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DOE OSTI2022

Findings on Subtask 3.1 - Bakken Rich Gas Enhanced Oil Recovery Project

Total in-place oil for the Bakken petroleum system (BPS) (which includes the Bakken and Three Forks Formations) has been estimated to be 600 billion barrels (bbl). However, BPS wells have decline rates as high as 85% over the first 3 years of their lives, and primary recovery factors typically range from 3% to 10% of original oil in place. Given the low initial recovery rates, even small incremental productivity improvements could dramatically increase technically recoverable oil in the BPS. One potential solution is enhanced oil recovery (EOR) using gas injection, such as carbon dioxide (CO2) or hydrocarbon (HC) gases. While commonly used in conventional reservoirs, CO2 EOR in unconventional tight oil reservoirs has been limited to pilot tests. EOR using rich gas (mixture of methane, ethane, and propane) has also been employed in numerous pilots in several unconventional plays and has recently been successfully applied in the Eagle Ford play. If successful, large-scale gas-based EOR in the BPS could dramatically increase oil productivity and recovery factors and extend the life of the play for decades. While CO2 may be a technically suitable working fluid for EOR in the BPS, supplies are limited and costs for using CO2 in EOR pilots are prohibitively high. Meanwhile, produced gas flaring has presented challenges for BPS operators in North Dakota. Analysis conducted by the North Dakota Pipeline Authority indicates that the current gas-gathering infrastructure in North Dakota is insufficient to accommodate all of the associated gas that is produced from the BPS. The geographically isolated location of North Dakota relative to large natural gas markets, combined with suppressed natural gas prices, has made it economically challenging for industry to invest capital in expanding gas-gathering infrastructure in the state. These circumstances led to a research program conducted by the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) in partnership with Liberty Resources Management Company LLC (LR) to examine the potential to use rich gas injection for EOR and mitigate flaring. A rich gas EOR pilot test was designed and executed by LR at its Stomping Horse development area in Williams County, North Dakota. From July 2018 through May 2019, a total of 160 million standard cubic feet (MMscf) of rich produced gas was injected into the BPS using five different wells in a sequential injection strategy. LR’s Leon–Gohrick drill spacing unit (DSU) was used as the test site. Regulatory oversight was provided by the North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC). Technical support was provided by the EERC through a series of laboratory, modeling, and field-based activities, and additional post-pilot research activities incorporated learnings from the test, developed new laboratory data, improved fracture modeling methods, and developed machine learning and big data analytics. The results from the Stomping Horse rich gas EOR pilot activities indicate that developing an effective, economical EOR approach for the BPS will require more field tests. Another key lesson learned from the Stomping Horse tests is that detailed pre- and posttest data on reservoir conditions and fluids production are essential. Robust reservoir characterization provides information that is crucial to creating realistic geomodels and conducting valid dynamic simulations of potential EOR scenarios. A detailed understanding of the completions and production history of offset wells is also necessary for valid test result interpretations. This knowledge is essential to designing the operational parameters of injectivity tests and interpreting the results. A conformance control strategy is also essential to success. Laboratory-based examinations of rich gas interactions with reservoir fluids and rocks were conducted, with an emphasis on determining the ability to mobilize oil in the tight reservoir rocks and shales of the BPS. Injection fluid composition was shown to have a positive impact on reducing reservoir oil minimum miscibility pressure (MMP), reducing interfacial tension (IFT), and altering wettability. IFT and contact angle measurements demonstrated that wettability can be altered in the presence of rich gas, suggesting the potential to improve oil recovery. Iterative modeling of surface infrastructure and reservoir performance using data generated by the various project activities was conducted. A geologic model of the Stomping Horse area was built; history-matched oil, gas, and water production was used in simulations of various EOR scenarios. Early programmatic modeling results were used to support LR’s design and operation of the EOR pilot and to provide insight regarding optimization of future commercial-scale BPS EOR design and operations. Post-pilot modeling focused on alternative methods of understanding complex fracture networks and accelerating simulation time. These led to improved simulation run times and provide excellent history-matching results. Several of these iterative models were used as the bases for developing algorithms into machine learning and big data analytics. History matching in reservoir simulation is time-consuming and computer processing-intensive. Machine learning algorithms were created, and an automated history-matching tool was developed. A large set of synthetic reservoir simulations were created to generate well responses (oil, gas, and water production, well bottomhole pressure [BHP], and tracer or propane breakthrough) for a set of EOR operating parameters that included offset well status (open or closed), injectate (rich gas or propane), injection rate, and injection well BHP. A user interface was developed to provide real-time visualization. Machine learning-based models were developed to provide rapid forecasting of well performance given a set of user-defined EOR operating parameters. These predictive models allow the user to modify the offset well status, injection rate, and injection well BHP and rapidly forecast future production performance. The combination of real-time visualization tools with real-time forecasting tools provides a framework for real-time control—operational changes that the EOR site operator can enact (e.g., changing gas injection rates) to affect the observed performance and potentially improve the EOR outcome. There is great reason to be optimistic about the future of EOR in the Bakken. The results of the laboratory studies suggest significant potential for high rates of oil mobilization using produced field gas injection under the right conditions. The results of the lab studies, combined with rigorous statistical analysis of well production data and associated modeling efforts, confirm the notion that fluid mobility within the reservoir is controlled by fractures. As more knowledge is gained about the nature and distribution of fracture networks in the Bakken, the industry will be in a better position to predict and, ultimately, influence fluid mobility. New field tests are necessary to develop a more complete understanding of those conditions. Thoughtful and creatively engineered field tests within a well-characterized geologic setting will yield the fundamental knowledge needed to take Bakken oil production to the next level. This subtask was cofunded through the EERC–U.S. Department of Energy Joint Program on Research and Development for Fossil Energy-Related Resources Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FE0024233. Nonfederal funding was provided by the North Dakota Industrial Commission’s Oil and Gas Research Program and Computer Modelling Group.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

