Increases in methane also lead to substantial extra-tropical stratospheric ozone increases. Impacts of nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide on stratospheric ozone are significant but their impacts on TCO are small overall due to several opposing factors and are also associated with large dynamical variability. The multi-model mean (MMM) results show a clear change in the stratospheric ozone trends after 2000 due to now declining ODSs, but the trends are generally not significantly positive, except in the extra-tropical upper stratosphere, due to relatively small changes in forcing over this period combined with large model uncertainty. Although the MMM ozone compares well with the observations, the inter-model differences are large primarily due to the large differences in the models' representation of ODS-induced ozone depletion.

Halogenated ozone-depleting substances↗

Beginning and Ending Droughts in a Warmer World

Droughts are typically caused by below-normal precipitation and typically terminate in response to high precipitation. In many regions, soil moisture is projected to decrease in a warmer world. At the same time, changes in both mean and extreme precipitation are expected as the global mean temperature increases. How will these precipitation changes interact with soil moisture changes to affect drought onset and termination? In this study, we use climate model projections from Phase Six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to investigate how changes in mean precipitation affect soil moisture drought in the context of future warming in the Mediterranean and Western North America. We show that the same precipitation deficits at a global warming level of 2 degrees Celsius increase the likelihood of both moderate and severe drought compared to the pre-industrial baseline. Further, we evaluate the effectiveness of a given precipitation anomaly to terminate a soil moisture drought under different warming levels. These analyses offer a better understanding of the cascading impacts of, and relationships between, precipitation, precipitation extremes, and drought termination under warmer global temperatures.

Drought↗

Beginning and Ending Droughts in a Warmer World

Droughts are typically caused by below-normal precipitation and typically terminate in response to high precipitation. In many regions, soil moisture is projected to decrease in a warmer world. At the same time, changes in both mean and extreme precipitation are expected as the global mean temperature increases. How will these precipitation changes interact with soil moisture changes to affect drought onset and termination? In this study, we use climate model projections from Phase Six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to investigate how changes in mean precipitation affect soil moisture drought in the context of future warming in the Mediterranean and Western North America. We show that the same precipitation deficits at a global warming level of 2 degrees Celsius increase the likelihood of both moderate and severe drought compared to the pre-industrial baseline. Further, we evaluate the effectiveness of a given precipitation anomaly to terminate a soil moisture drought under different warming levels. These analyses offer a better understanding of the cascading impacts of, and relationships between, precipitation, precipitation extremes, and drought termination under warmer global temperatures.

Drought↗

The Changing Influence of Precipitation on Soil Moisture Drought With Warming in the Mediterranean and Western North America

Anthropogenic climate change has already affected drought severity and risk across many regions, and climate models project additional increases in drought risk with future warming. Historically, droughts are typically caused by periods of below-normal precipitation and terminated by average or above-normal precipitation. In many regions, however, soil moisture is projected to decrease primarily through warming-driven increases in evaporative demand, potentially affecting the ability of negative precipitation anomalies to cause drought and positive precipitation anomalies to terminate drought. Here, we use climate model simulations from Phase Six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to investigate how different levels of warming (1, 2, and 3°C) affect the influence of precipitation on soil moisture drought in the Mediterranean and Western North America regions. We demonstrate that the same monthly precipitation deficits (25th percentile relative to a preindustrial baseline) at a global warming level of 2°C increase the probability of both surface and rootzone soil moisture drought by 29% in the Mediterranean and 32% and 6% in Western North America compared to the preindustrial baseline. Furthermore, the probability of a dry (25th percentile relative to a preindustrial baseline) surface soil moisture month given a high (75th percentile relative to a preindustrial baseline) precipitation month is 6 (Mediterranean) and 3 (Western North America) times more likely in a 2°C world compared to the preindustrial baseline. For these regions, warming will likely increase the risk of soil moisture drought during low precipitation periods while simultaneously reducing the efficacy of high precipitation periods to terminate droughts.

drought↗

Tropospheric Jet Response to Antarctic Ozone Depletion: An Update with Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) Models

The Southern Hemisphere (SH) zonal-mean circulation change in response to Antarctic ozone depletion is re-visited by examining a set of the latest model simulations archived for the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) project. All models reasonably well reproduce Antarctic ozone depletion in the late 20th century. The related SH-summer circulation changes, such as a poleward intensification of westerly jet and a poleward expansion of the Hadley cell, are also well captured. All experiments exhibit quantitatively the same multi-model mean trend, irrespective of whether the ocean is coupled or prescribed. Results are also quantitatively similar to those derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) high-top model simulations in which the stratospheric ozone is mostly prescribed with monthly- and zonally-averaged values. These results suggest that the ozone-hole-induced SH-summer circulation changes are robust across the models irrespective of the specific chemistry-atmosphere-ocean coupling.

chemistry-climate models↗