NASA NTRS1997

An Application of the "Virtual Spacecraft" Concept in Evaluation of the Mars Pathfinder Lander Low Gain Antenna

The virtual spacecraft concept is embodied in a set of subsystems, either in the form of hardware or computational models, which together represent all, or a portion of, a spacecraft. For example, the telecommunications transponder may be a hardware prototype while the propulsion system may exist only as a simulation. As the various subsystems are realized in hardware, the spacecraft becomes progressively less virtual. This concept is enabled by JPL's Mission System Testbed which is a set of networked workstations running a message passing operating system called "TRAMEL" which stands for Task Remote Asynchronous Message Exchange Layer. Each simulation on the workstations, which may in fact be hardware controlled by the workstation, "publishes" its operating parameters on TRAMEL and other simulations requiring those parameters as input may "subscribe" to them. In this manner, the whole simulation operates as a single virtual system. This paper describes a simulation designed to evaluate a communications link between the earth and the Mars Pathfinder Lander module as it descends under a parachute through the Martian atmosphere toward the planet's surface. This link includes a transmitter and a low gain antenna on the spacecraft and a receiving antenna and receiver on the earth as well as a simulation of the dynamics of the spacecraft. The transmitter, the ground station antenna, the receiver and the dynamics are all simulated computationally while the spacecraft antenna is implemented in hardware on a very simple spacecraft mockup. The dynamics simulation is a record of one output of the ensemble of outputs of a Monte Carlo simulation of the descent. Additionally, the antenna/spacecraft mock-up system was simulated using APATCH, a shooting and bouncing ray code developed by Demaco, Inc. The antenna simulation, the antenna hardware, and the link simulation are all physically located in different facilities at JPL separated by several hundred meters and are linked via the local area network (LAN).

Pogorzelski, R. J.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Time-frequency based cyber security defense of wide-area control system for fast frequency reserve

Global power systems are transiting from conventional fossil fuel energy to renewable energies due to their environmental benefits. The increasing penetration of renewable energies presents challenges for power system operation. The efficiency and sufficiency of responsive reserves have become increasingly important for power systems with a high proportion of renewable energies. The Fast Frequency Reserve (FFR), especially the Wide-area Monitoring System (WAMS)-based FFR, is a promising and effective solution to secure and enhance the stability of power systems. However, cyber security has become a new challenge for the WAMS-based FFR system. Cyber attacks on the FFR control system may threaten the safety of power system operation due to the rapid power controllability requirement of FFR. Therefore, to address this problem, a time-frequency based cyber security defense framework is proposed to detect the cyber spoofing of synchrophasor data in WAMS-based FFR control systems. This paper first introduces the Continuous Wavelet Transforms (CWTs) to decompose spoofing signals. Then, the Dual-frequency Scale Convolutional Neural Networks (DSCNN) is proposed to identify the time-frequency domains matrix from two frequency scales. Integrating CWTs and DSCNN, an identification framework called CWTs-DSCNN is further proposed to detect the spoofing attacks in the WAMS-based FFR system. Multiple experiments using the actual data from FNET/GridEye are performed to verify the effectiveness of the framework in securing WAMS-based FFR systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Aperture and roughness govern iron oxide passivation in olivine fractures during carbon mineralization

Efficient carbon dioxide mineralization in silicate-rich formations depends on reaction rates within fracture networks, yet the role of fracture microstructure remains poorly constrained. We investigated how fracture aperture and surface roughness influence mineralization by reacting synthetic forsteritic olivine fractures with controlled apertures (0.5–1.6 millimeters) and roughness (6–16 micrometers) with supercritical carbon dioxide at 13.7 megapascals and 185 degrees Celsius. Optical microscopy and Raman spectroscopy showed that rougher fracture surfaces promoted iron oxide precipitation, which passivated olivine surfaces, limiting magnesium availability for carbonate formation while removing iron as a reactant. These effects were more pronounced in smaller-aperture fractures. A geochemical model incorporating surface topography and passivation reproduced the observed trends, confirming that increased roughness can reduce reactivity despite greater surface area. Our results demonstrate that fracture microstructure strongly influences iron oxide passivation and carbon dioxide mineralization, with important implications for predicting long-term performance of engineered carbon dioxide storage systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Measuring stomatal and guard cell metrics for plant physiology and growth using StoManager1

Abstract Automated guard cell detection and measurement are vital for understanding plant physiological performance and ecological functioning in global water and carbon cycles. Most current methods for measuring guard cells and stomata are laborious, time-consuming, prone to bias, and limited in scale. We developed StoManager1, a high-throughput tool utilizing geometrical, mathematical algorithms, and convolutional neural networks to automatically detect, count, and measure over 30 guard cell and stomatal metrics, including guard cell and stomatal area, length, width, stomatal aperture area/guard cell area, orientation, stomatal evenness, divergence, and aggregation index. Combined with leaf functional traits, some of these StoManager1-measured guard cell and stomatal metrics explained 90% and 82% of tree biomass and intrinsic water use efficiency (iWUE) variances in hardwoods, making them substantial factors in leaf physiology and tree growth. StoManager1 demonstrated exceptional precision and recall (mAP@0.5 over 0.96), effectively capturing diverse stomatal properties across over 100 species. StoManager1 facilitates the automation of measuring leaf stomatal and guard cells, enabling broader exploration of stomatal control in plant growth and adaptation to environmental stress and climate change. This has implications for global gross primary productivity (GPP) modeling and estimation, as integrating stomatal metrics can enhance predictions of plant growth and resource usage worldwide. Easily accessible open-source code and standalone Windows executable applications are available on a GitHub repository (https://github.com/JiaxinWang123/StoManager1) and Zenodo (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7686022).

Wang, Jiaxin (ORCID:0000000348085085)↗

NASA NTRS1995

A microcontroller-based three degree-of-freedom manipulator testbed

A wheeled exploratory vehicle is under construction at the Mars Mission Research Center at North Carolina State University. In order to serve as more than an inspection tool, this vehicle requires the ability to interact with its surroundings. A crane-type manipulator, as well as the necessary control hardware and software, has been developed for use as a sample gathering tool on this vehicle. The system is controlled by a network of four Motorola M68HC11 microcontrollers. Control hardware and software were developed in a modular fashion so that the system can be used to test future control algorithms and hardware. Actuators include three stepper motors and one solenoid. Sensors include three optical encoders and one cable tensiometer. The vehicle supervisor computer provides the manipulator system with the approximate coordinates of the target object. This system maps the workspace surrounding the given location by lowering the claw, along a set of evenly spaced vertical lines, until contact occurs. Based on this measured height information and prior knowledge of the target object size, the system determines if the object exists in the searched area. The system can find and retrieve a 1.25 in. diameter by 1.25 in. tall cylinder placed within the 47.5 sq in search area in less than 12 minutes. This manipulator hardware may be used for future control algorithm verification and serves as a prototype for other manipulator hardware.

Brown, Robert Michael, Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2022

A Network of Field-Calibrated Low-Cost Sensor Measurements of PM2.5 in Lomé, Togo, Over One to Two Years

Air pollution is a leading cause of global premature mortality and is especially prevalent in many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). In sub-Saharan Africa, preliminary monitoring networks, satellite retrievals of air-quality-relevant species, and air quality models show ambient fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) concentrations that far exceed the World Health Organization guidelines, yet many areas remain largely unmonitored and understudied. Deploying a network of five low-cost PurpleAir PM 2.5 monitors over 2 years (2019–2021), we present the first multiyear ambient air pollution monitoring data results from Lomé, Togo, a major West African coastal city with a population of about 1.4 million people. The full-study time period network-wide mean measured daily PM 2.5 concentration is 23.5 μ g m –3 m –3 . The strong regional influence of the dry and dusty Harmattan wind increases the local average PM 2.5 concentration by up to 58% during December through February, but the diurnal and weekly trends in PM 2.5 are largely controlled by local influences. At all sites, more than 87% of measured days exceeded the new WHO Daily PM 2.5 guidelines; these first measurements highlight the need for air quality improvement in a rapidly growing urban metropolis.

air pollution↗

DOE OSTI2021

Long and Winding Road to Higher Efficiency-The RTU Story: Preprint

Rooftop units (RTUs) and other packaged heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) equipment consume more than four quads of energy annually while conditioning more than 50% of the commercial building floor area in the United States. Historically, these systems have low operating efficiencies and receive infrequent maintenance. In addition, the market has a low first cost, run-to-failure, like-for-like replacement mentality and has been slow to adopt change. This paper explores the broad market transformation that has resulted in higher efficiencies and tremendous energy savings. Although there are many factors in this market transformation, this paper highlights: research behind advancements in components and controls; adoption of an operational efficiency metric; raising the bar for high efficiency with the RTU Challenge; market barriers overcome through the Advanced RTU Campaign; upstream and midstream incentive programs and HVAC distribution networks; alignment of the market efficiency drivers of ASHRAE Standard 90.1, federal minimum efficiency standards, the ENERGY STAR® program, and the Consortium for Energy Efficiency's (CEE's) efficiency tiers. Measures of the market transformation include more than 50% increase in RTU efficiencies, more than 1 billion kWh saved and 160,000 RTUs upgraded with high-efficiency measures by the Advanced RTU Campaign partners, large increases of high-efficiency RTUs purchased through incentive programs, and the largest energy savings from any federal minimum standards action. Although these results are impressive, the market transformation is just beginning, and there remain exciting opportunities for improvements in equipment efficiencies and improved operating performance with advanced controls and fault detection and diagnostics.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

NASA NTRS1980

Integration of SPS with utility system networks

The integration of Satellite Power System (SPS) power in electric utility power systems is discussed. Specifically, the nature of the power output variations from the spacecraft to the rectenna, the operational characteristics of the rectenna power, and the impacts on the electric utility system from utilizing SPS power to serve part of the system load are treated. It is concluded that if RF beam control is an acceptable method for power control, and that the site distribution of SPS rectennas do not cause a very high local penetration (40 to 50%), SPS may be integrated into electric utility system with a few negative impacts. Increased regulating duty on the conventional generation, and a potential impact on system reliability for SPS penetration in excess of about 25% appear to be two areas of concern.

Kaupang, B. M.↗

DOE OSTI2024

User-Centric Communication With Aerial Network for 6G: A Reinforcement Learning Approach

Meeting the diverse needs of user verticals requires innovative cellular architectures that can offer additional degrees of freedom to provide on-demand services. The terrestrial user-centric radio access network (UC-RAN) stands out as an excellent choice for this purpose. However, a drawback of UC-RAN is its tendency to prioritize high-priority verticals, often resulting in a subpar quality of experience for low-priority verticals. This issue is particularly exacerbated in hotspot areas. Here, to address this problem, we introduce an aerial network integrated with terrestrial UC-RAN to provide coverage to users which are not served by the terrestrial network. Furthermore, we analyze the impact of key configuration and optimization parameters (COPs), such as location, transmit power, altitude, and beamwidth of aerial base stations (ABSs) on system key performance indicators (KPIs), such as coverage, latency satisfaction, average spectral efficiency, and energy efficiency. We formulate a robust multiobjective function to maximize these KPIs without biasing toward any specific KPI(s). Finally, we propose a deep reinforcement learning optimization framework based on the state-of-the-art soft actor-critic algorithm to control ABS COPs and optimize system KPIs. Experimental evaluations demonstrate that the proposed optimization framework can converge to near-optimal solutions derived from the pseudo brute force in a few thousand epochs.

6G↗

NASA NTRS2008

Eurasian Reindeer Pastoralism in a Changing Climate: Indigenous Knowledge and NASA Remote Sensing

It is intended that Reindeer Mapper/EALAT will be able to provide reindeer herders with an efficient tool for managing the real-time movements and migrations of their herds through enabling improved efficiency in linking different members of the herder settlements or communities and providing real-time local, satellite or other data (e.g., ice melt in lakes and rivers, weather events), thus enabling real time adjustments to herd movements to avoid problems such as changing weather/climate conditions, freeze-thaw "lock-out" problems, or take advantage of availability of better pasturelands along migration routes. The system is being designed to incorporate local data to allow users to bring their own data into the system for analysis in addition to the data provided by the system itself. With the local information of the population, up to date environmental data and habitat characteristics, the system could generate maps depicting important features of interest for reindeer managers. One of the products derived from the planned Reindeer Mapper system will be a web-based graphic display that allows analysts to quickly pinpoint areas of interest such as those with large concentrations of reindeer and provide surrounding environmental information. The system could be automatically updated with near-real-time information such as hourly precipitation and snowfall rate and accumulation, daily surface and air temperatures, and vegetation cover conditions. The system could bring attention to the proximity of human and animal populations as part of the need for control response. A local GIS will bring these many layers together with several supporting models, showing only a straightforward graphic of the real-time situation in the field. Because the system proposed will be operating in the Internet environment, it should be virtually accessible from any network computers and wireless remote access from the field. The International Center for Reindeer Husbandry in Kautokeino, Norway, is providing regional and international coordination of and access to data sets and expertise, and will act as overall clearinghouse for EALAT information.

Maynard, N. G.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Personnel Data Analysis and Retrieval of Phase 1 Move To LC-39 Area

As a technology major from Jackson State University (JSU) I was called in as a summer intern at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) to work in the NASA Engineering, Control and Data Systems (NE-C) Division supporting the Spaceport Command and Control System (SCCS) at the Space Station Processing Facility (SSPF). I was given a two-part project; the first consisted of lending support relocating SCCS Computer Equipment and Project Personnel to the Launch Control Center (LCC). This task involved me using a Microsoft Office data processing tool to assist with the analysis and information management of logistics worth millions of dollars. With the assistance of two other interns, I was responsible for collecting data on equipment used, on a daily basis, by over 200 KSC employees. The many network servers, enterprise switches, desktop computers, and fiber optics had to be handled in an equally prompt and precise manner in order to ensure a minimal amount of equipment down time; which is critical in ensuring a properly secured networking environment. The second part of my project was to assist KSC in developing a more cost effective way of maintaining and taking full advantage of the functionality of some new kiosk units. Since KSC currently has no expert on the servicing and maintenance of the units, I, as a computer technology major, was given the opportunity to assess the hardware and software of the machines. The goal was to learn to establish a secure and remote environment for the kiosks; a goal highly valuing convenience by preserving valuable man-hours saved by not having to travel to each individual kiosk location. In addition, I was to leave a clear and precise plan for future users and administrators of the devices to follow.

Davis, Derrick D.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Formulation and Performance Evaluation of Epoxy Sealant Systems for Double-Shell Tank Bottom Refurbishment

The performance of epoxy sealants used in the refurbishment of double-shell tank (DST) systems requires balancing processability, thermomechanical stability, and adhesion to cementitious substrates. This study incorporates Heloxy 8 as a reactive diluent into Westlake 862 epoxy to tailor workability and cured-state properties. Rheological time-sweep analysis demonstrates that increasing the diluent content significantly reduces complex viscosity and extends workability, thereby improving pumpability and flow for large-area applications. However, the targeted 2-hour processing window is not fully achieved. Differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) confirms that all formulations cure at room temperature to glass transition temperatures ( T g ) at least 20 °C above the maximum DST operating temperature (27 °C), thereby ensuring service in the glassy regime. Dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA) reveals formulation-dependent reductions in tan delta and increases in storage modulus, indicating increasingly elastic and mechanically stable networks with diluent incorporation. Pull-off adhesion testing shows that modified formulations (70–90% Westlake epoxy) exhibit significantly higher adhesion strengths than the unmodified system. Grout cohesive failure indicates that interfacial bonding exceeds substrate strength. Collectively, these results demonstrate that controlled reactive diluent incorporation enables optimization of processing behavior, interfacial adhesion, and thermomechanical performance, supporting the suitability of the modified epoxy systems as durable sealant layers for cementitious barrier applications in hazardous waste containment infrastructure.

Differential scanning calorimetry↗

NASA NTRS1987

Integration of communications and tracking data processing simulation for space station

A simplified model of the communications network for the Communications and Tracking Data Processing System (CTDP) was developed. It was simulated by use of programs running on several on-site computers. These programs communicate with one another by means of both local area networks and direct serial connections. The domain of the model and its simulation is from Orbital Replaceable Unit (ORU) interface to Data Management Systems (DMS). The simulation was designed to allow status queries from remote entities across the DMS networks to be propagated through the model to several simulated ORU's. The ORU response is then propagated back to the remote entity which originated the request. Response times at the various levels were investigated in a multi-tasking, multi-user operating system environment. Results indicate that the effective bandwidth of the system may be too low to support expected data volume requirements under conventional operating systems. Instead, some form of embedded process control program may be required on the node computers.

Lacovara, Robert C.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Exploratory analysis of machine learning techniques in the Nevada geothermal play fairway analysis

Play fairway analysis (PFA) is commonly used to generate geothermal potential maps and guide exploration studies, with a particular focus on locating and characterizing blind geothermal systems. This study evaluates the application of machine learning techniques to PFA in the Great Basin region of Nevada. Following the evaluation of various techniques, we identified two approaches to PFA that produced promising results, 1) supervised Bayesian probabilistic neural networks to generate geothermal potential maps with confidence intervals, and 2) unsupervised principal component analysis paired with k-means clustering to generate both cluster maps to help identify spatial patterns, as well as new combined feature inputs. We applied these techniques to perform a comparative analysis between two principal sets of geological and geophysical features related to permeability and heat and a set of positive (known geothermal resources) and negative training sites (known drill sites with unsuitable geothermal conditions). We found that these methods constrain previously unrecognized feature controls on geothermal favorability, many of which are spatially organized within the extent of cluster groups and the major structural-hydrologic domains of the study area. Furthermore, we utilized exploratory unsupervised modeling to highlight spatial relationships between input data and predictive output results of our supervised modeling. As a result, we demonstrate how our models compare to the previous Nevada PFA and how the rapid insights these machine learning techniques offer may support future assessments of both known and undiscovered blind geothermal systems in the Great Basin region of Nevada and beyond.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Deep neural network improves the estimation of polygenic risk scores for breast cancer

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) estimate the genetic risk of an individual for a complex disease based on many genetic variants across the whole genome. Here, we compared a series of computational models for estimation of breast cancer PRS. A deep neural network (DNN) was found to outperform alternative machine learning techniques and established statistical algorithms, including BLUP, BayesA, and LDpred. In the test cohort with 50% prevalence, the Area Under the receiver operating characteristic Curve (AUC) were 67.4% for DNN, 64.2% for BLUP, 64.5% for BayesA, and 62.4% for LDpred. BLUP, BayesA, and LPpred all generated PRS that followed a normal distribution in the case population. However, the PRS generated by DNN in the case population followed a bimodal distribution composed of two normal distributions with distinctly different means. This suggests that DNN was able to separate the case population into a high-genetic-risk case subpopulation with an average PRS significantly higher than the control population and a normal-genetic-risk case subpopulation with an average PRS similar to the control population. This allowed DNN to achieve 18.8% recall at 90% precision in the test cohort with 50% prevalence, which can be extrapolated to 65.4% recall at 20% precision in a general population with 12% prevalence. Interpretation of the DNN model identified salient variants that were assigned insignificant p values by association studies, but were important for DNN prediction. These variants may be associated with the phenotype through nonlinear relationships.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2015

SOAREX-8 Suborbital Experiments 2015 - A New Paradigm for Small Spacecraft Communication

In 2015 NASA plans to launch a payload to 280 Km altitude on a sounding rocket from the Wallops Flight Facility. This payload will contain several novel technologies that work together to demonstrate methodologies for space sample return missions and for nanosatellite communications in general. The payload will deploy and test an Exo-Brake, which slows the payload aerodynamically, providing eventual de-orbit and recovery of future ISS samples through a Small Payload Quick Return project. In addition, this flight addresses future Mars mission entry technology, space-to-space communications using the Iridium Short Messaging Service (SMS), GPS tracking, and wireless sensors using the ZigBee protocol. SOAREX-8 is being assembled and tested at Ames Research Center (ARC) and the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) is funding sensor and communications work. Open source Arduino technology and software are used for system control. The ZigBee modules used are XBee units that connect analog sensors for temperature, air pressure and acceleration measurement wirelessly to the payload telemetry system. Our team is developing methods for power distribution and module mounting, along with software for sensor integration, data assembly and downlink. We have demonstrated relaying telemetry to the ground using the Iridium satellite constellation on a previous flight, but the upcoming flight will be the first time we integrate useful flight test data from a ZigBee wireless sensor network. Wireless sensor data will measure the aerodynamic efficacy of the Exo-Brake permitting further on orbit flight tests of improved designs. The Exo-Brake is 5 sq m in area and will be stored in a container and deployed during ascent once the payload is jettisoned from the launch vehicle. We intend to further refine the hardware and continue testing on balloon launches, future sounding rocket flights and on nanosatellite missions. The use of standards-based and open source hardware/software has allowed for this project to be completed with a very modest budget and a challenging schedule. There is a wealth of hardware and software available for both the Arduino platform and the XBee, all low-cost or open-source. Along with the Exo-Brake hardware and deployment discussion, this paper will describe in detail the system architecture emphasizing the successful use of open source hardware and software to minimize effort and cost. Testing procedures, radio frequency interference (RFI) mitigation, success criteria and expected results will also be discussed. The use of Iridium short messaging capability for space-to-space links, standards-based wireless sensor networks, and other innovative communications technology are also presented.

aerobrake↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Confidence-Based Buffer for Strategic Deconfliction with Probabilistic Operational Intent

This paper presents a methodology to expand the 95% confidence level of the elliptical geometry given by Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) operators planning to fly Beyond Visual Line of Sight (BVLOS) to any confidence level before being fed to the strategic deconfliction (SD) module, effectively increasing the separation buffer between Operational Intents (OIs). To assess the performance of this approach, it is integrated within an adaptation of the Rolling Horizon with K-Position Search volume-based strategic deconfliction approach, previously developed at NASA Ames, preventing the 4D overlapping of OIs shaped by ellipses instead of traditional blocks. Safety and efficiency metrics are evaluated through the deconfliction of four simulated package delivery route network structures across the San Francisco Metropolitan Area with increasing numbers of crossing waypoints (network complexity). Safety assessment entails the in-house creation of a metric to quantify collision occurrences per flight hour based on the frequency at which the probabilistic operational volume segments are sampled, whereas efficiency is measured using ground delay. Results indicate that the largest buffer growth occurs when increasing the confidence level beyond 99.9% and demonstrate the negative impact of network complexity on both metrics, regardless of the OI geometry. Further, the ellipse-based SD adaptation more accurately estimates temporal separation at crossings, allowing deconflicted vehicles to be closer together. It is concluded that the proposed methodology enables the desired confidence level to serve as an effective controller of buffer size.

strategic deconfliction↗